2017-04-11 P&E Agenda Attachment 1 to Item 1 Housing Needs Assessment

Hence new stock would be required to fill the remaining need for resident dwellings. Of the 1,351
new dwellings required to meet assumed resident household needs between 2016 and 2036, the
modelling suggests this would desirably include:

       24% detached houses;
       36% semi-detached dwellings, the majority small, but some 3+ bedrooms;
       32% small attached dwellings and 42 (3%) large attached dwellings; and
       4% of dwellings of other types (cabin, caravans, dwelling attached to shop etc),

Comparison with DMaTT Capacity Analysis
It is emphasised that the purpose of the above analysis has been to establish recommendations
for dwelling diversity, rather than quantifying future resident dwelling projections themselves. The
QT projections were used as the basis of this modelling. However modelling undertaken by
Unitywater using their Demand Modeller and Tracking Tool (DMaTT) (2016) provides information
on the potential capacity for new residential development under the current Noosa Plan to meet
the needs of future residents, and this is reported here for comparison.

DMaTT suggests that the ultimate potential for further development under the Noosa Plan for
resident dwellings is some 4,667 additional dwellings post-2016 (given a range of assumptions).
This includes 1,404 detached dwellings (30%), and 3,263 attached dwellings (70%). The model
suggests that 3,235 dwellings could be provided by 2036 under the Noosa Plan, including 987
detached dwellings (31%) and 2,248 attached dwellings (69%). This additional capacity for
resident dwellings in Noosa Shire would meet the assumed need for new resident dwelling stock
if these were able to be provided during the forecasted periods.

A comparison of the modelling of capacity undertaken using the DMaTT model, and need
undertaken as outlined above in this analysis, is shown in Table 69. As the DMaTT model only
includes a split between attached and detached dwellings, semi-detached, attached and ‘other
dwelling types’ have been grouped together as attached dwellings. The results in the table have
been adjusted to note additional capacity (DMaTT) and need (Needs Assessment Model) over the
assumed provision at 2016. The comparison suggests that there is some capacity within the Shire
under the current Noosa Plan to meet the needs of the projected future resident population if the
assumptions used in the analysis play out as outlined. However, more analysis would need to be
undertaken before relying on this comparison.

The limitations of the DMaTT model have been previously outlined, and there are key differences
in the methodologies used to identify dwellings used for residents and visitors between the
DMaTT model and the Needs Assessment Model, as well as differences in the base years used in
the analyses. In addition, some assumption would need to be made about the current vacancy
rate among resident dwellings, and a future ‘healthy level’ or target level of resident dwelling
vacancies, within the Shire. The validity of the method used in the DMaTT model to identify
additional capacity was also not considered in this report. These differences and limitations
suggest the comparison should be used with caution.




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