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Appendix G. Economic Report
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SERVICE STATION AND CONVENIENCE RETAIL ASSESSMENT 175 Eumundi Noosa Road, Noosaville Prepared for NKS Corporation Pty Ltd 5 DECEMBER 2017 rpsgroup.com.au
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Important Note
Apart from fair dealing for the purposes of private study, research, criticism, or review as permitted under the Copyright
Act, no part of this report, its attachments or appendices may be reproduced by any process without the written consent of
RPS Australia East Pty Ltd. All enquiries should be directed to RPS Australia East Pty Ltd.
We have prepared this report for NKS Corporation Pty Ltd (“Client”) for the specific purpose for which it is supplied
(“Purpose”). This report is strictly limited to the purpose including the facts and matters stated within it and is not to be
used, directly or indirectly, for any other application, purpose, use or matter.
In preparing this report RPS have made certain assumptions. We have assumed that all information and documents
provided to us by the Client or as a result of a specific request or enquiry were complete, accurate and up-to-date. Where
we have obtained information from a government register or database, we have assumed that the information is accurate.
Where an assumption has been made, we have not made any independent investigations with respect to the matters the
subject of that assumption. As such we would not be aware of any reason if any of the assumptions were incorrect.
This report is presented without the assumption of a duty of care to any other person (other than the Client) (“Third Party”).
The report may not contain sufficient information for the purposes of a Third Party or for other uses. Without the prior
written consent of RPS Australia East Pty Ltd:
(a) this report may not be relied on by a Third Party; and
(b) RPS Australia East Pty Ltd will not be liable to a Third Party for any loss, damage, liability or claim arising out of or
incidental to a Third Party publishing, using or relying on the facts, content, opinions or subject matter contained in
this report.
If a Third Party uses or relies on the facts, content, opinions or subject matter contained in this report with or without the
consent of RPS Australia East Pty Ltd, RPS Australia East Pty Ltd disclaims all risk from any loss, damage, claim or liability
arising directly or indirectly, and incurred by any third party, from the use of or reliance on this report.
In this note, a reference to loss and damage includes past and prospective economic loss, loss of profits, damage to
property, injury to any person (including death) costs and expenses incurred in taking measures to prevent, mitigate or
rectify any harm, loss of opportunity, legal costs, compensation, interest and any other direct, indirect, consequential or
financial or other loss.
Prepared by: Prepared for:
RPS AUSTRALIA EAST PTY LTD NKS CORPORATION PTY LTD
Suite 18, 455 Brunswick Street L19 Riverside Centre
Fortitude Valley, Q, 4006 123 Eagle Street
Brisbane, Q, 4000
T: +61 7 3237 8899
F: +61 7 3237 8833 T: 07 3230 0513
E: [email protected] E: [email protected]
Client Manager: Mark Wallace Client Contact: Brad Hanson
Project Number: 138303-1
Date: 5 December 2017
rpsgroup.com.au
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Document Status Version Purpose of Document Orig Review Review Date DraftA Draft report for client review MW AL 21.11.17 FINAL Final report for client submission MW AL 1.12.2017 Approval for Issue Name Signature Date rpsgroup.com.au
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Contents
SUMMARY ......................................................................................................................................................... 1
1.0 INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................................................... 3
1.1 Project Context ............................................................................................................................. 3
1.2 Glossary and Abbreviations ....................................................................................................... 3
1.3 Site Context .................................................................................................................................. 3
1.4 Development Concept ................................................................................................................. 7
2.0 SERVICE STATION NEED ...................................................................................................................... 8
2.1 Study Area .................................................................................................................................... 8
2.2 Study Area Population ................................................................................................................. 8
2.3 Household Expenditure .............................................................................................................10
2.3.1 MarketInfo ..........................................................................................................................10
2.3.2 Study Area Fuel Expenditure and Usage ..........................................................................11
