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Noosa Medihub - Economic Need Assessment (Mar-26) · MCU25/0119
LL i ECONOMICS NOOSA MEDIHUB ECONOMIC NEEDS ASSESSMENT Prepared for Stockwell March 2026 =
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The information contained in this document is of a general nature and is not intended to address the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular individual or entity. It is provided for information purposes only and does not constitute, nor should it be regarded in any manner whatsoever, as advice and it is not intended to influence a person in making a decision, including if applicable, in relation to any financial product or an interest in a financial product. Although we endeavour to provide accurate and timely information, there can be no guarantee that such information is accurate as of the date it is received or that it will continue to be accurate in the future. No one should act on such information without appropriate professional advice after a thorough examination of the particular situations. To the extent permissible by law, Think Economics and its associated entities shall not be liable for any errors, omission, defects, or misrepresentations in the information or for any loss or damage suffered by persons who use or rely on such information (including for reasons of negligence, negligent misstatement or otherwise). CONTACT Daniel Parker Principal, Economics [email protected] 0415 962 607 VERSION DATE OF ISSUE REVISIONS BY APPROVED BY 1.1 03 March 2026 MVDS DP
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Table of Contents 1.0 Introduction ................................................................................................................................................................ 2 1.1 Scope ......................................................................................................................................................................... 2 2.0 Context Review........................................................................................................................................................... 4 2.1 Proposed Development .............................................................................................................................................. 4 2.2 Sector Context ............................................................................................................................................................ 6 3.0 Trade Area Analysis .................................................................................................................................................... 7 3.1 Trade Area Delineation ............................................................................................................................................... 7 3.2 Socio-demographic Profile.......................................................................................................................................... 9 3.3 Population Projections .............................................................................................................................................. 12 4.0 Competitive Supply .................................................................................................................................................. 13 4.1 Existing Supply ......................................................................................................................................................... 13 5.0 Demand and Gap Assessment .................................................................................................................................. 18 5.1 Gym Demand ........................................................................................................................................................... 18 5.2 Pilates Demand......................................................................................................................................................... 20 5.3 Yoga Demand ........................................................................................................................................................... 21 5.4 Sports Recovery Demand ......................................................................................................................................... 22 6.0 Need and Impact Implications .................................................................................................................................. 23
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ECONOMIC NEEDS ASSESSMENT
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1.0 Introduction
1.1 Scope
Think Economics has been engaged to provide an independent assessment of the
economic need related to proposed indoor sports and recreation uses within the Noosa
Medihub centre at 26 Eenie Creek Road in the Noosa, otherwise referred to as the ‘subject
site’.
This report responds to the Further Advice request issued by Noosa Council in relation to
the Material Change of Use (MCU) application lodged for the subject site. Specifically, this
needs assessment has been prepared to respond to those comments provided in the
extract below.
Issue – Inconsistent Use
The submitted proposal seeks to establish an inconsistent use within the Major
Centre Zone – Showroom Precinct. The application material does not address the
economic need for the establishment of the proposed use within this zone. The
Major Centre Zone Overall Outcome (4) (a) details that the showroom precinct is to
provide for large format showroom retailing space for the whole of the centre with
other such compatible uses. This has not been addressed within the material.
The Noosaville Local Plan Code Overall Outcome (2) (h) sets out that development
within the Noosa Business Centre is the major focus for major employment
generating development and growth in Noosa Shire, particularly in the sectors of
education, health and wellness, digital economy, environmental industries and
professional services. There are currently several existing indoor sport and recreation
uses established within the Major Centre Zone and within the greater Noosaville
local plan area. Evidence must be provided to identify the need for additional
tenancies to be established.
This report identifies the relevant need conditions related to the MCU application by
assessing market conditions for indoor sport and recreation uses, including the need for
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ECONOMIC NEEDS ASSESSMENT
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specific indoor sport and recreation tenancies which have expressed interest in establishing
onsite.
Overall, the analysis completed in preparation of this report has determined that there are
existing need conditions supporting the scale and mix of indoor sports and recreation uses
proposed onsite that will include flexible uses such as wellness, Pilates, gym, yoga studio,
etc, and that the completed ‘Medihub’ facility will support strong positive community
benefits in the local area.
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2.0 Context Review
2.1 Proposed Development
The subject site comprises the Medihub building, which was approved in 2022 and
completed and commenced operations in 2024. It is occupied by a mix of medical and
office businesses.
The site is located within the Major Centre Zone under the Noosa Plan 2020, specifically
within the Noosa Business Centre (NBC) - Showroom Precinct, where Indoor Sport and
Recreation is identified as being subject to Impact Assessment (if the gross floor area for
any individual tenancy is less than 400sqm).
