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ECONOMIC REPORT
PROPOSED SERVICE STATION AND ANCILLARY
RETAILING FACILITIES,
CNR EUMUNDI-NOOSA ROAD AND LIONEL DONOVAN
DRIVE, NOOSAVILLE
Project No. 7600
Report Status: V1.3 FINAL
Issue Date: Monday, 15 December 2014
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Document Management Project No.: 7600 Document Reference: NOOSAVILLE-SS-ECON-041214-V1.3F.DOCX Document Author: Warwick Powell Document Approval: 15/12/2014 4:13 pm - Warwick Powell for client distribution Last saved by Warwick Powell, 15/12/2014 4:13 pm Urban Analytics Australia Contact: Warwick Powell 0411 628 084 Client Contact: Peter Folker (Director, DFS Group) Disclaimer: Urban Analytics Australia Pty Ltd has prepared this report in good faith on the information provided by and/or gained from primary and secondary party sources. Urban Analytics Australia Pty Ltd has made every endeavour to verify the information provided or gained. However, Urban Analytics Australia Pty Ltd cannot guarantee the accuracy of the information provided to it, and shall not be responsible for any losses or damages incurred by decisions made or not made, and actions taken or not taken, on the basis of the information contained in this document. In using the information contained in this report, the reader releases Urban Analytics Australia Pty Ltd and its employees and contractors from any responsibility for such actions and the consequences of such actions. © 2014 Urban Analytics Australia Pty Ltd PAGE 2 of 2 [NOOSAVILLE-SS-ECON-041214-V1.3F.DOCX]
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REPORT AUTHOR’S DECLARATION
I, Warwick Powell, as author of this report acknowledge that I:
• Have prepared this report in good faith;
• Have arrived at the conclusions presented in this report independently; and
• Have not received any particular instructions to adopt or reject any particular opinion in preparing this
report.
Signed: Date: 15 December 2014
Name: Warwick Powell (Managing Director)
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AUTHOR’S QUALIFICATIONS AND EXPERIENCE Warwick Powell has almost 20 years’ experience in identify and assessing social and economic impacts across a broad range of public policy propositions and development activities and initiatives. After graduating with First Class Honours (Bachelor of Arts), from Griffith University in 1991 when his research and academic achievements were recognised by the awarding of the University Medal for Academic Excellence, he deferred a Department of Foreign Affairs International Studies Scholarship (China) and began work as the Research Officer to Kevin Rudd, then Director-General of the Office of the Cabinet (Queensland Government). There, he was responsible for undertaking analysis and reviews of a broad range of Government policy initiatives covering areas such as languages education in schools, closure of factories and impacts on local communities including mitigations, regional economic development programs, community facilities infrastructure development needs and programs (e.g. community halls, community health centres) etc. He also worked directly with the Director-General to undertake twice-yearly audits of Departmental performance against Governmental priorities and policy benchmarks. With a broad, whole-of-government background, he was appointed in 1994 to the role of Policy Advisor to the Minister for Mines and Energy – a role which required coal-face assessments of the impacts of proposed policies and actions on communities. He was intimately involved in evaluating the economic implications of the introduction of National Competition Policy in the State’s electricity supply industry (including economic impacts on consumers and businesses; implications for employment etc.), as well as the social impacts of proposed high voltage transmission line projects in various parts of Queensland (e.g. Gordonvale and Eastlink). He also evaluated the social benefits, impacts and economic benefits/costs of expanding Government support of renewable energy initiatives. In his Government career, he was also a Policy Analyst in the Economics Unit of the Department of Premier and Cabinet where he undertook ongoing research and analysis of economic data and prepared briefs for Cabinet consideration and action. Since 1997, Warwick has worked in private practice, undertaking studies on social and economic impacts, social attitudes and such like of a broad range of public and private projects and initiatives. As an Associate Member of the Australian Market Research Society, he coordinates, manages and implements large scale and intimate quantitative and qualitative research projects addressing community reactions to specific urban, social and economic situations and proposals cognisant of industry best practice and the latest developments in research and applied statistical methods. He has undertaken social and economic impact assessment studies for projects involving the provision of public recreational infrastructure, community infrastructure in areas such as GP needs, schooling demand and retirement accommodation opportunities, as well as private-sector residential developments, housing affordability initiatives, retail projects (large and small) and transit-oriented initiatives. He has undertaken retail specific studies across in areas such as Cairns, Townsville, Mackay, Logan, Sunshine Coast and the Gold Coast (Queensland), Maclean (NSW) and Wirrina Cove (South Australia). PAGE 4 of 4 [NOOSAVILLE-SS-ECON-041214-V1.3F.DOCX]
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Table of Contents
1 INTRODUCTION 7
2 STUDY METHODOLOGY 8
3 THE PROPOSED SERVICE STATION AND ADDITIONAL RETAIL FACILITIES 9
3.1 THE PROPOSED DEVELOPMENT 9
3.2 SITE LOCATION 9
4 TRADE AREA ANALYSIS: POPULATION AND RETAIL DEMAND 11
4.1 DEMAND GENERATORS 11
4.2 DEFINING THE TRADE AREA 11
4.3 TRADE AREA POPULATION 13
4.3.1 POPULATION AND GROWTH 13
4.4 SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS 14
