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                                  Planning & Environment Committee Agenda
                                                                9 July 2019
                                                     Item 10 - Attachment 1




Noosa Shire Council Coastal Hazards
 Risk, Vulnerability and Adaptation
            Assessment
       Coastal Hazard Mapping Refinement




              www.qcoast2100.com.au
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Section 2

26th April 2018

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mm mi ReOeNe    LGAQ           ase Government     ‘x7 BMT WBM
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Section 3

Document Control Sheet
                                                 Document:               R.B22613.002.04.NSC_CHAP_Mapping.d
 BMT WBM Pty Ltd                                                         ocx
 Level 8, 200 Creek Street
 Brisbane Qld 4000                               Title:                  Noosa Shire Council Coastal Hazard
 Australia                                                               Mapping
 PO Box 203, Spring Hill 4004
                                                 Project Manager:        Matthew Barnes
 Tel: +61 7 3831 6744
 Fax: + 61 7 3832 3627                           Author:                 Matthew Barnes
 ABN 54 010 830 421                              Client:                 Noosa Shire Council
 www.bmtwbm.com.au                               Client Contact:         Grant Hinner
                                                 Client Reference:
 Synopsis:



REVISION/CHECKING HISTORY
 Revision Number           Date                   Checked by                            Issued by
 0                         3 August 2017          LCM                                   MPB
 1                         15 January 2018        LCM                                   MPB
 2                         23 February            LCM                                   MPB
                           2018
 3                         Unknown                LCM                                   MPB
 4                         26 April 2018          LCM                                   MPB




DISTRIBUTION
 Destination                                                             Revision
                                     0       1        2      3       4      5       6         7     8   9     10
 Noosa Shire Council              PDF      PDF      PDF    PDF     PDF
 BMT WBM File                     PDF      PDF      PDF    PDF     PDF
 BMT WBM Library                  PDF      PDF      PDF    PDF     PDF




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Section 4

Noosa Shire Council Coastal Hazard Mapping                                                                  I
Executive Summary




Executive Summary
Priority gap studies identified by the Noosa Shire Council Coastal Hazard Adaptation Plan (CHAP) Scoping
Report (BMT WBM 2017) have been completed, namely:

• Development of storm tide hazard mapping for the CHAP planning horizons (present-day, 2040, 2070
  and 2100); and

• Coastal erosion prone area assessment and mapping for the CHAP planning horizons.

BMT WBM (2017) discusses the three ‘categories’ of storm tide hazard that are relevant to the region:

(1)   ‘Open coast storm tide’ which can lead to inundation of nearshore areas adjacent to beaches. For
      these locations the combination of tide, surge and wave breaking processes contribute to the
      observed water level.

(2)   ‘Lower Noosa River catchment storm tide’ which can lead to flooding of areas within the tidal extent of
      the lower river system. For these locations and in the absence of significant rainfall and catchment
      flooding, the combination of tide and surge contribute to the observed water level.

(3)   ‘Coincident catchment flooding and storm tide’ which can lead to flooding of areas within the tidal
      extent of the lower river system. For these locations the combination of river flow, tide and surge
      contribute to the observed water level.

Hazard areas related to each of the above storm tide categories have been developed using a combination
of existing information and inundation modelling tools (Aurecon 2013; WMA Water 2017a; WMA Water
2017b). For land adjacent to the lower Noosa River both inundation depth and velocity hazard information
has been determined.

In accordance with the Queensland Government Coastal Hazard Technical Guide (DEHP, 2013), the open
coast calculated erosion distance has been refined through consideration of the design storm conditions,
dune slumping, long term recession and the shoreline response to sea-level rise. In addition, and for
consistency with the State-defined erosion prone areas, the permanent tidal inundation due to sea-level rise
hazard area has also been established.

These hazard maps will be used to support future consultation with the community and a risk assessment
process; in combination, these will then inform the consequences of these hazards to assets and future
strategic planning in response.




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Section 5

Noosa Shire Council Coastal Hazard Mapping                                        II
Contents




Contents
Executive Summary                                                                 i
1     Background                                                                 1
      1.1    Noosa Shire Climate Change Adaptation Plan                           1
      1.2    QCoast2100 Program                                                   1
      1.3    Coastal Hazard Adaptation Plan Scoping Study                         2
2     Storm Tide Hazard Assessment                                               4
      2.1    Background                                                           4
      2.2    Open Coast & Lower Noosa River Storm Tide Inundation                 5
             2.2.1     Open Coast Storm Tide Assessment                           6
             2.2.2     Lower Noosa River Storm Tide Assessment                    7
      2.3    Coincident Catchment Flooding & Storm Tide                           8
3     Erosion Prone Area Assessment                                              9
      3.1    Background                                                           9
             3.1.1     Erosion Prone Area Definition & Mapping                    9
      3.2    Calculated Erosion Distance Assessment                              10
             3.2.1     Open Coast Calculated Erosion Distance Formula            10
             3.2.1.1   Application of the Calculated Erosion Distance Formula    13
      3.3    Planning Period (N)                                                 14
      3.4    Rate of Long Term Erosion (R)                                       14
      3.5    Storm Erosion (C)                                                   17
             3.5.1     Design Event Erosion Assessment                           17
             3.5.1.1   Background Information and Datasets                       17
             3.5.1.2   Design Erosion Events Modelling Results                   18
             3.5.1.3   Wave Runup & Overtopping Potential                        21
      3.6    Shoreline Response to Sea Level Rise (S)                            23
             3.6.1     Background Information                                    23
             3.6.2     Equilibrium Profile (Bruun Rule) Concept                  23
             3.6.3     Shoreline Response to Sea Level Rise Assessment Results   25
      3.7    Factor of Safety (F)                                                28
      3.8    Dune Slumping (D)                                                   28
      3.9    Assessment Results                                                  31
4     Permanent Inundation due to Sea Level Rise                                 33
      4.1    Hazard Assessment Approach                                          33



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Section 6

Noosa Shire Council Coastal Hazard Mapping                                                        III
Contents




      4.2    Assessment Results                                                                   33
5     Hazard Classification                                                                      34
      5.1    Introduction                                                                         34
      5.2    Storm Tide inundation                                                                34
      5.3    Permanent Inundation from Sea-level Rise                                             34
      5.4    Coastal Erosion                                                                      34
6     References                                                                                 36
Appendix A         Open Coast & Lower Noosa River Storm Tide Hazard Extent                       A-1
Appendix B         Coincident Catchment Flooding & Storm Tide Hazard Extent                      B-1
Appendix C         Storm Erosion Estimates                                                       C-1
Appendix D         Calculated Erosion Distance Hazard Extent                                     D-1
Appendix E         Permanent Inundation due to Sea-Level Rise Extent                             E-1

List of Figures
Figure 1-1      QCoast2100 Phases                                                                  2
Figure 2-1      100 year ARI surge plus tide boundary condition applied at the entrance to the
                Noosa River (Aurecon 2013)                                                         7
Figure 3-1      Erosion Assessment Locations                                                      12
Figure 3-2      Conceptual Illustration of the Open Coast Calculated Erosion Distance
                Formula                                                                           14
Figure 3-3      Example Design Erosion Setback at North Shore Beach (ETA 626 shown in
                Figure 3-1)                                                                       19
Figure 3-4      Bruun (1962) Concept of Recession due to Sea Level Rise                           24
Figure 3-5      Schematic Beach/Dune Cross Section Showing Pre and Post Erosion Dune
                Face and Dune Stability Profiles (from DECCW, 2010; after Nielsen et al.,
                1992)                                                                             29
Figure 5-1      Flood Hazard Classification and Curves2                                           35
Figure C-1      Storm Erosion Estimate: ETA 578 (top), ETA 582 (middle) and ETA 596
                (bottom)                                                                         C-2
Figure C-2      Storm Erosion Estimate: ETA 602 (top), ETA 621.2 (middle) and ETA 622
                (bottom)                                                                         C-3
Figure C-3      Storm Erosion Estimate: ETA 626 (top), ETA 628 (middle) and ETA 630
                (bottom)                                                                         C-4
Figure C-4      Storm Erosion Estimate: ETA 632 (top), ETA 634 (middle) and ETA 636
                (bottom)                                                                         C-5
Figure C-5      Storm Erosion Estimate: ETA 638 (top), ETA 636 (middle) and ETA 642
                (bottom)                                                                         C-6




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Section 7

Noosa Shire Council Coastal Hazard Mapping                                               IV
Contents




Figure C-6      Storm Erosion Estimate: ETA 638 (top), ETA 642 (middle) and ETA 646
                (bottom)                                                                C-7
Figure C-7      Storm Erosion Estimate: ETA 650 (top), ETA 654 (middle) and ETA 658
                (bottom)                                                                C-8
Figure C-8      Storm Erosion Estimate: ETA 662 (top), ETA 666 (middle) and ETA 670
                (bottom)                                                                C-9
Figure C-9      Storm Erosion Estimate: ETA 674 (top) and ETA 678 (bottom)             C-10



List of Tables
Table 2-1       Summary of CHAP Storm Tide Hazard Mapping Approach                       5
Table 2-2       100 year ARI Open Coast Storm Tide Levels (mAHD)                         6
Table 3-1       Summary of Long Term Recession Results (m)                              16
Table 3-2       Summary of Design Storm Erosion Assessment Results                      20
Table 3-3       Summary of Wave Runup & Overtopping Potential                           22
Table 3-4       Summary of Response to Sea Level Rise Assessment Results                27
Table 3-5       Summary of Dune Slumping Assessment Results                             30
Table 3-6       Beach Compartment Summary of Open Coast Calculated Erosion Distances    32
Table 4-1       Permanent inundation due to Sea Level Rise mapping assumptions          33
Table 5-1       Flood Hazard Classification Description                                 35




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Section 8

Noosa Shire Council Coastal Hazard Mapping                                                                1
Background




1        Background
1.1      Noosa Shire Climate Change Adaptation Plan
         To help the Noosa Shire adapt to potential effects of climate change over time, Noosa Council is
         responding to potential climate change risks by undertaking a two-year project to develop a Climate
         Change Adaptation Plan (CCAP) to build adaptive capacity within Council and across the
         community.

         The core objectives for the CCAP are to:

         • Improve Noosa Council and the community’s understanding of current & future risks from
           coastal hazards and how they might change through time as a result of climate change;

         • Consult with the community clearly and sensitively throughout key stages of the project so the
           community understands the implications and contributes to the decision making;

         • Identify what actions are required to avoid, reduce or adapt to these risks to people, property,
             assets and the environment;

         • Provide mapping & visual products and deliverables that are useful for a range of purposes
           across Council departments and functions and within the community (e.g. planning scheme,
             asset management, community awareness, disaster management and financial planning); and

         • Provide direction for a coordinated approach for Council and the community to adapt to climate
             change and coastal hazards.

         The coastal hazards component of the CCAP will be informed by the development of a Coastal
         Hazards Adaptation Plan (CHAP). The CHAP is funded by a grant agreement with the Local
         Government Association of Queensland (LGAQ), under the Queensland Department of
         Environment and Heritage Protection’s (DEHP) QCoast2100 initiative. Coastal Hazard Mapping, the
         subject of this report, is required to understand the extent of current and future coastal hazard
         areas so that potentially impacted assets and values can be identified.

1.2      QCoast2100 Program
         The QCoast2100 program is governed by a Board comprising members from the LGAQ, DEHP and
         Department of Infrastructure, Local Government and Planning (DILGP). The program has been
         designed to assist Queensland coastal local governments with funding and technical support to
         progress the preparation of plans and strategies to address climate change related coastal hazard
         risks. The program is intended to guide decision-making across key areas of local government
         planning and operations, including:

         • Corporate and operational planning and financial planning;

         • Land use planning and development assessment;

         • Infrastructure planning and management including roads, stormwater and foreshores;

         • Asset management and planning including nature conservation, recreation, cultural heritage
             values and other public amenities;



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Section 9

Noosa Shire Council Coastal Hazard Mapping                                                                2
Background




         • Community planning; and

         • Emergency management.

         The QCoast2100 Minimum Standards & Guidelines (MS&G) provide guidance to local government
         wishing to prepare a CHAP. The guidelines set minimum requirements that are to be included in a
         CHAP as well as providing information on leading practices to facilitate continuous improvement.
         The minimum standards set a benchmark for undertaking such studies in Queensland so that
         coastal hazard adaptation decision-making is approached in a consistent and systematic manner.
         The MS&G are structured to address the key phases of a CHAP which are illustrated in Figure 1-1.
         This report is a key output of Phase 3 – the identification of areas exposed to current and future
         coastal hazards.




                                           Figure 1-1    QCoast2100 Phases


         This report and mapping are just one tool that will be used to support future consultation with the
         community and a risk assessment process; in combination, these will then inform the
         consequences of these hazards to assets and future strategic planning in response.

1.3      Coastal Hazard Adaptation Plan Scoping Study
         A review of existing information relevant to the Noosa CHAP has been completed (BMT WBM
         2017). The review identified the necessary additional studies to address key knowledge gaps and
         establish a basis for a risk assessment process in accordance with the Australian Standard for Risk
         Management (AS/NZS ISO 31000:2009).

         Regarding coastal hazard mapping, two priority gap studies were identified:




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Section 10

Noosa Shire Council Coastal Hazard Mapping                                                                3
Background




         (1)    Developing storm tide hazard mapping for the planning horizons of interest

         (2)    Coastal erosion prone area assessment and mapping

         The planning horizons agreed for the Noosa CHAP are present-day, 2040, 2070 and 2100 and
         therefore hazard mapping representative of these years is required. The CHAP adopts the 100
         year Average Recurrence Interval (ARI) as the base planning horizon for land use planning
         decision making, consistent with Queensland Government approach to assessing future climate
         coastal hazards. It is noted that climate change considerations for coastal engineering design
         should follow best practice guidelines (e.g. Harper 2012, 2017) and relevant standards and in some
         cases may require consideration of different planning horizons, likelihoods and climate change
         assumptions for internal purposes and progressive planning, therefore additional hazard maps
         have been produced.

