Appendix F- Economic Impact Assessment · MCU23/0078

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Table 8—Analysis        Year                                                      Reference                  2022       2027      2030         2035
of traditional retail   Catchment area population - persons                       A                       95,334      100,210   102,185    104,815
floorspace provision
                        Demand for traditional retail floorspace
and need
                        Average retail demand (@ 1.6 sqm/cap) - sqm               B = A x 1.6            152,500      160,300   163,500    167,700
Source: Deep End        Existing traditional retail floorspace provision
Services                Existing supply - sqm                                     C (Table 7)            114,150      114,150   114,150    114,150
                        Floorspace supported by visitors - sqm                    D = C x 25%             85,600       85,600    85,600      85,600
                        Existing supply supported by catchment - sqm              E=C-D                   28,550       28,550    28,550      28,550
                        Retail floorspace not retained locally - sqm              F=B-E                   66,900       74,700    77,900      82,100
                        Retention rate - %                                        G = (B - F) / B            56%         53%       52%          51%
                        Need analysis to reflect ShapingSEQ designation
                        Floorspace supported by catchment - sqm                   H = B x 70%            106,800      112,200   114,500    117,400
                        Floorspace demand by visitors - sqm                       I = 2.5% pa             28,550       32,400    34,900      39,600
                        Total supportable provision - sqm                         J=H+I                  135,350      144,600   149,400    157,000
                        Floorspace provision balance (undersupply) - sqm          K=J-C                   -21,200     -30,450   -35,250     -42,850


                        Supermarket floorspace provision analysis
                        A similar provision rate approach can be used to examine the need for additional
                        supermarket floorspace to serve the catchment population and visitors to the catchment
                        and is presented in Table 9.
                        In this instance, the demand for supermarket floorspace generated by the residential
                        population is compared against current supermarket floorspace provision within the
                        catchment after allowing for incoming demand from tourists and other visitors.
                        As highlighted in Section 5.3, the visitor contribution to grocery shopping demand is
                        estimated at 14%; however, to be conservative a figure of 10% is adopted in this analysis,
                        to reflect the likely direction of a larger share of grocery shopping to smaller food
                        retailers rather than supermarkets.
                        The analysis presented in Table 9 demonstrates that a total of 30,950 sqm of
                        supermarket floorspace is located within the catchment, of which an estimated
                        27,900 sqm is supported by catchment residents (ie 90%).
                        When compared against the catchment population, this indicates a current supermarket
                        floorspace provision rate of 0.293 sqm/cap, which is:
                        •      19% below the average provision of 0.362 sqm/cap across the Sunshine Coast;
                        •      26% below the average of 0.394 sqm/cap in Queensland; and
                        •      28% below the average of 0.405 sqm/cap for non-metropolitan Queensland.

                        On any of these comparisons the catchment is clearly under-supplied with supermarket
                        floorspace, and with ongoing population growth the average provision rate will continue
                        to decline, reaching as low as 0.266 sqm/cap by 2035 if no new supermarket floorspace
                        is built.

                        The extent of undersupply of supermarket floorspace has been modelled in Table 9 by
                        comparing existing provision against the supermarket demand if the Queensland average
                        provision rate of 0.394 sqm per capita is applied to the catchment population.
                        These calculations show that there is an existing under-provision of 9,600 sqm of
                        supermarket floorspace serving the catchment, with the under-provision widening to
                        11,500 sqm by 2026 and reaching 13,500 sqm by 2035.
                        Noosa Village Mixed Use Development – Economic Impact Statement for Development Application                  Deep End Services