4.5 EXISTING RETAIL EXPENDITURE BY CATEGORY 18
4.5.1 EXISTING RETAIL EXPENDITURE 19
4.6 NON-RESIDENT EXPENDITURE 19
4.6.1 LOCAL EMPLOYEES 19
4.6.2 LOCAL BUSINESSES 19
4.7 DISCUSSION 20
5 TRADE AREA ANALYSIS: EXISTING RETAIL SUPPLY 21
5.1 EXISTING CENTRES 21
5.1.1 LOCAL EATERIES 21
5.2 SERVICE STATIONS 23
6 ANALYSIS OF IMPACTS 24
6.1 IMPACT ON EXISTING RETAILERS 24
6.2 SUSTAINABLE RETAIL FLOORSPACE 24
6.3 SALES POTENTIAL 25
6.3.1 ASSUMPTIONS 25
6.3.2 EXPENDITURE POTENTIAL 26
6.4 SUSTAINABLE FLOORSPACE 27
7 CONCLUSIONS 28
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LIT-1F1 71 7.2 73 74 RETAIL DEMAND ISSUES RETAIL SUPPLY ISSUES POTENTIAL IMPACT ON EXISTING RETAILERS BENEFITS AND NEED 28 28 29 29 PAGE 6 of 6 [NOOSAVILLE-SS-ECON-041214-V1.3F.DOCX]
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1 INTRODUCTION
This is an independent assessment of need (demand and market scope) for a proposed Fuel Service Station and
ancillary retailing facilities located in Noosaville. The proposed development represents a contemporary service
station format with ancillary services such as dining and a modest convenience retail offer. The report considers
the existing and forecast resident population and its socio-demographic characteristics and retail expenditure in
relevant product/service categories, in the context of the current retail supply environment.
This report is structured as follows:
• Section 2: Study Methodology summarises the key approaches undertaken as part of this study;
• Section 3: The Service Station and additional retailing facilities, outlines the key elements of
the proposed development and its location;
• Section 4: Trade Area Analysis: Population and Retail Demand, provides an overview of the
trade area’s population and key demographic characteristics and assesses current and future retail
expenditure;
• Section 5: Trade Area Analysis: Existing Retail Supply, describes the current retailing
infrastructure servicing the trade area;
• Section 6: Analysis of Impacts, analyses the sales potential of the proposed development within
the context of retailing in the Trade Area by undertaking an assessment of current and future
expenditure potential to support additional retailing floorspace; and
• Section 7: Conclusion, which summarises the report’s assessment.
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2 STUDY METHODOLOGY
The assessment of economic need and impacts involved a combination of desktop research, a review of available
materials and information (including statistical data), retail expenditure modelling and site inspections/visitations.
Existing retail infrastructure in the catchment and prevailing population and demographic characteristics is
evaluated to determine the extent to which additional retail facilities in the catchment is economically
supportable.
The information used in the preparation of this report has been compiled from a variety of sources including the
following:
• Census of Population and Housing, Australian Bureau of Statistics (2011);
• Population forecasts (Planning Information Forecasting Unit, Queensland Government) (2009);
• Household Expenditure Survey, Australian Bureau of Statistics (1999);
• MDS Market Data Systems (2013);
• Census of Retail Activity, Australian Bureau of Statistics (1992, 1998/99);
• Monthly Retail Trade data, Australian Bureau of Statistics;
• Property Council of Australia (2009) Queensland Shopping Centre Directory; and
• Site visits of subject site and surrounding retail centres.
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3 THE PROPOSED SERVICE STATION AND ADDITIONAL
RETAIL FACILITIES
This section outlines the key elements of the proposed development and the site upon which the development
could take place.
3.1 THE PROPOSED DEVELOPMENT
The proposed development is envisaged to occupy up to ~2,617m2 Gross Floor Area (GFA). It is understood that
the proposed centre could include:
• A service station occupying 223m2;
• Entertainment and dining business (food & beverages) occupying 137m2;
• Tyre and mechanical occupying 594m2; and
• Hardware / industrial businesses (3) with a combined GFA of 1,663m2.
The proposed development will principally service nearby residents, employees and drive-by traffic (to and from
home/work). Proximity and ease of accessibility to local residents are considered important factors to the
successful operation of such integrated facilities.
It can be noted that the proposed development format is consistent with contemporary trends and community
expectations with regards to a service station and its general offer. Ancillary dining opportunities as well as a
modest convenience-retailing offer will support the proposed service station. In effect, a contemporary service
station has filled the gap left by traditional “corner stores” as these have slowly but surely disappeared as
retailing has become consolidated into larger format centres.
3.2 SITE LOCATION
The subject site is located on lands situated on the corner of Eumundi-Noosa Road and Lionel Donovan Drive,
Noosaville, and is formally described as Lot 31 SP170751 and Lot 4 SP159610.
The general location of the proposed development is shown on Map 1, which also shows the surrounding retail
infrastructure. The subject site location is highly visible and easily accessible for surrounding residents, businesses
and workers, located as it is on a prominent corner of a busy road. In terms of local workers, it is located close to
the extensive Noosaville Industrial Estate and motor vehicle retailing precinct.
The aerial image shows the Noosaville SA2 area (blue shade, red outline), which can be considered to be the
relevant population catchment for the proposed development. Also marked is the Noosaville Industrial Estate
(dark blue outline). The subject site is located within the Noosaville Industrial Estate. Also marked on the aerial
are the two major retailing centres within the Noosaville SA2, namely Noosa Civic and Noosaville Woolworths.