         The Queensland Flood Commission of Inquiry for the Brisbane floods recommended consideration
         be given to a wide range of flood severities up to the probable maximum flood for considering flood
         risk. A similar approach has been undertaken for the CHAP, with a range of coastal hazard event
         probabilities being modelled. However to ensure this report remains concise, only the 1% AEP
         (approximately 100 ARI) are discussed.

         The assessments and methods for developing the necessary mapping products for the Noosa
         CHAP are described in Chapter 2 and Chapter 3 of this report. Plans illustrating the coastal hazard
         mapping results are presented in the Appendices.




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Section 11

Noosa Shire Council Coastal Hazard Mapping                                                                    4
Storm Tide Hazard Assessment




2        Storm Tide Hazard Assessment
2.1      Background
         The Noosa CHAP Scoping Study Report (BMT WBM 2017) discusses the three ‘categories’ of
         storm tide hazard that have been considered as part of previous local government scale
         assessments:

         (1)    ‘Open coast storm tide’ which can lead to inundation of nearshore areas adjacent to
                beaches. For these locations the combination of tide, surge and wave breaking processes
                contribute to the observed water level.

         (2)    ‘Lower Noosa River catchment storm tide’ which can lead to flooding of areas within the tidal
                extent of the lower river system. For these locations and in the absence of significant rainfall
                and catchment flooding, the combination of tide and surge contribute to the observed water
                level.

         (3)    ‘Coincident catchment flooding and storm tide’ which can lead to flooding of areas within the
                tidal extent of the lower river system. For these locations the combination of river flow, tide
                and surge contribute to the observed water level.

         Aurecon (2013) assessed ‘storm tide only’ (i.e. categories 1 and 2 above) for the present-day and
         2100 planning horizons and range of exceedance probabilities. The other planning horizons
         relevant to the CHAP (2040 and 2070) were not previously assessed. The method for producing
         outputs for the other planning horizons of interest is summarised in Table 2-1 and further described
         in Section 2.2. Table 2-1 also indicates the sea-level rise (SLR) allowance adopted for the Noosa
         CHAP. Further details regarding the Noosa CHAP SLR assumptions are provided in BMT WBM
         (2017).

         The likelihood of peak storm tide conditions coinciding with peak catchment flooding (storm tide
         category 3) within the lower Noosa River is expected to be a rare event, that whilst valuable to
         understand, would be an extreme event and not preferred as a basis for making planning
         decisions. The coincident rainfall, river flooding and storm tide hazard was recently assessed by
         WMA Water (2017a) for the present-day and 2100 planning horizons. The 2040 and 2070 planning
         horizons were subsequently assessed to provide the additional hazard information required for the
         CHAP (WMA Water 2017b).




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Section 12

Noosa Shire Council Coastal Hazard Mapping                                                                    5
Storm Tide Hazard Assessment




                      Table 2-1      Summary of CHAP Storm Tide Hazard Mapping Approach

           Mapping product            Present-day           2040              2070               2100
           Open coast storm            Developed         Developed         Developed           Developed
           tide inundation           using present-    using present-    using present-        using 2100
                                     day open coast    day open coast    day open coast        open coast
                                     levels reported   levels + 0.2 m    levels + 0.5 m     levels reported
                                       by Aurecon       SLR reported      SLR reported         by Aurecon
                                       (2013) and        by Aurecon        by Aurecon        (2013) (which
                                         bathtub         (2013) and        (2013) and        included 0.8m
                                        mapping            bathtub           bathtub            SLR) and
                                                          mapping           mapping              bathtub
                                                                                                mapping
           Lower Noosa River           Previously         Developed         Developed         Previously
           catchment storm tide       completed by      using existing    using existing     completed by
           inundation                Aurecon (2013)    TUFLOW model      TUFLOW model       Aurecon (2013)
                                                        + 0.2 m SLR       + 0.5 m SLR       (which included
                                                          boundary          boundary          0.8m SLR)
                                                           condition         condition
                                                         adjustments       adjustments
           Coincident Noosa           Previously         Previously        Previously         Previously
           River flooding and        completed by       completed by      completed by       completed by
           storm tide conditions     (WMA Water,        (WMA Water,       (WMA Water,        (WMA Water,
                                       2017a)             2017b)            2017b)             2017a)




2.2      Open Coast & Lower Noosa River Storm Tide Inundation
         The open coast and lower Noosa River storm tide hazard depth and extent for the CHAP planning
         horizons are presented in Appendix A. The method for deriving the ‘storm tide only’ coastal hazard
         area is described in this section.

         Current climate open coast storm tide levels for the Noosa local government area are reported in
         Aurecon (2013). For return periods up to the 100 year ARI, the levels are based on the following:

         • Analysis of tidal residual data recorded at Mooloolaba Harbour Entrance by fitting a Generalised
           Extreme Value (GEV) distribution to the data.

         • Generation of a synthetic record of surge plus tide level by independent sampling of the tidal
           residual distribution and a derived high tide distribution (based on published tidal constituent
             data for Mooloolaba).

         • Analysis of the synthetic surge plus tide record at Mooloolaba by fitting a GEV distribution to the
           data.

         • Extrapolation of the surge plus tide levels at Mooloolaba to other Sunshine Coast locations with
           reference to the spatial distribution of storm tide levels reported by Connell Wagner (2005) and
             Hardy et al. (2004).

         • An allowance for wave setup (discussed further below)




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Section 13

Noosa Shire Council Coastal Hazard Mapping                                                                 6
Storm Tide Hazard Assessment




         Future climate 2100 scenarios were also reported by Aurecon (2013). These assessments simply
         added a 0.8 m SLR allowance to the current climate design water levels. This approach has been
         followed, using the SLR allowances summarised in Table 2-1, to estimate the 2040 and 2070 open
         coast 100 year ARI water levels. Current climate and future climate open coast design water levels
         adopted for the Noosa CHAP storm tide hazard mapping are provided in Table 2-2.

                        Table 2-2     100 year ARI Open Coast Storm Tide Levels (mAHD)

           Location                      Current             2040             2070               2100
           Peregian Beach                  2.97              3.17             3.47               3.77
           Marcus Beach                    3.01              3.21             3.51               3.81
           Sunshine Beach                  3.17              3.37             3.67               3.97
           Noosa Head                      3.17              3.37             3.67               3.97
           Noosa Main Beach                2.62              2.82             3.12               3.42
           Noosa River Entrance*           1.63              1.83             2.13               2.43
           Noosa North Shore               2.73              2.93             3.23               3.53
           Teewah Beach                    3.18              3.38             3.68               3.98

         *wave setup not included within river entrance

         The current and 2100 climate design water levels reported by Aurecon (2013) and reproduced in
         Table 2-2 included an allowance for wave setup; however, it is noted that Aurecon (2013) did not
         provide details of how wave setup was derived other than to reference the NDRP Storm Tide
         Hazard Interpolation Study (GHD 2014). The NDRP study adopted wave setup estimates reported
         by Hardy et al. (2004), noting that this study only considered surge and wave conditions generated
         by tropical cyclone events. For the Sunshine Coast region, design water level and wave statistics
         are likely to be dominated by non-cyclonic weather systems up to at least the 100 year ARI.
         Consequently, there is some concern that the wave setup allowances reported by Aurecon (2013)
         are not representative of actual wave conditions that occur along the Sunshine Coast, particularly
         for return periods up to and including the 100 year ARI. For storm erosion hazard assessment
         discussed in Section 3.5, the wave setup contribution to the design water level at the shoreline has
         been estimated following an alternative approach.

2.2.1    Open Coast Storm Tide Assessment
         Open coast storm tide hazard mapping has been produced using a ‘bathtub’ mapping approach.
         The mapping methodology involved extrapolating the point location output summarised in Table
         2-2 across the adjacent coastal land. The open coast shoreline throughout the Noosa region is
         characterised by either an established dune system or rocky headland. These natural features
         provide the adjacent land areas a degree of protection from open coast storm tide inundation and
         therefore this hazard area is confined to a relatively narrow strip along open coast beaches. The
         influence of storm tide conditions on catchment flooding (i.e. land adjacent to the lower Noosa
         River) has been mapped separately and is described in Section 2.2.2.

         It is noted that the water levels in Table 2-2 are considered representative of the ‘sustained peak’
         level during a storm tide event. These levels do not account for wave runup, the intermittent


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Section 14

Noosa Shire Council Coastal Hazard Mapping                                                                 7
Storm Tide Hazard Assessment




         process of advancement and retreat of the instantaneous shoreline position on a timescale that is
         of the order of the incoming wave period (~12 s for large swell conditions). A preliminary wave
         runup assessment is presented in Section 3.5.1.3, noting that wave runup and overtopping are key
         considerations when designing coastal structures and may need further assessment during the
         options analysis stage of the Noosa CHAP.

2.2.2    Lower Noosa River Storm Tide Assessment
         Aurecon (2013) produced storm tide hazard mapping throughout the tidal extent of the Noosa River
         catchment using inundation modelling techniques. In summary, this involved the application of
         representative ‘surge plus tide’ boundary conditions at the entrance to the Noosa River and
         simulation of the resulting lower river floodplain inundation. The current climate 100 year ARI
         boundary condition is shown in Figure 2-1.




          Figure 2-1    100 year ARI surge plus tide boundary condition applied at the entrance to the
                                          Noosa River (Aurecon 2013)


         Future climate 2100 scenarios involved adding a 0.8 m SLR allowance offset to the boundary
         condition shown in Figure 2-1. In addition, a morphological response to SLR across the lower
         Noosa River and flood tide delta was represented by raising the bathymetry elevation by an
         amount equivalent to the SLR allowance. Full details of the modelling approach are provided in
         Aurecon (2013).

         To develop lower Noosa River storm tide mapping for the additional 2040 and 2070 planning
         horizons required by the CHAP, the modelling approach described by Aurecon (2013) has been
         adopted. This simply involved application of the existing inundation modelling tools with surge plus
         tide and bathymetry boundary condition adjustments using the methodology described in Aurecon
         (2013). The SLR assumptions for each planning horizon are summarised in Table 2-1.

         It is noted that the assessment mapping presented in Appendix A classify the inundation hazard in
         terms of depth only. Other hazard definition information, such as inundation velocity, is also
         available to the Noosa CHAP and may be considered as part of the risk and vulnerability
         assessment (QCoast2100 Phase 5).



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Section 15

Noosa Shire Council Coastal Hazard Mapping                                                               8
Storm Tide Hazard Assessment




2.3      Coincident Catchment Flooding & Storm Tide
         The coincident Noosa River catchment flooding and storm tide hazard depth and extent for the
         CHAP planning horizons are presented in Appendix B. As described in Section 2.1, coincident
         rainfall river flooding and storm tide hazard was recently assessed by WMA Water (2017a; 2017b).
         Their report describes the 1 in 100 AEP as a combination of flow, rainfall and tide conditions, of
         which the probability of occurrence is unknown, but likely to be rarer than the 1 in 100 AEP. The
         maps provided in Appendix B are simply a presentation of the WMA Water peak inundation depth
         assessment results. As noted above, inundation velocity information is also available and may be
         used to inform the Noosa CHAP risk and vulnerability assessment.




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Section 16

Noosa Shire Council Coastal Hazard Mapping                                                                  9
Erosion Prone Area Assessment




3        Erosion Prone Area Assessment
3.1      Background
         These assessments have been undertaken with the key objective of developing maps suitable for
         the Noosa CHAP and to better understand the erosion hazard and associated risk to assets and
         values within the local government area in order to progress consultation with the community about
         the consequences of these risks. In addition to the CHAP, the outcomes of these assessments
         may be used to support an amendment to the State-declared erosion prone area plans, if desired.
         Details of the State-declared erosion prone areas for Noosa are provided in BMT WBM (2017).

3.1.1    Erosion Prone Area Definition & Mapping
         The State Erosion Prone Area plans are intended to assist development assessment and to inform
         the preparation of planning instruments, such as planning schemes and regional plans under the
         Planning Act 2016.

         Erosion prone areas have been declared for all coastal local government areas in Queensland. The
         Noosa Shire Plan NOS3A is available online via DEHP website:

         https://www.ehp.qld.gov.au/coastal/development/assessment/pdf/noosa-erosion-prone-area-
         plan.pdf

         The EPAs apply to land subject to inundation by the Highest Astronomical Tide (HAT) by the year
         2100 or at risk from sea erosion. On land adjacent to tidal water the EPA is defined by whichever of
         the following methods gives the greatest width:

         (1)    40 m buffer from the present-day HAT contour

         (2)    Calculated erosion distance shown in Table 1 of the statutory plan

         (3)    Permanent inundation due to SLR in 2100 (defined by present-day HAT plus 0.8 m).

         The 40 m buffer from present-day HAT (component 1) generally applies within estuarine areas not
         exposed to open coast processes. This approximate method is intended to account for the
         migration of channels within tidal waterways with natural (undeveloped) shorelines.

         The calculated erosion distance (component 2) is intended to cater for the potential loss of land for
         open coast locations. Both short term (storm-related) and longer term (gradual) trends are included
         in the assessment together with an allowance for potential sea level rise associated with climate
         change. Provision is also included for a factor of safety on the estimates and an allowance made
         for slumping of the dune scarp that is often observed after significant storm erosion has occurred.
         For the Noosa CHAP this component has been reassessed and is discussed further in Section 3.2.