2.4 Non-Passenger Vehicle Fuel Demand .....................................................................................11
2.5 Service Station Supply ..............................................................................................................12
2.6 Supply Gap and Need for Additional Service Stations ..........................................................15
2.7 Findings ......................................................................................................................................17
3.0 RETAIL NEED AND IMPACT ................................................................................................................18
3.1 Expenditure.................................................................................................................................18
3.1.1 Local Catchment Only........................................................................................................18
3.1.2 Current and Projected Expenditure Pool ...........................................................................18
3.2 Market Shares and Locally Retained Expenditure..................................................................20
3.2.1 Market Shares ....................................................................................................................20
3.2.2 Locally Retained Expenditure ............................................................................................20
3.3 Existing Informal Retail Uses on the Subject Site ..................................................................21
3.4 Trading Comparison ..................................................................................................................22
3.5 Key Findings ...............................................................................................................................22
4.0 CONCLUSIONS .....................................................................................................................................23
Tables
Table 1 Residential Fuel Expenditure and Usage, Study Area ........................................................................11
Table 2 Study Area Service Stations ................................................................................................................12
Table 3 Service Station Trading Capacity ........................................................................................................15
Table 4 Local Expenditure Retention Rates, Noosaville SA2 Catchment ........................................................20
Table 5 Locally Retained Expenditure, Park Ridge Catchment .......................................................................21
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Figures
FIGURE 1 NOOSAVILLE ZONE MAP, SUBJECT SITE ................................................................................... 4
FIGURE 2 SUBJECT SITE, 175 EUMUNDI NOOSA ROAD, NOOSAVILLE ................................................... 5
FIGURE 3 CURRENT USES, 175 EUMUNDI NOOSA ROAD, NOOSAVILLE ................................................ 6
FIGURE 4 PROPOSED DEVELOPMENT, 175 EUMUNDI NOOSA ROAD, NOOSAVILLE ............................ 7
FIGURE 5 RESIDENTIAL POPULATION, STUDY AREA ................................................................................ 8
FIGURE 6 SERVICE STATION STUDY AREA ................................................................................................. 9
FIGURE 7 NUMBER OF REGISTERED NON-PASSENGER VEHICLES, (EXCLUDING ARTICULATED
TRUCKS), NOOSAVILLE SA2 ..............................................................................................................12
FIGURE 8 SERVICE STATION LOCATIONS, STUDY AREA........................................................................14
FIGURE 9 TOTAL DEMAND, FUEL, STUDY AREA, 2016 TO 2036 .............................................................16
FIGURE 10 FUEL SUPPLY, DEMAND AND GAP, STUDY AREA, 2016 TO 2036 .......................................16
FIGURE 11 LOCAL EXPENDITURE POOL, NOOSAVILLE SA2, 2016 TO 2036 .........................................18
FIGURE 12 NOOSAVILLE SA2 .......................................................................................................................19
FIGURE 13 SHARE OF LOCALLY RETAINED EXPENDITURE, BY DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO, 2018 .22
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Service Station and Convenience Retail Assessment
175 Eumundi Noosa Road, Noosaville
Summary
The proposed development is located at 175 Eumundi Noosa Road, Noosaville. It will include fuel
bowsers for fuel sales for motor vehicles as well as 123sqm of convenience retail trading area as part of
the service station building.
The Subject Site is located on the southern side of Eumundi Noosa Road and is located as part of the
industrial and employment area that extends south form the road. It is also located opposite Bunnings
Warehouse.
Fuel Need
Noosaville plays a regional role in meeting the service station needs of the Noosa area. The
concentration of service station capacity in Noosaville offsets limited supply in Noosa Heads, Sunshine
Beach and Sunrise Beach. This reflects the employment, industrial and business nature of much of
Noosaville’s urban form, particularly in proximity to the Subject Site.
The residential population of the defined Study Area in 2016 was 20,646. This is projected to grow to
21,975 in 2018 and 23,628 in 2036.
