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Attachment 7 - Economic Need and Impact Assessment · MCU13/0251
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Peregian Village Market Economic Need and Impact Assessment Final Report Prepared for: Scanlon Property Group PO Box 54 Peregian Beach QLD 4573 Prepared by: Economic Associates Pty Ltd ACN 085 445 610 PO Box 541 Spring Hill QLD 4004 Telephone: (07) 3839 1011 Facsimile: (07) 3839 1022 December 2013 13034 © Economic Associates Pty Ltd
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
1 INTRODUCTION 1
1.1 Subject Site & Proposed Development 1
2 BACKGROUND & CONTEXTUAL ANALYSIS 4
2.1 Trade Areas for Proposed Development Definition 4
2.2 Demographic & Socio-Economic Analysis 6
2.2.1 Resident Population and Household Projections 8
2.3 Implications for Retail Demand 9
3 CENTRES NETWORK ASSESSMENT 10
3.1 Noosa Centres Hierarchy 10
3.2 Existing Retail Network 10
3.2.1 Centre Activities within the Trade Area 11
3.2.2 Centres Proximate to the Trade Area 12
3.2.3 Centres Further Afield 15
3.3 Proposed Retail Centres 16
3.3.1 Approved Redevelopment of Peregian Beach Friendly Grocer 16
3.3.2 Development Application, 5-7 Rufus Street Peregian Beach 16
3.3.3 Development Application, Expansion of Noosa Fair Shopping Centre 16
4 RETAIL EXPENDITURE ANALYSIS 17
4.1 Available Retail Expenditure 17
4.1.1 Available Supermarket Expenditure 18
4.1.2 Available Specialty Expenditure 19
4.2 Market Share Analysis 20
4.2.1 Market Share of Limited-Line Supermarket 20
4.2.2 Market Share of Specialty 21
4.3 Overall Centre Performance 22
5 CENTRES IMPACT ANALYSIS 23
5.1 Impact Defined 23
5.1.1 Impact of Proposed Retail Development 24
6 NEED ASSESSMENT 26
6.1 Summary 27
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LIST OF FIGURES & TABLES
Table 1.1: Changes to Existing Approval as Result of Subject Development
Application 2
Figure 1.1: Site Plan 3
Figure 2.1: Trade Area Map and Existing Facilities 5
Table 2.1: Socio-Economic Profile, 2011 Census Results 7
Table 2.2: Population and Household Projections, 2013-2021 9
Table 3.1: Floor space inventory of Peregian Beach Neighbourhood Centre,
November 2013 11
Table 3.2: Centres Proximate to the Trade Area, November 2013 14
Table 3.3: Centres Further Afield, November 2013 16
Table 4.1: Weekly Retail Expenditure Patterns of Trade Area Households, 2013-2021
(2013 dollars) 18
Table 4.2: Annual Available Retail Expenditure in Trade Area, 2013-2021 ($M, 2013
dollars) 18
Table 4.3: Available Supermarket Expenditure, 2013-21 ($M, 2013 dollars) 19
Table 4.4: Available Specialty Expenditure, 2013-21 ($M, 2013 dollars) 20
Table 4.5: Market Share Analysis, Proposed Limited-Line Supermarket, 2015-21 ($M,
2013 dollars) 21
Table 4.6: Market Share Analysis, Proposed Specialty, 2015-21 ($M, 2013 dollars) 22
Table 4.7: Overall Centre Performance, 2015-21 ($M, 2013 dollars) 22
Table 5.1: Impact of Proposed Retail, 2015 25
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1 INTRODUCTION
Economic Associates was engaged by Scanlon Property Group to prepare an economic need and
impact assessment of a proposed retail development anchored by a limited line supermarket.
The purpose of the economic need and impact assessment is to:
• Assess the demand for additional facilities within a relevant trade area catchment;
• Estimate the likely prospects for the proposed development based on demand and the existing
and approved network of facilities servicing the identified trade area catchment;
• Estimate the likely impact on the existing, approved and designated centres network of the
proposed development; and
• Assess the need for the proposed development having regard to the balancing of maximising
the provision of facilities against the viability of the existing, approved and designated centres
network servicing the identified trade area catchment.
1.1 Subject Site & Proposed Development
The proposed development is located at 215 David Low Way, Peregian Beach and would
comprise 1,593m2 of gross lettable area (GLA), including:
• Limited line supermarket, with a total GLA of 1,200m2 (including a 250m2 loading dock); and
• A number of specialty tenancies ranging in size between 60m2 and 100m2, with a combined
GLA of 393m2.
The specialty tenancies may be used for either retail or office uses. This assessment assumes that
all specialty tenancies are taken for retail. This assumption is likely to result in an overstatement
of impacts on other centres, hence it is a conservative assumption.
It is our understanding that the subject site currently has development approval for visitor
accommodation, retail, restaurant and office uses to be developed over a number of stages:
• Stage 1 - Retail tenancies (about 387m²) and restaurant (about 306m²) with an additional 70m²
of outdoor dining, with further visitor accommodation over (about 800m²);
• Stage 2 – 32 Dual Key Dwelling Units; and
• Stage 3 – 30 ‘Beach Shacks’ (Dwelling Units), comprising
– 9 two bedroom shacks,
– 19 three bedroom shacks; and
– 2 four bedroom shacks.
The subject development application would in effect significantly reduce (by approximately 35%)
the gross floor area and number of dwellings previously approved on the subject site. – refer
Table 1.1 below. The subject development application would effectively replace stage 1 of the
current approval.
The subject site is located opposite the existing Peregian Beach neighbourhood centre. A review
of the Peregian Beach neighbourhood centre indicates that there is no opportunity to
accommodate facilities similar to that proposed in the subject development within the existing
centre.
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Table 1.1 below sets out our understanding of how the development application for the
proposed development seeks to alter the existing development approval of the site.
