Unitywater Noosa Netserv Plan - Planning Assumptions (Referred from Planning & Environment Committee dated 9 July 2024 - Item 5.1) · Report

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GENERAL COMMITTEE MEETING                                                             15 JULY 2024


   C. Note the Netserv Model is a dynamic model and can be updated should any changes occur
      to any of the inputs such as land use scenarios, planning schemes, population projections
      and Development Approvals.




REPORT
Background

The South-East Queensland Water (Distribution and Retail Restructuring) Act 2009 requires all
South East Queensland water service providers to have a Water Netserv Plan. The Netserv plan
provides strategic infrastructure planning forecasts for future water supply and sewerage services
for the next 20 years, including any infrastructure delivery needed for growth in a particular region.

Under Chapter 4B Part 1 Section 99BK of the SEQ Water (Distribution and Retail Restructuring) Act
2009, Part A of UnityWater’s Netserv Plan must be endorsed by each participating council as being
consistent with the planning assumptions for its local government area. Unity Waters Netserv Plan
planning assumptions must also be consistent with the SEQ Regional Plan. Planning assumptions
relate to population, dwellings and employment growth as well as the type, scale, location and timing
of development.

Unitywater has prepared new planning assumptions and demand forecasts for the Netserv Plan
based on Noosa Plan 2020 using the Demand Modeller and Tracking Tool (DMaTT), in collaboration
with Council's strategic planning staff. The key purpose of the DMaTT tool is to facilitate robust,
consistent and ransparent planning assumptions and demand forecasts that are supported by
evidence-based decision making and validated assumptions.

Planning assumption methodology

The DMaTT tool prepares baseline, projected and ultimate development data for dwellings,
population, floor space, employment and network demand. This information is at a property level of
detail and can be summarised and displayed at any catchment scale (i.e. locality or water supply
catchment).

The DMaTT tool has several information inputs which the tool uses to prepare forecast models. The
inputs include State and ShapingSEQ Regional Plan projections, existing landuses, dwellings and
GFA development data, development approvals, Noosa Plan 2020 zones, development provisions
and constraints, proposed planning scheme amendments, development sequencing criteria and GIS
information. Figure 1 shows conceptually how DMaTT forecast models use various information
inputs to prepare growth forecasts and Attachment A provides more detail on inputs, methodology
and forecasts.

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GENERAL COMMITTEE MEETING                                                              15 JULY 2024




                                   Figure 1

The DMATT model is dynamic and has been developed through an iterative process of developing
and configuring growth projections, development densities and the timing of development
assumptions, running the model and reviewing and testing the model outputs. Whilst the proposed
planning scheme amendments have been included as one input to the model, any changes following
public consultation will be fed back into the DMaTT model.

Within the DMaTT model, growth is automatically allocated to properties with the highest
development desirability index (DDI) until the aggregate of all property growth achieves set
population projections or GFA zone projections for each cohort year. For example, in early cohorts,
growth is allocated to properties with the highest DDI and in later cohorts, growth is allocated to
properties with the next highest DDI. The DDI is calculated at each projection year and is continually
variable to reflect changed conditions over time.

Growth projections

The planning assumptions and growth forecasts provide consistent projections for the planning and
delivery of infrastructure for both Unitywater and Council. The growth projections are in 5 year
increments with a base date of 2021 to 2056 and ultimate. Ultimate development is used as the
source of available growth and as a cap for projected dwellings and GFA, and projected property
growth cannot exceed ultimate. Whilst the projections include "ultimate" development and population
figures, this is very unlikely with most plans developing to no more than 75-80% of its capacity during
the life of the plan. However, for the purpose of infrastructure planning, the full capacity of
development allowed for under Noosa Plan 2020 needs to be planned for.

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GENERAL COMMITTEE MEETING                                                               15 JULY 2024



ShapingSEQ targets and projections
The ShapingSEQ dwelling targets have been included in the DMaTT model. The dwelling supply
target for Noosa Shire requires an additional 5000 dwellings between 2021 and 2046, equating to
200 new dwelling per year. Shaping SEQ's resident population projection is 75,700 people by
2046. It should be noted that the population projections outline in ShapingSEQ are not targets, but
projections.

Dwellings
The DMaTT model identifies capacity within Noosa Plan 2020 of 5,467 additional dwellings during
between 2021 and 2046, demonstrating Noosa Plan 2020 can meet the ShapingSEQ dwelling
targets.

Population
The DMaTT model applies an average occupancy rate consistent with census data to each dwelling
type, which provides both the resident and total (combined resident and visitor) population
projections. DMaTT projects the resident population to grow from 58,411 residents to 68,679
residents by 2046. Total population (includes visitors occupying short term accommodation) is
projected to grow from 70,863 to 81,243 people by 2046. This means overall population growth will
be 10,268 residents and 112 visitors by 2046, reflective of Council's shift in planning policy regarding
limiting the growth of short term accommodation use of dwellings.

Note: Any changes to Council's policy position regarding short term accommodation, housing and
zones will be fed back into the DMaTT model.

It should be noted DMaTT projects a much lower resident population projection than the
ShapingSEQ's projection. ShapingSEQ uses very high occupancy rates, which is inconsistent with
Noosa's average occupancy rates reported in the census.

