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MCU14/0106 Appendix K - Commercial Needs Assessment
le Vercial eds essment Prepared for QIC Noosa Civic Pty Ltd December 2014
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URBIS STAFF RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS REPORT WERE: Director Malcolm Aikman Consultant Eve Tan Job Code MPE1-2196 Report Number 1 © Urbis Pty Ltd ABN 50 105 256 228 All Rights Reserved. No material may be reproduced without prior permission. You must read the important disclaimer appearing within the body of this report. URBIS Australia Asia Middle East urbis.com.au
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Executive Summary ...................................................................................................................................iii 1 Introduction ......................................................................................................................................1 1.1 Objectives ..........................................................................................................................................1 1.2 Definitions ..........................................................................................................................................1 1.3 Report Structure ................................................................................................................................1 2 Noosa Civic ......................................................................................................................................3 2.1 Regional Context ...............................................................................................................................3 2.2 Local Context .....................................................................................................................................5 2.2.1 Noosa Shire Business Centre ...........................................................................................................5 2.2.2 The Subject Site – Noosa Civic .........................................................................................................7 3 Noosa Civic Catchment Area .........................................................................................................9 4 Commercial Office Supply Analysis ............................................................................................16 4.1 Sunshine Coast Office Space Supply..............................................................................................16 4.1.1 Maroochydore And Kawana Office Supply ......................................................................................16 4.1.2 Nambour And Caloundra Office Supply ..........................................................................................19 4.1.3 Noosa Civic Catchment Office Supply.............................................................................................19 4.1.4 Other Sunshine Coast Office Locations ..........................................................................................20 4.1.5 Commercial Office Space Supply Summary ...................................................................................21 4.1.6 Proposed Office Market Supply .......................................................................................................21 5 Commercial Office Demand Drivers ............................................................................................24 5.1 Population Growth ...........................................................................................................................24 5.1.1 Regional Population Growth ............................................................................................................24 5.2 Noosa Civic Catchment Population Growth ....................................................................................25 5.2.1 Historic Growth ................................................................................................................................26 5.2.2 Land Release Patterns ....................................................................................................................26 5.2.3 Population Forecasts .......................................................................................................................31 5.3 Labour Force Demand Drivers ........................................................................................................33 5.4 Place Of Work..................................................................................................................................33 5.4.1 Industry Profile Of Local Workers ....................................................................................................34 5.4.2 Occupation Profile Of Local Workers ..............................................................................................35 5.5 White Collar Employment ................................................................................................................35 5.5.1 Office Based White Collar Employment Forecast ...........................................................................36 6 Noosa Civic Office Floor Space Demand Assessment..............................................................38 6.1 Market Share Approach – Method 1................................................................................................38 6.2 Office Floor Space Demand Estimate .............................................................................................39 6.3 Floorspace Demand – Floor Space To Population Ratio Approach ...............................................41 7 Key Findings and Conclusion ......................................................................................................42 7.1 Key Findings ....................................................................................................................................42 7.2 Conclusion .......................................................................................................................................43 Appendix A Urbis Land Use Survey Methodology Appendix B Core Commercial Office Floorspace, Noosa Civic, June 2014 Appendix C White Collar Employment URBIS REP_251114_NOOSA CIVIC COMMERCIAL NEEDS ASSESSMENT FINAL EXECUTIVE SUMMARY i
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i URBIS II executive summary REP_251114_NOOSA CIVIC COMMERCIAL NEEDS ASSESSMENT FINAL
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Executive Summary
This commercial office floor space need and demand assessment report has been prepared to determine
the demand for commercial office floorspace over the period to 2031. It will accompany a Development
Application for the expansion of Noosa Civic.
OFFICE FLOOR SPACE SUPPLY
The estimated total commercial office floor space (including vacancies) across the Sunshine Coast totals
an estimated 225,760 sq.m GFA. This includes approximately 153,169 sq.m as identified by the Property
Council of Australia in the major locations of Maroochydore and Kawana; 25,850 sq.m within the Noosa
Civic catchment; and 50,000 sq.m in the remaining centres of the Sunshine Coast including Nambour and
Caloundra (as outlined in the table below).
Sunshine Coast Current Office Supply
FLOORSPACE – JULY 2014, SQ.M GFA
Floorspace 1 Est. Market
A Grade B Grade C Grade D Grade Total Share (%)
Maroochydore and Kawana (Office) 70,731 55,295 25,643 1,500 153,169 66.9%
Proportion of Total Core Market 46.2% 36.1% 16.7% 1.0%
Noosa Civic Catchment Area (Est. sq.m) 25,852 11.3%
Nambour and others (Est. sq.m) 50,000 21.8%
Total Sunshine Coast Office Supply 229,021 100%
1. Includes to tal co mmercial o ffice sto ck, including vacancies
So urce: QIC ; P ro perty Co uncil o f A ustralia Office M arket Repo rt July 2014 ; Co rdells Co nnect ; Urbis Land Use Survey
OFFICE FLOOR SPACE DEMAND
The major demand drivers for office based white collar floor space have been identified as population
growth and white collar employment growth. Therefore, it is important that these two drivers play primary
roles in floor space forecasts. With this in mind two floor space demand approaches have been
developed to estimate the demand for commercial office floor space at the Noosa Civic. The first method
focuses on the growth in office based white collar workers in the wider Sunshine Coast region and the
Noosa Civic catchment area. The second approach focuses on the forecast population growth for the
Sunshine Coast region and Noosa Civic catchment area.
Noosa Civic currently accounts for around 15% of the supply of office floor space in the catchment. Going
forward the Shire Business Centre (including Noosa Civic) is intended to be a significant location for office
floor space in the Shire. In respect of this we anticipate that Noosa Civic will attract a higher share of the
office floor space demand in the catchment that it currently captures. Subsequently we have applied a
range of market shares from 27%-50% that Noosa Civic may achieve of future office floor space
development in the catchment area. Based on this approach it is estimated that demand for office floor
space at Noosa Civic will range between 4,300 sq.m and 8,000 sq.m between 2013 and 2031.
Applying the commercial office floor space ratio to the forecast population growth for the Noosa Civic
catchment area (method 2) will result in an estimated demand for office floor space for the catchment of
5,050 sq.m over the period from 2013 to 2031. When the Noosa Civic market shares are applied to this
office floor space demand estimate, this generates an office floor space demand range for Noosa Civic
over the period from 2013 to 2031 of 1,360 sq.m to 2,530 sq.m of core commercial office space.
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NOOSA CIVIC MARKET SHARE METHOD 1 – DEMAND FOR METHOD 2 – DEMAND FOR
COMMERCIAL OFFICE SPACE COMMERCIAL OFFICE SPACE
27% Market Share 4,300 sq.m 1,360 sq.m
50% Market Share 8,000 sq.m 2,530 sq.m
Source: Urbis, 2014
CONCLUSION
Whilst it may be sage for Noosa Shire Council to allow for additional land use capacity in a development
area, this needs to be balanced with what is required by the market. In this sense the allowance for land
use needs to be in line with market demand. On this basis it would appear appropriate to allow for
capacity of up to 8,000 sq.m of office floor space in Noosa Civic to 2031.
iv EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
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1 Introduction
QIC Noosa Civic Pty Ltd owns the land on which Noosa Civic is located. This report has been prepared to
accompany a Development Application for the expansion of Noosa Civic. This report investigates the
demand for commercial office floor space at Noosa Civic.
1.1 OBJECTIVES
The specific objectives of this report are to:
determine the future need for commercial office floor space at Noosa Civic over the period to 2031;
compare this to the planning requirement for commercial office floor space at the centre to ascertain
the appropriateness of the planning requirement; and
provide a recommendation on the amount of commercial office floor space that should be provided for
in the future development of the Noosa Civic over the period to 2031.
1.2 DEFINITIONS
There are a number of key terms used in this report for which the following definitions have been applied:
Core Commercial Office Floorspace refers to a facility suitable for conducting commercial business
of an administrative, managerial, clerical, or professional nature. The quantum of commercial office
floorspace for each centre has been estimated based on the Urbis Land Use Survey conducted in
July 2014. This estimate only takes into account core commercial office tenants, which demand
commercial office floor space only.
White Collar Workers are defined by occupation categories and include Professionals, Managers,
Clerical and Administrative workers, Community and Personal Services workers, Education and
Training workers, and Sales workers.
Office Based White Collar Workers are a subset of White Collar workers and include those
occupations that principally work in an office environment.
1.3 REPORT STRUCTURE
This report has been structured to provide a logical progression of research and analysis required to
assess the future need for commercial office floor space at the Noosa Civic over the period to 2031. This
is reflected in the following chapter structure:
Section 1 Introduction: Provides a background to the report and an outline of the report’s purpose.
Section 2 - Noosa Civic: Provides an overview of the location and local and regional context of the
subject site
Section 3 Noosa Civic Commercial Catchment Area: This section identifies the appropriate
catchment area for this assessment.
Section 4 Commercial Office Supply Analysis: Reviews and analyses the supply considerations
influencing the office market in the catchment area.
Section 5 Commercial Office Demand Drivers: Reviews and analyses the demand factors
influencing the Noosa Civic catchment office market.
Section 6 Noosa Civic Office Floorspace Demand Assessment: Provides an assessment of the
future commercial office space requirements within the Noosa Shire Business Centre.
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Section 7 Key Findings and Recommendations: The final section of this report summarises the
key findings and provides recommendations in relation to the amount of office floor space to be
provided for at Noosa Civic.
