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Cooroy Service Station EIA 21_06_16

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Economic Impact Assessment: 6 Taylor Court, COOROY




                                       Level 10, 87 Wickham Tce
                                            Spring Hill QLD 4000
                                                  (ph) 3839 1400
                                   [email protected]
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Page 2

                                                                                 Prepared on behalf of:

                                                                            Hass Holdings Pty Ltd




                                                                                              Prepared by:

                                                                                Kerrianne Meulman
                                                                                             Managing Director


                                                                                        Joshua Binkley
                                                                                                     Consultant




                                                                                                    June 2016

                                                                                               Job No: 16034




                                                   Warranty

This report has been based upon the most up to date readily available information at this point in time, as
documented in this report. Urban Economics has applied due professional care and diligence in accordance with
generally accepted standards of professional practice in undertaking the analysis contained in this report from
these information sources. Urban Economics shall not be liable for damages arising from any errors or omissions
which may be contained within these information sources.

As this report involves future market projections which can be affected by a number of unforeseen variables, they
represent our best possible estimates at this point in time and no warranty is given that this particular set of
projections will in fact eventuate.

Page 3

TABLE OF CONTENTS

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................................................ ii
1.0      INTRODUCTION ...........................................................................................................................1
   1.1      BACKGROUND..................................................................................................................................... 1
   1.2      STUDY OBJECTIVES AND METHODOLOGY.................................................................................................. 1
2.0      PROPOSED DEVELOPMENT .............................................................................................................2
   2.1      THE SUBJECT SITE ................................................................................................................................ 2
   2.2      PROPOSED DEVELOPMENT .................................................................................................................... 4
   2.3      THE NOOSA CENTRES NETWORK ............................................................................................................ 5
3.0      COMPETITIVE NETWORK ...............................................................................................................7
   3.1      KEY TRENDS ....................................................................................................................................... 7
   3.2      SERVICE STATION NETWORK ................................................................................................................ 10
   3.3      PROPOSED AND APPROVED DEVELOPMENTS........................................................................................... 13
4.0      TRADE AREA ANALYSIS ...............................................................................................................15
   4.1      TRADE AREA DEFINITION .................................................................................................................... 15
   4.2      POPULATION GROWTH ....................................................................................................................... 18
   4.3      SOCIO-ECONOMIC CHARACTERISTICS..................................................................................................... 19
   4.4      IMPLICATIONS ................................................................................................................................... 21
5.0      DEMAND ANALYSIS ....................................................................................................................22
   5.1      POOLS OF EXPENDITURE IN THE TRADE AREA .......................................................................................... 22
   5.2      SERVICE STATION DEMAND ................................................................................................................. 23
   5.3      DEMAND SUMMARY .......................................................................................................................... 28
6.0      NEED ASSESSMENT ....................................................................................................................29
7.0      IMPACT ASSESSMENT..................................................................................................................31
8.0      CONCLUSION ............................................................................................................................34




                                                                                                                                                   I | Page

Page 4

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

     This Economic Impact Assessment (EIA) has been prepared by Urban Economics on behalf of Hass
      Holdings Pty Ltd to examine the need for and potential impacts of a proposed service station
      development at 6 Taylor Court, Cooroy. The proposed development would include a convenience
      store and drive-through fast-food outlet.

     The subject site has convenient access to and from the Bruce Highway and is accessible to and from
      Cooroy via the Myall St underpass. The road network proximate to the subject site is currently
      undergoing significant upgrades as part of the Cooroy to Curra project.

     There is a gap in the provision of fuel retailing facilities between Gympie and Caloundra which service
      the Bruce Highway, with most existing fuel retail facilities in this corridor not being easily accessible
      from the Highway.

     The subject site presents an opportunity to cater to the substantial volume of passing motorists
      utilising the Bruce Highway, and the projected growth in traffic volumes with the ongoing upgrades
      of the road network.

     It is anticipated that 70 to 80% of custom at the subject site would be derived from motorists travelling
      along the Bruce Highway.

     With high levels of motor vehicle ownership amongst Cooroy households, this community would have
      an above average propensity for demand for fuel retailing and auto service facilities in particular.
      Importantly, approximately 95% of working persons utilise a private motor vehicle as their primary
      method of transport for work.

     The Cooroy community would be frequent vehicle users, likely to generate above average kilometres
      travelled in meeting the needs of the household and therefore have an above average propensity for
      demand to access service stations.

     It is Urban Economics’s opinion that the proposed service station development would not have a
      significant impact on the performance of existing service stations facilities within the surrounding
      network, but would have a net positive impact on the provision of convenient, accessible fuel retailing
      facilities for the Cooroy community and motorists alike.

     The existing network of service stations and fast-food outlets would comfortably be able to absorb an
      additional outlet at the subject site. This impact would be distributed amongst a number of outlets
      and a geographically diverse area. More particularly, there is a clear gap in the provision of facilities
      in this Highway corridor, and the proposed development would cater for the unmet needs motorists
      in particular.

     The proposed development will complement and enhance the Nandroya Industrial Estate and will not
      significantly impact upon the ongoing supply of industrial land in Cooroy.


                                                                                                     II | Page

Page 5

1.0 INTRODUCTION
1.1       BACKGROUND

Urban Economics has been commissioned by Hass Holdings Pty Ltd to prepare this Economic
Impact Assessment EIA (EIA) for a proposed service station development at 6 Taylor Court,
Cooroy to accompany an application to the Noosa Shire Council.

This EIA examines the need and demand for the proposed development on the subject site and
critiques the proposed development in the context of the centres hierarchy in the Noosa Plan.

Urban Economics is an economic and market research consultancy, specialising in the property
sector. Based in South East Queensland we have a strong understanding of the dynamics and
drivers of the regional economy and the planning framework in which it operates.

1.2       STUDY OBJECTIVES AND METHODOLOGY

The overall objective of the EIA is to examine the need for, and potential impact of, the proposed
development at the subject site.

In preparing this EIA, Urban Economics has undertaken the following:

         Inspected the site of the proposed development and reviewed the plans for the proposed
          development,
         Identified and inspected the existing mix of service stations and fast-food facilities within the
          surrounding area and along the Bruce Highway (A1/M1), noting operator, services offered and
          location,
         Examined the existing centres network, and the available centres land within the existing centres
          network,
         Evaluated the role and performance of centres within the surrounding network, including
          available vacant space within existing centres,
         Defined a trade area for the proposed development,
         Examined the population and households within the trade area, and growth potential of this
          population
         Critiqued the demographic and socio-economic profile of the trade area community
         Reviewed key trends in service station development and supply in Queensland
         Estimated the demand for fuel retailing within the trade area
         Examined the demand for the proposed development
         Assessed the need for the proposed development
         Critiqued the capacity of existing centres to accommodate the proposed development
         Examined the likely impacts of the proposed development on the network of centres


                                                                                                 1 | Page

Page 6

2.0 PROPOSED DEVELOPMENT
2.1     THE SUBJECT SITE

The Subject Site, described as Lot 3 on SP197517 or 6 Taylor Court, Cooroy, is part of the
Nandroya Industrial Estate and comprises some 8,241m2. The site has more than 100 metres of
frontage to Holts Road, which runs parallel to the Bruce Highway and is afforded ready access for
both north and south bound motorists, as well as residents of Cooroy via the Myall Street
underpass.

