MCU14/0106 Appendix K - Commercial Needs Assessment

Regional Population Growth
SUNSHINE COAST AND SOUTH EAST QUEENSLAND                                                                            TABLE 5.1

                                     Estimated Resident Population 1                     Forecast Population 1
Population                            2001       2006       2011              2016         2021       2026          2031

Australia                          19,274,700 20,451,000 22,340,000 24,352,900 26,444,700 28,497,800 30,492,600
Queensland                           3,571,500       4,008,000   4,476,800   4,936,100   5,433,200   5,927,800    6,415,300
                    2
South East Qld                       2,341,200       2,671,400   3,012,300   3,357,900   3,722,900   4,084,400    4,440,300
Sunshine Coast & Noosa                 242,400        284,700     318,300     353,400      394,300     435,000      475,800

Average Annual Change (No.)                           2001-06     2006-11     2013-16     2016-21      2021-26      2026-31

Australia                                             235,260     377,800     406,400      418,400     410,600      399,000
Queensland                                             87,300      93,760      93,700       99,420      98,920        97,500
South East Qld                                         66,040      68,180      72,967       73,000      72,300        71,180
Sunshine Coast & Noosa                                  8,460       6,720       7,633        8,180        8,140        8,160

Average Annual Change (%)                             2001-06     2006-11     2013-16     2016-21      2021-26      2026-31

Australia                                                1.2%        1.8%        1.7%         1.7%        1.5%          1.4%
Queensland                                               2.3%        2.2%        2.0%         1.9%        1.8%          1.6%
South East Qld                                           2.7%        2.4%        2.3%         2.1%        1.9%          1.7%
Sunshine Coast & Noosa                                  3.27%        2.3%        2.3%         2.2%        2.0%          1.8%

Queensland as a Proportion of Australia
Population (no.)                             18.5%      19.6%       20.0%       20.3%       20.5%        20.8%        21.0%
Growth (no.)                                            37.1%       24.8%       23.1%       23.8%        24.1%        24.4%

South East Qld as a Proportion of Queensland
Population (no.)                             65.6%      66.7%       67.3%       68.0%       68.5%        68.9%        69.2%
Growth (no.)                                            75.6%       72.7%       77.9%       73.4%        73.1%        73.0%

Sunshine Coast and Noosa as Proportion of South East Qld
Population (no.)                             10.4%      10.7%       10.6%       10.5%       10.6%        10.7%        10.7%
Growth (no.)                                            12.8%        9.9%       10.5%       11.2%        11.3%        11.5%
So urce: A B S ; OESR M edium Series Urbis




5.2          NOOSA CIVIC CATCHMENT POPULATION GROWTH
Historical and forecast population trends have been prepared based on a range of sources relating to
demographics and land development activity, as follows:

    ABS Estimated Resident Population (ERP) in 2013 for Statistical Area 1 (SA1) geographies, which
     provides an accurate measure of the catchment area population at the small area level.

    The ABS New Dwelling Approval (NDA) data up to December 2013.

    Demography and Planning, Office of Economic and Statistical Research, Queensland Treasury and
     Trade, medium series population projections for Statistical Area 2 (SA2s), prepared in 2014.
    The latest Broadhectare Study for South East Queensland prepared by OESR in 2013.
    Research on major residential developments currently underway or proposed within the catchment
     area.




URBIS
REP_251114_NOOSA CIVIC COMMERCIAL NEEDS
ASSESSMENT FINAL                                                                            COMMERCIAL OFFICE DEMAND DRIVERS   25