Table 1.1: Changes to Existing Approval as Result of Subject Development Application
Stages/uses Existing Approval New DA Scheme
Stage 1
Retail & dining 387m2 food store 950m2 supermarket & 250m2 loading
306m2 restaurant dock
70m2 outdoor dining 393 m2 of specialty tenancies
Accommodation 800m2 (14 rooms plus office/manager’s Nil
residence)
Stages 2 & 3
Dual key apartments (3 brm) Bld A: 2,089m2 Nil
Bld B: 2,089m2 Bld B: 2,089m2
(32 dual key apartments) (16 dual key apartments)
Beach shacks
-4 brm (disabled access) 284m2 (2 dwellings) 142m2 (1 dwelling)
-3 brm (stand-alone & duplexs) 2,356m2 (19 dwellings) 1,612m2 (13 dwellings)
-2 brm (duplex) 891m2 (9 dwellings) 792m2 (8 dwellings)
Total Dwellings 62 dwellings 38 dwellings
Total GFA 9,272m2 5,978m2
(plus 250m2 loading dock)
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Figure 1.1: Site Plan Peregian Village Market Economic Need and Impact Assessment 3 December 2013 13034 Report Rev 0
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2 BACKGROUND & CONTEXTUAL ANALYSIS This section of the report provides an analysis of background and contextual matters relating to the identified trade area. This analysis is used as the foundation for subsequent analysis and assessment of the project. 2.1 Trade Areas for Proposed Development Definition The trade area (shown in Figure 2.1) has been formulated based on various factors impacting on the trading potential of the proposed site, including: • Local road infrastructure in terms of access to the site; • Natural and man-made barriers; • The location, role and function of existing centres; • Psychological barriers; and • Other barriers such as railways and water courses. Given the size and composition of the proposed development a single trade area has been identified. The trade area has been constructed using 2011 Census Statistical Area Level 1 (SA1) boundaries. These represent the smallest standard geographic boundary for which comprehensive socio-economic and demographic data can be obtained. The southern extent of the trade area is limited by the presence of supermarket anchored centres at Peregian Springs and Coolum. The trade area represents a relatively discrete coastal community separated from other urban areas by a number of urban breaks in the form of the Noosa National Park or other geographic features. The trade area comprises the communities of Peregian Beach, Marcus Beach and Castaways Beach and is bounded by the coastline to the east and Noosa National Park to the west. Peregian Village Market Economic Need and Impact Assessment 4 December 2013 13034 Report Rev 0
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Figure 2.1: Trade Area Map and Existing Facilities Peregian Village Market Economic Need and Impact Assessment 5 December 2013 13034 Report Rev 0
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2.2 Demographic & Socio-Economic Analysis A socio-economic profile of the trade area as at the 2011 Census of Population and Housing, benchmarked against the former Noosa Shire (Noosa) and Queensland is provided in Table 2.1. A number of key points can be drawn from this profile, these points being: • As of the 2011 Census, there were 4,407 persons within the trade area, accounting for 9.1% of the Noosa population; • The trade area was characterised by a higher proportion of persons aged 0-14 years and 35-54 years, and a lower proportion of persons aged 55 years or over relative to Noosa. The incidence of persons aged 55 years and over in the trade area exceeded the Queensland average; • In 2011, the average age of residents in the trade area was 40.4 years, lower than in Noosa but above the state average; • The trade area recorded a higher incidence of couple families with children than in Noosa; • In 2011, the average household size in the trade area was 2.6 persons per household, consistent with Noosa but lower than in Queensland; • Both the trade area and Noosa were characterised by a high incidence of household ownership and a lower incidence of households with a mortgage relative to Queensland; • The average weekly household income of residents within the trade area and Noosa was significantly lower than in Queensland, possibly due to the higher incidence of retirees in both regions; • The trade area recorded higher than average monthly housing loan repayments and rent payments than Noosa and Queensland; • Average housing costs as a percentage of household income were higher in the trade area and Noosa than the state average; • In 2011, both the trade area and Noosa were characterised by a lower incidence of full time employment and a high incidence of part time employment relative to Queensland; • The unemployment rate in the trade area was 6.9%, lower than in Noosa but above the state average. The labour force participation rate in the trade area was 61.3%, higher than in Noosa but lower than the state average; • As of the 2011 Census, over half of the eligible population had a post-school qualification, significantly higher than in Noosa and Queensland, with a bachelor or higher qualification the most commonly held; • Consistent with the qualification profile, the trade area was characterised by a relatively high proportion of persons in upper white collar professions and a relatively low proportion of persons in lower blue collar professions when compared to Noosa and Queensland; • Within the trade area, employed persons were most commonly within the accommodation & food services, health care & social assistance, education & training and construction sectors; • Both the trade area and Noosa recorded a high incidence of persons employed within the accommodation & food services sector relative to Queensland, consistent with the tourism focus within Peregian and Noosa more broadly; and Peregian Village Market Economic Need and Impact Assessment 6 December 2013 13034 Report Rev 0
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• The trade area also recorded a high incidence of persons employed within the professional,
scientific & technical services and education & training sectors relative to Noosa and
Queensland.
Table 2.1: Socio-Economic Profile, 2011 Census Results
Trade Area Former Noosa Shire Queensland
Population 4,407 48,230 4,332,737
Age Distribution
0-14 years 19.7% 17.6% 20.2%
15-24 years 9.3% 9.7% 13.6%
25-34 years 8.0% 7.9% 13.6%
35-44 years 15.2% 13.1% 14.3%
45-54 years 18.6% 16.2% 13.6%
55-64 years 13.8% 15.8% 11.6%
65+ years 15.5% 19.6% 13.1%
Average age (years) 40.4 42.8 37.2
Household Type (% of families)
Couple families with children 39.8% 35.2% 42.8%
Couple families without children 43.5% 47.7% 39.5%
Single parent family 15.2% 16.1% 16.1%
Other 1.5% 0.9% 1.7%
Average household size 2.6 2.6 2.8
Household Finances
% of households fully owning home 35.0% 36.3% 29.0%
% of households purchasing home 30.2% 31.6% 34.5%
% of households renting 32.9% 28.6% 33.2%
Average weekly household income $1,394 $1,221 $1,501
Average monthly housing loan repayment $2,057 $1,921 $1,976
Average weekly rent payment $359 $329 $299
Average housing costs (as a % of household income) 18.8% 19.2% 17.1%
Labour Market
Full-time employment (% labour force) 48.3% 48.9% 60.0%
Part-time employment (% labour force) 39.2% 37.9% 28.2%
Total employment (% labour force) 93.1% 92.6% 93.9%
Unemployment rate (% labour force) 6.9% 7.4% 6.1%
Participation rate (% of population > 15 years) 61.3% 55.5% 62.8%
Qualifications
% of persons with a post-school qualification 55.8% 46.1% 43.3%
% of persons with Bachelor or higher 25.0% 14.9% 15.9%
% of persons with Diploma 11.0% 9.9% 7.5%
% of persons with Certificate 19.7% 21.3% 19.9%
Occupation
Upper White Collar
Managers 14.0% 13.3% 12.0%
Professionals 26.5% 18.3% 18.9%
Subtotal 40.5% 31.6% 31.0%
Lower White Collar
Clerical and Admin Workers 11.0% 11.7% 10.0%
Community & Personal Service Workers 11.8% 12.2% 14.7%
Sales Workers 10.1% 12.2% 9.8%
Subtotal 32.9% 36.1% 34.4%
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Trade Area Former Noosa Shire Queensland Upper Blue Collar Technicians & Trades Workers 13.8% 15.2% 14.9% Subtotal 13.8% 15.2% 14.9% Lower Blue Collar Machinery Operators & Drivers 2.6% 4.9% 7.3% Labourers 8.2% 10.5% 10.6% Subtotal 10.8% 15.4% 17.9% Employment by Industry (% of employees) Agriculture, forestry & fishing 0.9% 1.6% 2.7% Mining 1.3% 1.5% 2.6% Manufacturing 4.7% 5.7% 8.4% Electricity, gas, water & waste services 0.9% 0.7% 1.2% Construction 10.5% 10.4% 9.0% Wholesale trade 3.6% 3.0% 3.6% Retail trade 10.4% 13.3% 10.7% Accommodation & food services 11.9% 12.4% 7.0% Transport, postal & warehousing 2.6% 3.2% 5.3% Information media & telecommunications 1.4% 1.3% 1.2% Financial & insurance services 1.1% 2.1% 2.7% Rental, hiring & real estate services 2.6% 2.8% 1.8% Professional, scientific & technical services 9.9% 6.5% 6.5% Administrative & support services 4.3% 4.1% 3.2% Public administration & safety 5.1% 3.9% 6.7% Education & training 10.5% 7.3% 7.9% Health care & social assistance 11.7% 12.2% 11.9% Arts & recreation services 2.1% 1.5% 1.4% Other services 4.4% 6.3% 6.2% Source: 2011 Census of Population and Housing – 2nd release data 2.2.1 Resident Population and Household Projections The resident population of the trade area is projected to increase from 4,488 persons in 2013 to 4,837 persons in 2023, or by 0.8% per annum. The number of households in the trade area is projected to increase from 1,739 households in 2013 to 1,912 households in 2023, or by 1.0% per annum. The rate of population growth and household formation within the trade area is anticipated to be similar to Noosa, but significantly lower than in Queensland. Table 2.2 below summarises the projected population growth and household formation within the trade area between 2013 and 2023, benchmarked to Noosa and Queensland. Peregian Village Market Economic Need and Impact Assessment 8 December 2013 13034 Report Rev 0
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Table 2.2: Population and Household Projections, 2013-2021
2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 Ave Ann
Growth,
2013-23*
Population
Trade Area 4,488 4,563 4,637 4,706 4,774 4,837 0.8%
Former Noosa Shire 52,598 54,775 56,333 57,157 57,707 58,013 1.0%
Queensland 4,661,577 4,849,285 5,039,432 5,231,619 5,425,360 5,619,982 1.9%
Households
Trade Area 1,739 1,775 1,811 1,845 1,880 1,912 1.0%
Former Noosa Shire 20,621 21,543 22,227 22,625 22,917 23,113 1.1%
Queensland 1,670,723 1,744,269 1,819,228 1,895,471 1,972,836 2,051,088 2.1%
Average Household Size
Trade Area 2.58 2.57 2.56 2.55 2.54 2.53 -0.2%
Former Noosa Shire 2.55 2.54 2.53 2.53 2.52 2.51 -0.2%
Queensland 2.79 2.78 2.77 2.76 2.75 2.74 -0.2%
Source: PIFU (2011) and Economic Associates estimates
2.3 Implications for Retail Demand
The trade area is likely to have a lower average level of retail expenditure per household than
Queensland based on the following socio-economic characteristics:
• Lower average weekly household income;
• Higher proportion of income spent on housing costs; and
• Lower incidence of full time employment.
