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Appendix 3- Noosa restoration assessment report- Including Expert Elicitation Minutes

Attached to the e-mail Enclosure 5-Restoration Plan.eml, inside Operational Works Application OPW17/0016.

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Report to The Thomas Foundation and Noosa Parks
Association on assessment of aquatic restoration and
management options for Noosa Estuary and Lakes

January 9, 2015




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Aims of the assessment
The Nature Conservancy (TNC), with support from The Thomas Foundation (TTF) and the
Noosa Parks Association (NPA) undertook an evaluation of options for restoration and
natural resource management of the Noosa River and Lakes system, and Laguna Bay
(hereafter referred to as Noosa Estuary).
The purpose of this assessment is to allow TTF, NPA, Noosa Shire Council, and TNC to:
i)        Consider options for the future restoration and natural resource management of the
          Noosa Estuary;
ii)       Identify further research needs to support informed decisions about these options.


This report
         Outlines the findings of the assessment.
         Describes the assessment approach.
         Provides an initial recommendation on restoration priorities.
         Proposes key next steps and science needs.
         This report is complementary to a presentation by The Nature Conservancy (Dr Eddie
          Game) and The Thomas Foundation (Rowland Hill) to the Noosa Shire Council on
          November 14, 2014.


Recommendations in brief
The restoration option considered likely to deliver the greatest improvement in the aquatic
biodiversity and fish abundance of Noosa Estuary is recreation of oyster reef habitat. We
considered restoration options as distinct from options that involved the management of
activities within Noosa Estuary, a number of which are described in the report.
Many oyster species naturally form reef structures where large numbers of oysters are
growing on top of the shells of older oysters, forming a consolidated reef (Figure 1). Where
they exist, oyster (and other shellfish) reefs provide critical nursery and feeding grounds for
fish and crab populations, increasing the biodiversity and abundance of aquatic resources in
the surrounding waters1. They also consolidate sediment, improve water quality, and can
increase the productivity of other nearby habitats such as seagrass and mangroves2.
We anticipate that oyster reef restoration would focus on Saccostrea glomerata (Sydney
rock oyster, see Figure 2) as this is the most abundant native oyster in Noosa Estuary. There
is also the possibility that reefs could be developed using may be multi-species including
others that are found in Noosa Estuary such as Isognomon ephippium (Rounded Tooth pearl
oyster, see Figure 3). The reconstruction of Saccostrea glomerata reefs has not to our
knowledge been done before so any attempt to do this in Noosa Estuary would be
somewhat experimental but also of international significance.


1
  Peterson CH, Grabowski JH, Powers SP. 2003. Estimated enhancement of fish production resulting from restoring oyster reef habitat:
Quantitative valuation. Marine Ecology Progress Series 264: 249–264.
2
  Grabowski, J.H., et al., 2012. Economic valuation of ecosystem services provided by oyster reefs. Bioscience 62(10): p. 900-909.

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Figure 1 Reconstructed oyster reef in Mobile Bay, Alabama.


The principal reasons why oyster reefs were considered by the team of experts to be the
priority habitat restoration activity are that Noosa Estuary has extensive mangrove habitat,
and a reasonable amount of seagrass habitat, such that investment in increasing the area of
these habitats is likely to be subject to diminishing returns. In contrast, reefs formed from
oysters appear likely to have been a historical component of Noosa Estuary3 but are now
almost entirely missing. As such, restoring oyster reef habitat is likely to make an important
contribution to restoring the ecology of Noosa Estuary. Additionally, oysters still exist in
Noosa Estuary and appear on most hard structures (e.g., wharf pylons, see Figure 2) and in
some places on the substrate (e.g., Weyba Creek), suggesting that water quality is unlikely
to be a limiting factor in the development of oyster reefs and that reef restoration has a
reasonable chance of success.
In order to more thoroughly evaluate the potential for oyster reef restoration in Noosa
Estuary, it would be a priority to investigate current rates and distribution of oyster
recruitment within the estuary.
These recommendations are not an indication of TNC’s commitment to further work in the
Noosa Estuary.




3
 Beck, M., D. R. Brumbaugh, L. Airoldi, A. Carranza, L. D. Coen, C. Crawford, O. Defeo, G. J. Edgar, B. Hancock, M. C. Kay, H. S. Lenihan, M.
W. Luckenback, C. L. Toropova, G. Zhang, and X. Guo. 2011. Oyster reefs at risk and recommendations for conservation, restoration, and
management. Bioscience 61:107-116.


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Figure 2 Sydney rock oysters (Saccostrea glomerata) on a concrete wall in Noosa Sound.




Figure 3 Rounded Tooth pearl oyster (Isognomon ephippium) from Weyba Creek, Noosa.

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Assessment approach
To provide a rapid and efficient assessment of restoration and management options for
Noosa Estuary, TNC used an expert driven approach. The assessment was centred around a
two day workshop (October 30 & 31, 2014) facilitated by TNC Senior Scientist Dr Eddie
Game and based on the process of Structured Decision Making. Structured Decision Making
is a process that emphasizes the rapid and effective generation and evaluation of options,
while trying to minimize the numerous psychological traps and biases that commonly
present in assessments based on expert judgement4. Ten expert participants were chosen
based on their substantive knowledge of topics related to the ecology of Noosa Estuary, the
management and restoration of estuary habitats, and the ability to apply this knowledge to
the case of Noosa Estuary. The full list and bios of experts who participated in the workshop
is provided in Appendix 1. A number of additional experts were also consulted prior to the
workshop as part of preparing the background material contained in Appendix 2. These
additional experts are also identified at the bottom of Appendix 1.


