2017-04-11 P&E Agenda Attachment 1 to Item 1 Housing Needs Assessment

          o    All 'other' households.

It was assumed that the proportion of small to large households for each household type would
remain the same. For example, although the number and proportion of couple families with
children changes over time in line with the projections, it was assumed that the proportion of
couple families with children and three people usually resident compared to the proportion of
couple families with children and 4+ people usually resident would stay the same. This
assumption is supported by information from the consultation that suggests that there is little
overall change occurring in the demographic make-up of the population – and particularly that
slightly younger empty nesters are arriving to take the place of older empty nesters who are
now seeking retirement accommodation.

Given affordability issues in Noosa Shire and the lack of housing choice, it has been assumed
that there are a proportion of households living in large 3+ bedroom houses that would prefer
to live in other dwelling types and sizes if they were available. The changes in dwelling
preferences for specific household types have been based on research presented in the previous
sections of this housing needs assessment, including demographic analysis, housing market
analysis and housing affordability, and housing choice comparisons with other similar Local
Government Areas.

Three scenarios were developed with different assumptions about changes in dwelling
preferences:

       No change scenario: current dwelling mix by household type will remain as it was in 2011
        into the future to 2036.
       Low change scenario: current dwelling mix by household type will change slightly over
        time, with a shift in preference from large separate houses to other dwelling types.
       High change scenario: current dwelling mix by household type will change over time,
        with a larger shift in preference from large separate houses to other dwelling types.

This of course assumes the ability of the market to respond to the changes. The table below
(Table 53) outlines the extent in shift in preferences away from large (3+ bedroom) separate
houses for specific household types used in the scenarios. For some household types, it was
assumed that current dwelling preferences would continue and therefore these are not shown in
the table below. These were all large households – for example, couple families with at least two
children, multi-family households, group households with at least three people usually resident,
and all ‘other’ household types. A shift away from large separate houses for these household
types was considered unlikely as well as inappropriate.




Briggs & Mortar Pty Ltd | Page 152