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Appendix F- Economic Impact Assessment · MCU23/0078
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Noosa Village Mixed Use Development Economic Impact Statement for Development Application Prepared for Stockwell Development Group Pty Ltd 23 May 2023
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Deep End Services Deep End Services is an economic research and property consulting firm based in Melbourne. It provides a range of services to local and international retailers, property owners and developers including due diligence and market scoping studies, store benchmarking and network planning, site analysis and sales forecasting, market assessments for a variety of land uses, and highest and best use studies. Contact Deep End Services Pty Ltd Suite 304 9-11 Claremont Street South Yarra VIC 3141 T +61 3 8825 5888 F +61 3 9826 5331 deependservices.com.au Enquiries about this report should be directed to: Matthew Lee Principal [email protected] Disclaimer This report has been prepared by Deep End Services Pty Ltd solely for use by the party to whom it is addressed. Accordingly, any changes to this report will only be notified to that party. Deep End Services Pty Ltd, its employees and agents accept no responsibility or liability for any loss or damage which may arise from the use or reliance on this report or any information contained therein by any other party and gives no guarantees or warranties as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this report. This report contains forecasts of future events that are based on numerous sources of information as referenced in the text and supporting material. It is not always possible to verify that this information is accurate or complete. It should be noted that information inputs and the factors influencing the findings in this report may change hence Deep End Services Pty Ltd cannot accept responsibility for reliance upon such findings beyond six months from the date of this report. Beyond that date, a review of the findings contained in this report may be necessary. This report should be read in its entirety, as reference to part only may be misleading.
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Contents Executive summary i 1 Introduction 1 2 Location context 2 2.1 Regional context 2 2.2 Local context 4 2.3 Noosa Business Centre 6 2.4 Employment context 7 3 Planning context 10 3.1 Introduction 10 3.2 Shaping SEQ 10 3.3 Noosa Plan 2020 14 3.4 Noosa Shire Retail Plan 18 3.5 Summary 19 4 Proposed Noosa Civic Village 20 4.1 Proposed use schedule 20 4.2 Development timing 22 5 Retail need 23 5.1 Introduction 23 5.2 Catchment analysis 23 5.3 Tourism 31 5.4 Retail provision 32 5.5 Retail need 35 5.6 Summary 38 6 Trading effects 39 6.1 Introduction 39 6.2 Approach 40 6.3 Noosa Civic Village sales 41 6.4 Centre impacts 42 6.5 Summary 45 7 Economic outcomes 46 7.1 Introduction 46 7.2 Economic benefits 46 7.3 Economic disbenefits 49 7.4 Summary 50 Noosa Village Mixed Use Development – Economic Impact Statement for Development Application Deep End Services
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Tables + Figures Table 1—Development schedule 20 Table 2—Catchment demographics 2021 27 Table 3—Catchment population trends and projections (2011 to 2035) 28 Table 4—Average per capita retail spending (2022) 29 Table 5—Catchment retail spending by type, 2016 to 2035 30 Table 6—Noosa Shire Tourism trends 31 Table 7—Catchment retail provision 33 Table 8—Analysis of traditional retail floorspace provision and need 37 Table 9—Analysis of supermarket floorspace provision and needs 38 Table 10—Noosa Civic Village forecast sales 41 Table 11—Catchment centres retail sales 2022 42 Table 12—Trading impacts 43 Table 13—Construction employment – VMU precinct 47 Table 14—NBC Masterplan ongoing employment 47 Figure 1—Region context 3 Figure 2—Local context 5 Figure 3—NBC employment precinct 7 Figure 4—Net Employment flows 9 Figure 5—Northern Sub-region growth 11 Figure 6—Prosper Element 3 Strategies 11 Figure 7—Activity centre designations 12 Figure 8—Economic areas 12 Figure 9—Regional activity centre type 13 Figure 10—Noosa Business Centre Framework & Character Plan 17 Figure 11—Noosa Civic Village ground floor plan 21 Figure 12—Catchment definition 24 Figure 13—Visitation to Noosa Civic 25 Figure 14—Activity centres within catchment 34 Noosa Village Mixed Use Development – Economic Impact Statement for Development Application Deep End Services
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Executive Background
summary 1. This report has been prepared for Stockwell Development Group Pty Ltd (Stockwell)
to analyse the economic impacts – both positive and negative – arising from the
construction and operation of the Noosa Civic Village Mixed Use Development
(‘Noosa Civic Village’). The development will operate as an expansion of the existing
Noosa Civic Shopping Centre and is within the Noosa Business Centre (NBC) at
Noosaville. The NBC forms part of a significant employment district extending into
neighbouring industrial and health precincts which together contain a total of
approximately 4,600 jobs.
2. Noosa Civic Village will include accommodation, office, retail, entertainment and
dining uses. It is proposed to incorporate 13,700 sqm of retail floorspace (including a
supermarket) along with a cinema and entertainment centre, upper level offices and
flexible co-work spaces, and 96 apartments.
3. ShapingSEQ designates the NBC as a ‘Major Regional Activity Centre’ with planning
policy support for a wide range of retail, entertainment, business, civic and other
uses.
4. Noosa Plan 2020 provides strong policy support for the NBC to grow as a location
for employment and activity. The planning scheme identifies the NBC as one of two
major centres but also references the centre’s designation as a Major Regional
Activity Centre in ShapingSEQ and identifies it as having the predominant role
providing future long-term growth and employment in Noosa Shire.
5. The proposed retail component at Noosa Civic Village (13,700 sqm) is consistent with
Noosa Plan 2020 which allows for an additional 6,500 sqm of code assessable
floorspace within the Retail precinct of NBC, as well as 7,500 sqm allowable as
impact assessable within the Village Mixed Use (VMU) precinct.
6. The other proposed uses are also consistent with Noosa Plan 2020.
Justification for proposal
7. Retail provision at the NBC serves a wide catchment that extends across the Shire
and into the regional hinterland, with the extent of this catchment informed by
analysis of visitation to Noosa Civic using mobile geolocation data.
8. The catchment has continued to experience population growth even during the
COVID pandemic, and growth is forecast to continue mainly through infill
development and high-density housing close to activity centres, with the rate of
growth increasing once overseas immigration recommences.
9. Tourism makes a significant contribution to local activity, in terms of the numbers of
visitors and spending on retail and other goods and services.
10. Given the intended strategic roles of centres within Noosa Shire, and the designation
of the NBC as a Major Regional Activity Centre, the current provision of traditional
retail floorspace (ie excluding LFR formats) is inadequate, with an immediate
undersupply evident, as well as a need for additional retail provision to support
ongoing growth.
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11. The inclusion of 13,700 sqm of traditional retail floorspace to be developed at Noosa
Civic Village is supported by forecasts of future retail need prepared in this report, as
well as being consistent with supportable floorspace growth as identified in work
prepared on behalf of Noosa Shire Council. Even with this development, there is
potential for other retail expansions to occur elsewhere in the catchment.
12. The provision of supermarket floorspace is currently well below the typical average
provision rate experienced throughout Queensland, with an immediate opportunity
to increase current supply by nearly 10,000 sqm to reflect typical average provision
rates, and with further opportunities in the future to expand supermarket provision.
13. Overall, there is a strong need case for additional retail development at the NBC,
with additional traditional retail floorspace incorporating a full-line supermarket as
well as other uses in convenience retail, lifestyle retail sectors and food and drink
outlets.
Competitive trading effects
14. Adverse competitive trading impacts would occur as a result of the redistribution of
spending from existing centres to the new Noosa Civic Village development once it
opens, and are relevant only insofar as they lead to significant sales impacts such that
businesses close and/or the performance of competing centres leads to a loss of
services for the local community. In the absence of any significant diminution in the
role and performance of existing centres, competitive impacts are not a legitimate
basis for withholding planning approval.
15. Given the expected competitive effects on other centres in the region, the modelling
presented in this report indicates that no centres will experience a significant loss of
sales such that major anchor stores would close or that the role of the centre would
be lost.
16. A large share of the redistribution of spending would actually involve people
shopping at Noosa Civic Village rather than within the existing component of the
Noosa Civic shopping centre. For example, some shoppers might shift a part of their
supermarket spending to the new competitor at Noosa Civic Village. This effect is
modelled at equivalent to a one-off 11.5% reduction in sales in 2027. Even so, this
would be within a range that is considered normal in a healthy retail environment.
17. Other factors are also relevant:
a. In most cases the impacts would result in lower sales expectations for centres
that would otherwise be trading well above the typical average.
b. In some instances the impacts would simply redistribute sales from one store to
another within an operator group. This would happen, for example, if Coles were
secured as the supermarket operator at Noosa Civic Village, in which case there
may be some switching of shopping trips away from the existing Coles
supermarket at Noosa Junction. In such cases the existing stores operated by
each brand would continue to trade from the established stores, even if the
performance of these stores would be somewhat reduced.
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c. Centres would be experiencing large increases in sales in the next four years
leading up to the development, so that once the impacts occur the resulting
sales performance is still well above current levels. Moreover, retail market
growth thereafter would erode the one-off impacts.
18. Overall, the conclusion to be drawn is that the proposed additional retail floorspace
will generate some competitive effect, but that this will occur within a larger market
at the time, and the effects would not lead to any diminution in the role or offer
available at competing centres.
Economic outcomes
19. The development will generate significant positive economic outcomes during
construction stages and the ongoing operation of new business activity. These
positive economic benefits can be summarised as follows:
a. An estimated 380 new direct jobs over an 18-month period, plus significant
indirect employment in the wider economy, during the construction phase.
b. An estimated 525 new ongoing employment positions, equivalent to nearly 400
full-time-equivalent (FTE) jobs, and with significant indirect FTE jobs (estimated
at around 600 or so) generated in the wider economy.
c. A wide range of consumer benefits including additional choice and convenience,
greater price competition, a wider retail offer, improved amenity for residents,
workers and visitors, new diverse and affordable housing opportunities, and the
creation of local employment opportunities.
d. Community benefits generated by reduced travel and lower emissions as people
are not required to travel to access shopping opportunities.
e. Benefits for businesses (existing and new) with the provision of new offices and
co-working spaces within an amenity-rich environment.
f. Benefits to Noosa’s tourism and events economy from the provision of new
entertainment and visitor-oriented uses.
g. Catalysing development within the NBC so that it is able to fulfil its role as a
vibrant business and employment centre, consistent with policy aims contained
in Noosa Plan 2020.
20. Against these positive outcomes, the analysis presented in this report shows that the
competitive trading effect on other centres would not adversely affect the role and
performance of those centres, and other potential disbenefits would be minor. The
project would therefore deliver a significant net economic benefit to the community.
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Introduction
This report has been prepared for Stockwell Development Group Pty Ltd (Stockwell) and
presents an independent Economic Impact Statement (EIS) to examine the economic
effects likely to arise from the proposed Noosa Civic Village Mixed Use Development
(‘Noosa Civic Village’).
The development involves the construction and development of land adjacent to the
existing Noosa Civic Shopping Centre for a mix of retail shops, cinema, other
entertainment uses, offices and apartments. Noosa Civic, located in the suburb of
Noosaville and within the Noosa Business Centre (NBC), is the most significant shopping
centre and employment cluster within Noosa Shire. Parts of the existing centre would be
refurbished as part of the development.
This report is organised as follows:
Chapter 2 describes the regional and local context relevant to the proposal, including the
role of Noosa Civic as a shopping and entertainment destination.
Chapter 3 summarises the relevant strategic retail planning context, as expressed in
ShapingSEQ and Noosa Plan 2020.
Chapter 4 describes the proposal including the proposed uses and likely tenancy mix.
Chapter 5 examines the need for additional retail floorspace having regard to the
catchment served by the centre, population trends and the role of Noosa Civic and the
wider NBC precinct in serving demand generated by tourists and other visitors.
Chapter 6 forecasts sales potential and trading effects on other centres, along with other
economic outcomes such as job creation and consumer benefits.
Chapter 7 summarises the report’s key findings.
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Location context
2.1 Regional The development is within the ‘Village Mixed Use’ (VMU) precinct of the NBC in the
context suburb of Noosaville, and is 7km west of the Hastings Street tourism precinct at Noosa
Heads, 30km north of Maroochydore and 130km north of Brisbane CBD (refer Figure 1).