Based on industry standard data for Noosa on household expenditure on fuel retailing, RPS estimates
that residents in the Study Area require 14.7 million litres of fuel in 2016. This is projected to grow to 15.2
million litres in 2018 and 20.2 million in 2036.
The location of the Subject Site means the Proposed Development will provide convenient access for
local businesses to fuel retailing. Discounting demand from articulated trucks which would be unable to
utilise the Proposed Development (and would be serviced primarily by the Caltex Diesel Stop), RPS
estimates that local non-residential fuel demand will increase from 3.7m litres in 2016 to 3.8m in 2018 and
5.2m in 2036.
RPS estimated that servicing capacity of existing service station by adjusting national average
performance for station location, operating hours and bowser numbers. Based on these assumptions, it is
estimated that existing service station have a total fuel capacity of 16.2 million litres of fuel per years.
Adjusting for leakage of expenditure from the Study Area and expenditure coming into the Study Area
(based on Noosaville’s established role and tourist and visitor movements), in 2018 there will be a
shortfall of 4.2 million litres of fuel capacity per year. This is 356,000 litres per month which is above the
sustainable level required to support an additional full-line multi fuel 24 hour Service Station on
the Subject Site.
Convenience Retail Impacts
RPS has assessed shop retail demand in the local Noosaville SA2 (which is smaller than the fuel Study
Area, due to the convenience nature of the proposed retail floor space in the Proposed Development).
Applying industry standard expenditure and local retention rates, RPS estimates that the Noosaville SA2
generated approximately $65.9m of local retial expenditure in 2016. This is projected to grow to $67.8m
in 2018 and $81.8m in 2036.
Currently, the Subject Site accommodates approximately 350sqm of trading area for retail uses. These
uses are informal – in that they are not explicitly recognised or approved in the planning scheme – but
they do currently capture retail expenditure that would otherwise go to formal retailers in the area.
These uses are lower order and informal in nature and therefore likely support a turnover density of
$5,250/sqm. This results in a total supportable retail trade of $1.84m or 2.7% of the locally retailed
expenditure in the local area in 2018.
By comparison, the Proposed Development will include 123sqm of shop retail floor space, trading at
closer to $9,500/sqm in line with industry standards. This will result in the Proposed Development
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Service Station and Convenience Retail Assessment
175 Eumundi Noosa Road, Noosaville
supporting $1.17m of local retail expenditure annually upon commencement of operations. This will
account for only 1.73% to locally retained expenditure in 2018.
2.9%
Share of Locally Retained Expenditure
2.7%
2.5%
2.3%
2.1%
1.9%
1.7%
1.5%
Current Proposed
Development Scenario
Share of Locally Retained Expenditure, by Development Scenario, 2018
Overall, this result means the Proposed Development will draw less retail expenditure away from existing
centres than the current informal retail on the site. Therefore, the Proposed Development will have
less impact on existing centres than current retail offering and will result in some expenditure
flowing back to other Centres.
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Service Station and Convenience Retail Assessment
175 Eumundi Noosa Road, Noosaville
1.0 Introduction
1.1 Project Context
RPS Economics was engaged by NKS Corporation to provide two assessments of the proposed 175 Eumundi
Noosa Road, Noosaville development:
the need for an additional fuel service station (“service station”) within the Study Area; and
the potential impact of the proposed convenience shop retail floor space delivered as part of the service
station.
This report has been prepared by RPS for Asher Capital in response to a request for information from Noosa
Shire Council (Council).
1.2 Glossary and Abbreviations
Council Noosa Shire Council
DDS Discount Department Store
DS Department Stores
GFA Gross Floor Area
HES Household Expenditure Survey
MDS Market Data Systems
SA2 Statistical Area Level 2
sqm Square Metres
1.3 Site Context
The proposed Asher Capital development is located at 175 Eumundi-Noosa Road in the suburb of Noosaville.
