2017-04-11 P&E Agenda Attachment 1 to Item 1 Housing Needs Assessment

Figure 62. Projected dwelling mix to meet assumed resident household needs, High
change scenario, Noosa Shire, 2011-2036




As noted, the dwelling projections use 2011 as the jump off year. Some construction of new
dwellings has occurred since 2011 in Noosa Shire. Data on the number of new dwelling
approvals has been used as an indication of this construction activity between 2011 and 2016.
Bedroom numbers were not included in approvals data, however these have been assumed
based on the approved gross floor area, with dwellings that are less than 100m2 assumed to be
small dwellings (one to two bedrooms), and dwellings 100m2 or larger assumed to be large
dwellings (3+ bedrooms).

The resulting projected additional dwelling needs are shown in Table 58 below. As can be seen,
a large proportion of dwelling approvals between 2011 and 2016 were for separate houses, and
this has resulted in, even under the no change scenario, a current estimated ‘oversupply’26 of
separate houses. Very few semi-detached dwellings were approved during the period, and
therefore the projected need for additional semi-detached dwellings at 2016 is higher under the
no change scenario than for attached dwellings. Under the no change scenario, the ‘oversupply’
of separate houses is taken up quickly, and additional separate houses are required from 2021.

For the low and high change scenario, which assume a greater shift away from detached
dwellings to other dwelling types, the ‘oversupply’ of separate houses exists for longer, and
under the high change scenario the ‘oversupply’ of separate houses grows over time.




26
     It should be noted in this section that the terms oversupply and undersupply are used to describe the
mismatch in projected need (based on the assumed preferences of particular household types for
particular dwellings under each scenario) and the current supply of dwellings at 2016.




Briggs & Mortar Pty Ltd | Page 159