The site is within the local government area of Noosa Shire.
Noosa Shire is a collection of suburbs and townships extending along the eastern
beaches and the Noosa River into the regional hinterland. The Shire encompasses
beaches, coastline, waterways, the Noosa Everglades, national parks, state forests and
bushland.
Urban development within Noosa Shire is concentrated in the coastal communities and
eastern beaches. The main residential areas are along the southern banks of the Noosa
River in the townships of Noosa Heads, Noosaville and Tewantin, and in coastal suburbs
at Sunshine Beach, Castaways Beach, Marcus Beach and Peregian Beach. The Shire also
incorporates small inland towns such as Cooroy, Pomona, and Cooroibah.
Regional access is provided between the coastal communities along David Low Way
which extends from Noosa Heads south to Sunshine Coast Airport. Walter Hay Drive and
Emu Mountain Road provide access from Noosaville southwards to Coolum, beyond
which the Sunshine Motorway extends to Maroochydore. Eumundi Noosa Road provides
access west to Eumundi where it joins the Bruce Highway, a major inland route
connecting Brisbane to Gympie and northern Queensland.
Noosa forms part of the wider Sunshine Coast region which extends southwards to
Caloundra and includes coastal areas within the Sunshine Coast Regional Council local
government area.
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Tourism is a key component of the local economy, with coastal towns attracting
significant visitation throughout the year. The region is also an appealing location for
retirement, leading to a high proportion of residents in older age cohorts.
Noosa Shire had a permanent population of approximately 56,870 persons in June 2021,
with growth generally occurring at around 550-600 persons per year.
In addition to tourism, strong economic growth is occurring in sectors such as healthcare
and social assistance. Diversification is also evident, with an emerging range of health-
related industries, manufacturing and other service industries, with NBC having an
important future role in supporting the diversification of Noosa’s economy.
Figure 1—Region
context
Source: Deep End
Services; QGIS;
ABS;
OpenStreetMap
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2.2 Local context The NBC is within Noosaville, which extends from the Noosa River foreshore to Lake
Weyba, and from Ross Island westward to Cranks Creek.
Noosaville is one of the largest suburbs in Noosa Shire, and along with a substantial
residential population it is a focus for regional economic activity including shopping,
business services, health facilities (anchored by Noosa Hospital), and other industrial and
commercial activities. The surrounding area provides approximately 4,600 jobs, most of
which are centred in and around the NBC, substantiating its designation as a Major
Regional Activity Centre (refer Chapter 3).
Employment-generating land uses are generally located to the north and west of the
precinct given the extensive bushland to the east and south.
To the west is a significant industrial precinct containing a wide mix of businesses in
construction-related industries, manufacturing, storage and distribution, wholesale sales,
car and boat repair and sales, and other sectors. The industrial estate also includes
Belmondos Organic Market which is a collection of businesses incorporating a grocery,
butcher, deli, bakery and café.
North-west of Eumundi Noosa Road another industrial precinct contains a mix of
industrial and commercial uses as well as some large format retail (LFR) and showrooms.
Bunnings is located in this precinct at the corner of Gateway Drive and Eumundi Noosa
Road.
Other uses in the area include a retirement community (Noosa Domain Country Club)
located north of Eenie Creek Road and east of Walter Hay Drive; a car sales precinct
between Walter Hay Drive and Eumundi Noosa Road; and a health services precinct
extends along Goodchap Street towards the Noosa Hospital.
The closest nearby shopping centre is Noosaville, around 3km to the north-east of the
NBC, which contains various components including traditional convenience retail (at
Noosa Village and as shopfront tenancies), large format retail (such as Harvey Norman)
and visitor-oriented uses along Thomas Street near Gympie Terrace. Further afield, retail
centres at Noosa Junction and at Hastings Street are also important shopping
destinations for people living with the region and for tourists.
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Figure 2—Local context
Source: Deep End Services; NearMap; Google Maps; Noosa City Council; Stockwell; QGIS
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2.3 Noosa Existing development within the NBC consists of the Noosa Civic Shopping Centre, the
Business Centre Noosa Civic Showroom precinct, and the Noosa Civic Business precinct.
Together these elements contain a total of 30,000 sqm of net lettable area and provide a
sub-regional shopping and services facility serving a permanent residential population in
a catchment that consists of Noosa Shire and parts of the surrounding hinterland. The
centre also serves a tourist visitor customer base and people living beyond the catchment
who might work in the area or visit regularly. The NBC is well-located to serve this role
given the central position within the Noosa region and good transport connections.
Noosa Civic Shopping Centre
Noosa Civic Shopping Centre provides a traditional retail offer and is anchored by a Big
W discount department store of 6,484 sqm and a Woolworths supermarket of
3,590 sqm. Total floorspace within the centre is approximately 18,000 sqm, of which
around 17,285 sqm is occupied by retail tenants.
Noosa Civic Showroom
The Noosa Civic showroom precinct is situated in the northern part of the centre
adjacent to Walter Hay Drive and Eenie Road and consists of 7,000 sqm of nettable
floorspace, of which 6,080 sqm is currently occupied by LFR tenants including BCF,
Beacon Lighting, and Adairs, and another 990 sqm is occupied by a veterinary clinic, an
F45 gym and a Pilates and yoga studio (FS8). There are no vacant tenancies.
Noosa Civic Business
A business precinct is located to the west of the core retail centre and contains a range of
mainly service-oriented uses including a Centrelink office, training and employment
placement services, community services and health-related activities. There are no retail
tenants within this precinct.
In addition to the components above, a pad site is occupied by a Caltex-Woolworths
service station.
Overall, the NBC is a successful existing centre that provides a range of uses to the
community and represents an important opportunity to continue to grow and provide for
a greater range of shopping, entertainment, business services and residential housing.
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2.4 Employment The NBC forms part of a wider employment precinct within Noosaville which includes:
context
• Noosa Civic and the associated Showroom and Business precincts
• The nearby industrial land to the west of Hofmann Drive
• Land to the north of Eenie Creek Road/Eumundi Noosa Road which contains LFR,
showroom, industrial and enterprise uses
• The medical precinct that extends along Goodchap Street to Noosa Hospital
• Education uses including Good Shepherd Lutheran College on Eumundi Noosa
Road/Walter Hay Drive to the north, and Noosaville State School and St Teresa’s
Catholic College to the east on Sea Eagle Drive.
This region is shown in Figure 3.
Figure 3—NBC
employment
precinct
Source: Deep End
Services; NearMap;
QGIS
In total, this area contains an estimated 4,620 jobs across a wide range of industries, with
key economic clusters in the following sectors:
• 1,110 jobs in manufacturing, construction services, wholesale trade and transport and
warehousing
• 1,010 jobs in shopping-centre based retail (ie excluding motor vehicle sales) and
incorporating cafés and restaurants
• 730 jobs in health care and social assistance (incorporating the medical precinct on
Goodchap Street including Noosa Hospital)
• 600 jobs in service sectors such as professional, scientific and technical services,
administration, finance and insurance, real estate services, public administration and
information media and telecommunications
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8 • 400 jobs in education and training. The NBC employment precinct accounts for 20% of all jobs located within Noosa Shire, with relative concentrations in wholesaling (55% of all Noosa jobs), manufacturing (44%), transport and warehousing (36%), retail (31%), personal services (29%), health (23%) and education (23%). Across the Noosa LGA there were a total of 24,240 employed residents in 2021, with above average representation (when compared to Queensland averages) in: • Accommodation and food services • Rental, hiring and real estate services • Administrative and support services • Arts and recreation • Retail • Professional, scientific and technical services. In 2021 there were 22,920 jobs available within Noosa Shire, resulting in a net outflow of 1,320 jobs when compared against the number of employed residents. This represents a relatively high employment self-sufficiency rate of 95%, meaning that in net terms the number of local jobs is close to the number of jobs required by the resident population. However, when examined on a sectoral basis it is clear that Noosa Shire ‘imports’ people to work in tourism-related sectors such as retail, accommodation and food services and arts and recreation, whereas people working in many other sectors are required to travel to Maroochy and other locations to seek work. These net inflows and outflows are shown in Figure 4. Development within the VMU precinct has potential to create new employment opportunities across retail and entertainment sectors, as well as in office-based professional, technical and administrative support sectors in which there are currently net employment outflows. Noosa Village Mixed Use Development – Economic Impact Statement for Development Application Deep End Services
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Figure 4—Net
+1,000
Employment flows
Source: ABS Census
+678
2021 +648
+500
Employment net inflows (+ ve) and outflows (- ve)
+92
+19
+0
-11
-45 -62 -62
-110 -109 -133
-163 -151 -144
-192 -200 -201 -220
-278
-500
-679
-1,000
-1,323
-1,500
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Planning context
3.1 Introduction This chapter presents a summary of existing strategic planning policy as it relates to
development within the NBC, referencing provisions in the Queensland state
government’s planning framework (ShapingSEQ) and existing local policy contained in
Noosa Plan 2020, as well as recent economic analysis undertaken on behalf of Noosa
Shire Council.
More detailed examination of planning issues are dealt with in the town planning report
attached to the Development Application.
3.2 Shaping SEQ ShapingSEQ was prepared by the Queensland Government, in collaboration with the 12
local governments that form all or part of the SEQ region, to guide the future
development of the region.
ShapingSEQ has statutory weight and presents the State planning framework to manage
growth, change, land use and development in SEQ, and informs preparation of planning
schemes for local governments, including Noosa Shire.
The provisions in ShapingSEQ aim to respond to and accommodate projected growth,
while ensuring that development is sustainable and responds to the community’s needs
for housing, jobs and services.
The plan is based on an expectation that the population within the SEQ region will grow
by nearly 1.9 million over a 25-year period, requiring more than 30,000 new dwellings to
be accommodated each year. Noosa Shire’s contribution to growth is anticipated to be
around 6,400 new dwellings and 9,000 new residents over the planning period (refer
Figure 5). Most of this is to come within the existing urban footprint in the form of infill
development close to activity centres, including within the NBC.
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Figure 5—Northern
Sub-region growth
Source:
ShapingSEQ, p120
ShapingSEQ strategies relating to urban development and economic activity are mainly
provided under the theme ‘Prosper’.
Element 1 is to achieve a high-performing outward focussed economy and includes a
strategy to support continued growth in population-serving employment and traditional
economic industries.
Element 3 relates to the regional activity centres network, and includes the strategies set
out in the extract below at Figure 6. The strategies support designated ‘regional activity
centres’ as locations in which to encourage a wider range of economic uses by leveraging
their existing assets and infrastructure. Regional activity centres are also to incorporate
additional complementary activities including residential development.
There is direct reference to synergistic opportunities in knowledge and technology
precincts and major enterprise and industrial areas which is relevant to development
within the NBC.
Figure 6—Prosper
Element 3
Strategies
Source:
ShapingSEQ, p52
The strategies set out in Figure 6 above are intended to apply to the regional centres
network that is described in Table 7 of ShapingSEQ as shown in the extract in Figure 7
below, in which Noosa is identified as a Major Regional Activity Centre.
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Figure 7—Activity
centre designations
Source:
ShapingSEQ, Table
7, p64
The designation of Noosa as a Major Regional Activity Centre refers to the NBC as shown
in Figure 8 below.
Figure 8—
Economic areas
Source:
ShapingSEQ, Map
3a, p57
Further direction on the anticipated role of Major Regional Activity Centres and the types
of development outcomes within such centres is presented in Table 8 of ShapingSEQ,
which is shown in Figure 9 over the page.
Major Regional Activity Centres such as the NBC are expected to serve a sub-regional
catchment, for which they provide a wide range of administrative functions and act as
centres for business and related activities, cultural and entertainment facilities, and both
comparison and convenience shopping. They are also to accommodate an emerging
creative industry and knowledge-based business sector.
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Figure 9—Regional
activity centre type
Source:
ShapingSEQ, Table
8, p65
Under Part C of ShapingSEQ, further description is provided for the Northern Sub-region
in which the NBC is located.
This section highlights the features of the Noosa region that make it an attractive location
to live, work and visit, including its coastal beach towns and historic inland communities.
In this context, development is to be consolidated, where possible, making use of existing
economic infrastructure around major urban centres, with development to occur in
regional activity centres in line with regional strategies.
