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2021-12-13 GC Agenda - Item 9 - Attachment 2-Noosa Economic Plan Review Update Report 2021
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13 December 2021
Attachment 2 to Item 9
Noosa Local Economic Plan Review
Economic Update Report
Report prepared for
Noosa Shire Council
June 2021
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Section 2
lucid
/’lu:sid/
adjective
1. expressed clearly; easy to understand
2. bright or luminous
Document Control
Job Name: NOOSA LEP Review
Client: Noosa Shire Council
Client Contact: Carolyn Bullen
Version Control
Version Date Authorisation
Draft v1 23/5/21 MC
Draft v2 4/6/21 MC
Draft v3 14/6/21 MC
Disclaimer:
While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of this document, Lucid Economics Pty Ltd is unable to make
any warranties in relation to the information contained herein. Lucid Economics Pty Ltd, its employees and agents
accept no liability for any loss or damage that may be suffered as a result of reliance on this information, whether or
not there has been any error, omission or negligence on the part of Lucid Economics Pty Ltd, its employees or agents.
Any forecasts or projections used in the analysis and relied upon for any findings can be affected by a number of
unforeseen or unknown variables, and as such no warranty is given that a particular set of results will in fact be
achieved or realised.
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Executive Summary
The Noosa Shire Council adopted the Local Economic Plan (LEP) in 2015. Since this time, the local
economy (as well as State, national and global economy) has changed and evolved. As such, as part
of the review of the LEP it is important to understand where the Noosa economy is today and the
changes that it has undergone since the adoption of the LEP in 2015.
There are a number of on-going trends and other features that are important for the Noosa
economy, including:
• Population and Demographics
o Population growth continues to be much lower than South East Queensland and
Queensland
o Noosa has an older population that is aging at a faster rate than the rest of the State
o Noosa has median income levels below the State average and pockets of high
socio-economic disadvantage
• Economic structure is changing
o While construction remains the largest contributor to Gross Regional Product (GRP),
is has exhibited a very volatile nature
o Healthcare is now solidly the second largest contributor to GRP (firmly eclipsing
retail trade, which was the traditional second largest sector)
o Retail trade and accommodation and food services (industries most connected with
the tourism sector) remain important but have been stagnant over the last five years
o Professional services has demonstrated strong growth in terms of industry
value-added over the last five years, growing at an average annual rate of 3.1%
o Some industries are coping with dramatic changes driven by technology, such as
retail, which has seen a dramatic decrease in employment over the last five years.
Similarly, accommodation and food services is also dealing with technological
change that is impacting how people are employed
o Tourism had been growing strongly until the COVID-19 pandemic, including
achieving the highest level of visitation on record in 2019
o A large proportion of Noosa residents work outside of the Shire. The lower median
incomes in Noosa contribute to this trend, with the more highly skilled residents in
the area forced to find work outside of Noosa.
• COVID-19 has impacted Noosa significantly, as it has all parts of Australia
o The unemployment rate has spiked since March quarter 2021
o Based on anecdotal evidence, domestic visitors have returned to Noosa in greater
numbers than previously, partly making up for the closed international border
o Based on the payroll jobs index, jobs in Noosa have returned to their pre-COVID
levels
• There are a number of important trends that will have an impact on Noosa moving forward,
including:
o Online retail has surged ahead due to COVID-19 and associated lockdowns
o The internet has become the trading place for tourism
o People are leaving capital cities at a rate that has not been seen before
o Workplace dynamics have changed, with virtual meetings (and other practices)
having increased greatly as a result of the pandemic, making business travel less and
allowing more people the flexibility to work from home or remotely
This analysis will assist in the review of the LEP, support the consultation phase of the report as well
as the revised LEP.
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Table of Contents
Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................ i
Table of Contents ........................................................................................................................... ii
1. Introduction .............................................................................................................................. 1
2. Population and Demographics .................................................................................................. 2
2.1 Population ............................................................................................................................... 2
2.2 Age ........................................................................................................................................... 3
2.3 Income ..................................................................................................................................... 4
2.4 SEIFA ........................................................................................................................................ 5
3. Economy ................................................................................................................................... 6
3.1 Size and Structure of the Economy ......................................................................................... 6
3.2 Business Counts ....................................................................................................................... 8
3.3 Trade ...................................................................................................................................... 10
4. Employment and Skills .............................................................................................................12
4.1 Labour Force and Unemployment ......................................................................................... 12
4.2 Employment .......................................................................................................................... 15
4.3 Journey to Work .................................................................................................................... 17
4.4 Value of Employment ............................................................................................................ 18
4.5 Employment Targets ............................................................................................................. 19
5. Tourism....................................................................................................................................21
5.1 Visitation ................................................................................................................................ 21
5.2 Value of Tourism.................................................................................................................... 26
6. Property...................................................................................................................................27
6.1 House Prices .......................................................................................................................... 27
6.2 Housing Affordability ............................................................................................................. 27
6.3 Building Approvals ................................................................................................................. 28
7. Competitive Advantages and Opportunities .............................................................................29
8. Future Oriented Trends ............................................................................................................34
8.1 Online Retail Sales ................................................................................................................. 34
8.2 Online Travel Booking............................................................................................................ 35
8.3 Private Holiday Rentals .......................................................................................................... 36
9. Post-COVID Trends ...................................................................................................................37
9.1 Global Trends......................................................................................................................... 37
9.2 National Trends ..................................................................................................................... 37
10.Next Steps................................................................................................................................39
References ....................................................................................................................................40
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1. Introduction
Lucid Economics Pty Ltd (Lucid Economics) has been engaged to assist the Noosa Shire Council with a
review of the Local Economic Plan (LEP).
The Noosa Shire Council is a local government area (LGA) located in the far north of South East
Queensland, with neighbouring LGAs including Sunshine Coast to the south and Gympie to the north
and west. The Pacific Ocean provides a natural boundary to the east.
Figure 1.1. Noosa Shire Council Area
Source: QGSO (2019).
This report provides an in-depth analysis of the local economy including tracking various trends
(both local, national and global) since the LEP was adopted. In the context of this report, all
references to Noosa refer to the LGA boundaries of the Noosa Shire Council.
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2. Population and Demographics
2.1 Population
Noosa had an estimated resident population of 56,600 persons as of June 30, 2020 (Figure 2.1).
Noosa’s population growth has consistently been slower than the South East Queensland and
Queensland averages over the past 15 years. Noosa’s population growth has averaged 1.1% over the
five years to 2020, below the South East Queensland (2.1%) and Queensland (1.6%) averages.
Interestingly, population growth accelerated in Noosa in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic, in
contrast to the Queensland average. Lifestyle factors and the shift towards work-from-home
arrangements were likely key drivers of this accelerated growth.