However, the trade area is also characterised by a relatively high incidence of retirees, who are
likely to have significant savings from which to make a range of purchases, particularly on
lifestyle related goods and services.
Population growth and household formation within the trade area is anticipated to be marginally
lower in the trade area than the former Noosa Shire, but significantly lower than the state
average.
The trade area represents a discrete coastal community separated from other urban areas by
Noosa National Park with a current population of approximately 4,500 persons. A discrete
residential population of this size can generally support a limited line supermarket to meet day to
day and weekly shopping needs. In addition to the resident population, the trade area, attracts a
significant number of visitors, which would add to the available expenditure pool within the
catchment.
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3 CENTRES NETWORK ASSESSMENT
3.1 Noosa Centres Hierarchy
It is advised that the proposed development will be assessed under the Noosa Plan. This
planning scheme articulates a centres hierarchy that comprises:
• Shire Business Centre;
• Business Centres;
• Neighbourhood centres; and
• Village Centres.
The Shire Business Centre is intended to be the primary focus of business and employment
activity within the Noosa Shire. The Shire Business Centre includes a diverse mix of land uses
including retail, commercial, industrial and community facilities. Noosa Civic, located within the
Shire Business Centre is the highest order retail centre within Noosa Shire, being anchored by a
full line Woolworths supermarket and Big W discount Department store.
The Business Centres (located at Noosa Junction, Noosaville; Tewantin and Cooroy) provide a
lesser scale of retail and commercial facilities to the Shire Business Centre, with their size
intended to be limited to ensure the primacy of the Shire Business Centre.
Neighbourhood and Village centres, of which Peregian Beach is one, cater to local level retail and
commercial needs. The Peregian Beach neighbourhood centre provides local retail and
commercial services to the eastern beaches communities of Peregian Beach, Marcus Beach and
Castaways Beach.
3.2 Existing Retail Network
The existing retail network servicing the trade area has been identified and classified as follows:
• Centre activities within the trade area: Peregian Beach Neighbourhood Centre;
• Centres proximate to the trade area:
– Peregian Springs Shopping Centre;
– Coolum Park Shopping Centre;
– Coolum Beach Village Centre;
– Yandina-Coolum Road Retail;
– Sunrise Shopping Centre;
– Sunrise Beach Centre;
• Centres further afield:
– Noosa Fair Shopping Centre;
– Noosa Junction Plaza;
– Noosa Civic; and
– Noosa Village Shopping Centre.
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A detailed inventory was undertaken in November 2013 of centre activities within and proximate
to the trade area. A brief overview of the centres further afield is also provided, however these
centres are unlikely to sustain material impacts resulting from the proposed development.
3.2.1 Centre Activities within the Trade Area
Peregian Beach Neighbourhood Centre
The Peregian Beach centre is defined as a neighbourhood centre under the Noosa Plan, with an
estimated floor space of 8,958m2 across approximately 100 tenancies. Peregian Beach
Neighbourhood Centre offers a number of dining (29.8% of total floor space, including the
Peregian Beach Hotel and Peregian Beach Surf Club), giftware (12.7% of total floor space) and
fashion (8.0% of total floor space) retailers. There were relatively few grocery & take home food
tenants within the Peregian Beach Neighbourhood Centre, with a Friendly Grocer1 (290m2),
greengrocer and bakery identified at the centre.
There were a number of commercial office tenancies identified within the Peregian Beach
Neighbourhood Centre (18.2% of total floor space), typically located within first floor tenancies.
An estimated 4.4% of floor space at the centre was identified as vacant. Table 3.1 below
summarises the provision of retail centre floor space within the trade area.
Table 3.1: Floor space inventory of Peregian Beach Neighbourhood Centre, November 2013
sqm %
Retail Classes
Groceries & take home food 424 4.7%
Dining & take-away food (incl. on-premise liquor) 2,673 29.8%
Clothing, footwear & apparel 720 8.0%
Personal & other goods 1,138 12.7%
Core bulky goods - -
Ancillary bulky goods 247 2.8%
Hardware - -
Takeaway liquor 419 4.7%
Commercial Classes
Finance & Insurance - -
Property & Business Services 1,634 18.2%
Government Administration - -
Other Classes
Health & Community Services 814 9.1%
Personal & Other Services 232 2.6%
Cultural & Recreational Services 260 2.9%
Total Retail 5,621 62.7%
Total Commercial 1,634 18.2%
Total Other 1,306 14.6%
Total Vacant 397 4.4%
Total Floor Space 8,958 100.0%
Source: Economic Associates inventory, November 2013
1 The Friendly Grocer site currently has an approval to redevelop. This approval is discussed later, however if the
approval is taken up the Friendly Grocer would be replaced by a 50m2 shop (which might not be taken up as a food
store)
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3.2.2 Centres Proximate to the Trade Area Peregian Springs Shopping Centre Peregian Springs Shopping Centre is located at 1 Ridgeview Drive, and is located within the Peregian Springs residential estate. Peregian Springs Shopping Centre is located approximately 3.7 kilometres from the proposed development. The centre is anchored by a Coles supermarket (2,800m2) with other retail tenancies including Peregian Springs Meat, Essential Grain Bakery, Pizza Capers and Livelife Pharmacy. Non-retail tenancies at the centre include Jetts, Peregian Springs Vet Surgery, a medical centre, physiotherapist and dentist. At the time of inspection, there was one vacancy identified within the centre. Coolum Beach Village Centre The Coolum Beach Village Centre comprises Coolum Shopping Village (located on Birtwill Street) and frame and retail activity on the Coolum Esplanade. The Coolum Beach Village