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3.3 Noosa Plan Noosa Plan 2020 provides the local planning policy framework for managing growth
2020 across Noosa Shire. The planning scheme was adopted by Council on 17 September
2020.
It is noted that the planning scheme was approved by the Minister subject to a condition
which required that Council commence a review of the provisions of the Noosa Plan to
provide more detailed planning guidance for the Noosa Business Centre in order to
reflect the centre’s designation as a major centre for Noosa and a Major Regional Activity
Centre in ShapingSEQ.
Relevant aspects of Noosa Plan 2020 in relation to the NBC are summarised below.
Strategic Framework
• In Section 3.2.1 under the heading ‘Regional Context’, relevant extracts are as follows:
• Noosa serves “as a domestic and international tourism destination with
particular emphasis on nature-based recreation opportunities. Tourism and
retail are significant contributors to the local and regional economy and these
provide a strong platform of leverage for other parts of the economy”.
• In Section 3.2.4 under the heading ‘Housing to meet diverse needs of the community’,
relevant extracts include:
• “While low density, predominantly detached housing, prevails in Noosa Shire,
as the population ages, there is likely to be increased demand for a range of
housing that suits single and couple households in locations with good public
transport and access to services and facilities”.
• “Future housing demand, particularly for smaller dwellings, is likely to be best
met through 'infill' development within existing residential areas, on well-
located underutilised land, and within town centres in a mixed-use format.
Residential growth in and around existing centres with ready access to goods
and services, attractive public spaces and community activities is
encouraged”.
• “A range of measures are provided to encourage housing affordability
including requirements for small dwelling units close to centres”.
• In Section 3.2.6 under the heading ‘A diverse and resilient economy’, relevant extracts
are as follows:
• “Businesses are increasingly looking for flexible workspaces of different
scales and types which provide for multiple uses; coshared spaces with
opportunities to meet and share ideas; and provide well connected fast
communication and digital services. In order to meet these changing needs
and enable the diversification, business development and growth of priority
sectors, suitably located, zoned and serviced land is allocated. A mixture of
approaches is applied to ensure developments can be easily adapted to suit
both the current and future needs of business and industry. This includes
providing for shared cooperative spaces, digital hubs and mixed-use precincts
that support small and growing enterprises”.
• “The Noosa Shire activity centres hierarchy […] helps establish the respective
roles and functions of activity centres to ensure each centre contributes to a
network of vibrant activated centres with good accessibility and connectivity,
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high amenity and a unique sense of place. This hierarchy represents all the
retail-based centres that occur (and will occur) in Noosa Shire”.
• “The centres hierarchy also takes into consideration Noosa Shire's role in a
more regional context. It recognises that a proportion of the Shire's higher
order needs is fulfilled by activity centres in other areas, particularly the
principal regional activity centre of Maroochydore and to a minor extent
Gympie’s major regional activity centre” (noting that Gympie is outside the
ShapingSEQ boundary).
• “The Noosa Business Centre and Noosa Junction are the next level in the
hierarchy and are the major activity centres for Noosa Shire. Both have
distinct and complementary roles, with Noosa Business Centre having a
predominant role providing future long term growth and employment for the
Shire”.
• “The Noosa Business Centre is designated in the South East Queensland
Regional Plan 2017 as the only major regional activity centre in Noosa. The
major centre offers the greatest opportunity to accommodate most of the long
term growth and development for key priority sectors including knowledge-
based industries such as education and training, health, digital economy,
technology innovation, and research and development. This will be delivered
through a number of planning precincts to reflect the desired function and
role of the centre. Future retail development is provided for in a village mixed
use precinct designed around a vibrant open main street linked to an open air
village green space and connecting with the existing shopping centre”.
• Section 3.3.5 provides further direction on Economy and Employment and reiterates
the adopted activity centre hierarchy. With respect to Noosa Business Centre, the
provisions under 3.3.5(s) include:
• “Noosa Business Centre – is a key higher order centre in the Noosa Shire as it
is designated as a major centre in the South East Queensland Regional Plan.
It caters for the broader Noosaville, Tewantin and hinterland areas of the
shire. Its role and function are to provide for a mixed-use Shire-wide Business
Centre, with a focus on employment growth and economic diversification
being a key employment hub for Noosa now and into the future. Innovation
and knowledge-based industries, health, research and education are present
as well as higher order sub-regional retail including a discount department
store and full line supermarket”.
• “The Noosa Business Centre also includes a transit hub and offers a broad
range of commercial, community, cultural and entertainment services in
addition to high density housing, which is encouraged as an integrated
component of development within and near to the centre”.
Tables of Assessment
• Table 5.5.5.5 is the table of assessment for the Retail precinct and provides for code
assessment where the gross floor area for shops, service industry, adult store,
shopping centre and food and drink outlet does not exceed 24,500 sqm.
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• Table 5.5.5.6 is the table of assessment for the VMU precinct and provides that
impact assessment applies where the gross floor area for shops, service industry,
adult store, shopping centre and food and drink outlet does not exceed 7,500 sqm.
Zone Controls
• Under the Major Centre Zone Code, the Purpose and overall outcomes include:
• Section 6.4.1.2(2)(a) – “The major centres of Noosa Business Centre and Noosa
Junction are the most significant centres for the Noosa Shire. These major
centres service subregional catchments with complementary, not competing
roles and functions thereby not compromising the viability of each centre”.
• Section 6.4.1.2(2)(b) – “Development complements the higher order services at
the principal regional activity centre at Maroochydore; which is the focal
point for employment and services on the Sunshine Coast, with provision of
high-order retail and hospitality functions and cultural and entertainment
facilities catering to local and more distant communities, including the Noosa
community”.
• Section 6.4.1.2(2)(c) – “Major centres contain the highest order of community,
retail and commercial functions including entertainment and business
activities, as well as transport services in Noosa Shire”.
• Section 6.4.1.2(2)(d) – “Development does not compromise the hierarchy of
centres across the Noosa Shire, whether as a result of the impacts from
individual developments or the potential cumulative impacts of multiple
developments”.
• Section 6.4.1.2(2)(f) – “Major centres provide a variety of retail uses including
shopping centres, full-line supermarkets, specialty retail shops, food and drink
outlets such as cafes and restaurants, personal services, local offices and a
range of entertainment activities. Noosa Business Centre contains a higher
order of retail than Noosa Junction with a shopping centre anchored by a
single fullsize discount department store and a full line supermarket.
Complementary retail uses include large format retail showrooms and a
separate small format supermarket. Noosa Junction complements the Noosa
Business Centre with specialty retail stores, supermarkets and a variety of
entertainment uses such as restaurants, bars, cafes and cinema, catering to
the local community and visitors”.
• Section 6.4.1.2(2)(g) – “Entertainment activities contribute to the economic
activity and vibrancy of the major centres both day and night”.
• The overall outcomes with respect to development within the VMU precinct
include at Section 6.4.1.2(4):
• “ (e) Development includes a mix of small format retail such as specialty
shops, cafes and restaurants with opportunities for small multiple
dwellings located above ground level”.
• “ (f) A small format supermarket, entertainment activities such as cinemas,
hotel, bars, as well as short-term accommodation opportunities and
community uses develop in the precinct”.
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• The Criteria for assessment (Table 6.4.1.3) specifies under PO6 that an additional
small format supermarket is established in the VMU precinct with a maximum
gross floor area of 2,500 sqm. It is understood, however, that Council have
agreed to delete this provision.
Noosaville Local Plan
• Section 7.2.4 is the Noosaville Local Plan Code which incorporates the Noosa
Business Centre Framework & Character Plan which is shown in Figure 10 below. The
plan establishes the precinct-based approach which has been adopted as the basis
for Stockwell’s NBC Masterplan, although with some minor modification of the
boundaries between the precincts to reflect the approved and newly constructed
subdivision and lot layout.
Figure 10—Noosa Business Centre Framework & Character Plan
Source: Noosa Plan 2020 (Figure 7.2.4.5)
In summary, while the Noosa Plan 2020 supports the role of the NBC as a major centre
subservient only to Maroochydore in its intended higher-order function, it also imposes
several limitations on code assessable development and development outcomes, in
particular with regard to the additional retail floorspace to be developed within the VMU
precinct, and the extent to which additional supermarket floorspace can be
accommodated as code assessable development.
It is noted that the current planning scheme provisions provide for a total of 32,000 sqm
gross floor area across the NBC for shops, service industry, adult store, shopping centre
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and food and drink outlets, comprising 24,500 sqm within the Retail precinct and 7,500
sqm within the VMU precinct. Not all of the allowable retail floorspace within the Retail
precinct has been developed, and the proposed Noosa Civic Village seeks to reallocate
the unused allowance onto the VMU precinct (refer Chapter 4).
3.4 Noosa Shire The Noosa Shire Retail Plan was prepared by Location IQ in February 2018 on behalf of
Retail Plan Noosa Shire Council to provide an independent assessment of the recommended
appropriate provision of retail floorspace throughout Noosa Shire over the period until
2041.
The report was commissioned following refusal of a previous planned expansion at
Noosa Civic within what is now called the VMU precinct by a decision of the Planning &
Environment Court delivered on 16 December 2016. That proposal was for a retail
floorspace expansion of +22,230 sqm, which was found to be excessive (among other
reasons for refusal). It is noted that the Court favoured economic evidence that was led
on behalf of Noosa Shire, that a smaller development of up to around 15,000-16,000 sqm
of retail floorspace would be more appropriate.
The Location IQ report examines retail development opportunity within Noosa Shire and
includes the following components and analysis:
1. An overview of the region including the planning scheme applicable at the time
(Noosa Plan 2006).
2. A review of retail industry trends and structural changes underway.
3. Catchment area analysis, comprising:
a. Identification of a relevant geographic region served by retail facilities within
Noosa Shire, which was considered to generally comprise Noosa Shire and
extend south to Maroochy River ; and
b. Examination of population trends and expenditure patterns within the catchment,
and consideration of the size of the tourism component.
4. Description of the existing retail floorspace provision within the region and
examination of the extent to which people direct their purchases outside the region.
5. Analysis of future retail floorspace potential for both traditional (shopfront) retailing
and for large format (LFR) type development, as well as for other types of uses such
as cinemas and entertainment, based on supportable provision rate analysis.
This is an appropriate method by which to examine need for retail floorspace, and has
been adopted (with some modification) as the basis for the need assessment presented in
Chapter 5 of this report.
Using the above approach, the Noosa Shire Retail Plan provides support for the following
development outcomes:
• Within NBC:
• An increase of up to 17,500 sqm of traditional retail by 2026 including a DDS, a
new full-line supermarket and possibly another smaller format supermarket, plus
other specialty retail
• Up to another 5,000 sqm of traditional retail by 2036
• Up to 10,000 sqm of large format retail (LFR) in the short-term (by 2021) with
another 10,000 sqm in increments by 2041
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• Up to 10,000 sqm of entertainment uses such as cinemas, and other facilities
including trampoline park, rock climbing, and kids soft play
• The report makes the point that while expansion at Noosa Civic was “refused
because it represented ‘more of the same’ which might impact on other
convenience centres, the provision of an integrated cinema and dining precinct
would provide a point of difference which is currently not offered within the
Noosa Shire”.
• Elsewhere:
• Possible small format supermarket in Noosa Junction by 2031
• Additional entertainment and related uses at Noosa Junction
• Possible expansion of floorspace at existing supermarkets:
• Noosaville (noting that this is now occurring with refurbishments to the
Woolworths)
• Poinciana Place in Tewantin
• Cooroy
• Peregian Springs
• Additional LFR development (limited by land constraints) at Noosaville
• Small-scale additions elsewhere in smaller centres within the region.
The above outcomes refer to a preferred scenario which models retail floorspace
demand assuming that a larger share of retail demand is retained at centres within Noosa
Shire, reflecting its designated role as a Major Regional Activity Centre and with an
opportunity to widen the local retail offer.
3.5 Summary Shaping SEQ provides strong policy support for ongoing development within the NBC to
reflect its designated role as a Major Regional Activity Centre with a wide range of
business, innovation, retail, civic and entertainment uses as well as local diversified
housing.
Noosa Plan 2020 also provides strong support for the NBC to grow as a location for
employment and activity. The scheme references the centre’s designation in ShapingSEQ
and identifies it as having the predominant role providing future long-term growth and
employment in Noosa Shire.
