2017-04-11 P&E Agenda Attachment 1 to Item 1 Housing Needs Assessment

Table 28. Benchmarking of Independent Living Units against Notional Benchmarks, Noosa
Shire, 2016 - 2036

      Year      Populatio     Current    Proposed        At           At           At      Excess or   Excess or
                 n 65+       Provision   or Under     Notional     Notional     Notional   shortfall    shortfall
                  years        ILUs      Construct     Bench-       Bench-       Bench-        of        at 10%
                                          -ion(a)     mark of      mark of      mark of     existing   including
                                                         4%           8%          10%      supply at       all
                                                                                              10%      proposed
                                                                                                          units

      2016       12,140        746          569          324         647            809      -63         506

      2036       18,920        746          569          505         1009           1261     -515         54
Notes: Includes assumption of an occupancy rate per dwelling of 1.5 persons. (a) Includes 60 apartments
proposed at Noosa Domain Village

A notional benchmark of 4% of people aged 65 years and over has in the past been used to
calculate need. This notional rate was applied in the Residential Aged Care and Retirement
Housing Study undertaken for Noosa Shire in 2006 (by Humphreys Reynolds Perkins). To
determine the number of dwellings required, an occupancy rate also needs to be applied.
Assuming an average occupancy of 1.5 persons per dwelling, the required provision of retirement
units in Noosa Shire would be around 325 units in 2016. The actual current provision is well
above this requirement (at 746 units, excluding yet to be constructed units). Given that
occupancies are very high (usually full with waiting lists), this suggests that 4% is not an
applicable rate in Noosa Shire.

However, the Residential Aged Care and Retirement Housing Study also suggested that a more
realistic and sustainable future indicator was between 4 and 8%[3] given that Noosa Shire is an
attractive retirement destination. The notional benchmark of 8% is again exceeded by the current
provision.

It was recognised in the Productivity Commission Report, Caring for Older Australians, in 2011, that
retirement villages are playing an increasingly important role in accommodating older
Australians. It quoted the Retirement Village Association’s estimate of a national penetration rate
in 2010 of 5.3%, and a national penetration rate by 2025 of around 8%.

In other developed countries, like the US, over 10% of the over 65 population live in seniors’
villages. Many industry leaders believe that there is an opportunity for exponential growth in the
sector in Australia beyond natural demographic shifts and some Australian commentators have
made predictions on the basis of up to 10%[4].

It is notable that the above are nation-wide averages, and a higher penetration rate could be
assumed to occur in a retirement destination. Research suggests that up to 12% of the
population in certain regions of other developed nations with similar demographics (including
the United States) live in senior living accommodation.

Adopting the 10% notional rate, the current provision is a theoretical shortfall of 63 units (in 2016,
746 units, compared to the required benchmark of 809 units). By 2036, an additional 515 units


[3]
      Note that this suggestion is now 10 years old, in a rapidly changing field.
[4]
      Prime Trust (undated), The Demographics. Accessed 7.10.10 at www.primetrust.com.au/the-
demographics/w1/i1001182



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