MCU14/0106 Appendix J - Retail Needs Assessment

7.6         ESTIMATED RETENTION OF ESCAPE EXPENDITURE
The Noosa Civic expansion is forecast to reduce the amount of retail expenditure that escapes from the
trade area. The expansion at Noosa Civic will provide main trade area residents with an additional DDS
and a larger number of retail speciality shops. As a result, trade area residents are expected to reduce
their spending outside the trade area at locations such as Nambour, Maroochydore and Brisbane.

Our analysis of the forecast retention of escape expenditure is assessed based on the following
scenarios:

     Case 1 - No Development

     Case 2 - Development Scenario

The net additional market shares resulting from the Noosa Civic development are outlined in Table 7.8.
The Noosa Civic development scenario is expected to result in an increase of $117 million in retail
turnover, relative to the no development scenario (refer Table 7.9).


Market Shares
NOOSA CIVIC, 2018 ($2014, INC GST)                                                                                                TABLE 7.8
Trade Area Sector                                    Case 1                            Case 2             Market Share Uplift
Primary                                               16.8%                            32.8%                       16.0%
    Secondary North East                               8.5%                            16.6%                        8.1%
    Secondary South East                               4.0%                             7.6%                        3.5%
    Secondary South                                    9.7%                            16.7%                        7.1%
    Secondary North West                              11.8%                            22.9%                       11.1%
Total Secondary                                        8.2%                            15.4%                        7.2%
Main Trade Area                                       10.5%                            20.1%                        9.6%
1. Market Share Uplift is the difference between the Case 2 and Case 1 market shares
Source : Quantium ; Urbis


As shown in Section 5, almost $400 million of resident spending is currently directed to retailers outside
the trade area and/or online (see Table 5.15). This is obviously a very high level of leakage, signifying
unmet needs.

Based on the no development scenario, the level of escape expenditure from the Noosa Civic main trade
area is expected to increase by approximately $59 million to $459 million by 2018.

Under the expansion scenario, it is forecast that the proposed Noosa Civic expansion could potentially
reduce escape spend by $64million to $395 million. Consequently, the share of main trade area resident
spending that remains in the trade area is forecast to increase from 62.5% to 67.8%.

Total retail spending captured by Noosa Civic is forecast to increase by $117.0 million, relative to the no
expansion case. Of this, some $52.6 million is forecast to be transferred from other centres within the
trade area, while the remainder of the increase would be clawed back from outside of the trade area and
online.




106      ASSESSMENT OF NEED AND DEMAND
                                                                                                                                                URBIS
                                                                                         NOOSA CIVIC - RETAIL NEEDS ASSESSMENT DEC 2014 MASTER - FINAL