The Caltex Tewantin and Shell Coles Express service station facilities are also indicated; the former is located
approximately 1.8km to the north of the subject site, while the latter is approximately 6.7km to the east. Within
the catchment itself there are four service stations. They are:
• The Caltex centre located as part of the Noosa Civic retail centre;
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• The Mobil at Gympie Terrace;
• The BP at Mary Street (an ancillary retailing of approximately 160m2); and
• A Caltex located at Venture Drive within the Noosaville industrial precinct, servicing mainly commercial and
industrial users within the precinct.
MAP 1: SITE LOCATION WITHIN LOCAL CONTEXT
Noosaville Industrial
Estate: Major
Employment Node
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4 TRADE AREA ANALYSIS: POPULATION AND RETAIL
DEMAND
This section of the report examines the Trade Area that is likely to be served by the proposed neighbourhood
centre. The trade area population, socio-demographic profile of the population and the retail expenditure levels
on relevant product categories are considered. Also considered are the non-resident demand generators
relevant to the proposed centre, namely local business demand and employee demand.
4.1 DEMAND GENERATORS
Retail demand (expenditure) is a function of a Trade Area’s permanent population and its demographic
characteristics as well as other factors such as passing trade (e.g. tourism expenditure) and demand generated by
nearby businesses and workers. Given the generally urban nature of the locality, without any significant tourism
attractors (e.g. destinations, short-term accommodation etc.), the vast majority of the relevant demand for the
proposed centre will be driven by the following factors:
• Trade Area Residents: the vast majority of demand is likely to be generated by the permanent residents
of the Trade Area. This is for reasons of proximity and convenience, given that the proposed Centre is
located on a major vehicular access corridor;
• Precinct Workers: The proposed retail centre is located in close proximity to a significant node of
regional employment, namely the Noosaville Industrial Estate. The area accommodates a considerable
workforce of whom a significant proportion is likely to live outside the Trade Area and therefore, travel
to work;
• Precinct Business Expenditure: Just as precinct workers will contribute to overall demand, so too does
local business activity. Expenditure by businesses on goods and services typically comprises between 1%
and 5% of major employment centres’ turnover; and
• Through traffic (external to Trade Area). This is a particularly important consideration given the location
of the proposed centre on an important thoroughfare connecting the populations to the west with
Hastings Street, Noosa. It can be noted that Eumundi Road is one of the main access points into Noosa
but more importantly it is the thoroughfare for residents and visitors to travel to the internationally
renowned Eumundi Markets, which are held Wednesday and Saturday. A considerable number of
visitations each week (~1,000+) travel to these markets from the Noosa locality.
4.2 DEFINING THE TRADE AREA
The scope of the trade area or retail catchment served by any shopping centre is a function of a number of inter-
related factors. These factors include, but are not limited to the following:
• The relative attraction of the subject development compared to alternative competitive retail facilities.
Factors that impact on the relative attractiveness of a retailing facility include the scale and composition
of the centre, and the traders that are active within the centre. Other important attributes are centre
layout, atmosphere/ambience, car parking and access;
• The relative proximity of the subject development and other competitive centres also impact on a
centre’s ability to extend its trade area. The location, composition, quality and scale of competitive retail
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facilities in an area all go towards defining the spatial catchment that the subject centre is likely to
effectively serve;
• The road network and public transport infrastructure in an area are important drivers of trade area
serviced, as these impact on the extent to which competitive centres in an area are readily accessible
and used by residents; and
• Significant physical barriers that are difficult to negotiate often play a role in defining a retail catchment.
Physical barriers will often determine the outer boundaries of a retail catchment simply by prohibiting
shoppers from accessing particular facilities.
The relevant trade area for the proposed development has been defined, taking into account all of these factors.
In this regard, the main considerations that impact on the spatial footprint of the trade area to be served by the
proposed development are as follows:
• The location of competitive retailing facilities within the area. It can be noted that the area is already
served by larger or major shopping centres with major supermarket anchor tenancies as well as a small
convenience retail centre. These are:
o Noosa Civic – a high order regional centre located to the north of the subject site; and
o Noosaville Woolworths.
• The surrounding road network and physical barriers have also been taken into account. The subject site
area is located on Eumundi-Noosa Road which is an east-west connection linking residents and visitors
to Noosa to the coastal centre of Noosa itself (and bi-weekly to and from the Eumundi market) and also
providing convenient local vehicular and pedestrian access for residents surrounding the site and
workers in nearby employment precincts. Through traffic to and from the west of the subject site will find
the proposed location convenient.
Taking these factors into account, Map 1 (above) shows the trade area that is likely to be served by the proposed
convenience centre. The defined area consists of a Main Trade Area and, within it, the immediate catchment of
workers and visitors to the Noosaville Industrial Estate and motor vehicle retailers/showrooms precinct. The Main
Trade Area captures the SA2 of Noosaville.
Given the proposed nature of the proposed development and its convenience function, we would expect that the
majority of its trade would derive from with the Main Trade Area (up to 80%). Further, given the location and
accessibility of the proposed centre compared to the existing retailing environment, it would be reasonable to
anticipate that the proposed centre would strongly service residents and workers within an 800m to 1,000m
walking/cycle radius of the site.
