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Appendix H - Economic Assessment
REPORT
Appendix H
Economic Assessment
PR139784 | Town Planning Report | v4 | 5 June 2019
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Brisbane Design Studio Office
Suite 18, Level 2, Central Brunswick, Cnr of Brunswick and Martin Streets, Fortitude Valley QLD 4006
PO Box 1559 Fortitude Valley QLD 4006
T +61 7 3237 8899
RPS Australia East Pty Ltd ABN 44 140 292 762
A member of the RPS Group Plc
Date: 11/06/2018
Our Ref: 140586-1
Via: E-mail Only
Attn: Mark McConnell
Dear Mark,
RE: Cooroy Care Farm Development – Economic Needs Assessment
Thank you for the opportunity to provide this assessment. This letter examines the need for residential aged
care places in the defined Catchment. It also considers dementia and respite care demand in the Catchment,
as well as broader market trends in respite care.
Catchment Definition
The proposed Cooroy Care Farm development (“Subject Site”) is adjacent to Yurol State Forest and is
serviced by major arterial roads including the Bruce Highway and Cooroy Noosa Road. The Subject Site is
bound by Elm Street and Rose Gum Road to the north and Bruce Highway to the south.
Given the targeted and niche nature of aged care services proposed for the Subject Site, a larger Catchment
area has been defined for this assessment. The Statistical Area Level 2 (SA2) geographies selected include:
Coolum Beach; Noosa Hinterland; Peregian Springs;
Eumundi - Yandina; Noosaville; Sunshine Beach; and
Noosa Heads; Peregian Beach - Marcus Tewantin.
Beach;
These geographies (Figure 1) are based on the 2016 Australian Statistical Geography Standard (ASGS), as
defined by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).
rpsgroup.com.au Australia Asia Pacific | Europe, Middle East & Africa | North America
Page 3
Figure 1 Catchment Map Demographic Profile Over the past 15 years, the 70 years and over age cohort in the Catchment has grown bullishly from 5,915 in 2001 to an estimated residential population of 11,956 in 2016. This equates to an increase of 6,041 residents and an average annual growth rate of 4.8% over this timeframe. Strong growth is expected to continue for this age cohort within the Catchment, with the residential population projected to reach 22,240 people by 2036. This equates to an increase of 10,284 residents and an average annual growth rate of 3.2% over the next 20 years. 140586-1 | Cooroy Aged Care Assessment | 11/06/2018 Page 2
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25,000
23,000
21,000
19,000
Population Aged 70+
17,000
15,000
13,000
11,000
9,000
7,000
5,000
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
Historical Projected
Figure 2 Historical and Projected Population, Aged 70 years and over, Catchment, 2001 to 2036 1
Methodology
RPS Economics utilised a two-stage approach (Figure 3) to calculate need for residential aged care places
within the Catchment.
Figure 3 Assessment Approach
Aged Care Demand
Applying the Queensland provision ratio of 74.4 residential aged care places per 1,000 to the Catchment
population aged 70+, RPS Economics estimates that there is currently demand for 971 residential aged care
1 ABS (2017), Population by Age and Sex, Regions of Australia, 2016, Cat. No. 3235.0, Australian Bureau of Statistics, Canberra
QGSO (2017), Projected Population (medium series), by statistical area level 2 (SA2), SA3 and SA4, Queensland, 2011 to 2036,
Queensland Government Statistician’s Office, Brisbane
140586-1 | Cooroy Aged Care Assessment | 11/06/2018 Page 3
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places. This is projected to increase to demand for 1,655 residential places by 2036 (up 684 residential
places) and equates to an average annual growth rate of 3.0% over the next 18 years.
1,800
1,600
1,400
Residential Places Demand
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
Figure 4 Aged Care Demand, Residential Places, Catchment, 2018 to 20362
Aged Care Supply
As at 30 June 2017, the Catchment had a total supply of 873 residential aged care places. Only one
residential aged care facility was located within the suburb of Cooroy (south-east of the Subject Site).
Spatially, the rest of current supply is situated east of the Subject Site, extending as far north to Tewantin
and as far south to Coolum Beach.