2 ERROR! NO TEXT OF SPECIFIED STYLE IN DOCUMENT.
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2 Noosa Civic Noosa Civic forms part of the Noosa Shire Business Centre which is identified as the highest order activity centre within the Noosa Shire by the Noosa Shire Council, as per the Noosa Plan. This section provides a regional and local context for Noosa Civic as a basis for analysis and assessment of the supply and demand factors for commercial office space at the centre. 2.1 REGIONAL CONTEXT The Noosa Shire local government area (LGA) is situated approximately 120 km north of Brisbane at the northern end of the Sunshine Coast and the large region often referred to as South East Queensland (SEQ). The Shire is characterised by high levels of tourism and is also a popular market for retirees. As a result, the primary drivers of economic growth have historically been the retail, health and tourism sectors. In March 2013 Noosa Shire separated from the broader Sunshine Coast Regional Council. The Noosa Shire Council is now bordered by the Gympie Regional Council to the north and east and the Sunshine Coast Regional Council to the south. The location of the Sunshine Coast and Noosa Shire LGAs, in comparison to the Brisbane Central Business District (CBD) are outlined in Map 2.1 overleaf. This map also illustrates the activity centre designations as outlined within the South East Queensland Regional Plan (SEQRP), 2009-2031. After the Brisbane CBD, the highest order centres are Principal Regional Activity Centres, and on the north side these are located at Chermside, Caboolture and Maroochydore. Maroochydore is located approximately 27 km south of Noosa (~30 minutes’ drive), and is the closest Principal Regional Activity Centre. Major Regional Activity Centres are the next highest order Activity Centre in the centres network. There are seven Major Regional Activity Centres situated within the Sunshine Coast and Noosa LGAs, including Beerwah, Caloundra South, Caloundra, Kawana, Sippy Downs, Nambour and Noosa – which is the only designated activity centre within the Noosa Shire. The next closest Major Regional Activity Centre is located at Nambour, approximately 30 km south (~30 minutes’ drive) of Noosa. URBIS REP_251114_NOOSA CIVIC COMMERCIAL NEEDS ASSESSMENT FINAL NOOSA CIVIC 3
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NOOSA SHIRE COUNCIL – REGIONAL CONTEXT MAP 2.1
4 NOOSA CIVIC
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2.2 LOCAL CONTEXT As indicated previously, the Noosa Shire Business Centre is the highest order centre situated within the Noosa Shire. The Noosa Shire Business Centre includes Noosa Civic, and therefore the subject site. The following sub-section provides a review of the local context, specifically the locational attributes of the subject site, and the usage patterns of Noosa Civic. 2.2.1 NOOSA SHIRE BUSINESS CENTRE The Noosa Shire Business Centre is an area comprising approximately 70.5 hectares and is located to the south of Eenie Creek Road and the west of Walter Hay Drive in Noosaville. The centre is divided into 19 precincts in the Council’s Map for the site, with each one designated for a particular purpose (refer Map 2.2). The existing Noosa Civic is located within precincts B1 and B3 Business (Retail Centre and Business) and B2 Business (Car Parking and Offices). The majority of the subject site on which the Noosa Civic expansion is to be located is designated E1 (Employment). According to the Noosa Plan, the Noosa Shire Business Centre is intended to be the highest level activity centre in Noosa Shire. The site is within a few kilometres of secondary activity centres such as the Tewantin business centre (2 km north west), Noosaville business centre (2 km north-east) and Noosa Junction business centre (4.5 km north-east). An overview of the boundaries of the Noosa Shire Business Centre and the specific location of Noosa Civic within the broader designation is outlined in Map 2.3.Noosa Civic is the major use within the Noosa Shire Business Centre precinct, with the balance of the land currently undeveloped. The precinct also adjoins the Noosaville industrial estate, which is located to the immediate west, north- west and north of the site, concentrated along Eumundi Road, Rene Street and Lionel Donovan Drive. The Noosa Waters Canal estate is situated to the north of the site, beyond which is the urban residential area of Noosaville, which extends to the Noosa River. URBIS REP_251114_NOOSA CIVIC COMMERCIAL NEEDS ASSESSMENT FINAL NOOSA CIVIC 5
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DISTRIBUTION OF CONSISTENT USES, NOOSA SHIRE BUSINESS CENTRE MAP 2.2
6 NOOSA CIVIC
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THE NOOSA SHIRE BUSINESS CENTRE, LOCAL CONTEXT MAP 2.3
2.2.2 THE SUBJECT SITE – NOOSA CIVIC
Noosa Civic is situated at 28 Eenie Creek Road in Noosaville, and, as previously mentioned, it is currently
the largest single development within the Noosa Shire Business Centre.
It also has a relatively central location to the major population centres of Noosaville and Tewantin, and is
accessible for residents further east via Eenie Creek Road. The other key centres in Noosa are outlined
in the Map 2.4.
ACCESSIBILITY
Access to Noosa Civic is mainly via Eenie Creek Road which connects with a number of major roads
which serve the Noosa Heads, Sunshine Beach and Tewantin areas, as well as the coastal and rural
centres located further south and west. Connections to major arterial networks, such as the Bruce
Highway and Sunshine Motorway, are also in relatively close proximity.
In terms of public transport access, Noosa Civic includes a bus stop which is located between the two
main entries to the shopping centre. The centre is serviced by Translink, which has connections to
Maroochydore, Tewantin and Noosa Heads.
NOOSA CIVIC COMMERCIAL USES
There are approximately 5,000 sq.m of Commercial/Business uses at Noosa Civic. These uses can be
split into two main categories – core commercial office uses and non-retail business uses.
Core Commercial Uses: The core commercial office space is situated to the east of the shopping
centre and fronts the internal ring road. These uses typically demand office space. It currently
comprises around 3,106 sq.m of floorspace and includes tenants such as Noosa Newspaper,
AngliCare, Centrelink, Medicare, IT services, and an employment service office. Currently, there are
five commercial office vacancies which total approximately 800 sq.m.
Non-Retail Business Uses: Non-retail business uses are made up of banks and comprise around 840
sq.m of floorspace.
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LOCAL CONTEXT – NOOSA REGION AND OTHER KEY CENTRES MAP 2.4
8 NOOSA CIVIC
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3 Noosa Civic Catchment Area
The catchment area for a commercial office centre is influenced by a number of factors including:
The hierarchy of the centre within the broader regional network of centres including its scale, role,
quality of commercial accommodation, and supporting facilities (particularly major land uses such as
retail facilities);
Competing centres in terms of scale, proximity, and the commercial role they play;
Current and future accessibility to the centre for workers, particularly in terms of the road network and
public transport provision;
Topographical and physical features of the region which may impede or facilitate travel to the centre
from particular areas;
Visitation patterns of residents, workers, and visitors to the centre. In this instance primary and
secondary research includes ABS Census data on Journey to Work patterns and Consumer
Research undertaken by Urbis (December 2012).
At the Major Regional Activity Centre level in non-metropolitan areas, commercial office centre
catchments have strong similarities to retail centre trade areas. This includes the application of the
majority of factors identified above. Urbis is also undertaking a retail needs assessment for Noosa Civic
and has identified a trade area for the centre based on these factors.
The Noosa Civic catchment area, including the categorisation of primary and secondary segments
supporting the Noosa Civic uses is described below and depicted on the following map.
The primary catchment area encompasses the suburbs of Noosaville, Tewantin and Doonan.
The secondary north east sector is geographically the smallest of the catchment area sectors. It
incorporates the coastal suburbs of Noosa Heads, Sunshine Beach, Sunrise Beach, Castaways
Beach and the northern portion of Peregian Beach.
The secondary south east sector is a narrow strip between the coastline and Sunshine Motorway
extending from Peregian Beach in the north to Mount Coolum in the south. Geographical barriers
such as Lake Weyba and Noosa National Park restrict access to Noosa Civic for these residents.
The secondary south sector extends east to the Sunshine Motorway and west to the Sunshine
Coast hinterland incorporating parts of the suburbs of Peregian Beach, Coolum Beach, Eumundi and
Ridgewood.
The secondary north west sector incorporates the small townships of Cooroy and Pomona and
rural areas to the northwest of Noosa. It covers the largest geographical region of all the catchment
area sectors.
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NOOSA CIVIC CATCHMENT AREA MAP 3.1
10 NOOSA CIVIC CATCHMENT AREA
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In order to test the application of this catchment area for the commercial office assessment an analysis of
worker travel patterns has been set which has been sourced from the Australian Bureau of Statistics
Journey to Work Data from the 2011 Census.
As part of the Census of Population and Housing, the Australia Bureau of Statistics (ABS) collects journey
to work data. This data shows how people get to and from work (i.e. mode of transport) as well as the
location of their home and their workplace. The usual residence of workers is collected at an SA1 level,
the smallest geographical boundaries for which statistical information regarding demographics are
released by the ABS, The smallest geography for the place of work data is the Destination Zone (DZN)
level. The ABS defined DZN boundaries nest into the Noosa Civic catchment with three exceptions.
Thus the DZN catchment that identifies the place of work differs slightly from the commercial catchment
area. The differences are listed below.
Two DZNs in the Nambour-Pomona area, which have been included in the catchment area for place
of work, are not completely covered by the north west and south west secondary sectors.
One DZN in the Sunshine Coast Hinterland area, which the secondary south west sector encroaches
onto, is not included in the catchment area for place of work.
One DZN in the Gympie-Cooloola area which the secondary south west sector encroaches onto is
not included in the catchment area for place of work.
An illustration of the DZNs used as compared to the boundaries of the catchment area is provided below
in Map 3.2 overleaf.
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DZNS INCLUDED IN THE CATCHMENT AREA ANALYSIS MAP 3.2
12 NOOSA CIVIC CATCHMENT AREA
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In the 2011 Census, approximately 30,500 employed residents of the Noosa SA3 provided information on
their working location. The Noosa SA3 essentially represents a sub regional Statistical Area Level (SA
Level) and was home to around 35,000 residents in 2011. It extends from Peregian Beach South in the
south to Noosa Heads in the north, and from the Coral Sea in the east to Lake Weyba, and Tewantin
Forest in the west. A breakdown of the place of work is provided in Table 3.1 below. Of the employed
Noosa SA3 residents, a large proportion was employed within the Noosa SA3 region which suggests that
the region comprises a relatively high employment containment ratio. Other regions that experienced high
levels of employment include Nambour-Pomona SA3 and the Maroochy SA3. Traditionally, these centres
comprise higher order and more diverse employment opportunities such as a major hospital, health
facilities and government based services.
Respondents who did not provide adequate information to determine their working location, or have no
fixed place of work are not included in this analysis.
Place of Work, SA3 Boundaries
NOOSA CIVIC CATCHMENT AREA RESIDENTS, 2011 TABLE 3.1
1
Area Number Percentage
Noosa 12,210 46%
Nambour - Pomona 6,920 26%
Maroochy 4,050 15%
Buderim 1,140 4%
Caloundra 650 2%
2
Brisbane 310 1%
Gympie - Cooloola 530 2%
Sunshine Coast Hinterland 280 1%
Bowen Basin - North 150 1%
Nundah 80 0%
Other 470 2%
Total 26,790 100%
Excl. Qld undefined/no fixed address 3,720
1. Within the state o f Queensland o nly
2. Includes place o f wo rk 'capital city undefined'
So urce : A B S Census o f P o pulatio n & Ho using 2011; Urbis
Of those residents who work within the Noosa SA3 region, a large proportion (4,910 or 40%) work within
the Noosaville SA2 region which is reflective of the employment areas located within this area (such as
the Noosa Shire Business Centre, the Noosaville Business Centre and Noosaville Industrial Estate). Just
over one quarter of the residents within the Noosa SA3 region work within the Noosa Heads SA2 region,
whilst Tewantin, Peregian and Sunshine Beach make up the balance.
The employment containment ratio is a measure that looks at the proportion of catchment residents who
work locally – that is, the proportion of local jobs to the local resident workforce. Generally, the highest
levels of self-containment are found in regional towns and rural areas where the distances to employment
opportunities mean that commuting to another town or major urban area is a disincentive.
