MCU14/0056 Economic impact report Att B - Information response

 traffic census count to the south of the Myall Street exit (excluding heavy vehicles) for
 purposes of this analysis.
 Table 2.2 below sets out our estimate of the service station’s likely performance for the
 period 2017 to 2026 assuming:
      •   The service station achieves 1% penetration of car traffic along the Bruce
          Highway. As part of the Bruce Highway traffic consists of Cooroy area residents,
          No allowance has been made for traffic along Myall Street to avoid potential
          double-counting.
      •   Average fuel expenditure per car was $52.5 in 2012 and $51.1 in 2013 based on
          Australian Retailer Association (ARA) data. The $51.1 has been held constant
          although it is likely to increase over time, given historic volatility in fuel prices.
          Increases per litre (in constant dollar values) have averaged about 2.3% per
          annum over the past ten years. (As at December 2014, fuel prices have declined
          to 2010 levels).
      •   Based upon ARA and IBISWorld industry data, average sales on retail goods and
          services is about 18%–20% of total service station sales. However, given its co-
          location with a caravan park and the likely use of the retail component by Cooroy
          residents as a convenience store (especially outside normal retail trading hours),
          we would expect this to be higher at 30%.

 Table 2.2: Estimated Sales, Service Station, 2017 - 2026 (2013 $ Values)

Year ending June                          Units           2017          2019       2021      2026
Fuel Sales
Bruce Hwy (AADT)*                         No. Cars       18,145       18,533      18,930    19,961
Penetration                                    %          1.0%          1.0%       1.0%      1.0%
Cars Per Day                              No. Cars         181              185     189       200
Average Fuel Expenditure Per Car               $         $51.10       $51.10      $51.10    $51.10
Fuel Sales Per Day                             $         $9,272       $9,471      $9,673   $10,200
Fuel Sales Per Annum                           $m         $3.38        $3.46       $3.53     $3.72
Retail Sales
30% of Total Sales                             $m         $1.45        $1.48       $1.51     $1.60
Total Sales                                    $m         $4.83        $4.94       $5.04     $5.32
   *Excludes heavy vehicles.
   Source: Foresight Partners Calculations.

 Under these assumptions, the proposed service station would achieve sales from fuel and
 retail goods of $4.83 million at 2017, increasing in line with traffic growth along the Bruce
 Highway. An estimated $1.45 million of this would be generated by the convenience retail
 component of the service station operation.
 A convenience retail offer is now an essential and virtually inseparable part of a modern
 service station, with the co-location of fast food outlets also increasingly common in major
 highway and arterial road locations. The entry of Coles and Woolworths into the retail


                                                     9
 Myall Street – Information Request Response
 12022-1 Rev 0
 22 December 2014