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Planning Economic Report MCU13/0087 (attachment to Email 4 of 5)
Noosa Heads Bowls Club, QLD
Retail Liquor &
Hotel Assessment
January 2013
[OCR of page images]
Noosa Heads Bowls Club, QLD
Retail Liquor &
Hotel Assessment
January 2013
QP MacroPlanDimasi
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MacroPlan Dimasi MELBOURNE SYDNEY Level 4 Level 4 356 Collins Street 39 Martin Place Melbourne VIC 3000 Sydney NSW 2000 (03) 9600 0500 (02) 9221 5211 BRISBANE PERTH Level 15 Ground Floor 111 Eagle Street; 12 St Georges Terrace Brisbane QLD 4000 Perth WA 6000 (07) 3221 8166 (08) 9225 7200 Prepared for: Coles Group MacroPlan Dimasi staff responsible for this report: Justin Malkiewicz, Senior Manager – Economics (Retail) Sophie Clark, Analyst - Queensland
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Table of contents
Introduction ........................................................................................... 2
Section 1: Background ............................................................................ 3
1.1 Regional context and site location 3
1.2 Proposed development 4
Section 2: Trade Area Analysis ................................................................. 7
2.1 Trade area definition 7
2.2 Trade area population 10
2.3 Socio-demographic profile 12
Section 3: Trade Area Spending.............................................................. 14
3.1 Retail Liquor Spending 18
Section 4: Competition .......................................................................... 19
4.1 Retail liquor competition 19
4.2 Hotel/Tavern competition 22
Section 5: Retail liquor potential ............................................................. 24
Section 6: Economic impact ................................................................... 29
6.1 Economic and social benefits 29
6.2 Employment stimulus 30
6.3 Consideration of trading impacts 32
6.4 Net community benefit 34
Noosa Heads Bowls Club, QLD
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Section 1: Background
Introduction
This report considers the market potential and impact of a proposed liquor store
and hotel (tavern style) at Noosa Heads, Queensland. The report has been
prepared in accordance with instructions received from Coles Group and is set out
in sections as follows:
• Section 1 reviews the proposed site location and development of a liquor store
and hotel from both a regional and local perspective.
• Section 2 assesses the trade area likely to be served by the proposed liquor
store and hotel, including a review of the existing and projected future
population levels (including visitor and tourist population numbers) and the
socio-demographic profile of trade area residents.
• Section 3 estimates the total retail expenditure pool generated by trade area
residents, including current and forecast levels, including a detailed breakdown
by key product group and liquor spending.
• Section 4 outlines the competitive retail environment in which the proposed
development will operates, including consideration of both core retail,
particularly liquor stores.
• Section 5 outlines our assessment of the proposed large format liquor store on
site, adjoining the Noosa Fair shopping centre and strip retail.
• Section 6 considers the economic impacts expected to flow specifically from
the proposed development, including economic benefits which are likely to
result, as well as any trading impacts or implications for existing retail facilities.
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Section 1: Background
Section 1: Background
This report presents an independent assessment of the market potential for a new
liquor store and hotel at Noosa Heads.
1.1 Regional context and site location
The suburb of Noosa Heads is situated at the northern tip of the Sunshine Coast
in Queensland. Noosa is located approximately 120 km north of the Brisbane
CBD).
Noosa is a popular year round tourist destination attracting large numbers of
domestic tourists each year. There is also a substantial residential population base
in the Noosa region, with the area particularly popular with retirees.
The subject site located at 17 Lanyana Way, Noosa Heads is adjacent to the
Noosa Fair Shopping Centre and Noosa Junction Plaza.
Noosa Fair is a single supermarket centre, located on the south-western side of
Lanyana Way, which is near the intersection of Noosa Drive and Sunshine Beach
Road. These two carriageways are the major roads into Noosa Heads. Other retail
facilities in the immediate Noosa Heads area, include:
• The IGA at Noosa Junction Plaza, just north of the proposed development.
• The retail strip, primarily along Sunshine Beach Road.
• The Hastings Street tourist strip.
The site is easily accessible via main road Noosa Drive linking to Weyba Road to
the west, Sunshine Beach Road to the east and Hastings Street to the north.
Noosa Drive is a part of State Route 6 (Cooroy to Woodford via Maroochydore)
and directly links the site to the core tourist precinct (Hastings Street). The site is
therefore easily accessible from both a regional and local perspective.
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Section 1: Background
1.2 Proposed development
Figure 1 details the proposed development plan for the site. The proposed
redevelopment involves converting the existing lawn bowls into a hotel (1,115m2)
and a First Choice Liquor store (1,180m2).
Key points to note in relation to the development plan include:
• Conversion of the existing lawn bowls (eastern wing) into a hotel.
• Conversion and extension of the lawn bowls (western wing) into a First Choice
large format liquor store.
• Development of commercial floorspace on the southern frontage to Noosa Fair.
Noosa Fair
Shopping Centre
The existing Noosa Fair centre to the south contains a large provision of core
retail facilities including a supermarket, mini-major and specialty floorspace.
There are 21 specialty retail shops provided in an open air format. As such, the
precinct already provides a strong retail destination for the nearby population.
