2021-03-09 P&E Agenda - Item 8 - Attachment 1 - Climate Change Response Plan

Temperature
Noosa’s average, maximum and minimum temperatures are projected to continue to rise.
For the near future (2030), the annually averaged warming is projected to be around 1.5°C
above the climate baseline of 1986–2005. By the year 2070, this projected range of warming
will reach between 2.1 to 3.4°C above the baseline. Noosa’s current summer average
temperature is 25°C. This could increase to 27°C by 2050, 28°C by 2070, and 29°C by 2090.

Such rapid changes in temperature could have an effect on the lifecycles of local flora and
fauna, the viability of horticultural enterprises, and increase the prevalence of mosquito-
borne diseases and other harmful pests. Increases in the average and maximum
temperatures will also increase cooling costs for private- and publicly-owned buildings.

There is likely to be a substantial increase in the frequency of- and temperature reached on
the hottest days, and an increase in the duration of heatwaves. Currently, the average
duration for the longest single heatwave in a year is around 5 days. The duration of such an
event is projected to increase to 7.5 days by 2030, 14 days by 2050, 33 days by 2070, and
67 days by 2090. Such a change represents one of the most significant climate risks to
Noosa.

In Queensland, heatwaves are responsible for more deaths than all other natural hazards
combined. Those groups most at risk include the elderly, the homeless, and those with pre-
existing health conditions. Average age for a resident of Noosa is higher than the
Queensland average. In addition to people, heatwaves can have an impact on critical
infrastructure services, livestock and other agricultural practices, building cooling costs, and
local flora and fauna.


Rainfall
High climate variability is likely to remain the major factor influencing rainfall changes in the
next few decades. By the year 2090, projections of average total annual rainfall show little
change or a decrease across the Noosa Shire. However, the intensity of heavy rainfall
events is likely to increase as summer totals rise by 11% by 2090. Conversely, winter and
spring totals are projected to decrease by 8% and 25% respectively, by the year 2090.

By late this century, it is likely that the region will experience more time in drought, compared
to the present day.

The combination of a drier dry season and wetter wet seasons, and an increase in drought
conditions, could lead to increase soil loss through erosion (during heavy rainfall),
compaction of soils leading to reduced absorption of rainfall and increased prevalence of
outdoor sporting injuries, soil movement leading to fractures in built structures, and impacts
on agricultural enterprises and native flora and fauna.


Oceans
The average sea level for the coastal region Noosa is situated is projected to rise by 0.8m
above present day levels by the year 2100. Higher sea levels will increase the risks posed
by coastal hazards such as storm tide inundation and coastal erosion, and lead to more
frequent nuisance flooding of low-lying foreshore areas. Noosa Council’s Coastal Hazards
Adaptation Plan, and accompanying technical studies, contain details regarding how these
risks are expected to change, and what the most appropriate pathways for dealing with
these risks is for Noosa’s coastal zone.


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Noosa Climate Change Response Plan - draft for council endorsement March 2021