Centre is located approximately 5.6 kilometres from the proposed development. Coolum Village Coolum Village is located on Birtwill Street, Coolum Beach and was recently redeveloped, with the previous centre anchor (IGA) replaced with a 2,500m2 Coles supermarket. Coolum Village is an estimated 4,553m2 in size, with specialty tenancies including Video Ezy, Coolum Surf, Livelife Pharmacy and a newsagent. There were two vacancies identified at Coolum Village, accounting for 3.7% of total floor space at the centre. Coolum Esplanade Retail Retail activity along the Coolum Esplanade is focussed on dining & takeaway food (23.6% of total floor space) and personal & other goods retailing (15.9% of total floor space). A number of commercial office tenancies were also identified along the Coolum Esplanade, including real estate agents, banks, accountants and legal services. Yandina-Coolum Road Retail Strip retail totalling approximately 2,294m2 was identified on the corner of Yandina-Coolum Road and South Coolum Road and Greenoaks Drive, Coolum. This centre is located approximately 8.6 kilometres from the proposed development. The strip retail on the corner of Yandina-Coolum Road and South Coolum Road was anchored by a Friendly Grocer (200m2), with other tenancies including Coolum Cycles, Network Video, Aquarelle Skin & Beauty and Eagle Boys Pizza. One vacant tenancy was identified at the centre, previously occupied by Thrifty Link Hardware. Tenancies identified on Greenoaks Drive included Jetts, Paint City, Coolum Car Bitz and the Salvation Army. Coolum Park Shopping Centre Coolum Park Shopping Centre is located on South Coolum Road, approximately 8.8 kilometres from the proposed development, and is an estimated 3,992m2 in size. The centre is anchored by a 2,800m2 Woolworths, with other tenancies including Suncoast Medical Centre, Livelife Peregian Village Market Economic Need and Impact Assessment 12 December 2013 13034 Report Rev 0
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Pharmacy, Suncity Meats and a newsagent. There were two vacancies identified at the centre, accounting for 4.5% of total floor space at the centre. Sunrise Shopping Centre Sunrise Shopping Centre is located on Grasstree Court, Sunrise Beach, approximately 9.1 kilometres from the proposed development. Sunrise Shopping Centre is classified as a neighbourhood centre under the Noosa Plan. The centre has an estimated floor space of 1,055m2 and is anchored by a Foodworks food store (345m2), with other tenancies including Breadlovers, Sunrise Meats and BWS. There were no vacant tenancies identified at the centre. Sunshine Beach Centre The Sunshine Beach centre is located on Duke Street, on the corner of Douglas Street, approximately 9.3 kilometres from the proposed development, and is an estimated 1,849m2 in size. The centre is zoned as visitor mixed use under the Noosa Plan, and accommodates a range of dining tenancies such as The Deck, Coconut Grove Bar & Bistro and Fratellini Ristorante. Convenience grocery needs are met by the Sunshine Beach General Store & Newsagency (previously Foodworks food store) (260m2). A number of non-retail tenants were also identified with the Sunshine Beach Centre, including Pure Pilates Noosa, You First Personal Training, Vee Design and Andrew Boch Architecture. Table 3.2 below provides a breakdown of the tenancy mix of centres proximate to the proposed development’s trade area. Peregian Village Market Economic Need and Impact Assessment 13 December 2013 13034 Report Rev 0
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Table 3.2: Centres Proximate to the Trade Area, November 2013
Peregian Springs Coolum Village Coolum Yandina - Coolum Park Sunrise Sunshine Beach
Shopping Centre Esplanade Coolum Road Shopping Centre Shopping Centre
Retail Centre
sqm % sqm % sqm % sqm % sqm % sqm % sqm %
Retail Classes
Groceries & take home food 2,980 59.6% 2,500 54.9% 156 1.4% 200 8.7% 2,885 72.3% 525 49.8% 320 17.3%
Dining & take-away food (incl. on-premise liquor) 289 5.8% 331 7.3% 2,550 23.6% 104 4.5% 51 1.3% - - 825 44.6%
Clothing, footwear & apparel - - 132 2.9% 796 7.4% 156 6.8% 51 1.3% - - - -
Personal & other goods 497 9.9% 789 17.3% 1,714 15.9% 384 16.7% 472 11.8% 196 18.6% 44 2.4%
Core bulky goods - - - - - - 264 11.5% - - - - - -
Ancillary bulky goods - - 84 1.8% 683 6.3% 258 11.2% - - - - - -
Hardware - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Takeaway liquor 135 2.7% 77 1.7% 348 3.2% - - 102 2.5% 90 8.5% 60 3.2%
Commercial Classes
Finance & Insurance 135 2.7% 202 4.4% 818 7.6% - - - - - - - -
Property & Business Services 77 1.5% - - 1,463 13.5% 100 4.4% - - - - 285 15.4%
Government Administration - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Other Classes
Health & Community Services 231 4.6% 270 5.9% 1,108 10.3% - - 254 6.4% 244 23.1% 70 3.8%
Personal & Other Services 120 2.4% - - 140 1.3% - - - - - - 80 4.3%
Cultural & Recreational Services 472 9.4% - - 596 5.5% 540 23.5% - - - - 165 8.9%
Total Retail 3,901 78.0% 3,913 85.9% 6,247 57.8% 1,366 59.5% 3,560 89.2% 811 76.9% 1,249 67.6%
Total Commercial 212 4.2% 202 4.4% 2,281 21.1% 100 4.4% - - - - 285 15.4%
Total Other 823 16.5% 270 5.9% 1,844 17.1% 540 23.5% 254 6.4% 244 23.1% 315 17.0%
Total Vacant 64 1.3% 168 3.7% 432 4.0% 288 12.6% 178 4.5% - - - -
Total Floor Space 5,000 100.0% 4,553 100.0% 10,804 100.0% 2,294 100.0% 3,992 100.0% 1,055 100.0% 1,849 100.0%
Source: Economic Associates inventory, November 2013
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& ECONOMIC ASSOCIATES
Table 3.2: Centres Proximate to the Trade Area, November 2013
Peregian Springs | Coolum Village Coolum Yandina - Coolum Park Sunrise Sunshine Beach
Shopping Centre Esplanade Coolum Road Shopping Centre Shopping Centre
Retail Centre
sqm % sqm % sqm % sqm % sqm % sqm % sqm %
Retail Classes
Groceries & take home food 2,980 59.6% | 2,500 54.9% 156 1.4% 200 8.7% | 2,885 72.3% 525 49.8% 320 17.3%
Dining & take-away food (incl. on-premise liquor) 289 5.8% 331 7.3% 2,550 23.6% 104 4.5% 51 1.3% - - 825 44.6%
Clothing, footwear & apparel - - 132 2.9% 796 7.4% 156 6.8% 51 1.3% - - - -