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Section 1: Background
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[OCR of page images]
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1) Retail
Urban Area
Parklands
Rural Area O Kilometres
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Local Context
wee See
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Figure 1: Proposed Development Section 1: Background
Noosa Heads Bowls Club, QLD
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Section 2: Trade Area Analysis
This section of the report reviews the trade area that is likely to be served by the
proposed development, including a review of the current and projected population
and spending levels, as well as the socio-demographic profile of the trade area
population.
2.1 Trade area definition
The Noosa Heads trade area has been defined taking into account the following
key determining factors:
• The location of significant and well patronised retail facilities co-located and
surrounding the proposed development, including Noosa Fair (anchored by a
Coles supermarket), Noosa Junction Plaza (anchored by a Supa IGA
supermarket) and strip retailing along Sunshine Beach road.
• The location of other competitive retail facilities at Noosa Civic to the south-
west. The nearest large format liquor store is a Dan Murphy’s store located at
Noosaville, around 4.5km to the west.
• Significant physical and geographical barriers including the Noosa National Park
and Coral Sea to the east as well as extensive waterways and lakes to the east
and south.
Map 1 shows the trade area expected to be served by the proposed development.
As shown, the trade area has been defined to include a primary and secondary
sector, described as follows:
• The primary sector (PTA) extends approximately 6.5 km south to Castaways
Beach along David Low Way and 2.7 km west along Weyba Road. The primary
sector is bound to the north and east by coastal boundaries, approximately 2
km (radial) from the site. The sector includes the suburbs of Noosa Heads,
Sunshine Beach, Sunrise Beach, and Castaways Beach. One of the key factors
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Section 2: Trade area analysis
in delineating the primary sector is the access to the site from the south via
David Low Way and the restricted nature of urban development along the
southern coastal areas.
• The secondary sector (STA) includes the suburbs of Noosaville, Weyba
Downs, Peregian Beach, Tewantin and Marcus Beach. This sector is likely to
currently utilise the retail facilities within the existing Noosa Fair Shopping
Centre, and will likely also frequent the proposed development. However,
residents within this sector have a number of convenient options to undertake
retail shopping, such as Noosa Civic Shopping Centre, and are therefore likely
to utilise the retail facilities at the proposed development to a lesser extent
than primary sector residents.
The main trade area generally extends around 2km north and east to the
coastline and 6 km south and west. The trade area is also likely to receive
significant patronage and demand from visitors and tourists to the area given the
large level of hotel accommodation surrounding the site.
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Section 2: Trade area analysis
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Section 2: Trade area analysis
2.2 Trade area population
Table 2.1 details the existing and projected population levels within the identified
trade area. Population forecasts are based on a number of sources, including the
following:
• Population data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), including the
recently released results from the 2011 Census of Population & Housing; and
• Population Projections prepared by the Queensland Office of Economic and
Statistical Research, released in May 2012.
As shown, the recent and projected population levels within the Noosa Bowls Club
trade area is currently estimated at 34,540 people, including approximately
12,650 people within the primary sector.
Recent population growth throughout the Noosa Bowls Club trade area has been
moderate, with annual growth for the MTA averaging 102 residents between 2006
and 2011.
This growth trend is set to continue over the forecast period, with the trade area
population estimated to reach 35,630 people by 2026, reflecting average annual
growth of 0.1% for the MTA.
Noosa also attracts a significant tourist population as highlighted in Table 2.2.
When comparing the current estimated resident population of 34,540 residents
with the average number of visitors per day at 10,733 it is understood that
tourists add up to an additional 30% on average to the base population.
Given a large proportion of tourists and visitors to Noosa stay in self catering
accommodation, there is likely to be significant add on trade to the proposed
retail facilities estimated in the order of 20% - 30%.
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Section 2: Trade area analysis
Table 2.1
Noosa Heads Bow ls Club catchm ent population, 2006-2026*
Estim ated population Forecast population
Catchment 2006 2011 2012 2016 2021 2026
Primary Trade Area 12,410 12,570 12,650 13,170 13,370 13,520
Secondary Trade Area 21,490 21,840 21,890 22,010 22,060 22,110
Total catchm ent 33,900 34,410 34,540 35,180 35,430 35,630
Average annual grow th (no.)
Catchment 2006-11 2011-12 2012-16 2016-21 2021-26
Primary Trade Area 32 80 130 40 30
Secondary Trade Area 70 50 30 10 10
Total catchm ent 102 130 160 50 40
Average annual grow th (%)
Catchment 2006-11 2011-12 2012-16 2016-21 2021-26
Primary Trade Area 0.3% 0.6% 1.0% 0.3% 0.2%
Secondary Trade Area 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Total catchm ent 0.3% 0.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1%
*A s at June
So urce: A B S; QLD Office o f Eco no mic and Statistical Research, M ay 2012; M acro P lan Dimasi
Table 2.2
Annual visitors to Noosa (Noosa Heads, Noosaville, Tew antin)
Year ending Septem ber 2012
Category Vistor days/nights Average visitors
per annum per day
Within m ain trade area
Domestic Visitor Nights 2,560,000 7,014
Domestic Day Trips 703,000 1,926
International Visitor Nights 654,426 1,793
International Day Trips 107,047 293
Total 3,917,426 10,733
So urce: To urism Research A ustralia; M acro P lan Dimasi
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Section 2: Trade area analysis
2.3 Socio-demographic profile
Table 2.3 summarises the socio-demographic profile of trade area residents based
on the results of the 2011 Census. The socio-demographic profile compares the
trade area population to South-East Queensland averages.