         The Noosa Shire Plan NOS3A (NOS3A, Table 1) provides a summary of the calculated erosion
         distance for open coast locations. Consideration of the potential presence of bedrock is included
         however it is noted that the State plans do not capture all local-scale natural and/or manmade
         features that may limit the landward extent of shoreline erosion.

         The permanent inundation due to SLR (component 3) represents the HAT coastline (or elevation
         contour) in 2100 in the absence of any adaptation response to treat the risk, such as filling land to


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Section 17

Noosa Shire Council Coastal Hazard Mapping                                                                  10
Erosion Prone Area Assessment




         an elevation above the threshold water level. This component has also been reassessed for the
         planning horizons relevant to the Noosa CHAP (see Chapter 4).

         The EPAs determined by the State define a hazard extent at a single specified planning horizon
         (the year 2100) and probability (representative 100 year ARI). The erosion prone areas are
         therefore useful for ‘first-pass risk screening’ however do not provide sufficient information
         regarding likelihood and consequence to undertake a more detailed risk assessment in accordance
         AS/NZS ISO 31000:2009, the SPP or other State guideline documents (such as the QCoast 2100
         Minimum Standards and Guidelines). This issue has been addressed through the erosion prone
         area hazard assessments described in this Chapter.

3.2      Calculated Erosion Distance Assessment
         The potential coastal erosion hazard throughout the study area arises from a combination of:

         • The physical processes that are causing (or threatening to cause) erosion;

         • The assets and values potentially affected by the erosion; and

         • The timeframe over which the threat may act upon the assets and values.

         In order to assess the erosion hazard for the open coast beaches throughout the Noosa region, it is
         necessary to understand which areas are presently within the short term storm erosion zone and
         areas that may become threatened in the future.

         To effectively assess the coastal erosion hazard a vulnerable zone is typically determined for a
         specific planning period. The erosion vulnerability zone should include the following components,
         consistent with the Queensland Government Coastal Hazard Technical Guide (DEHP, 2013):

         • Short term storm erosion;

         • Continuation of the long term historical shoreline position trend (if this can be identified);

         • Cyclic morphological change observed at river and creek mouths (not a significant issue at this
           location due to training of the southern shoreline of Noosa River); and

         • Additional future effects of climate change induced sea level rise.

         The selected planning period influences:

         • The design event characteristics adopted for the short term erosion assessment;

         • The duration that the long term erosion component is applied; and

         • The choice of an appropriate sea level rise projection.

3.2.1    Open Coast Calculated Erosion Distance Formula
         The open coast erosion hazard areas are determined to cater for potential erosion of the dune
         system over a specified planning period. Both short term (storm-related) and longer term (gradual)
         trends are included in the assessment together with an allowance for potential sea level rise
         associated with climate change. Provision is also included for a factor of safety on the estimates
         and an allowance made for slumping of the dune scarp that is often observed after significant storm



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Section 18

Noosa Shire Council Coastal Hazard Mapping                                                                  11
Erosion Prone Area Assessment




         erosion has occurred. The following relationship was originally used by the former Beach
         Protection Authority (BPA) for determining erosion hazard area widths throughout Queensland.
         This formula continues to be recognised by DEHP (2013) as a reasonable method of assessing the
         erosion hazard on sandy coastlines.

         𝐸 = [(𝑁 × 𝑅 ) + 𝐶 + 𝑆] × (1 + 𝐹) + 𝐷
         Equation 3-1

         Where     E = Calculated erosion distance or width (metres)
                   N = planning period (years)
                   R = rate of long term erosion (metres per year)
                   C = short term erosion from the design storm event (metres)
                   S = erosion due to sea level rise (metres)
                   F = factor of safety
                   D = dune scarp component

         In the assessments for the Noosa region described in this Section, the values of C, S and D have
         been determined for individual beach compartments using existing beach profile survey data, site
         specific modelling and SLR projections adopted for the CHAP (refer BMT WBM 2017). As
         described below in Section 3.4, insufficient data is available to accurately assess R on an individual
         beach basis. Previous studies and the limited data that is available suggests that most beaches
         within the region are ‘dynamically stable’ and are not displaying trends of long term recession that
         can be linked to a deficit in sand supply. The notable exceptions are Noosa Main Beach and Dog
         Beach, where coastal structures and an ongoing sand replenishment program (via back-passing
         using a sand shifter or dredging) are used to maintain the beach profile. The localised erosion
         issues at Dog Beach are related to channel migration (rather than sand supply) and appear to be
         linked to the dynamic morphology of the Noosa River entrance. For the CHAP, the potential for
         channel migration is accounted for through the State-defined EPA erosion component 1 (i.e. 40 m
         buffer on present-day HAT). This buffer is applied consistently across all planning horizons.

         The open coast calculated erosion distance has been assessed at 25 existing beach and offshore
         profile locations indicated in Figure 3-1. These monitoring locations, commonly known as ‘ETA’
         profiles, were originally established by the former BPA and surveyed at semi-regular intervals
         between 1970s and early 2000s. The assessments described in this Chapter focus on the locations
         shown in Figure 3-1.




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Section 19

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 Filepath: 1:\B22613.i.mbp.Noosa_CHAS\DRG\COA_007_170802_ETA_Survey_Line_Locations.wor

Section 20

Noosa Shire Council Coastal Hazard Mapping                                                                  13
Erosion Prone Area Assessment




3.2.1.1 Application of the Calculated Erosion Distance Formula
         DEHP (2013) guidelines require that the open coast erosion hazard area distance is measured
         landward from the seaward toe of the frontal dune. This is normally approximated by the seaward
         limit of terrestrial vegetation or, where this cannot be determined, the level of present day HAT. The
         coastal zone is highly dynamic and significant fluctuations can occur in the dune profile and
         correspondingly the location of the seaward toe of the frontal dune. At some locations and times
         there can be a large height (and therefore volume) difference between the higher hind dune areas
         and the low foredunes which can be quite wide.

         The calculation of the short term erosion component (C) is volumetric based and where there is a
         broad low foredune, the calculated distance from the seaward toe of that dune can be large. The
         adopted formula for calculating the overall erosion hazard area width also includes a factor of
         safety that is applied to the short term erosion component (C). In situations with a broad low frontal
         dune, this can lead to an unrealistic overestimation of the width of the short term erosion threat as
         measured from the seaward toe of the frontal dune. Accordingly, for the present study, this short
         term erosion component has been split into two sections (C1 and C2) with the revised calculated
         erosion distance formula as follows:

         𝐸 = [(𝑁 × 𝑅 ) + 𝐶1 + 𝑆] × (1 + 𝐹) + 𝐷 + 𝐶2
         Equation 3-2

         Where     C1 = short term erosion from the design storm event, measured from the location where
                   the design water level intersects the pre-storm beach profile (metres)

                   C2 = distance from the seaward toe of the frontal dune to the location where the design
                   water level intersects the pre-storm initial beach profile (metres)

         The modified calculated erosion distance formula is illustrated conceptually in Figure 3-2 using an
         example beach profile. The C1 term in the current study is the modelled short term erosion setback
         distance based on the volume eroded from the main pre-storm dune above the design water level.
         This is the primary short term erosion component to which the factor of safety is applied. The C2
         term is the distance between the seaward toe of the frontal dune and the location where the design
         water level intersects the pre-storm profile. This covers the short term erosion of the low foredune
         area to which the factor of safety is not applied. As outlined above, this minimises the potential
         overestimation of the total short term erosion component when using the standard formula on
         beaches with a broad low dune terrace. The approach for assessing short term erosion is
         discussed further in Section 3.5.

         For the present study, the Department of Natural Resources and Mines (DNRM) state coastline
         definition has been used to estimate the frontal dune toe position along Noosa open coast beaches
         for erosion hazard area assessment and mapping purposes. The DNRM coastline was digitised
         manually, guided by several references including aerial imagery and HAT contours generated from
         LiDAR survey data. A review of the DNRM coastline definition along Noosa beaches indicates that
         digitised coastline is at an elevation above HAT and close to the seaward edge of dune vegetation.




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Section 21

Noosa Shire Council Coastal Hazard Mapping                                                               14
Erosion Prone Area Assessment




          Figure 3-2   Conceptual Illustration of the Open Coast Calculated Erosion Distance Formula



3.3      Planning Period (N)
         The present-day, 2040, 2070 and 2100 planning horizons have been assessed. For each
         timeframe, it has been assumed that the storm erosion component (C1 + C2), the rate of long term
         erosion (R) and the dune slumping component (D) remains consistent. For example, the short term
         erosion associated with a storm event is the same for all planning horizons.

         The erosion due to an increase to mean sea level (S) for each timeframe is ultimately based on a
         SLR projection of 0.8 m by 2100, as adopted by the Queensland Government for land use planning
         purposes. SLR benchmarks for the intervening planning horizons have been determined from
         projections that are consistent with the current literature. This has been previously summarised as
         part of the CHAP Scoping Study (BMT WBM 2017).

3.4      Rate of Long Term Erosion (R)
         The rate of long term erosion can be estimated by extrapolating past trends from analysis of
         historical survey data and/or determining any deficit in the local sediment budget, typically via a
         combination of data analysis and longshore sediment transport modelling. In instances when there
         is insufficient data is available to accurately assess (R) on an individual beach basis, the
         component is simply accounted for by adopting an allowance of 10 m (the minimum allowance for
         N x R required by DEHP 2013).

         Changes to the beach profile in response to wave events can be clearly detected in the historical
         survey datasets, with volumetric changes of ±30,000 m3/year common at Noosa Main Beach (e.g.



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Section 22

Noosa Shire Council Coastal Hazard Mapping                                                                  15
Erosion Prone Area Assessment




         Beach Protection Authority 1998). Despite this annual variation, periods of erosion are generally
         followed by accretion and therefore the Noosa region beaches would appear to be ‘dynamically
         stable’ in the short to medium term. Persistent erosion at Noosa Main Beach has been an issue
         since the 1970s and has been somewhat mitigated through a combination of coastal protection
         structures (groynes and seawalls) and a permanent sand replenishment program. While this beach
         remains vulnerable to the impacts of short term storm erosion, shoreline recession due to long term
         trends is currently managed.

         There is no strong indication of shoreline recession along the Noosa Eastern Beaches based on an
         analysis of historical aerial imagery (e.g. BMT WBM 2013). However, it should be noted that only a
         relatively short period of historical records exists and it begins at a time when the beaches were
         known to be recovering from severe cyclonic erosion in the early 1970’s. Furthermore, periodic
         exposure of coffee rock at many locations throughout the wider Sunshine Coast region may be
         anecdotal evidence of a receding shoreline on a geological timescale (e.g. Lord and Burgess
         1987).

         Due to the difficulties in determining long term trends from intermittent historical datasets, BMT
         WBM (2013) estimated the rate of long term shoreline trends using wave and longshore sediment
         transport modelling techniques. A minor rate in long term recession was identified by dividing the
         annual sediment loss per metre of shoreline (averaged over the Sunshine Coast study area and
         taken to be 0.55 m3/m/year) by an estimate of the active profile height at each location. The active
         profile is defined as the vertical distance from the dune crest to the depth of the closure. The dune
         crest was obtained from the measured beach profile data and the depth of closure was estimated
         from the local wave conditions. The depth of closure is the theoretical depth limit for sediment
         transport and is discussed further in Section 3.6.2.

         Adopting the average annual sediment deficit per metre of shoreline and the approach described
         by BMT WBM (2013), the annual rate of long-term erosion (R) for the Noosa CHAP planning
         horizons has been estimated and are presented in Table 3-1. These results, together with
         consideration of the available historical data, suggest that the rate of long term shoreline recession
         is very low.

         For the Noosa CHAP, an allowance of 10 m to account for long-term erosion (N x R) has been
         adopted for all planning horizons, since the annual rates of long-term erosion presented in Table
         3-1 (obtained using modelling techniques described in BMT WBM 2013) and are less than the 10
         m minimum allowance required by DEHP.