Noosa Plan imposes limitations on development scale at the NBC, with assessment
provisions that facilitate 32,000 sqm in retail floorspace development, comprising
24,500 sqm in the Retail precinct and 7,500 sqm in the VMU precinct. The proposed
scale of development on the site is within this overall limit but involves reallocating
assessable floorspace from one precinct to the other.
In 2018 Noosa Shire commissioned an examination of retail development opportunity
throughout the Shire. This work endorsed additional development at the NBC to include
up to +17,500 sqm of new traditional (ie non-LFR) retail floorspace by 2026, including a
new full-line supermarket and possibly another smaller format supermarket, and
supported by an entertainment and dining precinct that would help to retain expenditure
otherwise flowing outside the region. The report also supported an expansion in LFR
development within showroom precincts.
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Proposed Noosa Civic Village
4.1 Proposed use The development scheme for Noosa Civic Village has been prepared by Buchan on
schedule behalf of Stockwell, providing for a mixed-use development in accordance with Noosa
Plan’s expectations for the VMU precinct. A schedule of uses is summarised in Table 1.
Table 1— Use type Area (GFA)
Development Retail 13,700
schedule
Business/commercial 2,800
Source: Buchan Cinema (6 screens) 3,050
Entertainment 1,540
Residential (96 apartments) 8,040
With respect to the retail component, the proposed Noosa Civic Village incorporates a
total of 13,700 sqm for shops, food and drink outlets and shopping centre uses. This is
consistent with Noosa Plan which provides for:
• An additional 6,500 sqm of code assessable floorspace within the Retail precinct, as
this precinct contains 18,000 sqm of floorspace within the specified uses compared
to 24,500 sqm of allowable floorspace under Noosa Plan 2020; and
• A further 7,500 sqm of floorspace allowable as impact assessable within the VMU
precinct under Noosa Plan 2020.
The proposal is consistent with the expected scale of retail development across with
precincts forming the NBC, and is well within the additional supportable retail
development identified in the Noosa Shire Retail Plan.
The retail tenancies incorporate a supermarket of 3,474 sqm, two larger mini major
tenancies of 1,579 sqm and 927 sqm, and a range of smaller tenancies within both an
internal mall setting (opposite the supermarket) and adjacent to the civic plaza and open-
air pedestrian connection to the existing Noosa Civic Shopping Centre.
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The business/commercial floorspace would be accommodated as a range of flexible
workspaces within upper levels, providing an opportunity to attract businesses operating
across professional sectors, thereby generating additional employment and building up
activity levels within the centre during the day.
The proposed entertainment uses include a 6-screen cinema complex and associated
entertainment use (defined as ‘indoor sport and recreation’ in Noosa Plan 2020 and likely
to be occupied by a bowling tenant) and are consistent with the planning scheme which
encourages hospitality and entertainment functions.
The proposed residential component would consist of 96 apartments delivered in a mix
of build-to-rent and short-term formats, and including a diversity of product across
studio, 1-bed, 2-bed and a few 3-bed formats.
Car parking is provided at basement and at-grade, with some street parking.
Figure 11—Noosa
Civic Village ground
floor plan
Source: Buchan
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4.2 Development According to information provided by Stockwell, construction of the proposed Noosa
timing Civic Village will occur over the period 2024 to 2026, with an 18-month construction
program.
The centre will open in around mid-2026, with 2026-27 therefore being the first full
financial year of trade.
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Retail need
5.1 Introduction This chapter presents justification of the proposed development in terms of the need for
additional retail floorspace, noting that the proposed scale of development is within the
allowable floorspace limits set in Noosa Plan 2020 and is supported by the Noosa Shire
Retail Plan prepared for Council in 2018.
For the purposes of this analysis the proposed Noosa Civic Village is considered to be an
expansion of the existing Noosa Civic Shopping Centre, providing an enlarged and more
diverse shopping offer with the addition of new retail and entertainment elements as well
as offices and dwellings, and likely to attract shoppers from a similar catchment to that
served by the existing centre.
The analysis of retail need adopts a standard catchment-based approach which analyses
retail demand generated by catchment residents and compares this against the existing
retail floorspace provision. An examination of the contribution from tourist visitors is also
included as this is an important component of the Noosa retail environment given the
large number of tourists visiting each year.
5.2 Catchment Catchment definition
analysis
The catchment area report has been determined from a range of factors including:
• The trading patterns of the existing Noosa Civic centre, drawing on analysis of mobile
geolocation data that identifies where visitors to the centre come from
• The road network in the region and customer preparedness to travel
• Natural and physical boundaries that may influence access to the centre
• The size, composition and location of other retail facilities and activity centre, which
may be used by residents and visitors as an alternative shopping destination.
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Based on this approach, the adopted catchment is illustrated in Figure 12 and consists of
a Primary sector and four Secondary sectors as follows:
• The Primary sector encompasses Noosaville and Tewantin surrounding Lake
Doonella and the Noosa River and extends south to include Doonan.
• The Secondary East sector incorporates the coastal suburbs of Noosa Heads,
Sunshine Beach, Sunrise Beach, and Castaways Beach.
• The Secondary South East sector is a narrow catchment sector along the coastline
extending from Marcus Beach through Peregian Beach and Peregian Springs to
Coolum in the south.
• The Secondary South West sector extends southwest along Eumundi-Noosa Road
and Eumundi Kenilworth Road to include Eumundi and Ridgewood.
• The Secondary North West sector extends north and northwest to incorporate the
small regional towns of Cooroy, Pomona and Cooran.
Figure 12—
Catchment
definition
Source: Deep End
Services; QGIS;
MapBox
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A key input in determining the catchment is the use of mobile geolocation data for
devices that have been recorded within the existing Noosa Civic Shopping Centre. This
data is represented in Figure 13 for the period 1 January 2018 to 31 December 2019 (to
reflect visitation patterns that are unaffected by COVID impacts on travel) and covers
approximately 42,000 visits made by around 16,000 devices. The data has been
purchased through the VISTA platform operated by Near and provides details of the
geolocation of smartphone devices where owners have location services turned on. The
data is collected through applications that Near owns or operates, during the process of
placing banner ads for smartphone applications that rely on advertising revenue, and
through partnering with other geolocation providers.
Figure 13—
Visitation to Noosa
Civic
Source: VISTA
mobile geolocation
data (Near) –
1/1/2018-31/12/2019
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The VISTA dataset shows that visitation levels (measured with respect to local population
numbers) correlate well with the defined catchment sectors (noting that some individual
areas are influenced by a low population base), with around two-thirds of all visits from
within the catchment, including 28% from within the Primary sector.
Although VISTA data provides a good source with which to analyse visitation to help
determine catchment sectors, the direct use of the data as an indication of proportion of
sales may exaggerate visitation by shoppers outside the catchment who may stay longer
(and therefore have more chance for their devices to be used with location services on).
This effect has been considered in subsequent analysis.
Demographics
Table 2 presents a summary of socio-demographic characteristics of the catchment
population, drawing on the most recent release of data from Census 2021.
The key highlights are as follows:
• The catchment has a similar average household size across the catchment in general,
but some of the more urban parts of the catchment, such as the Primary and
Secondary East sectors, contain much smaller households on average
• The Primary and Secondary East sectors are also characterised by the presence of
older residents, along with the Secondary North West sector which covers smaller
inland towns
• Average individual income is similar to the Sunshine Coast average, but the
catchment over-indexes at both the lower end and the higher end, reflecting the
presence of older residents in retirement and more affluent working age families,
particularly in the Secondary East sector, which covers Noosa Heads
• Household incomes show a similar pattern, with high incomes overall and especially
in more affluent suburbs, but generally lower incomes within the Primary sector
• The catchment has a more homogenous population in terms of country of birth, and
over-indexes, in particular, on people born in England
• A high degree of home ownership reflects the older age profile
• There is greater emphasis on detached dwellings, particularly in more regional parts
of the catchment, noting that larger proportions of townhouses, apartments and
other higher density formats are being created through infill development
• Household composition favours couple families, particularly those without children,
which reflects a greater proportion of retirees.
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Population
The catchment had an estimated resident population of 95,334 in June 2022, having
grown at a rate of 1.3% per annum over the three years since 2019 (or adding 1,195
persons per year on average). Prior to 2019, the catchment area experienced more rapid
population growth, with 2.3% increases per annum between 2016 to 2019, or more than
an additional 2,000 residents per year.
Within the catchment, growth has historically been focussed in the Secondary South East
sector where some broadhectare development opportunities remain around Peregian
Springs. In the Primary and Secondary East sectors, growth occurs as infill development
and is therefore more limited.
Population growth continued during the COVID-19 pandemic, mirroring the trends within
South East Queensland which benefited from interstate migration gains, while being less
impacted by reductions in net overseas migration.
Beyond 2022, the catchment area’s population growth is projected to be moderate when
compared to figures prior to 2019, based on projections released by the Queensland
Government Statistician’s Office (QGSO) which may be conservatively low. The
catchment is forecast to increase to 100,210 persons by 2027, at an average 1.0% pa, and
then to continue to increase to 102,185 persons in 2030 and 104,815 persons in 2035.
Although the growth projections are based on the official state government projections,
some modifications in the near term have been applied to reflect recovery out of COVID.
Table 3—Catchment population trends and projections (2011 to 2035)
Catchment area sector 2011 2016 2019 2022 2027 2030 2035
Population
Primary 21,567 22,996 23,706 23,825 24,685 25,180 25,925
Secondary East 10,918 11,569 11,984 12,238 12,850 13,120 13,470
Secondary South East 22,214 26,888 30,573 32,366 34,010 34,410 34,775
Secondary South West 4,981 5,611 5,872 6,283 6,740 6,950 7,340
Secondary North West 17,516 18,566 19,613 20,622 21,925 22,525 23,305
Total 77,196 85,630 91,748 95,334 100,210 102,185 104,815
Population growth (No. per annum)
Primary - 286 237 40 172 165 149
Secondary East - 130 138 85 122 90 70
Secondary South East - 935 1,228 598 329 133 73
Secondary South West - 126 87 137 91 70 78
Secondary North West - 210 349 336 261 200 156
Total - 1,687 2,039 1,195 975 658 526
Population growth (% per annum)
Primary - 1.3% 1.0% 0.2% 0.7% 0.7% 0.6%
Secondary East - 1.2% 1.2% 0.7% 1.0% 0.7% 0.5%
Secondary South East - 3.9% 4.4% 1.9% 1.0% 0.4% 0.2%
Secondary South West - 2.4% 1.5% 2.3% 1.4% 1.0% 1.1%
Secondary North West - 1.2% 1.8% 1.7% 1.2% 0.9% 0.7%
Total - 2.1% 2.3% 1.3% 1.0% 0.7% 0.5%
Source: Deep End Services; ABS; Queensland Government Statistician’s Office (QSGO) population projections 2018 edition
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Retail spending
Estimates of retail spending propensity by catchment residents are shown in Table 4 for
2022, based on information from the MarketInfo spending propensity model, which
combines information from various sources including the ABS Household Expenditure
Survey, ABS Census and National Accounts.
The spending estimates also draw on consumption forecasts prepared by Deloitte
Access Economics.
As shown in the table, catchment residents generate average retail spending of $16,350
per capita in 2022, which is 3% higher than the Queensland average. A much greater
variation from the average occurs in the Secondary East sector where average spending
by residents on Food dining, for example, is 16% above the State average.
Table 4—Average per capita retail spending (2022)
Spending category Primary Secondary Secondary Secondary Secondary Total QLD Comp. to
East South East South West North West catchment QLD av.
Food, Groceries & Liquor $7,024 $7,359 $6,801 $6,964 $6,936 $6,968 $6,712 +3.8%
Food dining $1,598 $2,019 $1,636 $1,563 $1,498 $1,641 $1,738 -5.6%
Non-food & Services $3,008 $3,416 $2,979 $3,086 $2,923 $3,037 $2,950 +3.0%
Large Format Retail $4,497 $5,151 $4,715 $4,750 $4,625 $4,699 $4,460 +5.4%
Total $16,126 $17,945 $16,131 $16,363 $15,983 $16,346 $15,860 +3.1%
Comparison to QLD average
Total +1.7% +13.1% +1.7% +3.2% +0.8% +3.1%
Source: Deep End Services; ABS; Market Data Systems; Deloitte Access Economics
The information in Table 5 combines the spending propensity data, projected forwards
using broad consumption forecasts by Deloitte Access Economics and analysis by Deep
End Services, and population projections presented previously in Table 3, to calculate the
total spending capacity by catchment residents on retail goods and services over the
period 2016 to 2030.