• The average age of residents is 43.2 years is significantly higher than the
South-East Queensland average of 37 years. There is also a lower proportion of
residents aged 40 years and younger and the proportion of residents aged 60
years and over exceeds the South-East Queensland average by more than
10%.
• In terms of household and family structure, the trade area is similar to the
South-East Queensland average, with three (3) exceptions:
• a lower proportion of couples with dependent children;
• a higher proportion of couples without dependent children; and
• a slightly higher level of lone person households.
• The average income levels throughout the trade area appear less in
comparison to the South-East Queensland average reflecting an older ‘retired’
demographic. While household incomes are lower, a higher proportion of
disposable income is likely to be maintained. The low proportion of dependent
children coupled with the significant proportion of ‘owned’ homes -
approximately 35% within the MTA and approximately 38% within the Noosa
Heads immediate area suggest this. In turn, this has an inflationary effect on
retail spending which is reflected in section 3.
In summary, the main trade area population is generally characterised by a high
proportion of retirees who are attracted to the coastal lifestyle of the Sunshine
Coast.
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Section 2: Trade area analysis
Table 2
Noosa Heads Bow ls Club catchm ent - socio-dem ographic profile, 2011
Sectors Total Sth East Qld
Census item Primary Secondary catchm ent avg.
Per capita income $35,206 $29,316 $31,467 $34,297
Var. fro m Sth East Qld benchmark 2.6% -14.5% -8.3%
Avg. household income $78,283 $68,686 $72,316 $89,085
Var. fro m Sth East Qld benchmark -12.1% -22.9% -18.8%
Avg. household size 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.6
Age distribution (% of population)
Aged 0-14 15.9% 17.7% 17.0% 19.7%
Aged 15-19 5.5% 6.0% 5.9% 6.8%
Aged 20-29 8.8% 7.5% 8.0% 14.4%
Aged 30-39 11.2% 10.3% 10.6% 14.2%
Aged 40-49 15.2% 14.6% 14.8% 14.3%
Aged 50-59 15.6% 14.3% 14.8% 12.3%
Aged 60+ 27.8% 29.6% 28.9% 18.4%
Average age 43.2 43.2 43.2 37.0
Housing status (% of households)
Ow ner/purchaser 61.5% 65.9% 64.3% 65.3%
Renter 36.2% 32.6% 34.0% 33.8%
Other 2.3% 1.5% 1.8% 0.9%
Birthplace (% of population)
Australian born 73.7% 75.6% 74.9% 73.9%
Overseas born 26.3% 24.4% 25.1% 26.1%
Family type (% of households)
Couple w ith dep't children 34.8% 37.5% 36.4% 45.5%
Couple w ith non-dep't child. 5.0% 5.7% 5.4% 7.0%
Couple w ithout children 32.5% 31.0% 31.5% 23.8%
One parent w ith dep't child. 10.3% 10.3% 10.3% 9.7%
One parent w non-dep't child. 2.7% 3.5% 3.2% 3.4%
Other family 0.8% 0.6% 0.7% 1.2%
Lone person 14.0% 11.5% 12.4% 9.3%
So urce: A B S Census o f P o pulatio n & Ho using, 2011; M acro P lan Dimasi
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Section 3: Trade Area Spending
Chart 3.1 illustrates the per capita spending profile of residents within the trade
area, indicating generally above average retail spending across all categories as
compared with benchmarks for South East Queensland.
Packaged liquor is currently well above the South East Queensland Benchmark at
$785 and $593 respectively.
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Section 3: Trade area spending
Chart 3.1
Noosa Heads Bow ls Club catchm ent - retail spending per person, 2011/12*
Noosa Heads Bowls Club catchment
Total retail
Sth East Qld
$16,000
13,870
$14,000 12,358
$12,000
$10,000
7,573
$8,000 6,949
6,297
5,409
$6,000
$4,000
$2,000
$0
Total Food Total Non-food Total Retail
Noosa Heads Bowls Club catchment
Food Sth East Qld
$6,000 5,495
$5,000 4,722
$4,000
$3,000
$2,000 1,634
1,292
785
$1,000 593
$0
Other Packaged Liquor Food Catering
Noosa Heads Bowls Club catchment
Liquor
$900 Sth East Qld
785
$800
$700
593
$600
$500
$400 353
$300 236 211 219
197
$200 163
$100
$0
Beer Wine Spirits Total Liquor
*Including GST
So urce: M arketInfo ; M acro P lan Dimasi
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Section 3: Trade area spending
Table 3.1 the shows the projected retail spending capacity of the Noosa Heads
trade area population over the forecast period to 2026, taking into account
population growth as detailed previously in section 2. Spending forecasts exclude
retail inflation to show only real spending terms.