Restoration and management objectives and indicators
Identifying a set of restoration and management options depends on having clear objectives
that the options are desired to work towards. The objective provided to the experts at the
workshop were:


     1. To increase fish abundance in Noosa Estuary.
     2. To increase aquatic biodiversity in Noosa Estuary.
     3. To ensure the estuary's biodiversity and ecological health match that of the
        terrestrial biosphere


When using multiple experts to evaluate the consequence that any restoration or
management option is likely to have for these objectives, it is essential that all experts are
judging the same thing. In the case of objective #1 above for example, one expert might be
evaluating the consequence of mangrove restoration for bream whereas another might be
thinking of whiting; this will lead them to evaluate the consequence differently. This
problem is known in expert elicitation as underspecification. To address this issue, the
experts were asked to come up with a set of indicators that would reflect the intention of
the objectives, and for which consequences would be evaluated separately. A large number
of possible indicators were considered with those selected being considered representative
of different aspects of Noosa’s aquatic biodiversity and ecology, and the range of ways that
the people interact with this biodiversity. Table 1 provides the list of chosen indicators along
with the rationale behind their selection.



4
 Gregory, R., L. Failing, M. Harstone, G. Long, T. McDaniels, and D. Ohlson. 2012. Structured Decision Making: A Practical Guide to
Environmental Management Choices. Wiley-Blackwell, Oxford, UK.



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Table 2 List of indicators used for the evaluation of restoration and management options in
Noosa Estuary along with the rationale for their selection.
Indicator                   Rationale
School prawn (Metapenaeus   School prawns are a critical part of the Noosa Estuary ecosystem.
macleayi) abundance         Their entire lifecycle occurs within the estuary and as detritivores
                            they play a crucial role in converting detritus (mainly organic material
                            in lake sediments) into useful energy for a wide range of estuary
                            species. School prawns are a key food source for many fish species
                            and probably one of the key drivers of fish productivity in the Noosa
                            system. They can be both commercially and recreationally harvested.
Bream (Acanthopagrus sp.)   Bream represent one of the principal recreational fishing species in
abundance                   the Noosa Estuary, and are also characteristic of a range of fish
                            species that utilize structured habitats within the estuary, like fallen
                            logs, reefs, and mangroves.
Whiting (Sillago sp.)       Whiting are an important recreational fish species but are also
abundance                   important for the visual perception of fish abundance in the estuary
                            as they are the species visitors will see most commonly close to
                            shore. Whiting are also characteristic of fish that predominately
                            utilize sandy and soft bottom habitats.
Mullet (Mugil cephalus)     Mullet are an important commercial and recreational fish species in
abundance                   Noosa Estuary. Like school prawns, mullet are detritivores so play the
                            same important role in nutrient cycling in the estuary, and also
                            between the estuary and nearby surf zone. Mullet availability within
                            the estuary is likely to be a major driver for the abundance of other
                            large fish species.
Bird (various species)      The abundance of bird species that use the estuary in different ways
abundance                   (such are raptors and wading birds) can be a good indicator of the
                            availability of good quality habitat and a healthy, productive
                            ecosystem. They are also one of the most visible estuary fauna and
                            valued highly be visitors.
Yabby (Trypaea              Marine yabbies are an important part of sand and mudflat
australiensis) abundance    ecosystems. They are also an important bait source for recreational
                            fishing.
Crab (various species)      Crabs of various species occupy all the aquatic habitats of Noosa
abundance                   Estuary. Some, like mud crabs, are important recreational species,
                            but all crabs represent an important ecosystem component as a key
                            food source for many fish species.
Aquatic species diversity   The overall diversity of species in the estuary is a good indication of
                            ecosystem health and the diversity of healthy habitats.




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Restoration and management options
One of the main purposes of the expert workshop was to identify the range of potential
restoration and/or management options that could be considered in an effort to achieve the
objectives outlined above. Evaluating a diverse set of alternative options is at the heart of
good science-based decision making. To this end, the expert participants were asked to
think broadly and freely about restoration and management options, and were explicitly
instructed not to consider the socio-political feasibility or desirability of the options. This
was done to limit the risk that experts would prematurely discard potential options because
of perceived socio-political feasibility issues. Although societal values must be a critical part
of any decision about restoration and management of Noosa Estuary, we did not believe
that this group of experts were the right people to consider such values, especially in the
absence of community consultation. Instead, the experts were asked only to consider the
technical feasibility of proposed options. It is important, therefore, to be clear that these
options do not constitute recommendations, only the set of possible options that were
identified and evaluated in the workshop.
A total of 14 options were identified (see Table 2). Broadly, these include 7 restoration
options and 7 options that focus on management of existing activities within Noosa Estuary.
These options are moderately specific, which was necessary so that experts were conceiving
of the same thing during their subsequent evaluations. This, however, means that there are
likely multiple ways to execute each of these options. The 14 options span a wide range of
habitats and activities, and while not exhaustive, is likely to represent most of the spectrum
as far as types of aquatic restoration and management that could occur in Noosa.




