2016-12-12 General Committee - Attachment 1 to Item 6 - Biodiversity Assessment Report

                                                Noosa Biodiversity Plan – Biodiversity Assessment Report




    •   An increase in extreme rainfall events and rainfall events becoming more intense (CSIRO,
        2015; SCC, 2010)
    •   Evapotranspiration rates 10-11% higher (Low, 2011)
    •   Increased bushfire risks (Noosa Council, 2015a)
    •   Increased CO2 levels in the atmosphere, leading to a decline in the nutritional quality of foliage
        (Low, 2011)


The anticipated impacts of climate change that are most relevant to the biodiversity of the Noosa Region
include:

    1. Increased coastal erosion, coastal hazards and extensive inundation from sea level rises,
       storm surge, increased coastal winds, a southern shift and greater intensity of cyclones, and
       increased storm intensity and/or frequency. Noosa shire has extensive stretches of low-lying
       coastal and dune ecosystems, which are highly susceptible to coastal erosion and inundations.
       Sea level rise will significantly impact coastal flora and fauna, particularly wetlands and
       shorebirds, which feed and breed in low-lying wetland areas. Rising sea levels are likely to
       result in a contraction of the saltmarsh zone as areas become more regularly or permanently
       inundated.
    2. More frequent mass die-off of vegetation and vulnerable flora and fauna due to higher
       mean temperatures and an increased frequency of extremely hot days. Noosa Shire has
       several vegetation communities, as well as species of flora and fauna that are susceptible to
       mass die-off from hot conditions. Communities particularly susceptible to drought-related
       deaths and die-backs include dune crests, ridgetops, sunny northern slopes, and rainforests
       where shallow soils overly rock. Impacts to flora and fauna are species-specific, and depend
       on the species ability to physiologically tolerate, or (for fauna) behaviourally adapt to extended
       periods of hot conditions. The species most vulnerable to rising temperatures come from large
       and thermally stable rainforest refugia where they have a limited physiological or behavioural
       capacity to cool themselves. Flying foxes are one group of fauna that are particularly vulnerable
       to mass die-offs caused by excessively hot conditions.
    3. Loss of rainforest and expansion of eucalypt forests resulting in greater intensity,
       spread and frequency of bushfires due to reduced soil moisture and increased potential
       evapotranspiration, high temperatures, and more frequent and intense El Niño’s and La Niñas.
       The lowland rainforests of Noosa are particularly vulnerable to the impacts of increased
       bushfire activity. Fire is a more significant cause of rainforest death than drought, and a more
       important determinant of rainforest distribution than rainfall. These impacts will be exacerbated
       by invasive weeds such as lantana, which can increase ground and mid strata fire fuel loads
       leading to hotter fires.
    4. Loss of saltmarshes and swamps from encroachment by estuarine and coastal ecosystems
       (especially mangroves) as sea levels rise. Noosa Shire contains low-lying ecosystems and
       vegetation communities that are vulnerable to the projected impacts of a warming world.
       Landward movement and encroachment of estuarine and coastal ecosystems (especially by
       mangroves) may be at the expense of other communities such as saltmarsh, freshwater
       wetlands and swamps. Although saltmarshes, swamps and wetlands have the potential to
       relocate landwards in response to rising sea levels, they occupy higher land than mangroves
       and their relocation will depend on their ability to migrate and the presence of any barriers to
       such migration, such as roads and other development and infrastructure.
    5. Reduction or loss of native folivores due to increased CO2 concentrations reducing leaf
       palatability in areas with low soil fertility. Noosa Shire is home to both threatened and common
       folivores that are likely to decline due to a reduction in leaf nutritional content as the amount of


  © ECO LOGICAL AUSTRALIA PTY LTD                                                                       57