Employment
DMaTT employment planning assumptions are calculated by levels of current and approved
development and aligns employment growth with population growth. The Employment planning
assumptions between 2021 and 2046 projects 6,707 new employees compared to ShapingSEQ's
12,100. (This variation is a direct result of the differing resident population projections outlined
above).
Link to Corporate Plan
Theme No. 2 - Liveability

Liveability encompasses housing, facilities and services, transport, health and wellbeing to enable
an inclusive, connected and vibrant community.

2.2 Fund and deliver accessible and improved, parks, open spaces, walking and cycle paths and
trails, including greening our paths and cycleways to meet contemporary needs.

2.7 Fund and deliver sustainable assets and facilities and associated services responding to the
changing needs of the community and the challenges and opportunities of the future.

Previous Council Consideration
Ordinary Meeting Minutes 16 December 2016
That Council note the report by the Infrastructure Assessment Coordinator to the Planning &
Environment Committee Meeting dated 6 December 2016 and:
A. Approve the Planning Assumptions contained in the report and provided in Attachments 1, 2 and
3 for proceeding with the new Local Government Infrastructure Plan (LGIP) under The Noosa Plan
2006;
B. Note a future report to Council may be presented to adjust population and development

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GENERAL COMMITTEE MEETING                                                              15 JULY 2024


projections in Attachment 3 if any major discrepancies are identified following completion of the staff
final review of the supporting Demand Modeller and Tracking Tool (DMaTT) Geographic Information
System (GIS) output data; and
C. Request the CEO to write to Unitywater thanking their staff in providing the DMaTT population
and development data for use in Council’s LGIP and to commit Council’s ongoing support and
assistance in future DMaTT updates.

Ordinary Meeting Minutes, 9 April 2015
That Council note the report by the Principal Strategic Planner to the Planning & Organisation
Committee meeting dated 31 March 2015 and endorse the planning assumptions contained within
the Water Netserv Plan as generated through the development and continual improvement of
Unitywater’s Demand Modelling and Tracking Tool.

Ordinary Meeting Minutes, 29 May 2014, Page 15, Item 4
That Council note the Coordinator Development Assessment’s report to the Planning and
Organisation Committee Meeting dated 20 May 2014 regarding the Utility Model and Unitywater’s
Interim Connection Policy and
A. Agree to endorse the Interim Connection Policy subject to the following amendments:
1. The future development assumptions for Noosa as identified in Part 2 of Noosa’s Priority
Infrastructure Plan shall be incorporated into the Interim Connection Policy;
2. All conservation lands in public ownership, including National Parks, foreshores and the like shall
be excluded from the Connection, Future Connection and Restricted Connection Areas given these
lands are located outside the identified Priority Infrastructure Area for Noosa and are not planned for
development;
3. Private properties that have an existing connection but which are located outside the Priority
Infrastructure Area shall be limited to property connection for a single residential dwelling only;
4. The Sewer Utility Model maps are to exclude Lots 14 & 44 RP59216 (Map 3 – Boreen Point) and
Lot 101 SP254354 (Maps 4 & 5 – Cooran) from the Connection Area;
5. The Sewer Utility Model and Water Utility Model Maps are to include Lot 366 MCH 958 at 119
Moorindil Street, Tewantin as a Restricted Sewer Area as Water & Sewerage PSP contributions
have been paid for a single residential dwelling;
6. The Water Utility Model Maps are to exclude Lot 101 SP254354 (Maps 4 & 5 – Cooran) from the
Connection Area;
7. The Water Utility Model Maps are to identify Lake Macdonald (Map 11) consistent with Lake
Cooroibah, lake Cootharaba, Lake Weyba, Noosa River; and
B. Request that Unitywater provide an amended copy of the Interim Connections Policy incorporating
the required amendments to Council prior to 1 July 2014.

Finance
There are no financial implications for this report or the preparation of the DMaTT model.

Risk & Opportunities
Council's endorsement of the planning assumptions in the Technical Note provide a consistent basis
for infrastructure planning across all infrastructure types planned and delivered by Unitywater and
Council. This ensures adequate infrastructure is delivered in a timely manner to support future
growth. The planning assumptions provide a rigorous analysis of the planning capacity of Noosa
Plan 2020, specifically around dwelling capacity, which will be reported to the state in meeting
ShapingSEQ dwelling targets.

Consultation
External Consultation - Community & Stakeholder
The DMaTT model was prepared by Unitywater in collaboration with Strategic Planning staff.

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GENERAL COMMITTEE MEETING                                                           15 JULY 2024



Internal Consultation
Departments consulted:

      Office of the CEO, Mayor &         Community Services           Corporate Services
              Councillors
         Mayor & Councillors             Director                    Director
         Chief Executive Officer         Community Development       Financial Services
         Executive Officers              Sport & Active Lifestyles   Fleet
         Community Engagement            Arts & Culture              Revenue Services
         People & Culture                Community Connection        ICT
         Governance                      Customer Experience         Procurement

                                                                     Commercial Property

       Strategy & Environment          Development & Regulation      Infrastructure Services
  X      Director                        Director                    Director
 X       Strategic Land Use Planning     Development Assessment      Infrastructure      Planning,
                                                                     Design and Delivery
         Economic Development &          Local Laws                  Civil and Asset operations
         Destination Management
         Environmental Services          Environmental Health        Waste
         Innovation & Digital Hub        Building & Plumbing         Building & Facilities
                                         Property / Permits          Disaster Management