Table 3.1
Noosa Heads Bow ls Club catchm ent - retail expenditure ($M), 2012-2026*
Forecast retail spend ($M) Avg. ann. grow th
Catchment 2012 2016 2021 2026 ($M) (%)
Primary Trade Area 190 204 215 226 3 1.2%
Secondary Trade Area 278 288 300 311 2 0.8%
Total catchm ent 469 492 515 537 5 1.0%
*excluding inflatio n & including GST
So urce: M arketInfo ; M acro P lan Dimasi
As shown, the total retail spending market generated by the trade area population
is currently estimated at over $478 million, including $194 million from
throughout the primary sector. By 2016 these spending levels are projected to
grow to approximately $502 million and $208 million respectively.
Table 3.2 then presents a detailed break-up of the projected retail expenditure by
retail category. Spending on take-home food, packaged liquor and groceries (FLG)
is the largest category, accounting for around 45% of total retail expenditure. The
remainder of total retail expenditure includes spending on the following
categories:
• Food catering – all expenditure at cafes and restaurants and take-away food
stores. The combination of FLG expenditure and food catering expenditure is
referred to as total food expenditure.
• Apparel – all expenditure on clothing, footwear, fashion accessories and
jewellery.
• Household goods – including all expenditure on homewares such as crockery,
cutlery, linen, as well as home appliances, electronic goods, etc.
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Section 3: Trade area spending
• Leisure retail – expenditure on books, music, sporting equipment and the like.
• General retail – expenditure on pharmacy goods, toys florists, pets.
• Retail services – including hair & beauty, optometry, key cutting, etc.
Table 3.2
Noosa Heads Bow ls Club catchm ent - retail expenditure by product group ($M), 2012-2026*
Year ending FLG Food Apparel Household Leisure General Retail
June catering goods retail services
2012 212 44 52 91 24 33 13
2013 215 44 52 92 25 34 13
2014 217 45 53 93 25 34 13
2015 220 46 53 94 25 35 13
2016 223 46 54 95 25 35 13
2017 225 47 54 96 26 36 13
2018 227 48 55 97 26 36 13
2019 229 48 55 97 26 37 13
2020 231 49 55 98 26 37 13
2021 233 49 56 99 26 37 14
2022 236 50 56 100 27 38 14
2023 238 50 57 100 27 38 14
2024 240 51 57 101 27 39 14
2025 242 51 57 102 27 39 14
2026 244 52 58 102 27 40 14
Average annual grow th ($M)
2012-2026 2 1 0 1 0 0 0
Average annual grow th (%)
2012-2026 1.0% 1.3% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 1.3% 0.8%
*excluding inflatio n & including GST
So urce: M arketInfo ; M acro P lan Dimasi
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Section 3: Trade area spending
3.1 Retail Liquor Spending
Table 3.3 then details our estimates of sales potential for retail liquor by each key
liquor category, namely beer, wine and spirits, within the trade area.
Table 3.3
Noosa Heads Bow ls Club trade area - packaged liquor spend, 2013-2021*
Year ending Forecast liquor spend ($M)
June Beer Wine Spirits Total
2012 8.0 11.9 6.7 26.5
2013 8.1 12.1 6.7 26.9
2014 8.2 12.2 6.8 27.2
2015 8.3 12.4 6.9 27.6
2016 8.4 12.5 7.0 27.9
2017 8.5 12.7 7.1 28.2
2018 8.5 12.8 7.1 28.5
2019 8.6 12.9 7.2 28.7
2020 8.7 13.0 7.3 29.0
2021 8.8 13.2 7.3 29.3
Average annual grow th ($M)
2012-2021 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3
Average annual grow th (%)
2012-2021 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1%
*co nstant do llars & including GST
So urce: M arketInfo ; M acro P lan Dimasi
Forecasted growth in liquor spending appears to be constant leading up to 2021
with an average annual increase of 1.1%. Total liquor spending is expected to
increase from $26.5 million currently, to $29.3 million by 2021.
Wine sales represent the highest majority of liquor spending, accounting for
around 45% of the total liquor spend. This is consistent with the generally more
affluent areas where wine sales are much stronger than other categories such as
beer.
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Section 4: Competition
Table 4.1 and the following maps summarises the competitive liquor stores and
hotels surrounding the proposed development.
In addition to liquor and hotel facilities, a wide range of supermarket based
centres are also located within the main trade area, including the Noosa Fair
Shopping Centre (anchored by a Coles supermarket) and Noosa Junction Plaza
(anchored by a Supa IGA supermarket) adjacent to the site, and Noosa Plaza
anchored by a Big W store and a Woolworths supermarket.
4.1 Retail liquor competition
The locations of relevant retail liquor stores are illustrated on the following map
and Gross Lettable Area (GLA) for retail liquor has been provided in Table 4.1.
These GLA levels have been estimated using a combination of industry databases
and field research, as such they represent an estimate only. However, given the
proposed liquor store is a large format store, its primary competitors are other
large format stores within the trade area, which is currently limited to a Dan
Murphy’s store in Noosaville, around 3.2km to the east of the site.
Primary Trade Area
There are approximately ten (10) small format retail liquor stores within the
primary sector, with most comprising a GLA between 100 and 250 square metres.
