2015-04-07 Item 2 - Attachment 1 - Pre feasibility Study of Electric Bus Routes

period) which allows for a longer term operational comparison of the current
Sunbus diesel bus with both electric bus models.

Financial Model Results
Over the investment horizon of 15 years, the BYD bus has been found to be the
cheapest in terms of upfront purchase costs (Optare +12%). However, the
Optare Solo 10M is likely to be the most cost effective option to run in terms of
maintenance and servicing.
There are marginal differences in fuel efficiency between the two buses, it was
surmised that fuel efficiency is not a good basis to distinguish electric bus
options.
Over the investment horizon of 15 years, the total NPC discounted costs for the
Optare electric bus came to an estimated -$624,849 and -$1,074,230 for BYD. The
total NPC discounted cost per kilometre came to -$0.33 for Optare and -$0.56 for
BYD, respectively. The cost analysis indicates that the Optare solution to be
lower from a total NPC discounted cost and cost per kilometre standpoint.
This outcome is due mainly to the extended operational life of the Optare with a
stated operational life of 25 years as against the BYD at 15 years.

Operational Model Results

The operational model shows discounted fuel savings of $269,866 and $214,049
for Optare and BYD fleet deployment over the standard Sunbus diesel fleet for the
10 year leasing period. However, these savings were not sufficient to offset the
additional operational costs incurred in deployment of electric buses on
Route 627. The charging and scheduling limitations of the electric buses –
requiring an additional bus to be run on the route – make electric bus deployment
an expensive option.

Project Risks

Identified risks for the project include:
   New technology - The introduction of an electric bus brings higher degrees of
   technical and financial uncertainty due to higher up front capital costs combined
   with the implementation of new technologies
   Uncertainty surrounding battery life and the performance
   Uncertainty surrounding “real-world” performance outcomes during the trial
   given location specific variations in ambient temperatures, braking intensity, and
   accommodation of air-conditioning load
   Uncertainty surrounding the Green House Gas (GHG) performance of electric
   vehicles when powered using electricity generated by non-renewable energy
   sources
   Any loss of passenger carrying capacity given final configuration of the chosen
   bus option and capacity to accommodate unexpected fluctuations in route
   demand
   For the above reasons a trial is recommended to test this new technology

Study Recommendations
   Route 627 is recommended to be used as the electric bus trial route




GHD | Proposal for Noosa Council & TransLink Division - Planning Report