2 ABS (2017), Population by Age and Sex, Regions of Australia, 2016, Cat. No. 3235.0, Australian Bureau of Statistics, Canberra
PC (2018), Report on Government Services 2018, Productivity Commission, Canberra
QGSO (2017), Projected Population (medium series), by statistical area level 2 (SA2), SA3 and SA4, Queensland, 2011 to 2036,
Queensland Government Statistician’s Office, Brisbane
140586-1 | Cooroy Aged Care Assessment | 11/06/2018 Page 4
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Table 1 Aged Care Supply, Residential Places, Catchment, 30 June 2017 3
Service Name Suburb Residential Places
Coolum Waters Care Centre Coolum Beach 50
St Mary's Coolum Beach Coolum Beach 76
Kabara Hostel Cooroy 85
Estia Health Mount Coolum Mount Coolum 120
Ozcare Noosa Heads Noosa Heads 130
Arcare Peregian Springs Peregian Springs 90
Carramar Hostel Tewantin 142
Noosa Residential Care Tewantin 180
Grand Total 873
Gap Analysis
Based on the demand and supply findings (Figure 4 and Table 1), there is currently net additional need for
98 residential aged care places. Assuming no additional supply enters the market, net additional need is
projected to increase to 782 residential aged care places by 2036. This equates to an average annual growth
rate of 12.3% over the next 18 years.
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
Residential Places
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
Current Supply Net Additional Need
Figure 5 Net Additional Need, Residential Places, Catchment, 2018 to 2036
3 AIHW (2017), Aged care service list: 30 June 2017, Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, Canberra
140586-1 | Cooroy Aged Care Assessment | 11/06/2018 Page 5
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Dementia and Respite Care
In 2016, people with dementia accounted for 52% of all residents in residential aged care facilities. Applying
this incidence rate to residential aged care demand, RPS Economics estimates current need of 505
dementia places. By 2036, there will be demand of approximately 860 dementia places (up 356 dementia
places).
1,000
900
800
700
Places (Demand)
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
Dementia Respite
Figure 6 Residential Aged Care Demand, Dementia and Respite Places, Catchment, 2018 to 2036 4
Similarly, 16.9% of residents in residential aged care facilities received respite care in 2017. Applying this
incidence rate to residential aged care demand, RPS Economics estimates current need of 164 respite
places. By 2036, there will be demand of approximately 280 respite places (up 116 respite places).
On a National level, “residential respite care is not being met5.” A recent study undertaken by Carers
Australia identified low availability, high care needs and affordability as the main barriers to respite care take-
up. Conversely, the study found that respite care could be improved with the provision of:
Cottage style accommodation;
Overnight or weekend respite; and
Secure respite for dementia and others with high needs.
The study stressed the need for cottage style and/or other short term residential respite to alleviate the
pressure on residential respite places and, more importantly, give carers and consumers greater choice in
the types of accommodation that best suits their needs, the length of stay that is needed and an option for
care in their local community (particularly in rural, regional and remote locations).
4 ABS (2017), Population by Age and Sex, Regions of Australia, 2016, Cat. No. 3235.0, Australian Bureau of Statistics, Canberra
DA (2018), Key facts and statistics, accessed at https://www.dementia.org.au/statistics, on 15 May 2018
PC (2018), Report on Government Services 2018, Productivity Commission, Canberra
QGSO (2017), Projected Population (medium series), by statistical area level 2 (SA2), SA3 and SA4, Queensland, 2011 to 2036,
Queensland Government Statistician’s Office, Brisbane
5 CA (2017), Improving access to aged residential respite care, Carers Australia, Deakin
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Conclusions and Recommendations
The residential aged care market in the Catchment is currently undersupplied. There is demonstrated need
for an additional aged care provider to enter the market, with strong growth projected for the 70 years and
over age cohort.
The benefits of a dedicated specialist aged care facility in Cooroy are three-fold:
Carers and consumers are given greater choice in care;
Unmet need within the Catchment is reduced; and
The burden for dementia and respite care is reduced.
As such, a material change of use approval for the Subject Site should be progressed.
If you have any further queries, please do not hesitate to contact me on 0431 676 254 or via email at
[email protected] sincerely
RPS
Mark Wallace
Regional Technical Director – Economics
cc: Simon Pollock, RPS Planning
Chiara Towler, RPS Planning
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