Figure 2.1. Historical Population
60,000 4%
45,000 3%
Population growth
Population (no.)
30,000 2%
15,000 1%
0 0%
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Noosa Noosa (%) South East Queensland (%) Queensland (%)
Note: ERP at 30 June of each year.
Source: ABS (2021).
Population Matters
Population growth is important to support economic growth in the local area. An increasing
number of local residents will increase demand for a range of products and services offered from
local businesses. Roughly one-third of the economy is directly related to local residents and
includes local services such as retail trade, education, healthcare and others. However, given the
slower population growth that Noosa has experienced when compared to the state average,
economic growth will need to come from other sources such as increased investment in the high
value industry sectors and / or the adoption of improved technology.
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The Queensland Government’s (QGSO, 2021) latest population growth forecasts show the region’s
annual population growth is likely to remain below the South East Queensland and Queensland
averages through to the year 2041. Noosa’s population is expected to increase by around 9,600
persons from 2020-2041, an average of just 0.7%. However, this forecast may be challenged by the
impact of the COVID-19 pandemic (as seen in accelerated population growth in 2020), particularly in
the near-term.
Figure 2.2. Projected Population
70,000 2.1%
60,000 1.8%
Average annual population growth
50,000 1.5%
Population (no.)
40,000 1.2%
30,000 0.9%
20,000 0.6%
10,000 0.3%
0 0.0%
2020 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
Noosa Noosa (%) South East Queensland (%) Queensland (%)
Sources: ABS (2021), QGSO (2021).
2.2 Age
Due to lifestyle factors and the region’s popularity with retirees, Noosa has a much older population
than the Greater Brisbane and Queensland medians (Table 2.1). Unfortunately, this data is based on
the Census, so more up to date figures are not available. It may be with the recent estimated
population growth that more, younger families may be moving to Noosa. The 2021 Census will
identify any changes to the age structure in the population. Any change, however, will likely be
minor.
Table 2.1. Median Age
2006 2011 2016
Noosa 43 46 48
Greater Brisbane 35 35 35
Queensland 36 36 37
Note: Census data not available for the South East Queensland region.
Source: ABS (2017).
Additionally, Noosa is projected to see an increase in the proportion of residents aged 65 years and
over through to the year 2041, increasing from 23% of the total population in 2016 to an estimated
33% by 2041 (Figure 2.3). This equates to residents aged 65 years and over being expected to
increase between 2016 and 2041 by 8,850 residents, a 70% increase on 2016 levels. To put this
change in perspective, the proportion of people aged 65 years and over is expected to increase from
just over 1 in 5 people to 1 out of 3 people by 2041.
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Figure 2.3. Projected Age Structure, Noosa
70,000
60,000
50,000
Population (no.)
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
0-14 15-24 25-44 45-64 65+
Source: QGSO (2021).
2.3 Income
The Noosa region’s median weekly personal and household income levels were both significantly
lower than the Queensland medians from 2006 to 2016. This is likely due to Noosa’s reliance on the
local tourism sector (retail trade and accommodation and food services), which is generally a lower
paying sector for workers. However, on a positive note, average annual growth in household median
weekly income from 2011-2016 in the Noosa region (4.6%) was stronger than the Queensland (2.6%)
average (Table 2.2).
Median household income is an important measure for standard of living. Household income levels
in the Noosa region have grown at a faster rate than inflation (1.8% from June quarter 2011 to June
quarter 2016), providing real income gains for residents.
As with the age demographics, this data is Census based, so changes in 2021 will be interesting to
observe. It is not expected that median incomes in Noosa will raise above the Queensland average.
Table 2.2. Median Income
2006 2011 2016
Personal income ($/week)
Noosa $422 $506 $595
Greater Brisbane $509 $633 $703
Queensland $476 $587 $660
Household income ($/week)
Noosa $884 $953 $1,191
Greater Brisbane $1,112 $1,385 $1,559
Queensland $1,036 $1,227 $1,392
Note: Census data not available for the South East Queensland region.
Source: ABS (2017).
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Figure 2.4. Median Household Income
$1,800
Median Household Income ($/week)
$1,600
$1,400
$1,200
$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200
$0
2006 2011 2016
Noosa Greater Brisbane Queensland
Note: Census data not available for the South East Queensland region.
Source: ABS (2017).
2.4 SEIFA
The image below (Figure 2.5) shows a diversity of socio-economic advantage and disadvantage in
Noosa. Areas around Sunshine / Sunrise Beach, Noosa Heads and Tinbeerwah are in the top two
quintiles of socio-economic advantage, however there are also a number of SA1 regions, particularly
around Tewantin, parts of Noosaville and the Noosa Hinterland (Kin Kin, Como, Cooroy, Pomona etc)
experiencing the lowest levels of socio-economic disadvantage.
Figure 2.5. Index of Relative Socio-Economic Advantage & Disadvantage (by SA1), Noosa (2016)
Source: ABS (2018).
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3. Economy
3.1 Size and Structure of the Economy
Noosa’s Gross Regional Product (GRP) was $3.0 billion in 2019-20, down 0.2% from the previous year
(Figure 3.1). The region’s economic growth has underperformed the Queensland average over both
the past five (1.3% per annum in Noosa, compared to 1.7% across Queensland) and ten (1.8% per
annum in Noosa and 2.1% across QLD) year periods.
Figure 3.1. Gross Regional Product, Noosa
$3.5 7%
$3.0 6%
$2.5 5%
Gross Regional Product (real, $B)
$2.0 4%
$1.5 3%
Annual growth
$1.0 2%
$0.5 1%
$0.0 0%
-$0.5 -1%
-$1.0 -2%
-$1.5 -3%
2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020
Noosa Noosa (%) Queensland (%)
Note: Real terms.
Sources: economyID (2021), ABS (2020).
The largest industries by Industry Value-Add (IVA) in the Noosa region in 2019-20 were:
• Construction
• Health care and social assistance
• Rental, hiring and real estate services
• Retail trade
• Professional, scientific and professional services
• Accommodation and food services
Construction has long been the largest contributing sector to GRP but has had some volatility over
time. Another interesting trend is the strong growth of the healthcare industry over the last three
years, growing at an average annual rate of 7.4% during this time. Professional services has also
demonstrated strong growth over the last five years, growing at an average annual rate of 3.1%. The
growth of these sectors has been much higher than the traditional sectors of retail trade,
accommodation and food services, which have grown at -0.7% and -2.3%, respectively, per year on
average during this time.
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Figure 3.2. Industry Value-Add, 2019-20
Construction
Health Care and Social Assistance
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services
Retail Trade
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services
Accommodation and Food Services
Education and Training
Financial and Insurance Services
Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade
Administrative and Support Services
Public Administration and Safety
Other Services
Transport, Postal and Warehousing
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services
Mining
Information Media and Telecommunications
Arts and Recreation Services
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing
0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
Industry Value-Add (% of total)
Noosa Queensland
Note: Industry Value-Add refers to the industry contribution to GRP.