It is located on the southern side of the Road, directly opposite Bunnings Warehouse and located as part of
business enterprise and employment activities currently zoned for Industry.
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Service Station and Convenience Retail Assessment
175 Eumundi Noosa Road, Noosaville
Figure 1 Noosaville Zone Map, Subject Site
The Subject Site currently accommodates 728 sqm GFA across four buildings. The largest building (Building
A) is located on the west of the site and includes 423sqm. It houses Manuka Produce, a fruit and vegetable
shop, juice bar and small grocer. It is estimated that the total trading area of Manuka Produce is approximately
250sqm.
Building B, which accommodates 256sqm GFA also houses a barber shop and outfitters which includes the
sales of coffee and clothing. It is estimated that the total trading floor area of this building is 100sqm.
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Service Station and Convenience Retail Assessment
175 Eumundi Noosa Road, Noosaville
Figure 2 Subject Site, 175 Eumundi Noosa Road, Noosaville
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Service Station and Convenience Retail Assessment
175 Eumundi Noosa Road, Noosaville
Figure 3 Current Uses, 175 Eumundi Noosa Road, Noosaville
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Service Station and Convenience Retail Assessment
175 Eumundi Noosa Road, Noosaville
1.4 Development Concept
Asher Capital proposes redeveloping the Subject Site for a Service Station development. This includes
223sqm GFA of floor space supporting the Service Station. Approximately 123sqm of this GFA will be for
convenience retail shopping, in line with standard Service Station development model.
Figure 4 Proposed Development, 175 Eumundi Noosa Road, Noosaville
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Service Station and Convenience Retail Assessment
175 Eumundi Noosa Road, Noosaville
2.0 Service Station Need
This section profiles the demand and supply of fuel retailing (e.g. Service Stations) within the Study Area. It
includes profiling of local population and business characteristics as well as fuel expenditure, usage and
supply.
2.1 Study Area
RPS has defined a broad Study Area to undertake the assessment for the Service Station need. This reflects
the fact Noosaville is the principal service area for the wider Noosa area and draws demand from locations
including Noosa Heads, Sunshine Beach, Sunrise Beach and Castaway Beach. Similarly, these adjacent
locations and suburbs are structurally undersupplied with Service Stations, with only the Coles Express in
Noosa Heads servicing this area.
As such, it is important to assess the need for additional Service Station capacity for the wider Study Area.
RPS has defined the Study Area as including the following SA2s (Statistical Area Level 2):
Noosaville
Noosa Heads
Sunshine Beach.
Note this Study Area does not represent the Trade Area of the Proposed Development. Instead, it outlines a
broader area of trade self-containment (i.e. a market) in which the dynamics of supply and demand for fuel
retailing can be assessed.
2.2 Study Area Population
The Study Area defined by RPS is home to a residential population of 20,646 in 2016 1.
25,000
20,000
Residential Population
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036
Noosaville Noosa Heads Sunshine Beach
Figure 5 Residential Population, Study Area
1
ABS (2017), Estimated Residential Population, Cat. No. 3218.0, Australian Bureau of Statistics, Canberra
138303-1 | 5 December 2017 8
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Service Station and Convenience Retail Assessment
175 Eumundi Noosa Road, Noosaville
Figure 6 Service station Study Area
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Service Station and Convenience Retail Assessment
175 Eumundi Noosa Road, Noosaville
This will increase to 21,975 in 2018 and 23,268 in 2036 2. The Study Area is broadly an established urban area,
centred around Noosa Heads. The Sunshine Beach area includes coastal residential communities, with most
of non-residential activity located in the Noosaville SA2 centred on Eumundi-Noosa Road. Noosaville is also
home to the largest population in the Study Area.
2.3 Household Expenditure
2.3.1 MarketInfo
This diverse income profile is reflected in the expenditure profile of the Catchment as a whole. RPS has utilised
microsimulation data from Market Data Systems (MDS). MarketInfo is recognised as Australia’s most
advanced local area retail expenditure data and is the industry standard for retail need, sustainability and
impact assessments.