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Employment Containment
NOOSA CIVIC CATCHMENT, 2011 TABLE 3.2
Area Number Percentage
Within Catchment 18,860 70.4%
1
Outside of Catchment 7,930 29.6%
Total 26,790
Excl. Qld undefined/no fixed address 3,720
1. Includes place of work 'capital city undefined'
Source : ABS Census of Population & Housing 2011 ; Urbis
Around 12,200 (65%) of the 18,860 catchment residents who work in the catchment work within the
Noosa SA3. Of the 12,200 workers, 4,910 (or 40%) work within the Noosaville SA2 which is reflective of
the employment areas located within this area (eg Noosa Shire Business Centre, the Noosaville Business
Centre and Noosaville Industrial Estate). The Noosaville SA2 (Statistical Area Level 2) is a subset of the
the larger Noosa SA3 and principally includes the urban area of Noosaville. Clearly the Noosaville area is
of significance as an employment hub within the Shire.
Just over one quarter of the residents within the catchment work within the Noosa Heads SA2, whilst
Tewantin, Peregian and Sunshine Beach make up the balance
Place of Work within Noosa
NOOSA CIVIC CATCHMENT AREA RESIDENTS, 2011 TABLE 3.3
SA2 Number Percentage
Noosaville 4,910 40%
Noosa Heads 3,170 26%
Tewantin 1,820 15%
Peregian 1,220 10%
Sunshine Beach 1,080 9%
Total 12,200 100%
Source : ABS Census of Population & Housing 2011 ; Urbis
The location of employment of catchment area residents who are employed outside of the Noosa Civic
catchment is provided in below. It is estimated that around 29% of these residents are employed in the
Nambour-Pomona SA3 and a further 25% in the Maroochy SA3. These SA3’s contain the higher order
centres of Nambour and Maroochydore which provide greater diversity of employment opportunities,
including the Nambour Public Hospital and Sunshine Coast Council offices in Nambour.
Place of Work SA3
CATCHMENT RESIDENTS EMPLOYED OUTSIDE OF THE
CATCHMENT, 2011 TABLE 3.4
Area Number Percentage
Nambour - Pomona 2,300 29%
Maroochy 2,020 25%
Buderim 1,140 14%
Caloundra 650 8%
Gympie - Cooloola 530 7%
1
Brisbane 310 4%
Sunshine Coast Hinterland 280 4%
Other 700 9%
Total 7,930 100%
1. Includes place of work 'capital city undefined'
Source : ABS Census of Population & Housing 2011 ; Urbis
14 NOOSA CIVIC CATCHMENT AREA
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These findings indicate that the Noosa SA3 region provides a significant proportion of its working residents with employment opportunities. Those who leave the area for employment are generally attracted to higher order centres and/or employment opportunities with government and in a public health institution. On this basis, the identified commercial office catchment area outlined in Map 3.1 for Noosa Civic is regarded as being an appropriate catchment area for the centre for its role as a commercial office centre. URBIS REP_251114_NOOSA CIVIC COMMERCIAL NEEDS ASSESSMENT FINAL NOOSA CIVIC CATCHMENT AREA 15
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4 Commercial Office Supply Analysis
The Sunshine Coast commercial office market is dominated by the centres of Maroochydore and Kawana
and supported by a range of smaller local centres. This section provides an overview of current and
proposed commercial office space supply situated within the Noosa Civic catchment area and broader
Sunshine Coast local government area.
4.1 SUNSHINE COAST OFFICE SPACE SUPPLY
The main office market on the Sunshine Coast has traditionally been centred on the Maroochydore
centre, with the relatively recent development of Kawana forming the second major office market on the
Coast. Scattered office offerings also exist across the Noosa, Caloundra and Nambour centres, with
office developments generally limited in supply and size compared to the major centres. There is also a
range of small office floor space provision across a number of smaller Sunshine Coast centres. The scale
of office floor space across these centres on the Sunshine Coast is outlined below.
4.1.1 MAROOCHYDORE AND KAWANA OFFICE SUPPLY
The Property Council of Australia undertakes a regular estimate of office floor space in South East
Queensland which covers the Brisbane CBD, Brisbane Inner areas, Chermside, Mt Gravatt, the Trade
Coast/Brisbane Airport, the Gold Coast and the Sunshine Coast. The office market report is based on
office surveys, discussions with real estate agents, developers and building construction records. The
office floor space estimates for the Sunshine Coast only include the centres of Maroochydore and
Kawana.
As at July 2014 the PCA estimated that the centres of Maroochydore and Kawana contained 153,169
sq.m of commercial office floor space. Of this floor space, the Kawana commercial centre accounted for
around 49,000 sq.m (32%), and the Maroochydore centre around 105,000 sq.m (68%).
Current Office Space Supply
MAJOR SUNSHINE COAST OFFICE MARKET TABLE 4.1
GFA
Develoment Name (Sq.m) Suburb Key Insights
Secondary Office market on the Coast. Relatively new
Kawana Commercial
48,667 Kawana compared to the Maroochydore market. Still experiencing
Centre
teething problems due to new precinct perceptions
Strongest performing and most established office market
on the Coast. Displays significantly less vacancy than
Kawana, with stronger rents and greater NLA. Appears
Maroochydore Centre 104,502 Maroochydore
more desirable by tenants due to its central location within
the Sunshine Coast, with better supporting infrastructure
and a strong business base.
So urce: Co rdells Co nnect ; Sunshine Co ast Co uncil ; P ro pery Co uncil o f A ustralia ; Urbis
The overall stock level for the Maroochydore and Kawana centres has decreased over the last year by
around 700 sq.m and currently has a combined vacancy rate of 12.3%, equivalent to 18,812 sq.m of
office floor space. A review of the historic supply and demand parameters as outlined in the PCA Office
Market Report are outlined in the following sections.
SUNSHINE COAST COMMERCIAL – SUPPLY AND VACANCY
Although the vacancy rate has seen a slight fall since the same period last year (recording 14.1%), the
current rate is substantially up on July 2008 vacancy rates of 6.8% (refer Chart 4.1).
16 COMMERCIAL OFFICE SUPPLY ANALYSIS
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It is important to note, however, that the reporting history of these figures has been quite short
commencing in 2008, with 2008 being the beginning of economic instability caused by the global financial
crisis (GFC). Over the period July 2008 to July 2011, around 26,800 sq.m of commercial office space
entered the market whilst demand for space slowed. Vacancy rates topped out at 16.3% in January 2010
as significant supply entered the market at a time of weak demand following the GFC.
The current stock proportioning across the Kawana and Maroochydore commercial markets comprise A
grade stock of 46%, B grade stock of 36%, C grade stock of 17% and D grade stock of 1%.
Sunshine Coast Commercial Supply (Maroochydore and Kawana)
SUPPLY AND VACANCY JULY 2014 CHART 4.1
180,000 18%
Total Stock (sq.m) Total Vacancy Factor (%)
160,000 16%
140,000 14%
Total Stock (sq.m)
120,000 12%
100,000 10%
80,000 8%
60,000 6%
40,000 4%
20,000 2%
0 0%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
So urce: P ro perty Co uncil o f A ustralia Office M arket Repo rt July 2014 ; Urbis
SUNSHINE COAST COMMERCIAL OFFICE SUPPLY – BY GRADE
Over the seven year Sunshine Coast office market survey period, the greatest growth has occurred in A
and B grade stock. A grade stock has increased at a relatively strong rate of 8% per annum or an
average of 4,372 sq.m each year. B grade stock has increased at a similarly strong rate of 8.3% per
annum or an average of 3,508 sq.m each year. Limited or negative growth has occurred in the C and D
grade office stock over this period reflecting a maturing and increase in overall quality of office floor space
on the Sunshine Coast (refer Chart 4.2).
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Sunshine Coast Commercial Supply
SUPPLY BY OFFICE SPACE GRADE, JULY 2014 CHART 4.2
160,000 1,500 1,500
D Grade C Grade 1,500
B Grade A Grade
140,000 2,350 2,350 26,343 25,643
26,343
2,350
120,000 26,343 26,343
2,350
Total Stock (Sq.m)
25,429
100,000 55,295 55,295
25,429 50,126
80,000 50,846 50,846
48,323
60,000 34,245
40,000
68,326 70,731 70,731
53,790 53,790
20,000 44,502 44,318
0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
So urce: P ro perty Co uncil o f A ustralia Office M arket Repo rt July 2014 ; Urbis
SUNSHINE COAST COMMERCIAL OFFICE SPACE – NET ABSORPTION
A characteristic of the major office markets on the Sunshine Coast over the past 6 years has been a
significant fluctuation in the net absorption of office space and the office market vacancy rate. On average
the major Sunshine Coast office markets have absorbed around 5,900 sq.m per annum over the past six
years. This has varied from a low of 2,185 sq.m over the last 12 months to a high of 12,257 sq.m in 2012.