The analysis shows that total retail spending by all catchment residents is predicted to
increase from $1.56bn in 2022 to $1.91bn in 2027, then reach $2.13bn in 2030. By 2035
total retail spending is projected to be $2.53bn.
These are clearly very significant increases in spending capacity, totalling an additional
$572m in annual spending between 2022 and 2030 (noting that the figures are presented
in future dollars and exclude the effects of inflation). The additional spending capacity
will support new retail developments while also underpinning improvements in retail
performance for existing businesses.
Retail spending within the Primary sector is forecast to increase from $384.2m in 2022 to
$464.4m in 2027 (ie +$80m), then increasing to reach $518.2m in 2030.
Of importance to the planned supermarket at Noosa Civic Village is the growth in
spending on Food, Groceries and Liquor (FLG), which is forecast to increase from
$664.3m in 2022 to $807.8m over the four years to 2027 (+$144m) and then reach $885m
in 2030 (+$220m from 2022 levels).
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30 These are very substantial increases in available spending on the types of goods for which supermarkets are the dominant retail format, providing strong justification for additional supportable floorspace provision. Table 5—Catchment retail spending by type, 2016 to 2035 Spending market ($m) Average change (%pa) Spending category 2016 2019 2022 2027 2030 2035 2019-22 2022-27 2027-30 2030-35 Primary Food, Groceries & Liquor 138.3 153.6 167.3 200.7 219.9 254.0 2.9% 3.7% 3.1% 2.9% Food dining 40.5 42.7 38.1 57.4 69.4 95.6 | -3.7% 8.5% 6.5% 6.6% Non-food & Services 62.1 66.4 717 87.7 96.7 114.2 | 2.6% 4.1% 3.3% 3.4% Large Format Retail 85.4 90.5 107.1 118.6 132.2 152.7 | 5.8% 2.1% 3.7% 2.9% Total 326.3 353.2 384.2 464.4 518.2 616.5 2.8% 3.9% 3.7% 3.5% Secondary East Food, Groceries & Liquor 73.1 81.4 90.1 109.3 119.9 138.0 3.4% 4.0% 3.1% 2.9% Food dining 25.8 27.3 24.7 37.7 45.7 62.8 | 3.2% 8.8% 6.6% 6.6% Non-food & Services 35.5 38.1 41.8 51.7 57.0 67.1 | 3.1% 4.3% 3.3% 3.3% Large Format Retail 49.3 52.5 63.0 70.8 79.0 90.9 | 6.3% 2.4% 3.7% 2.8% Total 183.6 199.3, 219.6 269.6 301.5 358.7 3.3% 4.2% 3.8% 3.5% Secondary South East Food, Groceries & Liquor 156.7 191.9 220.1 267.7 290.9 330.0 4.7% 4.0% 2.8% 2.5% Food dining 48.5 56.3 52.9 80.9 97.0 131.3 | 2.0% 8.8% 6.2% 6.2% Non-food & Services 71.9 84.8 96.4 119.3 130.5 151.0 | 4.4% 4.4% 3.0% 3.0% Large Format Retail 104.7 122.3 152.6 171.3 189.5 214.8 | 7.7% 2.3% 3.4% 2.5% Total 381.8 455.3 522.1 639.2 707.9 827.0 4.7% 4.1% 3.5% 3.2% Secondary South West Food, Groceries & Liquor 33.5 37.8 43.8 54.3 60.1 714 5.0% 4.4% 3.4% 3.4% Food dining 9.7 10.3 9.8 15.3 18.7 26.5 | 1.7% 9.3% 6.9% 7.2% Non-food & Services 15.4 16.8 19.4 24.6 27.4 33.2 | 4.9% 4.9% 3.7% 3.9% Large Format Retail 22.0 23.6 29.8 34.2 38.6 45.7 | 8.1% 2.8% 4.1% 3.5% Total 80.6 88.5 102.8 128.4 144.8 176.5 5.1% 4.5% 4.1% 4.0% Secondary North West Food, Groceries & Liquor 110.3 125.6 143.0 175.8 193.9 224.9 4.4% 4.2% 3.3% 3.0% Food dining 30.7 33.1 30.9 47.8 58.2 80.6 | 2.3% 9.1% 6.8% 6.7% Non-food & Services 48.5 53.3 60.3 75.9 84.3 100.1 | 4.2% 4.7% 3.6% 3.5% Large Format Retail 70.9 76.9 95.4 108.3 121.7 141.3 | 7A% 2.6% 4.0% 3.0% Total 260.4 288.9 329.6 407.8 458.0 546.9 4.5% 4.3% 3.9% 3.6% Total catchment Food, Groceries & Liquor $11.9 590.3, 664.3, 807.8 884.6 1,018.1 4.0% 4.0% 3.1% 2.9% Food dining 155.1 169.7 156.5 239.1 289.0 396.7 | “2.7% 8.9% 6.5% 6.5% Non-food & Services 233.4 259.4 289.6 359.3 395.9 465.6 | 3.7% 4.4% 3.3% 3.3% Large Format Retail 332.2 365.9 448.0 503.2 560.8 645.3 | 7.0% 2.4% 3.7% 2.8% Total 1,232.6 1,385.3 1,558.3 19093 2,130.3 2,525.7| 4.0% 41% 3.7% 3.5% Source: Deep End Services; ABS; Market Data Systems; Deloitte Access Economics Note: figures in future dollars Noosa Village Mixed Use Development — Economic Impact Statement for Development Application Deep End Services
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5.3 Tourism Noosa is contained within the Sunshine Coast tourist region as defined by Tourism
Research Australia (TRA). Noosa and the wider Sunshine Coast region are major
destinations for domestic travellers and for international travellers to Australia.
Information on tourism visitation to Noosa Shire is presented in Table 6 based on data
provided by TRA drawing on the International Visitor Survey and National Visitor Survey.
Note that the data has been smoothed by presenting rolling averages across four years to
avoid fluctuations in estimates based on relatively small samples. Data after 2019 has not
been presented given the impacts from the COVID-19 pandemic; however, the most
recent information from TRA for January 2023 indicates that recovery in visitation is well
underway, with large increases in visitor trip numbers, nights stayed and spending in
Queensland when compared against January 2020.
Table 6—Noosa Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Shire Tourism Visitors ('000s)
trends
International 124 120 114 112 118 129 144 155 165
Domestic overnight 684 677 654 674 719 767 847 881 937
Source: Tourism
Research Australia Domestic day trips 828 912 926 990 1,152 1,131 1,108 1,152 1,139
(unpublished) Total visitors 1,636 1,709 1,693 1,776 1,989 2,027 2,099 2,188 2,242
Visitor nights ('000s)
Notes: data International 836 797 754 778 770 833 937 939 963
presented as rolling
Domestic overnight 2,947 2,886 2,768 2,828 2,944 3,077 3,418 3,592 3,838
averages over 4
Total nights 3,783 3,683 3,522 3,606 3,714 3,910 4,355 4,531 4,800
years; day trips are
visits lasting more Expenditure ($m)
than four hours and International $72.2 $69.4 $65.9 $65.6 $62.9 $76.6 $84.3 $87.9 $101.0
involving a round trip Domestic overnight $538.4 $523.2 $486.3 $529.5 $565.1 $612.2 $672.6 $698.3 $786.3
of more than 50km Domestic day trips $67.5 $79.4 $84.2 $89.4 $113.8 $111.3 $104.5 $109.0 $97.3
from home
Total spend $678.1 $672.0 $636.5 $684.6 $741.8 $800.1 $861.4 $895.2 $984.5
Retail spend component ($m)
International (@ 50%) $36.1 $34.7 $33.0 $32.8 $31.5 $38.3 $42.2 $43.9 $50.5
Domestic overnight (@45%) $242.3 $235.4 $218.9 $238.3 $254.3 $275.5 $302.7 $314.2 $353.8
Domestic day trips (@65%) $43.9 $51.6 $54.7 $58.1 $73.9 $72.4 $67.9 $70.9 $63.2
Total spend $322.3 $321.7 $306.6 $329.2 $359.7 $386.1 $412.7 $429.0 $467.5
The data shows that a total of around 2.24 million tourist visits were made to Noosa Shire
in 2019, which represents the last year unaffected by the COVID-19 pandemic. This
consisted of 165,000 international visitors, 940,000 overnight domestic visitors and 1.14m
day trips. For tourism data, a day trip is one lasting more than four hours and involving a
round trip of more than 50km from home.
Overnight visitors stayed a total of 4.8m visitor nights, while annual expenditure by all
types of visitors averaged $0.98bn in the four years to 2019.
All types of tourism were trending upwards prior to 2019, with annualised growth of
3% pa in visitor numbers, 2.5% in visitor nights, and 3.9% pa in total expenditure. With
recovery well underway, these growth rates may be replicated or even exceeded over
the next few years.
Table 6 also includes an estimate of the retail shopping component of tourism spending,
based on detailed survey results which indicate that spending on food and drink and
other shopping items accounts for around 45% of total spending by domestic overnight
visitors and 65% of spending by day trippers. An estimated proportion of 50% is applied
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to international travellers (in the absence of detailed information), based on an expected
increased likelihood of making retail purchases and eating out while on overseas trips
compared to when on overnight domestic trips.
Based on these estimates, total retail spending by tourists in 2019 was approximately
$467m. This represents around 25% of the combined available spending when catchment
resident expenditure is added for that year (from Table 5).
TRA data indicates that grocery purchases bought for self-catering purposes represents
around 5% of total spending by day-trippers. Assuming that the proportion of spending
on grocery purchases by overnight visitors would be higher, at 10%, this would imply
total spending by tourists of around $94m on grocery items in 2019, or 14% of the
available spending on food and groceries when catchment resident expenditure is added
for that year.
Overall, it is broadly estimated that at least 25% of retail spending within the catchment is
made by tourist visitors and others making trips into the region – including those living
just outside the catchment, people working within the area, and so on.
For groceries and other supermarket goods the contribution to spending on by people
other than catchment residents is broadly estimated at approximately 10-15% of the total
combined spending within the catchment on those items.
5.4 Retail Details of retail floorspace by centre across the catchment are presented in Table 7 over
provision the page, noting that this is based on floorspace surveys conducted in July 2022.
Total retail provision is estimated at approximately 153,500 sqm, of which around
114,135 sqm is in traditional retailing and another 39,360 sqm is LFR selling homewares,
furniture and other large format goods.
A large share of traditional retail floorspace is provided within the Primary catchment
where retailing is focussed at Noosa Civic (combined 16,700 sqm), Noosaville (14,730
sqm) and smaller centres including in and around Tewantin. LFR provision is mainly found
within the showroom precinct at Noosa Civic and in the surrounding area including
within industrial and enterprise zones adjacent to Noosa Civic (combined 24,250 sqm)
and at Noosaville (10,350 sqm).
Other significant collections of retailing occur within the Secondary North-east sector
including at Noosa Junction (combined 17,700 sqm of traditional retail) and Noosa Heads
(12,700 sqm), and with a total of 24,000 sqm of combined traditional retail at centres to
the south within the Secondary South-east sector.
Vacancy rates across the catchment centres are low, averaging just 3.8% across all
centres, and with a vacancy rate of just 3.2% at Noosa Civic. The only locations that have
high vacancy rates are smaller centres where an individual vacant tenancy can make a
large difference to the overall vacancy rate. Note that an IGA has recently taken up
vacant floorspace at Sunrise Shopping Centre.