Table 2 Restoration and management options identified during the expert workshop.
Option                    Key actions
                                           Restoration options
Restoration of seagrass    Restore seagrass habitat through improved control and redesign (e.g.,
                            swing moorings) of boat moorings
Oyster reef restoration    Create oyster reefs initially in Weyba Creek and Lake Weyba
Living shorelines          Replace hardened shoreline protection with structures that incorporate
                            mangroves and oyster reefs
                           Improve biological connectivity and extent of habitat mosaic between
                            Noosa and Tewantin
Provide habitat/hard       Sub-tidal reef structures in the main channel between Noosa and Tewantin
substrate stepping         Improve biological connectivity through increase hard substrate and
stones                      habitat mosaics
Prawn restocking           Restocking of prawns into the lakes and river
Restoration of Kin Kin     Assess current inputs and status of catchment
catchment                  Improved land management practices
Habitat provision for      Improve habitat availability for iconic species raptor species by
Raptors                     supplemental feeding
                           Local education campaign and initiative


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                                          Management options
North Shore                Create a “Restoration Zone” to restrict access
management/vehicle         Provide a buffer between recreational and commercial activities
closure                    Ensure that any conservation zone includes both terrestrial dunes, beach
                            and near-shore areas
Wake management            Manage boat speed and wake
“between the lakes”        Improve commercial boat design
Estuary zoning             Reduce the recreational catch
(emphasis on rec.          Increase catch and release programs including training / education
fishing)                   Provide support for improved fish habitat
                           Permitting
Cessation of               Closure of fishing areas particularly between the lakes
commercial prawn           Buyback of fishing licences
trawling                   Modified fishing practices
                           Decreased or limited catch (size or timing)
Better management of       Limit catch on Noosa North Shore
commercial mullet          Provide pathways to increase product value
fishery                    Modify fishing practices - education
Transform gill-net         Transform gill net industry to high value line caught industry
fishery to higher value
fishery
Stormwater                 Improve the quality of water runoff flowing into the estuary through
management                  wetlands and other design features such as flow restrictors and pollution
                            traps




Expert evaluation of options
Following the identification of the options presented above, the experts were asked to
provide their judgment on the likely consequence of these options for the indicators
identified earlier. Initially judgement was sought on whether undertaking the activities
associated with an option would lead directly to an increase (or possibly a decrease) in the
abundance of each indicator group, and then subsequently the relative magnitude of the
likely increase. These assessments are presented in Table 3.
In addition to assessing the consequence of options for the ecological indicators, the experts
were asked to identify other benefits likely to be associated with undertaking each option.
For each option, the expert group also identified some key uncertainties associated with the
option. These uncertainties can help flag priority science tasks needed in order to more
thoroughly evaluate that option. Where possible, the experts were asked for indicative costs
of the options. In most cases these costs were highly uncertain because there were different
ways that each option could be executed and financed. Finally, for each option the experts
were asked to conduct a pre-mortem. This is a risk identification exercise where each person
was asked to imagine that the option had been undertaken and it was now 5 years into the
future and something had gone very wrong with the project. Each person is then asked to
describe what they imagined went wrong with the project. This has proved an effective way


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to elicit risk information5. These additional pieces of assessment are also presented in Table
3.


Evaluation results
Based on the judgement of the experts involved in the workshop, the two options likely to
have the largest positive impact on the suite of indicators species are, oyster reef
restoration, and cessation of commercial prawn trawling (Table 3). Compared with the other
restoration activities considered, the recreation of oyster reefs within Noosa Estuary was
predicted to ultimately lead to relatively larger increases in important, structure using
recreational fish species (represent by bream in the indicator list), crab populations, and the
overall biodiversity of the estuary. The principal reasons why oyster reefs were considered
likely to have relatively larger impact than restoration of other habitats such as mangroves
and seagrass, is that that Noosa Estuary has retained a large amount of intact mangrove
habitat (Figure 4) such that it is unlikely to be a limiting feature in the system. Therefore
restoring additional mangrove habitat, while positive, is likely to only have a small impact on
the objectives considered here. Similarly for seagrass; there is a reasonable amount of
seagrass remaining in Noosa Estuary, and only a small number of places where additional
restoration would likely be successful.




Figure 4 Healthy mangrove habitat, Lake Cootharaba, Noosa.


5
 Game, E. T., J. A. Fitzsimons, G. Lipsett-Moore, and E. McDonald-Madden. 2013. Subjective risk assessment for planning conservation
projects. Environmental Research Letters 8:045027.



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                                                                                                                                                                                                                            10




      Table 3 Expert evaluation of restoration and management options for Noosa Estuary. The predicted consequence for a range of indictors is illustrated with arrows. The direction of the arrow indicates
      either a predicted increase or decrease, and the relative size of the arrow provides a relative measure of the extent of the change likely as a result of each option (i.e., a larger arrow means a relatively
      larger expected impact for that indicator). Also presented for each option are associated ancillary benefits, key uncertainties, an estimate of cost, and potential risks to success of the option.

Option         Key actions              Consequence for chosen indicators                                                         Other benefits             Key uncertainties          Cost            Pre-mortem
                                                                                                                                                                                        estimate
                                        Prawns     Bream      Whiting     Mullet     Birds      Yabbies Crabs          Biodiver
                                                                                                                       sity
Restoration     Restore seagrass                                                                                                  Increased fisheries       Negative sentiment       $5k per          Community backlash and
of seagrass      habitat through                                                                                                    productivity               from community who       boat              lack of support
                 improved control                                                                                                  Increased availability     want “clean” sandy       mooring          Vessels anchoring rather
                 and redesign (e.g.,
                 swing moorings) of
                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                    of habitat
                                                                                                                                   Carbon
                                                                                                                                                               beaches rather than
                                                                                                                                                               seagrass
                                                                                                                                                                                                          than using available
                                                                                                                                                                                                          seagrass friendly
                 boat moorings                                                         *#                                          sequestration                                                         moorings
                                                                                                                                   Improved
                                                                                                                                    management of
                                                                                                                                    boat mooring areas
Oyster reef     Create oyster reefs                                                                                               Improved water            Possible disease         $100K per        No community support
restoration      initially in Weyba                                                                                                 quality                    transmission             year              or community backlash
                 Creek and Lake                                                                                                    Sediment                  Natural recruitment      initially for    Increased oyster disease



                                                                                                          
                 Weyba                                                                                                              stabilisation              rates                    5 year            transmission