The current proposal seeks the opportunity for Indoor Sport and Recreation uses within
specific vacant tenancies onsite. The proposal requires no external works or changes to the
building façade and applies to existing tenancies (CC12, CC16, CC18, CC19 and CC20) to
provide flexibility to the use of the tenancies, which have been vacant since the building
was completed in 2024.
The total combined floorspace that the proposal relates to is 457sqm, however, this does
not imply that this entire floorspace will be occupied by Indoor Sport and Recreation uses,
rather it is intended to provide flexibility to support the various scale and tenancy needs of
potential future tenants.
The individual tenancies range from 77sqm to 125sqm as per the tenancy schedule below.
• CC12: 84sqm
• CC16: 87sqm
• CC18: 125sqm
• CC19: 77sqm
• CC20: 84sqm
The proposal is considered to align with the intent of the Major Centre Zone and NBC –
Showroom Precinct by encouraging health, wellbeing and recreational activities within an
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established commercial setting, enhancing the diversity of land uses and supporting
activation of existing approved floor space without adverse impacts on surrounding
tenancies or amenity. It proposes no change to the external façade of the building.
The colocation of personal health and wellness services, with existing medical, retail and
commercial services within the precinct enhances overall community amenity within the
centre, including increased convenience, accessibility and choice and aligns with the
Overall Outcomes for the Major Centre zone presented in the Noosa Plan 2020.
Figure 2.1 Tenancies Subject to Material Change of Use
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2.2 Sector Context
Health, wellness, and recreation facilities such as gyms, yoga, and Pilates studios play an
important role in supporting the physical and mental wellbeing of the community. These
facilities provide opportunities for regular physical activity for people of all ages, with
particular benefits for older demographics, contributing not only to personal health but also
to social engagement and community interaction.
Demand for gym and wellness facilities are primarily driven by the scale of the population
within the trade area, with higher household incomes and greater wealth levels enhancing
the demand for participation in health, wellness, and recreational activities. As such, the
composition and economic capacity of the local population are key determinants of market
demand for these services.
Noosa’s status as a prominent tourist destination further elevates demand for wellness and
recreational activities. Many existing yoga, Pilates, and recovery-focused offerings in the
region cater to the tourist market, reflecting the social and recreational preferences of
visitors. In contrast, the proposed Indoor Sports and Recreation use at the subject site is
expected to primarily service the resident population, providing a complementary local
amenity that supports consistent, community-based participation in wellness and
recreational activities.
The wellness industry is a fast-growing market worldwide fuelled by the increasing
awareness of people about the importance of holistic health. This comprehensive approach
to well-being extends beyond traditional physical activities to encompass nutritional diets,
mental health care, body recovery programs, and skin treatments, among other aspects.
Sport recovery sits within the wellness sector as saunas and contrast therapies has had a rise
in benefit awareness and trend in recent years.
Australia is recognised as one of the fastest-growing wellness economies globally,
recording average annual growth of 7.5% between 2019 and 2023, driven by +32.9% in
wellness tourism, +21.5% in thermal and mineral springs, +13.9% in wellness real estate,
+10.1% in mental wellness, and +9.4% in physical activity services 1.
1
Source: Global Wellness Institute 2025
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3.0 Trade Area Analysis
3.1 Trade Area Delineation
A trade area is defined as the geographic area for which a centre generates the majority of
its turnover and visitation. The extent of a trade area is driven by a range of accessibility
and convenience factors including:
• Centre attraction relative to the competition, including tenancy mix, car parking and co-
location with higher order facilities and/or services. The key factors that determine the
strength and attraction of any convenience centre are primarily the scale and
composition of the centre, in particular anchors, car parking, including access and ease
of use and ambience and presentation of the centre.
• The surrounding competitive framework and existing supply. While the strength and
appeal of a centre directly impact its ability to extract market share, the proximity and
attraction of competitive uses impact the extent of a centre's trade area. In essence, all
being equal, consumers naturally gravitate to the most convenient option.
• Road networks and traffic flows. The available road network, public transport service
and journey to work patterns all affect centre access and impact a centre’s convenience
and relative attractiveness.
• Natural and man-made physical boundaries such as rivers, rail, freeways etc. Significant
physical barriers often act to delineate a trade area boundary. Evidence indicates that
the more difficult a barrier to negotiate, the larger the decrease in customer patronage
and market share is experienced.
The proposed Indoor Sports and Recreation onsite are expected to serve a predominantly
local resident trade area based on accessibility and convenience. Based on a 15min drive
time from the subject site as well as Statistical Level 2 boundaries (SA2), the main trade area
has been identified for the subject site.
Residents within the defined trade area will benefit from the increased accessibility,
convenience, and choice that the proposed uses onsite will provide. Figure 3.1 illustrates
the defined trade area from which uses onsite are expected to derive the majority of their
demand.