Personal & other goods 497 9.9% 789 = 17.3%] 1,714 15.9% 384 16.7% 472 11.8% 196 18.6% 44 2.4%
Core bulky goods - - - - - - 264 11.5% - - - - - -
Ancillary bulky goods - - 84 1.8% 683 6.3% 258 11.2% - - - - - -
Hardware - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Takeaway liquor 135 2.7% 77 1.7% 348 3.2% - - 102 2.5% 90 8.5% 60 3.2%
Commercial Classes
Finance & Insurance 135 2.7% 202 4.4% 818 7.6% - - - - - - - -
Property & Business Services 77 1.5% - - 1,463 13.5% 100 4.4% - - - - 285 15.4%
Government Administration - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Other Classes
Health & Community Services 231 4.6% 270 5.9% 1,108 10.3% - - 254 6.4% 244 23.1% 70 3.8%
Personal & Other Services 120 2.4% - - 140 1.3% - - - - - - 80 4.3%
Cultural & Recreational Services 472 9.4% - - 596 5.5% 540 23.5% - - - - 165 8.9%
Total Retail 3,901 78.0% | 3,913 85.9% 6,247 57.8% | 1,366 59.5% | 3,560 89.2% 811 76.9% | 1,249 67.6%
Total Commercial 212 4.2% 202 4.4% 2,281 21.1% 100 4.4% - : - - 285 15.4%
Total Other 823 16.5% 270 5.9% 1,844 17.1% 540 23.5% 254 6.4% 244 23.1% 315 17.0%
Total Vacant 64 1.3% 168 3.7% 432 4.0% 288 12.6% 178 4.5% - - : -
Total Floor Space 5,000 100.0% | 4,553 100.0% | 10,804 100.0% | 2,294 100.0% | 3,992 100.0% | 1,055 100.0% | 1,849 100.0%
Source: Economic Associates inventory, November 2013
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3.2.3 Centres Further Afield Noosa Fair Shopping Centre Noosa Fair Shopping Centre, located at 3 Lanyana Way, Noosa Heads is an estimated 11.0 kilometres from the proposed development. The centre is classified as a neighbourhood centre under the Noosa Plan and has an estimated 7,404m2 of retail floor space. Noosa Fair Shopping Centre is anchored by a Coles supermarket (3,766m2), with other tenancies including BWS, Zaraffas Coffee and Brumby’s. It is anticipated that the proposed development would have limited impacts on Noosa Fair Shopping Centre, due to the distance from the subject site and the presence of intervening supermarket opportunities at Peregian Springs (Coles) and Coolum Beach (Coles and Woolworths). Noosa Junction Plaza Noosa Junction Plaza, located at 81 Noosa Drive, Noosa Heads, is an estimated 11.1 kilometres from the proposed development and classified as a neighbourhood centre under the Noosa Plan. Noosa Junction Plaza is an estimated 5,099m2 in size and is anchored by a Supa IGA (2,153m2) and Target Country (1,360m2). Specialty tenancies at the centre include a butcher, newsagent, chemist and hairdresser. It is anticipated that the proposed development would have limited impacts on Noosa Junction Plaza, due to the distance from the subject site and the presence of intervening supermarket opportunities at Peregian Springs (Coles) and Coolum Beach (Coles and Woolworths). Noosa Civic Noosa Civic, located at 28 Eenie Creek Road, Noosaville, has an estimated 28,353m2 of retail floor space and is classified as a shire business centre under the Noosa Plan. The centre is anchored by a 6,613m2 Big W and 3,507m2 Woolworths, with a range of national specialty retailers at the centre, including Beacon Lighting, BCF, Dick Smith Electronics, Wallace Bishop and City Beach. Noosa Civic is anticipated to record limited impacts as a result of the proposed development, as Noosa Civic meets the comparison retailing needs, as opposed to the convenience retailing needs, of residents within the proposed development’s catchment. Noosa Village Shopping Centre Noosa Village Shopping Centre is located at the corner of Gibson Road and Mary Street, Noosaville, approximately 19.4 kilometres from the subject site. The centre is contained within the business centre zone in the Noosa Plan and is an estimated 4,692m2 in size. Noosa Village Shopping Centre is anchored by a Woolworths supermarket (2,582m2), with specialty tenancies including a newsagent, florist, butcher and bakery. It is anticipated that the proposed development would have limited impacts on Noosa Junction Plaza, due to the distance from the subject site and the presence of intervening supermarket opportunities at Peregian Springs (Coles), Coolum Beach (Coles and Woolworths), Noosa Heads (Coles and Supa IGA) and Noosaville (Woolworths). Table 3.3 below provides an overview of Noosa Fair Shopping Centre, Noosa Junction Plaza, Noosa Civic and Noosa Village Shopping Centre. Peregian Village Market Economic Need and Impact Assessment 15 December 2013 13034 Report Rev 0
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Table 3.3: Centres Further Afield, November 2013
Centre Address Retail Floor Distance Anchor Tenants
Space (m2) from
Subject
Site (km)
Noosa Fair Shopping Centre 3 Lanyana Way, Noosa Heads 7,404 11.0 • Coles (3,766m2)
Noosa Junction Plaza 81 Noosa Drive, Noosa Heads 5,099 11.1 • Supa IGA (2,153m2)
• Target Country (1,360m2)
Noosa Civic 28 Eenie Creek Road, Noosaville 28,353 15.8 • Big W (6,613m2)
• Woolworths (3,507m2)
Noosa Village Shopping Centre Cnr Gibson Road & Mary Street, 4,692 19.4 • Woolworths (2,582m2)
Noosaville
Source: Property Council of Australia 2013 Shopping Centre Directory
3.3 Proposed Retail Centres
3.3.1 Approved Redevelopment of Peregian Beach Friendly Grocer
A development approval is in place to redevelop the site currently occupied by the Friendly
Grocer at Heron Street, Peregian Beach. The approval is for shops, restaurant and office. The
shop tenancy is for 50m2 and there is no clear indication of its likely use
3.3.2 Development Application, 5-7 Rufus Street Peregian Beach
In early 2013, a development application was lodged for a retail centre with a gross lettable area
of 1,844 m2 at 5-7 Rufus Street, Peregian Beach. The application included:
• IGA supermarket: 1,100m2;
• Detached bottle shop: 140m2;
• Take-away food outlet: 70m2;
• Coffee shop/café: 62m2;
• Newsagent: 105m2;
• Pharmacy: 159m2;
• Bakery: 108m2; and
• Post office: 100m2.
In November 2013, the applicant lodged a deemed refusal appeal with the Planning &
Environment Court of Queensland.
3.3.3 Development Application, Expansion of Noosa Fair Shopping
Centre
An application has been lodged with Council to expand the Coles tenancy at Noosa Fair from
3,766m2 to 4,356m2.