FIGURE 2.1 illustrates the subject site and its immediate surroundings, and shows the significant
upgrades undertaken to the Myall Street interchange as part of the works on the ‘Cooroy to
Curra’ stretch of the Bruce Highway. The subject site itself has been utilised as a site office for
the works and includes demountable buildings and hardstand parking areas.

FIGURE 2.1: The Subject Site




Source: Nearmap showing 2nd July 2015

FIGURE 2.2 illustrates the Nandroya Industrial Estate plan.



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Page 7

FIGURE 2.2: Nandroya Industrial Estate




Source: Economic Development Queensland




                                          3 | Page


[OCR of page images]
FIGURE 2.2: Nandroya Industrial Estate

 

 

Bc.

Drainage reserve

 

 

 

Source: Economic Development Queensland

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Page 8

2.2     PROPOSED DEVELOPMENT

It is proposed to develop a service station and attenuating convenience store (120m2), together
with a drive-through fast-food outlet (330m2).

Other features of the proposed development include the provision of eight (8) fuel bowsers, 36
carparks and 4 motorcycle/scooter spaces; as well as an overflow parking area which would
accommodate trucks and vehicles with trailers and caravans as illustrated in FIGURE 2.3.

FIGURE 2.3: Proposed Development




Source: Reddog Architects




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Page 9

2.3     THE NOOSA CENTRES NETWORK

In examining the role of the proposed development on the subject site, this section examines the
mix of activity centres within the surrounding area. A representative from Urban Economics
undertook site inspections of the relevant existing centres network in June 2016, noting each
centre’s location, role, function, quality and size. FIGURE 2.4 illustrates the network of centres
in which the proposed development would operate.

       FIGURE 2.4: Existing Centres Network




       Source: Noosa Council

The Shire Business Centre is the highest order centre within Noosa and is largely defined by the
Noosa Civic shopping centre, which includes a Woolworth’s supermarket and Big W store, as well
as over 100 specialty stores and offices across more than 30,600m2 of GLA. A Woolworth’s service
station and small convenience store is located within Noosa Civic. No drive-through fast-food
outlets are located within the Business Centre.

Noosa Heads is the centre oriented around Lanyana Way and Sunshine Beach Rd. The centre
includes the Noosa Fair shopping centre (8,840m2) and Noosa Junction shopping centre
(5,100m2). Two service stations are located within Noosa Heads and no drive-through fast-food
outlets, commensurate with prevalence of local food outlets in this locality. KFC is the only
national fast-food chain in Noosa Heads.

The Noosaville Business Centre is defined by the Noosa Village shopping centre (4,834m 2), the
Noosa Homemaker Centre and the Mary Street strip which includes a number of houses and lots
converted for commercial office and health uses. Noosaville includes the Region’s only drive-
through fast-food outlet (McDonald’s).

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Page 10

Tewantin’s Business Centre is focused around the Poinciana Avenue and Doonella Street
thoroughfares. The centre includes a diverse mix of uses including the Woolworth’s anchored
Poinciana Place shopping centre and various older commercial office developments such as the
Atrium commercial suites, The Cooloola Centre and Tewantin Plaza. Tewantin includes three
service stations (BP, Coles Express and Caltex).

Cooroy is the most significant centre within the Noosa Hinterland and is dissected by the North
Coast-Brisbane rail line. The centre includes various tourism oriented businesses and uses such
as the Butter Factory Arts Centre as well as important district level uses including an IGA
supermarket (2,500m2) and the Eden Rehabilitation Centre. Two BP service stations are within
Cooroy, oriented to Elm St on the eastern side of the rail line. Subway is the only national fast-
food chain within Cooroy, together with Eagle Boys pizza and local takeaway stores, cafés and
restaurants.

The Noosa Council area also includes a range of smaller neighbourhood centres including:

      Weyba Road – includes an ALDI supermarket and Noosa General Practice.
      Quamby Place – tourist and restaurant precinct
      Sunshine Beach – Sunrise Shops; Foodworks, bottle shop, bakery butcher, medical centre
      Peregian Beach – IGA, two medical centres, Puma service station
      Tewantin – Tewantin Outlook shopping centre
      Noosaville – Bushlands shopping centre
      Pomona – Village Centre, IGA Pomona, Station Rd strip




                                                                                         6 | Page

Page 11

3.0 COMPETITIVE NETWORK
3.1       KEY TRENDS

Service station development in South East Queensland is changing, driven by numerous trends
in consumer behaviour and other market forces. This Section examines the trends that may
influence development at the subject site, particularly as they pertain to fuel retailing and fast-
food.

Fuel Retail

         The number of service station sites in Australia has reduced from around 20,000 in 1970
          to around 6,300 and has been one of the most significant changes in this sector as
          independent operators were absorbed through site acquisitions and mergers.

         The entry of the major supermarket chains Coles and Woolworths into the fuel retailing
          sector through partnerships, relationships and direct supply, has also had a significant
          impact on Australia’s fuel retailing sector. The major supermarket chains Coles and
          Woolworths now control around 45% of the fuel retailing market, increasing the
          competition on fuel prices and ensuring that the industry remains a high-volume, low-
          margin business, in turn requiring the diversification of service stations to include better
          convenience store offers and a wider range of services to remain viable.

         The ACCC estimated that the profits generated by convenience stores at service stations
          were significant compared to the profits from fuel as “the average net profit on petrol
          over the past 6 years was 0.79 cents per litre.” (2011).

         The very narrow margins for fuel retailing mean that service stations need to offer a wider
          variety of products/services in order to be viable. Convenience retailing, servicing of
          vehicles, vehicle hire, cafes, prepared meals, phone credit top-up, ATMs, bottled gas and
          ice are some of the other means of supplementing the core fuel retailing business.

         Larger ‘service centres’ are establishing providing ‘one-stop-shops’ for refuelling, retailing
          and refreshment. These centres are most commonly located in outer urban fringe areas
          with exposure and access to major arterial and commuter road networks.

         The emergence of service centres including the co-location of complementary service and
          vehicle oriented activities has presented opportunities for both fuel retailing and other
          outlets such as fast food, drive through coffee and service industries to enjoy the benefits
          of co-location with access to motorists and for motorists to enjoy improved accessibility
          and convenience.




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Page 12

      The Queensland Biofuel Mandate is scheduled to commence from January 2017. The
       mandate will require fuel sellers to achieve bio-based fuel sales that comprise 3%
       (increasing to 4% by 2018) of the total volume of regular unleaded petrol sales and 0.5%
       of all diesel fuel sold. E.g. 3 litres of E10 blended fuel for every 7 litres of regular unleaded
       petrol would meet the mandate.

       The implications of the incoming mandate are evident in NSW and illustrated in FIGURE
       3.1; which introduced a similar scheme in July 2015; highlighting an aversion from
       motorists to use ethanol based fuels, and instead opting for premium unleaded in the
       absence of regular unleaded where service stations do not offer the choice in order to
       meet the mandate.

                 FIGURE 3.1: Australian Petroleum Statistics - March 2016
                           300.0

                           250.0

                           200.0
              Megalitres




                           150.0

                           100.0

                            50.0

                             0.0
                                   NSW        VIC       QLD         SA        WA         TAS        NT

                           Premium unleaded   Proprietary brand   Regular unleaded   Ethanol-blended fuel

                 Source: Department of Industry, Innovation and Science

Convenience Retail

      Surveys of SEQ households have indicated that between 10% and 25% of the household
       retail expenditure is directed to convenience retail facilities.