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Section 23

Noosa Shire Council Coastal Hazard Mapping                                                                                     16
Erosion Prone Area Assessment




                                Table 3-1      Summary of Long Term Recession Results (m)1

            Beach                  Profile          Active             Annual             2040 (m)      2070 (m)     2100 (m)
            Compartment            Location        Height (m)       Recession (m)          N = 23        N= 53        N= 83
            Peregian Beach         ETA 578              18                0.031               0.7           1.6          2.6
            Peregian Beach         ETA 582              17                0.033               0.8           1.7          2.7
            Peregian Beach Compartment – Modelled Long Term Recession (m)                     0.8           1.7          2.7
            Castaways Beach        ETA 596              21                0.026               0.6           1.4          2.1
            Sunshine Beach         ETA 602              19                0.030               0.7           1.6          2.5
            Sunshine Beach Compartment – Modelled Long Term Recession (m)                     0.7           1.7          2.7
            Noosa Main Beach       ETA 621.2            17                0.031               0.7           1.7          2.6
            Noosa Main Beach       ETA 622              17                0.032               0.7           1.7          2.7
            Noosa Main Beach       ETA 623              19                0.029               0.7           1.5          2.4
            Noosa Main Beach Compartment – Modelled Long Term Recession (m)                   0.7           1.6          2.6
            Noosa North Shore      ETA 626              21                0.027               0.6           1.4          2.2
            Noosa North Shore      ETA 628              18                0.030               0.7           1.6          2.5
            Noosa North Shore      ETA 630              16                0.034               0.8           1.8          2.8
            Noosa North Shore      ETA 632              16                0.035               0.8           1.9          2.9
            Noosa North Shore      ETA 634              18                0.030               0.7           1.6          2.5
            Noosa North Shore      ETA 636              17                0.032               0.8           1.7          2.7
            Noosa North Shore      ETA 638              17                0.032               0.7           1.7          2.7
            Noosa North Shore      ETA 640              17                0.032               0.7           1.7          2.6
            Noosa North Shore      ETA 642              19                0.030               0.7           1.6          2.5
            Noosa North Shore Compartment – Modelled Long Term Recession (m)                  0.7           1.7          2.6
            Teewah Beach           ETA 646              18                0.031               0.7           1.6          2.5
            Teewah Beach           ETA 650              18                0.031               0.7           1.7          2.6
            Teewah Beach           ETA 654              21                0.026               0.6           1.4          2.2
            Teewah Beach           ETA 658              18                0.030               0.7           1.6          2.5
            Teewah Beach           ETA 662              18                0.030               0.7           1.6          2.5
            Teewah Beach           ETA 666              19                0.029               0.7           1.5          2.4
            Teewah Beach           ETA 670              14                0.038               0.9           2.0          3.2
            Teewah Beach           ETA 674              21                0.026               0.6           1.4          2.2
            Teewah Beach           ETA 678              21                0.026               0.6           1.4          2.2
            Teewah Beach Compartment – Modelled Long Term Recession (m)                       0.7           1.6          2.5




1
  The minimum allowance for N x R required by DEHP (2013) is 10 m and has been adopted in the Erosion Hazard Area Width formula
for all Noosa CHAP planning horizons.


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Section 24

Noosa Shire Council Coastal Hazard Mapping                                                                                            17
Erosion Prone Area Assessment




3.5         Storm Erosion (C)
            Storm erosion occurs when increased wave heights and water levels result in the erosion of sand
            from the upper beach ridge. The eroded sand is taken offshore where it is deposited as a sand bar
            located near the wave break area. After the storm event the sediment is slowly transported
            onshore, often over many months or several years, rebuilding the beach.

            The potential for short term storm erosion due to severe wave and elevated sea water levels (storm
            tide conditions) has been predicted using the simple cross-shore equilibrium profile model of
            Vellinga (1983). This empirical model calculates upper beach and dune erosion volume associated
            with the given storm induced extreme water level and wave conditions. The amount of shoreline
            recession is determined from the input parameters and the initial (pre-storm) beach profile shape.
            The model assumes the volume of material eroded from the upper beach/dune system and
            deposited offshore is balanced by a setback of the shoreline. This assessment approach is
            described further below.

3.5.1       Design Event Erosion Assessment

3.5.1.1 Background Information and Datasets
            As discussed in Chapter 2, Aurecon (2013) recently assessed and updated storm tide levels
            throughout the Noosa region. The present-day 100 year ARI ‘surge plus tide’ levels have been
            adopted for the short term storm erosion assessments.

            BMT WBM (2013) assessed design wave heights for the Sunshine Coast region which included the
            Noosa Eastern Beaches. Inputs to the wave modelling was based on the statistical analysis of the
            Brisbane Waverider buoy data (Allen & Callaghan 2001)2 that considered waves generated by
            cyclonic and non-cyclonic conditions. The 100 year ARI significant wave height has been used as
            input to the erosion hazard assessments. In addition, the wave setup contribution to the sustained
            water level at the shoreline has been estimated following Stockdon et al (2006):

            S shoreline  0.35  f H 0 L0 
                                              1/ 2



            Equation 3-3
            Where βf is the foreshore slope (approximately 1V:25H throughout the study area), H0 is the deep
            water significant wave height and L0 is the deep-water wave length (L0 = gT/2π where T is the
            wave period = 12s).

            The setup allowance has been added to the ‘surge plus tide’ levels reports by Aurecon (2013) and
            used as input to the Vellinga (1983) storm erosion model. This is considered a conservative
            approach since the erosion model only requires input of the ‘surge plus tide’ level and the
            additional contribution of wave setup to the extreme water level leads to an increase in the
            predicted erosion volume.

            An assumed beach sediment median grain size of 0.22 mm (220 µm) was adopted throughout the
            study area (e.g. Delft Hydraulics Laboratory 1970; Jones 1992). This grain size is typical for south

2
 Shand et al. (2011) also report extreme value analysis of Brisbane waverider buoy recordings using approximately 10 years of
additional data. Their results are consistent with Allen & Callaghan (2001) with the 100 year ARI significant wave height Hs ≈ 8 m.


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Section 25

Noosa Shire Council Coastal Hazard Mapping                                                                 18
Erosion Prone Area Assessment




         east Queensland beaches; however, it is noted that the Vellinga model is relatively sensitive to the
         assumed sediment grain size with the erosion volume and setback distance increasing with
         decreasing grain size.

         The pre-storm upper beach profile for the assessments was obtained from topographic LiDAR
         survey acquired in 2016 and provided by Council. The upper beach profile data typically extended
         offshore to an elevation between 0 and -1.0 m Australian Height Datum (AHD). Below this
         elevation, the nearshore and offshore beach profile information used in this assessment was
         extracted from a bathymetric LiDAR survey captured in 2011 (Queensland Government, 2012).

         The combined 100 year ARI ‘surge plus tide’ level, wave height and wave setup allowance that
         define the ‘design event’ for the Noosa CHAP short term storm erosion assessments are
         summarised in Table 3-2.

         It is noted that the likelihood of the 100 year ARI storm tide event coinciding with the 100 year ARI
         wave conditions throughout the Noosa region remains uncertain however is considered a rare
         event and appropriate for planning periods of at least 100 years.

3.5.1.2 Design Erosion Events Modelling Results
         The predicted storm erosion profile at each assessment location is provided in Appendix C and the
         model inputs and assessment results are summarised in Table 3-2.

         An example storm erosion modelling result at North Shore beach is presented in Figure 3-3. The
         position of the design water level and the DNRM coastline on the surveyed beach profile is also
         shown in Figure 3-3. As discussed in Section 3.2.1.1and illustrated conceptually in Figure 3-2, the
         DNRM coastline definition has been used to estimate the dune frontal toe position and is the
         seaward reference for the storm erosion assessment and the overall open coast calculated erosion
         distance (E in Equation 3-2). Both the C1 and C2 components of the short term erosion are
         provided in Table 3-2. In situations where the DNRM coastline reference is landward of the design
         water level, the C2 term has been set to zero.

         The short-term setback distances varied significantly throughout the region, with the range between
         7 m and 63 m (n = 25, mean = 25 m, SD = 16 m) relative to the seaward toe of the frontal dune.
         The variation is primarily due to differences in the height and volume of the coastal barrier and the
         nearshore slope. Relatively subtle changes in the design storm characteristics also contribute to
         alongshore variation in the erosion estimates.

         It is also important to note that the Vellinga storm erosion estimates do not account for erosion
         controls, such as the presence of bedrock behind the beach or man-made coastal erosion
         protection structures. Consideration of the seawall at Noosa Main Beach is discussed further in
         Section 3.9.




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Section 26

Noosa Shire Council Coastal Hazard Mapping                                                        19
Erosion Prone Area Assessment




            Figure 3-3    Example Design Erosion Setback at North Shore Beach (ETA 626 shown in
                                                 Figure 3-1)




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Section 27

Noosa Shire Council Coastal Hazard Mapping                                                                    20
Erosion Prone Area Assessment




                        Table 3-2     Summary of Design Storm Erosion Assessment Results

Beach Compartment                             Profile     Peak        Input      Wave       Modelled    Modelled
                                              Locati      Surge       Peak       setup      Erosion     Landward
                                              on           plus      Height,      (m)       Volume       Setback
                                                           Tide      Hs (m)                  (m3/m)
                                                                                                        C1    C2
                                                         (mAHD)
                                                                                                        (m)   (m)
Peregian Beach                                ETA 578      1.72         5.9        0.38           43    16     0
Peregian Beach                                ETA 582      1.72         5.9        0.38           61    12    35
Peregian Beach Compartment – Adopted C1 Setback Distance (m) = 14; Adopted C2 Distance (m) = 18
Castaways Beach                               ETA 596      1.74         6.2        0.46           77    21     0
Sunshine Beach                                ETA 602      1.74         6.2        0.46           103   52     0
Sunshine Beach Compartment – Adopted C1 Setback Distance (m) = 37; Adopted C2 Distance (m) = 0
Noosa Main Beach                              ETA          1.53                    0.52           207   53     0
                                                                        6.2
                                              621.2
Noosa Main Beach                              ETA 622      1.53         6.2        0.52           163   63     0
Noosa Main Beach                              ETA 623      1.53         6.2        0.52           21    11     0
Noosa Main Beach Compartment – Adopted C1 Setback Distance (m) = 42; Adopted C2 Distance (m) = 0
Noosa North Shore                             ETA 626      1.63         6.2        0.39           120   36     9
Noosa North Shore                             ETA 628      1.63         6.2        0.39           95    27     3
Noosa North Shore                             ETA 630      1.63         6.2        0.39           81    25    10
Noosa North Shore                             ETA 632      1.63         6.2        0.39           69    30     4
Noosa North Shore                             ETA 634      1.63         6.2        0.39           48    16     0
Noosa North Shore                             ETA 636      1.63         6.2        0.35           60    15     0
Noosa North Shore                             ETA 638      1.63         6.2        0.35           47     7     0
Noosa North Shore                             ETA 640      1.63         6.2        0.35           48    13     0
Noosa North Shore                             ETA 642      1.63         6.2        0.35           36     8     0
Noosa North Shore Compartment – Adopted C1 Setback Distance (m) = 20; Adopted C2 Distance (m) = 3
Teewah Beach                                  ETA 646      1.74         6.2        0.37           44     9     4
Teewah Beach                                  ETA 650      1.74         6.2        0.37           47    12     3
Teewah Beach                                  ETA 654      1.74         6.2        0.37           69    25     6
Teewah Beach                                  ETA 658      1.74         6.2        0.37           72    22     0
Teewah Beach                                  ETA 662      1.74         6.2        0.37           52    25     3
Teewah Beach                                  ETA 666      1.74         6.2        0.37           41     9     0
Teewah Beach                                  ETA 670      1.74         6.2        0.37           59    21     0
Teewah Beach                                  ETA 674      1.74         6.2        0.37           63    19     1
Teewah Beach                                  ETA 678      1.74         6.2        0.37           10     7     0
Teewah Beach Compartment – Adopted C1 Setback Distance (m) = 17; Adopted C2 Distance (m) = 2




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Noosa Shire Council Coastal Hazard Mapping                                                               21
Erosion Prone Area Assessment




3.5.1.3 Wave Runup & Overtopping Potential
         A preliminary assessment of the contribution of wave runup processes to the extreme water level
         has been considered at the open coast locations. Within estuaries the contribution of wave driven
         processes to the extreme water level is assumed to be much smaller.

         Wave runup is the intermittent process of advancement and retreat of the instantaneous shoreline
         position on a timescale that is of the order of the incoming wave period. Wave runup can be a
         significant contributor to the peak water levels and inundation associated with the overtopping of
         coastal barriers. Furthermore, the large quantity of energy contained in individual wave runup can
         pose a serious risk to coastal barriers (natural or man-made) within the wave runup zone.

         The wave setup and runup contribution to shoreline water levels within the coastal zone has been
         estimated using an empirical formulation based on 10 dynamically diverse field experiments
         described in Stockdon et al (2006). The runup height predicted with this formula is the level above
         the offshore mean water level that is exceeded by 2% of runup events (R2). The general
         expression for wave setup and wave runup on beaches provided in Stockdon et al. (2006):

         Wave setup

          S shoreline  0.35  f H 0 L0 
                                         1/ 2



         Equation 3-4


         Wave runup

                  
                                                       
                                 H 0 L0 0.563 f2  0.004 
                                                         1/ 2

          R2  1.1 S shoreline 
                                            2                
                                                             
         Equation 3-5
         Where βf is the foreshore slope, H0 is the deep water significant wave height and L0 is the deep
         water wave length (L0 = gT/2π where T is the wave period).

         Adopting a representative regional 100 year ARI design wave height of 6.2 m (see Table 3-2), an
         associated wave period of 12 seconds and foreshore slope of 1V:25H in Equation 3-5 gives a 2%
         runup height of 1.77 m.

         Table 3-3 provides a summary of the present-day runup elevation (mAHD) associated with the
         adopted design storm definition. Table 3-3 also indicates the primary frontal dune height at each
         assessment location and the potential for overtopping of the dune (or coastal barrier). Overtopping
         is predicted to occur at Noosa Main Beach and Teewah Beach, with the latter considered being of
         little consequence due to the well-established hind dune area.

         The consequence of overtopping would be greater at Noosa Main Beach and may significantly
         influence the coastal hazard at this location. Furthermore, since the landward migration of the
         shoreline in response to SLR is constrained by development at this location, the wave overtopping
         potential will increase with SLR if left unmitigated. Overtopping at Noosa Main Beach may need
         further assessment during the options analysis stage of the Noosa CHAP.