Source: economyID (2021).
Figure 3.3. Industry Value-Add by Top 6 Industries, Noosa
$350
$300
Industry value-add ($M)
$250
$200
$150
$100
$50
$0
2007-08 2009-10 2011-12 2013-14 2015-16 2017-18 2019-20
Construction Health Care and Social Assistance
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services Retail Trade
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services Accommodation and Food Services
Note: Industry Value-Add refers to the industry contribution to GRP.
Source: economyID (2021).
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3.2 Business Counts
The Noosa economy is dominated by small businesses (98.2% of all businesses have 19 employees or
fewer, Figure 3.4). This structure is similar to most local economies in Australia. Most of the top
industries by number of businesses (construction, ‘rental, hiring and real estate’ and professional
services) are typical industries where there is a great number of individual traders, owner/operators
and small businesses. The industry sector with the largest number of large businesses is
accommodation and food services, representing large hotel businesses in Noosa.
It is important to note that the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) excludes the general
government institutional sector from business counts data, which particularly impacts business
counts in the public administration and safety, education and training, and health care and social
assistance industries.
Business Counts from the ABS
It is important to keep in mind that this data reflects the registered business address of companies
(only), so larger businesses such as Coles, Woolworths and other major retail businesses may not
be captured in the data. The ABS also often exclude sole traders and focuses on businesses with
active ABNs that are registered for GST.
Figure 3.4. Business Counts, Noosa, 2020
1.8% 0.0%
34.6%
Non employing
1-19 Employees
20-199 Employees
200+ Employees
63.5%
Note: Location based on registered address of businesses.
Source: economyID (2021).
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Figure 3.5. Business Counts, by Industry, Noosa, 2020
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing
Mining
Manufacturing
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services
Construction
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Accommodation and Food Services
Transport, Postal and Warehousing
Information Media and Telecommunications
Financial and Insurance Services
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services
Administrative and Support Services
Public Administration and Safety
Education and Training
Health Care and Social Assistance
Arts and Recreation Services
Other Services
0 500 1,000 1,500
Total businesses
Non employing 1-19 Employees 20-199 Employees 200+ Employees
Source: economyID (2021).
Figure 3.6. Business Counts, by Industry, 2020
Construction
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services
Financial and Insurance Services
Retail Trade
Health Care and Social Assistance
Accommodation and Food Services
Other Services
Administrative and Support Services
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing
Transport, Postal and Warehousing
Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade
Education and Training
Arts and Recreation Services
Information Media and Telecommunications
Public Administration and Safety
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services
Mining
0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
% of Total Businesses
Noosa Queensland
Source: economyID (2021).
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3.3 Trade
In terms of inter-regional trade, the sectors providing the most exports are accommodation and
food services as well as retail trade, which demonstrates the strength of the local tourism industry.
Sectors requiring the most imports into the region are manufacturing, financial services, public
administration and healthcare, which is representative of the relatively small nature of Noosa and its
inherit lack of large, sophisticated supply chains across multiple industries.
Figure 3.7: Regional Trade by Industry, Noosa, 2019-20
Accommodation and Food Services
Retail Trade
Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade
Education and Training
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services
Health Care and Social Assistance
Transport, Postal and Warehousing
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services
Arts and Recreation Services
Financial and Insurance Services
Mining
Other Services
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing
Administrative and Support Services
Information Media and Telecommunications
Exports
Public Administration and Safety
Construction Imports
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services
$0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000
$M
Source: economyID (2021).
Understanding Trade Flows
Analysis of trade flows (i.e. exports and imports) provides insights into important sectors locally
that not only benefit from local revenue but generate revenue from outside of the area (i.e.
exporters). Similarly, analysis of large import sectors can help to identify potential sources of
future local growth, if the product or service can be delivered locally.
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Figure 3.8: Regional Exports by Sub-Industry, Noosa, 2019-20
Food and Beverage Services
Accommodation
Other Store-Based Retailing
Food Retailing
Rental and Hiring Services (except Real Estate)
Motor Vehicle and Motor Vehicle Parts Wholesaling
Preschool and School Education
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services (Except
Computer System Design and Related Services)
Residential Care Services
Food Product Manufacturing
0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
% of Exports
Source: economyID (2021).
Figure 3.9: Regional Imports by Sub-Industry, Noosa, 2019-20
Finance
Machinery and Equipment Manufacturing
Hospitals
Transport Equipment Manufacturing
Public Administration
Insurance and Superannuation Funds
Public Order, Safety and Regulatory Services
Food Product Manufacturing
Agriculture
Electricity Supply
0% 2% 4% 6% 8%
% of Imports
Source: economyID (2021).
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4. Employment and Skills
4.1 Labour Force and Unemployment
The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in Noosa’s unemployment rate rising sharply throughout 2020
(Figure 4.1), even while labour force participation fell 5.6%, or around 1,600 persons over the year to
December 2020. The unemployment rate for South East Queensland and Queensland followed a
similar trajectory.
Given Noosa’s reliance on many tourism-linked industries, these results are not surprising. While not
as reliant on international tourism as some other parts of Queensland, Noosa still had strong
international visitor numbers pre-pandemic. Extended international border closures will continue to
impact the region in the near-term, preventing international visitors from visiting the area and
encouraging Australian visitors to travel domestically. With Victorian visitors a key domestic source
market for Noosa, extended lockdowns in Victoria also hit Noosa hard economically (especially since
these visitors are typically very high yield, i.e. have a much higher expenditure per visitor night
compared to the average).
Labour force data by age and sex are available through the ABS (2021b), however this data is in
original terms and therefore the ABS recommend analysing this data in 12-month rolling average
terms to remove any season factors that may impact the data. A shortcoming of the use of
12-month rolling average terms is that the data will be slow to pick-up the magnitude of any sudden
shocks to the labour market, such as the global COVID-19 pandemic. Further, data was only available
at the SA4 level, with the Noosa LGA located within the wider Sunshine Coast SA4 region.
Nevertheless, this data showed the youth unemployment rate in the Sunshine Coast SA4 has risen
substantially since the COVID-19 pandemic, rising from a pre-pandemic level of 13.8% in March 2020
to 16.2% in April 2021. This is a sharper increase than the overall unemployment rate (up from 5.7%
in March 2020 to 7.0% in April 2021), highlighting how youth workers were more significantly
impacted by the pandemic given their stronger likelihood of being employed in industries directly
affected (retail trade, accommodation and food services, etc.).