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=j= THINK dH ECONOMIC NEEDS ASSESSMENT ECONOMICS MARCH 2026 Figure 3.1 Trade Area N LEGEND 15min Drive Time Catchment © Subject Site 0 1 2km
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ECONOMIC NEEDS ASSESSMENT
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3.2 Socio-demographic Profile
Table 2.1 following details the socio-demographic profile of the identified trade area. This
profile has been compared with the respective benchmarks for the Southeast Queensland
region and the Australian average. The data is sourced from the 2021 Census of Population
and Housing. Key points to note about the socio-demographic profile are as follows:
• The main trade area attributes a large proportion of people aged 50+ (42.4%)
compared to 34% for SEQ and 35.4% across Australia. The median age for the
catchment population is estimated at 49 years old which is significantly higher than the
regional and national medians of 39 and 38 years old respectively. Signalling the older
and established nature of the catchment.
• Reflective of the age profile, the main trade area has a higher proportion of couple-
family households with no children at 35.5%, compared to 27.5% for SEQ and 26.9%
across Australia. Couple-family households with children also represent a significant
proportion and account for 27.7% of households within the main trade area.
• The median weekly household income of the trade area is slightly below the regional
and national benchmarks at $1,675, compared to $1,873 for SEQ and $1,746 for
Australia, this is not seen as an appropriate measure alone of wealth for the catchment
because of the retired nature of the population in the trade area.
• Notably, home ownership levels across the trade area are significantly higher with
73.6% of homes owned outright or with a mortgage, indicating a higher level of
disposable income within the catchment. This compares to 65.2% across SEQ and
68.3% nationally. It is also noted that the median house price in the Noosa Heads
currently being $2.27M showing wealth throughout the trade area, which compares to
$1.19M for the Sunshine Coast region.
The defined main trade area comprises a community made up of a mix of predominantly
wealthy families with children and couple families with no children. The high level of wealth
showed through the property market with an older demographic will enhance indoor sports
and recreational demand conditions within the trade area. The higher proportion of older
people aged 50+ represent those demographic groups that will benefit most from an
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increase in exercise (gym, Pilates and yoga) provision as well as wellness amenities that will
offer an increase in convenience and accessibility.
Figure 3.2 Socio-demographic Profile
Age Profile
8.0%
7.0%
Proportion of Population
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+
Catchment SEQ Australia
Family and Household Structure
40.0%
35.0%
30.0%
Proprtion of Households
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
Couple family Couple family One parent Other family Lone person Group
with no children with children family households households
Catchment SEQ Australia
Source: ABS Census of Population and Housing 2021, Think Economics
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Table 3.1 Noosa Trade Area – Socio-demographic Profile
Catchment Non- Metro Qld Australia
Population (ERP):
2011 42,747 3,137,243 22,340,024
2016 48,250 3,460,442 24,190,907
2021 53,210 3,784,501 25,688,079
2024 55,609 4,084,508 27,194,369
Average Annual Growth 2016 - 21 (%) 1.98% 1.81% 1.21%
Average Annual Growth 2021 - 24 (%) 1.48% 2.58% 1.92%
Population Density (persons/sqkm) 302.6 164.24 3.34
Male (%) 48.3% 48.9% 49.3%
Female (%) 51.7% 51.1% 50.7%
Household Size: 2.45 2.75 2.74
Age Profile:
Median Age 49 39 38
0-4 4.5% 5.7% 5.8%
5-14 17% 12.8% 18.1%
15-19 5.2% 6.1% 6.2%
20-24 11.2% 6.6% 14.3%
25-29 12.5% 7.0% 13.7%
30-34 14.5% 7.1% 12.7%
35-39 13.0% 7.2% 11.9%
40-44 12.4% 6.6% 9.7%
45-49 7.2% 6.7% 5.4%
50-54 2.4% 6.4% 2.1%
55-59 7.1% 5.9% 6.1%
60-64 7.1% 5.4% 5.8%
65+ 25.8% 16.2% 17.2%
Birthplace:
Australia 69.5% 72.4% 70.7%
Elsewhere 25.7% 27.6% 29.3%
Indigenous Population: 1.4% 2.9% 3.2%
Family and Household Composition:
Couple family with no children 35.5% 27.5% 26.9%
Couple family with children 27.7% 31.2% 31.5%
One parent family 10.2% 11.9% 11.2%
Other family 0.4% 1.1% 1.0%
Lone person households 22.8% 23.8% 25.6%
Group households 3.5% 4.6% 3.8%
Income:
Median wkly personal income $799 $855 $805
Median wkly household income $1,675 $1,873 $1,746
Less than $650 household wkly income 16.4% 12.9% 16.5%
More than $3,000 household wkly income 21.9% 23.9% 24.3%
Tenure:
Owned outright 42.0% 28.4% 32.1%
Owned with a mortgage 31.6% 36.8% 36.2%
Rented 26.4% 34.8% 31.7%
Dwelling Structure:
Separate House 76.1% 71.7% 73.0%
Semi-Detached 16.0% 13.2% 12.7%
Flat or Apartments 7.9% 15.1% 14.3%
Source: ABS Census of Population and Housing 2021, Think Economics
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3.3 Population Projections
Analysis of population trends and forecasts have been based upon the ABS Estimated
Residential Population (ERP) released April-25 and the latest Queensland Government
Statistician’s Office (QGSO) medium series Population Projections (2023 edition).
