Coastal Hazard Assessment · MCU25/0087

                                              17 The Esplanade, Sunshine Beach                              Report




                      Figure 5-6 100-year ARI storm profile (Vellinga, 1983) at Section C-C

5.2.3    Recession due to Sea Level Rise (S)
As discussed in Section 4.1.2, sea levels are predicted to rise in response to climate change and the
Queensland Government have adopted a sea level rise of 0.8 metres above present day mean sea
level by the year 2100. The ‘Coastal Hazards Technical Guide’ (Department of Environment and
Heritage Protection, 2013) requires the shoreline response to sea level rise be considered when
assessing erosion prone area widths. An industry standard practice for the assessment of shoreline
recession due to sea level rise is to apply the ‘Bruun Rule’ (Bruun, 1962) see Error! Reference source
not found..




         Figure 5-7 Conceptualisation of recession due to sea level rise due to Bruun Rule (Bruun, 1962)
The Bruun Rule assumes an equilibrium beach profile is maintained with rising sea level resulting in
an elevation and landward movement of the beach profile, as shown in Error! Reference source not
found.. The Bruun Rule is given by:
𝑟=

Where:
𝑟 = Shoreline recession due to sea level rise (m)
𝐵 = Horizontal distance of the active beach profile (m)
𝑎 = Rise in mean sea level (m)


                                                                  252662-MN-RP-CO-0001B | 10 November 2025 | Page 27