Vacancy rates remain high in the major Sunshine Coast office markets currently sitting at around 12.3%,
equivalent to 18,812 sq.m of office floor space. This has fluctuated over the past six years from a low of
7,364 sq.m in 2008 to a high of 21,868 sq.m in 2010 (refer Chart 4.3)
Sunshine Coast Commercial Supply
NET ABSORBTION AND VACANCY RATES JULY 2014 CHART 4.3
25,000
Net Absorption (sq.m) 21,868 21,697
Total Vacancy (sq.m) 19,836
19,127 18,812
20,000
Total Stock (Sq.m)
15,000 13,231
12,257
10,000
7,364 8,027
5,713
5,000 4,272
2,741
2,185
0
0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
So urce: P ro perty Co uncil o f A ustralia Office M arket Repo rt July 2014 ; Urbis
18 COMMERCIAL OFFICE SUPPLY ANALYSIS
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4.1.2 NAMBOUR AND CALOUNDRA OFFICE SUPPLY Nambour and Caloundra are not recognised as significant office markets by the Property Council of Australia. They are identified as Major Regional Activity Centres in the South East Queensland Regional Plan which is reflected in their roles accommodating government offices. This includes regional offices for the Sunshine Coast Council in both centres. Office floor space estimates for these two centres have been based on previous site inspections undertaken by Urbis; research by the Property Council of Australia; desk top analysis of aerial and street photography, and land use data from Price Finder. This research has estimated the office floor space supply for these two centres as shown in the following table. Sunshine Coast Commercial Supply NAMBOUR AND CALOUNDRA OFFICE FLOOR SPACE – JULY 2014 TABLE 4.2 CENTRE OFFICE FLOOR SPACE (GFA) Nambour 25,000 sq.m Caloundra 20,000 sq.m Source: Urbis, 2014 4.1.3 NOOSA CIVIC CATCHMENT OFFICE SUPPLY The identified catchment area for Noosa Civic incorporates Noosa Civic, four other major Business Centres (including Noosa Junction, Noosaville, Tewantin, and Cooroy) as well as a series of minor locations across the area. The commercial office floorspace data in this section has been estimated based on a land use survey of each centre by Urbis in July 2014, a review of industry documents such as the Property Council of Australia Shopping Centre Database, aerial photographs released by NearMap, as well as publicly available investment memorandums that detail the tenancy schedule and floorspace provisions in centres that have been listed for sale. This survey identified office type premises consistent with the nominated ANZSIC industry classifications and the Property Council of Australia survey and represent core commercial office space which demands commercial office floor space only. It is important to note that the results of the land use survey are estimates only. A detailed explanation of the land use survey methodology is contained in Appendix A. The table below identifies the current office space supply within the Noosa Civic commercial catchment area by location. The estimate of floorspace relates to core commercial office floorspace only which typically require office space. URBIS REP_251114_NOOSA CIVIC COMMERCIAL NEEDS ASSESSMENT FINAL COMMERCIAL OFFICE SUPPLY ANALYSIS 19
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Core Commercial Office Floorspace Estimation by Centre
NOOSA CIVIC CATCHMENT AREA, JULY 2014 TABLE 4.3
Occupied Vacant Total Office Space Vacancy Rate
GLA GLA GLA GLA
Noosa (Sq.m) (Sq.m) (Sq.m) (%)
1
Noosa Civic 3,106 816 3,922 20.8%
Noosa Junction 3,790 1,139 4,929 23.1%
Noosa Outlook Centre 80 0 80 0.0%
Noosaville 4,125 390 4,515 8.6%
Quamby Place 700 0 700 0.0%
Sunshine Beach 20 0 20 0.0%
Tewantin 6,010 260 6,270 4.1%
Total Noosa 17,831 2,605 20,436 12.7%
Other Precincts
Coolum 991 0 991 0.0%
Cooran 45 0 45 0.0%
Cooroy 2,289 80 2,369 3.4%
Eumundi 413 108 521 20.7%
Peregian 894 360 1,254 28.7%
Pomona 126 110 236 46.6%
Total Other 4,758 658 5,416 12.1%
2
Total - Noosa Civic Catchment Area 22,589 3,263 25,852 12.6%
1. Octo ber 2014 Data - co nsists o f M ach Techo no lo gy, Emplo yment Services QLD, A nglicare Sth QLD, Campbell P age, CentreLink,
M cCallum Jenkins Lawyers, Sunshine Co ast Newspaper, No o sa B o ardro o m, Dept o f Ho using and P ublic Wo rks, Stellar Co nveyancing,
NA B A dministratio n and P iper Digital M arketing
2. So me to tals may no t equal the sum o f their parts due to ro unding.
So urce: QIC ; Urbis Land Use Survey July 2014
The key points to note in relation to the supply of office floor space in the Noosa Civic catchment area are
as follows:
The total core commercial office floor space within the total Noosa Civic catchment area is estimated
to be approximately 25,850 sq.m. This figure contains around 3,260 sq.m of vacant floorspace, which
represents a vacancy rate of around 12.6%. This vacancy rate is around the same as the PCA
estimate for the major office markets of Maroochydore and Kawana of 12.3% and reflects a similar
balance between office space demand and supply to the major Sunshine Coast markets.
The quantum of core commercial office space that is currently at Noosa Civic has been provided by
QIC and is outlined in Appendix B. As of October 2014, there was around 3,920 sq.m of core
commercial office space at Noosa Civic, including 816 sq.m of vacant floorspace. This represents a
vacancy rate of approximately 20.8%.
Including vacancies, Noosa Civic accounts for around 15% of the total quantum of core commercial
office space in the Noosa Civic catchment area.
Outside of Noosa Civic, core commercial office floorspace is located within the Noosa Junction,
Noosaville and Tewantin Business Centres. Of these, Noosa Junction has the highest vacancy rate
(23.1%)
4.1.4 OTHER SUNSHINE COAST OFFICE LOCATIONS
To account for office floor space across smaller locations in the Sunshine Coast including Mooloolaba,
Landsborough and Beerwah, an estimate of 5,000 sq.m has been included in the overall regional supply
of office space. This is based on site inspections and aerial and street level photography.
20 COMMERCIAL OFFICE SUPPLY ANALYSIS
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4.1.5 COMMERCIAL OFFICE SPACE SUPPLY SUMMARY
The estimated office floor space across the Sunshine Coast, totals 225,760 sq.m GFA. This includes
153,169 sq.m as identified by the PCA in the major locations of Maroochydore and Kawana, 25,852 sq.m
within the Noosa Civic catchment area and 50,000 sq.m in the remaining centres of the Sunshine Coast,
including Nambour and Caloundra (as outlined in Table 4.4 below).
Sunshine Coast Current Office Supply
FLOORSPACE – JULY 2014 – SQ M GFA TABLE 4.4
Floorspace 1 Est. Market
A Grade B Grade C Grade D Grade Total Share (%)
Maroochydore and Kawana (Office) 70,731 55,295 25,643 1,500 153,169 66.9%
Proportion of Total Core Market 46.2% 36.1% 16.7% 1.0%
Noosa Civic Catchment Area (Est. sq.m) 25,852 11.3%
Nambour and others (Est. sq.m) 50,000 21.8%
Total Sunshine Coast Office Supply 229,021 100%
1. Includes to tal co mmercial o ffice sto ck, including vacancies
So urce: QIC ; P ro perty Co uncil o f A ustralia Office M arket Repo rt July 2014 ; Co rdells Co nnect ; Urbis Land Use Survey
When examining the overall Sunshine Coast office floor space supply a number of key factors become
apparent:
The Kawana and Maroochydore office centres represent approximately 67% of the total Sunshine
Coast market. Of this stock, around 82% of the market is made up of A and B grade office product,
highlighting the dominance of this type of office accommodation in these locations.
The Noosa Civic catchment accounts for approximately 11% of the Sunshine Coast office floor space
market.
Other centres outside the Noosa Civic catchment and major locations of Maroochydore and Kawana,
account for around 22% of the regional office market.
4.1.6 PROPOSED OFFICE MARKET SUPPLY
Estimates on planned and proposed office floor space supply for the Sunshine Coast region have been
derived from the Cordells Construction data base; discussions with active commercial developers on the
Sunshine Coast; and State and Local Government planning documents. Based on this information, future
office floor space supply by time periods for the Sunshine Coast region are presented in the following
table.
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Proposed Office Space Supply
KEY OFFICE MARKETS ON THE SUNSHINE COAST TABLE 4.5
GFA Project
Develoment Name (Sq.m) Suburb Timeframe Status Key Insights
MAROOCHYDORE - CURRENT PROPOSALS TO 2026
Construction of 12 storey commercial
building. To include 100 sq.m restaurant &
536 sq.m retail space on ground floor, 550
1st Ave Mixed Used 4,407 Maroochydore 2015 Deferred
sq.m medical centre on 1st floor, 10 levels of
offices above. 2 & 3 bedroom units on top
floor.
Proposed construction of 6 storey commercial
Kon-Tiki Commercial 18,943 Maroochydore 2014-2016 Possible
building.
Construction of 6 storey commercial building
Central One 9,424 Maroochydore 2015-2018 Deferred with 1,435 sq.m retail space on ground floors
& 9,424 sq.m office space above in 2 stages.
The Emporio complex is a mixed use
Emporio Complex 12,200 Maroochydore 2015 - 2018 Deferred development comprising Retail, Commercial
and Residential uses.
LONG TERM MAROOCHYDORE VISION (2026+)
Master planning of new City Business District
for the Sunshine Coast. Redevelopment of
Maroochydore City the former Horton Park Golf Club to provide
150,000 Maroochydore 2015 - 2040 Planning
Centre 1 65,000sqm retail, 150,000sqm commercial
floor space, minimum of 2,000 residential
dwellings & civic, cultural & learning centre.
OTHER SUNSHINE COAST COMMERCIAL OFFICE PRECINCTS
Proposed construction of 6 storey office
Sippy Downs Drive 16,134 Sippy Downs 2014-2016 Deferred
building and Town Centre.
Kawana Town
82,250 Kawana 2014-2026 Deferred Proposed Town Centre
Centre
Proposed Cloundra South Town Centre for a
Caloundra South 47,200 Caloundra South 2014-2026 Possible
total of 59,000 sqm for 2026+
TOTAL (Before
2 190,558 Sq.m
2026)
3
TOTAL (2026+) 307,384 Sq.m
1. Inclusive o f M aro o chydo re Current P ro po sals
2. To tal flo o rspace befo re 2026 includes M aro o chydo re pro jects and Other Sunshine Co ast Co mmercial Office P recincts that are currently pro po sed.
3. To tal flo o rspace 2026+ includes the entirety o f the flo o rspace that is pro po sed within the M aro o chydo re City Centre - that is, 150,000 sq.m and the pro po sals within
the Other Sunshine Co ast Co mmercial Office P recincts
So urce: P ro perty Co uncil o f A ustralia, Office M arket Repo rt July 2014 ; Co rdells Co nnect ; Sunshine Co ast Co uncil ; Urbis
The table above details the planned and proposed future office supply on the Sunshine Coast. This is
anticipated to reflect:
A total of 190,560 sq.m proposed new supply of commercial office floor space between 2014 and
2026. This floorspace includes those commercial office projects that are currently proposed within
Maroochydore as well as the proposals within other Sunshine Coast commercial office centres. On a
22 COMMERCIAL OFFICE SUPPLY ANALYSIS
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short term basis, the majority of the future commercial office space has been proposed for the
Kawana Town Centre which has around 82,250 sq.m in various stages of planning and development.
A total of 307,384 sq.m of additional office floor space supply for the period beyond 2026. This
floorspace takes into account the entirety of the proposed commercial office floorspace within
Maroochydore City Centre as well as the proposals within other Sunshine Coast commercial centres.
Under this longer term scenario, it is expected that the Maroochydore City Centre area would
comprise the greatest amount of commercial office space with around 150,000 sq.m proposed.
It is important to note that the future floorspace figure of 150,000 sq.m takes into account current
commercial office proposals (pre 2026) situated within Maroochydore.
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5 Commercial Office Demand Drivers
The demand for commercial office floor space is driven by a number of factors. Principally these are:
Population growth – both locally and regionally;
The regional labour force profile (including participation and employment rates) and growth; and
Office based white collar employment growth (including trends towards higher white collar
employment rates).
5.1 POPULATION GROWTH
The local and regional population growth can influence the demand for office floor space in a location
depending on the significance of the office location and its position and role in the regional centre
network. Both regional and local population growth are reviewed in this assessment as drivers for the
demand for office floor space in the Noosa Civic catchment area.
5.1.1 REGIONAL POPULATION GROWTH
The Sunshine Coast region has been one of the fastest growing areas in the country over the past
decade. The Sunshine Coast had an estimated residential population of around 330,500 in June 2013
(refer Table 5.1). Between 2001 and 2006, the region experienced population growth of 3.3% per annum,
compared with the Australian average annual growth rate of 1.2% across the same timeframe. Growth
slowed between 2006 and 2011 to around 2.3% per annum.