      Shoppers are increasingly ‘shopping by the meal’ , purchasing a small basket of goods on
       their way home from work/school pick up to meet the nightly needs of the household,
       rather than undertaking a large weekly or fortnightly shopping trip to a planned menu.

      A study of convenience stores by IBIS World, reported that in 2003, 92% of all convenience
       stores surveyed operated 24 hours, representing a significant increase from 81% in 1996,
       and reflective of the need for these stores to respond to the needs of consumers to access
       goods and services at all hours.


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Page 13

      Time poor consumers are increasingly seeking access to shops and services 24-hours a
       day such as supermarkets, gyms, cafes, fast food, medical services and service stations.

Fast Food

      Approximately 70% of sales at a typical quick service restaurant are now at the drive-
       through window according to Urbis.

      The fast-food and takeaway industry has undergone a change in recent years with a shift
       towards healthier lifestyles and higher consumer awareness about the nutritional content
       of food. This has resulted in the major fast food operators modifying their menus as well
       as the entrance of new concepts catering to this market.

      Demand for fast food has been supported by growth in disposable incomes, as well as
       tighter economic conditions which has reduced spending on ‘fine dining’ and increased
       spending at fast-food and ‘fast-casual’ stores which provide a more value oriented
       opportunity for eating out.

      Newer fast food operators are responding to the changing palate for food to include more
       international flavours such as sushi, burritos, stir fry noodles and kebabs. Some of these
       newer operators such as Zambrero’s, Oporto, Beefy’s, Gloria Jean’s and Zarraffa’s have
       also added drive-through service, often co-locating with a service station as opposed to
       the traditional stand-alone pad site. “Australia’s cosmopolitan society has evolved in
       response to our changing demographics, with a fusion palate that is equally comfortable
       with chops and chips, as with green chicken curry and basmati rice.’’ – Woolworths Trolley
       Trends 2013




            Shell service centre at Coochin Creek (northbound) with drive-through Hungry Jack’s




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Page 14

3.2       SERVICE STATION NETWORK

TABLE 3.1 lists relevant service stations and their features including the associated convenience store areas and driving distance from the subject
site. The supply analysis has included all facilities within a 20km radius of the subject site and within a 40km radius for those facilities readily accessible
to/from the Bruce Highway, encapsulating facilities between Exit 188 in the south (Caloundra Road/Steve Irwin Way) to Gympie in the north.

TABLE 3.1: Service Stations
                                                                                                                                                     Driving
                                                             No. of pumps
                                                                                            Operating                                            distance from
 Operator           Address                                    (includes       Biofuel                     Services
                                                                                            Hours                                                 subject site
                                                             hiflow diesel)
                                                                                                                                                      (KM)
 Subject Site       6 Taylor Crt, Cooroy                           -              Y                                                                     -
 BP                 28 Elm St, Cooroy                              6              N                                                                   2.2
 Wessel Petroleum
                    2 Diamond St, Cooroy                           8              N                        Café                                       2.4
 (BP)
 Shell              1 Factory St, Pomona                           6              N                                                                   11.9
 Caltex             19 Factory St, Pomona                          4              N         6am-6:30pm     Mechanical workshop                        12.2
 BP                 141 Cooroy-Noosa Rd, Tewantin                 10              N                                                                   13.5
 United             686 Eumundi-Noosa Rd, Doonan                   8              Y         24-hours                                                  15.3
 Coles Express      60 Poinciana Ave, Tewantin                     8              N         6am-8pm                                                   16.0
 Caltex             44 Doonella St, Tewantin                       6              N         4:30am-10pm                                               16.6
 BP                 24 Farrell St, Yandina                         8              N         7am-10pm                                                  16.8
                                                                                                           Industrial self-serve site. No
 Caltex             13 Venture Dr, Noosaville                      8              N         24-hours                                                  18.3
                                                                                                           convenience store.
 Caltex             28 Eenie Creek Rd, Noosa Civic,
                                                                   8              N         5:30am-9pm                                                18.3
 Woolworths         Noosaville
 Freedom            1251 Nambour Connection Rd, Kulangoor         10              Y         4:30am-8pm                                                19.7
 Independent
                    207 Gympie Terrace, Noosaville                 8              N         5:30am-9pm     Carwash, dog wash                          20.2
 (Liberty)
 BP                 54 Mary St, Noosaville                        10              N         7am-10pm                                                  20.2
 Matilda (Puma)     66 Noosa Dr, Noosa Heads                       6              N         6am-12am                                                  23.8
 Coles Express      49 Sunshine Beach Rd, Noosa Heads             14              N         6am-8pm                                                   24.0



                                                                                                                                                    10 | Page

Page 15

                                                                                                             Industrial self-serve site. No
 Caltex             43-45 Junction Drive, Coolum Beach             8               N         24-hours                                                   27.2
                                                                                                             convenience store.
 Puma               2215 David Low Way, Peregian Beach             4               N         5:30am-9pm                                                 27.2
                                                                                                             Full service centre with food court and
 Puma               1516 Bruce Hwy, Kybong                         21              N         24-hours                                                   28.5
                                                                                                             visitor information centre
                    1816-1818 David Low Way, Coolum
 United                                                            12              Y         24-hours        Carwash                                    29.3
                    Beach
 BP                 384 Mons Rd, Forest Glen                       8               Y         7am-10pm                                                   30.2
                                                                                                             Takeaway coffee stand, truckstop
 BP                 7093 Bruce Hwy, Chevallum                      14              Y         24-hours                                                   30.9
                                                                                                             parking
 BP                 54 Beach Rd, Coolum Beach                      8               N                                                                    31.7
 Caltex             690 Bruce Hwy, Kybong                          4               N         24-hours        Restaurant                                 36.9
 BP                 295 Brisbane Rd, Monkland                      8               N                                                                    39.1
 United             51 Geordie Rd, Monkland                        8               Y         5am-8pm                                                    39.3
 Caltex             46 Geordie Road, Monkland                      8               N         24-hours        Carwash, restaurant                        39.3
                                                                                                              Within Aussie World tourist area
 Aussie World
                    73 Frizzo Rd, Palmview                         14              Y         4am-11pm        which includes Beefy’s Pies and            39.6
 Garage
                                                                                                             Subway
 Coles Express      96-102 River Rd, Gympie                        12              N         24-hours                                                   42.6
 Caltex
                    90 River Rd, Gympie                            8               N         4am-10pm                                                   42.8
 Woolworths
 Caltex
                    14 Wickham St, Gympie                          8               Y         5am-10pm                                                   43.7
 Woolworths

FIGURE 3.2 illustrates the network of service stations relevant to the subject site. Most notably, the nearest Highway oriented ‘service centres’ are the Puma at
Kybong which is almost 30km driving distance north of the subject site; and the BP at Forest Glen to the south which is more than 30km driving distance from the
subject site. This spatial representation highlights a stretch of some 60km along the Bruce Highway whereby motorists would not have convenient access to a
service station on either the northbound or southbound routes. Whilst facilities at Yandina and Kulangoor appear proximate to the Highway, each are located
along the ‘Old Bruce Highway’ route and require considerable rerouting for access to and from the M1.