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Section 29

Noosa Shire Council Coastal Hazard Mapping                                                                             22
Erosion Prone Area Assessment




                              Table 3-3        Summary of Wave Runup & Overtopping Potential

               Beach                      Profile          Dune Height            Surge plus         Surge, Tide plus 2%
             Compartment                 Location            (mAHD)              Tide (mAHD)           Runup* (mAHD)
           Peregian Beach              ETA 578                    6.9                   1.72                3.27
           Peregian Beach              ETA 582                    6.4                   1.72                3.27
           Castaways Beach             ETA 596                    7.2                   1.74                3.43
           Sunshine Beach              ETA 602                    4.9                   1.74                3.43
           Noosa Main Beach            ETA 621.2                  3.2                   1.53                3.30
           Noosa Main Beach            ETA 622                    3.0                   1.53                3.30
           Noosa Main Beach            ETA 623                    5.8                   1.53                3.30
           Noosa North Shore           ETA 626                    5.6                   1.63                3.22
           Noosa North Shore           ETA 628                    5.5                   1.63                3.22
           Noosa North Shore           ETA 630                    6.8                   1.63                3.22
           Noosa North Shore           ETA 632                    4.2                   1.63                3.22
           Noosa North Shore           ETA 634                    4.5                   1.63                3.22
           Noosa North Shore           ETA 636                    5.7                   1.63                3.16
           Noosa North Shore           ETA 638                    7.1                   1.63                3.16
           Noosa North Shore           ETA 640                    5.5                   1.63                3.16
           Noosa North Shore           ETA 642                    5.8                   1.63                3.16
           Teewah Beach                ETA 646                    5.5                   1.74                3.29
           Teewah Beach                ETA 650                    4.8                   1.74                3.29
           Teewah Beach                ETA 654                    4.5                   1.74                3.29
           Teewah Beach                ETA 658                    4.3                   1.74                3.29
           Teewah Beach                ETA 662                    3.7                   1.74                3.29
           Teewah Beach                ETA 666                    3.6                   1.74                3.29
           Teewah Beach                ETA 670                    3.0                   1.74                3.29
           Teewah Beach                ETA 674                    4.9                   1.74                3.29
           Teewah Beach                ETA 678                    4.6                   1.74                3.29
           *shading indicates potential overtopping of the primary frontal dune or coastal barrier




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Section 30

Noosa Shire Council Coastal Hazard Mapping                                                                23
Erosion Prone Area Assessment




3.6      Shoreline Response to Sea Level Rise (S)
3.6.1    Background Information
         As discussed in BMT WBM (2017), the Noosa CHAP adopts the following sea level rise allowances
         (relative to present-day mean sea level):

         • 2040: 0.2 m

         • 2070: 0.5 m

         • 2100: 0.8 m

         These allowances are based on consideration of the following key studies:

         • IPCC (2014) suggest global mean increases to sea level of approximately 0.3 m by 2050 and
           0.8 m by 2100;

         • DOE, CSIRO & BOM suggest regional mean increases to sea level of approximately 0.14 m by
           2030 and 0.65 m by 2090;

         • Analysis of east coast Australia tide gauge data suggests 3 mm/year increase in mean sea level
           (e.g. CSIRO-ARECRC 2012; Wainwright and Lord 2014); and

         • State planning policy and guidelines that adopt 0.8 m by 2100.

3.6.2    Equilibrium Profile (Bruun Rule) Concept
         The mean sea level has remained at or near the present level for about 6,500 years. During this
         period the shoreline throughout the study area has evolved to a condition of ‘dynamic equilibrium’,
         noting that relatively short-term fluctuations in shoreline position occur (typically in response to
         storm events). In theory, the dynamic equilibrium shape will be maintained as the shoreline moves
         landward in response to SLR. This shoreline response assumes that no significant sediment
         sources or sinks emerge and that the landward migration of the shoreline is not obstructed by
         natural or man-made features.

         The equilibrium profile concept can be simulated by the Bruun Rule (Bruun 1962) which is
         illustrated in Figure 3-4. As SLR gradually occurs, wave, tide and wind related sand transport
         processes influence a higher position on the beach profile, with the shoreline evolving to a more
         landward position to return to equilibrium with the new sea level. There is an upward and landward
         translation of the profile to maintain equilibrium with the prevailing condition at the new SLR
         position.




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Section 31

Noosa Shire Council Coastal Hazard Mapping                                                                    24
Erosion Prone Area Assessment




                     Figure 3-4    Bruun (1962) Concept of Recession due to Sea Level Rise


         Application of the Bruun Rule has been highly contested within the coastal science community (e.g.
         Ranasinghe et al., 2007), often relating to the method for estimating the depth of closure. The
         depth of closure is the theoretical depth limit at which there is little or no potential for significant
         cross-shore exchanges of sand. Recession estimates can vary by around 500% depending on the
         method used to calculate the depth of closure (Ranasinghe and Stive, 2009). This compounds the
         already high level of uncertainty associated with the future rate of SLR and highlights the
         appropriateness of a risk-based approach to future climate shoreline recession assessments.

         As noted by Woodroffe et al. (2012), the wide application of the Bruun Rule probably reflects its
         simplicity rather than its proven accuracy and recession rate estimates based on the method
         should be considered as only broadly indicative. More robust numerical methods to assess future
         climate shoreline recession exist; however, such methods require extensive historical datasets to
         underpin the modelling assumptions and, despite significant additional effort, will not always reduce
         the level of uncertainty for decision makers over long planning periods.

         The ‘Standard’ Bruun Rule Approach

         The simplified Bruun Rule as shown in Figure 3-30 for the linear recession distance r (in metres) is:
              𝐵𝑎
         𝑟=
              𝐷
         Equation 3-6

         Where: B = horizontal distance offshore from the top of the dune to the depth of closure (d); a = the
         rise in sea level, and D = the vertical distance (height) from the top of the dune to the depth of
         closure (d).

         Depth of Closure

         Hallermeier (1981) divides the nearshore zone into three zones, namely:

         • The littoral zone, which “extends to the seaward limit of intense bed activity”;


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Noosa Shire Council Coastal Hazard Mapping                                                                25
Erosion Prone Area Assessment




         • The shoal zone, which “extends from the seaward edge of the littoral zone to a water depth
           where expected surface waves are likely to cause little sand transport” and “waves have neither
             strong nor negligible effects on the sand bed” ; and

         • The offshore zone, which is seaward of the shoal zone and water depths are relatively deep
             with respect to surface wave effects on the sea bed.

         Hallermeier (1981) stresses that sediment motion can and does occur seaward of the shoal zone,
         however the seaward boundary (di) defined by Hallermeier (1981) aims to provide “a physically
         meaningful seaward limit to the usual wave-constructed shoreface”.

         Hallermeier (1981) then identifies two depths that define the landward and seaward boundaries of
         the shoal zone:

         • Depth dl which is the “maximum water depth for sand erosion and seaward transport by an
           extreme yearly wave condition”; and seaward of this; and

         • Depth di which is the “maximum water depth for sand motion by the median wave condition”,
           corresponding to the seaward limit of the usual wave-constructed profile.

         Patterson (2012; 2013) identified that the time-scale of profile response, the time required for the
         profile to achieve equilibrium, increases with depth and needs to be considered in determining
         closure depth. Nicholls et al. (1996, 1998) and Cowell et al. (2001) both refer to the closure depth
         in terms of the time scale considered. That is, they note that profile “closure” occurs at greater
         depth as the time scale increases. Nicholls et al. (1998) adopt a version of the Hallermeier (1977;
         1981) relationship for depth of closure of the form:

         𝑑𝑙,𝑡 = 2.28 𝐻𝑒,𝑡 − 68.5 (𝐻𝑒,𝑡2 / 𝑔𝑇𝑒,𝑡 2 )
         Equation 3-7

         Where dl,t = the predicted depth of closure over t years, referenced to Mean Low Water; He,t = non-
         breaking significant wave height exceeded 12 hours per t years; and Te,t = associated wave period.

         Following Equation 3-7, the depth of closure to cater for SLR over a planning period of 100 years
         will be greater than that adopted for shorter durations. Adopting a representative regional 1% AEP
         design wave height of 6.2 m (see Table 3-2) and an associated wave period of 12 seconds in
         Equation 3-7 suggests a 100 year planning period depth of closure around 11-12 m for Noosa
         beaches. However, it should be noted that this does not provide for the concept of accumulation at
         the lower part of the equilibrium profile translation to balance upper profile erosion on which the
         Bruun Rule is based.

         Considering the above, the horizontal distance offshore to the depth of closure varies between
         approximately 525 m and 950 m throughout the study area. Considering the variation in dune
         heights and offshore bathymetry, the measured Bruun Rule slope factor ranges from 1:32 to 1:56.

3.6.3    Shoreline Response to Sea Level Rise Assessment Results
         The shoreline response to SLR assessment results are presented in Table 3-4. It must be
         recognised that the Bruun Rule does not account for the influences of longshore sand transport
         processes on the profile response to sea level, nor does it consider the potential changes to


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Noosa Shire Council Coastal Hazard Mapping                                                              26
Erosion Prone Area Assessment




         sediment sinks and sources (e.g. rivers and creeks) that may influence the future sediment budget.
         As noted by DEHP (2013), SLR projections are expected to be refined and updated in line with
         future IPCC publications. Should this refinement occur, Noosa Shire Council may wish to consider
         a review of the assumptions that underpin the SLR assessments described in this report.




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Section 34

Noosa Shire Council Coastal Hazard Mapping                                                             27
Erosion Prone Area Assessment




                     Table 3-4     Summary of Response to Sea Level Rise Assessment Results

                                              Profile         Bruun Rule Recession Estimate (m)
                        Profile     Profile
     Beach                                    Slope
                        Locat-      Width                   2040            2070            2100
   Compartment                                 (1V:
                         ion         (m)                 (0.2m SLR)      (0.4m SLR)       (0.8m SLR)
                                               XH)
 Peregian Beach        ETA 578        630       35            7              18               28
 Peregian Beach        ETA 582        620       36            7              18               29
 Peregian Beach Compartment – Adopted                         7              18               29
 Castaways Beach       ETA 596        595       32            6              16               26
 Sunshine Beach        ETA 602        525       32            6              16               26
 Sunshine Beach Compartment – Adopted                         6              16               26
 Noosa Main Beach      ETA 621.2      800       55            11             27               44
 Noosa Main Beach      ETA 622        800       55            11             28               44
 Noosa Main Beach      ETA 623        800       46            9              23               37
 Noosa Main Beach Compartment – Adopted                       10             26               42
 Noosa North Shore     ETA 626        950       56            11             28               45
 Noosa North Shore     ETA 628        750       44            9              22               35
 Noosa North Shore     ETA 630        790       43            9              22               35
 Noosa North Shore     ETA 632        750       48            10             24               38
 Noosa North Shore     ETA 634        725       46            9              23               36
 Noosa North Shore     ETA 636        725       42            8              21               34
 Noosa North Shore     ETA 638        720       39            8              19               31
 Noosa North Shore     ETA 640        715       42            8              21               34
 Noosa North Shore     ETA 642        715       42            8              21               33
 Noosa North Shore Compartment – Adopted                      9              22               36
 Teewah Beach          ETA 646        715       42            8              21               34
 Teewah Beach          ETA 650        750       46            9              23               37
 Teewah Beach          ETA 654        735       46            9              23               37
 Teewah Beach          ETA 658        750       48            10             24               38
 Teewah Beach          ETA 662        750       50            10             25               40
 Teewah Beach          ETA 666        760       50            10             25               40
 Teewah Beach          ETA 670        720       50            10             25               40
 Teewah Beach          ETA 674        735       45            9              23               36
 Teewah Beach          ETA 678        765       48            10             24               38
 Teewah Beach Compartment - Adopted                           9              24               38




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Section 35

Noosa Shire Council Coastal Hazard Mapping                                                                28
Erosion Prone Area Assessment




3.7      Factor of Safety (F)
         A 40% factor of safety has been applied to the erosion hazard area calculations for this study, as a
         conservative provision to acknowledge the uncertainties and limitations of the adopted methods
         and assumptions. In addition, there are many other conservative assumptions that underpin
         erosion prone area width assessment, including:

         • The design storm erosion event being characterised by coincident 100 year ARI storm tide and
             100 year ARI wave conditions. It is assumed that the probability of this event occurring in any
             given year is less than one percent;

         • The assumption that the coastal barrier only contains erodible sands;

         • No recognition of existing (or possible future) shoreline erosion management activities such as
           dune revegetation, beach nourishment, revetment seawalls and/or other man-made structures
             designed to limit shoreline recession; and

         • Accurate cross-shore profiles, measured from the 2016 topography LiDAR survey and the 2012
           bathymetric LiDAR survey.

3.8      Dune Slumping (D)
         Immediately following storm erosion events on sandy beaches, a near vertical erosion scarp of
         substantial height can be left in the dune or beach ridge. An area of reduced bearing capacity can
         exist on the landward side of sand escarpments. This can impact on structures founded on sand
         within this zone and the sand escarpments pose a hazard associated with sudden collapse.

         Over time the near vertical erosion scarp will slump to the natural angle of repose of the sand.
         Nielsen et al. (1992) outlined the zones within and behind the erosion escarpment on a dune face
         that is expected to slump or become unstable following a storm erosion event (see Figure 3-5),
         namely:

         • Zone of Slope Adjustment (ZSA): the area landward of the vertical erosion escarpment crest
             that may be expected to collapse after the storm event; and

         • Zone of Reduced Foundation Capacity (ZRFC): the area landward of the zone of slope
           adjustment that is unstable being in proximity to the storm erosion and dune slumping.

         Amongst other factors, the width of the dune slumping and reduced bearing capacity behind the top
         of an erosion escarpment is dependent upon the angle of repose of the dune sand and the height
         of the dune above mean sea level.