Table 3.2 presents the estimated population projections for the trade area over the period
to 2041.
Table 3.2 Population Projections
ERP Forecast Population
2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
Trade Area 53,209 56,806 58,590 59,963 61,130
Estimated Daily Population (Tourists) 11,629 13,887 13,887 13,887 13,887
Total 64,838 70,693 72,477 73,850 75,017
2021-26 2026-31 2031-36 2036-41
Trade Area
Average Annual Growth (No.) 719 357 274 233
Average Annual Growth (%) 1.3% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4%
Source: ABS Estimated Residential Population (ERP) 2025, Forecast ID, QGSO 2023 & Think Economics
The population of the trade area is projected to reach 56,800 people in 2026, which
indicates average annual growth (AAG) of 719 people over the past five years.
The average number of tourists within the trade area per day has also increased from
11,629 people in 2021 to an estimated 13,887 people in 2026. These tourists participate in
the local economy, contributing expenditure and generating demand for a range of goods
and services, therefore contributing to the effective population of the area, particularly for
services such as Indoor Sport and Recreation services.
Going forward, the trade area is forecast to see continued population growth, with the
population projected to increase to 59,590 people in 2031 and to 61,130 people in 2041.
Based on the influence of tourists in the area, the total daily population in Noosa (residents
plus tourist) is projected to grow from approximately 70,693 people in 2026 to just over
75,000 people in 2041. This growth will generate a commensurate increase in related
indoor sport, health and wellness services demand.
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4.0 Competitive Supply
4.1 Existing Supply
This section provides detail of existing Indoors Sports and Recreation facilities in the
defined trade area. This supply assessment does not include all Indoor Sport and
Recreation uses, rather it has focused on specific uses (i.e. gyms, Pilates and yoga studios as
well as sports recovery centres) that are considered common within the sector and that
represent potential future tenant opportunities at the subject site. These facilities vary in
scale, format and offer, noting some overlap between Pilates and yoga studios with some
facilities offering both practices.
Gyms:
There are currently 17 gyms within the trade area with a single approved gym (a 98 Gym
franchise) along Noosa Drive. Most gyms in the trade area range from 200 to 670sqm,
which is typical for most small format commercial gyms within the Australian market. It is
noted that there are none of the large format gyms that offer a complete range of fitness
equipment and scheduled classes (i.e. Goodlife, EMF, etc.), within the trade area (noting
that this is the scale of gym that is aligned with the scale of indoor sport and recreation uses
supported onsite by the Noosa Plan 2020).
Pilates:
There are 24 Pilates studios in the trade area, some of them offering small scale reformer
classes (max of 12 persons) with other larger studios offering yoga and Mat Pilates classes
as well. A large percentage of these studios offer one off passes suitable for tourists in
central Noosa locations appealing to visitors wanting a wellness activity during their visit to
the area.
Yoga
For the purpose of this report, we have assessed Pilates and yoga studios separately noting
that there is an overlap between some the studios. There are currently 19 studios or private
operators offering yoga services (excluding yoga in parks) in the catchment. Majority of the
studios offering yoga practices by itself are smaller scale sole instructors/operators.
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Sports Recovery
Sports recovery facilities that have been considered for the purpose of this assessment does
not include medical grade facilities or day spa focused facilities. The assessment has
focused on physical recovery and conditioning facilities and services, including hot and cold
therapies, saunas, cryotherapy chamber and hyperbaric oxygen therapy.
Four sports recovery facilities have been identified within the trade area, including:
• City Cave Noosa is part of the national City Cave Float & Wellness Centre franchise. City
Cave offers float therapy, infrared sauna, and a range of massage therapies including
remedial, sports, and relaxation massages.
• TH7 Noosa focuses on recovery and longevity with therapies including saunas, ice
baths, compression boots hyperbaric oxygen therapy and red-light therapy.
• Base Health Noosa offers combined services grouping exercise physiology and
physiotherapy together as well as offering contrast therapy, infrared saunas and
compression/percussive therapy.
• It is noted that there is a P3 facility intended to open soon in Noosa, being part of a
larger chain with offerings typically including contrast therapy, infrared saunas,
compression therapy and Hyperbaric Chambers.
