Coastal Hazard Assessment · MCU25/0087

                                            17 The Esplanade, Sunshine Beach                              Report




                           Figure 5-16 ETA 602 Vellinga calculation (BMT, 2018)



5.3.11 Shoreline recession due to sea level rise
The Queensland Government has adopted a projected sea-level rise of 0.8 metres by the year 2100,
based on climate modelling for probable scenarios of world development presented in the
‘Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report’ released in 2014
(AR5) (IPCC, 2014). This correlates to a sea level rise projection slightly above the mean for a
modelling scenario with very high Greenhouse Gas emissions (RCP8.5 scenario).
It should be noted that the IPCC AR5 sea level rise projections are relative to 2006 mean sea level as
indicated in Figure 5-17. (IPCC, 2014) has estimated the mean rate of global averaged sea level rise
was 3.2mm annually between 1993 to 2010 which would indicate that the mean sea level has risen by
approximately 54mm between 2006 and 2023. Both the BMT (2018) and M&N have adopted a 0.8m
sea level rise relative to current sea level which effectively results in adoption of a higher sea level
rise projection due to the inclusion of sea level rise that has occurred to date.




 Figure 5-17 Global mean sea level rise from2006 to 2100 determined by multi- model simulations (IPCC,2014)
BMT (2018) adopted a dune height of 4.9m AHD to undertake the assessment of recession due to
sea level rise based on a profile width of 525m (ETA602) and depth of closure of 11.5m. We believe
that the dune height proposed by BMT (2018) underestimates the true dune elevation along this


                                                                252662-MN-RP-CO-0001B | 10 November 2025 | Page 36