                                                                                                                                                       11 | Page

Page 16

FIGURE 3.2: Service Station Network




                                      12 | Page


[OCR of page images]
FIGURE 3.2: Service Station Network
i LAS

 

 

 

* Subject Site
® Highway service station

@ Network service station

 

urban economics

Page 17

3.3       PROPOSED AND APPROVED DEVELOPMENTS

This section investigates proposed and approved developments relevant to the subject site.
Urban Economics note the following:

         A mixed-use development was proposed at 125 Myall St, Cooroy (MCU14/0056) to
          include a service station, carwash, tourist park, convenience and fast-food retail as well a
          self-storage facility. Council has since refused the application which is currently under
          appeal. (Creekgold Pty Ltd vs Noosa Shire Council)




                                 Proposed development - 125 Myall St, Cooroy

         A service station (7-Eleven) and drive-through fast-food outlet (unknown) has been
          approved at 139 Eumundi Road, Noosaville and is currently under construction. The
          development will also ultimately include service industry and showroom uses.




               Approved service station and drive-through fast-food - 139 Eumundi Rd, Noosaville




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Page 18

   66 Noosa Drive was previously a Mobil service station (now Matilda) and was approved
    for redevelopment to include a Hungry Jack’s outlet with a drive through. The application
    has not yet lapsed but the property has changed ownership since the DA and now has an
    unrelated application pending.




            Site of proposed service station and fast-food development at Noosa Heads




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Page 19

4.0 TRADE AREA ANALYSIS
This Chapter examines the population and household growth projections and critiques the key
demographic and socio-economic features that are likely to characterise the defined Trade Area,
utilising data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).

4.1       TRADE AREA DEFINITION

The Trade Area is the area from which the proposed service station would expect to draw the
majority of its local custom and has been defined on basis of the following:

         the scale, size and how the proposed development will function;
         the boundary of the Statistical Area Level 1s (SA1), which are the smallest geographical
          areas for which relevant Census data is available;
         the existing and future road and commuter network including the Bruce Highway (A1/M1)
          and Cooroy-Noosa Rd, with particular consideration as to the typical commuter and
          traveller routes;
         the location of existing and proposed service station and fast-food facilities and centres;
          and
         natural and engineered urban breaks such as Belli Creek and the Brisbane-Sunshine Coast
          rail line, which may affect perceptions of access and convenience.

In particular, it is noted that the Trade Area refers to the local resident population which would
be attracted to the services provided at the subject site. Typically, residents of the Trade Area
would form the main source of trade at a retail development, however, due to the location of
the subject site and the nature of service station operations; the main source of trade will be
derived from motorists utilising the Bruce Highway. This dynamic will be discussed further in
Chapter 5.

The Trade Area illustrated in FIGURE 4.2 represents the area from which the majority of local
demand for the proposed service station would originate and reflects the proximity of residents
to the subject site and their typical transport routes.

FIGURE 4.1 illustrates the Noosa District High School catchment area which extends to localities
beyond the Trade Area including Kybong, Eumundi, Kin Kin and towards Kenilworth; indicative of
the importance of Cooroy and Pomona for residents of these areas. The Cooroy State School
catchment reflects the defined Trade Area. TABLE 4.1 lists enrolments at local schools from which
students are travelling from throughout the district to access facilities.




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Page 20

TABLE 4.1: School Enrolments 2008-2015
                           2008     2009      2010     2011    2012    2013    2014       2015
 Cooroy SS                   584      560       537      521     525     523     534        510
 Noosa District SHS*       1,256    1,332     1,330    1,305   1,259   1,203   1,164      1,312
 Noosa Christian College     201      228       280      262     247     239     254        254
Source: MySchool      *includes Cooroy and Pomona campuses

FIGURE 4.2: Noosa District SHS Catchment Area




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Page 21

FIGURE 4.1: The Trade Area




Source: Mapinfo and associated datasets




                                          17 | Page


[OCR of page images]
FIGURE 4.1: The Trade Area

 

 

 

Source: Mapinfo and associated datasets

 

 

 

Wa 17 | Page

urban economics

Page 22

4.2       POPULATION GROWTH

TABLE 4.2 summarises the historic and projected population growth for the defined Trade Area.
Population estimates are based on the results of the 2006 and 2011 ABS Population and
Household Censuses, subsequent building approval data and population projections provided by
the Queensland Government Statisticians Office (QGSO). Projections have been derived on the
basis of a review of recent dwelling activity and an assessment of vacant residential land capacity
within the Trade Area and proposed residential dwelling activity in the area.

TABLE 4.2: Population and Household Growth
                    2011                 2015             2016                   2021                   2026
                               P.A.               P.A.                P.A.                     P.A.
                    (ACT)                (EST)           (PROJ)                 (PROJ)                 (PROJ)
 Population         6,304      0.73%     6,491   1.53%    6,590      1.70%       7,180     1.41%        7,700
 Dwellings          2,289        30      2,410     40    2,450         50       2,710          50       2,960
 PPH                2.75                 2.69            2.69                    2.65                   2.60
Source: ABS, QGSO, Urban Economics’s estimates

Population growth within the Trade Area is anticipated to remain modest between 2016 and
2026 and approach 7,700 persons by 2026. A growth of more than 500 households is projected
between 2016 and 2026 within the Trade Area.

TABLE 4.3 outlines building approvals within the Noosa Hinterland and Noosa Shire since the
2011 Census.

                 TABLE 4.3: Building Approvals
                                       2011/12   2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16*
                Noosa Hinterland         97        52      99      109     106
                Noosa (S)                 -         -       -      321     374
                 Source: ABS                                      *Fiscal year to April 2016

Household growth within the Trade Area is likely to be defined by new dwellings in developments
such as:

         Greenwood Grove,
         Cordwood Estate,
         Erindale Estate; and
         Palm Lakes Resort




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4.3    SOCIO-ECONOMIC CHARACTERISTICS

The results of the 2011 ABS Population and Household Census (the most recent Census results
available) have been utilised to examine the demographic and socio-economic characteristics of
the Trade Area population and are summarised in TABLE 4.4. The key characteristics of the Trade
Area population are compared with the Greater Brisbane and Queensland averages.