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4.3 TRADE AREA POPULATION
This section provides details of key features of the Trade Area’s existing and forecast residential population.
4.3.1 POPULATION AND GROWTH
The current Trade Area population is approximately 7,731 persons (2011 Census). The total Trade Area is
expected to experience moderate growth into the future, growing by 4,597 persons, to a population of 12,328
persons by 2031 (medium series forecast) [Table 1].
TABLE 1: ESTIMATED RESIDENT POPULATION AND PROJECTED RESIDENT
POPULATION (MEDIUM SERIES)
Medium series Projection
Estimated Resident Population
AREA 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
Sunshine Coast 338,429 376,733 420,439 499,465 555,616
Total Trade
7,731 8,875 10,113 11,276 12,328
Area
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LIT-1F1 4.4 SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS Tables 2 presents summary demographic data for the trade areas, benchmarked against Brisbane and Queensland. TABLE 2: TRADE AREA POPULATION AND DEMOGRAPHICS (2011) People Noosaville % Queensland % Australia Total 7,731 -- 4,332,739 -- 21,507,717 -- Male 3,668 47.4 2,148,221 49.6 10,634,013 49.4 Female 4,063 52.6 2,184,518 50.4 10,873,704 50.6 Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander 48 0.6 155,825 3.6 548,369 25 people Age Noosaville % Queensland % Australia People 0-4 years 331 43 297,893 69 1,421,050 6.6 5-9 years 361 47 286,989 6.6 1,351,921 6.3 10-14 years 443 5.7 290,982 67 1,371,054 6.4 15-19 years 432 5.6 293,917 68 1,405,798 65 20-24 years 319 4.1 293,845 6.8 1,460,673 6.8 25-29 years 287 3.7 300,709 69 1,513,236 7.0 30-34 years 305 3.9 286,697 6.6 1,453,775 6.8 35-39 years 409 5.3 308,180 7.1 1,520,138 7.1 40-44 years 513 6.6 312,567 7.2 1,542,879 7.2 45-49 years 547 7.1 302,744 7.0 1,504,142 7.0 50-54 years 565 7.3 288,140 67 1,447,404 67 55-59 years 628 8.1 257,962 6.0 1,297,244 6.0 60-64 years 712 9.2 243,125 5.6 1,206,116 5.6 65-69 years 617 8.0 185,758 43 919,319 43 70-74 years 477 6.2 136,885 3.2 708,090 3.3 75-79 years 320 4.1 99,572 2.3 545,263 25 80-84 years 247 3.2 76,971 1.8 436,936 2.0 85 years and over 220 2.8 69,801 1.6 402,681 19 Median age 4] - | 36 - 37 - PAGE 14 of 14 [NOOSAVILLE-SS-ECON-041214-V1.3F.DOCX]
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LIT-1F1 Registered marital Noosaville % Queensland % Australia % status People aged 15 years and over Married 3,478 | 527 1,655,245 479 8,461,114 48.7 Separated 250| 38 114,427 33 529,280 3.0 Divorced 796 | 12.1 314,681 91 7,460,899 4 Widowed a7| 63 173,469 5.0 949,634 55 Never married 7,653 | _25.1 7,199,054 347 5,962,769 343 Education Noosaville % Queensland % Australia % Pre-school 71 37 50,615 39 332,844 51 Primary - 244) 12.8 258,616 20.2 1,181,787 18.2 Government Primary - Catholic 86] 45 72,713 57 359,062 55 Primary - Other Non 143; 7.5 48,450 3.8 214,359 33 Government Secondary - 182; 9.5 154,133 12.0 774,074 19 Government Secondary - Catholic 83 44 51,966 4.1 307,142 47 Secondary - Other 151 79 52,454 4 254,828 39 Non Government Technical or further 18] 62 79,238 62 473,606 73 education institution University or tertiary 41; 74 173,433} 13.5 932,524 14.3 institution Other 50] 26 28,841 22 761,660 25 Not Stated 638 | 33.5 311,791 24.3 7,511,694 23.2 Total 1,907 - 1,282,250 - 6,503,580 - [NOOSAVILLE-SS-ECON-041214-V1.3F.DOCX] PAGE 15 of 15
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Employment Noosaville % Queensland % Australia %
People who reported
being in the labour
force, aged 15 years
and over
Worked full-time 1,754 50.9 1,302,955 60.0 6,367,554 59.7
Worked part-time 1,287 37.4 611,296 28.2 3,062,976 28.7
Away from work 184 5.3 125,025 5.8 627,797 5.9
Unemployed 220 6.4 131,798 6.1 600,133 5.6
Total in labour force 3,445 -- 2,171,074 -- 10,658,460 --
Occupation Noosaville % Queensland % Australia %
Employed people
aged 15 years and
over
Managers 554 17.2 245,606 12.0 1,293,970 12.9
Professionals 538 16.7 385,581 18.9 2,145,442 21.3
Sales Workers 480 14.9 199,634 9.8 942,140 9.4
Technicians and
463 14.4 304,563 14.9 1,425,146 14.2
Trades Workers
Clerical and
Administrative 385 11.9 299,326 14.7 1,483,558 14.7
Workers
Community and
Personal Service 321 10.0 202,978 10.0 971,897 9.7
Workers
Labourers 314 9.7 215,235 10.6 947,608 9.4
Machinery Operators
124 3.8 149,322 7.3 659,551 6.6
And Drivers
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Median weekly
Noosaville % Queensland % Australia %
incomes
People aged 15 years
and over
Personal 524 -- 587 -- 577 --
Family 1,151 -- 1,453 -- 1,481 --
Household 911 -- 1,235 -- 1,234
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics Census of Population and Households 2011
