2017-04-11 P&E Agenda Attachment 1 to Item 1 Housing Needs Assessment

It would seem from the above that the desirable scenario is the low scenario, where the balance
of separate houses is fairly neutral i.e. there are enough larger houses still to satisfy demand, but
a higher increase in smaller houses. Under this scenario, a small increase in larger new housing
will still be able to occur between 2016 and 2036, other than by replacement of older dwellings. A
completely neutral situation would make the best use of the limited land stocks still available, and
best meet housing needs. However the low scenario would allow some small ongoing new
growth of large houses.

The low change scenario is possibly the most realistic for the Shire given that it results in a small
oversupply in large houses. The high change scenario suggests a significant oversupply of large
houses, which may be absorbed by the market but will mean a proportion of households will still
live in unaffordable housing types.

The low change scenario suggests that the preferred mix of additional dwellings to 2036 to meet
assumed resident household needs would be as follows:

       Only a small increase in detached houses may be required, other than by replacement of
        existing older dwellings;
       This small increase in detached housing should desirably be mostly by small, not large
        dwellings (this includes those in retirement villages and manufactured home parks, and
        innovative dwelling design and materials) and the remaining subdivision lot size should
        reflect the need for small dwellings;
       There is a further need for semi-detached dwellings, mainly small, but also three or more
        bedroom to provide additional housing choice; and
       There is a significant need for small attached dwellings (one to two bedroom) to offer
        additional housing options for a growing number of small households.

6.4.3    Future Dwelling Needs for Tourists/Visitors
As well as considering the needs of residents in Noosa Shire, it is important that growth in
tourism is considered due to the potential impacts that demand for tourist accommodation can
have on the residential market. At the same time, it is important that the needs of tourism, as
Noosa Shire’s largest industry, are catered for as far as possible with the limited land stocks
available, into the future.

There are considered to be two ways in which changes in tourism may impact residential dwelling
provision:

       Firstly, growth in tourist numbers may outstrip the supply of accommodation for tourists
        and therefore this demand may ‘spill over’ into resident accommodation. With online tools
        to rent out spare rooms and whole dwellings to tourists, there are fewer barriers for
        dwelling owners to convert accommodation from rented accommodation for residents to
        short term tourist accommodation/visitor dwellings. There are two markets for
        tourist/visitor accommodation:
          o    Tourist accommodation specifically built for tourists, such as holiday resorts, motels,
               and hotels (termed ‘tourist accommodation’ in this report);
          o    Other accommodation used by visitors, including apartments, townhouses and
               houses (termed ‘visitor dwellings’ in this report).
       Secondly, it is recognised that some residents live in resort style accommodation in Noosa
        Shire. It appears that a small proportion of these dwellings may not be included in Census
        data and therefore are not considered in the resident dwellings projections modelled



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