The participation rate in the Sunshine Coast SA4 also deteriorated due to the pandemic, falling from
63.1% in March 2020 to 59.4% in April 2021. The youth rate participation was even more
significantly affected, falling from 80.3% to 75.7%.
Labour Force and Unemployment Data
These data sets are from the Department of Education, Skills and Employment (DESE) and track
the number of people in the labour force (total), employed and unemployed. This data is based on
place of residence, which differs from the analysis above regarding Gross Regional
Product/Industry Value Add as well as the analysis below regarding employment, which focuses
on data based on place of work. For the labour force survey, the definition of ‘employed’ includes
all persons aged 15 years and over who worked for one hour or more during the reference week.
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Figure 4.1. Labour Force, Employment and Unemployment Rates
30,000 8%
Employment / Labour force (no.)
24,000 7%
Unemployment rate
18,000 6%
12,000 5%
6,000 4%
0 3%
Dec-10 Dec-12 Dec-14 Dec-16 Dec-18 Dec-20
Noosa employment Noosa labour force
Noosa (%) South East Queensland (%)
Queensland (%)
Source: economyID (2021).
Figure 4.2. Unemployment Rate, Sunshine Coast SA4
25%
20%
Unemployment Rate
15%
10%
5%
0%
Apr-01 Apr-05 Apr-09 Apr-13 Apr-17 Apr-21
Total Unemployment Rate Youth Unemployment Rate
Note: 12-month rolling average due to data being in original terms and at the regional level. Youth defined as persons aged
15-24 years.
Source: ABS (2021b).
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Figure 4.3. Unemployment Rate by Sex, Sunshine Coast SA4
14%
12%
10%
Unemployment Rate
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
Apr-01 Apr-05 Apr-09 Apr-13 Apr-17 Apr-21
Males Female
Note: 12-month rolling average due to data being in original terms and at the regional level.
Source: ABS (2021b).
Figure 4.4. Participation Rate, Sunshine Coast SA4
85%
80%
75%
Participation Rate
70%
65%
60%
55%
50%
Apr-01 Apr-05 Apr-09 Apr-13 Apr-17 Apr-21
Total Participation Rate Youth Participation Rate
Note: 12-month rolling average due to data being in original terms and at the regional level. Youth defined as persons aged
15-24 years.
Source: ABS (2021b).
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4.2 Employment
The largest employing industry sectors in Noosa are similar to the largest sectors contributing to
GRP, however, there are some notable differences. The largest employing industry sectors in 2019-
20 include:
• Accommodation and Food Services
• Health Care and Social Assistance
• Retail Trade
• Construction
• Education and Training
The main difference regarding employment and GRP is related to the value contribution from each
sector (i.e. GRP) versus the number of jobs associated with each industry (i.e. employment). Some
sectors have a higher value contribution, relative to the number of jobs they provide. Both are
important to understanding the industry and economic structure of the local area.
Compared to Queensland, Noosa has a much higher proportion of employment in accommodation
and food services, retail trade (related to the strength of the local tourism industry) and
construction.
It is interesting that despite growth in the tourism sector over the last five years, the retail trade
industry has experienced a decrease of 327 jobs, the largest decrease of any industry. At the same
time, the construction sector has seen the largest increase (350 jobs) and accommodation and food
services (223 jobs) the second largest increase over the last five years. These changes show the
considerable structural change that has taken place in the retail trade sector recently as technology
has increase and more consumers are buying products online.
Figure 4.5. Employment by Industry, Noosa, 2019-20
Accommodation and Food Services
Health Care and Social Assistance
Retail Trade
Construction
Education and Training
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services
Other Services
Administrative and Support Services
Manufacturing
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services
Wholesale Trade
Public Administration and Safety
Arts and Recreation Services
Transport, Postal and Warehousing
Financial and Insurance Services
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing
Information Media and Telecommunications
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services
Mining
0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
Employment by industry (% of total)
Noosa Queensland
Source: economyID (2021).
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Figure 4.6. Employment by Industry, Noosa
Accommodation and Food Services
Health Care and Social Assistance
Retail Trade
Construction
Education and Training
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services
Other Services
Administrative and Support Services
Manufacturing
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services
Wholesale Trade
Public Administration and Safety
Arts and Recreation Services
Transport, Postal and Warehousing
Financial and Insurance Services
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing
Information Media and Telecommunications
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services
Mining
0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
Employment by Industry (% of total)
2009-10 2014-15 2019-20
Source: economyID (2021).
Figure 4.7. Employment growth (no.), Noosa
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing
Mining
Manufacturing
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services
Construction
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Accommodation and Food Services
Transport, Postal and Warehousing
Information Media and Telecommunications
Financial and Insurance Services
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services
Administrative and Support Services
Public Administration and Safety
Education and Training
Health Care and Social Assistance
Arts and Recreation Services
Other Services
-400 -200 0 200 400 600 800
5 Year Employment Growth (no.)
2014-15 2019-20
Source: economyID (2021).
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Figure 4.8. Employment growth (%), Noosa
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing
Mining
Manufacturing
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services
Construction
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Accommodation and Food Services
Transport, Postal and Warehousing
Information Media and Telecommunications
Financial and Insurance Services
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services
Administrative and Support Services
Public Administration and Safety
Education and Training
Health Care and Social Assistance
Arts and Recreation Services
Other Services
-60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40%
5 Year Employment Growth (%)
2019-20 2014-15
Source: economyID (2021).
4.3 Journey to Work
Table 4.1 shows that Noosa has a relatively high self-containment rate (i.e. the proportion of local
residents that live and work in the area) at 65.3%. By contrast, other local governments adjacent to
the Brisbane City Council experience self-containment rates around 30%. Unsurprising, a large
proportion of Noosa residents that work outside of the Shire, actually work in the neighbouring
Sunshine Coast Council and to a lesser extent in the Gympie Regional Council area. Those residents
that identify ‘No fixed address’ as their employment location are often either fly-in/fly-out (FIFO)
mine workers, truck drivers and/or construction trades. The lower median incomes in Noosa
contribute to this trend, with the more highly skilled residents in the area forced to find work
outside of Noosa.
Overall, these travel patterns show that the Noosa economy is somewhat insular in terms of
employment, which means that the local economy provides a large amount of job opportunities for
local resident workers. At the same time, the analysis shows that Noosa does not have a sufficient
number of jobs for all of its resident workers, forcing some to leave in order to find employment.
Table 4.1. Journey to Work, Noosa, 2016
Location Number %
Employed residents in the area
Live and work in the area 14,309 65.3%
Live in the area, but work outside 6,092 27.8%
No fixed place of work 1,510 6.9%
Total employed residents in the area 21,898 100.0%
Workers in the area
Live and work in the area 14,309 71.2%
Work in the area, but live outside 5,775 28.8%
Total workers in the area 20,084 100.0%
Source: economyID (2021).