Based on medium series population forecasts prepared by the Office of Economic and Statistical
Research (OESR) at the Queensland Treasury (formally the Planning Information and Forecasting Unit or
PIFU), it is estimated that population growth on the Sunshine Coast (which includes the Noosa Shire) will
continue to remain strong, growing at 2.2% per annum between 2013 and 2016. Over the medium to
longer term, it is predicted that population growth will remain solid before beginning to slow, in percentage
terms, around 2026.
24 COMMERCIAL OFFICE DEMAND DRIVERS
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Regional Population Growth
SUNSHINE COAST AND SOUTH EAST QUEENSLAND TABLE 5.1
Estimated Resident Population 1 Forecast Population 1
Population 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
Australia 19,274,700 20,451,000 22,340,000 24,352,900 26,444,700 28,497,800 30,492,600
Queensland 3,571,500 4,008,000 4,476,800 4,936,100 5,433,200 5,927,800 6,415,300
2
South East Qld 2,341,200 2,671,400 3,012,300 3,357,900 3,722,900 4,084,400 4,440,300
Sunshine Coast & Noosa 242,400 284,700 318,300 353,400 394,300 435,000 475,800
Average Annual Change (No.) 2001-06 2006-11 2013-16 2016-21 2021-26 2026-31
Australia 235,260 377,800 406,400 418,400 410,600 399,000
Queensland 87,300 93,760 93,700 99,420 98,920 97,500
South East Qld 66,040 68,180 72,967 73,000 72,300 71,180
Sunshine Coast & Noosa 8,460 6,720 7,633 8,180 8,140 8,160
Average Annual Change (%) 2001-06 2006-11 2013-16 2016-21 2021-26 2026-31
Australia 1.2% 1.8% 1.7% 1.7% 1.5% 1.4%
Queensland 2.3% 2.2% 2.0% 1.9% 1.8% 1.6%
South East Qld 2.7% 2.4% 2.3% 2.1% 1.9% 1.7%
Sunshine Coast & Noosa 3.27% 2.3% 2.3% 2.2% 2.0% 1.8%
Queensland as a Proportion of Australia
Population (no.) 18.5% 19.6% 20.0% 20.3% 20.5% 20.8% 21.0%
Growth (no.) 37.1% 24.8% 23.1% 23.8% 24.1% 24.4%
South East Qld as a Proportion of Queensland
Population (no.) 65.6% 66.7% 67.3% 68.0% 68.5% 68.9% 69.2%
Growth (no.) 75.6% 72.7% 77.9% 73.4% 73.1% 73.0%
Sunshine Coast and Noosa as Proportion of South East Qld
Population (no.) 10.4% 10.7% 10.6% 10.5% 10.6% 10.7% 10.7%
Growth (no.) 12.8% 9.9% 10.5% 11.2% 11.3% 11.5%
So urce: A B S ; OESR M edium Series Urbis
5.2 NOOSA CIVIC CATCHMENT POPULATION GROWTH
Historical and forecast population trends have been prepared based on a range of sources relating to
demographics and land development activity, as follows:
ABS Estimated Resident Population (ERP) in 2013 for Statistical Area 1 (SA1) geographies, which
provides an accurate measure of the catchment area population at the small area level.
The ABS New Dwelling Approval (NDA) data up to December 2013.
Demography and Planning, Office of Economic and Statistical Research, Queensland Treasury and
Trade, medium series population projections for Statistical Area 2 (SA2s), prepared in 2014.
The latest Broadhectare Study for South East Queensland prepared by OESR in 2013.
Research on major residential developments currently underway or proposed within the catchment
area.
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5.2.1 HISTORIC GROWTH
Over the six years to 2013, the population within the Noosa Civic catchment area has experienced growth
of approximately 8,635 people or 1.9% per annum (refer Table 5.1), reaching a total of 79,680 residents
in 2013.
In absolute terms, this was predominately driven by population growth within the secondary south east
and south sectors, each sector increasing by around 430 people per annum. In percentage terms, the
secondary south sector grew at an average of 4.5% per annum, albeit off a lower base than the other
sectors.
5.2.2 LAND RELEASE PATTERNS
The location of major residential development activity over the past 7-8 years is shown in Maps 5.1 and
5.2. In recent years the majority of the catchment area’s population growth has occurred in the secondary
south east and secondary south sectors, as a result of major residential development in areas such as
Peregian Springs.
The location of future major residential estates, as captured in the Broadhectare Study of South East
Queensland 2013 is shown in Maps 5.3 and 5.4. This study indicates the areas which are suitable and
potentially available for greenfield residential development. As the maps show, there is only a limited
amount of broadhectare residential land designated within the catchment area. Growth is therefore
expected to arise from infill development and increasing densities.
According to the study, short term residential development is expected to occur in the southern extent of
the secondary south catchment area where Emu Creek Road meets the Sunshine Motorway in Peregian
Springs. Other smaller short term developments are scattered throughout the catchment area, with the
larger residential greenfield designations occurring in the primary sector and the secondary north sector
around Cooroy.
Large residential based land that does not have a specific time frame for development is expected to
occur in areas to the west of the Noosa township, especially around the townships of Doonan, Eumundi,
Lake McDonald, Cooroibah and Pinbarren.
26 COMMERCIAL OFFICE DEMAND DRIVERS
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DWELLING APPROVALS, CATCHMENT AREA MAP 5.1 URBIS REP_251114_NOOSA CIVIC COMMERCIAL NEEDS ASSESSMENT FINAL COMMERCIAL OFFICE DEMAND DRIVERS 27
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DWELLING APPROVALS, PRIMARY CATCHMENT AREA FOCUS MAP 5.2
28 COMMERCIAL OFFICE DEMAND DRIVERS
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LAND RELEASE PATTERNS, CATCHMENT AREA MAP 5.3 URBIS REP_251114_NOOSA CIVIC COMMERCIAL NEEDS ASSESSMENT FINAL COMMERCIAL OFFICE DEMAND DRIVERS 29
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LAND RELEASE PATTERNS, PRIMARY CATCHMENT AREA FOCUS MAP 5.4
30 COMMERCIAL OFFICE DEMAND DRIVERS
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5.2.3 POPULATION FORECASTS Going forward, it is expected that the population within the Noosa Civic catchment area will be driven by short term broadhectare land releases in the secondary south east and secondary south sectors, but also ongoing infill and higher density developments. By 2021, it is expected that population growth within the catchment area would reach almost 90,000 people representing a growth rate of approximately 1.5% from the estimated resident population in 2013. This is expected to continue to be driven by growth in the secondary south east and secondary south sectors which contain the broadhectare land to be developed in the short term. These sectors are expected to increase, on average, by approximately 1.8% and 3.4% per annum respectively during this time period. As outlined in the previous section there is only small amount of long term broadhectare land designated within the catchment area. This, together with broader trends and changes to the region’s economic drivers, has been reflected in a decrease in the level of population growth post 2021 with the primary, north east, south east and north west sectors all experiencing population growth less than 1% per annum. The secondary south sector is expected to witness average growth of 1.7% per annum. In total the catchment area is forecast to increase by around 10,000 people between 2013-2021, and by a further 6,000 people between 2021-31. The additional population growth within the Noosa Civic catchment area is expected to drive additional demand for the benefit of local businesses and retail facilities within the Noosa area, although population growth will not be the main consideration relating to future needs. URBIS REP_251114_NOOSA CIVIC COMMERCIAL NEEDS ASSESSMENT FINAL COMMERCIAL OFFICE DEMAND DRIVERS 31
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Population Forecasts, 2007-2031
NOOSA CIVIC CATCHMENT AREA TABLE 5.2
1 2
Actual Forecast
2007 2013 2016 2021 2026 2031
Primary 20,650 22,090 22,830 23,660 23,920 24,340
Secondary:
North East 10,600 11,050 11,230 11,480 11,570 11,670
South East 16,130 18,710 19,890 21,500 21,920 22,350
South 8,510 11,100 12,420 15,010 16,310 17,680
North West 15,160 16,730 17,290 18,270 18,740 19,510
Total Secondary 50,400 57,590 60,830 66,250 68,540 71,210
Main Trade Area 71,050 79,680 83,660 89,910 92,450 95,550
Annual Population Growth (no.)
2007-13 2013-16 2016-21 2021-26 2026-31
Primary 240 247 166 52 84
Secondary:
North East 75 60 50 18 20
South East 430 393 322 84 86
South 432 440 518 260 274
North West 262 187 196 94 154
Total Secondary 1,198 1,080 1,084 458 534
Main Trade Area 1,438 1,327 1,250 508 620
Annual Population Growth (%)
2007-13 2013-16 2016-21 2021-26 2026-31
Primary: 1.1% 1.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.3%
Secondary:
North East 0.7% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2%
South East 2.5% 2.1% 1.6% 0.4% 0.4%
South 4.5% 3.8% 3.9% 1.7% 1.6%
North West 1.7% 1.1% 1.1% 0.5% 0.8%
Total Secondary 2.2% 1.8% 1.7% 0.7% 0.8%
Main Trade Area 1.9% 1.6% 1.5% 0.6% 0.7%
1. As at June, ERP for 2007 and 2013 based on SA1 boundaries
2. Forecast Queensland Population based on ABS population projections (3222.0), Series B
Source : ABS, Regional Population Growth, Australia, Electronic Delivery (3218.0.55.001) ;
ABS, Australian Demographic Statistics (3101.0) ;
ABS, Population Projections, Australia, 2012 (base) to 2101 (3222.0) Series B
Demography and Planning, Office of Economic and Statistical Research, Queensland Treasury,
local government area projections (medium series) 2011 to 2036 ; Urbis
The proportion of the Sunshine Coast Region which has been attributed to the catchment area in the past
and also the future is displayed below in Table 5.3. In the period 2001 to 2011, the catchment area
accounted for 24%-25% of the total population in the Sunshine Coast Region, equating to around 21%-
22% of total growth.
Going forward, growth in the Sunshine Coast Region is expected to be focussed in areas such as
Caloundra South, Kawana and Sippy Downs. Based on our forecasts, by the 2021- 2031 period, the
catchment area is only anticipated to account for, on average, 6.9% of the total population growth
forecast for the Sunshine Coast Region (refer Table 5.4).
32 COMMERCIAL OFFICE DEMAND DRIVERS
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Catchment Area as a Proportion of Sunshine Coast & Noosa
2001 - 2031 TABLE 5.3
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
Population (no.) 25.0% 24.4% 24.2% 23.7% 22.8% 21.3% 20.1%
Growth (no.) 21.2% 22.2% 17.4% 15.3% 6.2% 7.6%
Source: Urbis
5.3 LABOUR FORCE DEMAND DRIVERS
This section of the report explores the structure of the labour force within the Noosa Civic catchment
area, the Sunshine Coast LGA and the wider SEQ region. This analysis has been undertaken to gain an
understanding of the variables that exist for each labour market.