TABLE 4.4: Demographic and Socio Economic Characteristics
                                                        Trade     Noosa Shire
 Demographic                                                                     Queensland
                                                        Area        (LGA)
 Age Profile (%)
 0-14yrs                                                 18.1         17.6           20.2
 15-29yrs                                                12.6         13.2           20.5
 30-59yrs                                                40.5         41.6           40.5
 60+yrs                                                  28.8         27.6           18.7
 Labour Force (%)
 Unemployment Rate                                        7.0         7.4            6.1
 Workforce Participation Rate                            56.7         58.9           66.8
 Occupation Profile (%)
 Managers/Administrators                                 13.0         13.5           12.0
 Professionals                                           16.4         18.3           18.9
 Technicians & Trade Workers                             15.9         15.3           14.9
 Community & Personal Service Workers                    10.8         11.5           10.0
 Clerks, Administrative & Sales Workers                  24.7         24.4           24.5
 Machine Operators & Drivers                              7.0         4.9            7.3
 Labourers                                               10.5         10.4           10.6
 Inadequately Described/Not Stated                        1.6         1.7            1.8
 Home Ownership (%)
 Owned Outright                                          41.9         36.2           29.0
 Mortgage                                                34.7         31.4           34.5
 Rent                                                    21.0         28.9           33.2
 Other/Not Stated                                         2.4         3.5            3.3
 Structure of Dwellings (%)
 Separate House                                          93.4         79.5           78.5
 Semi-detached/Row/Terrace/Townhouse                      1.6         9.7            8.4
 Flat/Unit                                                3.5         9.3            11.7
 Other/Not Stated                                         1.6         1.4            1.3
 Number of Vehicles Per Dwelling (%)
 0                                                        4.6         5.4            7.2
 1                                                       34.0         38.8           35.4
 2                                                       39.5         38.5           37.2
 3                                                       13.4         10.4           11.7
 4+                                                       5.5         4.1            5.5


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 Not Stated                                                3.0         2.8            3.0

 Average Annual Household Income ($)                     63,630       64,220         78,860

 Relationship in Household
 Couple in Registered Marriage/De Facto Relationship      51.0         49.6           46.0
 Lone Parent                                               9.3         10.4           8.9
 Child Under 15yr                                         19.0         18.1           20.6
 Dependent Student (15-24yr)                               4.1         3.9            4.4
 Non-dependent Child                                       5.1         4.6            5.5
 Other in Family Household                                 2.2         2.4            3.6
 Group Household Member                                    2.7         3.6            4.0
 Lone Person                                               9.3         10.4           8.9
 Visitor in Household (from within Australia)              2.3         2.4            2.3
Source: ABS Census 2011

At the time of the 2011 Census, key features of the Trade Area community included:

        A high proportion of households with 2 or more vehicles (58.4%) compared to Noosa Shire
         (53%) and QLD (54.4%); indicative of a mobile community with a propensity for demand
         for fuel retailing facilities and motor vehicle services.

        Below average household incomes, indicative of the heightened proportion of older
         persons and retirees in the Region.

        Low proportion of rented households (21%) and a higher proportion of households owned
         or being purchased (76.8%).

        Small Area Labour Market (SALM) data for the December Quarter 2015 indicated that the
         Noosa Hinterland SA2 had an unemployment rate of just 6.7% and a labour force of some
         11,255 persons. Comparatively, the Noosa LGA had an unemployment rate of 6.0% for
         this period and had a labour force of approximately 27,000 persons.

        Analysis of the 2011 Census Working Population Profiles for the Noosa Hinterland SA2
         indicates that approximately 95% of persons commuting for work utilised only a private
         motor vehicle as their mode of transport.

        More than 70% of working people that lived within the Noosa Hinterland SA2 commuted
         outside of the area to access employment. Of the some 10,121 persons within the
         resident labour force, just 29% also worked within the region at the time of the 2011
         Census; highlighting the high propensity for the community to access convenient fuel
         retailing on their journeys to and from work.




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Page 25

         Analysis of microdata from the 2015 Motor Vehicle Census reveals that there were some
          9,021 registered road based motor vehicles which operated on petrol, diesel or LPG within
          the Cooroy postal area (4563).

4.4       IMPLICATIONS

The Cooroy area is characterised by a mix of working families with primary school aged children
and older persons including retirees and the aged, typical of the Noosa Shire area. The majority
of the working population is commuting to access employment opportunities outside of the
Cooroy area.

With high levels of motor vehicle ownership amongst Cooroy households, this community would
have an above average propensity for demand for fuel retailing and auto service facilities in
particular. Importantly, approximately 95% of working persons utilise a private motor vehicle as
their primary method of transport for work.

The Cooroy community would be frequent vehicle users, likely to generate above average
kilometres travelled in meeting the needs of the household and therefore have an above average
propensity for demand to access service stations.




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5.0 DEMAND ANALYSIS
5.1       POOLS OF EXPENDITURE IN THE TRADE AREA

The retail expenditure base is an estimate of that proportion of household income that is spent
at retail facilities. The propensity for, and the direction of, this expenditure is dependent on the
demographic and socio-economic characteristics of the community and the nature and role of
retail facilities within the surrounding area. For instance, an establishing community experiencing
considerable growth in new household formation would have a strong propensity for demand
for establishment items such as furniture, furnishings and appliances. Family communities with
school age children would have a greater propensity for bulk food and supermarket shopping,
and expenditure on clothing and school essentials.

The results of the 2009/10 ABS Household Expenditure Survey (HES) have been utilised to derive
an estimate of the average household retail expenditure base for Queensland, inflated by
changes in retail turnover per household to 2016 dollar values. It is estimated that the average
household retail expenditure base in 2016 dollar values for Queensland is $29,430. All
subsequent expenditures and projected turnovers are provided in 2016 dollars.

Based on the demographic and socio-economic profile of the Trade Area population, a retail
expenditure base of $26,340 is estimated, which reflects the lower household incomes.
Multiplication by the number of households or spending units provides an estimate of the
available retail expenditure derived from residents of the Trade Area, which is anticipated to
increase from around $64.5 million in 2016 to approximately $78.3 million by 2026.

                        TABLE 5.1: Retail Expenditure Base
                                    Year               $million
                                    2016                 64.5
                                    2021                 71.4
                                    2026                 78.3

Increases in the retail expenditure base are due to population growth only, and no allowance has
been made for:

         inflation, which does not create a demand for retail floorspace; and
         changes in real expenditure, which may accrue from changes in the real wealth of the
          Trade Area community.




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Of particular note for this Economic Impact Assessment, are the average expenditures per
household on fuel and lubricants (which is partly included in the retail expenditure base).
Included in the retail expenditure base are oils and vehicle parts bought “off the shelf” at retail
outlets, whether supermarkets, discount department stores or service station convenience
outlets. Not included in the retail expenditure base is petrol, diesel or gas bought at the fuel
pump.

5.2       SERVICE STATION DEMAND

The intended role of the subject site is primarily as a retail fuel facility and drive-through fast-
food outlet, with an ancillary convenience store to support the service station operations. This
section examines the likely demand for these components within the Trade Area.

Retail Fuel

At the time of the 2011 Census, 34% of households within the Trade Area owned one vehicle and
58.4% owned two or more vehicles. Based on the 2011 Census, it is estimated that there were
more than 4,000 private motor vehicles within the Trade Area or approximately 1.75 vehicles per
household at the time of the Census.

The following table projects the growth of motor vehicle ownership within the Trade Area, based
on household growth only and assuming a constant average number of vehicles per household
since 2011.

                        TABLE 5.2: Vehicles in the Trade Area
                                  Year                No. of Motor Vehicles
                                  2011                        4,010
                                  2016                        4,295
                                  2021                        4.750
                                  2026                        5,185

Assuming:

         90% of motor vehicles within the Trade Area are passenger vehicles (based on the 2015
          Motor Vehicle Census);
         adopting an average fuel consumption of 10.6 litres per 100 kilometres and an average
          annual distance of 11,000km per vehicle (based upon the results of the ABS Survey of
          Motor Vehicle Use 2012);

the following demand for fuel from residents of the Trade Area alone has been estimated in
TABLE 5.3.