                                                                                                                                Citizen engagement
                                                                                                                                   Increased fishing
                                                                                                                                                              Survival of oysters
                                                                                                                                                              Design of reefs
                                                                                                                                                                                        pilot then
                                                                                                                                                                                        ongoing
                                                                                                                                                                                                         Increased E. coli
                                                                                                                                                                                                         No impact on the
                                                                                         *                                          aggregation               Future magnitude of                        receiving environment
                                                                                                                                   Enhancing existing         water quality                             Loss of other habitats
                                                                                                                                    mangrove and               improvements
                                                                                                                                    seagrass habitat
Living          Replace hardened                                                                                                  Increased public          Engineering viability    $1000+           Exacerbate erosion in
shorelines       shoreline protection                                                                                               awareness and             Public support through                     some areas
                 with structures that                                                                                               ownership                  shoreline stewardship                     Community backlash
                 incorporate                                                                                                       Erosion protection                                                   Inability to manage
                 mangroves and
                 oyster reefs
                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                   Improved natural
                                                                                                                                    aesthetics
                                                                                                                                                                                                          marine plants due to
                                                                                                                                                                                                          legislative implications
                Improve biological                                                      *                                         Atonement for past
                 connectivity and                                                                                                   actions
                 extent of habitat
                 mosaic between
                 Noosa and Tewantin
Provide         Sub-tidal reef                                                                                                    Oysters recruiting        Engineering              $100k+           Navigation hazards
habitat/hard     structures in the                                                                                                  naturally and              complexities /                            Fish attraction not
substrate
stepping
                 main channel
                 between Noosa and                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                    associated benefits
                                                                                                                                   Increased
                                                                                                                                                               modified
                                                                                                                                                               hydrodynamics
                                                                                                                                                                                                          production
                                                                                                                                                                                                         Invasion by exotic
stones           Tewantin                                                                *                                          recruitment of some       Meta-population                            species
                Improve biological                                                                                                 fisheries species          dynamics                                  Suffocate action
                 connectivity                                                                                                      Fish aggregation          Size and spacing of                       Reduction in soft


       – Positive effect on indicator species                            * shorebirds (e.g. migratory waders, oystercatchers etc.); # raptors; ^ seabirds; § consequence not able to be assessed due to a

       – Negative effect on indicator species                              lack of specificity about the actions to be taken

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Option          Key actions                 Consequence for chosen indicators                                                         Other benefits            Key uncertainties           Cost        Pre-mortem
                                                                                                                                                                                            estimate
                                            Prawns     Bream     Whiting    Mullet       Birds      Yabbies Crabs          Biodiver
                                                                                                                           sity
                  through increase                                                                                                                                habitat blocks                         sediment habitat
                  hard substrate and                                                                                                                             What substrate to use
                  habitat mosaics
Prawn            Restocking of                                                                                                        Improved water           Unclear as to the         Requires     Displacement of existing
restocking        prawns into the                                                                                                       quality                   current status of the     further       species
                  lakes and river                                                                                                      Improved benthic          stocks and therefore if   info         Change in fishing
                                                                                                                                        habitat quality and       restocking would be                     practices / target species

                                                                                                                                 sediment turnover
                                                                                                                                       Increased
                                                                                                                                                                  required
                                                                                                                                                                 Current carrying
                                                                                                                                                                                                         No measurable
                                                                                                                                                                                                          improvement in fisheries
                                                                                                                                        recreational fishing      capacity of lakes and
                                                                                                                                        benefits through DIY      river
                                                                                                                                        bait and target          Displacement of rare
                                                                                                                                        species                   species
Restoration      Assess current                                                                                                       Improved water           Current condition of      Initial      No measurable
of Kin Kin        inputs and status of                                                                                                  quality                   the catchment             $100k; up     improvement in fisheries
catchment         catchment                                                                                                            Improved                 Extent of erosion /       to
                 Improved land
                                                                     § § § § § §                                                   connectivity for fish     accretion                 $1M+for
                  management                   §          §                                                                             species                                             actions
                  practices                                                                                                            “Insurance” for
                                                                                                                                        other restoration
                                                                                                                                        options
Habitat          Improve habitat                                                                                                      Visual indicator of      Current carrying          $100K        Birds don’t use artificial
provision for     availability for iconic                                                                                               restoration success       capacity for raptors in                 roosts
Raptors           species raptor                                                                                                       Increased                 the estuary                            Not tangible benefit to
                  species by                                                                                                            community                Extent of roost use                     community

                                                                        
                  supplemental                                                                                                          engagement                                                       Possible mortality from

                                                                              
                  feeding                                                                                                              Community                                                         human interaction
                 Local education                                                            #                                          monitoring program
                  campaign and                                                                                                         Estuarine health
                  initiative                                                                                                            indicator
                                                                                                                                       Increased tourism
                                                                                                                                        opportunities
North Shore  Create a                                                                                                                 Increase in fish         Size of impact            $200K        Community backlash
management    “Restoration Zone”                                                                                                        movement / energy        Moving fishing                         No measurable
/vehicle      to restrict access                                                                                                        transfer between          pressure elsewhere                      improvement in fisheries
closure      Provide a buffer                                                                                                          estuary and coast                                                Poaching

                                                                                 
              between                                                                                                                  Possible increased
              recreational and
              commercial
                                                                                *          #^
                                                                                                                                       larval fish supply /
                                                                                                                                        food for other
              activities                                                                                                                species
             Ensure that any                                                                                                          Reduced fishing
              conservation zone                                                                                                         pressure
              includes both


       – Positive effect on indicator species                              * shorebirds (e.g. migratory waders, oystercatchers etc.); # raptors; ^ seabirds; § consequence not able to be assessed due to a