Much of the Indoor Sport and Recreation businesses in the trade area are representative of
small businesses. By nature, small businesses have shorter operational spans (on average)
than larger businesses, which can impact the tenancy duration and therefore commercial
demand. The fluctuating nature of small businesses, particularly those Indoor Sport and
Recreation Uses in the area, will require ongoing flexibility and capacity, in terms of
commercial tenancy opportunities, for new businesses to establish in the area in order to fill
capacity requirements left by other business closures.
A summary of the Indoor Sports and Recreation facilities within the trade area is presented
in Table 4.1 and Figure 4.1 following.
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Table 4.1 Existing Gym, Pilates, Yoga and Sports Recovery Centres
Indoor Sports and Recreation Type Address
Gym Name
Move Noosa Health Club 3 Alba Cl, Noosa Heads
LiFT Strength and Conditioning Noosa 15/29 Sunshine Beach Rd, Noosa Heads
Franks Gym 14 Lanyana Way, Noosa Heads
Jetts Noosa 5/5 Gibson Rd, Noosaville
EFM Health Clubs Noosaville 2B/7-9 Gibson Rd, Noosaville
Snap Fitness Noosa 24/7 Unit 17/18 Thomas St, Noosaville
CrossFit Noosa 26 Project Ave, Noosaville
Club Lime Noosaville 2/1 Gateway Dr, Noosaville
BFT Noosa Units 8 & 9/5 Commerce Ct, Noosaville
Vision Performance Training 33 Rene St, Noosaville
Fernwood Fitness Unit 5/8 Selkirk Dr, Noosaville
Noosafit 24-7 Gym Shop T1038/28 Eenie Creek Rd, Noosaville
Base. Training Co 28 Eenie Creek Rd, Noosaville
Jetts Peregian Shop 14/16/1 Ridgeview Dr, Peregian Springs
First Point CrossFit 6 Venture Dr, Noosaville
Pro Movement 4 Project Ave, Noosaville
Fitstop Noosa 3/11 Gibson Rd, Noosaville
Pilates
Noosa Flow Level 2/59 Rene St, Noosaville
Noosa Flow Sunshine Beach 24 Duke St, Sunshine Beach
Bern Pilates and Physio Noosa Springs The Pilates Studio, Links Dr, Noosa Heads
Bare Bones Movement Pilates Noosa Shop 1/2 Lanyana Way, Noosa Heads
Studio Pilates International Noosa 24 Lanyana Way, Noosa Heads
Aloha Active Yoga, HIIT, Reformer Pilates, Strength & Cycle
Studio Noosa Blue Resort, 16 Noosa Dr, Noosa Heads
Classical Pilates Noosa 67 Mary St, Noosaville
The Station Pilates Noosa 15/18 Thomas St, Noosaville
Forme Body 8 Starboard Ave, Noosaville
Poinciana Pilates 23/91 Poinciana Ave, Tewantin
FS8 Noosa EC02, 28 Eenie Creek Rd, Noosaville
Club Pilates 2/7-9 Gibson Rd, Noosaville
KX Pilates Noosa 1/8 Venture Dr, Noosaville
Physio Plus Pilates Noosa 30 Mary St, Noosaville
Unlocked Fitness Noosa 205 Weyba Rd, Noosaville
Active Flow Pilates 3B/2 Balgownie Dr, Peregian Springs
Breeze Pilates by Sam 191 Old Emu Mountain Rd, Peregian Beach
Lean Mumma Peregian Coolum 13 Montreal Dr, Peregian Springs
Pilates. St Andrew’s Recreation Centre, Peregian Springs
Sandra Leigh Training Unit 1/3 Plover St, Peregian Beach
Solis 1/214 David Low Way, Peregian Beach
Pilates Success Shop 3/4 Grebe St, Peregian Beach
Kinected Pilates Studio 18/247 David Low Way, Peregian Beach
Arah Kinetic Movement Therapy Unit 10/9 Fellowship Dr, Doonan
Yoga
Yoga House Oz 6 Peachtree Cres, Peregian Springs
Yoga with Frida Unit 3/3 Petrel St, Peregian Beach
Spirit Mind Body Wellness by Jan Bond 76 Peregian Breeze Dr, Peregian Beach
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Wellness With Amber 5–7 Rufous St, Peregian Beach
Noosa Hinterland Yoga 16 Gumleaf Cl, Doonan
Suncoast Healing & Yoga 121 Tinbeerwah Rd, Tinbeerwah
Revive Naturopathic & Yoga Wellness 8 Brookland Rd, Tinbeerwah
Yoga Central 123 Beddington Road, Doonan
Downward Dog Hot Yoga | Noosa Marina Noosa Marina, Shop 11A, 2 Parkyn Ct, Tewantin
Zenko Yoga Noosa 37 Gibson Rd, Noosaville
Ashtanga Yoga Belaku 2/2 Lanyana Way, Noosa Heads
Little Sanctuary Yoga Noosa 4/28 Sunshine Beach Rd, Noosa Heads
Gena Kenny Yoga Unit 2/14 Nebula St, Sunshine Beach
Sunshine beach Active 59 Parkedge Rd, Sunshine Beach
Love Yourself Yoga Noosa Noosa Chaplin Park, Noosaville
Noosa Collective Energy 2/14 Nannygai St, Noosaville
Yoga and me Unit 1/74 Southern Cross Parade, Sunrise Beach
Aloha Active Yoga, HIIT, Reformer Pilates, Strength & Cycle
Studio Noosa Blue Resort, 16 Noosa Dr, Noosa Heads
Active Flow Pilates 3B/2 Balgownie Dr, Peregian Springs
Recovery Centre
City Cave Noosa 2/11 Gibson Rd, Noosaville
TH7 Noosa 97 Noosa Dr, Noosa Heads