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Table 4.2. Journey to Work, by LGA, Noosa, 2016
Top 10 employment locations of resident Top 10 residential location of local workers
workers by Council by Council
Council No. % Council No. %
Noosa (S) 14,309 65.3 Noosa (S) 14,309 71.2
Sunshine Coast (R) 3,995 18.2 Sunshine Coast (R) 4,921 24.5
No Fixed Address (Qld) 1,470 6.7 Gympie (R) 480 2.4
Gympie (R) 567 2.6 Brisbane (C) 117 0.6
Brisbane (C) 520 2.4 Moreton Bay (R) 75 0.4
Moreton Bay (R) 146 0.7 Gold Coast (C) 31 0.2
Isaac (R) 80 0.4 No Fixed Address (Qld) 27 0.1
Ashburton (S) 47 0.2 Fraser Coast (R) 18 0.1
Gold Coast (C) 46 0.2 Bundaberg (R) 14 0.1
Rockhampton (R) 43 0.2 Ipswich (C) 12 0.1
Source: economyID (2021).
4.4 Value of Employment
Different industries contribute varying degrees of value to the local economy based on a variety of
factors including supply chains, price of goods sold and overall position in the economy. As
highlighted below, mining, financial services, utility services and real estate services are amongst the
highest value-adding industries in the local economy.
Key employing industries in the region including accommodation and food services, retail trade and
health care are amongst the lowest value-adding industries in the local economy. It should be noted
that retail trade and accommodation and food services are most closely linked with the tourism
sector.
High Value-Adding Jobs
In terms of economic development, growing high value-adding jobs will have greater benefits to
the overall economy than increases in low value-adding jobs. The core difference is related to the
relevant supply chains of these industries as well as the wages that are often paid across those
industries. High value-adding jobs will provide a greater ability to spend more in the local
economy, which will create a greater flow-on benefit locally. Additionally, businesses that have
more local supply chains (or the opportunity to form them) will have the ability to support
additional businesses, creating more value in the local economy.
Because one job may offer greater value than another, does not mean that lower value-adding
jobs are not important. These jobs often provide employment for youth and offer an entry point
into the workforce for many residents. Rather, understanding the value of employment should
guide the balance of effort and resources in terms of various industry development and
investment attraction activities.
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Figure 4.9. Industry Value-Add per Employee, Noosa, 2019-20
Mining
Financial & Insurance Services
Electricity, Gas, Water & Waste Services
Rental, Hiring & Real Estate Services
Wholesale Trade
Transport, Postal & Warehousing
Manufacturing
Information Media & Telecommunications
Public Administration & Safety
Professional, Scientific & Technical Services
Construction
Administrative & Support Services
Health Care & Social Assistance
Education & Training
Retail Trade
Tourism
Other Services
Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing
Accommodation & Food Services
Arts & Recreation Services
$0 $200 $400 $600 $800
Industry value-add per employee ($'000)
Note: The tourism sector is linked to expenditure in other industries, in particular the ‘accommodation and food services’
and ‘retail trade’ industries.
Source: economyID (2021).
4.5 Employment Targets
The Department of State Development, Infrastructure, Local Government and Planning (DSDMIP)
developed employment targets for the Noosa LGA in the South East Queensland Regional Plan in
2017. The report showed Noosa was targeting employment of almost 33,500 persons by the year
2041, equating to average employment growth of 1.5% per annum and an absolute increase of
almost 10,700 workers from 2016 levels.
Figure 4.10 shows actual employment for Noosa against the employment targets presented in the
SEQ Regional Plan. At present, Noosa appears to be underperforming the Plan’s 2021 target of
24,999 workers (or average growth of 1.9% per annum from 2016 to 2021). The latest data show
Noosa had 24,286 employed persons in 2019-20, slightly below the SEQ Plan’s target. However,
employment growth in Noosa since 2016 in Noosa has averaged just 0.1% per annum, well below
the Plan’s target growth (Noosa’s employment in 2016 was above the SEQ Plan’s target).
Further, DSDMIP stated in the Regional Plan that ‘major growth sectors identified for Noosa LGA (in
percentage terms) include electricity, gas, water and waste services; rental, hiring and real estate
services; professional, scientific and technical services; and administrative and support services.’ By
2019-20, these sectors had experienced the following average annual employment growth rate in
the four years since 2015-16:
• Electricity, gas, water and waste services down 4.1%;
• Rental, hiring and real estate services up 0.5%;
• Professional, scientific and technical services up 2.2%; and
• Administrative and support services down 6.2%.
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Figure 4.10. Noosa Employment Target vs Actual Employment
40,000
35,000
30,000
Employment (no.)
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
Employment Target (SEQ Regional Plan) Actual Employment
Source: DSDMIP (2017).
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5. Tourism
5.1 Visitation
2019 represented the single largest year of visitation to Noosa on record, with 2.6 million visitors.
Furthermore, growth had averaged 13.6% per year in 2018 and 2019, showing a very strong trend.
The COVID-19 pandemic stifled visitation growth significantly, representing a decrease of over
800,000 visitors (or 32%) to a level not seen since 2013.
Pre-COVID growth showed increases across day trip, domestic overnight and international visitors as
well as domestic and international nights. Pre-COVID growth was broad based, including leisure,
visiting friends and relative (VFR) and business visitors.
While Noosa remains dependent upon the Brisbane and broader Queensland markets, the years
leading up to 2020 saw a return of visitors from Melbourne and Sydney, contributing greatly to the
growth of tourism in Noosa.
Figure 5.1. Visitors by Type, Noosa
3,000
2,500
2,000
Visitors ('000)
1,500
1,000
500
0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Day-trip Domestic overnight International
Source: TRA (2021).
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Figure 5.2. Visitor Nights by Type, Noosa
6,000
5,000
4,000
Visitor Nights ('000)
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Domestic overnight International
Source: TRA (2021).
Figure 5.3. Visitors Staying in Commercial Accommodation by Type, Noosa
800
700
600
500
Visitors ('000)
400
300
200
100
0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Domestic overnight International
Source: TRA (2021).
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Figure 5.4. Visitor Nights Staying in Commercial Accommodation by Type, Noosa
3,500
3,000
2,500
Visitor Nights ('000)
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Domestic overnight International
Source: TRA (2021).
Figure 5.5. Visitors by Purpose of Visit, Noosa
3,000
2,500
2,000
Visitors ('000)
1,500
1,000
500
0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Holiday Visiting friends and relatives Business Other reason
Source: TRA (2021).
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Figure 5.6. Visitors by Source, Noosa
3,000
2,500
2,000
Visitors ('000)
1,500
1,000
500
0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Melbourne Other Vic Brisbane Other Qld Other Aust International
Source: TRA (2021).