       – Negative effect on indicator species                                  lack of specificity about the actions to be taken

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                      12


Option         Key actions             Consequence for chosen indicators                                                         Other benefits            Key uncertainties            Cost       Pre-mortem
                                                                                                                                                                                        estimate
                                       Prawns     Bream     Whiting    Mullet       Birds       Yabbies Crabs         Biodiver
                                                                                                                      sity
             terrestrial dunes,
             beach and near-
             shore areas
Wake        Manage boat speed                                                                                                    Increased aesthetic      Implementation ability     ?           Lost investment due to
management   and wake                                                                                                              value                    How to achieve                          failure
“between    Improve                                                                                                              Improved safety for       outcomes                               Loss of shoreline access
the lakes”   commercial boat                                                                                                       all users                Policing                                and appreciation of the
             design                                                                                                               Shoreline                                                         estuary

                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                   stabilisation through
                                                                                                                                   wake management
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Increased pressure
                                                                                                                                                                                                     elsewhere
                                                                                       *#                                         Integrity of
                                                                                                                                   ecotourism ventures
                                                                                                                                  Improved water
                                                                                                                                   filtration/quality


Estuary        Reduce the                                                                                                        Improved fishing         Needs to be part of        ?           Community backlash
zoning          recreational catch                                                                                                 practice resulting in     the package for                        No measurable
(emphasis on  Increase catch and                                                                                                  improved fish stocks      improved commercial                     improvement in fisheries
rec. fishing)   release programs                                                                                                                             fishing management
                including training /
                education                   
                                                   * 
                                                                                     #^
                                                                                                                                                            Community response
                                                                                                                                                            Increased fishing
               Provide support for                                                                                                                          pressure from
                improved fish                                                                                                                                elsewhere
                habitat
               Permitting
Cessation of  Closure of fishing                                                                                                 Improved water           Actual catch rates and                 Violence and backlash
commercial      areas particularly                                                                                                 quality                   current stock                           from fishing community
prawn           between the lakes                                                                                                 Improved benthic          assessment                             No recovery of stocks



                                             
trawling       Buyback of fishing                                                                                                 habitat quality and      Possibility for natural
                licences                                                                                                           sediment turnover         recovery
               Modified fishing                                                                                                  Increased
                practices                                                                                                          recreational fishing
               Decreased or
                                                                                       *#                                          benefits through DIY
                limited catch (size                                                                                                bait and target
                or timing)                                                                                                         species
Better         Limit catch on                                                                                                    Improved efficiency      Area too limited in size   ?           Violence and backlash
management      Noosa North Shore                                                                                                  in commercial             to have a measurable                    from fishing community
of
commercial
mullet
               Provide pathways to
                increase product
                value                                                                   #^
                                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                   practices
                                                                                                                                  Improved water
                                                                                                                                   quality
                                                                                                                                                             impact on local stocks
                                                                                                                                                            Shifting fishing
                                                                                                                                                             pressure elsewhere -
                                                                                                                                                                                                    No recovery of stocks


fishery        Modify fishing
                                                                                       *                                          Increased                 mullet all caught
                practices -                                                                                                        commercial value of       further north


       – Positive effect on indicator species                         * shorebirds (e.g. migratory waders, oystercatchers etc.); # raptors; ^ seabirds; § consequence not able to be assessed due to a

       – Negative effect on indicator species                             lack of specificity about the actions to be taken

Page 13

                                                                                                                                                                                                                     13


Option         Key actions            Consequence for chosen indicators                                                         Other benefits             Key uncertainties           Cost       Pre-mortem
                                                                                                                                                                                       estimate
                                      Prawns     Bream     Whiting    Mullet       Birds      Yabbies Crabs          Biodiver
                                                                                                                     sity
                education                                                                                                         product                   Actual catch rates and
                                                                                                                                 Increased habitat          current stock
                                                                                                                                  value and                  assessment
                                                                                                                                  productivity
                                                                                                                                 Reduction in habitat
                                                                                                                                  destruction
Transform       Transform gill net                                                                                              Improved efficiency       Current fish stocks and   ?           Backlash from
gill-net         industry to high                                                                                                 in commercial              impact of fishing                      commercial fishers
fishery to       value line caught                                                                                                practices                  practice                              Inability to adopt new
higher value
fishery
                 industry
                                                                                                                             Improved water
                                                                                                                                  quality
                                                                                                                                                                                                    fishing practices
                                                                                                                                                                                                   No improvement in fish
                                                                                                                                 Increased                                                         stocks
                                                                                                                                  commercial value of
                                                                                                                                  product
Stormwater  Improve the quality                                                                                                 Enhance biogenic          Magnitude of              $500K+      No tangible benefit to
management   of water runoff                                                                                                      habitat quality and        improvement possible                   water quality
             flowing into the                                                                                                     resilience due to          given there is limited
             estuary through                                                                                                      reduced external           future development
             wetlands and other          §          §          §           §          §          §          §           §         pressures
             design features such                                                                                                Increased viability of
             as flow restrictors                                                                                                  restoration success
             and pollution traps




       – Positive effect on indicator species                        * shorebirds (e.g. migratory waders, oystercatchers etc.); # raptors; ^ seabirds; § consequence not able to be assessed due to a

       – Negative effect on indicator species                            lack of specificity about the actions to be taken