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                        TABLE 5.3: Demand for Fuel in the Trade Area
                                                       Passenger Vehicle Litres
                                   Year
                                                        per annum (millions)
                                   2011                          4.2
                                   2016                          4.5
                                   2021                          5.0
                                   2026                          5.4

It is recognised that not all demand would be directed to a service station at the subject site, with
Trade Area residents also refuelling when travelling outside the Trade Area for employment,
entertainment, shopping, holidays etc. This demand analysis has assumed no other major
changes to the current network of service stations.

It is also noted that there are a mix of service stations provided in the broader area and within
other centres. Market shares have therefore been estimated on the basis of the following:

       There are two (2) other service stations located within the Trade Area;

       The nearest highway oriented service stations are some 28.5km north (Puma Kybong) and
        30.2km south (BP Forest Glen) driving distance from the subject site.

       The location of the subject site being accessible on outbound and homebound trips for
        Trade Area residents, particularly for commuters and those accessing local schools from
        throughout the greater area.

“Rogue” expenditure is that share of expenditure that is obtained from outside a trade area. This
includes expenditure by those who actually live outside the trade area, such as commercial
vehicles and truck drivers, day-trippers, those visiting family or friends, tradespersons and those
working within the local area.

A service station, given its nature, has significant rogue expenditure, particularly if located on a
major arterial road. The subject site is a-typical to a regular service station site; given the location
of the proposed service station adjacent to and at the entry/exit from the Bruce Highway. In this
instance, it is anticipated that the majority of trade at the subject site would be derived from
outside of the Trade Area, with the proposed development acting as an important node for
motorists travelling along and accessing the Bruce Highway. For these reasons, a rogue
expenditure level of 70% has been adopted for the subject site.

                        TABLE 5.4: Fuel Consumption at Subject Site (ML)
                                           2016    2021      2026
                           Trade Area       1.5     1.65       1.8
                           Rogue            3.5      5.8       4.2
                           Total            5.0     5.5        6.0

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A service station at the subject site could conservatively achieve a fuel sales volume of
approximately 5ML litres per annum in 2016 and 6ML litres by 2026, assuming no other changes
to the fuel network.

This is sufficient to support a fuel retailing facility in this location, and is demonstrative of growing
demand for fuel retailing to service the needs of Trade Area residents and other motorists
accessing the area. The ACCC (2014) estimates that the average non-supermarket site averages
around 2.9 ML per year and the supermarket sites average 5.4 ML per year.

The ‘Cooroy to Curra’ upgrade of the Bruce Highway will have direct implications for Cooroy and
the rogue demand for services at the subject site. FIGURE 5.1 illustrates the upgrade of the Myall
St interchange and Bruce Highway relative to the subject site, highlighting the closing of the direct
exit/entrance from/to Holts via the Highway in place of higher speed ramps.

FIGURE 5.1: Myall Street Interchange Upgrade




Source: Department of Transport and Main Roads

Significant growth is projected in the amount of traffic utilising the road network proximate to
the subject site due to the ‘Cooroy to Curra’ upgrades. Forecasts of Average Annual Daily Traffic
(AADT) in 2026 from the project are compared to reported data from the 2010-2015 Traffic
Censuses in TABLE 5.5, outlining this anticipated growth.

TABLE 5.5: Average Annual Daily Traffic Counts
                                                                                                Forecast
                           2010        2011       2012        2013        2014        2015
                                                                                                  2026
 Bruce Highway -
 South of                 19,768      20,132      20,408     21,199      21,968      22,746        n.a
 Interchange
 Bruce Highway -
 North of                 15,161      15,784      16,035     15,835      15,835      15,835      18,600
 Interchange
 Myall Street              8,072       8,670      8,034       7,818       8,468       8,860      12,660
Source: Department of Transport and Main Roads


                                                                                              25 | Page

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Convenience Retail

Surveys of households in SEQ have indicated that between 10% and 25% of the household retail
expenditure is directed to convenience retail facilities.

Assuming that 15% of the Trade Area retail expenditure is directed towards convenience retail
and multiplying the retail expenditure base by the projected number of households or spending
units (TABLE 4.1), this translates to a 2016 convenience retail expenditure base of $9.7 million,
rising to $11.7 million by 2026. This reflects an increase in the retail convenience expenditure
base of $2million between 2016 and 2026.

Adopting an average productivity level of $5,000/m2 for convenience retail floorspace, this
suggests that the Trade Area would generate growth in demand for convenience retail facilities
in the order of 400m2 between 2016 and 2026, due only to the projected population and
household growth over this period.

As at 2016, it is anticipated that the Trade Area population would have demand for some 1,940m2
of convenience based retailing. Existing convenience retail facilities within the Trade Area are
limited to the BP service stations within Cooroy of approximately 210m2.

Therefore, in regards to general convenience retailing, there appears to be demand for further
such retailing in the Trade Area. Furthermore, and despite this dynamic, the convenience
component of the proposed development comprises just 195m2 GFA (120m2 trade area) which
would be primarily an ancillary function to the service station for motorists, whilst also meeting
some of the unmet demand for convenience facilities in Cooroy. The location of the subject site
and scale of the proposed development, together with its Highway orientation, is unlikely to
fragment the function of Cooroy.

It should also be noted that while there is overlap; convenience retailing in a service station of
about 195m2 as proposed, would be different to convenience retailing in a larger small-format
supermarket or convenience store such as the proposed Myall St development or the existing
IGA supermarket. The retail offer in a service station would be highly focussed on snacks and
drinks, with some specialist auto related items (e.g. oils, maps, batteries) and a very limited range
of dry goods and personal care products and other goods particularly tailored to motorists such
as mobile phone accessories. The retail offer in a larger convenience store is likely to have fewer
snacks than the service station, more dry goods and personal care products and some fresh
produce.

The fuel retailing function of the service station is the reason for these differences; with the
service station’s clientele almost exclusively car based and likely to be undertaking the vehicle
trip for reasons other than convenience retailing. The convenience retail component is often an
extra to the fuel retailing, tempting the customer into an additional purchase, hence, the higher
proportion of the retail floorspace dedicated to snacks and drinks.


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Typically, non-fuel sales comprise about one quarter of total service station sales. Caltex has
estimated that non-fuel sales at its retail sites now comprise almost 40% of revenue (2011). The
proposed retail space would have the opportunity to increase non-fuel sales while providing for
an array of basic and higher convenience needs for motorists and surrounding residents within a
convenient location. As the proposed development is anticipated to attract a significant amount
of custom from motorists outside of the Trade Area and high volumes of fuel sales, a lower
proportion of convenience turnover has been assumed at the service station, albeit at a stronger
trading rate than a typical convenience outlet of $7,000 to $7,500/m2. On this basis, the ancilliary
convenience store could anticipate sales of approximately $1.4million per annum (2016 dollars)
or 15 to 17% of the proposed service station’s total revenue based on 2016 fuel prices.

The consolidation of fuel retailing facilities in Australia and the high volume, low margin nature
of the industry has necessitated the need for attached convenience stores, car washes and fast-
food outlets to support the viability of providing convenient access to fuel. The 195m² service
station store would primarily cater to the top-up needs and impulse purchases of motorists and
would complement the existing centres hierarchy offering convenience, extended trading hours
and only a limited range of goods. The proposed development would also consolidate a localised
commercial, community and convenience node in a catalyst location for future industrial
development.