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4 RETAIL EXPENDITURE ANALYSIS This section of the report assesses the retail expenditure generated within the identified trade area; the likely market penetration of retail facilities located on the subject site; and the consequent performance of the proposed retail development. 4.1 Available Retail Expenditure Retail expenditure analysis seeks to identify retail expenditure patterns for households in identified trade areas, which can then be extrapolated by projected household formation over time to generate a total future available retail expenditure estimate for identified trade area/s. Based on anticipated trade area market shares it is possible to infer the potential demand for a proposed retail development. A number of retail categories are identified, these being: • Groceries and take home food; • Dining and take-away food, including on-premise liquor; • Clothing, footwear and apparel; • Personal and other goods; • Core bulky goods 2; • Ancillary bulky goods 3; • Hardware; and • Takeaway liquor. Retail expenditure data for non-metropolitan Queensland is taken from the ABS Household Expenditure Survey 2009-10 (Cat No. 6530.0) and assigned to the above retail expenditure categories and then adjusted for sub-regional variations incomes and housing costs. All estimates are expressed in 2013 dollars. Table 4.1 below summarises the estimated weekly retail goods expenditure patterns of households within the trade area between 2013 and 2021, based on the above retail categories. Between 2013 and 2021, real weekly retail expenditure per household is projected to increase by approximately 0.5% per annum in the trade area. 2 Core bulky goods include furniture and floor coverings, household appliances and audio-visual equipment and parts. 3 Ancillary bulky goods include blankets, household linen and household furnishings, glassware, tableware, cutlery and household utensils, home computer equipment, camping equipment and motor vehicle parts and accessories purchased separately Peregian Village Market Economic Need and Impact Assessment 17 December 2013 13034 Report Rev 0
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Table 4.1: Weekly Retail Expenditure Patterns of Trade Area Households, 2013-2021 (2013 dollars) Trade Area 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 Groceries & take home food $171.45 $173.17 $174.90 $176.66 $178.43 Dining (incl. on-premise liquor) $31.43 $31.75 $32.06 $32.39 $32.71 Fast food & take-away food $26.74 $27.01 $27.28 $27.55 $27.83 Clothing, footwear & apparel $42.90 $43.33 $43.76 $44.20 $44.64 Personal & other goods $67.48 $68.15 $68.84 $69.53 $70.22 Core bulky goods $58.70 $59.29 $59.88 $60.48 $61.09 Ancillary bulky goods $52.90 $53.43 $53.97 $54.51 $55.06 Hardware $33.68 $34.02 $34.36 $34.70 $35.05 Takeaway liquor $20.86 $21.07 $21.28 $21.49 $21.71 Fuel & Related $61.78 $62.40 $63.02 $63.65 $64.29 Total Grocery & Specialty $422.63 $426.87 $431.15 $435.47 $439.83 Total Bulky Goods $145.28 $146.74 $148.21 $149.69 $151.19 Total $567.91 $573.60 $579.35 $585.16 $591.03 Source: Derived from ABS (2010) Household Expenditure Survey, 2009-10 and the 2011 Census of Population & Housing. Table 4.2 below provides a detailed breakdown of the anticipated available retail expenditure by retail category. Annual available retail expenditure in the trade area is projected to increase from $51.35 million in 2013 to $57.77 million in 2021, or by 1.5% per annum. Table 4.2: Annual Available Retail Expenditure in Trade Area, 2013-2021 ($M, 2013 dollars) Trade Area 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 Groceries & take home food $15.50 $15.98 $16.47 $16.95 $17.44 Dining (incl. on-premise liquor) $2.84 $2.93 $3.02 $3.11 $3.20 Fast food & take-away food $2.42 $2.49 $2.57 $2.64 $2.72 Clothing, footwear & apparel $3.88 $4.00 $4.12 $4.24 $4.36 Personal & other goods $6.10 $6.29 $6.48 $6.67 $6.86 Core bulky goods $5.31 $5.47 $5.64 $5.80 $5.97 Ancillary bulky goods $4.78 $4.93 $5.08 $5.23 $5.38 Hardware $3.05 $3.14 $3.24 $3.33 $3.43 Takeaway liquor $1.89 $1.94 $2.00 $2.06 $2.12 Fuel & Related $5.59 $5.76 $5.94 $6.11 $6.28 Total Grocery & Specialty $38.22 $39.40 $40.61 $41.79 $42.99 Total Bulky Goods $13.14 $13.54 $13.96 $14.36 $14.78 Total $51.35 $52.95 $54.56 $56.15 $57.77 Source: Derived from Table 2.2 and Table 3.1 4.1.1 Available Supermarket Expenditure The major driver of supermarket expenditure is household expenditure on groceries and take- home food. Sales of groceries and take-home food account for between 90% and 95% of a supermarket’s gross retail sales. Supermarkets generally capture approximately 80% of available household expenditure on groceries and take home food, with the remaining 20% of household expenditure on groceries and take home food being captured by specialty food retailers (e.g. bakeries, butchers, green grocers, etc). Household expenditure on grocery and take home food items in the trade area is estimated at approximately $15.50 million in 2013 and is anticipated to increase to $17.44 million Peregian Village Market Economic Need and Impact Assessment 18 December 2013 13034 Report Rev 0
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in 2021. Hence, the estimated available grocery and take home food expenditure available to supermarkets is anticipated to increase from $12.40 million in 2013 to $13.95 million in 2021. Grocery and take home food sales at supermarkets are supplemented by non-food purchases, such as general merchandise, which typically account for between 5% and 10% of supermarket turnover. Based on the proportion of grocery and take home food related floor space taken up by supermarkets, a midpoint of 7.5% has been adopted. Therefore (as reported in Table 4.3 below), available supermarket expenditure generated by trade area residents is anticipated to increase from $13.41 million in 2013 to $15.08 million by 2021. Table 4.3 below summarises the available supermarket expenditure generated by the PTA Table 4.3: Available Supermarket Expenditure, 2013-21 ($M, 2013 dollars) Expenditure category 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 Total PTA food/grocery expenditure $15.50 $15.98 $16.47 $16.95 $17.44 Total PTA food/grocery expenditure available $12.40 $12.79 $13.18 $13.56 $13.95 to supermarkets (80%) Plus PTA expenditure on other merchandise $1.01 $1.04 $1.07 $1.10 $1.13 (7.5% of supermarket turnover) Total available to supermarket expenditure $13.41 $13.82 $14.25 $14.66 $15.08 Source: Derived from Table 4.2 4.1.2 Available Specialty Expenditure A review of the plan of development indicates that specialty tenancies within the proposed centre are all less than 100m2. Some of these tenancies may be taken up as non-retail uses, however this analysis assumes all specialty tenancies are taken up by retail uses. This assumption is likely to result in an overstatement of impacts on other centres, hence it represents a conservative assumption. The relevant expenditure categories for tenancies of this scale include: • Groceries & take-home food (excluding supermarket expenditure); • Dining (including on-premise liquor); • Fast food & take-away food; • Clothing, footwear & apparel; • Personal & other goods; and • Takeaway liquor. Available specialty expenditure is calculated based on the available expenditure from the above retail expenditure categories. As such, available specialty expenditure in the trade area is anticipated to increase from $20.23 million in 2013 to $22.51 million in 2021. Table 4.4 shows the available specialty expenditure generated by the trade area. Peregian Village Market Economic Need and Impact Assessment 19 December 2013 13034 Report Rev 0
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Table 4.4: Available Specialty Expenditure, 2013-21 ($M, 2013 dollars) Retail category 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 Groceries & take home food $3.10 $3.20 $3.29 $3.39 $3.49 (excluding supermarket expenditure) Dining (incl. on-premise liquor) $2.84 $2.71 $2.79 $2.87 $2.96 Fast food & take-away food $2.42 $2.49 $2.57 $2.64 $2.72 Clothing, footwear & apparel $3.88 $4.00 $4.12 $4.24 $4.36 Personal & other goods $6.10 $6.29 $6.48 $6.67 $6.86 Takeaway liquor $1.89 $1.94 $2.00 $2.06 $2.12 Total specialty $20.23 $20.64 $21.27 $21.88 $22.51 Source: Derived from Table 3.2 and Table 3.3 Note: Grocery & take-home food expenditure captured by supermarkets is excluded 4.2 Market Share Analysis Market share analysis seeks to estimate the amount of expenditure captured by the proposed development as a means of demonstrating demand for the proposed facilities and later estimating the potential impact of the proposed facilities on the existing retail network. The subsequent market share analysis assumes a first full year of trade of 2015. 4.2.1 Market Share of Limited-Line Supermarket There are no supermarkets located within the identified trade area. Within the trade area there is a Friendly Grocer food store (~290m2). A food store of this size cannot provide the level of convenience grocery needs of a catchment in excess of 4,000 persons. A small food store such as the Friendly Grocer caters for immediate top-up convenience purchases, rather than aiming to meeting the day-to-day grocery needs of a supermarket. The nearest supermarket to the subject site is the 2,794m2 full line Coles supermarket at Peregian Springs. Currently, trade area residents must access this supermarket or other further afield to meet their day-today grocery needs. The proposed supermarket has a total lettable area of 1,200m2 (including a 250m2) loading dock. A limited line supermarket of the scale proposed can meet the weekly grocery needs of trade area residents. Having said this, some trade area residents will ultimately prefer to purchase their groceries from one of the full line supermarkets located outside the trade area. By being able to cater to weekly shopping trips and other day-to-day grocery requirements of trade area residents, the proposed supermarket is likely to capture half of the available supermarket expenditure (as reported in Table 3.5 below). In addition to trade area sourced expenditure, retail outlets often attract trade from non-trade area sources, either in the form of visitors or workers residing outside the trade area. The incidence of non-trade area sourced expenditure typically varies between 10% and 20% of turnover, depending on exposure, accessibility and characteristics of the surrounding area (e.g. close proximity to a major employment hub or location within an area with significant tourist visitation4). It is anticipated that given the subject site’s location on David Low Way and the 4 In heavily tourism focussed areas, such as Surfers Paradise, Airlie Beach and Cairns, non-trade area sourced expenditure can account for over half of a retailer’s turnover. Peregian Village Market Economic Need and Impact Assessment 20 December 2013 13034 Report Rev 0
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tourism appeal of Peregian Beach, non-trade area expenditure would tend towards the upper end
of the range reported above (that is, 17.5% of turnover to be sourced from non-trade area
expenditure).
