Appendix F- Economic Impact Assessment · MCU23/0078

                                                                                                                                                    43




                    The modelled impacts arising from the development of Noosa Civic Village in 2027 are
                    shown in Table 12. Note that the information in the table has been simplified by only
                    including the main centres likely to experience any competitive impact following
                    development of Noosa Civic Village.

                    As noted in section 6.2, this analysis commences by forecasting sales at existing centres
                    in 2027 in the absence of Noosa Civic Village: this is termed the ‘Base case’. These
                    forecasts have been calculated by assuming that centre sales grow in line with changes in
                    the market size, but with a discount applied to reflect likely increases in escape spending
                    as identified in section 5.5.

                    Sales forecasts with the inclusion of Noosa Civic Village in 2027 are then modelled by
                    incorporating reductions in sales at each centre as a result of the likely redistribution
                    effects once Noosa Civic Village is operational.
                    Impacts are identified in nominal terms as the difference between Base Case sales in
                    2027 and the sale that would result with the inclusion of the proposed development.
                    These impacts are also expressed as percentages, both against the Base Case (2027) and
                    against current centre sales.

Table 12—Trading    Centre                               Sales 2022     Sales 2027 -     Sales 2027 -        Impact $      Impact %          Impact %
impacts                                                                  Base Case         with NCV            in 2027      (cf 2027)         (cf 2022)
                    Noosa Civic SC & Showroom                 $176.1          $204.9           $181.2             -$23.6     -11.5%              +2.9%
Source: Deep End    Noosaville                                $189.8          $219.9           $203.4             -$16.4       -7.5%             +7.2%
Services
                    Noosa Junction                            $173.1          $204.7           $188.8             -$15.9       -7.8%             +9.1%
Note: NCV – Noosa
Civic Village       Noosa Heads                               $140.1          $168.1           $154.9             -$13.3       -7.9%           +10.6%
                    Weyba Rd                                   $29.7            $34.9           $32.3              -$2.6       -7.5%             +8.6%
                    Tewantin TC                                $53.5            $63.1           $58.7              -$4.4       -6.9%             +9.7%
                    Other centres in catchment                $530.3          $617.4           $599.5             -$17.9       -2.9%           +13.0%
                    All centres in catchment               $1,292.7         $1,513.0         $1,418.9             -$94.1       -6.2%             +9.8%
                    Centres outside catchment                                                                     -$26.2
                    Total redistributed sales                                                                 -$120.3


                    The assessment of trading impacts presented above shows that the centres experiencing
                    the greatest loss of sales are expected to be those that either have an overlapping offer,
                    are nearby and contain supermarkets and other essential retail uses, or have an extensive
                    food dining and entertainment role.

                    In dollar terms the largest impacts are expected to be on:
                    •    The existing components of the Noosa Civic Shopping Centre, which will experience
                         a decline in sales at the existing Woolworths because of competition from a second
                         supermarket, and with impacts on other stores in overlapping categories.
                    •    Noosaville, which is a nearby centre with a strong recently refurbished supermarket,
                         essential retail and a dining offer.
                    •    Noosa Junction, which has an existing Coles, a range of general retailers and some
                         entertainment-related businesses that would experience added competition.
                    •    Noosa Heads, which would be affected mainly due to new dining opportunities and
                         partly because of new non-food shops in leisure and apparel categories.
                    •    Tewantin, which would be affected mainly due to the additional supermarket offer.


                    Noosa Village Mixed Use Development – Economic Impact Statement for Development Application                         Deep End Services