5.4 PLACE OF WORK
The demand for core commercial office space is directly linked to the amount of white collar workers
within the Noosa Civic catchment area. This section provides an overview of the industry of employment
and occupation of the workforce and determines the proportion of white collar workers within the Noosa
Civic catchment area. Data has been sourced from the Place of Work data released by the ABS and
outlined in section 3.
As part of the Census of Population and Housing, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) collects
journey to work data. This data shows how people get to-and-from work (mode of transport) as well as
the location of their home and their workplace. This data provides insights into the employment
movements of residents of the Noosa Civic catchment area. Notably, it shows that a large proportion of
catchment residents work within the catchment (12,140 people or 45.5%). The other major work locations
for catchment area residents are Nambour-Pomona (25.1%) and Maroochy (14.9%) which represent the
higher order centres within the Sunshine Coast Council.
Of those residents working in the catchment area the major industries of employment are primarily non-
office based sectors - Retail Trade; Accommodation and Food Services; Health Care and Social
Assistance; Education and Training. This is similar for catchment residents working in Nambour-Pomona,
and Maroochy.
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Place
Place of of
Work
Work
MAIN
MAIN CATCHMENT AREA RESIDENTS
TRADE AREA RESIDENTS TABLE 5.4
Area Number Percentage
Noosa 12,140 45.5%
Retail Trade 2,150
Accommodation and Food Services 2,088
Health Care and Social Assistance 1,506
Education and Training 933
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services 836
Nambour - Pomona 6,710 25.1%
Health Care and Social Assistance 1,190
Retail Trade 693
Education and Training 669
Construction 603
Manufacturing 586
Maroochy 3,980 14.9%
Accommodation and Food Services 741
Retail Trade 510
Health Care and Social Assistance 426
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services 342
Construction 301
Buderim 1,090 4.1%
Caloundra 670 2.5%
1
Brisbane 400 1.5%
Gympie - Cooloola 530 2.0%
Sunshine Coast Hinterland 340 1.3%
Bowen Basin - North 170 0.6%
Nundah 100 0.4%
Other 580 2.2%
TOTAL 26,710
Excl. Qld undefined/no fixed address 3,800
1. Includes place o f wo rk 'capital city undefined'
So urce : A B S Census o f P o pulatio n & Ho using 2011; Urbis
5.4.1 INDUSTRY PROFILE OF LOCAL WORKERS
For local residents who work in the catchment the most common industries are service based industries
including Hospitality, Retail, Health, Education, and Construction. Core commercial based industries such
as Professional Services, and Administrative Services are generally poorly represented.
34 COMMERCIAL OFFICE DEMAND DRIVERS
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Industry of Employment
RESIDENTS EMPLOYED IN THE CATCHMENT, 2011 TABLE 5.5
Industry Number Percentage
Accommodation and Food Services 2,970 16%
Retail Trade 2,940 16%
Health Care and Social Assistance 2,200 12%
Education and Training 1,540 8%
Construction 1,430 8%
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services 1,390 7%
Manufacturing 910 5%
Other Services 770 4%
Administrative and Support Services 690 4%
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services 650 4%
1
Other 3,080 17%
Total 18,570 100%
1. Includes Inadequately Described, Not Stated and Not Applicable
Source : ABS Census of Population & Housing 2011 ; Urbis
5.4.2 OCCUPATION PROFILE OF LOCAL WORKERS
In regard to occupations there is a clearer connection to office based employment with significant
numbers of Professionals, Managers, and Clerical and Administrative Workers in the local resident
workforce. Together these three occupational types represent 45% of catchment residents who work in
the catchment. It is likely though that the high proportion of health workers in the catchment are likely to
influence the high number of Professionals identified working locally.
Occupation Profile
RESIDENTS EMPLOYED IN THE CATCHMENT, 2011 TABLE 5.6
Industry Number Percentage
Professionals 3,280 18%
Managers 2,660 14%
Sales Workers 2,570 14%
Clerical and Administrative Workers 2,500 13%
Community and Personal Service Workers 2,450 13%
Technicians and Trades Workers 2,440 13%
Labourers 1,920 10%
Machinery Operators and Drivers 580 3%
1
Other 160 1%
TOTAL 18,560 100%
1. Includes Inadequately Described, No t Stated and No t A pplicable
So urce : A B S Census o f P o pulatio n & Ho using 2011; Urbis
5.5 WHITE COLLAR EMPLOYMENT
The proportion of white collar employment is a key influencer on the number of office based white collar
workers and the demand for office floor space. Office based white collar workers are defined as white
collar workers (as per the ANZSIC Occupation classifications) who are likely to be located in office
accommodation. Occupational classifications at the 4 digit level are used for this classification as this is
the most specific occupational level and subsequently provides the best ability to identify occupations that
are likely to be office based. The 4 digit level occupations that form the base for the estimate of office
based white collar workers are presented in Appendix C.
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The proportion of office based white collar workers in the Noosa Civic catchment, surrounding areas and
overall Sunshine Coast region are shown in the chart below. Office based white collar workers have been
separated into Core and Non-Core categories. Non-Core categories include a range of property agent
occupations, retail banking occupations, and travel agent occupations.
The Noosa Civic catchment area is represented by the dark purple bars. Based on the 2011 ABS Census
results the Noosa Civic catchment area is estimated to have around 13% of employment in the form of
core commercial white collar workers.
Office White Collar Employment
CENSUS 2011 TABLE 5.7
25%
23% Buderim Caloundra
Maroochy Sunshine Coast Hinterland
Nambour - Pomona Noosa
Proportion of Employment (%)
20% Sunshine Coast Region
20%
17% 17% 18%
16%
15% 14%
14%
13% 12% 13%
11%
10%
10% 9%
5%
5%
5% 4% 3%
2% 2% 2%
0%
White Collar White Collar- Core White Collar - Non Core
So urce : A B S Census 2011; Urbis
5.5.1 OFFICE BASED WHITE COLLAR EMPLOYMENT FORECAST
Office based white collar employment forecasts for the Sunshine Coast region and Noosa Civic
catchments have been based on estimated forecast population growth and market shares. The forecasts
are based on a “medium‟ population projection series published by the Office of Economic and Statistical
Research (OESR).
Key assumptions used in generating these forecasts are:
Sunshine Coast Population has been based on Estimated Resident Population (ERP) forecasts
generated by the Office of Economic and Statistical Research (OESR) for the local government area.
The proportion of population over the age of 15 is based on trending historical ABS Census Data for
the local government area.
The Labour Force Participation rate is based on trending historical ABS Census Data for the local
government area.
The Jobs to Labour Force Ratio is based on trending historical ABS Census and Labour Force data
for the local government area.
The Percentage of office based white collar workers is based on trending historical ABS Census
and Labour Force data for the local government area. This reflects an increase in the proportion of
office based white collar workers at a rate of 0.4% per annum.
The following table shows the derivation of office based white collar employment forecasts for the
Sunshine Coast and Noosa Shire LGAs over the period to 2031. Going forward, it is expected that the
36 COMMERCIAL OFFICE DEMAND DRIVERS
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Sunshine Coast and Noosa Region together are expected to contain approximately 32,000 white collar
workers by 2031. This represents an increase of some 11,400 workers from 2013.
White Collar Employment Projection – Office Based Workers
SUNSHINE COAST AND NOOSA REGION, 2001 TO 2031 TABLE 5.8
Sunshine Coast and Noosa Historic Forecast Total Growth
Region 2001 2006 2011 2013 2021 2026 2031 Growth 13 - 31
1
Population 242,400 284,700 318,300 330,500 394,300 435,000 475,800 145,300
Proportion 15+ 77% 78% 81% 82% 82% 83% 84%
Population 15+ 187,599 222,392 258,980 270,725 324,285 360,607 399,154
Participation Rate 56.5% 57.1% 64.9% 62.8% 62.8% 62.8% 62.8%
Labour Force 105,962 126,928 168,034 169,954 203,578 226,380 250,578
Jobs to Labour Force Ratio 0.72 0.77 0.63 0.71 0.71 0.71 0.71
Total Jobs 76,644 98,053 105,735 120,667 144,540 160,729 177,911 57,243
% White Collar (Core Commercial) 15.7% 16.9% 17.0% 17.1% 17.5% 17.8% 18.0%
2
White Collar Employment 12,037 16,542 17,975 20,632 25,295 28,529 32,024 11,392
1. OESR population projection based on Medium growth Scenario. This factors Sunshine Coast Region population growth.
2. White collar refers to white collar workers who demand commercial floorspace only. That is - teachers, although white collar would
be excluded from this count.
Source : ABS; Demography and Planning, Office of Economic and Statistical Research, Queensland Treasury; LGA projections
(medium series); Urbis
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6 Noosa Civic Office Floor Space Demand
Assessment
There are a number of approaches that can be used to forecast commercial office floor space demand.
The major demand drivers for office based white collar floor space have been identified as population
growth and white collar employment growth. Therefore, it is important that these two drivers play primary
roles in floor space forecasts. With this in mind two floor space demand approaches have been
developed to estimate the demand for commercial office floor space at Noosa Civic. The first approach
focuses on the growth in office based white collar workers in the wider Sunshine Coast region and the
Noosa Civic catchment area. The second approach focuses on the forecast population growth for the
Sunshine Coast region and Noosa Civic catchment area. These two approaches are described below:
Market share approach (Method 1) estimates white collar employment and floor space growth for
the Sunshine Coast region and the potential market share estimated to be achieved by Noosa Civic.
Floor space to population ratio approach (Method 2) estimates the current floor space to resident
ratio and applies this ratio to the forecast population growth to calculate the additional floor space
demand.
6.1 MARKET SHARE APPROACH – METHOD 1
At present, the Noosa Civic catchment area is estimated to incorporate approximately 25,850 sq.m of
office floor space (including vacancies). This represents around 11% of the overall office floor space
estimate for the Sunshine Coast region.
Going forward there is a number of projects identified to deliver additional office floor space across the
region. This includes the Maroochydore Structure Plan area, the Sippy Downs Town Centre, Kawana
Town Centre, and Caloundra South Town Centre. The estimates in the following table represent supply
estimates indicative of supply possibilities, not necessarily reflective of commercial demand.
Sunshine Coast Office Markets
LONG TERM SUPPLY ESTIMATES – MARKET SHARE TABLE 6.1
Current Est. Market Additional Est. Market Total additonal Est. Market
1
Floorspace Share Floorspace Share Floospace Share
2013 (Sq.m) 2013 (Sq.m) 2013-26 (Sq.m) 2013-26 (%) 2026+ (Sq.m) 2026+ (%)
Maroochydore and Kawana (Office) 153,169 66.9% 127,224 66.8% 232,250 71.9%
Noosa Civic Catchment Area (Est. sq.m) 25,852 11.3% 0 6.2% 0 4.8%
Namb our and others (Est. sq.m) 50,000 21.8% 63,334 27.0% 75,137 23.3%
Total Sunshine Coast Office Supply 229,021 100.0% 190,558 100.0% 307,387 100%
1. Represents to tal sto ck, including vacancies
So urce: QIC ; P ro perty Co uncil o f A ustralia Office M arket Repo rt July 2014 ; Urbis
The majority of future office space on the Sunshine Coast is planned for the traditional office centres of
Maroochydore and Kawana. This is anticipated to see these locations continue to account for around
70% of the overall supply of office floor space on the Sunshine Coast.