The proposed limited supermarket is anticipated to generate turnover of appropriately $8.38
million (or in its first full year of trade (2015), increasing to approximately $9.14 million in 2021.
Table 4.5 below outlines the anticipated market shares and turnover for the proposed limited-line
supermarket in the 2015 to 2021 period.
Table 4.5: Market Share Analysis, Proposed Limited-Line Supermarket, 2015-21 ($M, 2013
dollars)
Contribution 2015 2017 2019 2021
to turnover
Trade area market share 50.0% $6.91 $7.12 $7.33 $7.54
Non-trade area expenditure (% of turnover) 17.5% $1.47 $1.51 $1.55 $1.60
Total - $8.38 $8.63 $8.89 $9.14
Source: Economic Associates estimates
4.2.2 Market Share of Specialty
The proposed development is to incorporate a range of specialty tenancies totalling 393m2.
These tenancies will cater for small specialty shops offering a range of retail options and
potentially professional offices. As stated above, the analysis assumes all tenancies are taken up
for retail uses.
The retail tenancies are likely to be weighted towards convenience (e.g. specialty food, retail
liquor), café/take-away and/or personal services. Given the proposed centres is located within a
tourist areas, small fashion shops may also be potential tenants. Core and ancillary bulky goods
and hardware are not considered to be likely tenants, hence expenditure relating to these types of
tenants has been excluded from the analysis.
With the proposed development being located on David Low Way and within an area popular
with visitors, non-trade expenditure is likely to tend towards the upper end of the 10%-20%
range mentioned previously. Trade area market share is likely to be influenced by the ultimate
tenancy mix of the specialty retail component. However, assuming that the specialty retail has a
more convenience focus than the specialty retail provided within the existing Peregian Beach
retail/commercial hub, the specialty component is expected to capture just less than 10% market
share of available specialty expenditure.
As such, the specialty retail component of the proposed development is anticipated to generate
turnover of approximately $2.38 million in its first full year of trade (2015), increasing to
approximately $2.59 million in 2021.
Table 4.6 below outlines the anticipated market shares and turnover for the proposed specialty
tenancies in the 2015 to 2021 period.
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Table 4.6: Market Share Analysis, Proposed Specialty, 2015-21 ($M, 2013 dollars)
Contribution 2015 2017 2019 2021
to turnover
Trade area market share 9.5% $1.96 $2.02 $2.08 $2.14
Non-trade area expenditure (% of turnover) 17.5% $0.42 $0.43 $0.44 $0.45
Total - $2.38 $2.45 $2.52 $2.59
Source: Economic Associates estimates
4.3 Overall Centre Performance
Table 4.7 below summarises the anticipated overall centre performance based on the combined
performance of the limited line supermarket and specialty tenancies. Centre turnover is expected
to be approximately $10.75 million in the first full year of trade (2015), increasing to $11.73
million in 2021.
Based on a gross lettable area of 1,593m2, the centre is expected to achieve a sales productivity of
approximately $6,750/m2 in its first full year of trade (2015), increasing to approximately
$7,350/m2 in 2021 (assuming no new additions to the centre’s network).
Based on these trading levels the proposed centre would trade consistently with benchmark
trading levels for recently established neighbourhood scale centres (i.e. between $6,000/m2 and
$7,000/m2).
Table 4.7: Overall Centre Performance, 2015-21 ($M, 2013 dollars)
Contribution 2015 2017 2019 2021
to turnover
Trade area penetration (% of total 16.8% $8.87 $9.14 $9.41 $9.68
available retail expenditure)
Non-trade area expenditure 17.5% $1.88 $1.94 $2.00 $2.05
Total - $10.75 $11.08 $11.41 $11.73
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5 CENTRES IMPACT ANALYSIS The purpose of this section is to estimate the likely impacts of the establishment of the new centre on the existing and approved centres network that currently services the trade area. The principal focus of this impact analysis is the impact on centres, not individual retailers. The only instance where the impact on a particular retailer is pertinent is when there is a clear nexus between the ongoing viability of that individual retailer and the viability of the centre. This particular issue arises most commonly when there is concern about the ongoing viability of an anchor tenant without which a given centre cannot survive. 5.1 Impact Defined Economic impact is the probable reduction in retail turnover at existing shopping centres and retail areas resulting from the introduction of competitive development in the form of a new centre or expansion of an existing centre. The expected turnover generated by the new centre, or the additional turnover generated by centre extensions represents the dollar impact on an area’s retail network in the first full trading year in which it is introduced. That is, once the new centre or centre extensions have been trading long enough to ‘settle in’ (usually a year), subsequent improvements in that centre’s turnover performance cannot be considered as a further impact, as it is by then an established part of the retail network. It then becomes subject to the impacts of competitive strategies of other centres and/or the impacts of further new competition. Dollar impacts are usually distributed among competitive centres and retail areas taking into account: • The new or extended centre’s size and function; • The location of competitive centres or retail areas of comparable size and/or function; • Shopper access relative to competitive centres/retail areas; and • Physical attributes of competitive centres and retail areas, such as age, design, situation (free- standing centre or part of a central business area), etc. No universally accepted standards of impact exist (or are possible) as each retail market and retail development is different. A frequently used informal benchmark is that an impact of 15% or more of turnover should be cause for concern. The primary concern is to ensure that the premature or inappropriate introduction of a new centre or centre extension does not jeopardise the current or future delivery of a range of retail goods and services available in a variety of centre types (neighbourhood/convenience, sub-regional, regional) to the community. This concern is not about the impacts upon the profitability of affected centres and retailers, or about affording existing centres and retailers’ protection from healthy competition or from changing market conditions. The 15% benchmark for impact of concern must be applied with considerable caution as each centre and trade area is different. For example, in stagnant or declining markets such as some inner suburban areas or in many rural communities, impacts of 15% or more upon an existing centre or retail area would be cause for concern. There may be insufficient prospects for growth to ameliorate these impacts within a reasonable time period. Even then, the potential loss (or change of use) of existing retail facilities, which might consist of old or outdated floor space, Peregian Village Market Economic Need and Impact Assessment 23 December 2013 13034 Report Rev 0
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must be weighed against the replacement and improvement of retail facilities that a new development might bring. It is also relevant to consider the existing trading performance of retailers, insofar as an impact greater than 15% on turnover at a centre trading above benchmark levels is unlikely to affect its viability or its ability to respond to competitive pressure. In contrast in areas of high growth potential, impacts on centre turnovers well above the 15% usually can be absorbed with little difficulty. Growth in the pool of retail expenditure available to support all retail centres usually will quickly restore turnover initially lost to a new competitive centres in such areas. 5.1.1 Impact of Proposed Retail Development The extent of impact of the proposed development on other centres is largely driven by the proposed limited line supermarket. Within the trade area, there are limited take home food or grocery opportunities. The trade area only hosts a single 290m2 Friendly Grocer food store, supported by a green grocer and bakery. Existing retail provision within the trade area is concentrated in in dining & take-away food and personal & other goods retailing. Overall, the existing Peregian Beach neighbourhood centre has a strong visitor as opposed to convenience focus. While material impacts are likely to be sustained by the Peregian Beach neighbourhood centre, the proposed development is expected to result in a reduction expenditure currently leaking to supermarket anchored centres outside the trade area located at Peregian Springs and Coolum. Table 5.1 below indicates that the most significant impacts (in terms of a percentage reduction in turnover) are likely to be sustained by • Peregian Springs Shopping Centre (Coles anchored): 7.8%; • Peregian Beach neighbourhood centre: 7.1%; • Coolum Shopping Village (Coles anchored): 5.3%; • Coolum Park Shopping Centre (Woolworths anchored): 4.8%; and • Coolum Esplanade (Main Street): 4.3%. The scale of anticipated impacts is not sufficient to threaten the viability of any existing or approved centre development within or near the proposed development’s trade area. Notably, approximately 80% of the proposed development’s turnover is in the form of reduced escape expenditure, rather than impacts on centres located within the trade area. Centre impacts sustained by the Peregian Springs Shopping Centre are likely to be ameliorated rapidly by take-up of residential allotments in the Peregian Springs master planned community. Similarly, residential growth in and around Coolum can be expected to ameliorate impacts at Coolum based centres. The proposed development responds to a clear gap in the local retail network, whereby a discrete community of approximately 4,500 persons has limited access to convenience retail facilities unless they choose to access centres outside their community. The introduction of a new retail development in any area results in tenant relocation and trading impacts on individual tenancies. However, the nature of retail provision within Peregian Beach neighbourhood centre is characterised by a large number of smaller scale tenancies (i.e. generally less than 200m2), which can be used for various uses. Any closures of individual tenancies (if any) would be more than Peregian Village Market Economic Need and Impact Assessment 24 December 2013 13034 Report Rev 0
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offset by the increase in range and convenience of retail facilities afforded by the proposed
development.