Drive-Through Fast-Food

Fast-food outlets with drive-through capabilities require sites on major arterials, preferably
collocated with other facilities such as shopping centres, other fast-food outlets or service
stations.

Whilst the significant majority of drive-through outlets in South East Queensland are McDonald’s,
KFC, Hungry Jack’s or Red Rooster stores, other fast-food players are emerging with drive-
through models as noted in Section 3.1.

Further breakdown of the HES suggests that the average annual takeaway expenditure per
household in the Trade Area is approximately 5.5% of the retail expenditure base or $1,450 in
2016. Multiplied by the number of households, this equates to a total pool of expenditure of $3.5
million spent on takeaway food by Trade Area residents in 2016. Factoring in population growth,
and assuming a constant annual average spend on takeaway food, it is projected that the total
pool of takeaway food expenditure in the Trade Area would increase to $3.9 million by 2021 and
$4.3 million by 2026.

The performances of takeaway outlets vary widely, given this category includes a wide variety of
outlets, from small, individual sandwich shops to major, international fast-food chains.




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As such it is difficult to apply typical turnover productivity levels ($/m 2) in this analysis as a tenant
for the proposed development has not been finalised. However, adopting a broad estimate of
$8,000/m2 for all takeaway outlets suggests that the 2016 takeaway pool of expenditure in the
Trade Area could support some 450m2 of takeaway floorspace. Not all of this floorspace would
or should be located within the Trade Area boundaries, with residents also using premises close
to their place of work, major shopping centres and elsewhere.

Cooroy’s only national takeaway stores are Subway and Eagle Boy’s with numerous smaller
outlets. The Noosa Shire in particular is noted to have a dearth of national fast-food operators
and particularly drive-through facilities, and residents would have limited access to chains at
Noosaville, Coolum or Gympie, where most of this expenditure is currently being directed
together with local takeaways. A drive-through fast-food outlet at the subject site would reduce
travel times to fast food options for Trade Area residents without compromising the ‘village feel’
of the existing Cooroy centre.

As with the fuel retailing and convenience components of the proposed development, there
would be a significant proportion of the turnover of the proposed fast-food outlet derived from
outside the Trade Area boundaries, with motorists combining driving breaks with meal breaks
and residents from elsewhere in the Shire having the option to pick up a meal on the homeward
journey. It is anticipated that some 70-80% of the fast-food turnover at the subject site would
come from outside the Trade Area, ameliorating any impacts on the Cooroy Business Centre.

The floorspace calculations, bolstered by further turnover generated from outside the Trade
Area, suggests that there is sufficient demand for a drive-through fast-food outlet by a national
chain store operator, with the subject site being ideally located.

5.3     DEMAND SUMMARY

Growth in the Trade Area population will generate ongoing demand for conveniently located fuel
retailing facilities that cater to the needs of Cooroy’s motoring community. As outlined in
Chapter 4.0, it is expected that the Trade Area community would generate an above demand for
auto service facilities including fuel retailing.

Furthermore, the subject site presents an opportunity to cater to the substantial volume of
passing motorists utilising the Bruce Highway, and the projected growth in traffic volumes with
the ongoing upgrades of the road network.

The Trade Area community has an existing unmet demand for convenience retail and fast-food
outlets, some of which would be met by the proposed development.

Whilst there is demand for the various components of the proposed development from Trade
Area residents, it is anticipated that 70 to 80% of custom at the subject site would be derived
from motorists travelling along the Bruce Highway.


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6.0 NEED ASSESSMENT
It is Urban Economics’s opinion that there is a strong and compelling need for the proposed
service station and that the proposed development would fill a much needed gap in the provision
of services not only for the Noosa Hinterland community, but also the commuting public and
motorists passing through the Region. The following supports this view:

   a) There is some 60km driving distance between highway fuel retailing. The proposed fuel
      retailing facility would improve convenience and accessibility for Bruce Highway
      motorists.

   b) The high levels of vehicle ownership and commuting nature of the local working
      population, suggests a strong propensity for demand for fuel retailing facilities and auto
      services. The proposed fuel retailing service centre would improve access and
      convenience for motorists and the commuting needs of Trade Area households.

   c) The proposed development would reduce travel times and distances for local residents
      and commuters to access fuel retailing. The proposed development would provide a more
      centralised and convenient service station for motorists and commuting Trade Area
      residents.

   d) There is a gap in the provision of fuel retailing facilities in Cooroy, with existing facilities
      limited by brand (BP) and choice in fuel products such as ethanol based fuel. With both
      existing facilities located on the eastern side of the railway line, and some access
      challenges for these service stations, there is a reduced perception of convenience and
      accessibility. The proposed service station would provide improved convenience and
      accessibility to fuel retailing for not only resident motorists, but also for travellers passing
      through Cooroy, which would otherwise not divert to access facilities within the Business
      Centre.

   e) Ongoing growth in vehicle ownership within the Trade Area will generate increasing
      vehicle consumption of fuel and the need for accessible and convenient fuel retailing
      facilities to cater for Catchment Area motorists. Almost 1,000 additional motor vehicles
      are projected within the Trade Area between 2016 and 2026. Similarly, traffic utilising
      the M1 beyond the Myall St interchange and along Myall Street is projected to increase
      by approximately 2.2% per annum between 2016 and 2026, furthering the need for
      accessible and convenient facilities for motorists.

   f) Neither of the existing BP service stations in Cooroy offer biofuels and may require
      significant upgrades or changed business practices to meet the requirements of the
      mandate; limiting choice to residents and motorists. The proposed development would
      offer a modern operation including biofuel and other options, better meeting the needs
      and choices of consumers.

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g) The proposed development will cater to the mobile lifestyles of the community, which is
   demonstrative of an increasingly time poor community, requiring convenient access to
   facilities with extended trading hours, such as the fuel, convenience and fast-food
   facilities within the proposed development.

h) Modest population growth is projected within the Trade Area, generating demand for
   conveniently located facilities to cater to the needs of this population.

i) The proposed development would offer high levels of accessibility to the emergency and
   last minute needs of the local community, as well as the needs of motorists passing
   through the Region, with the proposed development improving access to branded and
   quality top-up shopping for emergency or immediate needs and a modern destination
   with at-grade parking, amplifying convenience for motorists and local residents.

j) The demand assessment identified shortfalls in the existing supply of convenience
   retailing for the growing Trade Area population. The inclusion of a small convenience
   facility in association with the service station and fast-food outlet, will improve access for
   time poor motorists to chore or last minute goods and services, reducing the need for
   multiple trips on the way home from work, between centres etc.

k) There is limited choice in fast-food operators throughout the Noosa Shire and particularly
   within Cooroy. The subject site and proposed development would provide additional
   choice to residents and passing motorists in a convenient location to access drive-through
   fast-food facilities.

l) Schools within Cooroy draw from broad catchment areas with students accessing the area
   from throughout Cooroy, Pomona, Kin Kin, Black Mountain and Belli Park etc. The
   proposed service would be convenient for these families in providing access to fuel and
   convenience retailing as well as fast-food options around school drop-off and pick-up
   times.




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7.0 IMPACT ASSESSMENT
This impact assessment chapter assesses the proposed development’s potential impacts and
measures them against the existing and future network of centres and competitive facilities.