Base Health Noosa 3 Hilton Terrace, Tewantin
Future
Recovery
P3 Noosa (Coming Soon on website) (
Gym
Anytime Fitness 24 Ventura Drive, Noosaville
98 Gym Noosa 97 Noosa Drive, Noosa Heads
Source: Think Economics
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Tr THINK Figure 4.1 ECONOMICS Supply in the trade area ECONOMIC NEEDS ASSESSMENT MARCH 2026 \Cooro Eumundi LEGEND [_] Catchment e Pilates e Gyms © Recovery Centres © Yoga sae 17
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5.0 Demand and Gap Assessment
This section assesses existing and forecast demand for the specified Indoor Sports and
Recreation facilities within the defined trade area. A gap analysis is then undertaken by
comparing projected demand against current provision to determine a gap. The findings
are related to the need conditions for planned and potential Indoor Sport and Recreation
uses at the subject site.
5.1 Gym Demand
According to the Ausplay survey by the Australian Sports Commission 2025, 31% of adults
(aged 15 years and older) regularly attend gyms and fitness classes. It is noted that this
participation rate correlates with household income. In the Fiscal year 2024/2025 if the
annual household income for a family was between $150,000-$199,999, the participation
rate increased to 38.7% and increases further to 42.1% if the household income was in
excess of $200,000.
In this context, if a conservative approach is taken and 31% of the population aged 15+ in
the trade area is assumed to regularly attend gyms/fitness classes, it equates to 14,645
people. This analysis does not include any demand attributed to tourists, with the location
of existing supply indicating that tourists likely have limited to influence on demand for
most gyms in the area.
The following membership to floorspace assumptions are based on a review of relevant
membership and studio supply data of national branded gyms, grouped into average size
of the studios. Some of the portfolios reviewed include Fernwood, F45, Anytime Fitness,
World Gym and Goodlife:
• Small (<400sqm) & Specialist: 1 member per square metre
• Medium (400-1,000sqm) & 24hr gyms: 2 members per square metre
• Large (>1,000sqm): 3 members per square metre
Table 5.1 provides an estimate of the membership base supported by the existing gym
supply in the trade area. This demonstrates that there are only three gyms with a floorspace
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that exceed 400sqm, with most gyms/demand being for smaller local and specialised
facilities.
Table 5.1 Gym Member Estimates
Gym Classification Sqm Members
Pro Movement Small 128 155
EFM Health Clubs Noosaville Small 141 171
BFT Noosa Small 220 267
Lift Strength and Conditioning Noosa Small 230 279
Jetts Peregian Medium 230 541
Move Noosa Health Club Small 250 304
CrossFit Noosa Small 271 329
Fitstop Noosa Small 292 355
Snap Fitness Noosa 24/7 Medium 305 717
Noosafit 24-7 Gym Medium 365 858
Base Training Co Specialist 369 369
Jetts Noosa Medium 379 891
Franks Gym Specialist 380 380
First Point Conditioning Specialist 395 395
Club Lime Noosaville Medium 577 1,356
Vision Performance Training Medium 612 1,438
Fernwood Fitness Medium 669 1,572
Total 10,376
Source: Think Economics
Based on a comparison of demand conditions within the trade area, the estimated
membership capacity of the existing supply, and an average of 610 members per gym
facility (demonstrated by existing supply), there is demand for up to seven additional gyms
within the trade area. This market gap will be reduced to five additional gyms if the two
proposed venues (Anytime Fitness and 98 Gym) are established.
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5.2 Pilates Demand
Pilates and yoga are two popular activities related to health and wellness, particularly
among the 50+ demographic. These activities are popular as they offer low-impact,
flexibility-enhancing, and strength-building exercises suitable for older adults.
Similarly, as with gym participation rates, as household income increases Pilates
participation increases as well. In the household income bracket of $150,000 to $199,999
the Pilates participation rate is 8.4% and increases to 9.5% in the $200K + bracket. Due to
the wealth and additional demand from the tourist population in the trade area a
conservative participation rate of 8% has been assumed.