Page 14

In contrast, Noosa Estuary has very little hard substrate such as biogenic reefs. Reefs formed
from oysters appear likely to have been a historical component of Noosa Estuary6,7,8 but are
now almost entirely missing. As such, restoring oyster reef habitat is likely to make an
important contribution to restoring the ecology of Noosa Estuary and particularly its
fisheries productivity. Other notable benefits of oyster reef restoration would likely include
improved water quality because of the filtration conducted by oysters 9, enhanced
productivity of existing mangroves and seagrass species as the connection between habitats
is important for many species, additional recreational fishing areas as many fish are likely to
be attracted to oyster reefs for feeding, and numerous citizen engagement opportunities in
their development and subsequent monitoring.
Oyster reef restoration would likely focus on Saccostrea glomerata (Sydney rock oyster, see
Figure 2) as this is the most abundant native oyster in Noosa Estuary. There is also the
possibility that reefs could be developed using may be multi-species including others that
are found in Noosa Estuary such as Isognomon ephippium (Rounded Tooth pearl oyster, see
Figure 3). Because the reconstruction of Saccostrea glomerata reefs has not previously been
undertaken, there are uncertainties around the design of the restored reefs (e.g., what
engineered structures to use), and the magnitude of the benefits that could be expected.
Similarly, although oysters are naturally present in the Noosa Estuary, it is uncertain
whether recruitment and survival of oysters is adequate to re-establish reefs without
hatchery raised spat. Another risk is that the establishment of large number of oysters in the
estuary could lead to increased incidence of oyster disease that may harm the existing
oyster populations in the estuary.
With regard to managing existing activities within Noosa Estuary, the option likely to deliver
the greatest benefit towards the objectives identified here was the cessation of commercial
prawn trawling. The principal reasons for this predicted impact are that the school prawns
targeted by the commercial fishery are a critical part of the Noosa Estuary aquatic
ecosystem (as identified in Table 1), and their current abundance is likely to be much
reduced from historical levels. Additionally, the use of beam-trawls to capture the prawns is
likely to do major damage to benthic habitats, such that cessation of trawling will deliver a
range of fisheries related benefits through both the increased abundance of prawns and the
increased integrity of benthic habitats in the estuary. Because any future management of
the prawn fishery is unlikely to involve either TTF or TNC, we have considered it further in
our recommendations.
For the options that involved restoration of the Kin Kin catchment and storm water
management, the experts involved did not feel able to evaluate the likely consequences
because the current level of impact each of these has on the Noosa Estuary aquatic
environment was not clearly known.



6
  Beck, M., D. R. Brumbaugh, L. Airoldi, A. Carranza, L. D. Coen, C. Crawford, O. Defeo, G. J. Edgar, B. Hancock, M. C. Kay, H. S. Lenihan, M.
W. Luckenback, C. L. Toropova, G. Zhang, and X. Guo. 2011. Oyster reefs at risk and recommendations for conservation, restoration, and
management. Bioscience 61:107-11
7
   Brown, E. R. 2000. Cooloola Coast: Noosa to Fraser Island: The Aboriginal and Settlers Histories of a Unique Environment. Univ. of
Queensland Press.
8
  Lergessner, J. G. 2006. Oysterers of Moreton Bay. James Lergessner.
9
   Zu Ermgassen, P. S., M. D. Spalding, R. E. Grizzle, and R. D. Brumbaugh. 2013. Quantifying the loss of a marine ecosystem service:
filtration by the eastern oyster in US estuaries. Estuaries and coasts 36:36-43.



                                                                                                                                          14

Page 15

Rapid field assessment
In addition to the expert workshop, TNC undertook a rapid preliminary field assessment in
Noosa Estuary. The assessment was facilitated by the Noosa Parks Association. The purpose
of this assessment was to look at potential locations for habitat restoration activities, with
an emphasis on oyster reef restoration. The people involved in this field assessment were
Bryan DeAngelis (a coastal habitat restoration expert with TNC’s North America program),
Dr Simon Walker (a Brisbane based marine ecologist with many years’ experience working
on habitat restoration in South East Queensland estuaries), and Dr Eddie Game (marine
biologist and TNC’s lead scientist in the Asia-Pacific region).
Although there has been substantial modification of aquatic habitats in Noosa Estuary (e.g.,
the development of Hayes Island), the remaining contribution of mangrove, seagrass, and
unstructured benthic habitats (e.g., sandy bottom) is high. While the relative contributions
from each of these habitats to estuary productivity may be reduced because of external
stressors (e.g., sedimentation or pollution), there appears to be limited opportunity for
active restoration of those habitats. Regarding these mangrove and seagrass habitats,
effort would likely be better spent managing existing habitat for improved health and
resiliency, and thus ecosystem services, by reducing anthropogenic impacts.
The most noticeable lack of habitat was structured, biogenic habitat from reef-forming
bivalves. In this regard, Noosa contrasts to other nearby systems such as Pumicestone
Passage which has rather extensive intertidal shellfish reef habitat. Saccostrea glomerata
(Sydney rock oyster) was regularly observed in much of the southern portions of the
estuary, particularly in the slower moving, backwaters. Nearly all hard substrate showed
evidence of oyster settlement (Figure 5). From a restoration planning perspective, this is a
very positive sign. It hints at the possibility of potentially eliminating the need for hatchery-
derived oysters to increase reproductive output beyond recruitment-limiting
conditions. While settlement (and apparent recruitment) of oysters was observed in
multiple locations where hard substrate existed, in most instances it was restricted to the
intertidal zone (e.g., top and middle panel Figure 5). This effect may be the result of
predation pressure of oysters that are fully sub-tidal such that oysters are found in greatest
densities in a band near the upper limit of their exposure tolerance. Should this be the case,
it is unlikely to be a limiting factor to potential oyster reef restoration works in Noosa
Estuary because many of the candidate areas for oyster restoration are intertidal.
One small sub-tidal reef was observed, being comprised on the oyster species Isognomon
ephippium (Rounded Tooth pearl oyster, see Figure 6). This was found in a deep section of
Weyba Creek and although heavily impacted by sediment, it is suggestive of the possibility
that reconstructed oyster reef may ultimately be comprised of multiple species.
Based on our field assessment, the most promising candidate sites for pilot oyster reefs
restoration are likely to be sites in Weyba Creek and Lake Weyba.