The purpose of this analysis is to identify the market share that the catchment would result in with the
addition of no new office floor space and as a result, no office floor space supply has been allocated for
the Noosa Civic catchment area.
If this were the case, the Noosa Civic catchment area would represent 6.2% of the overall Sunshine
Coast office market by 2026, and 4.8% beyond 2026. For the purposes of this assessment it has been
assumed that the Noosa Civic catchment area maintains its existing market share of 11.3% of the overall
Sunshine Coast office market. This is likely to be at the high end.
38 NOOSA CIVIC OFFICE FLOOR SPACE DEMAND ASSESSMENT
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6.2 OFFICE FLOOR SPACE DEMAND ESTIMATE
To estimate the demand for office floor space at Noosa Civic based on the market share approach, the
following factors have been applied:
A base population for the Sunshine Coast region of 330,500 persons in 2013. Forecast population
growth to 2031 of 145,300 based on Queensland Government forecasts.
A labour force of 169,954 persons based on 2011 Census labour force participation rates for persons
over 15 years of age.
A total jobs estimate of 120,667 based on a jobs to labour force ratio of 0.71 (2011 Census).
Office based White Collar (core) workforce proportion of 13.7% of the total regional workforce. The
application of a 0.4% growth rate to this proportion to represent historical trends in increasing white
collar workforce levels.
An office based white collar employment number of 16,497 persons across the region in 2013.
An office based white collar employment floor space ratio of 13.9 sq.m per worker. This ratio has
been derived from existing office floor space estimates for the Sunshine Coast region and office
based white collar worker estimates.
This approach to estimating office floor space demand for the Noosa Civic catchment area and Noosa
Civic is presented in the following table.
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Sunshine Coast Commercial Office Space
FORECAST POPULATION AND EMPLOYMENT GROWTH TO 2031 TABLE 6.2
Forecast Total Growth
Unit 2013 2016 2021 2026 2031 2013 - 2031
Sunshine Coast Population People 330,500 353,400 394,300 435,000 475,800 145,300
Proportion 15+ % 82% 82% 82% 83% 84%
Population 15+ % 270,725 288,343 324,285 360,607 399,154 128,429
Participation Rate % 62.8% 62.8% 62.8% 62.8% 62.8%
Labour Force People 169,954 181,014 203,578 226,380 250,578 80,624
Jobs to Labour Force Ratio % 0.71 0.71 0.71 0.71 0.71
Total Jobs Jobs 120,667 128,520 144,540 160,729 177,911 57,243
% White Collar (Commercial) - Core % 13.7% 13.8% 14.0% 14.2% 14.4%
White Collar Employment 1 Jobs 16,497 17,723 20,221 22,811 25,616 9,119
Floorspace per Job Sq.m 13.9 13.9 13.9 13.9 13.9
Estimated Office Floorspace Sq.m 229,021 m² 246,040 m² 280,719 m² 316,686 m² 355,618 m² 126,597 m²
Noosa Civic Catchment Market Share of Sunshine Coast % 11.3% 11.3% 11.3% 11.3% 11.3%
Demand Increase (5 yr intervals) sq.m 22,589 m² 1,921 m² 3,915 m² 4,060 m² 4,395 m²
Assumed Vacancy Rate (%) % 12.3% 12.3% 12.3% 12.3%
Assumed Vacant Space sq.m 236 m² 481 m² 499 m² 541 m²
Demand (Cumulative) - including vacancy sq.m 22,589 m² 24,746 m² 29,143 m² 33,702 m² 38,637 m² 16,048 m²
Current Floor Space Supply sq.m 22,589 m²
Net Additional Demand (Cumulative) - Noosa Civic Catchment Area sq.m 0 m² 2,157 m² 6,554 m² 11,113 m² 16,048 m² 16,048 m²
Noosa Civic @ 27% market Share % 27% 27% 27% 27% 27% 27%
Net Additional Demand (Cumulative) - Noosa Civic sq.m 0 m² 583 m² 1,769 m² 3,000 m² 4,333 m² 4,333 m²
Noosa Civic @ 50% market share % 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50%
Net Additional Demand (Cumulative) - Noosa Civic Centre sq.m 0 m² 1,079 m² 3,277 m² 5,556 m² 8,024 m² 8,024 m²
1. White co llar refers to white co llar wo rkers who demand co mmercial flo o rspace o nly. That is, teachers, altho ugh white co llar wo uld be excluded fro m this co unt
So urce : A B S; Demo graphy and P lanning, Office o f Eco no mic and Statistical Research, Queensland Treasury; SLA pro jectio ns (medium series); QIC ; Urbis
40 NOOSA CIVIC OFFICE FLOOR SPACE DEMAND ASSESSMENT
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Noosa Civic currently accounts for around 15% of the supply of office floor space in the catchment. Going
forward the Shire Business Centre (including Noosa Civic) is intended to be a significant location for office
floor space in the Shire. In respect of this we anticipate that Noosa Civic will attract a higher share of the
office floor space demand in the catchment that it currently captures. Subsequently we have applied a
range of market shares from 27%-50% that Noosa Civic may achieve of future office floor space
development in the catchment area.
Based on this approach it is estimated that demand for office floor space at Noosa Civic will range
between 4,300 sq.m and 8,000 sq.m between 2013 and 2031.
6.3 FLOORSPACE DEMAND – FLOOR SPACE TO POPULATION RATIO
APPROACH
The second approach to estimating the demand for office floor space at Noosa Civic is based on the ratio
between the catchment area’s population and the provision of office floor space. This approach assumes
that the market is at a point of equilibrium with demand equalling supply, which we note may not
necessarily be the case. This approach applies the following assumptions and factors:
The current population for the Noosa Civic catchment is estimated to be 79,680 persons.
The current occupied office floor space in the catchment is approximately 22,590 sq.m.
Based on the above two figures, the ratio of population to office floor space is 0.28 sq.m.
An ongoing vacancy rate of 12.3%.
Market share of the estimated future Noosa Civic catchment office space demand ranging from 27%
to 50%.
Sunshine Coast Commercial Office Space
FORECAST POPULATION AND EMPLOYMENT GROWTH – TO 2031 TABLE 6.3
Forecast Total Growth
2013 2016 2021 2026 2031 2013-31
Noosa Civic Catchment Population 79,680 83,660 89,910 92,450 95,550 15,870
Commercial Space Demand 1 22,589 23,717 25,489 26,209 27,088
Commercial space to Population Rate 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28
Demand Increase (5 yr intervals) 1,128 1,772 720 879
Net Additional Demand (Cumulative) 0 m² 1,128 m² 2,900 m² 3,620 m² 4,499 m²
Assumed Vacancy Rate (%) 12.3% 12.3% 12.3% 12.3%
Assumed Vacant Space 139 m² 357 m² 445 m² 553 m²
Net Additional Demand (Cumulative) - Include Vacancy rate 0 m² 1,267 m² 3,257 m² 4,066 m² 5,052 m² 5,052 m²
Noosa Civic Centre Estimated Proportion 27% 27% 27% 27% 27% 27%
Noosa Civic Centre Net Additional Demand (Cumulative) 0 m² 342 m² 879 m² 1,098 m² 1,364 m² 1,364 m²
Noosa Civic Centre Estimated Proportion 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50%
Noosa Civic Centre Net Additional Demand (Cumulative) 0 m² 634 m² 1,628 m² 2,033 m² 2,526 m² 2,526 m²
1. Represents o ccupied co mmercial o ffice space
So urce : A B S; Demo graphy and P lanning, Office o f Eco no mic and Statistical Research, Queensland Treasury; SLA pro jectio ns (medium series); Urbis
Applying the commercial office floor space ratio to the forecast population growth for the Noosa Civic
catchment area will result in an estimated demand for office floor space for the catchment of 5,050 sq.m
over the period from 2013 to 2031.
When the Noosa Civic market shares are applied to this office floor space demand estimate, this
generates an office floor space demand range for Noosa Civic over the period from 2013 to 2031 of 1,360
sq.m to 2,530 sq.m of core commercial office space.
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7 Key Findings and Conclusion
7.1 KEY FINDINGS
The demand for commercial office floor space within the Noosa Civic has been assessed through two
approaches, which are outlined in the following points.
Market share approach (Method 1) – Provides an estimate of the white collar employment and floor
space growth for the Sunshine Coast region and the potential market share that Noosa Civic could
capture.
Floor space to population ratio approach (Method 2) – Provides an estimate of the current
benchmark of commercial office floor space to resident population in the Noosa Civic catchment area.
It then applies this benchmark to future population growth to calculate the additional commercial
office floor space demand in the Noosa Civic catchment area.
The key assumptions used in the commercial office demand study are as follows:
FACTOR ASSUMPTION
Population Sunshine Coast Population has been based on Estimated Resident Population (ERP)
forecasts generated by the Office of Economic and Statistical Research (OESR) for the
local government area. Essentially, the base case applies a ‘medium’ Estimated
Resident Population (ERP) forecast generated by the Office of Economic and Statistical
Research (OESR) for the local government area.
Age Groups The proportion of population over the age of 15 is based on trending historical ABS
Census Data for the local government area.
Labour Force Participation The Labour Force Participation rate is based on trending historical ABS Census Data
Rate (Sunshine Coast) for the local government area. and whilst the Maroochydore Town Centre and other
similar projects on the Coast will bring a younger workforce, there is still a large and
aging population. In summary, it is assumed this new workforce will simply keep the
average participation rate at its status quo.
Jobs to Labour Force The Jobs to Labour Force Ratio is based on trending historical ABS Census and
Ratio Labour Force data for the local government area.
Percentage of White Collar The percentage of white collar commercial employees is based on trending historical
Employees ABS Census and Labour Force data for the local government area. White collar
employment refers to white collar workers who demand commercial floor space only.
Other white collar jobs, such as teachers, have been excluded from the count.
White Collar Floorspace White collar floor space per job has been derived from Australian Bureau of Statistics
Journey to Work (JTW) data, in conjunction with the amount of commercial office floor
space on the Sunshine Coast.
Current Commercial Office The quantum of commercial office floorspace has been estimated based on the Urbis
Floor space and Vacancy Land Use Survey conducted in July 2014. This estimate only takes into account core
commercial office space tenants, which demand commercial office floor space only.