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33 Table 7—Catchment retail provision Activity centre Super- Otherfood Totalfood Non-food Total trad’l LFR Total retail Vacant Vacancy market &drink & services retail shops rate PRIMARY NBC & surrounds Noosa Civic — retail* 3,590 830 4,420 12,040 16,460 825 17,285 270 1.5% Noosa Civic - showroom 0 0 0 240 240 5,840 6,080, 0 0.0% NBC surrounds incl industrial 0 1,970 1,970 500 2,470 17,580 20,050 0 0.0% Total NBC & surrounds 3,590 2,800 6,390 12,780 19,170 24,245 43,415 270 0.6% Noosaville Noosa Village SC 3,700 425 4,125 1,190 5,315 0 5,315 130 2.4% Homemaker & strip 0 2,760 2,760 4,145 6,905 10,365 17,270 405 2.3% Gympie Tce 0 2,460 2,460 50 2,510 0 2,510 130 4.9% Total Noosaville 3,700 5,645 9,345 5,385 14,730 10,365 25,095 665 2.6% Weyba Rd 1,300 790 2,090 0 2,090 150 2,240 200 8.2% Hilton Terrace 0 380 380 150 530 0 530 285 35.0% Tewantin TC 2,400 1,230 3,630 1,860 5,490 50 5,540 755 12.0% Noosa Outlook SC 520 515 1,035, 335 1,370 0 1,370 Oo 0.0% Noosa Bushlands 0 330 330 50 380 0 380 0 0.0% Total PTA 11,510 11,690 23,200 20,560 43,760 34,810 78,570 2,580 3.2% SECONDARY NORTH-EAST Noosa Junction Noosa Fair 3,765 350 4,115 1,120 5,235 0 5,235 0 0.0% Noosa Junction Plaza 2,155 860 3,015 1,260 4,275 0 4,275 0 0.0% Noosa Junction (balance) 0 4,890 4,890 3,300 8,190 895 9,085, 560 5.8% Total Noosa Junction 5,920 6,100 12,020 5,680 17,700 895 18,595 560 2.9% Noosa Heads Bay Village On Hastings 0 1,680 1,680 1,160 2,840 0 2,840 395 12.2% Hastings St 0 3,535 3,535 6,330 9,865 0 9,865 200 2.0% Total Noosa Heads 0 5,215 5,215 7,490 12,705 0 12,705 595 4.5% Quamby Place SC 350 715 1,065, 100 1,165 0 1,165 75 6.0% Sunshine Beach Shops 0 1,910 1,910 400 2,310 0 2,310 350 13.2% Sunrise SC 0 240 240 200 440 0 440 490 52.7% Total Secondary NE 6,270 14,180 20,450 13,870 34,320 895 35,215 2,070 5.6% SECONDARY SOUTH-EAST Peregian Beach 1,200 1,790 2,990 2,900 5,890 1,220 7,110 140 1.9% Peregian Springs SC 2,745, 605 3,350, 440 3,790 0 3,790 70 1.8% Coolum Village SC 2,550 550 3,100 550 3,650 80. 3,730 195 5.0% Coolum Beach strip 0 3,050 3,050 2,510 5,560 680 6,240 225 3.5% Coolum Park SC 2,830 220 3,050 280 3,330 0 3,330 80 2.3% Mt Coolum SC 785 420 1,205, 235 1,440 75 1,515 50 3.2% Total Secondary SE 10,110 6,635 16,745 6,915 23,660 2,055 25,715 760 2.9% SECONDARY SOUTH Eumundi TC 0 2,375 2,375 805 3,180 100 3,280 140 4.1% SECONDARY NORTH-WEST Pomona TC 1,360 1,550 2,910 680 3,590 500 4,090 340 7.7% Cooroy TC 1,700 1,830 3,530 2,095 5,625 1,000 6,625 180 2.6% Total Secondary NW 3,060 3,380 6,440 2,775 9,215 1,500 10,715 520 4.6% Total Catchment 30,950 38,260 69,210 44,925 114,135 39,360 153,495 5,665 3.6% Source: Deep End Services (based on surveys conducted July 2022); Stockwell; Property Council of Australia Note: *includes click and collect in Noosa Civic business precinct Noosa Village Mixed Use Development — Economic Impact Statement for Development Application Deep End Services
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Figure 14—Activity centres within catchment
Source: Deep End Services
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5.5 Retail need The approach to examining retail need is to estimate the amount of additional retail
floorspace might be supported as a result of two factors:
1. Greater retention of retail demand captured locally within the catchment due to
improved local offer and wider array of entertainment facilities (rather than being
directed outside the catchment to centres such as Maroochydore); and
2. Growth opportunities as a result of additional demand as the residential catchment
population grows and from growth in visitation by tourists and other visitors.
This is a similar approach to that used in the Noosa Shire Retail Plan prepared on behalf
of Noosa Shire Council in 2018.
The analysis only looks at opportunities in the traditional retail sector and excludes
potential for increased provision of LFR retailing. This is to reflect the focus on traditional
forms of retail development at Noosa Civic Village. Nevertheless, strong growth in
spending on LFR type merchandise (as per Table 5) will also support additional
development within the NBC Showroom precinct in the future.
Given the inclusion of a full-line supermarket within the development, a separate analysis
of retail need for additional supermarket floorspace has also been conducted.
Traditional retail provision analysis
On average, traditional retail floorspace is provided at an average of approximately
1.6 sqm per capita. This is based on the recognised Australia-wide retail floorspace
provision rate of approximately 2.2 sqm per capita, with 0.6 sqm per capita deducted to
reflect the typical contribution of floorspace occupied by shops selling LFR goods. These
figures are consistent with the approach used in the Noosa Shire Retail Plan.
Focussing on the figures for 2022, the average per capita provision rate can be applied to
the catchment population to show demand for 152,500 sqm of traditional retail
floorspace. These figures are shown in Table 8 on p37 (refer row B).
There is currently 114,150 sqm of traditional retail floorspace within the catchment (refer
row C) as described earlier in Table 7. An estimated 25% of this retail provision is
supported by tourists and other visitors, which means that of the total current traditional
retail supply, an estimated 85,600 sqm is directly support by catchment residents (row
E).
Comparing the underlying demand for 152,800 sqm of retail floorspace by catchment
residents against the existing supply of 85,600 sqm that is supported by their demand,
these figures imply that 66,900 sqm of the current demand for traditional retail
floorspace by catchment residents ‘escapes’ outside the catchment (row F). This would
be represented by shopping trips made to centres such as Maroochydore, for example,
to access particular goods and services or shopping experiences not present locally.
The implication is that only around 56% of locally generated retail demand is retained
locally within the catchment in 2022 (row G). This is a particularly low retention rate (that
is, an unusually high level of demand escapes outside the catchment) and does not
reflect the centre hierarchy present in Noosa Shire and the designation of the NBC as a
Major Regional Activity Centre serving a sub-regional function with only Maroochydore
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36 providing higher-order shopping. The same conclusion was made in the Noosa Shire Retail Plan. Table 8 then examines the situation over the period 2022 to 2035 by applying the same methodology. Two outcomes are highlighted: 1. Due to population growth within the catchment, the demand for traditional retail floorspace by catchment residents will increase from 152,500 sqm in 2022 to 167,700 sqm in 2035 (row B). This represents an additional 15,200 sqm just to cater to the larger population base. Over just the period 2022 to 2027 the increased population generates an addition 7,800 sqm of new retail floorspace demand. 2. If no new floorspace is constructed (and holding the contribution from visitors constant) the proportion of retained demand for traditional retail floorspace by catchment residents would decline from 56% in 2022 to 51% in 2035. The lower part of Table 8 (rows H to K) examines existing and future need for traditional retail floorspace by adopting a retention rate of 70%. This is consistent with the Noosa Shire Retail Plan and reflects the role that retailing within the NBC should play given the designation in ShapingSEQ. Note that a 70% retention rate still allows for $3 in every $10 of traditional shopping to be directed outside the catchment, which is a sizeable amount given the distances involved in such travel and the fact that the local centre hierarchy provides for all levels of centres other than regional shopping (which is provided at Maroochydore). The analysis also incorporates retail floorspace demand from visitors travelling into the catchment (tourists, non-resident workers, etc). This contribution is assumed to grow in line with trends in tourist numbers over the period 2010 to 2019, which is +2.5% pa. The analysis establishes that there is a current undersupply of 21,200 sqm of traditional retail floorspace in 2022 compared to a situation in which retention rates were 70% as supported by the designation of NBC as a Major Regional Activity Centre in ShapingSEQ. By 2027 (when Noosa Civic Village would be operational) the undersupply would increase to 30,450 sqm and then widen further to 42,850 sqm by 2035. In summary, the analysis shown in Table 8 demonstrates that growth in the catchment residential population and visitor numbers, combined with local services better reflecting the role of NBC as a Major Regional Activity Centre, will generate significant demand for new floorspace. The analysis supports the conclusion that the current provision of retail floorspace serving residents and visitors is inadequate given the intended strategic roles of centres within Noosa Shire, and the designation of the NBC. Overall, the analysis presented in Table 8 provides strong justification on need grounds for the proposed 13,700 sqm of traditional retail floorspace at Noosa Civic Village by 2027, especially as this is within the existing controls set out in Noosa Plan 2020. In fact, the analysis identifies potential for further retail expansions to occur elsewhere in the catchment. Noosa Village Mixed Use Development – Economic Impact Statement for Development Application Deep End Services
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Table 8—Analysis Year Reference 2022 2027 2030 2035
of traditional retail Catchment area population - persons A 95,334 100,210 102,185 104,815
floorspace provision
Demand for traditional retail floorspace
and need
Average retail demand (@ 1.6 sqm/cap) - sqm B = A x 1.6 152,500 160,300 163,500 167,700
Source: Deep End Existing traditional retail floorspace provision
Services Existing supply - sqm C (Table 7) 114,150 114,150 114,150 114,150
Floorspace supported by visitors - sqm D = C x 25% 85,600 85,600 85,600 85,600
Existing supply supported by catchment - sqm E=C-D 28,550 28,550 28,550 28,550
Retail floorspace not retained locally - sqm F=B-E 66,900 74,700 77,900 82,100
Retention rate - % G = (B - F) / B 56% 53% 52% 51%
Need analysis to reflect ShapingSEQ designation
Floorspace supported by catchment - sqm H = B x 70% 106,800 112,200 114,500 117,400
Floorspace demand by visitors - sqm I = 2.5% pa 28,550 32,400 34,900 39,600
Total supportable provision - sqm J=H+I 135,350 144,600 149,400 157,000
Floorspace provision balance (undersupply) - sqm K=J-C -21,200 -30,450 -35,250 -42,850
Supermarket floorspace provision analysis
A similar provision rate approach can be used to examine the need for additional
supermarket floorspace to serve the catchment population and visitors to the catchment
and is presented in Table 9.
In this instance, the demand for supermarket floorspace generated by the residential
population is compared against current supermarket floorspace provision within the
catchment after allowing for incoming demand from tourists and other visitors.
As highlighted in Section 5.3, the visitor contribution to grocery shopping demand is
estimated at 14%; however, to be conservative a figure of 10% is adopted in this analysis,
to reflect the likely direction of a larger share of grocery shopping to smaller food
retailers rather than supermarkets.
The analysis presented in Table 9 demonstrates that a total of 30,950 sqm of
supermarket floorspace is located within the catchment, of which an estimated
27,900 sqm is supported by catchment residents (ie 90%).
When compared against the catchment population, this indicates a current supermarket
floorspace provision rate of 0.293 sqm/cap, which is:
• 19% below the average provision of 0.362 sqm/cap across the Sunshine Coast;
• 26% below the average of 0.394 sqm/cap in Queensland; and
• 28% below the average of 0.405 sqm/cap for non-metropolitan Queensland.
On any of these comparisons the catchment is clearly under-supplied with supermarket
floorspace, and with ongoing population growth the average provision rate will continue
to decline, reaching as low as 0.266 sqm/cap by 2035 if no new supermarket floorspace
is built.
The extent of undersupply of supermarket floorspace has been modelled in Table 9 by
comparing existing provision against the supermarket demand if the Queensland average
provision rate of 0.394 sqm per capita is applied to the catchment population.
These calculations show that there is an existing under-provision of 9,600 sqm of
supermarket floorspace serving the catchment, with the under-provision widening to
11,500 sqm by 2026 and reaching 13,500 sqm by 2035.
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The analysis shows that new supermarkets should be facilitated within the catchment,
with the NBC an appropriate location for a new full-line supermarket given its role in the
centres hierarchy as defined in ShapingSEQ.