Impact on Convenience Centres/Centres Network
Convenience retailing in service stations is typically not directly analogous to convenience
supermarket retailing. As discussed in the demand chapter, whilst there would be a small overlap
between retail products in service stations as opposed to convenience supermarkets, there
would also be substantial differences. While service stations would have a higher focus on snacks,
drinks and auto-related products tailored to the needs of motorists, convenience supermarkets
would have more dry and fresh groceries targeted at providing for top-up needs of households.
As a result, any convenience retail associated with a service station on the subject site would
have a lower level of impact on the surrounding network of centres.

The existing centre within the Trade Area is the Cooroy Business Centre. The impact on other
centres within the Noosa Shire such as Tewantin, Noosaville and Noosa Heads are not considered
significant, nor would the proposed development have a significant impact on the Eumundi
centre within the Sunshine Coast Regional Council area.

The nature of service stations is such that the clientele is comprised of a core catchment as well
as a very broad and diffuse rogue catchment, suggesting that the impact of the service station,
including its convenience retailing component, would also be diffused over a wide area, with very
low impacts on individual competitive centres.

The proposed service station would provide only a limited range of goods and is estimated to
have a negligible quantitative impact on the performance of centres in the surrounding network.
In particular, the inclusion of the fast-food outlet at the subject site would reduce the pressure
for this type of development within the Cooroy centre, which does not fit with the village and
visitor nature of the locality, or in dispersed Highway locations that would not offer the level of
convenience for Cooroy residents.

The proposed service station would not have a significant impact on the role, performance or
level in the hierarchy of existing and approved centres in the hierarchy. More particularly, the
proposed convenience store would be ancillary to the fuel retailing facility and would therefore
complement existing centres and provide for unmet needs and a clear gap in the service provision
for residents and motorists.

Impact on Other Service Stations

The distances to any competitive service station with convenient access to the Highway suggest
that the impact upon any individual service station is likely to be low and not a cause for concern.
The nature of the operations of service stations, by default serving a clientele that is undertaking

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a motor vehicle trip, means that the impacts are spread over a wide area. While a station may
have a core catchment, it would also have a broad and diffuse rogue catchment, particularly
those located alongside the Pacific Highway such as the Puma at Kybong and those co-located
with higher order facilities such as the Caltex Woolworths at the Noosa Civic shopping centre. As
such, the impact of the proposed service station upon the existing network of stations would also
be diffused over a wide area, with very low impacts on individual service stations.

Population growth in the Trade Area, projected to be 1.6% p.a. between 2016 and 2026, would
generate further growth in demand for fuel in the Trade Area, as will growth in traffic utilising
the major road network which is estimated to increase by 2.2% p.a. towards 2026; ameliorating
any impact on the BP service stations within Cooroy. It is also noted that these service stations
are older facilities and not oriented to the Bruce Highway like the subject site.

TABLE 7.1 estimates the impact of the proposed development on service stations within and
proximate to the Trade Area, assuming the first full year of trade for the proposed development
to be the 2017/18 financial year.

TABLE 7.1: Impacts on other Service Stations

                                                         Impact       2017/18
                                        2017/18 No                               2017/18      Impact
 Service Station         Suburb                        Distribution    Impact
                                       Proposal (ML)                            w/Proposal      (%)
                                                           (%)          (ML)

 Subject Site            Cooroy              -            100%          5.2        5.2           -
 BP                      Cooroy             2.3            5%           0.3        2.0          11%
 BP (Wessel Petroleum)   Cooroy             2.4            5%           0.3        2.1          11%
 Shell                   Pomona             1.5           2.5%          0.1        1.4          9%
 Caltex                  Pomona             1.2           2.5%          0.1        1.1          11%
 Puma                    Kybong            10.5           25%           1.3        9.2          12%
 BP                      Chevallum          7.0           15%           0.8        6.2          11%
 BP                      Forest Glen        5.0           10%           0.5        4.5          10%
 Other                   Various                          35%           1.8


We would anticipate that the very large Puma service centre at Kybong would experience the
greatest share of the impact from the proposed development given that it is the nearest
northbound facility from the subject site which primarily services passing Highway trade and
would function at an intervening location for northbound motorists. The other identified
Highway service centres at Forest Glen and Chevallum would experience the next greatest
impacts but are not considered significant.

The BP service stations with the Cooroy Business Centre are expected to continue servicing the
needs of the local trade area as well as outbound motorists from Pomona, Tewantin and



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Page 37

Noosaville etc. Impacts on these facilities are anticipated to be ameliorated by population growth
in the Region and the different target markets attracted to the Cooroy centre.

“Other” includes other service stations in surrounding areas and within the network, facilities on
other typical ant-trails of motorists and other facilities outside the local area and would be
distributed amongst a number of facilities and impact on these facilities is not considered
significant.

Impacts are not expected to lead to the closure of any outlets as they maintain their position in
servicing the major road corridors such as the Bruce Highway, Cooroy-Noosa Rd, Eumundi-Noosa
Rd, Myall St and Elm St.

The subject site and proposed development would be the only Highway oriented service station
along a 60km stretch of the M1/A1, with the majority of demand coming from passing motorists
from outside of the defined Trade Area as opposed to other nearby service stations which are
largely reliant upon local trade.

Impact on Industry Land

The proposed development is to be located on industry designated land within the Nandroya
Industrial Estate. According to Economic Development QLD, all lots within this estate are sold or
under application, but remain vacant or utilised for temporary uses. The 8,243m 2 lot comprises
only 12.5% of the total industry land in this estate.

Furthermore, analysis of vacant industrial land in the Mary River Road precinct, has identified a
further 7.83ha of vacant industry land with capacity to absorb industry activity. The use of the
subject site for the proposed development is therefore not considered to have a significant
impact on the supply of industry land.

Moreover, the service station facility would complement the industry and commercial nature of
the Nandroya precinct, providing employment opportunities on-site and offering a convenient
location for workers in the Nandroya Industrial Estate to access top-up or convenience items
including snacks, drinks and takeaway food, improving the overall amenity of the estate for
businesses and workers.

It is Urban Economics’s opinion that the existing network of service stations would comfortably
be able to absorb an additional outlet at the subject site. This impact would be distributed
amongst a number of outlets and a geographically diverse area. More particularly, there is a
clear gap in the provision of fuel retailing, convenience retail and fast-food facilities which are
convenient for residents of the Noosa Hinterland community and motorists of the M1.




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Page 38

8.0 CONCLUSION
The fuel retailing sector is experiencing rapid growth and evolution, underpinned by both
consumer demands and expectations, as well as changing policies influencing supplier response
to service station development and operation. The proposed development will introduce a
modern, convenient and accessible fuel retailing centre to Cooroy, meeting a clear gap in the
provision of fuel retailing for the Bruce Highway motorists and improving convenience and choice
for Cooroy.

There is a clear need for convenient and accessible fuel retailing to meet the needs of the
commuting Cooroy community, with strong levels of vehicle ownership and a propensity for
automotive services including fuel.

The proposed development on the subject site would complement the employment and
economic role of the Nandroya Industrial Estate, and provide a limited array of top-up goods for
the commuting Cooroy community.

The proposed development would have a negligible impact on the existing centres and fuel
retailing network. More particularly, it is Urban Economics’ opinion that the proposed facility
would complement and enhance the network of fuel retailing facilities by improving accessibility
for Bruce Highway motorists.




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