Based on the catchment estimated population (residents only) and the Aus play
participation rate, an estimated 3,736 residents aged 15 and over are participating in
Pilates currently, with an aging population and rising interest in wellness and preventive
health, the demand for Pilates facilities in the area is expected to be sustained. With
population growth this number is expected to rise to 3,853 by 2031. If an additional 10% of
demand is assumed for the tourist day population, it increases demand to 4,110 and 4,238
for 2026 and 2031 respectively.
Existing Pilates supply in the trade area varies greatly from larger studios to very small
private studios that have limited a maximum of 3 and 4 people per class. Based on a review
of this supply, including the number of classes offered per day and the estimated capacity
per class, an average membership base of 145 people per studio is estimated.
If this membership assumption is applied to the studios across the trade area currently,
there is capacity for 3,360 people, this equates to a current undersupply of 2 studios on
resident population alone rising to 4 studios if demand from tourists is taken into account.
This undersupply is considered demonstrative of an opportunity to establish new Pilates
facilities to meet the existing and growing community demand in the local area.
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5.3 Yoga Demand
Similar to Pilates studios, yoga is a popular activity related to health and wellness,
particularly among the 50+ demographic. Yoga participation rates have a slightly different
correlation rate to household income brackets with participation rates peaking at 6.6% for
the $150,000 to $199,999 bracket before slightly decreasing to 6.4% in the $200K bracket.
Due to the wealth and additional demand from the tourist population in the trade area, a
conservative participation rate of 6% has been assumed.
Based on the catchment estimated population (residents only) and the Ausplay participation
rate of 6%, an estimated 2,802 residents aged 15 and over are participating in yoga
currently. With population growth this number is expected to rise to 2,890 by 2031. If an
additional 5% of demand is assumed from tourists, it increases demand to 2,942 and 3,034
participants for 2026 and 2031 respectively.
There are 19 yoga offering studios of various sizes and offering different classes and tuition
within the trade area. This includes larger studios and sole operators/instructors that may
not work from a commercial tenancy. An average membership capacity of 120 people per
studio is assumed based on a review of class capacity across the studios as well as class
offering, with yoga studios typically being smaller studios compared to Pilates studios.
If this membership assumption is applied to the studios across the trade area currently,
there is capacity for 3,280 people, this equates to a current undersupply of 4 studios on
resident population alone. This undersupply is considered demonstrative of an opportunity
to establish new yoga facilities to meet the existing and growing community demand in the
local area.
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5.4 Sports Recovery Demand
The demand for health and wellness facilities, has surged in recent years especially in older
demographic regions as well as tourist hubs like Noosa and the Sunshine Coast. Both areas
have a high proportion of residents aged 50+ who typically prioritise wellness and
preventive health services to support a healthy, active retirement. This demographic group
is inclined to invest in regular wellness treatments, including spa visits, hydrotherapy, and
saunas, driving steady demand for such facilities.
The Sunshine Coast LGA provides a useful benchmark for assessing market demand, as it
represents a larger urban area and population capacity compared to Noosa, while being a
proximate geographic comparison. Currently, the Sunshine Coast comprises approximately
20 recovery facilities (offering hot and cold pools, saunas and recovery), with an average
rate of provision of 1 facility per 12,000 residents. This includes a mix of large national
brands, such as City Cave and Recovery Room, and smaller local operators.
It is noted that this does not include day spa and beauty treatments facilities, which are
typically subject to different demand drivers.
If this rate of provision is applied to the resident population, the trade area could sustain up
to 5 recovery facilities based on resident population alone, increasing to up to 6 facilities
when demand from tourists is taken into account. This demand compares to 4 existing
facilities and 1 additional planned facility in the area. On this basis, there is an undersupply
of 1 to 2 recovery facilities, depending on the delivery of the planned facility.
It is noted that the opportunity for a recovery centre has been determined based on current
market conditions, with this opportunity further supported by forecast growth in the local
population, particularly the over 50s population, as well as the ongoing increases in
wellness expenditure and participation. These conditions are expected to strengthen the
opportunity over the next several years.
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6.0 Need and Impact Implications
The analysis presented in this report demonstrates that while there are many Indoor Sport
and Recreation tenancies contributing to local supply throughout Noosaville and the
surrounding local area, there remains need for additional supply and flexibility within
commercial spaces in order to respond to this need.
Expenditure and participation across sports, fitness, recovery and wellness activities has
increased substantially over the past five years, with a noticeable supply response in many
areas. This trend is expected to continue increasing, particularly in areas like Noosa where
there are higher proportions of self-funded and active retirees, as well as younger people
with relatively high household incomes and tourists/visitors to the area.
It is essential that there is flexibility and capacity offered across commercial space/tenancies
in order to support existing needs, ongoing growth in demand and the required supply
response, and the natural change in tenancies that will occur as a result of business closures
and new entrants within the Indoor Sport and Recreation sector.