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Section 36

Noosa Shire Council Coastal Hazard Mapping                                                              29
Erosion Prone Area Assessment




            Figure 3-5 Schematic Beach/Dune Cross Section Showing Pre and Post Erosion Dune
                Face and Dune Stability Profiles (from DECCW, 2010; after Nielsen et al., 1992)


         For the current assessment, the dune slumping component provides for the horizontal distance
         between the vertical erosion scarp and zone of reduced bearing capacity. A typical angle of repose
         of 34 degrees for dune sands, and scour level of -1m AHD, was applied to the Nielsen et al (1992)
         schema, in addition to the dune crest heights measured from the available 2016 LiDAR topography
         for each beach profile. The results of the assessment are summarised below in Table 3-5).




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Section 37

Noosa Shire Council Coastal Hazard Mapping                                                         30
Erosion Prone Area Assessment




                             Table 3-5      Summary of Dune Slumping Assessment Results

           Beach Compartment               Profile Location   Dune Height (mAHD)   Dune Slumping (m)
           Peregian Beach                  ETA 578                       6.9              18
           Peregian Beach                  ETA 582                       6.4              17
           Peregian Beach - Adopted = 18
           Castaways Beach                 ETA 596                       7.2              19
           Sunshine Beach                  ETA 602                       4.9              13
           Sunshine Beach – Adopted = 16
           Noosa Main Beach                ETA 621.2                     3.2               9
           Noosa Main Beach                ETA 622                       3.0               9
           Noosa Main Beach                ETA 623                       5.8              15
           Noosa Main Beach – Adopted = 11
           Noosa North Shore               ETA 626                       5.6              15
           Noosa North Shore               ETA 628                       5.5              15
           Noosa North Shore               ETA 630                       6.8              18
           Noosa North Shore               ETA 632                       4.2              12
           Noosa North Shore               ETA 634                       4.5              12
           Noosa North Shore               ETA 636                       5.7              15
           Noosa North Shore               ETA 638                       7.1              18
           Noosa North Shore               ETA 640                       5.5              15
           Noosa North Shore               ETA 642                       5.8              15
           Noosa North Shore – Adopted = 15
           Teewah Beach                    ETA 646                       5.5              15
           Teewah Beach                    ETA 650                       4.8              13
           Teewah Beach                    ETA 654                       4.5              13
           Teewah Beach                    ETA 658                       4.3              12
           Teewah Beach                    ETA 662                       3.7              11
           Teewah Beach                    ETA 666                       3.6              10
           Teewah Beach                    ETA 670                       3.0               9
           Teewah Beach                    ETA 674                       4.9              13
           Teewah Beach                    ETA 678                       4.6              13
           Teewah Beach – Adopted = 12




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Section 38

Noosa Shire Council Coastal Hazard Mapping                                                                 31
Erosion Prone Area Assessment




3.9      Assessment Results
         Open coast erosion hazard distances have been calculated following the methodology and formula
         described in Section 3.2.1 and 3.2.1.1 for locations throughout the study area where sufficient data
         is available. The results (beach compartment averages) presented in Table 3-6 include the 40%
         factor of safety that is assumed to account for the uncertainties associated with the assessments
         (see Section 3.7).

         As previously discussed, the calculated erosion distances do not account for local erosion controls,
         such as the engineered coastal protection structures or erosion resistant bedrock slopes. Properly
         designed and maintained seawalls are expected to limit the landward extent of the erosion. The
         design standard of the Noosa Main Beach seawall, concealed within the sand dune, remains
         uncertain. It has been assumed the existing structure may not withstand a design storm event but
         would be sufficient to limit long term recession and the shoreline response to sea level rise. This
         assumption has been incorporated to the coastal hazard mapping produced for Noosa Main Beach.

         As noted in Section 3.4, it has been difficult establishing a clear long-term trend in shoreline
         recession from the available historical datasets but it is assumed to be very low and/or mitigated
         through ongoing management activities. The adopted value of R = 10 m for all planning horizons is
         based on the minimum allowance required by DEHP.

         The short-term erosion component (see Section 3.5) varies between 7 m and 63 m (n = 25, mean =
         25 m, SD = 16 m) relative to the seaward toe of the frontal dune. The alongshore variation is
         primarily due to differences in the height and volume of the coastal barrier and the nearshore slope.
         The short term erosion component accounts for approximately 30% of the coastal erosion hazard
         area under the 2100 timeframe.

         Considering the SLR projection of 0.8 m by the year 2100 adopted by the Queensland Government
         for planning purposes (DEHP 2015), the shoreline response to sea level rise (S, see Section 3.6)
         component accounts for approximately 35% of the coastal erosion hazard area by 2100.

         The coastal erosion hazard area also considers slumping of the dune scarp (D, see Section 3.8)
         and this component accounts for approximately 15% of the total erosion prone area under the 2100
         timeframe. Dune instability was estimated using the zone of reduced foundation capacity zone
         schema by Nielsen et al (1992).




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Section 39

 Noosa Shire Council Coastal Hazard Mapping                                                                                                                                      32
 Erosion Prone Area Assessment

                                             Table 3-6     Beach Compartment Summary of Open Coast Calculated Erosion Distances

                  Long term          Short term storm              Dune            Shoreline response to sea level           Calculated erosion distance                Notes
                   recession        erosion component            slumping                       rise                                      E
 Beach            component                                     component                       SxF                                      (m)
 Compartm                                                                                        (m)
 ent
                  (N x R) x F       C1 x F          C2                D                 2040      2070          2100        Present     2040     2070     2100
                      (m)            (m)            (m)              (m)         (0.2m SLR)    (0.5m SLR)    (0.8m SLR)      -day2

 Peregian
                       14             20            18                18                10         25            41            56        80       95       111
 Beach
 Castaways
 Beach to
                       14             52             0                16                 8         22            36            68        90      104       118
 Sunshine
 Beach
 Noosa                                                                                                                                                              Seawall controls
 Main                  14             59             0                11                14         36            59            70        98      120       143      expected to limit
 Beach3                                                                                                                                                                 erosion

 Noosa                                                                                                                                                             Possible bedrock
 North                 14             28             3                15                13         31            50            46        73       91       110     control may limit
 Shore                                                                                                                                                                 erosion

                                                                                                                                                                   Possible bedrock
 Teewah
                       14             24             2                12                13         34            53            38        65       86       105     control may limit
 Beach                                                                                                                                                                 erosion

1 The calculated erosion distances are measured landward from the frontal dune toe. These estimates do not consider local erosion controls where present (i.e. bedrock or engineered

coastal protection structures). They also do not apply to coastal waterway entrances.
2 Short term erosion and dune slumping components only (C1 x F + C2 + D)

3 Noosa Main Beach seawall expected to limit long term recession and shoreline response to sea level rise. Mapping assumes the erosion hazard area is limited to the short term

erosion and dune slumping components only (i.e. the present-day width) landward of the seawall.




 G:\Admin\B22613.g.mpb.Noosa_CHAS\R.B22613.002.04.NSC_CHAP_Mapping.docx

Section 40

Noosa Shire Council Coastal Hazard Mapping                                                               33
Permanent Inundation due to Sea Level Rise




4        Permanent Inundation due to Sea Level Rise
4.1      Hazard Assessment Approach
         As discussed by BMT WBM (2017), the State EPA mapping defines permanent tidal inundation
         due to SLR at 2100 as:

         • Present-day Highest Astronomical Tide (HAT) plus 0.8 m SLR.

         The hazard area is then obtained by extrapolating the water level across land. Areas adjacent to
         tidal waters where the ground elevation falls below the threshold water level are deemed to be
         within the hazard area.

         The SLR hazard information provided by the State is useful for ‘first-pass risk screening’ only and
         does not provide sufficient information regarding likelihood and consequence to undertake a more
         detailed risk assessment. To address this issue, SLR hazard mapping including depth classification
         has been developed for the Noosa CHAP planning horizons. The adopted approach generally
         follows the State definition, whereby a threshold water level (mAHD) is defined by consideration of
         HAT plus an appropriate SLR allowance. The water level mapping assumptions are summarised in
         Table 4-1. These thresholds for different locations throughout the study area consider Maritime
         Safety Queensland published tidal planes (MSQ 2017) along the open coast and within the lower
         Noosa River. Linear interpolation of the water level between the sites has been adopted with the
         Munna Point and Tewantin levels extending into Lake Cooroibah/Cootharaba and Lake Weyba
         respectively.

                Table 4-1     Permanent inundation due to Sea Level Rise mapping assumptions

             Planning             SLR          Noosa Head HAT       Munna Point HAT      Tewantin HAT
             Horizon         allowance (m)        (mAHD)               (mAHD)              (mAHD)

            Present-day             0                 1.16               0.68                  0.55
                2040               0.2                1.36               0.88                  0.75
                2070               0.5                1.66               1.18                  1.05
                2100               0.8                1.96               1.48                  1.35




4.2      Assessment Results
         The projected impact of inundation due to SLR is presented in Appendix E and is moderate across
         the Noosa region, primarily impacting land adjacent to the lower Noosa River. Based on current
         forecasts, and in the absence of an adaptation response, this impact would be realised between
         2060 and 2080 and significantly escalate by 2100.




G:\Admin\B22613.g.mpb.Noosa_CHAS\R.B22613.002.04.NSC_CHAP_Mapping.docx

Section 41

Noosa Shire Council Coastal Hazard Mapping                                                                                       34
Hazard Classification




5          Hazard Classification
5.1        Introduction
           To inform the Noosa CHAP risk assessment, it will be necessary to classify coastal hazard areas
           presented in this report. A short discussion on some key considerations is presented below.

5.2        Storm Tide inundation
           In terms of defining inundation hazards, floodplain and emergency management guidelines
           consider both velocity and depth of flows. The flood hazard classification as defined by Handbook 7
           - Australian Emergency Management Handbook Series is summarised in Table 5-1 and Figure 5-1.
           As part of risk and vulnerability assessments for the Noosa CHAP, the temporary inundation
           hazard associated with storm tide (and coincident catchment flooding and storm tide) may need to
           be further defined based on this or another similar classification.

5.3        Permanent Inundation from Sea-level Rise
           Tidal inundation is slowly emerging and characterised by very low flow velocities (less than 0.5
           m/s). Therefore, when defining the potential hazard associated with permanent inundation due to
           SLR, it is important to note the significance or consequence of the low velocity HAT plus SLR
           inundation hazard and its relationship to depth, frequency and duration of inundation.

           Multiple locations within the study area may experience frequent – possibly even daily – inundation
           by tidal waters under future climate scenarios. This inundation (even for areas subject to less
           frequent inundation) may result in a range of effects such as sediment deposition, salinization of
           soils, and/or reduced functionality of buried infrastructure services. These effects to both built and
           natural environments will gradually develop (over many decades) and are distinct in nature from
           more rapid onset hazards such as storm tide inundation. Therefore, the potential consequence and
           risk associated with permanent inundation from SLR will be assessed separately in subsequent
           CHAP phases3.

           Future climate performance analysis of affected infrastructure, services and natural environments
           adjacent to tidal waterways will need to be considered in conjunction with lower catchment and
           riverine flood and drainage assessments.

5.4        Coastal Erosion
           The open coast calculated erosion distances presented in this report may also require further
           consideration as part of ongoing work for the Noosa CHAP, in the event hazard reduction
           measures are undertaken in the future at a given location.




3
 It is noted that the Noosa CHAP storm tide and erosion prone area assessments and mapping described in this report include an
allowance for SLR.


G:\Admin\B22613.g.mpb.Noosa_CHAS\R.B22613.002.04.NSC_CHAP_Mapping.docx

Section 42

Noosa Shire Council Coastal Hazard Mapping                                                                          35
Hazard Classification




                                       Table 5-1       Flood Hazard Classification Description4

               Hazard Vulnerability Classification             Description

                                    H1                         Generally safe for vehicles, people and buildings.

                                    H2                         Unsafe for small vehicles.

                                    H3                         Unsafe for vehicles, children and the elderly.

                                    H4                         Unsafe for vehicles and people.

                                                               Unsafe for vehicles and people. All building types
                                    H5                         vulnerable to structural damage. Some less robust
                                                               building types vulnerable to failure.

                                    H6                         Unsafe for vehicles and people. All building types
                                                               considered vulnerable to failure.




                                       Figure 5-1      Flood Hazard Classification and Curves2




4
    Handbook 7: technical flood risk management guideline: Flood Hazard


G:\Admin\B22613.g.mpb.Noosa_CHAS\R.B22613.002.04.NSC_CHAP_Mapping.docx

Section 43

Noosa Shire Council Coastal Hazard Mapping                                                               36
References




6        References
         Allen, M. and Callaghan, J. (2001). Extreme Wave Conditions for the South Queensland Coastal
         Region, Environmental Technical Report 32, Queensland Environmental Protection Agency.

         Aurecon (2013) Sunshine Coast Storm Tide Study – Storm Tide Definition, prepared for Sunshine
         Coast Regional Council, April, 21pp.

         BMT WBM (2017) Coastal Hazards Risk, Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment Scoping
         Report, prepared for Noosa Shire Council, 62 pp.

         Beach Protection Authority (1998). Noosa Beach Technical Report: Conservation Technical Report
         No. 9. Department of Environment (Queensland Government). March 1998.

         Bruun P. (1962). Sea level rise as a cause of shoreline erosion. Journal of Waterways and Harbors
         Division, American Society Civil Engineering, Vol. 88: pp117-130.

         DEHP (2013). Coastal hazard technical guide, Determining coastal hazard areas, prepared by
         Environmental Planning, Queensland Department of Environment and Heritage Protection, April
         2013. https://www.ehp.qld.gov.au/coastalplan/pdf/hazards-guideline.pdf

         Delft Hydraulics Laboratory (1970). Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia – Coastal erosion and
         related problems. Delft Hydraulics Laboratory, Netherlands, Report R 257.