While the proposed development is anticipated to have some modest impact on the existing
Peregian Beach neighbourhood village in the short term, medium to longer term the proposed
development is likely to reinforce the neighbourhood centre by reducing the quantum of retail
expenditure leakage from the trade area. Therefore, in the medium to long term the proposed
development is not likely to be directly competitive (rather complementary) to the existing
Peregian Beach neighbourhood centre.
Table 5.1: Impact of Proposed Retail, 2015
Centre Retail Floor Est. Sales Est. Sales Impact ($M) Impact (%)
Space (Pre) (post)
Peregian Beach NC 5,621 $32.60 $30.29 -$2.31 -7.1%
Peregian Springs SC (Coles) 3,901 $31.60 $29.12 -$2.47 -7.8%
Coolum Shopping Village (Coles) 3,913 $30.72 $29.10 -$1.61 -5.3%
Coolum Park SC (W'worths) 3,560 $29.01 $27.62 -$1.40 -4.8%
Coolum Esplanade 6,247 $37.79 $36.18 -$1.61 -4.3%
Sunrise SC 811 $5.07 $4.99 -$0.08 -1.6%
Sunrise Beach Centre 1,249 $7.78 $7.68 -$0.10 -1.2%
Centres further afield 45,548 $307.45 $306.59 -$0.86 -0.3%
Proposed development 1,593 - $10.75 -
Other - -$0.31 -
Total - $482.02 $482.32 -$10.75 -
Source: Economic Associates estimates
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6 NEED ASSESSMENT From an economic perspective, community wellbeing in terms of the provision of retail services is enhanced through the provision of the broadest range of retail facilities within an area without threatening the ongoing viability of any established retail facilities. Even in situations where a new development may threaten the viability of existing facilities the community’s economic wellbeing may (at times) be served best by allowing the proposed development if it better meets the community’s need relative to the threatened existing centre or retailer. The subject site is located opposite the existing Peregian Beach neighbourhood centre on land which already has approval for commercial activities. A review of the Peregian Beach neighbourhood centre indicates that there is no opportunity to accommodate facilities similar to that proposed in the subject development within the existing centre. From an economic perspective, the subject site represents an appropriate and logical location for expanding retail facilities within Peregian Beach. The proposed development responds to a gap in the existing provision of retail facilities within Peregian Beach. Specifically, there is a clear gap in the provision of convenience retail facilities to service the needs of local residents and visitors (particularly self-catering visitors). Existing convenience retail provision within the Peregian Beach neighbourhood centre is limited to a 290m2 Friendly Grocer food store, a green grocer and a bakery. Hence the trade area’s population of some 4,500 persons must access convenience retail facilities outside the trade area. The nearest supermarkets to the subject site include: • Coles at Peregian Springs: 3.7 km; • Coles at Coolum Beach Village: 5.6km; and • Woolworths at Coolum Park Shopping Centre: 8.8km. To access a choice in supermarkets trade area residents must travel a considerable distance. By offering a locally based alternative to the two nearest supermarkets (both are Coles supermarkets), trade area residents have the potential to experience travel time savings when undertaking their grocery shopping. The proposed development would offer additional choice in supermarket offers. Being a limited line supermarket it is unlikely that the tenant would be a Coles or Woolworths, hence an entirely new supermarket retailer would be brought into the eastern beaches area. The existing local convenience retail market is dominated by the two Coles supermarkets. As stated above the nearest non-Coles supermarket is the Woolworths at Coolum Park Shopping Centre, some 8.8 kilometres from the subject site. The introduction of a limited line supermarket to service the Peregian Beach community, a community of approximately 4,500 persons, would increase competition in the local convenience retail market. Local level competition can come in a number of forms including lower prices, increased range and choice and better service standards. The construction of the proposed centre would generate project based employment opportunities within the construction sector. Once operational the proposed development will create localised employment opportunities for 50-60 workers. Obviously, the proposed development would result in a redirection of expenditure from other centres, particularly from those outside the trade area; hence some of these employment opportunities are likely to be Peregian Village Market Economic Need and Impact Assessment 26 December 2013 13034 Report Rev 0
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transfers. Having said this, the creation of local level employment opportunities would reduce travel times for local retail workers. 6.1 Summary In summary, the addition of the proposed development would provide a number of community benefits including: • Responds to an existing market gap – rather than seeking to replicate existing facilities the proposed development seeks to fill an existing gap in the local retail market. As a result the proposed development is supported largely by capturing escape expenditure as opposed to a redistribution of expenditure among existing centres located within the trade area; • Greater choice and convenience – The addition of the proposed development would improve choice and convenience for trade area residents and will add to the diversity of the retail offered within the trade area; • Savings in travel time and costs – The proposed centre would reduce the travel time and associated cost of trade area residents by reducing the need to fulfil convenience retail and top-up shopping needs at centres outside the trade area; • Increased competition – the proposed development is likely to enhance local competition which has the potential to lead to lower prices, increased range and better service standards; and • Localised employment opportunities – the proposed development would enhance the range of employment opportunities available at a local level by providing locally based employment opportunities for retail workers resident to Peregian Beach. The above benefits are anticipated to be achieved without any the viability of any existing, approved or designated centre being threatened. Based on the above, there is a high level of economic need for additional convenience retail facilities within the identified trade area and the proposed development appropriately meets that need. Peregian Village Market Economic Need and Impact Assessment 27 December 2013 13034 Report Rev 0
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