2015-09-15 Planning & Organisation Committee Agenda

PLANNING & ORGANISATION COMMITTEE MEETING AGENDA                             15 SEPTEMBER 2015


The other key consideration is in relation to spending where Urbis indicate real per capita spending
growth is forecast to average 1.8% over the period to 2031. Urbis indicate real spending growth
over the past 20 years in Australia averaging 2.6% per annum. We do not agree with this figure,
but more importantly in recent years particularly since the GFC, real spending growth has reduced
substantially from the period in the late 1990s through to the mid 2000s. A lower real spending
growth rate would be more appropriate to use, at least for the next five year period.
Notably much of the secondary southeast sector (Coolum) is actually closer to Sunshine Plaza
than Noosa Civic. Consequently, the ability to attract significant additional business from this
sector would be limited.
In its assessment of the existing and future competitive environment the Urbis report provides
extensive analysis of existing retail floor space in the region and the associated trade distribution
and market shares. A number of further approved and proposed developments are noted but
excluded from detailed analysis, being:
    Sunshine Plaza expansion
    Masters Home Improvement complex (within the NBC)
    Peregian Village Market
    Noosa Fair Coles supermarket expansion
    Noosa Heads Bowls Club site redevelopment
Urbis reasons: The impact analysis in this report does not include these approved developments.
In the analysis which follows we are seeking to isolate the impacts resulting from the proposed
Noosa Civic development, rather than calculating cumulative impacts. In any event, given the
nature, location and scale of the approved developments, it is unlikely that the impacts resulting
from the Noosa Civic expansion will be significantly different from the calculated impacts ... .
Concern with the exclusion of these developments was raised in Council’s Further Information
Request to the applicant but the applicant did not provide further analysis. Location IQ’s review
finds:
The exclusion of the approved developments from the calculation of impacts is a significant flaw in
the analysis. The impacts from Noosa Civic can be isolated by assessing the impacts in the 2018
year, the proposed development year, rather than also looking at sales growth from 2014 to 2018.
The relevance of cumulative impacts is to assess whether existing centres can sustain the impact
from Noosa Civic over and above approved developments. Without this information, the
assessment of need is fundamentally flawed and cannot be relied upon. Even if the conclusion is
not significant, the analysis needs to be prepared. Another key reason why these approved
developments need to be taken into account is that, given Urbis indicate a large proportion of the
proposed development will rely on retaining escape expenditure from the Noosa catchment. If the
expansion of Sunshine Plaza more than offsets this level of retained expenditure, then the
fundamental need and demand for the proposed development would be in question.
Location IQ also questions key aspects of Urbis’ projected sales methodologies:
Of the [expansion’s] total projected sales increase of $129 million, some $117 million is increased
spending to Noosa Civic within the trade area with the breakdown indicated as follows:
    $52.6 million transferred from other centres within the trade area.
    $64 million reduction in escape expenditure.
The remaining $12 million would be increase in sales from tourists/beyond the trade area. Of the
retention in trade area residents escape expenditure of $64 million, $24.7 million is attributed to
apparel spending, meaning approximately $40 million in other spending categories, besides
apparel, being retained by the proposed Noosa Civic expansion.




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