2021-12-13 GC Agenda - Item 9 - Attachment 2-Noosa Economic Plan Review Update Report 2021

                                                       NOOSA LEP REVIEW - ECONOMIC ANALYSIS REPORT - Draft Report


The Queensland Government’s (QGSO, 2021) latest population growth forecasts show the region’s
annual population growth is likely to remain below the South East Queensland and Queensland
averages through to the year 2041. Noosa’s population is expected to increase by around 9,600
persons from 2020-2041, an average of just 0.7%. However, this forecast may be challenged by the
impact of the COVID-19 pandemic (as seen in accelerated population growth in 2020), particularly in
the near-term.
Figure 2.2. Projected Population
                     70,000                                                                         2.1%


                     60,000                                                                         1.8%




                                                                                                            Average annual population growth
                     50,000                                                                         1.5%
  Population (no.)




                     40,000                                                                         1.2%


                     30,000                                                                         0.9%


                     20,000                                                                         0.6%


                     10,000                                                                         0.3%


                         0                                                                           0.0%
                                 2020       2021          2026        2031         2036   2041
                              Noosa        Noosa (%)         South East Queensland (%)    Queensland (%)
Sources: ABS (2021), QGSO (2021).


2.2                      Age
Due to lifestyle factors and the region’s popularity with retirees, Noosa has a much older population
than the Greater Brisbane and Queensland medians (Table 2.1). Unfortunately, this data is based on
the Census, so more up to date figures are not available. It may be with the recent estimated
population growth that more, younger families may be moving to Noosa. The 2021 Census will
identify any changes to the age structure in the population. Any change, however, will likely be
minor.
Table 2.1. Median Age
                                        2006 2011 2016
 Noosa                                   43   46   48
 Greater Brisbane                        35   35   35
 Queensland                              36   36   37
Note: Census data not available for the South East Queensland region.
Source: ABS (2017).

Additionally, Noosa is projected to see an increase in the proportion of residents aged 65 years and
over through to the year 2041, increasing from 23% of the total population in 2016 to an estimated
33% by 2041 (Figure 2.3). This equates to residents aged 65 years and over being expected to
increase between 2016 and 2041 by 8,850 residents, a 70% increase on 2016 levels. To put this
change in perspective, the proportion of people aged 65 years and over is expected to increase from
just over 1 in 5 people to 1 out of 3 people by 2041.



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