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4.5 EXISTING RETAIL EXPENDITURE BY CATEGORY This section provides data on retail expenditure for the trade areas. The estimated retail expenditure for the trade area is based on information sourced from MDS Market Data Systems, which utilises a detailed micro-simulation model of household expenditure behaviour for all residents of Australia. The model takes into account information from a wide variety of sources including the regular ABS Household Expenditure Surveys, National Accounts data, Census data and other information. The MarketInfo product from MDS starts with the Household Expenditure Survey, the comprehensive exercise conducted by the ABS every five years. In the latest survey, just over 10,000 households across Australia were asked to provide complete details of their spending over specified periods. In addition to a thorough interview, each member of the household in question over the age of 15 was required to keep a diary of every expenditure made over a two-week period. The respondents itemise all outgoings by attaching grocery receipts as well as accurately recording all other transaction. Complete financial and social information about the entire household is also provided. All of the data is then matched with Census, Centrelink, National Accounts and other data collected by state and national governments to create a model of spending that is at the heart of MarketInfo. Micro-simulation techniques are the method by which these data calculations are performed. MarketInfo calculates spending levels down to the Statistical Area (SA), the smallest defined area used by the ABS. Each SA covers an area of approximately 180 households. MarketInfo is also able to draw down to this level because it starts with the unit records from the Household Expenditure Survey and uses the spending and other information from all of the over 10,000 surveyed households as the basis for modelling these actual results to the broader community. MarketInfo is used by a broad range of organisations throughout Australia. Among current users are AMP, Centrelink, Coles Myer, Commonwealth Bank, Ernst & Young, KPMG Consulting, Lend Lease, McDonalds, WA Health Department, Westfield and Woolworths. Throughout New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland, the MarketInfo estimates of spending behaviour that are prepared independently by MDS are commonly used by all parties in Economic Impact Assessments of a similar nature to this report. PAGE 18 of 18 [NOOSAVILLE-SS-ECON-041214-V1.3F.DOCX]
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4.5.1 EXISTING RETAIL EXPENDITURE
The retail categories utilised are based on combination of individual expenditure categories from MarketInfo. The
categories used are as follows:
• SUPERMARKET: food and grocery items including Bakery, Deli & Dairy, Seafood, Frozen Food, Fruit &
Vegetables, Meat, Other Grocery, Toiletries and Tobacco;
• TAKEAWAY FOOD: Fast Food and Takeaway;
• NEWSAGENT: All Newspapers, Magazines, Comics, Stationary, Pens, Paper & Writing Pads and Cards;
• CAFÉS AND RESTAURANTS: Meals in restaurants, hotels, clubs and related; and
• FUEL: Petrol, Diesel Fuel, LPG.
Table 3 below shows the estimated total retail expenditure for each of the categories for the residential
population of the Trade Area.
TABLE 3: ESTIMATED EXISTING RETAIL EXPENDITURE (2012-13)
TOTAL TRADE AREA
SUPERMARKET $40,082,305
TAKEAWAY FOOD $7,336,504
NEWSAGENT $2,133,659
CAFE'S &
RESTAURANTS $6,164,164
FUEL $13,041,110
TOTAL $68,757,741
Source: MDS (Note: Estimates have been rounded to nearest dollar; estimates in 2014 dollars; estimates based on national average third quintile
households)
4.6 NON-RESIDENT EXPENDITURE
As noted, given the location of the proposed centre near to existing centres of business activity and employment,
it is likely that the centre will capture some of the demand generated by these two factors.
4.6.1 LOCAL EMPLOYEES
Local employee expenditure has been estimated by UAA on the basis of conservative estimates of the local
employment base within nearby businesses and typical worker expenditure based on similar studies. The two
main categories of expenditure from local employees are supermarket groceries and takeaway food. Per capita, it
is estimated that each worker spends $240 on supermarket groceries and $1,440 on takeaway food each year.
4.6.2 LOCAL BUSINESSES
Business expenditure on goods and services typically includes demand for items such as stationary, groceries,
liquor, office fittings and furniture, computer hardware and software, catering etc. Business expenditure on goods
and services is difficult to estimate. Input-Output tables for the National Accounts indicate that:
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• For every $1m of economic output for typical office-based industries, there is an estimated retail input of
$5,000; and
• In terms of employment multipliers, this is equivalent to approximately $5,000 retail input for every 10
employees or $500 per employee.
A visual inspection of the nearby business precincts yields an estimated 200,000m2 of potential commercial and
industrial floorspace.1 Assuming one worker per 17m2 of commercial development, the area can accommodate an
estimated 11,764 workers. If each spends on average $1,680 on local groceries and takeaway food, this equates to
an additional $19.76m of retail expenditure brought into the area above and beyond the base retail expenditure
of permanent residents.
In the context of the area’s total population of approximately 7,731 persons (2011), the daily influx of workers into
the area is not insignificant. Even on the basis that at present an estimated 40% of available developable
floorspace is developed, the current situation is that there could be some 4,700 workers in the precinct each day.