The largest facility is a BWS liquor store located 0.5 kilometres north-east of the
proposed site which offers approximately 540 square metres of retail liquor. An
estimate of 1,843 square metres of GLA within the PTA has been determined.
Secondary Trade Area
The major competitive store to the proposed store is the Dan Murphy’s store
located at Noosaville of approximately 1,200 sq.m floorspace.
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Section 4: Competition
Other liquor stores within the secondary sector including around ten (10) small
format stores serving a localised market within the Noosaville, Tewantin and
Peregian Beach, typically providing for between 80 and 200 sq.m floorspace.
Table 4.1
Noosa Heads Bow ls Club schedule of com peting retail liquor stores
GLA estim ate Distance to site
Liquor Retailer
(sq.m ) (km )
LARGE FORMAT STORES
Dan Murphy's Noosaville 1,200 3.2
Total large form at stores 1,200
SMALL FORMAT STORES
Prim ary Trade Area
Liquorland Noosa Junction 90 0.1
Liquorland Noosa Heads 80 0.4
BWS Noosa Fair 135 0.4
XO Cellars Noosa Fair 90 0.4
BWS Noosa Drive 200 0.5
Noosa Wine Cellar 140 1.5
Sunshine Cellars Noosa Heads 80 1.5
XO Cellars Sunshine Beach 120 3.0
Liqour @ Your Local Sunshine Beach 80 3.0
BWS Sunrise Beach 190 3.2
Total PTA sm all form at stores 1,205
Secondary Trade Area
Jacks Cellars Noosaville 120 3.6
BWS Liquor Noosa Village 110 3.8
BWS Eenie Creek Road 150 5.8
Liquorland Express 150 6.5
BWS Tew antin 80 6.6
Tew antin Noosa RSL Bottle Shop 150 6.7
Liquorland Noosaville 110 7.5
BWS Peregian Beach 130 11.5
Liquor @ Your Local 150 11.5
Liquor @ Peregian 60 11.5
Total STA sm all form at stores 1,210
TOTAL LIQUOR PROVISION 3,615
So urce: M acro P lan Dimasi
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Section 4: Competition
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[OCR of page images]
PEREGIAN BEACH
VERRIERDALE
ma
Dan Murpheys
BWS Noosa © Subject Site
poads) :Urban Area
Liquorland
Express
Retail Liquor Supply
First Choice Assessment | <*
Coles Group
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Section 4: Competition
4.2 Hotel/Tavern competition
The locations of current hotels / taverns comparable to the proposed hotel onsite
are illustrated on the following map.
Primary Trade Area
There are approximately four (4) competing taverns/hotels within the PTA. Sogo
bar located adjacent to the site in the Noosa Junction Plaza is the closest
competing supply followed by the Noosa Reef Hotel located along Noosa Drive
(approximately 500 metres north-east of the site).
Secondary Trade Area
There is more competing supply located within the STA compared to the PTA with
six (6) operating hotels/taverns. The majority of the supply is within Noosaville
and Tewantin located to the west of the site.
It is noted that based on the proposed development layout for the site, the
planned hotel onsite will result in a net reduction of hotel GLA compared to the
existing Noosa Bowls Club facility. Given the net reduction in hotel GLA onsite,
there is expected to be very limited change to the competitive environment for
those competing hotels identified throughout the trade area.
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Section 4: Competition
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[OCR of page images]
nN
TEWANTIN ‘
‘Tewantin-Noosa RSL.
Tewantin-Noosa
WEYBA DOWNS
Thy
VERRIERDALE
=
6
© Subject Site
@ Hotel/Tavern = Parklands
[zp rben Area Rural Area
I ~~
0 15 3
Kilometres
Hotel/Tavern Supply
Page 26
Section 5: Retail liquor potential
This section of the report considers the market potential for the proposed First
Choice liquor store.
The performance of any particular retail facility, be it an individual store or a
collection of stores provided in an urban centre, is determined by a combination
of the following critical factors:
• The quality of the facility, with particular regard to the major trader or traders;
the strength of the retail tenancy mix relative to the needs of the catchment
which it seeks to serve; the physical layout and ease of use; ease of
accessibility and parking; and atmosphere and ambience.
• The size of the available catchment which the facility serves. This factor sets
the maximum limits as to the likely sales that can be achieved.
• The locations and strengths of competitive retail facilities and the degree to
which those facilities are able to effectively serve the needs of the population
within the relevant trade area.
The market potential for the proposed First Choice liquor store at Noosa Heads is
now considered taking into account these factors, each of which have been
addressed in the earlier sections of the report.
In order to estimate the potential sales volume available for the proposed liquor
store, the retention of sales for all stores within the trade area has been
estimated and is detailed in Table 5.1.
The estimated potential sales for the proposed liquor store is based on the
following key points:
• Total liquor spend has been identified as detailed in section 2. In addition to
this residential spend, a beyond trade area (BTA) spend, including spend on
visitors and tourists, has been allowed for. The BTA can vary between each
liquor category and comprises between 20-30% in addition to resident spend.