The analysis demonstrates that there will be opportunities for other new or expanded
supermarkets to open elsewhere within the catchment to serve the expected growth in
local demand.
Table 9—Analysis Year 2022 2027 2030 2035
of supermarket Catchment area population - persons 95,334 100,210 102,185 104,815
floorspace provision
Existing supermarket floorspace supply - sqm 30,950 30,950 30,950 30,950
and needs
Existing floorspace supported by catchment – sqm (@ 90%) 27,900 27,900 27,900 27,900
Source: Deep End Floorspace provision rate per person (sqm/cap) 0.293 0.278 0.273 0.266
Services Floorspace demand at Queensland provision rate (0.394 sqm/cap) - sqm 37,500 39,400 40,200 41,300
Under(-)/over(+) supply - sqm -9,600 -11,500 -12,300 -13,400
5.6 Summary The need analysis presented in this section can be summarised as follows:
• Retail provision within the NBC, dominated by the Noosa Civic Shopping Centre,
serves a relatively wide catchment that extends across Noosa Shire and into the
regional hinterland, with the extent of this catchment informed by analysis of
visitation to Noosa Civic using mobile geolocation data.
• The catchment has continued to experience population growth even during the
COVID pandemic, and growth is forecast to continue mainly through infill
development and high-density housing close to activity centres.
• Tourism makes a significant contribution to local activity levels, in terms of the
numbers of visitors and their spending on retail and other goods and services.
• Demand for new traditional retail floorspace will come from greater retention of
demand from residents to reflect the intended strategic role of the NBC in the
regional centres hierarchy, as well as from increases in population and visitor
numbers.
• The analysis in this report provides strong support for development of 13,700 sqm of
traditional retail floorspace at Noosa Civic Village, especially as this is consistent with
allowable floorspace levels across the Retail and VMU precincts and is supported by
analysis undertaken on behalf of Noosa Shire Council. The proposed new floorspace
represents less than 45% of the potential for additional traditional retail floorspace
across the catchment by 2027.
• The provision of supermarket floorspace is currently well below the typical average
provision rate experienced throughout Queensland, with an opportunity to increase
current supply by nearly 10,000 sqm to reflect typical average provision rates, and
with further opportunities in the future to expand supermarket provision.
Overall, there is strong justification for the proposed Noosa Civic Village on need
grounds, including for a new full-line supermarket.
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Trading effects
6.1 Introduction This Chapter examines the potential competitive trading effects on other centres that
may arise from the proposed Noosa Civic Village development once operational.
These trading effects would occur as a result of the redistribution of spending from
existing centres to the new Noosa Civic Village development once it opens, and are
relevant only insofar as they lead to significant sales impacts such that businesses close
and/or the performance of competing centres leads to a loss of services for the local
community. In the absence of any significant diminution in the role and performance of
existing centres, competitive impacts are not usually a legitimate basis for withholding
planning approval.
Trading effects are examined by comparing the sales achieved at competing centres in
2027 following construction of Noosa Civic Village against existing (2022) estimates of
sales performance, and against the sales that would otherwise have been achieved in
2027 in the absence of the proposed development.
Effects are calculated in dollar terms and as a percentage impact, noting that the
significance of any loss in sales is also related to the underlying performance of each
centres. For example, centres that already achieve very high sales averages (ie can be
considered ‘over-trading’) are able to withstand a larger loss of sales without the risk of
business closure.
Typically, centre-level impacts up to a 10-15% loss of sales are considered to be within the
bounds of normal competition, while impacts greater than 15% warrant further attention
as to their effect on the performance of the centre in question, recognising – as stated
above – that high-trading centres can withstand larger impacts than those achieving
‘standard’ sales performance.
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6.2 Approach The approach used to analyse competitive trading effects can be summarised as follows:
1. The sales performance of the proposed Noosa Civic Village development, once it is
trading in 2027, has been forecast with respect to factors such as:
a. Typical industry averages
b. Sales evidence from the existing Noosa Civic component of the NBC
c. Market share expectations
d. Contributions from visitors, especially due to the introduction of new elements
such as cinemas and entertainment venues
e. The competitive retail environment.
2. The performance of existing centres has been estimated for 2022, and then projected
forwards to 2027 broadly in line with market growth over that period.
3. The extent to which the sales achieved at Noosa Civic Village would be redistributed
away from individual competing centres is then modelled separately by broad retail
category before being aggregated at the centre level. A range of factors are used in
determining these effects, including competitive relevance, the role and relative
market shares achieved by each centre, proximity, and other factors likely to affect
the extent to which any shopping trips may be switched from one location to another.
Some of these specific factors that affect the competitive impacts on individual
centres include the following:
a. The new supermarket is assumed to be a full-line store operated by one of the
major national brands. Given normal shopping patterns, potential impacts would
be on the closest nearby alternatives (ie the Woolworths stores at Noosa Civic
and Noosaville or the Coles stores at Noosa Junction or Peregian Springs). Often
there is a degree of switching of shopping trips within a brand group if the new
store is more convenient – this may occur, for example, if Coles were secured for
the supermarket operator.
b. Impacts from new food and drink outlets would be concentrated on other centres
that offer this role, such as Noosaville, Noosa Heads, and Noosa Junction, and to
a much lesser degree coastal centres further away.
c. Impacts from food specialty stores and other convenience-based store types
(newsagents, chemists) would fall largely on nearby centres and would mirror the
effects of the new supermarket.
d. Impacts from non-food specialty retailers and lifestyle retailing would be on the
larger centres within the catchment that provide depth in those categories, such
as Noosa Civic, Noosa Heads, and to some degree Noosa Junction and Coolum
Beach. However, much of this impact would be on larger centres outside the
catchment such as at Maroochydore and even metropolitan Brisbane, reflecting
the need to travel outside the region to access higher-order comparison shopping
in non-food categories.
4. Impacts are then calculated as the decline in sales and a percentage of sales
otherwise achieved in 2027, and as the overall effect on sales compared to current
estimates for 2022.
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6.3 Noosa Civic The proposed Noosa Civic Village is forecast to achieve total sales of approximately
Village sales $120.3m in 2027 during its first full year of operation, as summarised in Table 10.
This forecast is based on the following:
• The supermarket operator is assumed to be a full-line national brand;
• One of the mini major tenancies is likely to be a food retailer and the other would be
in a leisure or general retail category;
• Of the remaining food specialties, approximately 1,000 sqm would be associated
with food and drink outlets and other food retail types, with the remainder in non-
food and retail services; and
• The centre would trade at healthy levels across the supermarket, mini-majors and
specialty categories, reflecting the existing strong position of Noosa Civic, the
additional attraction of catchment residents and visitors to the entertainment
precinct, and the introduction of a local worker and resident population within the
NBC precinct.
It is important to appreciate that the $120.3m in sales at Noosa Civic Village does not
represent the net addition to total sales within the NBC (ie incorporating Noosa Civic and
the Showroom precinct), as some redistribution of spending from the existing Noosa
Civic to Noosa Civic Village will occur. These changes in sales at the existing components
of the NBC are examined as trading impacts in section 6.4.
Table 10—Noosa Use GFA (sqm) Average sales Total sales
Civic Village Supermarket 3,474 $12,500 $43.4
forecast sales
Mini majors 2,506 $6,240 $15.6
Source: Buchan; Other shops 7,720 $7,930 $61.2
Deep End Services Total 13,700 $8,780 $120.3
After 2027, sales growth will occur generally proportionately with growth in total
catchment spending as described in section 5.2 (refer Table 5), possibly with slightly
higher-than-average sales growth at Noosa Civic Village given the typical maturation
profile for a development such as this.
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6.4 Centre Existing sales performance for those centres located within the catchment are
impacts summarised in Table 11, based on a variety of inputs including:
• Information provided by Stockwell
• Industry reports including benchmark averages publications
• Industry knowledge obtained from individual clients
• Observations from field visits
• Consultant experience and judgement.
In total, the identified centres within the catchment generated total estimated retail sales
of $1.29bn in 2022. The top 5 centres in terms of total sales are:
1. Noosaville (incorporating various components extending from Gibson Road to
Gympie Terrace)
2. Noosa Civic and other components within the NBC
3. Noosa Junction
4. Noosa Heads
5. NBC surrounds, which mainly comprises LFR traders within industrial precincts.
Overall, sales performance for these centres is estimated at $8,422 per sqm, which is a
very healthy average for the retail sector, and well above the typical range of around
$6,000-$7,500/sqm usually seen across internal and street-based activity centres.
Centres that are shown with very high average sales levels are those dominated by
supermarkets, which on average are thought to be trading in excess of $15,000/sqm,
reflecting the local under-supply of supermarket floorspace.
Table 11— Centre Floorspace (sqm) Average sales ($/sqm) Total sales ($m)
Catchment centres Noosa Civic SC & Showroom 23,365 $7,538 $176.1
retail sales 2022
NBC surrounds incl industrial 20,050 $6,135 $123.0
Source: Deep End Noosaville 25,095 $7,562 $189.8
Services Noosa Junction 18,595 $9,309 $173.1
Noosa Heads 12,705 $11,026 $140.1
Webya Rd 2,240 $13,268 $29.7
Hilton Terrace 530 $6,000 $3.2
Tewantin TC 5,540 $9,664 $53.5
Noosa Outlook Shopping Centre 1,370 $8,909 $12.2
Noosa Bushlands 380 $8,974 $3.4
Quamby Place SC 1,165 $8,217 $9.6
Sunshine Beach Shops 2,310 $8,394 $19.4
Sunrise SC 440 $6,318 $2.8
Peregian Beach 7,110 $7,312 $52.0
Peregian Springs SC 3,790 $14,431 $54.7
Coolum Village SC 3,730 $13,220 $49.3
Coolum Beach strip 6,240 $6,207 $38.7
Coolum Park SC 3,330 $15,797 $52.6
Mt Coolum SC 1,515 $9,493 $14.4
Eumundi TC 3,280 $5,107 $16.8
Pomona TC 4,090 $7,516 $30.7
Cooroy TC 6,625 $7,181 $47.6
Total 153,495 $8,422 $1,292.7
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The modelled impacts arising from the development of Noosa Civic Village in 2027 are
shown in Table 12. Note that the information in the table has been simplified by only
including the main centres likely to experience any competitive impact following
development of Noosa Civic Village.
As noted in section 6.2, this analysis commences by forecasting sales at existing centres
in 2027 in the absence of Noosa Civic Village: this is termed the ‘Base case’. These
forecasts have been calculated by assuming that centre sales grow in line with changes in
the market size, but with a discount applied to reflect likely increases in escape spending
as identified in section 5.5.
Sales forecasts with the inclusion of Noosa Civic Village in 2027 are then modelled by
incorporating reductions in sales at each centre as a result of the likely redistribution
effects once Noosa Civic Village is operational.
Impacts are identified in nominal terms as the difference between Base Case sales in
2027 and the sale that would result with the inclusion of the proposed development.
These impacts are also expressed as percentages, both against the Base Case (2027) and
against current centre sales.
Table 12—Trading Centre Sales 2022 Sales 2027 - Sales 2027 - Impact $ Impact % Impact %
impacts Base Case with NCV in 2027 (cf 2027) (cf 2022)
Noosa Civic SC & Showroom $176.1 $204.9 $181.2 -$23.6 -11.5% +2.9%
Source: Deep End Noosaville $189.8 $219.9 $203.4 -$16.4 -7.5% +7.2%
Services
Noosa Junction $173.1 $204.7 $188.8 -$15.9 -7.8% +9.1%
Note: NCV – Noosa
Civic Village Noosa Heads $140.1 $168.1 $154.9 -$13.3 -7.9% +10.6%
Weyba Rd $29.7 $34.9 $32.3 -$2.6 -7.5% +8.6%
Tewantin TC $53.5 $63.1 $58.7 -$4.4 -6.9% +9.7%
Other centres in catchment $530.3 $617.4 $599.5 -$17.9 -2.9% +13.0%
All centres in catchment $1,292.7 $1,513.0 $1,418.9 -$94.1 -6.2% +9.8%
Centres outside catchment -$26.2
Total redistributed sales -$120.3
The assessment of trading impacts presented above shows that the centres experiencing
the greatest loss of sales are expected to be those that either have an overlapping offer,
are nearby and contain supermarkets and other essential retail uses, or have an extensive
food dining and entertainment role.