4.7 DISCUSSION
Consumer demand is driven by expenditure from:
• Permanent residents;
• Local businesses;
• Local workers (coming from outside the area); and
• Tourist expenditure.
The discussion above has focused on estimating the drivers of consumption revolving around the permanent
residential base and the surrounding business/employment context. Given the location of the subject site, UAA’s
opinion is that tourist expenditure would be a negligible component of overall demand. As at 2012-13 the Trade
Area’s total retail expenditure across categories of interest was estimated to be $13m. The broad estimates of
employment in the area suggest that the consumption demand (particularly for takeaway foods) from workers in
nearly business/employment precincts could add significantly to the estimated total of residential expenditure of
$68.8m.
1
These are broad estimates only, intended for indicative analysis only, based on site inspections and analysis of aerial photo
images. The inspection was undertaken by the author on 10 December 2014.
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5 TRADE AREA ANALYSIS: EXISTING RETAIL SUPPLY
This section of the report reviews the current retailing structure within which the proposed development would
operate, in order to assist in assessing the likely trading impacts of the proposed development on other
competitive retailers.
5.1 EXISTING CENTRES
The identified Trade Area is presently serviced by a number of retail centres of varying orders of scale and
significance. The main centres are as follows:
• Noosa Civic: located southeast of the subject site is the high order regional retailing centre of the area.
Noosa Civic provides a high order retailing service to a broader population catchment, extending well
beyond the limited confines of the trade area relevant to the proposed retail centre. The Centre has
over 100 Specialty Stores including Woolworths, Big W, Factorie, Strandbags, Specsavers and more,
including fashion, home wares, furniture, technology, hair and beauty, footwear, business, banking,
Australia Post and a Medical Centre with most stores open 7 day. It has over 1,400 carparks. The
functions fulfilled by Noosa Civic are of an entirely different nature and order to those envisaged for the
proposed development. The comparison and specialty/destination retailing functions of Noosa Civic
ensure that its role within the overall structure of local retailing exceeds that which can be reasonably
attributed to the roles of the other centres within the locale. Noosa Civic also has a Caltex service
station.
• Noosaville Woolworths: located east of the subject site, at 24 Gibson Road (corner Mary Street),
Noosaville. This is a full line supermarket centre. Compared to the subject development, it is of an
entirely different order of offer, fulfilling the weekly shopping requirements of surrounding residents.
5.1.1 LOCAL EATERIES
It can also be noted that within the largest industrial employment centre relevant to the subject site – namely the
Noosaville Industrial Estate – there are only three fast food stores. Given the level of employment activity that is
generated by the Industrial Estate, it is prima facie clear that three fast food stores substantially under-supplies in
terms of convenient and fast food for local workers. These are shown in Map 2 below.
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MAP 2: INDUSTRIAL PRECINCT SEGMENTS AND EATERIES
Lionel Donovan Dr Segment
Map 2 also dissects the Industrial Precinct into a number of distinct eatery catchments or segments. The main
divider is Noosa-Eumundi Road, which is a 4-lane road. From a precinct worker’s perspective this major road acts
as a natural barrier to pedestrian movement. It can be seen that there is a single snack bar located directly
opposite the subject site on Noosa-Eumundi Road. This snack bar services passing traffic and no doubt also
draws custom from the northern segment of the Industrial Precinct. Another café/eatery is located within this
same northern segment on Venture Road. While these two eateries are within 200m of the subject site, pedestrian
movement is impeded by the existence of Noosa-Eumundi Road.
The other snack bar/café located within the industrial precinct is at the corner of Rene Street and Noosa-Eumundi
Road. This is to the west of the subject site at a distance of approximately 520m. While this distance is notionally
within a reasonable 10-minute walk zone (~800m) the reality is that during the hotter days of the year, many
workers would be dissuaded from walking that distance. On this assessment, there is a gap in worker meals
servicing the north-easterly segment (in which the subject site is located), as well as sections of the southern
segment.
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5.2 SERVICE STATIONS
As noted earlier there are four service stations within the catchment proper, one of which is predominantly
focused on servicing the commercial and industrial requirements of users within the Noosaville industrial precinct.
This Venture Terrace Caltex is a 24/7 operation but is unmanned after hours.
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6 ANALYSIS OF IMPACTS
This section analyses the sales potential for the proposed development within the competitive context of retailing
in the study area.
6.1 IMPACT ON EXISTING RETAILERS
Supermarket-based centres will meet the vast bulk of an area’s population’s retailing requirements. This is
particularly the case for groceries where some 80% of household expenditure is captured by the retailing majors.
Retail offers of ~200m2 or so are usually not considered to represent a competitive offer to the retailing majors.
The proposed retailing offer, as integrated within a service station development, is extremely unlikely to ever
compete directly with the kind of retail offer of the majors.
Indeed, it can be seen that the modern service station with ancillary retail now fulfils the function of the old
“corner store”. Increasingly, service stations offer a range of convenience retailing, to meet the 24/7 needs of
nearby residents, workers and drive-through customers. Today’s consumers are actually accustomed to this
function being offered by modern service stations, and expect them to be able to supply a reasonable range of
household conveniences.