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Section 5: Retail liquor potential
• The estimation of potential market shares for both small and large format
stores is then applied. Typically in Australia where all formats of stores are
represented, large format stores can account for up to 70% of the total liquor
sales. It is estimated that in a relatively confined market such as Noosa
Heads, the provision of the two national large format stores would result in a
market share of around 55%, increasing from 50% when only Dan Murphy’s
was represented. Conversely, small format stores are estimated to achieve a
total market share of 50%, decreasing to 45% when the proposed First Choice
store is developed.
The steps detailed above allow the calculation of the annual estimated of liquor
sales available to trade area liquor outlets, including the introduction of the
proposed First Choice liquor store in 2015.
Based on this, the existing large format store is estimated to achieve a very
healthy trade area in excess of $15,300 per sq.m, and is forecast to maintain
strong sales of $8,813 on introduction of the proposed store. On average, small
format stores are expected to maintain consistent sales of above $7,000 per sq.m
Noosa Heads Bowls Club, QLD
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Section 5: Retail liquor potential
Table 5.1
Noosa Heads liquor capacity assessm ent, 2012-2020*
2012 2015 2017 2020
Trade area liquor spend
• Beer 8.0 8.3 8.5 8.7
• Wine 11.9 12.4 12.7 13.0
• Spirits 6.7 6.9 7.1 7.3
Total resident liquor sales 26.5 27.6 28.2 29.0
Beyond trade area liquor spend
• Beer (@ 30%) 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7
• Wine (at 30%) 5.1 5.3 5.4 5.6
• Spirits (at 20%) 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8
Beyond trade area liquor spend 10.2 10.6 10.8 11.1
Total liquor sales 36.7 38.1 39.0 40.1
Estimated liquor sales by store format
Large format store (market share 50% incr. to 55%) 18.4 21.0 21.5 22.1
Small format store (market share 50% decr. to 45%) 18.4 17.2 17.6 18.1
Existing & Proposed Supermarkets Floorspace**
Large format stores 1,200 2,380 2,380 2,380
Small format stores 2,415 2,415 2,415 2,415
Estimated average sales per sq.m
Large format stores ** 15,304 8,813 9,024 9,273
Small format stores 7,605 7,106 7,276 7,477
*excluding inflatio n and including GST.
** pro po sed First Cho ice sto re assumed first year o f trade at 2015.
So urce: M acro P lan Dimasi
This analysis above indicates that there is the potential within the Noosa Heads
area to support all of the liquor floorspace which exists or is proposed to be
added. Of course whether or not any individual store trades successfully will then
depend on a range of other factors, the most important by far being the quality of
the store’s offer, in particular its ranging, pricing, and service levels. There is no
guarantee that all stores would trade at the average levels as indicated as being
potentially available in Table 5.1, but there is the potential for all of them to do
so.
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Section 5: Retail liquor potential
Table 5.2 then details our estimated sales potential for the proposed large format
liquor store at Noosa Heads at 2015.
Such projections are estimated given the difficult to predict with certainty the
precise sales capture and draw from the tourist and visitor market that will result
from the change of retail structure serving the region. First Choice is a large
footprint packaged liquor store, and in this instance the size of the store is
proposed to be approximately 1,180 sq.m. The key features of the store will be
the following:
• The store will create employment positions for approximately 30 staff, with 6 –
8 staff members in the store at any one time.
• The store will specialise in the sale of a wide range of liquor, including beer,
wines, spirits and mixed drinks, sold at very competitive prices for the majority
of customers.
• It is anticipated that almost all customers to the store will drive to the
premises to purchase liquor, and will likely undertake a visit to the proposed
First Choice store as part of a wider shopping trip to the surround retail
facilities.
Because of its size, range and pricing, the First Choice liquor store will therefore
be quite different, both in its market positioning and in the role which it will play,
from other existing liquor stores throughout Noosa, including the small format
liquor stores surrounding the site.
• Overall, we consider that at around 22% of the total trade area spend will be
directed to the proposed First Choice store, which varies between each liquor
category.
• Therefore, sales for the proposed First Choice store is estimated at around $8.1
million, or $6,830 per sq.m in 2015.
The ultimate sales potential for the proposed store will obviously depend on the
store design, layout and market acceptance of the First Choice brand.
Noosa Heads Bowls Club, QLD
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Section 5: Retail liquor potential
Table 5.2
Noosa Heads First Choice liquor estim ated sales potential ($M), 2015-2020*
2015 2017 2020
Trade area liquor spend
• Beer 8.3 8.5 8.7
• Wine 12.4 12.7 13.0
• Spirits 6.9 7.1 7.3
Total liquor sales 27.6 28.2 29.0
Trade area beer sales (19.2% mkt share) 1.6 1.6 1.7
• Primary Trade Area (25% mkt share) 0.9 0.9 0.9
• Secondary Trade Area (15% mkt share) 0.7 0.7 0.8
Plus beer sales from beyond TA (@ (20% mkt share) 0.4 0.4 0.4
Total beer sales 2.0 2.1 2.1
Trade area w ine sales (27.1% mkt share) 3.4 3.5 3.6
• Primary Trade Area (35% mkt share) 2.1 2.2 2.2
• Secondary Trade Area (20% mkt share) 1.3 1.3 1.4
Plus w ine sales from beyond TA (@ (25% mkt share) 1.1 1.2 1.2
Total w ine sales 4.5 4.6 4.8
Trade area spirits sales (17.2% mkt share) 1.2 1.2 1.3
• Primary Trade Area (20% mkt share) 0.6 0.6 0.6
• Secondary Trade Area (15% mkt share) 0.6 0.6 0.6
Plus spirits sales from beyond TA (@ (20% mkt share) 0.3 0.3 0.3
Total spirits sales 1.5 1.5 1.6
Estim ated Total Store Sales Potential 8.1 8.2 8.5
Store sales per sq.m ($/sq.m) 6,827 6,972 7,172
*excluding inflatio n and including GST.
