2017-04-11 P&E Agenda Attachment 1 to Item 1 Housing Needs Assessment

Table 70. Total estimated tourist accommodation and visitor dwelling needs (including new
supply due to secondary dwellings and growth in renting out spare capacity), Noosa Shire,
2016-2036

Year                  DEMAND                        NEW SUPPLY                         ADDITIONAL
                                                                                         NEED

                  Assumed Demand         Secondary           Growth in Renting      Additional Need
                      for Tourist       Dwellings for            Out Spare                  for
                   Accommodation       Tourists/Visitors        Capacity to              Tourist
                  /Visitor Dwellings                          Tourists/Visitors     Accommodation/
                                                                                    Visitor Dwellings

2016                     -253                  0                      0                    -253

2021                      42                  140                     75                    257

2026                     -226                 280                    154                    208

2031                     -640                 419                    236                    16

2036                    -1,139                559                    323                   -257

Notes: This table shows the total need over assumed provision at 2014/15. Figures are accumulative. Negative
figures show additional demand or a shortfall (shown in red). Positive figures show additional supply or an
‘oversupply’ (shown in black).

Implications for Housing

The overall finding of the analysis is that tourism demand could have a substantial impact on
residential housing in the event of continued ongoing growth in tourism in line with that over the
last decade. Considering tourism needs is a critical component of ensuring adequate and
appropriate housing for residents – and vice versa.

The modelling undertaken is unable to predict, with any certainty, the demand for tourism
accommodation and visitor dwellings. Rather, it demonstrates the outcome that will occur if
certain assumptions are applied. The modelling has a number of limitations:

          Firstly, modelling has used a projection of the need for growth in tourism/visitor
           accommodation derived through a continuation of past trends (with consideration of
           State forecasts for other major tourism destinations (Gold Coast and Brisbane)), which are
           considered potentially unrealistic in Noosa Shire. If the annual growth in tourism is
           different – lower or higher than 2.5% each year – the outcome could change significantly.
           However, no other evidence-based projection was available.
          Secondly, it has been assumed that increased occupancy can be achieved in tourist and
           visitor accommodation. The assumptions about current and future occupancy can
           substantially impact the result of the modelling. In addition, higher occupancy rates may
           encourage the ‘conversion’ of resident dwellings into visitor dwellings, and thus reduce
           dwellings available for expected population growth. i.e. moving the issue elsewhere.
          Thirdly, the modelling relies on a number of assumptions about the future supply of
           tourist dwellings which may not occur including:
       o     Development of the remaining identified ‘tourist only’ site (at Settler’s Cove);
       o     Development of a proportion of new tourist accommodation (in line with DMaTT
             projections) in existing visitor areas such as Noosaville, Noosa Heads, Sunshine Beach
             and Peregian Beach in residential zones;




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