In dollar terms the largest impacts are expected to be on:
• The existing components of the Noosa Civic Shopping Centre, which will experience
a decline in sales at the existing Woolworths because of competition from a second
supermarket, and with impacts on other stores in overlapping categories.
• Noosaville, which is a nearby centre with a strong recently refurbished supermarket,
essential retail and a dining offer.
• Noosa Junction, which has an existing Coles, a range of general retailers and some
entertainment-related businesses that would experience added competition.
• Noosa Heads, which would be affected mainly due to new dining opportunities and
partly because of new non-food shops in leisure and apparel categories.
• Tewantin, which would be affected mainly due to the additional supermarket offer.
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• Weyba Road, where the modelling indicates a potential impact on the existing ALDI
(which is understood to trade well above average and is the only ALDI in the region).
Beyond these centres listed above, small changes in sales are likely to occur at a wide
range of centres across the catchment. In addition, centres outside the catchment are
expected to experience a loss of sales of $26.2m, representing a little more than 20% of
the total effect across the centre hierarchy.
The impacted centres outside the catchment would include regional shopping facilities in
Maroochydore to the south, or centres such as Gympie in the regional hinterland to the
north. The redistribution of shopping from these centres to the NBC is consistent with the
expectation that a greater share of retail demand is retained within the catchment (refer
section 5.5).
In percentage terms the largest impact is on the existing components of Noosa Civic,
which are expected to see a 11.5% decline in sales. Much of this effect is associated with
direct store-on-store competition between the two supermarkets, although impacts will
occur across categories depending on the exact nature of new retail tenants. Very little
impact on the Showroom precinct is expected.
The total net effect across the NBC would be an increase in sales from $204.9m (Base
Case in the absence of Noosa Civic Village) to $301.5m if the proposed development
proceeds – this represents a net increase in sales of $96.6m or a 47% increase in sales.
Other than at Noosa Civic, the impacts on other nearby centres most affected by the
project are around -7% to -8% in percentage terms. As noted above, this is well within the
typical variation in retail sales on an annual basis, and is not expected to lead to any major
change in retail tenants at these centres, particularly as these centres are generally
performing well with high average sales and low vacancies.
For other centres within the catchment not listed, the impacts average just 2.8% in
percentage terms.
Importantly, all of the modelled centres are expected to experience growth in sales
performance when compared against current estimated sales for 2022, with any
competitive effect outweighed by growth in the retail spending market in the intervening
period.
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6.5 Summary With respect to competitive impacts the key planning issue is whether the decline in
sales would lead to any loss of centre role or performance such that the community
experiences a loss of local services.
Given the expected competitive effects on other centres in the region, the modelling
shown in this Chapter indicates that no centres will experience a significant loss of sales
such that major anchor stores would close or that the role of the centre would be lost.
In most cases the impacts would result in lower sales expectations for stores that would
otherwise be trading well above the typical average. For example, the modelling
underpinning the impact assessment implies that supermarkets in Noosa currently over-
perform compared to industry benchmarks due to the relative undersupply in
supermarket floorspace. A decline in sales because of the introduction of a new
supermarket at Noosa Civic Village would not put these stores at risk.
In some cases the impacts would simply redistribute sales from one store to another
within an operator group. This would happen, for example, if a Coles supermarket were
to be secured, in which case there could be some switching of shopping trips away from
the existing Coles supermarket at Noosa Junction. In such instances the existing stores
operated by each brand would continue to trade from the established stores, even if the
performance of these stores would be somewhat reduced.
Moreover, the analysis shows that centres would be experiencing large increases in sales
in the next four years leading up to the development, so that once the impacts occur the
resulting sales performance is still well above current levels. Further market growth
would then also help to normalise sales performance over subsequent years.
Overall, the conclusion to be drawn is that the proposed additional retail floorspace will
generate some competitive effect, but that this will occur within a larger market at the
time, and the effects would not lead to any diminution in the role or offer available at
competing centres.
The potential adverse consequences arising from added competition are therefore
minimal when set against the significant positive effects that are expected to be
generated as a result of the development, as discussed below in Chapter 7.
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Economic outcomes
7.1 Introduction This section considers the resultant economic outcomes arising from the proposed
construction and operation of Noosa Civic Village, including consideration of the
following:
• Capital investment and resulting employment during the construction period
• Ongoing employment generation
• Consumer benefits such as additional shopping choice, improved convenience, price
competition, reduced commute to work, and improved variety and affordability of
residential accommodation.
• Other effects including positive externalities arising for example from reduced travel.
Economic disbenefits have also been considered, particularly in terms of any adverse
consequences from competition effects; although, as noted in Chapter 6, the
development is not expected to lead to any substantial trading impacts on existing
centres.
7.2 Economic Construction period effects
benefits
Significant employment will be generated during construction of the proposed Noosa
Civic Village, which is expected to commence in 2024 and be completed in 2026, over an
18-month timeframe.
Table 13 presents an estimate of the capital investment and construction-related
employment associated with construction of Noosa Civic Village, based on information
provided by Stockwell which indicates a total construction cost of $145m.
Applying typical labour cost ratios, the indicative construction cost would require a
labour input of almost 400 full-time equivalent jobs (FTE) over the life of the VMU
project, or an average of 255 jobs per year throughout the construction phase.
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Approximately another 700 indirect FTE jobs would be created in the wider economy
during the 18-month construction period, a share of which would be retained locally
through supply contracts, expenditures and wages, etc.
Table 13— Item Measure
Construction Estimated construction cost $145m
employment – VMU
Labour component 25%
precinct
Labour cost $36m
Source: Deep End Average construction wage (FTE) $95,000
Services; Stockwell Direct employment (FTE – total job years) 380
Indirect employment (FTE – job years) 700
Construction period (yrs) 1.5
Direct employment (FTE – jobs per year) 255
Ongoing effects
Ongoing impacts from development of Noosa Civic Village would include the creation of
employment through additional economic activity, as well as other effects that are less
easy to measure, such as added choice and convenience for local shoppers, improved
housing diversity and affordability, and improved commute times to access jobs.
Employment
Estimates of employment generation associated with the proposed uses are presented in
Table 14, based on applying broad staffing benchmarks for each use, each of which is
based on employment to floorspace ratios or other measures drawn from experience
with facility developers.
The analysis shows that development of Noosa Civic Village would generate
approximately 525 employment positions within the site, equivalent to nearly 400 full-
time equivalent (FTE) jobs once the use of causal and part-time positions is considered.
Another 600 or so jobs would be generated indirectly through production linkages and
consumption of wages income, much of which would be likely to involve local
employment generation within Noosa Shire.
Overall, around 1,000 FTE jobs would be generated as a result of the proposed
development, adding significantly to the local workforce within the NBC.
Table 14—NBC Precinct/use Positions Direct FTE jobs Indirect FTE jobs Total jobs
Masterplan ongoing Supermarket 130 100 125 225
employment
Other shops 235 165 205 370
Total retail 365 265 330 595
Source: Stockwell;
Deep End Services; Entertainment (cinema, arcade) 45 25 35 60
ABS Business premises 110 100 235 335
Residential 5 5 10 15
Total Noosa Civic Village 525 395 610 1,000
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Consumer benefits
Delivery of the proposed Noosa Civic Village has potential to generate consumer benefits
associated with the following factors:
• An improvement in the choice and availability of retail, entertainment and other
proposed uses on offer to the local residential base and visitors to the region. The
added choice would be across a range of sectors including supermarkets and grocery
shopping, lifestyle retail (which includes shops selling sports and recreational
equipment, homewares, sports fashion, etc) and other non-food sectors, and in the
entertainment and dining sector with the introduction of a cinema centre and the
inclusion of food and drink tenancies.
• Added convenience for people wishing to obtain goods that might otherwise only be
available with more distant trips to Maroochydore, or for those wishing to shop at the
Coles supermarket while on a shopping trip to the only sub-regional shopping facility
in Noosa.
• An opportunity for price competition generated by having a wider range of
competing outlets within the one centre, which would occur with the introduction of
an additional supermarket operator within a centre that currently only houses
Woolworths. The price competition effect is likely to be greater in a market such as
Noosa where the supply of supermarkets is relatively low, and current established
businesses are generally achieving much higher-than-average sales.
• Provision of a wider range of diversified housing in higher density formats, including
build-to-rent product, that would be suitable for a range of market segments
including downsizers, key workers, young professionals and entrants to the local
housing market.
• Introduction of local employment opportunities at the proposed offices and flexible
workspaces on upper levels, leading to consumer benefits for the local workforce as
people are able to secure local professional and scientific jobs rather than having to
travel into Maroochydore or even commute to Brisbane.
• Opportunities for local business development by providing a new modern office
offer including flexible co-working spaces which are particularly attractive for start-
ups and other small businesses wishing to secure office tenancies.
• Improvements in local amenity for people living in, working in and visiting the wider
NBC precinct, due to new retail, entertainment, food dining and business services.
• A wider range of visitor-oriented services and amenity with the inclusion of cinema,
entertainment and night-time activities, thereby helping to cater to Noosa’s tourism
and events economy.
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Other
Other identifiable benefits resulting from the proposed development include:
• Less need for shopping trips to more distant shopping facilities, including those
located beyond the catchment (such as Maroochydore), leading to positive
externality benefits arising from a reduction in travel and an associated reduction in
vehicle emissions.
• Similar externality benefits such as vehicle emission reductions would be created
through the provision of a wider array of local employment opportunities across a
wide range of professional and scientific industry sectors.
• A widening of the retail offer for both residents and tourists, with the inclusion of a
new shopping facility that may help to stimulate an increase in retail shopping by
tourist visitors.
• The introduction of a range of uses that are in accordance with the policy aspirations
for the NBC, including the co-location of office and residential uses that will help to
generate a day time and night time population to support the proposed
entertainment, shopping and dining uses.
In summary, the proposed uses to be developed within the NBC would generate a range
of important measurable and non-measurable positive outcomes for Noosa Shire and for
the wider region.
7.3 Economic Economic disbenefits would be a relevant factor if the proposed development would lead
disbenefits to significant trading effects such that the proposed development would need to ‘make
good’ these competitive impacts.
However, as shown by the analysis presented in section 5.5 and in Chapter 6, the
proposed development responds to an existing and growing need for additional retail
floorspace, is therefore supportable in market terms, and would not lead to any
significant adverse impacts on other existing centres.
Economic disbenefits would also be generated if the development were to lead to other
adverse impacts, such as increased road congestion that may affect acceptable
performance on the surrounding road network. However, the traffic analysis undertaken
for the proposed development by SLR Consulting demonstrates that traffic performance
on surrounding streets and proposed access roads would be within acceptable
performance thresholds following the development.
Overall, any minor disbenefits are significantly outweighed by the positive economic
outcomes presented in section 7.2.
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7.4 Summary In summary, the economic outcome arising from the proposed development of Noosa
Civic Village will be positive, consisting of:
• The provision of additional retail floorspace to serve the shopping needs of people
living within the region and visitors.
• Significant economic activity as new components are constructed, including nearly
400 direct jobs created over the life of the construction project.
• An estimated 525 new employment positions created within the NBC, or nearly 400
jobs in FTE terms, and with another 600 or so jobs created indirectly in the wider
economy.
• A wide range of consumer benefits including additional choice and convenience,
greater price competition, a wider retail offer, improved amenity for residents,
workers and visitors, new diverse and affordable housing opportunities, and the
creation of local employment opportunities.
• Community benefits generated by reduced travel and lower emissions as people are
not required to travel to access shopping opportunities.
• Business benefits from the provision of new offices and co-working spaces within an
amenity-rich environment.
• Tourism benefits with the provision of new entertainment and dining options catering
to Noosa’s visitor and events economy.
• Catalysing development within the NBC so that it is able to fulfil its role as a vibrant
business and employment centre, consistent with policy aims contained in Noosa
Plan 2020.
Against these positive outcomes, the modelling presented in Chapter 6 shows that the
competitive trading effect on other centres would not adversely affect the role and
performance of those centres. The project would therefore deliver a significant net
economic benefit to the community.
Noosa Village Mixed Use Development – Economic Impact Statement for Development Application Deep End Services
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