Figure 5.7. Visitor Nights by Source, Noosa
6,000
5,000
4,000
Visitor Nights ('000)
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Melbourne Other Vic Brisbane Other Qld Other Aust International
Source: TRA (2021).
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Figure 5.8: Hotel Market Indicators, Noosa
90% $360
80% $320
70% $280
60% $240
50% $200
40% $160
30% $120
20% $80
10% $40
0% $0
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Occupancy Rate (%) ADR ($) RevPAR ($)
Note: Year ending April data. RNS – Room Nights Sold, ADR – Average Daily Rate, RevPAR – Revenue per Available Room.
Source: STR Global (2021)
Figure 5.9. Top 15 Visitor Activities, Noosa
Eat out / dine at a restaurant and/or cafe
Go to the beach
Visit friends & relatives
Sightseeing/looking around
Go shopping for pleasure
Visit national parks / state parks
Bushwalking / rainforest walks
Pubs, clubs, discos etc
Go to markets
Surfing
Water activities / sports
Visit botanical or other public gardens
Exercise, gym or swimming
Charter boat / cruise / ferry
Picnics or BBQs
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
% of Total Visitors
Note: 10-year average to 2020.
Source: TRA (2021).
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5.2 Value of Tourism
Visitors to the Noosa region injected an estimated $849.5 million into the local economy in 2019-20.
This level of expenditure within the local tourism industry is estimated to have directly contributed
$228 million in value added activity to the Noosa economy, equivalent to approximately 10.2% of
total IVA.
In terms of employment, the local tourism industry directly employs an estimated 3,790 workers,
equating to approximately 15.6% of the workforce (Table 5.1).
Table 5.1: Noosa Tourism Economic Contribution (2019-20)
Value Added ($M) Employment (no.)
Direct $227.7 3,790
Indirect $218.2 2,172
Total $445.9 5,962
Direct as % of total 10.2% 15.6%
Source: economyID (2021).
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6. Property
6.1 House Prices
The Noosa housing market has been growing at an extremely rapid pace, making it one of the fastest
growing markets in Queensland. In 2020, house prices grew by a staggering 11.6% from 2019,
representing the single largest annual increase over the last 15 years. The median house price in
Noosa is well above Brisbane, the Sunshine Coast and the Gold Coast, demonstrating the strength of
the market and the high level of appeal that the community has from buyers.
The high growth in median house prices is linked to a phenomenon of various households leaving
‘the City’ (which would include Melbourne and Sydney), where they can achieve a significant
premium for their property and using these funds to pay significant prices for homes in certain
regional destinations that provide a high level of amenity and lifestyle. This trend has accelerated
following the increase in ‘work-from-home arrangements’ resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic.
Other regions, such as the Southern Highlands in New South Wales, are experiencing similar growth
in house prices. Noosa has certainly experienced this phenomenon, which has contributed to making
housing affordability in the area worse.
Table 6.1. Median House Price by Local Government Area
Median Sale Price (YE Sept, $‘000) Average Annual Change (%)
Local Government Area
2000 2010 2015 2019 2020 1yr 5yr 10yr 20yr
Noosa $180 $540 $567 $735 $820 11.6 7.7 4.3 7.9
Brisbane $163 $530 $600 $670 $705 5.2 3.3 2.9 7.6
Gold Coast $193 $530 $560 $660 $690 4.5 4.3 2.7 6.6
Sunshine Coast $160 $482 $510 $605 $640 5.8 4.6 2.9 7.2
Queensland $140 $425 $450 $486 $493 1.4 1.8 1.5 6.5
Source: QGSO (2021).
6.2 Housing Affordability
Given Noosa’s high housing prices but below average household incomes, housing affordability has
intensified as an ongoing issue for the region. Analysis shows that the house price to income ratio
(median house price divided by the median annual household income) for Noosa has increased from
9.6 in 2016 to 12.0 in 2020. This is almost twice the house price to income ratio for Queensland in
2020 (6.2). Further, housing affordability has remained relatively stable in Queensland since 2006,
rising from 5.8 in 2006 to 6.2 in 2020, in contrast to trends in Noosa.
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Figure 6.1. House Price to Income Ratio
14
12
House Price to Income Ratio
10
8
6
4
2
0
2006 2011 2016 2020
Noosa Queensland
Sources: QGSO (2021), ABS (2021d), ABS (2017).
6.3 Building Approvals
Sluggish population growth (compared to other parts of South East Queensland) and a general lack
of large-scale residential development land have seen residential building approvals trend
downward in recent years. As demand surges, if new housing supply cannot be brought online, then
housing costs will continue to escalate, further impacting affordability.
Figure 6.2. Value of Building Approvals, Noosa
$350
$300
Value of Building Approvals ($M)
$250
$200
$150
$100
$50
$0
2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 Mar
Residential Non-Residential FYTD
Source: economyID (2021).
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7. Competitive Advantages and Opportunities
Identifying Competitive Advantages
Identifying and leveraging competitive advantages is important for successful economic
development efforts at the local level. Competitive advantages can exist in many forms including
location, natural resources, industry specialisation and/or infrastructure. This section seeks to
identify the unique competitive advantages of the Noosa region using various analytical
techniques, including:
• Location quotient analysis
• Cluster mapping
This analysis will identify various industry opportunities for the Noosa region to be tested and
verified through consultation.
The following graphs show Noosa’s competitive advantages by industry due to local employment
specialisation. Essentially, the location quotients show the proportion of workers in individual
industries with the ‘1’ line representing parity with Queensland. Industries showing a specialisation
above the ‘1’ line indicate areas of natural competitive advantage.
The analysis shows the natural competitive advantages for Noosa are centred on tourism-linked
industries including accommodation and food services, rental, hiring and real estate services, arts
and recreation services and retail trade. Further Noosa also has a strong competitive advantage in
the construction industry.
Figure 7.1. Employment Location Quotients, Noosa (benchmarked to Queensland), 2019-20
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing
Mining
Manufacturing
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services
Construction
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Accommodation and Food Services
Transport, Postal and Warehousing
Information Media and Telecommunications
Financial and Insurance Services
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services
Administrative and Support Services
Public Administration and Safety
Education and Training
Health Care and Social Assistance
Arts and Recreation Services
Other Services
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5
Location Quotient
Source: economyID (2021).
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The following cluster maps help us to understand the relative competitive advantage against a
backdrop of future expected employment growth, as well as existing local employment strengths.
Cluster Mapping
Cluster mapping is an analytical tool to consider future economic growth opportunities and to
show the importance and growth opportunities for various clusters or industries within the
economy. The cluster maps for Noosa show the significance and importance of tourism-linked
industries such as accommodation and food services, rental, hiring and real estate services and
retail trade. The mapping also shows the growth potential of various other clusters such as the
professional, scientific and technical services, health care and social assistance and education and
training industries.
