Noosa Medihub - Economic Need Assessment (Mar-26) · MCU25/0119

                                                                                   ECONOMIC NEEDS ASSESSMENT
                                                                                                       MARCH 2026




3.3            Population Projections
Analysis of population trends and forecasts have been based upon the ABS Estimated
Residential Population (ERP) released April-25 and the latest Queensland Government
Statistician’s Office (QGSO) medium series Population Projections (2023 edition).
Table 3.2 presents the estimated population projections for the trade area over the period
to 2041.


Table 3.2          Population Projections

                                             ERP                         Forecast Population

                                            2021           2026          2031           2036         2041
 Trade Area                                53,209         56,806        58,590         59,963       61,130
 Estimated Daily Population (Tourists)     11,629         13,887        13,887         13,887       13,887
 Total                                     64,838         70,693        72,477         73,850       75,017


                                                         2021-26        2026-31       2031-36       2036-41
 Trade Area
 Average Annual Growth (No.)                               719            357           274          233
 Average Annual Growth (%)                                   1.3%          0.6%          0.5%        0.4%
Source: ABS Estimated Residential Population (ERP) 2025, Forecast ID, QGSO 2023 & Think Economics



The population of the trade area is projected to reach 56,800 people in 2026, which
indicates average annual growth (AAG) of 719 people over the past five years.


The average number of tourists within the trade area per day has also increased from
11,629 people in 2021 to an estimated 13,887 people in 2026. These tourists participate in
the local economy, contributing expenditure and generating demand for a range of goods
and services, therefore contributing to the effective population of the area, particularly for
services such as Indoor Sport and Recreation services.


Going forward, the trade area is forecast to see continued population growth, with the
population projected to increase to 59,590 people in 2031 and to 61,130 people in 2041.
Based on the influence of tourists in the area, the total daily population in Noosa (residents
plus tourist) is projected to grow from approximately 70,693 people in 2026 to just over
75,000 people in 2041. This growth will generate a commensurate increase in related
indoor sport, health and wellness services demand.




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