So urce: M acro P lan Dimasi
Noosa Heads Bowls Club, QLD
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Section 6: Economic impact
This section outlines the potential economic benefits and impacts that can be
anticipated following the development of the proposed First Choice liquor store.
As previously noted in this report, the proposed hotel onsite will result in a net
reduction of hotel supply. As a result, there is not expected to be any negative
trading impacts for competing hotel facilities, however, benefits related to this
facility are considered.
6.1 Economic and social benefits
The development of the proposed First Choice liquor store is likely to result in a
range of economic impacts. From a trading point of view, some impacts are likely
to be experienced by some competitive facilities throughout the trade area, and
the likely extent of these trading impacts is considered further in the next sub-
section of this report. On the other side of the equation, development of the First
Choice liquor store will result in a significant range of economic benefits,
particularly for residents within the trade area. The key positive impacts will
include the following:
1. Noosa Heads Bowls Club site as a strong destination for retail liquor
• The development of a big box liquor store in Noosa Heads will benefit the local
community, as well as the region overall by providing residents with enhanced
choice, competition and convenience. Currently, the nearest big box retail
liquor store of this scale is Dan Murphy’s located in Noosaville approximately
3.2 kilometres from the site. Development of the First Choice liquor store will
provide additional service to residents, as well as the large tourist market in an
accessible location.
• Increased shopping choice, amenity and local convenience
Noosa Heads Bowls Club, QLD
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Section 6: Economic impact
• The development of the proposed First Choice liquor store will offer a greater
provision and a wider range of shopping alternatives for local residents.
• Additional employment and future wages
• The development of the proposed First Choice liquor store will create a
substantial number of additional jobs in the region, both for the construction
and related industries during the construction phase, and for the economy
generally once the centre is completed. These additional jobs will improve the
self-containment of employment opportunities for residents of the Noosa Heads
trade area, as well as stimulating future additional salaries and wage levels.
This benefit is discussed further in the next sub-section of this report.
6.2 Employment stimulus
The proposed development of the First Choice liquor store and hotel will result in
additional on-going supportable employment as well as jobs through the supply
chain, across industries servicing the retail (and non-retail) tenants at the site
such as transport workers, wholesalers and the like.
Furthermore, the construction phase of the project will support temporary
construction employment as well as additional jobs through the broader economic
supply chain (i.e. multiplier impacts).
Table 6.1 illustrates the estimated net increase in direct employment that would
be created under the proposed development. As shown the additional
employment created is expected to be in the order of 65 jobs. Allowing for some
minor impacts upon employment at other retail liquor stores, estimated to be in
the order of 5%, the overall net employment created at the centre is expected to
be in the order of 62 jobs.
Noosa Heads Bowls Club, QLD
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Section 6: Economic impact
Table 6.1
Noosa Heads Bow ls Club estim ated future additional em ploym ent levels
Estimated QLD
Type of use employment GLA Employment
per '000 sq.m (sq.m) (persons)
Big Box Liquor Store 55 1,180 65
Net increase1 62
1. Net increase includes an allo wance fo r reduced emplo yment levels at impacted centres, estimated at 5% o f the to tal increase
So urce: Co les Gro up, M acro P lan Dimasi
The estimate of all additional employment that would be created as a result of the
proposed development includes both on-going direct and indirect (multiplier
induced) employment and on-going direct and indirect (multiplier induced)
employment from the construction phase of the project.
To calculate the likely total economic stimulus that can be attributed to the
proposed development, both due to the direct retail employment which it will
create, and also due to its construction, we have relied upon ABS Australian
National Accounts Input/output multipliers.
We conservatively estimate the capital cost of the project expansion to be
approximately $3.05 million. Hence, estimated employment resulting from the
construction of the project is 13 created directly and a further 21 resulting from
multiplier induced effects.
Table 6.2
Noosa Heads Bow ls Club estim ated future additional em ploym ent levels
Estimated Supplier
Original stim ulus capital Direct employment Total
costs employment multiplier
($M) effects
Construction of project 3.05 13 21 34 Job years 1
Operating employment2 62 25 86
Total 75 46 120
* Emplo yment to tals include bo th full-time and part-time wo rk
1. Indicates the estimated number o f jo bs o ver the life o f the co nstructio n pro ject, fo r the equivalent o f o ne year
2. Indicates the estimated number o f net additio nal o ngo ing jo bs as a result o f the pro po sed develo pment
So urce: Co les Gro up, M acro P lan Dimasi
Noosa Heads Bowls Club, QLD
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Section 6: Economic impact
As previously estimated, net employment resulting from the proposed
development is expected at 62 net jobs. Based upon the ABS employment
multiplier for the retail industry (of about 1.6) we estimate this would also lead to
a further 25 multiplier induced jobs.