Interpreting the Cluster Map
Cluster mapping is an analytical tool that can simultaneously present the size and scale of a
location’s competitive advantages with future anticipated growth trends by industry. In cluster
mapping, a location’s competitive advantage is viewed through labour specialisation (i.e. the
relative scale of employment in specific industries). There are three main components to the
cluster map:
• Location quotient: the community’s location quotients are presented along the vertical
axis and these points represent the proportional employment in the community versus a
comparison, in this instance Queensland (i.e. compared with Queensland, how many
people are employed in the sector; 1 = the same, 1.2 = 20% more than the state, etc.).
• Employment Growth: future employment growth expectations per industry, from 2019 to
2024, form the horizontal axis and tell us the percentage growth expected for a sector. In
this instance, projections from the Department of Education, Skills and Employment
(2020) have been used.
• The Cluster: or the ‘bubble’ represents the size of local employment in that given sector,
which shows the significance of the sector locally.
Overall, cluster mapping helps to identify industry areas of focus for further development in the
future.
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Figure 7.2. Cluster Map (1-digit), Noosa
2.5
High Competitive Advantage / Weak Growth High Competitive Advantage / Strong Growth
Accommodation and Food
2.0 Services = 1,000 Employees
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate
Services
Location Quotients (2019-20)
1.5
Arts and Recreation Services See Next Page
Retail Trade
Administrative and Support
Construction
Information Media and Services
Telecommunications Other Services Professional, Scientific and
1.0 Health
Education and Training Care and
Technical Social
Services
Wholesale Trade Assistance
Financial and Insurance
Manufacturing Services Transport, Postal and
Warehousing
0.5
Public Administration and
Agriculture, Forestry and Electricity, Gas, Water and Safety
Fishing Waste Services
Weak Competitive Advantage / Weak Growth Mining Weak Competitive Advantage / Strong Growth
0.0
-2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18%
Employment Growth 2019-2024
Note: Location quotient calculated by proportion of Noosa employment divided by proportion of Queensland employment. Location quotient of greater than 1 indicates industry makes up
larger proportion of Noosa employment than it does across Queensland.
Sources: economyID (2021), DESE (2020).
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Figure 7.3. Cluster Map (1-digit), Noosa (Zoomed-In Section)
1.5
High Competitive Advantage / Weak Growth High Competitive Advantage / Strong Growth
Arts and Recreation Services
1.4
= 1,000 Employees
1.3
Location Quotients (2019-20)
Construction
Administrative and Support
1.2 Services
Professional, Scientific and
Technical Services
1.1
Other Services
1.0
Education and Training
Health Care and Social
Assistance
0.9
Weak Competitive Advantage / Weak Growth Weak Competitive Advantage / Strong Growth
0.8
6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16%
Employment Growth 2019-2024
Note: Location quotient calculated by proportion of Noosa employment divided by proportion of Queensland employment. Location quotient of greater than 1 indicates industry makes up
larger proportion of Noosa employment than it does across Queensland.
Sources: economyID (2021), DESE (2020).
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The analysis above indicates that there are future economic development growth opportunities in a
number of industries. It should be noted that while the analysis shows health care and education
and are potential industries for development, these industries are driven by population growth and
therefore Noosa has headwinds for future development of these industries given the slow
population growth in the region in recent years and the slow population growth projected for the
coming decade.
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8. Future Oriented Trends
8.1 Online Retail Sales
Online retail has gained in popularity across Australia since the onset of the global COVID-19
pandemic, with sales in the year to March 2021 up 64% from the same period a year earlier (Figure
8.1). The trend for online retail was already growing prior to COVID-19, however, the pandemic and
forced lockdown has seen online sales surge forward to a point that otherwise would not have been
reached until 2023 or 2024.
Further, online retail sales now account for roughly 9% of total retail sales per month in Australia, up
from around 6-7% of total sales pre-pandemic (Figure 8.2).
Figure 8.1. Online Retail Sales, Australia
$4.0
$3.5
$3.0
Total Online Sales ($B)
$2.5
$2.0
$1.5
$1.0
$0.5
$0.0
Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21
Original Seasonally Adjusted
Source: ABS (2021c).
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Figure 8.2. Online Retail Sales as a Proportion of Total Retail Sales, Australia
25%
Online Retail Sales as Proportion of Total (%)
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Mar-20 May-20 Jul-20 Sep-20 Nov-20 Jan-21 Mar-2021
Food Non-food Total
Source: ABS (2021c).
8.2 Online Travel Booking
Only three out of the top 15 travel agents in Australia have traditional storefront businesses. All of
these businesses also have a significant online presence. Since 2011, traditional ‘bricks and mortar’
travel agents have faded away, unless they were able to create an online presence to compete
against travel booking businesses that were solely online.
Online travel booking platforms and others are the predominant source of information for people
when choosing a holiday. IBISWorld (2021) found that ‘the Online Travel Bookings industry was
growing rapidly for most of the past five years until the COVID-19 pandemic. Industry operators were
benefiting from the strong consumer uptake of online shopping, with more people relying on the
internet to plan their travel.’
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Figure 8.3. Top 15 Travel Agents Used by Australians
10%
9%
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
Source: Roy Morgan (2017).
8.3 Private Holiday Rentals
In terms of the impacts on the Noosa tourism market specifically, data from AirDNA (2021) shows
that active holiday rental listings located in Noosa Heads have increased at an average annual rate of
13% since March quarter 2018, rising from 677 active listings in March quarter 2018 to 973 active
listings in March quarter 2021. Noosaville also saw similar growth in listings, with active rental
listings increasing an average of 11% per annum since March quarter 2018.
Noosa has one of the highest rates of penetration for Airbnb listings anywhere in Australia.
Figure 8.4. Top 15 Travel Agents Used by Australians
3,500
3,000
2,500
Active Listings (No.)
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
Jul-18
Jul-19
Jul-20
May-18
Mar-18
Nov-18
May-19
Nov-19
May-20
Nov-20
Sep-18
Jan-19
Mar-19
Sep-19
Jan-20
Mar-20
Sep-20
Jan-21
Mar-21
Noosa Heads Noosaville Peregian Beach Sunrise Beach
Sunshine Beach Tweantin Noosa Other
Source: AirDNA (2021).
