MCU14/0106 & OPW15/0001 Appendix B - Retail Needs Response

8 Employment Effects

8.1 NATIONAL ACCOUNTS INPUT-OUTPUT DATA

Information request:

«There has been significant change in industry structures over the past 1 5-20 years....AS
such the estimates based on 1996-97 input-output data are not applicable. More recent
input-output multipliers can be calculated from input-output tables supporting the National
Accounts’.

Response:
Itis acknowledged that more up to date input-output tables are available from the ABS and that there
have been structural changes in the retail market over the period since 1996/97. However, the ABS no

longer publishes |-O multipliers and these would need to be derived/estimated based on the input-output
tables. This is fraught with difficulty and would undoubtedly still be open to challenge.

In our view:

« the likely changes to the multipliers since 1996/97, due to structural changes, would still be within the
margin of error on the estimates published; and

* the published multipliers are at the national level, and consequently their precise influence at the
local level is difficult to ascertain.

For these reasons it should be recognised that the multiplier analysis relating to employment effects in the
DA report is a guide. It is nevertheless true that the proposed expansion:

» will result in the creation of ongoing jobs in the centre;

= these new jobs will create further ‘spin off employment throughout the broader regional and state
economies due to multiplier effects;

= construction of the development will result in construction jobs; and

=» these new jobs will create further ‘spin off employment throughout the broader regional and state
economies due to multiplier effects for a period of time.

In our view the multiplier effects shown in Table 8.8 on page 123 of the DA report are reasonable
estimates and a useful guide, even though structural changes may have resulted in minor changes since
the |-O multipliers were last published by the ABS

URBIS

Ze EMPLOYMENT EFFECTS NOOSA RESPONSE REPORT - RETAIL ECONOMICS JUNE 2015 V2