Appendix F- Economic Impact Assessment · MCU23/0078

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6.2 Approach   The approach used to analyse competitive trading effects can be summarised as follows:
               1. The sales performance of the proposed Noosa Civic Village development, once it is
                  trading in 2027, has been forecast with respect to factors such as:
                  a. Typical industry averages
                  b. Sales evidence from the existing Noosa Civic component of the NBC
                  c. Market share expectations
                  d. Contributions from visitors, especially due to the introduction of new elements
                      such as cinemas and entertainment venues
                  e. The competitive retail environment.
               2. The performance of existing centres has been estimated for 2022, and then projected
                  forwards to 2027 broadly in line with market growth over that period.
               3. The extent to which the sales achieved at Noosa Civic Village would be redistributed
                  away from individual competing centres is then modelled separately by broad retail
                  category before being aggregated at the centre level. A range of factors are used in
                  determining these effects, including competitive relevance, the role and relative
                  market shares achieved by each centre, proximity, and other factors likely to affect
                  the extent to which any shopping trips may be switched from one location to another.
                  Some of these specific factors that affect the competitive impacts on individual
                  centres include the following:
                  a. The new supermarket is assumed to be a full-line store operated by one of the
                      major national brands. Given normal shopping patterns, potential impacts would
                      be on the closest nearby alternatives (ie the Woolworths stores at Noosa Civic
                      and Noosaville or the Coles stores at Noosa Junction or Peregian Springs). Often
                      there is a degree of switching of shopping trips within a brand group if the new
                      store is more convenient – this may occur, for example, if Coles were secured for
                      the supermarket operator.
                  b. Impacts from new food and drink outlets would be concentrated on other centres
                      that offer this role, such as Noosaville, Noosa Heads, and Noosa Junction, and to
                      a much lesser degree coastal centres further away.
                  c. Impacts from food specialty stores and other convenience-based store types
                      (newsagents, chemists) would fall largely on nearby centres and would mirror the
                      effects of the new supermarket.
                  d. Impacts from non-food specialty retailers and lifestyle retailing would be on the
                      larger centres within the catchment that provide depth in those categories, such
                      as Noosa Civic, Noosa Heads, and to some degree Noosa Junction and Coolum
                      Beach. However, much of this impact would be on larger centres outside the
                      catchment such as at Maroochydore and even metropolitan Brisbane, reflecting
                      the need to travel outside the region to access higher-order comparison shopping
                      in non-food categories.
               4. Impacts are then calculated as the decline in sales and a percentage of sales
                  otherwise achieved in 2027, and as the overall effect on sales compared to current
                  estimates for 2022.




               Noosa Village Mixed Use Development – Economic Impact Statement for Development Application   Deep End Services