The proposed development will therefore result in a significant stimulus to the
Noosa Heads economy, with an estimated 120 jobs in total.
6.3 Consideration of trading impacts
A number of factors need to be taken into account in determining the likely
trading impacts and subsequent consequences arising from the proposed First
Choice liquor store, on other retail facilities within the trade area.
The following analysis presents a projection of the anticipated impacts on other
retail liquor outlets in the trade area, and also considers the resulting average
trading level for all retail liquor outlets.
The impacted retailer has a number of possible actions which it may take in order
to mitigate the extent of the impact or may eliminate it all together. Expansions
and improvements may be undertaken at other developments throughout the
trade area, and all of those factors can change the nature of the impact of the
new development.
Impacts on retailers within the MTA
Table 6.3 compares the sales likely to be generated by existing trade area
retailers from 2012-2018, both with and without the proposed First Choice liquor
store. All figures are expressed in constant dollars and include GST.
Noosa Heads Bowls Club, QLD
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Section 6: Economic impact
Table 6.3
Noosa Heads retail liquor trading im pact assessm ent, 2012-2018
2012 2015 2018 Change (2012-15) Change (2012-18)
$M $M $M $M % $M %
Part 1 : Estim ated retail spending m arket
Total available expenditure to TA retailers 36.7 38.1 39.0 1.4 3.8% 0.9 2.4%
Part 2 : Calculation of MTA retail sales (w ith Noosa Heads Bow ls Club re-developm ent)
Noosa Bow ls Club (liquor) 0.0 8.1 8.2 8.1
Other trade area retailers 36.7 30.1 30.8 -6.6 -18.1% -5.9 -16.1%
Large format stores 18.4 12.9 13.3 -5.4 -29.7% -5.1 -27.8%
Small format stores 18.4 17.2 17.6 -1.2 -6.6% -0.8 -4.3%
Est. retail sales to TA retailers 36.7 38.1 39.0 1.4 3.8% 2.3 6.3%
Part 3 : Calculation of MTA retail sales (w ithout Noosa Heads Bow ls Club re-developm ent)
Noosa Bow ls Club (liquor) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - -
Other trade area retailers 36.7 38.1 39.0 1.4 3.8% 0.9 2.4%
Large format stores 20.2 21.0 21.5 0.8 3.8% 0.5 2.4%
Small format stores 16.5 17.2 17.6 0.6 3.8% 0.4 2.4%
Part 4 : Resultant Average Trading Perform ance ($/per sq.m )
Proposed Noosa Bow ls Club (liquor) 0 6,827 6,972 - - -
Large format stores 15,304 10,766 11,042 - - -
Small format stores 7,605 7,106 7,276 - - -
So urce: M acro P lan Dimasi
The column headed 2012 shows the current estimated position for trade area
retailers based on previous market capacity and potential analysis presented in
Table 5.1 and Table 5.2.
The column headed 2015 then shows what is expected to eventuate assuming
that the First Choice development at Noosa Heads were to proceed and to be
trading in that year. In short, the analysis shows the following:
• It is estimated that the addition of the First Choice store at Noosa would
increase the volume of liquor sales drawn by large format liquor retailers from
the current figure of $18.4 million to $21.0 million, including both the Dan
Murphy’s and First Choice store.
• At the same time, it is estimated that there would be a minor impact on the
small format liquor stores, resulting in a reduction of $1.2 million, from $18.4
million in 2012 to $17.2 million in 2015.
Noosa Heads Bowls Club, QLD
First Choice Assessment 33
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Section 6: Economic impact
• The resultant average turnover levels, both before and after the proposed
development, are also shown. Large format stores (currently only the Dan
Murphy’s store), is currently estimated to trade at around $15,300 per sq.m,
and expected to continue above $10,700 per sq.m going forward.
• Sales for all stores are expected to continue sales growth post this period, with
stronger potential for an improved tourist and visitor sector post the recent
decline in tourist numbers over the past few years.
Given all of the above, there is no reason to be concerned that any trading
impacts experienced by the proposed liquor facility in Noosa will threaten the
capacity of any one of those existing stores to continue operate successfully in the
future.
6.4 Net community benefit
There are many economic and social benefits that are likely to arise from the
development of the proposed First Choice liquor store and adjacent hotel. These
benefits can be summarised as follows:
• Refurbishment of an existing social venue.
• Providing greater shopping choice, amenity and local convenience.
• Stimulating additional employment opportunities and future salary and wage
earnings in the local area.
Against these benefits, some impacts are projected for existing trade area
retailers, as well as for other nearby retailers more generally. These impacts,
however, are only for surrounding liquor traders, and are not considered likely to
largely threaten the ongoing viability of any existing retailers or centres.
Thus, it can be concluded that a significant net community benefit will result from
the development of the First Choice liquor store and hotel style hotel as proposed.
Noosa Heads Bowls Club, QLD
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