Rates
Current vacancy rate of 12.6% per cent of the Noosa Civic catchment area is estimated
based on the Urbis Land Use Survey. The long term vacancy rate is likely to be on
average 12.3 per cent based on the PCA market Benchmark (July 14).
Market Share A 27 per cent market share for Noosa Civic to the catchment area, as estimated based
on an increase on the current office space market share that Noosa Civic achieves of its
catchment. Given that the Noosa Shire Business Centre is the highest order centre, it is
expected that this market share could in fact increase to as high as 50% of the total
42 KEY FINDINGS AND CONCLUSION
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FACTOR ASSUMPTION
Noosa Civic catchment area.
Noosa Civic currently accounts for around 15% of the supply of office floor space in the catchment. Going
forward the Noosa Shire Business Centre is intended to be a significant location for office floor space in
the Shire. On this basis we have applied a range of market shares from 27%-50% that Noosa Civic may
achieve of future office floor space development in the catchment area. Based on this approach it is
estimated that demand for office floor space at Noosa Civic will range between 4,300 sq.m and 8,000
sq.m between 2013 and 2031.
NOOSA CIVIC MARKET SHARE METHOD 1 – DEMAND FOR METHOD 2 – DEMAND FOR
COMMERCIAL OFFICE SPACE COMMERCIAL OFFICE SPACE
27% Market Share 4,300 sq.m 1,360 sq.m
50% Market Share 8,000 sq.m 2,530 sq.m
Source: Urbis, 2014
Applying the commercial office floor space ratio to the forecast population growth for the Noosa Civic
catchment area (method 2) will result in an estimated demand for office floor space for the catchment of
5,050 sq.m over the period from 2013 to 2031.
When the Noosa Civic market shares are applied to this office floor space demand estimate, this
generates an office floor space demand range for Noosa Civic over the period from 2013 to 2031 of 1,360
sq.m to 2,530 sq.m of core commercial office space.
7.2 CONCLUSION
On the basis of the commercial office demand assessment conducted in this report, it would appear
appropriate to allow for capacity up to 8,000 sq.m of commercial office floor space at Noosa Civic to
2031.
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Disclaimer
This report is dated August 2014 and incorporates information and events up to that date only and excludes any
information arising, or event occurring, after that date which may affect the validity of Urbis Pty Ltd’s (Urbis) opinion
in this report. Urbis prepared this report on the instructions, and for the benefit only, of QIC Noosa Civic Pty Ltd
(Instructing Party) for the purpose of Commercial Demand Assessment (Purpose) and not for any other purpose or
use. To the extent permitted by applicable law, Urbis expressly disclaims all liability, whether direct or indirect, to the
Instructing Party which relies or purports to rely on this report for any purpose other than the Purpose, and to any
other person which relies or purports to rely on this report for any purpose whatsoever (including the Purpose).
In preparing this report, Urbis was required to make judgements which may be affected by unforeseen future events,
the likelihood and effects of which are not capable of precise assessment.
All surveys, forecasts, projections and recommendations contained in or associated with this report are made in good
faith and on the basis of information supplied to Urbis at the date of this report, and upon which Urbis relied.
Achievement of the projections and budgets set out in this report will depend, among other things, on the actions of
others over which Urbis has no control.
Whilst Urbis has made all reasonable inquiries it believes necessary in preparing this report, it is not responsible for
determining the completeness or accuracy of information provided to it. Urbis (including its officers and personnel) is
not liable for any errors or omissions, including in information provided by the Instructing Party or another person or
upon which Urbis relies, provided that such errors or omissions are not made by Urbis recklessly or in bad faith.
This report has been prepared with due care and diligence by Urbis and the statements and opinions given by Urbis
in this report are given in good faith and in the reasonable belief that they are correct and not misleading, subject to
the limitations above.
44 DISCLAIMER
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Appendix A Urbis Land Use Survey Methodology URBIS REP_251114_NOOSA CIVIC COMMERCIAL NEEDS ASSESSMENT FINAL APPENDICES
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Urbis Land Use Survey Methodology
An in depth land use survey was conducted by Urbis in July 2014. The purpose of this land use survey
was to gather data on specific land uses and quantum of floorspace within centres designated within the
planning framework – that is the Noosa Plan and the Sunshine Coast Planning Scheme.
The methodology of the land use survey is outlined in the following points:
Each of the designated centres that were visited was identified using the relevant planning schemes
that are available on the respective council’s websites. When visiting each centre the geographical
extent of the centre zoning was determined by the zoning maps and the matching of the cadastres
with the street addresses once on site.
Where available, the survey draws on industry sources such as Property Council of Australia
Shopping Centre Database as well as any publicly available investment memorandums that provide
an accurate overview of the tenancy schedule and floorspace provisions for each centre. These
documents are tailored towards individual shopping centres and retail assets and did not provide
tenancy or floorspace data on strip shop precincts or smaller local/convenience centres.
For centres and strip shop precincts that did not have any publicly available data, a floorspace survey
was conducted. This process identified the address, the tenant, the floor level that the tenancy
occupied as well as an estimated size for the frontage and depth of the tenancy (and therefore the
size of the tenancy).
The length of frontage and depth of each tenancy were estimated by stepping out the distance, using
an approximate 1 metre step that was measured at the start of the land use survey. Where available,
the depth was also stepped out using the same process. This data was recorded on dictaphones and
other recording devices and was transferred to an excel database once back in the office. As a
“quality control” process, double checking tenancy names and locations was also conducted.
On the occasion where a building or tenancy was too difficult to measure or there were restricted
entry or safety concerns, the measurements were completed using up to date aerial photographs
through the NearMap online mapping application.
Once the tenancy database was complete, each entry was classified using Urbis retail classifications,
and ANZSIC classifications at the 2, 3 and 4 digit level and an estimate of total catchment area
floorspace and centre specific floorspace were made.
It is important to note that whilst there was a clear methodology for the Urbis land use survey, it
provides an estimate only of the floorspace within each centre designation.
URBIS
APPENDICES REP_251114_NOOSA CIVIC COMMERCIAL NEEDS ASSESSMENT FINAL
Page 53
Appendix B Core Commercial Office Floorspace,
Noosa Civic, June 2014
URBIS
REP_251114_NOOSA CIVIC COMMERCIAL NEEDS ASSESSMENT FINAL APPENDICES
Page 54
Core Commercial Office Floorspace, June 2014
NOOSA CIVIC TABLE B1
Tenant Floorspace (GLA)
Mach Technology 231
Employment Services Queensland 404
Anglicare Southern Queensland 195
Campbell Page 181
CentreLink 827
McCallum Jenkins Lawyers 64
Sunshine Coast Newspaper 186
Noosa Boardroom 294
Department of Housing and Public Works 138
Stellar Conveyancing 95
NAB Administration 292
Piper Digital Marketing 199
Total Core Commercial Uses 3,106
Vacancies
Vacant 225
Vacant 105
Vacant 97
Vacant 196
Vacant 193
Total Vacant 816
So urce: QIC ; Urbis Land Use Survey July 2014
URBIS
APPENDICES REP_251114_NOOSA CIVIC COMMERCIAL NEEDS ASSESSMENT FINAL
Page 55
Appendix C White Collar Employment URBIS REP_251114_NOOSA CIVIC COMMERCIAL NEEDS ASSESSMENT FINAL APPENDICES
Page 56
White Collar Employment
BY INDP 4 DIGIT LEVEL TABLE C1
Core Commercial User Non-Core Commercial User
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing Support
Other Specialised Design Services Banking
Services, nfd
Forestry Support Services Scientific Testing and Analysis Services Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services, nfd
Rental and Hiring Services (except Real
Agriculture and Fishing Support Services, nfd Legal and Accounting Services, nfd
Estate), nfd
Motor Vehicle and Transport Equipment
Shearing Services Legal Services
Rental and Hiring, nfd
Other Agriculture and Fishing Support
Accounting Services Passenger Car Rental and Hiring
Services
Exploration and Other Mining Support Non-Financial Intangible Assets (except
Advertising Services
Services, nfd Copyrights) Leasing
Property Operators and Real Estate Services,
Other Mining Support Services Market Research and Statistical Services
nfd
Management and Related Consulting
Printing and Printing Support Services, nfd Property Operators, nfd
Services, nfd
Printing Support Services Corporate Head Office Management Services Residential Property Operators
Management Advice and Related Consulting
Other Telecommunications Services Non-Residential Property Operators
Services
Internet Service Providers, Web Search
Veterinary Services Real Estate Services
Portals and Data Processing Services, nfd
Internet Service Providers and Web Search Other Professional, Scientific and Technical Travel Agency and Tour Arrangement
Portals Services, nfd Services
Data Processing, Web Hosting and
Professional Photographic Services
Electronic Information Storage Services, nfd
Other Professional, Scientific and Technical
Data Processing and Web Hosting Services
Services nec
Computer System Design and Related
Electronic Information Storage Services
Services
Library and Other Information Services, nfd Administrative and Support Services, nfd
Other Information Services Administrative Services, nfd
Financial and Insurance Services, nfd Employment Services, nfd
Employment Placement and Recruitment
Finance, nfd
Services
Central Banking Labour Supply Services
Depository Financial Intermediation, nfd Other Administrative Services, nfd
Building Society Operation Office Administrative Services
Credit Union Operation Document Preparation Services
Credit Reporting and Debt Collection
Other Depository Financial Intermediation
Services
Non-Depository Financing Call Centre Operation
Financial Asset Investing Other Administrative Services nec
URBIS
APPENDICES REP_251114_NOOSA CIVIC COMMERCIAL NEEDS ASSESSMENT FINAL
Page 57
White Collar Employment, Continued
BY INDP 4 DIGIT LEVEL TABLE C1
Core Commercial User Non-Core Commercial User
Insurance and Superannuation Funds, nfd Public Administration and Safety, nfd
Life Insurance Public Administration, nfd
Health and General Insurance, nfd Central Government Administration
Health Insurance State Government Administration
General Insurance Local Government Administration
Superannuation Funds Justice
Auxiliary Finance and Insurance Services, nfd Government Representation, nfd
Auxiliary Finance and Investment Services,
Domestic Government Representation
nfd
Financial Asset Broking Services Foreign Government Representation
Other Auxiliary Finance and Investment
Defence
Services
Public Order, Safety and Regulatory Services,
Auxiliary Insurance Services
nfd
Professional, Scientific and Technical
Public Order and Safety Services, nfd
Services, nfd
Scientific Research Services Police Services
Architectural, Engineering and Technical Civic, Professional and Other Interest Group
Services, nfd Services, nfd
Business and Professional Association
Architectural Services
Services
Surveying and Mapping Services Labour Association Services
Engineering Design and Engineering
Other Interest Group Services nec
Consulting Services
Source: Census 2011
URBIS
REP_251114_NOOSA CIVIC COMMERCIAL NEEDS ASSESSMENT FINAL APPENDICES
Page 58
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