                                                                                              15

Page 16

Figure 5 Examples of oyster settlement in Noosa Estuary. Top shows oysters on bridge
pylons, middle shows oyster on wooden jetty batons, and bottom shows a juvenile oyster
on the dead shell of another bivalve species.



                                                                                   16

Page 17

Figure 6 Section of oyster reef comprised of Isognomon ephippium (Rounded Tooth pearl
oyster) found in Weyba Creek.


Recommendations and future research needs
Based on the information gathered during this assessment, our recommendation is that to
increase fish abundance and aquatic biodiversity in Noosa Estuary, the priority restoration
actions would be to pilot the development of oyster reefs. This recommendation does
indicate a commitment by TNC to be involved in an oyster reef restoration project in Noosa
Estuary. In order to make a better informed judgment about the potential and design of
these reefs, some additional research is necessary. Most urgent amongst the additional
research tasks is an assessment of current oyster settlement and recruitment in Noosa
Estuary. This research would indicate whether there is enough oyster recruitment in Noosa
Estuary to reconstruct reefs without supplement from hatcheries, and also provide
important insights into the design and placement of pilot reefs.
Based on the key uncertainties identified by the experts for a range of restoration and
management options, it was also clear that an assessment of current fish and prawn stocks
in Noosa Estuary, and a model of their harvest would be invaluable in evaluating different
management options and the potential of Noosa Estuary to sustain a boutique sustainable
seafood industry.




                                                                                        17

Page 18

Acknowledgements
The Nature Conservancy would like to thank The Thomas Foundation and the Noosa Parks
Association for providing the funding for this assessment. We would also like to thank
specifically Michael Gloster and Bryan Walsh of the Noosa Parks Association for their
invaluable assistance and input at multiple points during this assessment, and Carl Beck for
kindly making his boat available for our field assessment. Thanks also to all the experts who
shared their knowledge with us during this assessment.


Supplemental files attached to this report
Appendix 1 – List of experts that participated workshop or consulted during this assessment
Appendix 2 – Background material on Noosa Estuary prepared for the expert workshop




                                                                                          18

Page 19

Appendix 1
Expert workshop participants

Assoc. Prof. Greg Skilleter
The University of Queensland

Greg is currently a Reader in Marine Ecology at the
University of Queensland.        He is an internationally
recognised expert on assessing the mechanistic links
between coastal habitat mosaics and fisheries, including
restoration of coastal habitats following natural and man-
made impacts. Greg has previous relevant experience
working in Noosa Estuary on the impacts of dredging and
habitat creation on benthic communities (including fish and
prawns). Greg’s research group currently focus on assessing the impacts of large-scale
human influences such as climate change and nutrient enrichment on the coastal
environment. Greg provides leading expertise on the interactions between fish, prawns
and other benthic species and their coastal habitats, and a pragmatic approach to
assessing ways to improve fisheries production in the Noosa Estuary into the future.


Prof. Neil Loneragan
Murdoch University

Neil is currently a distinguished Professor of Marine Ecology and
Conservation at Murdoch University in WA and Leader of the
Environmental and Conservation Cluster. Prior to joining
Murdoch, Neil spent 14 years working for the CSIRO in fisheries
research throughout Queensland and SE Asia.                He is
internationally recognized for his work in evaluating the
significance of coastal habitats for fisheries production and
biodiversity, the spatial arrangements of habitats and their
significance for fish and crustacean communities, and how
restocking and stock enhancement can be used to rebuild marine systems. Neil has led
numerous assessments of the value of coastal habitat for fisheries in Australia and SE
Asia. In particular he was instrumental in assessing how the loss of seagrass due to a
cyclone affects fisheries production in Exmouth, WA. Neil is a member of the
International Steering Committee for the International Symposia for Stock Enhancement
and Sea Ranching (www.searanching.org). He was also on the International Advisory
Board for two interdisciplinary projects by the University of Wageningen (The
Netherlands), which assessed the sustainability of particular fishing practices in SE Asia
and the central Pacific.

Page 20

Assoc. Prof. Thomas Schlacher
The University of the Sunshine Coast

Thomas is an internationally recognised expert in coastal
ecology, focussed particularly at the interface between
estuaries and the ocean. Noosa and the Sunshine Coast is
Thomas’ backyard, and he has built a considerable body of
literature examining the impacts of humans on coastal
ecosystems and how to best manage and restore these
systems to improve condition. Of particular relevance to
this project is his research on nuisance algal blooms and
the impacts of coastal urbanisation on estuarine fisheries using accurate pollution
indicators, nutrient flow and dynamics in coastal systems, and assessing the human
impacts and restoration of sandy beaches.



Dr Emma Jackson
Central Queensland University

Emma has over 15 years experience as a seagrass ecologist
assessing the landscape ecology and effects of human
pressures on the state of structural benthic habitats
(particularly seagrass and biogenic reef) and the
subsequent changes in ecosystem function and services.
She is particularly interested in the structure and functioning of seagrass habitats at a
landscape scale (fragmentation, depth squeeze, connectivity) and is currently engaged in
the large-scale restoration of seagrass habitats in Port Curtis, including researching
methods suitable for restoration in Eastern Australia. She bridges the knowledge gap
between science and policy including assessing the conservation importance of coastal
habitats, and identifying suitable indicators for monitoring change and targets for habitat
restoration.

