MCU14/0106 Appendix J - Retail Needs Assessment

   The provision of discount department stores in the trade area is well below the normal provision for
    markets like Noosa with a substantial population base and profile, and a strong tourist market (i.e.
    ~50% below average).

   There is an undersupply of supermarkets in the trade area and the current gap in the market will also
    increase over the forecast period. Consequently, given the local nature of trips to the supermarket the
    current stores are highly likely to be trading very well. This is a clear signal that demand exceeds
    supply at the present time and that the market can support more supermarket floorspace.

   Growth in the retail market is forecast at $271 million between 2014 and 2021, excluding inflation.
    This has the following implications:

        Between 26,600 sq.m and 39,400 sq.m of additional retail floorspace would be warranted by
         2021 based on market growth alone, not including the additional floorspace required to resolve
         current deficiencies.

        Under current circumstances around $100 million of this growth would be spent outside the trade
         area (i.e. 37%), representing an increase in escape spending. There is clearly potential to retain
         some of this leakage with further retail development in Noosa.

        The main trade area retail expenditure market is expected to increase to approximately $1.2
         billion in 2018. Based on the proposed development scheme it is estimated that the proposed
         expansion could capture 20.1% of the retail spending from the main trade area. This equates to a
         turnover of approximately $246 million, of which $104 million would be in food categories and
         $141 million non-food.

   The additional retail floorspace proposed at Noosa Civic is 21,980 sq.m and is expected to increase
    the level of discretionary retail facilities at the centre. Whilst escape spending will still occur to other
    centres, particularly Maroochydore, Nambour and Brisbane, an expanded Noosa Civic would result in
    retail escape expenditure from the main trade area decreasing from 37.5% to 32.2% in 2018, relative
    to the no expansion case. Apparel escape expenditure is forecast to be reduced from 57.0% to
    33.9%.




108     ASSESSMENT OF NEED AND DEMAND
                                                                                                                         URBIS
                                                                  NOOSA CIVIC - RETAIL NEEDS ASSESSMENT DEC 2014 MASTER - FINAL