The following provides a summary of the key need conditions supporting the proposed
opportunity for Indoor Sport and Recreation uses at the subject site:
Economic Need:
• A comparison of supply and demand conditions across key Indoor Sport and Recreation
activities demonstrates that there remains a market gap and need for additional supply
within the trade area for indoor sport and recreation uses such as gyms, Pilates and
yoga studios, and recovery/wellness facilities.
• Demand and need conditions are supported by the growing local resident population
as well as tourists in the local area, with tourists demonstrating strong demand for
specific Indoor Sport and Recreation uses such as Pilates studios (as demonstrated by
the location of supply).
• Supply capacity and flexibility is required over the long term in order to maintain the
opportunity for new market entrants in locations that can suitably respond to demand.
• Providing opportunity for Indoor Sport and Recreation uses onsite increases support for
related businesses, including new businesses that will contribute to economic growth.
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• Despite the existing supply provision in the local area, there is a demonstrated
undersupply and need for additional supply based on combined resident and visitor
demand in the area.
Planning Need:
• The proposal is consistent with the intent to offer health and community facilities within
the Major Centre precinct.
• The proposal is also entirely consistent with the following policy intent for the Major
Centre; “The Noosa Junction major centre is characterised by fine grained built form
which lends itself to catering for smaller independent local and boutique retail offerings
as well as smaller office spaces that provide for clusters of health, wellbeing and lifestyle
sectors.”
• While there may be some vacant office/retail capacity within the trade area, little to
none of this capacity offers the same colocation outcome and benefit to the proposal.
Further, the proposal is intended to provide flexibility and capacity over the longer term
for Indoor Sport and Recreation businesses.
• The existing indoor sport and recreation tenancies throughout the local area
demonstrate that the large majority of tenancy demand and need is for relatively small
spaces that are less than 400sqm.
• While the Overall Objective 4a for the Major Centre Zone indicates the intent for retail
showrooms at the subject site (based on the sub precinct), the ongoing vacant status of
those tenancies relevant to this proposal demonstrates that there is a demonstrated lack
of demand and need for these uses onsite, which reduces the employment capacity and
opportunity onsite.
• The proposal does however provide positive alignment with the Overall Objective 2h of
the Noosaville Local Area Plan as it will support employment creation onsite as
intended.
• Overall, the subject site is extremely well suited for the proposed uses, which will fulfill
broad land use intent and objectives for the Major Centre.
Community Need:
• Indoor Sport and Recreation uses are essential to fulfilling overall health and wellness
needs of the community. This requires that there is suitable accessibility, availability,
choice and competition provided across supply within a local area.
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• The location of the subject site, which will collocate the Indoor Sport and Recreation
uses with existing medical and wellness facilities, will benefit the overall wellbeing of
local residents by providing a more complete service offer onsite.
• The community will also benefit from the colocation of the proposed uses within the
Noosa Civic Centre precinct by supporting the opportunity for linked/combined trips
which reduces private transportation and the associated time cost.
• The existing familiarity with the site will enhance the level of convenience offered by the
proposal indoor sport and recreation uses.
• The proposal also supports the opportunity for an expanded range of small businesses
onsite, including support for potential start up and small businesses in the local area,
and the workers that these businesses will employee.
• There is no disbenefit to the community from the proposal being approved.
• It is also noted that no submissions were received against the proposal during public
notification.
In summary, there are considered strong economic, community and planning need
conditions supporting the proposal which will respond to existing need conditions, support
the necessary opportunity for new and relocating Indoor Sport and Recreation businesses in
the future, and fulfil a key community service and benefit based on the accessibility and
colocation benefits that are supported.
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Disclaimers
Inherent Limitations
This report provides a summary of Think Economics research during the course of the work
undertaken for Stockwell under the terms of the engagement contract dated January 2026.
The services provided in connection with this engagement comprise a market research and
advisory engagement, and consequently no opinions or conclusions intended to convey
assurance have been expressed. Think Economics have indicated within this report the
sources of the information provided. We have not sought to independently verify those
sources unless otherwise noted within the report. Think Economics is under no obligation in
any circumstance to update this report, in either oral or written form, for events occurring
after the report has been issued in final form.
The findings in this report have been formed on the above basis.
Third Party Reliance
This report is solely for the purpose for Stockwell information and is not to be used for any
other purpose or distributed to any other party without Think Economics prior written
consent.
This report has been prepared at the request of Stockwell in accordance with the terms of
Think Economics engagement contract dated January 2026. Other than our responsibility
to Panthera Group, neither Think Economics nor any member or employee of Think
Economics undertakes responsibility arising in any way from reliance placed by a third party
on this report. Any reliance placed is that party's sole responsibility.
The contacts at Think Economics in connection with this report are:
Daniel Parker
Partner, Economics
[email protected]
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