Page 21

Dr Melanie Bishop
Macquarie University

Melanie is a recognised expert in estuarine ecology including
assessing natural and human-mediated processes that control
coastal biodiversity and its important ecosystem functions. She
uses manipulative field experiments to investigate effects of
local and global changes, often producing results that could not
have been predicted using theoretical or modelling approaches
alone.
She brings relevant skills in restoration of estuaries, particularly
in identifying existing stressors in the system and working on
relevant solutions to reduce or remove these prior to restoration activities. She is
particularly interested in the use of bio-engineers (habitat transforming species, such as
oysters) to restore degraded habitats. Recent research highlights include providing one
of the first assessments of how positive interactions among species can maintain
biodiversity and change during environmental stressors. This research provides a useful
mechanistic understanding for restoring functional ecosystems on large scales.



Dr Paul Maxwell
Manager Science & Innovation - Healthy Waterways

Paul currently leads science and innovation at Healthy Waterways. He is
responsible for ensuring that the science underpinning the healthy
waterways assessments is rigorous and independent. He is an expert in
assessing resilience in coastal ecosystems, particularly the feedback
mechanisms that maintain the structure and function of seagrass
ecosystems. He has a background in working on integrating science,
effective communication and management, including working on the multi-disciplinary
Environmental Health Monitoring Program in SE Queensland.

Page 22

Dr Ben Diggles
Managing Director – Digsfish Services Pty Ltd

Ben provides independent aquatic animal health consulting service for the fisheries and
aquaculture industries across New Zealand, Australia, Asia and the South Pacific. He is
particularly skilled in importing, biosecurity and environmental risk assessment. He also
has extensive understanding of environmental management systems, aquatic animal
welfare, disease diagnosis in a wide range of aquatic animals, development of feeding
attractants for aquaculture and recreational fishing. Ben is collaborating with local fishing
groups to spearhead a campaign for restoration of oyster reefs in Pumicestone Passage,
SE Queensland.




Steve Skull
Regional Manager – Alluvium Consulting

Steve draws on a 20 year career in natural resource
management to work on a diverse array of projects,
spanning water resource management and planning,
environmental regulation and nature conservation for a
wide range of industries including mining and major
infrastructure providers. While working for local
government he was responsible for the development,
delivery and evaluation of environmental policies and programs covering waterway
management, climate change, biodiversity, peak oil and sustainability. Steve has also
been intimately involved with natural resource management planning and
implementation at regional scales. In South East Queensland he was the inaugural chair of
the Executive Officers Group supporting the CEOs Committee for NRM. In this role he led
the development and coordination of priority projects to ensure the successful
implementation of the SEQ NRM Plan. Throughout his career Steve’s work has been
recognised by a number of prestigious environmental awards including the International
River Foundation’s National Riverprize, the Healthy Waterways Minister’s Grand Prize and
the Banksia Awards.

Page 23

Dr Simon Walker
Director – Ecological Service Professionals Pty Ltd
Adjunct Research Associate – The University of Queensland

Simon is an aquatic ecologist with an extensive knowledge and
understanding of freshwater, estuarine and marine and issues
affecting environmental and fisheries management. He is
particularly skilled in sustainable resource management,
rehabilitation of estuarine and freshwater habitats, biodiversity
assessment and constraints mapping, and assessing the
adaptive capacity of coastal ecosystems to climate change. Simon has worked on
numerous projects that have been pivotal in environmental management decisions of
coastal developments, ports and resource projects, particularly in the effective use of
marine and freshwater resources coupled with sustainable development. He has broad
project experience throughout Australia and in developing countries in the South Pacific.
In particular he has recent relevant experience rehabilitation fish habitat in the Maroochy
River and restoring saltmarsh and mangrove habitats for the Port of Brisbane and QLD
Department of Transport and Main Roads.

Bryan DeAngelis
North America Coastal Habitat Restoration Coordinator – The Nature Conservancy

Bryan DeAngelis has been working in marine restoration , education, research in the US
and Caribbean for over a decade. Bryan spent 8 years in coastal habitat restoration as an
employee of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Habitat Restoration
Center. At NOAA Bryan gained extensive experience developing, managing, and
implementing a wide variety of habitat restoration projects and techniques, with a special
emphasis on monitoring and measuring project performance. It was with NOAA that
Bryan gained his introduction to the bivalve restoration field as the Coordinator of the
North Cape Lobster and then later the Shellfish Restoration Programs; two multi-million
dollar Natural Resource Damage Assessment projects designed to restore lobster and
bivalve resources and services lost due to a large oil spill on the south coast of Rhode
Island. In January 2013, Bryan was hired by TNC to serve as the North America Coastal
Habitat Restoration Coordinator and to serve as the Coordinator for the National
Partnership between TNC and NOAAs Community-based Restoration Program. This
Partnership with NOAA has funded nearly 150 restoration projects throughout the US and
territories. These projects span the range of habitat types from salmon habitat in the
Northwest to coral restoration in Puerto Rico, the US Virgin Islands and Hawaii, with
sponge habitat, mangrove, salt marsh, seagrass and plenty of bivalve restoration projects
in between.

Page 24

Additional experts consulted

Jock McKenzie
Coordinator – MangroveWatch Hub, Centre for Tropical Water & Aquatic Ecosystem
Research (TropWATER), James Cook University

Rob Coles
Principal Research Scientist – Centre for Tropical Water & Aquatic Ecosystem Research
(TropWATER), James Cook University

Mike Rasheed
Principal Research Scientist – Centre for Tropical Water & Aquatic Ecosystem Research
(TropWATER), James Cook University

Dr Samantha Miller
Principal Policy Officer – Queensland Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry

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