MCU14/0106 & OPW15/0001 Appendix B - Retail Needs Response

The rates adopted in the DA report are 1.1% for food and 2.4% for non-food, although there is further
discrimination by product group and also by period. Please note that price deflation is apparent in some
categories, particularly homewares and bulky goods, and hence the rate of ‘real’ growth is often not
readily apparent. The growth rates adopted are summarised as follows (see Table 1.4 below):

Real Per Capita Spending Growth

NOOSA CIVIC MAIN TRADE AREA cccasepsmsatainsiicisninescincsucsiausadienneninceneuilt tle TABLE 1.4
Food Food Home- Bulky Leisure/ Retail Total Non-
Retail Catering Apparel wares Goods Genera; Services Retail Food Food
2014-18 0.9% 1.3% 2.1% 3.1% 2.5% 2.6% 1.7% 1.7% 1.0% 2.5%
2018-21 1.0% 1.4% 2.2% 3.1% 2.6% 2.6% 1.8% 1.8% 1.1% 2.6%
2021-31 1.0% 1.3% 2.1% 2.8% 2.3% 24% 1.7% 1.7% 1.1% 2.3%
2014-2031 1.0% 1.3% 2.1% 2.9% 2.4% 2.5% 1.7% 1.7% 1.1% 2.4%

Source 2 Urb
Source : Urbis

1.4 VISITOR EXPENDITURE

Information request:

‘The Retail Needs Assessment suggests the pool of tourism retail spending in Noosa
(assumed to mean Noosa Heads-Noosaville) would increase by $105 M between 2014 and
2023 but does not provide a base estimate or end year estimate’.

Response:

The Information Request seeks an expanded analysis of available tourism expenditure within the Noosa
Heads-Noosaville area that also provides estimates for 2014, 2018, 2021 and 2031.

Please note that the estimate noted above (see p85 of DA report) is based on ‘a conservative average
tourist spend of $50 per day on retail goods and services....’ As a guide, Tourism Research Australia
estimated average retail spending per visitor night for international tourists at $68 with a lower $58 for
domestic tourists in 2014. These figures are only available at the national level and exclude spending on

package and organised tours.

Table 1.5 below provides a more detailed analysis, adopting the years requested. This more detailed
analysis takes into account average retail expenditure by overnight visitors to Noosa-Noosaville, as
reported by TRA, noting that no per capita ‘real growth’ has been allowed for over the forecast period.
Once again this is a very conservative assumption.

The forecast number of domestic and international visitor nights is as per Chart 5.6 on page 86 of the DA
report, adopting the 2014-2023 forecast average annual growth rate post 2023.

This suggests that retail spending by tourists to Noosa Heads-Noosaville could conservatively increase
by $105 million from 2014-23, and a cumulative $265 between 2014-31, excluding inflation, real per
capita growth, daytrippers and indirect spending through package tours.

Tourism Spend

 

 

NOOSA HEADS/NOOSAVILLE (OVERNIGHT TOURISTS ONLY) TABLE 1.5
Visitor Nights Spend Per Visitor Night_ Total Spend’
No. Growth $ Growth $M Growth — Increase relative
(Million) p.a. p.a. p.a. to 2014 ($M)
2014 20 50 135
2018 3.5 6.6% 50 0.0% 174 6.6% 39
2023 48 6.6% 50 0.0% 240 6.6% 105
0.0% 400 6.6% 265

2031 8.0 6.6%

   

   

URBIS
6 TRADE AREA AND EXPENDITURE NOOSA RESPONSE REPORT - RETAIL ECONOMICS JUNE 2015 V2