         GHD (2014). NDRP Storm Tide Hazard Interpolation Study, prepared for Department of Science,
         Information Technology, Innovation and the Arts, 97 pp. https://data.qld.gov.au/dataset/ndrp-storm-
         tide-hazard-interpolation-series

         Griffith University Centre for Coastal Management and GHD Pty Ltd (2012). Coastal Hazard
         Adaptation Options – A Compendium for Queensland Coastal Councils, prepared for the
         Queensland Department of Environment and Heritage Protection

         Hallermeier, R.J. (1977). Calculating a yearly limit depth to beach erosion. Proc. 16th Coastal
         Engineering Conf., Hamburg, Germany, pp 1493-1512.

         Hallermeier R.J. (1981). A profile zonation for seasonal sand beaches from wave climate. Coastal
         Engineering, 4(3), pp253-277.

         Harper B.A. (2012). Guidelines for responding to the effects of climate change in coastal and ocean
         engineering – 3rd Edition May 2012. Engineers Australia, National Committee on Coastal and
         Ocean Engineering, EA Books, 74pp. Revised June 2013. [Available online at:
         https://www.engineersaustralia.org.au/sites/default/files/shado/Learned%20Groups/National%20Co
         mmittees%20and%20Panels/Coastal%20and%20Ocean%20Engineering/vol_1_web.pdf ]

         Harper B.A. (2017). Guidelines for responding to the effects of climate change in coastal and ocean
         engineering – 4th Edition (in prep). Engineers Australia, National Committee on Coastal and Ocean
         Engineering.

         Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2014). Climate Change 2014 Synthesis Report.

         Jones, M.R. (1992). Quaternary Evolution of the Woorim-Point Cartwright Coastline, Volumes 1 &
         2, Department of Minerals and Energy, Marine and Coastal Investigations Project Report MA49/2.


G:\Admin\B22613.g.mpb.Noosa_CHAS\R.B22613.002.04.NSC_CHAP_Mapping.docx

Section 44

Noosa Shire Council Coastal Hazard Mapping                                                             37
References




         Lord, D. B. and Burgess, A. L. (1987). The Erodibility of Indurated Sands, Eighth Australasian
         Conference on Coastal and Ocean Engineering, 1987.

         MSQ (2017). Queensland Tide Tables 2017. Maritime Safety Queensland.

         Nielsen, A.F., Lord, D.B., and H.G. Poulos, (1992). Dune Stability Considerations for Building
         Foundations , Institution of Engineers, Civil Engineering Transactions Vol CE34, No.2, June 1992,
         pp. 167-173.

         Queensland Government (2012). Queensland coastal risk and bathymetric LiDAR: a pilot study for
         collecting near-shore bathymetry. Queensland Department of Science, Information Technology,
         Innovation and the Arts, Brisbane, Australia.

         Shand, T.D., Wasko, C.D., Goodwin, I., Carley, J.T., You, Z.J., Kulmar, M. and Cox, R.J. (2011)
         Long-term trends in NSW coastal wave climate and derivation of extreme design storms, NSW
         Coastal Conference Tweed Heads.

         Stockdon, H.F., Holman, R.A., Howd, P.A. and Sallenger, Jr., A.H. (2006). Empirical
         parameterization of setup, swash, and runup, Coastal Engineering 53, 573-588.

         Vellinga, P. (1983). Predictive computation model for beach and dune erosion during storm surges.
         Delft Hydraulics Laboratory, Publication No. 294.

         WMA Water (2017a) Noosa River Flood Study Upgrade Volume 4, Design Event Modelling Report,
         prepared for Noosa Shire Council, 92 pp.

         WMA Water (2017b) Noosa River Flood Study Future Climate Scenarios, prepared for Noosa Shire
         Council, 5 July 2017.




G:\Admin\B22613.g.mpb.Noosa_CHAS\R.B22613.002.04.NSC_CHAP_Mapping.docx

Section 45

Noosa Shire Council Coastal Hazard Mapping                               A-1
Open Coast & Lower Noosa River Storm Tide Hazard Extent




Appendix A                Open Coast & Lower Noosa River Storm Tide
                          Hazard Extent




G:\Admin\B22613.g.mpb.Noosa_CHAS\R.B22613.002.04.NSC_CHAP_Mapping.docx

Section 46

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Section 48

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Title:                                                                                                                     Figure:                        Rev:
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 Inundation Peak Depth
                                                                                                                               i
 BMT WBM endeavours to ensure that the information provided in this                                                         Wee
 map is correct at the time of publication. BMT WBM does not warrant, N     Okm              4                 8           ty   -
 guarantee or make representations regarding the currency and               a                                              ™    wa
 accuracy of information contained in this map.                                      Scale - Main Map                       a         BMT WBM
  curacy   ofi    i              i                             /-                               -                            ae,
                                                                                                                                        www.bmtwbm.com.au
 Filepath: 1:\B22613.i.mbp.Noosa_CHAS\DRG\COA_011_170802_Storm_Tide_2100.wor

Section 50

Noosa Shire Council Coastal Hazard Mapping                               B-1
Coincident Catchment Flooding & Storm Tide Hazard Extent




Appendix B                Coincident Catchment Flooding & Storm Tide
                          Hazard Extent




G:\Admin\B22613.g.mpb.Noosa_CHAS\R.B22613.002.04.NSC_CHAP_Mapping.docx

Section 51

5                      :                                               i k                            (               Google™earth
                        i                                                     rs                      .                Data SIO, NOAA, U.S. Navy,
            ~P     3    Py                                               P   tat                                       NGA, GEBCO
          f         Dye /                                                re   ah                                       image © 2017 DigitalGlobe
      ped                     .                            7            = be i                     F                   image © 2017 CNES / Airbus
     \                                                               ‘   a is
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     7                        a                                               s =             r
                                                            rl                  q
    LEGEND                                                Hake\Como}
            Noosa Shire                                      ‘vag               |
            LGA Baundaly                          a        pe" bs              q      :
    ———— Noosa River                           x ae                           4
                                                =        a                     q        *
   — Urban Model Extent                        y ™                             1
                      ys                                 “a                      5
                                                        a                         |
       Peak Flood Depth (m)                           ;                            ey
 i                                                  F        flake!
               0 tes                                       ‘Cootharaba
          =    0.5 to 1.0                     ay
               ie - a                      i    ov                               DS  sTeewah
                -5 to 2.                                                         3
               2.0 to 2.5                  ge       Se Doreen)                  “ed
                                                   Pe ee
               2.5 to 3.0          —                                              al
               3.0 to 3.5               ae                                   dl       |
               3.5 to 4.0             =       aa                         al
               4.0 to 4.5           5    rt                            y
               4.5 to 5.0               pepe                       ote
               >5.0                        ie                            "aa
     Hazard extentderived                       if        s.       ay       |
     using methods described                      a.)     ir          3              :
     in WMA Water (2017) and                pete     Cea           et   iy
     Airborne Laser Scanning              7          che cae |     -           is
     data captured in 2010.         a              Fer           Pail        3
     inundation depths are               a           a Beano ocr ar)      '  die
     derived from water levels                 eae         :    a
     that do notinclude any                  a oe             *,            a
    freeboard allowance.                      Pe     ar       a.                er
                                                           Phy           an            ae
                                                             p— 6h                   iO
                                                           STA Taek.                tt tal and
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          tet  ta                                       a       aa  .                   ake)     g     a
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               :              me                   wt        ‘War               :     iWeyba’ i        ‘

                                 ae.            .     :             ft,              Peregian Beach |
                              .        i                                       ;      a A   al     k
  4         2                        *   d                                             ee =        hs]
           4                        :                                                    2 ae      8

Title:                                                                                                           Figure:                      Rev:
 Present Day Planning Horizon Coincident Catchment                                                               B-1                           A
 Flooding & Storm Tide Inundation Peak Depth
                                                                                                                     if
 BMT WBM endeavours to ensure that the information provided in this                                               We
 map is correct at the time of publication. BMT WBM does not warrant, N Okm           4               8          ty  =
 guarantee or make representations regarding the currency and         ——_                                       ip,
 accuracy of information contained in this map.                               Scale - Main Map                    ‘a       BMT WBM
  >curac’ i                                               / \                           zi                         eZ
                                                                                                                             www.bmtwbm.com.au
 Filepath: 1\B2261 3.i.mbp.Noosa_CHAS\DRG\COA_015_170802_Coincident_StormTide_and_Flooding_Present_Day.wor

Section 52

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          f         Del                                                rm                                             image © 2017 DigitalGlobe
      acta                   ‘                             ;           mt “4                      F                   image © 2017 CNES/ Airbus
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                                                =        a                             m
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                      ,                                 ,                        J
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 i                                                 ,          lake                     /
               0.0 to 0.5                                                         |
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               ie - a                    fi    a                                !   »»leewah
                                           gion                                 1
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                -5 to 2.                     a      eo
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               3.5 to 4.0            :        a                         -
               4.0 to 4.5           +   Pe                          a
               4.5 to 5.0               ern                       po
               >5.0                       i ale                     a
     Hazard extentderived                      di         4 / }      4      '
     using methods described                       ;     _        ,  il    {        |
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     Airborne Laser Scanning              5         cs ee          oe      if
     data captured in 2010.              |  gh     Sia           Pn         ;
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     derived from water levels                a akan
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                                                   f                             .         1 |   Ne “

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                             ‘         =    Py                                <      > ba         k']
                                                  .                                  Eo ee
           a                        aes                                            Nai            a
                             e                                                       A        Ae
Title:                                                                                                         Figure:                      Rev:
 2040 Planning Horizon Coincident Catchment Flooding                                                           B-2                           A
 & Storm Tide Inundation Peak Depth
                                                                                                                   if
 BMT WBM endeavours to ensure that the information provided in this                                             (ee
 map is correct at the time of publication. BMT VWBM does not warrant, N Ok          4               8          ty   ies
 guarantee or make representations regarding the currency and  a                                                Ney, - BMT WBM
 accuracy of information contained in this map.          / \                 Scale - Main Map                    ‘a
                                                                                                                           www.bmtwbm.com.au
 Filepath: |:\B22613.i.mbp.Noosa_CHAS\DRG\COA_014_170802_Coincident_StormTide_and_Flooding_2040.wor

Section 53

"                     =                                              P ~ b                                          Googie™earth
                        i                                                  Si                      ;                 Data SIO, NOAA, U.S. Navy,
           a      ~Z    fi,                                            Pt                                            NGA, GEBCO
          é            ed                                                  Re                                        Image © 2017 DigitalGlobe
      acest                  *                            ;            = i I                     F                   image © 2017 CNES / Airbus
    &                           ,           .                       Pee   Al                    ig
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     ‘                                                             Pf   eur                     P
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                           a                                  4              ae              i
    LEGEND                                               Ecc               a
            Noosa Shire                                     »: “hes           ;
            LGA Boundary                                  i ™
    ——— Noosa River                           -       —_e                            .
   —— Urban Model Extent                       g   ~~                         4
                                                -       a?                    5        *

                     n                                  ,                        ,
       Peak Flood Depth (m)                           a                          Bey
               0.0 to 0.5                                     ce
 i                                                 ,
               0.5 to 1.0                         Sy.                           ‘
               1.0 to 1.5                 i                                     a
               1.5 to 2.0                b           en                         bs,
               2.0 to 2.5                 ee coreen                           rl
               2.5 to 3.0         =a                                        pd
               3.0 to 3.5                  i                                ‘
               3.5 to 4.0            .     att                            a
               4.0 to 4.5           +   a!                             e
              4.5 to 5.0               Pe                         Qa!
               >5.0                        ee                     “ie
     Hazard extentderived                    yo          Boa               5
     using methods described                             a.      or.
     in WMA Water (2017) and                pote     _      i     oe       roe
     Airborne Laser Scanning              sy        Tk a       ,  ape      | if
     data captured in 2010.        —)       FF      oa         Ps           ;
     inundation depths are             . P ste      és Meek Cooccibaty   Pac
     derived from water levels               “sais sh     ys  a:           ?
     that do notinclude any                  3 a             i            we         me
     freeboard allowance.                    ra “G            a)               eh
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                           a                            ES VG                     —§.     eos
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          ee      ae                                            ee                pe |         Saaibeach |
   ee        ae                                2           ,             ES ae
      4   a = ' Fs                  ae   }       ay              mv    we ao                 =      5 5
       en     ao!      ,       p                        -       :     a        °               ‘      FS

                                         :                                      =...