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9. Post-COVID Trends
9.1 Global Trends
In January 2021, McKinsey published a report highlighting the key trends that will emerge following
the COVID-19 pandemic. A summary of the key future trends, includes:
• Part 1: How the COVID-19 crisis and the recovery are shaping the global economy
o The return of confidence unleashes a consumer rebound (given the constraints put
on to the economy through the COVID-19 crisis, consumers will spend heavily)
o Leisure travel bounces bank but business travel lags
o The crisis sparks a wave of innovation and launches a generation of entrepreneurs
o Digitally enabled productivity gains accelerate the Fourth Industrial Revolution
• Part 2: How businesses are adjusting to the changes prompted by the COVID-19 crisis
o Pandemic-induced changes in shopping behaviour forever alter consumer
businesses
o Supply chains rebalance and shift (with many multi-national corporations seeking to
shorten their supply chains and produce more products closer to their key markets)
o The future of work arrives ahead of schedule (with an acceleration of working
remotely and other technological solutions in the workplace)
o The biopharma revolution takes a hold (with a generation of new drugs unfolding)
o Portfolio restructuring accelerates (with capital flowing from some traditional
industries into others, based on the risks and experiences from the COVID-19 crisis)
o Green, with a touch of brown, is the colour of recovery (that expects sustainability
to become as pervasive throughout the economy as technology has been over the
last decade)
• Part 3: How the COVID-19 crisis could change society
o Healthcare systems take stock – and make changes (with most governments seeking
to prepare for future pandemics and ensure that the healthcare system is stronger)
o The hangovers begin as governments tackle rising debt (so much stimulus has been
provided that governments will need to consider how to effectively deal with the
ensuing debt)
o Stakeholder capitalism comes of age (the requirement for businesses to ensure they
are acting in a morally responsible manner will become more important)
All of these trends will have impact on the Australian, Queensland and Noosa economy.
9.2 National Trends
Figure 9.1 below shows various population trends likely linked to the effects of COVID-19. As
highlighted, net migration away from Sydney and Melbourne in favour of regional areas. While
Brisbane has fared better than Sydney and Melbourne, it is also seen a drop in migration. Regional
Queensland has experienced the most significant increase amongst regional Australia.
Many parts of regional Australia are adjacent to capital cities, offering people the option of still
travelling into the capital city, when required, but enjoying the local lifestyle and working remotely.
Many regional areas have seen strong increases in house prices, which may be linked to these recent
migration trends.
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Figure 9.1. Net Internal Migration, Australia
20,000
10,000
0
Dec-14
Dec-17
Dec-10
Jun-11
Dec-11
Jun-12
Dec-12
Jun-13
Dec-13
Jun-14
Jun-15
Dec-15
Jun-16
Dec-16
Jun-17
Jun-18
Dec-18
Jun-19
Dec-19
Jun-20
Dec-20
-10,000
-20,000
-30,000
-40,000
Greater Sydney Greater Melbourne Greater Brisbane
Regional NSW Regional Victoria Regional Queensland
Source: ABS (2021e).
PWC has recently released an article discussing the future role of Australian CBDs (PWC, 2021). The
article discusses a number of important trends, including:
• Historically, CBDs have been strong economic destinations, producing a considerable
amount of Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
• The COVID-19 pandemic significantly impacted various industries that were based in CBDs,
including:
o Professional services, finance and insurance, which easily shifted to a remote
working / work from home environment
o Accommodation and food services, education and training, retail trade,
administrative and support services, which are not easily transferred to a remote
working environment
• As occupancy rates in major CBDs have remained well below their pre-COVID-19 levels,
many of these other businesses continue to suffer from a lack of patronage
• Many traditional office workers may not return to the CBD for work (a Roy Morgan poll
conducted for the City of Melbourne showed 75% of workers are reluctant to go back to
their workplace full-time).
• The reduced demand for CBD office space will force a lowering of prices and attract new
entrepreneurs and smaller, innovative companies who were previously prevented from
entering the CBD based on price and availability.
• Workplace design will dramatically change to accommodate for COVID-19 and social
distancing measures as well as to ensure they are attractive, functional places for workers
and businesses.
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10. Next Steps
This analysis has provided a detailed understanding of the economic and industry trends in Noosa
over the last five years and beyond, as well as a number of current and future trends, including how
COVID-19 will continue to influence the future economy.
This information will provide the foundation for the review of the Local Economic Plan and provide
insights into areas of focus for the Plan.
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NOOSA LEP REVIEW - Background Report - Draft Report
References
ABS (2021). Regional Population Growth, Australia. Australian Bureau of Statistics, Canberra.
ABS (2021a). Consumer Price Index, Australia. Australian Bureau of Statistics, Canberra.
ABS (2021b). Labour Force, Australia, Detailed. Australian Bureau of Statistics, Canberra.
ABS (2021c). Online Sales, March 2021 - Supplementary COVID-19 Analysis. Australian Bureau of
Statistics, Canberra.
ABS (2021d). Average Weekly Earnings, Australia. Australian Bureau of Statistics, Canberra.
ABS (2021e). Regional Internal Migration Estimates, Dec 2020. Australian Bureau of Statistics,
Canberra.
ABS (2020). Australian National Accounts: State Accounts, 2019-20. Australian Bureau of Statistics,
Canberra.
ABS (2018). Census of Population and Housing: Socio-Economic Indexes for Areas (SEIFA), Australia,
2016. Australian Bureau of Statistics, Canberra.
ABS (2017). Census of Population and Housing, 2016. Australian Bureau of Statistics, Canberra.
ABS (2012). Census of Population and Housing, 2011. Australian Bureau of Statistics, Canberra.
ABS (2007). Census of Population and Housing, 2006. Australian Bureau of Statistics, Canberra.
AirDNA (2021). Vacation Rental Data. Available from: https://www.airdna.co/. Accessed 30 May
2021.
DESE (2020). Labour Market Information Portal: 2019 Employment Projections - for the five years to
May 2024. Department of Education, Skills and Employment, Canberra.
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https://dsdmipprd.blob.core.windows.net/general/seqrp-background-paper-2.pdf. Accessed
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McKinsey (2021). The next normal arrives: Trends that will define 2021—and beyond. McKinsey and
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QGSO (2021). Queensland Regional Database. Queensland Government Statistician’s Office,
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QGSO (2019). Queensland Local Government Areas (LGA), 2016 – Noosa (R). Queensland
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Roy Morgan Research (2018). And Australia’s new favourite travel agent is…Booking.com! Available
from: http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/7193-booking-com-australias-new-favourite-
travel-agent-201703270949. Accessed 30 May 2021.
STR Global (2021). Trend Report, Noosa. STR Global, unpublished.
TRA (2021). National and International Visitor Surveys. Tourism Research Australia, Canberra.
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Visual Capitalist (2019). The Rising Speed of Technological Adoption. Available from:
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/rising-speed-technological-adoption/. Accessed 30 May
2021.
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Lucid Economics Pty Ltd
www.lucideconomics.com.au
[email protected]
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