It is unlikely that a modest convenience offer attached to a service station with the floorspace configuration as
provided for by the analysis above would cause significant impacts on the major supermarkets and centres
servicing the area today and into the future. This is for the following main reasons:
• The proposed development has a general retailing offer component of ~223m2 some of which will be
dedicated to “back of house” uses, storage etc, which cannot offer the range and lines of products that
would be offered by the other grocery supermarkets servicing the Trade Area, and therefore fulfills a
genuinely convenience function; and
• The spatial distribution of the centres within the Trade Area environment provides all existing retailers
as well as the proposed centre with reasonable unique sub-catchments, which they can service to a high
level. Refer to Map 2 above.
6.2 SUSTAINABLE RETAIL FLOORSPACE
The amount of floorspace that can be sustained by a trade area’s expenditure is dependant on average turnover
per square metre of floorspace for the different retail categories. This is often described as the Retail Turnover
Density (RTD).
Establishing an RTD for a given location is difficult, as there is usually limited information available on retail
performance of centres in specific localities. The most comprehensive survey on turnover was last undertaken by
the ABS in the 1991/92 retail Census that surveyed all retailers. This data is now considerably outdated and is
considered to be unreliable in determining present day performance. This retail census was followed up in
1998/99 with a survey of a sample of tenants and provides national average data on RTD. As such, while it is more
current it does not provide location specific trading performance data. However, it is the best available source of
information and is widely used by retailers to benchmark performance.
Based upon the ABS 1998/99 Retail Industry Survey, the RTD used for the purposes of this assessment is
summarised in Table 4.
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TABLE 4: RTD ASSUMPTIONS
CATEGORY $/M 2
Supermarket* $7,500
Takeaway Food $4,714
Services e.g. newsagent, video hire $6,000
Café’s and Restaurants $4,543
Service Station 6,000 persons**
*>400m in size; **Note: typical service station preconditions are a catchment of ~6,000 persons or expenditure of $4.4m per year.
2
6.3 SALES POTENTIAL
The sales performance of any retail facility is a function of a number of critical factors, including:
• The quality of the facility, the tenancy mix, the physical layout and the ease of access and use, parking
and general atmosphere and ambience;
• The overall size of the available sales area that the facility seeks to service, which effectively places a cap
or ceiling on likely sales that can be achieved; and
• The location and strengths of competitive retail facilities in the trade area, and thereby the comparative
effectiveness of those facilities to meet the needs of the area’s population.
As noted above, the proposed development seeks to service the neighbouring convenient retailing needs of the
local population and the daily needs of the workers of the nearby Noosaville Industrial Precinct and motor vehicle
showrooms. In this regard, it is not positioned to substitute the retailing services offered by the major centres
servicing the area, which are of a qualitatively and quantitatively different order.
The proposed development will be anchored by a service station with accompanying convenience store offer,
accompanied by a café. Given its location and primary daytime customer base, it could be described as a
“tradie’s café”. (Refer to Map 2 and associated discussion regarding the needs of industrial precinct workers.)
Three larger-format industrial business offers (of between 500-600m2 each) are also proposed.
6.3.1 ASSUMPTIONS
The following assumptions are used to estimate the average trading level for the defined trade area for the retail
categories identified above:
• Population growth for the trade area is based on the forecasts provided by PIFU (medium series)
between 2006 and 2031;
• Expenditure per household estimates for 2012-13 are sustained for each of the forecast years at current
dollars;
• Real annual growth in retail expenditure is assumed to be zero;
• The relevant supply context does not include Noosaville Civic, which provides an entirely different order
and function within the retailing environment servicing the Main Trade Area; and
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• Non-residential retail demand generators have been excluded from the analysis as these are difficult to
estimate to high levels of confidence.
These assumptions provide an extremely conservative estimate of future potential expenditure, as it is possible
that (a) population growth in the Trade Area will achieve rates closer to the high series forecasts (as opposed to
the medium series assumed below); (b) retail expenditure can reasonably be expected to experience real growth
of up to 1.1% per year; and (c) non-residential retail demand generators are likely to contribute somewhere
between 3% and 5% extra to the total retail demand expenditure pool.
As such, if on the basis of these conservative parameters there is demonstrable demand for additional retailing
floorspace, then in all probability the estimated demand will err on the conservative side of the assessment and
there is likely to be demand for more floorspace than estimated below.
6.3.2 EXPENDITURE POTENTIAL
The food and consumables market comprises spending on all key retail segments that are normally stocked in
supermarkets. This includes fresh food and dry groceries, and to a lesser extent, some non-food items or general
merchandise. In Australia, approximately 75-80% of groceries and related expenditure is captured by major
supermarkets; the remainder is distributed through lower order retail centres and standalone stores.
The potential expenditure at the proposed service station convenience store is determined in large part by the
total available spending within the trade area that the stores supply. For the total trade area, the total
expenditure market for each of the categories is shown at Table 5.
TABLE 5: ESTIMATE OF FUTURE EXPENDITURE (RESIDENTIAL)
2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
SUPERMARKET $40,187,637 $46,134,430 $52,879,092 $58,960,214 $64,460,936
TAKEAWAY FOOD $7,355,753 $8,444,225 $9,678,736 $10,791,795 $11,798,621
NEWSAGENT $2,138,458 $2,454,898 $2,813,794 $3,137,381 $3,430,085
CAFE'S &
RESTAURANTS $6,180,279 $7,094,810 $8,132,042 $9,067,231 $9,913,162
FUEL $13,074,884 $15,009,649 $17,203,998 $19,182,466 $20,972,104
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6.4 SUSTAINABLE FLOORSPACE
The analysis provides an estimate of sustainable floorspace within the Trade Area. The results are summarised in
Table 6 below. The results are conservative for the reasons outlined above. Note that the grocery component
relates to grocery offers with floorspaces in excess of 400m2. The proposed development does not impact on
centres of this size and format.