                                 Be.           .     .             5                Peregian Beach |
                             ‘         =   Py                                <       > ba         k']
                                                  -                                 Eo ee
  7         ;                       oe                                               .           i
          &                     ate sy                                             Sas   |       i
                             ~                                                      LA
Title:                                                                                                         Figure:                     Rev:
 2070 Planning Horizon Coincident Catchment Flooding                                                           B-3                          A
 & Storm Tide Inundation Peak Depth
                                                                                                                     4
 BMT WBM endeavours to ensure that the information provided in this                                             We
 map is correct at the time of publication. BMT VWBM does not warrant, N Okm        4               8          tg  o>
 guarantee or make representations regarding the currency and        ———_                                          fr)
 accuracy of information contained in this map.          / \                Scale - Main Map                    ‘a       BMT WBM
  scurac  i                                                                            -                         ay SF
                                                                                                                          www.bmtwbm.com.au
 Filepath: 1:\B22613.i.mbp.Noosa_CHAS\DRG\COA_013_170802_Coincident_StormTide_and_Flooding_2070.wor

Section 54

5                      =                                                    FE i,                                               Google™earth
                           i                                                   a                              ;                   Data SIO, NOAA, U.S. Navy,
            a      ag     fi,                                                  }       :                                          NGA, GEBCO
           é          De                                                      F ei    ola                                         image © 2017 DigitalGlobe
      at                        x                                ;             im.  4 Fd                    F                     image © 2017 CNES / Airbus
     &                             F             .                         a      it                       ‘
     4                                                                    -      | ae                      P
      \       4 ts                                   x    el          ¥ 3                                  :
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      Lola             i                             ;     -          i           Pe
                             ng                                                   ors                ;
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    LEGEND                                                    MakelComo)                1
             Noosa Shire                                          a    ae               d
             LGA Boundary                                      y.” ™                  d
     ——— Noosa River                                Me      Ne                        {       S
    — Urban Model Extent                            e ha                               4
                                                     i          b                     4         *

        Peak Flood Depth (m)                              F.                              ’     /
 i                                                      a           iakel
                 v0 toa                                          ‘Cootharaba
           aan                                                                            |
                 0.5 to 1.0                    aA
                 1.0 to 1.5                          vo                                      s
                 1.5 to 2.0                     r        ion
                 2.0 to 2.5                    ze       #55 Boreen)                       a
                 2.5 to 3.0           ——                                               a’
                 3.0 to 3.5                 - i                                     al
                 3.5 to 4.0              :        a!                            f
                 4.0 to 4.5                 +   |                           “d
                                        =  ra                                   J
                 4.5 to 5.0                 ys                          ‘te X.,
                 >5.0                              al                        ee
      Hazard extentderived                        y             a L    hte          E
      using methods described                       L      —            .    if             :
      in WMA Water (2017) and                   Po        cl             oe         Pe  f
     Airborne Laser Scanning                  SJ          ce Soa,         oe          ‘fi
      data captured in 2010.                    oe      . eae          ae           : Ss
      inundation depths are                 a.             Bee     oor ibaly     Pd oar
      derived from water levels                   pe ae         3
      that do not include any                     a F               i             sp          N
                                                  rs           ae   Tey                   i      »     Begum
      freeboard allowance.                             ce          i              wa:           a
                                                                 en        ee                        RN B2y2
                                                                 iererk
                vr      4                                   Fale     AW Weer we                    Ce ef
                             s                                ey, OUR      Ee                      oe.               '
                25s                     “a                            eae           EG                  ele    My
                    2         $         ere                          i Hake! 300           SS    ge        Sunshine)
         \       awk                                    ;              ‘Doonelfa’      -_       i 3       al Beach
      :    ; sa  e     ff               er,’  :       oe:               aa      ees it                  *       , Re:

          :                                                         hy   Fak.           ag             4
                                       ee           !             Par                   i                ee
                                              ;              .        ’        :        Pier          ieee
                                                         ,                ;               :      batiel f  Ne 3

                                       ae           .     :               CS                 Peregian Beach |
                                ‘          i    Py                                    <       Ps ba         k']
                                                       .                                     fC  eer
  ‘                                     "    4                                                ce   ee       rs]
          Re                                                                                 ee             :
                                  .                                                                     Ee,
Title:                                                                                                                     Figure:                        Rev:
 2100 Planning Horizon Coincident Catchment Flooding                                                                       B-4                              A
 & Storm Tide Inundation Peak Depth
 BMT WBM endeavours to ensure that the information provided in this                                                        (We
                                                                                                                                  4
 map is correct at the time of publication. BMT WBM does not warrant, N     Okm              4                 8           ty   =
 guarantee or make representations regarding the currency and                                                  |           ve
 accuracy of information contained in this map.                                      Scale - Main Map                       ‘a        BMT WBM
  >curac   i                                                   / \                              Fi                           wel
                                                                                                                                        www.bmtwbm.com.au
 Filepath: |:\B22613.i.mbp.Noosa_CHAS\DRG\COA_012_170802_Coincident_StormTide_and_Flooding_2100.wor

Section 55

Noosa Shire Council Coastal Hazard Mapping                               C-1
Storm Erosion Estimates




Appendix C                Storm Erosion Estimates




G:\Admin\B22613.g.mpb.Noosa_CHAS\R.B22613.002.04.NSC_CHAP_Mapping.docx

Section 56

Noosa Shire Council Coastal Hazard Mapping                                                     C-2
Storm Erosion Estimates




     Figure C-1 Storm Erosion Estimate: ETA 578 (top), ETA 582 (middle) and ETA 596 (bottom)



G:\Admin\B22613.g.mpb.Noosa_CHAS\R.B22613.002.04.NSC_CHAP_Mapping.docx

Section 57

Noosa Shire Council Coastal Hazard Mapping                                                      C-3
Storm Erosion Estimates




    Figure C-2 Storm Erosion Estimate: ETA 602 (top), ETA 621.2 (middle) and ETA 622 (bottom)



G:\Admin\B22613.g.mpb.Noosa_CHAS\R.B22613.002.04.NSC_CHAP_Mapping.docx

Section 58

Noosa Shire Council Coastal Hazard Mapping                                                     C-4
Storm Erosion Estimates




     Figure C-3 Storm Erosion Estimate: ETA 626 (top), ETA 628 (middle) and ETA 630 (bottom)



G:\Admin\B22613.g.mpb.Noosa_CHAS\R.B22613.002.04.NSC_CHAP_Mapping.docx

Section 59

Noosa Shire Council Coastal Hazard Mapping                                                     C-5
Storm Erosion Estimates




     Figure C-4 Storm Erosion Estimate: ETA 632 (top), ETA 634 (middle) and ETA 636 (bottom)



G:\Admin\B22613.g.mpb.Noosa_CHAS\R.B22613.002.04.NSC_CHAP_Mapping.docx

Section 60

Noosa Shire Council Coastal Hazard Mapping                                                     C-6
Storm Erosion Estimates




     Figure C-5 Storm Erosion Estimate: ETA 638 (top), ETA 636 (middle) and ETA 642 (bottom)



G:\Admin\B22613.g.mpb.Noosa_CHAS\R.B22613.002.04.NSC_CHAP_Mapping.docx

Section 61

Noosa Shire Council Coastal Hazard Mapping                                                     C-7
Storm Erosion Estimates




     Figure C-6 Storm Erosion Estimate: ETA 638 (top), ETA 642 (middle) and ETA 646 (bottom)



G:\Admin\B22613.g.mpb.Noosa_CHAS\R.B22613.002.04.NSC_CHAP_Mapping.docx

Section 62

Noosa Shire Council Coastal Hazard Mapping                                                     C-8
Storm Erosion Estimates




     Figure C-7 Storm Erosion Estimate: ETA 650 (top), ETA 654 (middle) and ETA 658 (bottom)



G:\Admin\B22613.g.mpb.Noosa_CHAS\R.B22613.002.04.NSC_CHAP_Mapping.docx

Section 63

Noosa Shire Council Coastal Hazard Mapping                                                     C-9
Storm Erosion Estimates




     Figure C-8 Storm Erosion Estimate: ETA 662 (top), ETA 666 (middle) and ETA 670 (bottom)



G:\Admin\B22613.g.mpb.Noosa_CHAS\R.B22613.002.04.NSC_CHAP_Mapping.docx

Section 64

Noosa Shire Council Coastal Hazard Mapping                                             C-10
Storm Erosion Estimates




               Figure C-9 Storm Erosion Estimate: ETA 674 (top) and ETA 678 (bottom)




G:\Admin\B22613.g.mpb.Noosa_CHAS\R.B22613.002.04.NSC_CHAP_Mapping.docx

Section 65

Noosa Shire Council Coastal Hazard Mapping                               D-1
Calculated Erosion Distance Hazard Extent




Appendix D                Calculated Erosion Distance Hazard Extent




G:\Admin\B22613.g.mpb.Noosa_CHAS\R.B22613.002.04.NSC_CHAP_Mapping.docx

Section 66

‘                                                  Google™ earth
                   inn      'é                                '      ,                                                            Data SIO, NOAA, U.SfNavy,
                  fang     A.                                                                                                     NGA, GEBCO
            af         a                          a                                                                               Image © 2017 DigitafSlobe
          al                  x                                                                                                   Image © 2017 CNEB/Airbus
      he                         3                                    ‘on
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    LEGEND
    [      ] Noosa Shire                                                                                                   [Uake|Cooloola)
             LGA Boundary                                                                               it'ake}Como)
             Noosa River
    — Coastline                                                                                                                     %
    —— 2100 Calculated                                                                                                                k
            Erosion Distance            a.)                        :
           2070 Calculated
           Erosion Distance                                                                                                           /
           2040 Calculated                    KiniKin)                                                        Vake
                                                                                   i                                                  '
            Erosion Distance                                ;               e                             Cootharaba
                                                                                .                                                   Teewah
   ——— Present Day Calculated                        ‘                                      ;          Boreen
           Erosion Distance                               .                        ,

                                                                Le                               :

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                                                           SS        j                                    se                       :
                            i   _ y        -   "                =      ~                         &     “    e       ,           iio eceecoocas Fi
          {                                                               cry     ip     ee           ee                              ee        i
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    vcomep. |            i             ar                           ee           ee se            INSET              oe         wo
                                                                                 :                     te       u     >          es        ‘ ;
Title:                                                                                                                 Figure:                        Rev:
 Calculated Erosion Distance                                                                                           D-1                              B
 BMT WBM endeavours to ensure that the information provided in this      Okm              0.5                1                  (er
 map is correct at the time of publication. BMT WBM does not warrant, N       SS                                               i@
 guarantee or make representations regarding the currency and /                     Approx. Scale                              %,        B MT
 accuracy of information contained in this map.              L X          Okm              4                8                   jo
                                                              =           a                aE |
                                                                                   Scale - Main Map                                 www.bmt.org
 Filepath: 1:\B22613.i.mbp.Noosa_CHAS\DRG\COA_016B_180104_Calculated_Erosion_Distance.wor

Section 67

Noosa Shire Council Coastal Hazard Mapping                               E-1
Permanent Inundation due to Sea-Level Rise Extent




Appendix E                Permanent Inundation due to Sea-Level Rise
                          Extent




G:\Admin\B22613.g.mpb.Noosa_CHAS\R.B22613.002.04.NSC_CHAP_Mapping.docx

Section 68

-                                                                                                                                 Google™ earth
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                    ~Z     A.                                                                                                       NGA, GEBCO
            ee         wy                                                                                                           Image © 2017 DigitaiGlobe
     f cet                       ‘                              a                                             j                     image © 2017 CNES/ Airbus
      \                                                P   ad                                                :
      a            NE        Sy                                                                       \    4
              _      , A                              _—
                         ‘ sean ate                                                            ns      ;   i

     LEGEND                                                      akelCoro *                  ‘oofocla
                        se                                               ae   }                        fi
      a Noosa Shire                                                          ’ te                      i
             LGA Boundary                                                     se                       fH
                                                                                 on                 / ii
             Noosa River                                              Pee        ) i            \     @
                                                                           tad                       {
                    ot                                                                              ii
                                                                  d                     A           :
               :                               ~                                        .           |
        Peak Flood Depth (m)                                    Ca                                 i
                                                              =                           b      ed
                                         :                  a                                     i
 2               0.0 to 0.5                                Fs
  :              0.5 to 1.0                               1           Bae
                 1.0 to 1.5                              :        ‘Cootharaba       om
                 1.5 to 2.0                              EN                           3         a      x
                 2.0 to 2.5                               oa                       pd           "eee
                 2.5 to 3.0                               =   Boreen               i            !
                 3.0 to 3.5            Pea          <     gf                      «             '
                 3.5 to 4.0                  ;        4                                        {
                 4.0 to 4.5                          ;                     "7d
                 4.5 to 5.0                            x           na                          t
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Title:                                                                                                                       Figure:                         Rev:
 2040 Planning Horizon Permanent Inundation due to Sea                                                                       E-1                              A
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 BMT WBM endeavours to ensure that the information provided in this                                                           Le,
 map is correct at the time of publication. BMT WBM does not warrant, N      Okm               4                 8            if
 guarantee or make representations regarding the currency and                                    a                            %    :
 accuracy of information contained in this map.                                       Scale - Main Map                         vias     BMT             WBM
                                                                                                                                          www.bmtwbm.com.au
 Filepath: 1\B22613.i.mbp.Noosa_CHAS\DRG\COA_017_170803_SLR_2040.wor

Section 69

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Title:                                                                                                            Figure:                       Rev:
 2070 Planning Horizon Permanent Inundation due to Sea                                                             E-2                           A
 Level Rise
                                 ;      ;     shred                                                                  sie
 BMT WBM endeavours to ensure that the information provided in this                                                 Le
 map is correct at the time of publication. BMT WBM does not warrant, N Okm            4                8          if
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 accuracy of information contained in this map.                                Scale - Main Map                     vias     BMT WBM
                                                                                                                               www.bmtwbm.com.au
 Filepath: 1\B22613.i.mbp.Noosa_CHAS\DRG\COA_018_170803_SLR_2070.wor

Section 70

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Title:                                                                                                                Figure:                        Rev:
 2100 Planning Horizon Permanent Inundation due to Sea                                                                 E-3                            A
 Level Rise
                                   .            :      ;                                                                 sie
 BMT WBM endeavours to ensure that the information provided in this                                                    We oo
 map is correct at the time of publication. BMT WBM does not warrant, N  Okm              4                8           iy   =
 guarantee or make representations regarding the currency and                                                           A
 accuracy of information contained in this map.              / \                  Scale - Main Map                      ‘a       BMT WBM
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                                                                                                                                   www.bmtwbm.com.au
 Filepath: 1\B2261 3.i.mbp.Noosa_CHAS\DRG\COA_019_170803_SLR_2100.wor

Section 71

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