TABLE 6: SUSTAINABLE RETAIL FLOORSPACE (M 2 )
2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
SUPERMARKET 5,358 6,151 7,051 7,861 8,595
TAKEAWAY FOOD 1,560 1,791 2,053 2,289 2,503
NEWSAGENT 356 521 469 523 572
CAFE'S &
RESTAURANTS 1,360 1,562 1,790 1,996 2,182
FUEL* 2.97 3.41 3.91 4.36 4.77
TOTAL 8,636 10,025 11,363 12,669 13,851
*No of service stations sustainable
Furthermore, while the analysis above has not explicitly accounted for the additional demand for takeaway foods
from nearby workers, the broad estimates outlined earlier provide a strong basis of confidence that there is a high
level of demand and need for takeaway food services in Noosaville. The proximity of the proposed centre to key
employment nodes, such as the Noosaville Industrial Estate, has the potential to provide workers in these areas
with a convenient service.
There is also a question about the provision of choice for local workers. Existing snack bars and cafés can be
described as more “traditional” in nature, providing a mix of deep fried, assorted fast foods and burger-style
offerings. A service station-based offer would no doubt supply similar products but can also offer a broader range
of sit-down meals.
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7 CONCLUSIONS
This section of the report presents the main conclusions from the analysis. The following considerations have
been evaluated:
• Retail demand issues;
• Retail supply (competition) issues;
• Potential impact on existing retailers; and
• Local considerations.
7.1 RETAIL DEMAND ISSUES
The proposed service station and attached convenience retailing would be located in an area that is expected to
experience ongoing population growth. The Trade Area is forecast to grow moderately between now and 2031,
which will result in increased demand for retail services in the area.
There is no doubt that the provision of a local convenience centre generally at the location described would
contribute to the enhanced convenience and amenity of current residents and future local residents as well as
surrounding businesses and workers. The estimates provided above would suggest that the workers in the nearby
industrial and commercial precinct would contribute almost $20m in expenditure on groceries and fast foods
alone.
7.2 RETAIL SUPPLY ISSUES
A local population can and should be served by conveniently located retail services. The opportunity to provide
such services within a reasonable walking distance from the majority of residents and workers is consistent with
contemporary triple-bottom line considerations that emphasise the economic, social and environmental benefits
of promoting improved pedestrianisation of neighbourhoods.
A range of retail offers serves Noosaville residents, ranging in size and nature. Two supermarket anchored major
centres have been identified as meeting the core grocery and other retailing needs of the area’s residents. The
proposed development is, however, of an entirely different order (both qualitatively and quantitatively) from the
established major retailer-anchored centres. Indeed, the service station anchored convenience offer could be
seen as something of a modern twist on the old corner store; today’s consumers are increasingly accustomed to
being able to use a service station on a 24/7 basis as a corner store, topping up on convenience groceries and
other household items on a casual, unstructured basis.
Furthermore, given the location of the proposed development it is well positioned to service the surrounding
industrial and commercial precinct’s workers. A recent site inspection identified three two fast food outlets within
the industrial/commercial precinct; one required workers to cross the busy Eumundi-Noosa Road to access while
the other was located quite some way away. Providing precinct workers with choice and quality options for
lunches is a desirable social outcome. The opportunity to enjoy a breakfast or lunch venue with a reasonable
standard of fit out and air conditioning has much to commend it.
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7.3 POTENTIAL IMPACT ON EXISTING RETAILERS
It is unlikely that a local service station with a small convenience offer would cause significant impacts on the
major supermarkets and centres servicing the area today and into the future. The scale of the proposed
development would mean that its offer would be qualitative and quantitatively different from the larger format
retailers servicing the area.
7.4 BENEFITS AND NEED
As a convenience offer, however, there is considerable merit to the proposed development.
Service centre-based convenience retailing can be treated as today’s corner store, especially when they are open
on a 24/7 basis. Contemporary consumers certainly treat service stations as more than just places to buy petrol. In
effect, this is what is proposed for the subject site.
There is, furthermore a surrounding catchment of a very large number of workers. There are presently extremely
limited lunchtime options for these workers to buy lunch, and enjoy a short break away from their places of work.
Workers in the Lionel Donovan Drive segment, which does not have immediate access to such services,
particularly feel these limits. The proposed café will meet a clear need for more and better lunchtime options for
the local workforce. In this regard, the proposed café could be described as a “tradies’ café”. A convenience
retailing offer – such as would be offered by a small facility attached to a service centre – would also meet an
after-work need for workers who may need to pick up a few items on their way home.
Lastly, there is Noosaville’s permanent residential population for whom the proposed development would be a
small but convenient part of the overall retailing infrastructure servicing the community. The proposed
development will neither compete with nor, as a result, threaten the viability of existing large format retailers.
Rather, it will be a proportionate complement to the higher order retailing that already services the Trade Area’s
population.
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