The MarketInfo database is generated by combining and updating data from the Population Census and the
ABS Household Expenditure Survey (HES) on a micro level, using microsimulation modelling techniques. The
Population Census contains detailed regional sociodemographic information but lacks any data on
expenditures. On the other hand, the HES contains detailed expenditure and sociodemographic data but lacks
regional detail. The sociodemographic information contained in both data sources is used by MDS to link the
two data sources. The data generated through the link process contains detailed expenditures on a fine
regional level, and thus combines the virtues of both data sources in a single database.
RPS utilises MarketInfo expenditure data across 75 detailed retail categories, which are consolidated into 18
broad retail categories. These include:
Supermarket and grocery stores
Liquor retailing
Furniture, floor coverings, houseware and textiles
Electrical and electronic goods
Hardware and building supplies
Garden supplies
Clothing retailing
Footwear and other personal accessories
Newspaper and book
Sport and camping equipment
Home Entertainment
Toy and game
Pharmaceutical, cosmetic and toiletries
Other retailing
Cafes, restaurants and catering
Takeaway food services
Household Appliances
Motor vehicle and fuel retailing
2
OESR (2016) Queensland Population Projections, SA2s, Queensland Government, Brisbane
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Service Station and Convenience Retail Assessment
175 Eumundi Noosa Road, Noosaville
2.3.2 Study Area Fuel Expenditure and Usage
Data from MarketInfo 2016 indicates that households in the Study Area spend an average of $891 per person
in 2016 on fuel retailing. This is exclusive of other forms of retailing including motor vehicle, convenience retail
or other goods and services offered at Service Stations.
RPS has applied a real annual retail growth rate of 1% per annum. This in line with industry standards and
long-term averages and ensures the future retail expenditure profiles beyond 2016 are realistic and
appropriate. Based on these assumptions, RPS estimates that the Study Area supported approximately
$18.4 million in residential fuel expenditure in 2016. This is expected to grow to $19.0m in 2018 and
$25.3m in 20363.
RPS has also applied an average price in 2016 for fuel of $1.25. This value is real and net of inflation and
allows for changes in fuel prices to be discounted across the assessment period. This local expenditure
converts to residential demand for fuel of 14.7m litres of fuel (across all fuel types) in 2016. This is
expected to grow to 15.2m litres in 2018 and 20.2m litres in 2036. These details are summarised below.
Table 1 Residential Fuel Expenditure and Usage, Study Area
Indicators 2016 2018 2026 2036
Population 20,646 20,886 21,893 23,268
Residential Fuel Expenditure ($m) $18.4 $19.0 $21.5 $25.3
Residential Fuel Usage (Litres Millions) 14.7 15.2 17.2 20.2
2.4 Non-Passenger Vehicle Fuel Demand
Demand for fuel does not solely originate from households. Non-residential demand can represent a significant
source of fuel consumption in a local economy. In this case, the Subject Site is collocated with significant
industry and business activity in Noosaville.
RPS estimates that the businesses located in the Noosaville Local Area (excluding Noosa Heads and
Sunshine Beach) own 1,409 commercial vehicles and rigid trucks4. This excludes Light and Heavy Articulated
Trucks, which are current serviced by a dedicated Diesel Stop facility located on 13 Venture Street.
Historically, commercial and rigid truck vehicles have grown at an average of 1.8% in the local area, in line
with the broader economy. This is expected to continue as the peri-urban nature of Noosa in South East
Queensland, plus the emergence of major package delivery and online retail services, are expected to
reinforce the need for businesses to possess strong transport capabilities.
Based on this growth rate, the number of registered local commercial vehicles and rigid trucks are expected
to increase to 1,460 in 2018 and 2,013 by 2036.
3
MarketDataSystems (2017) MarketInfo2016, Market Data Systems, Eagle Farm, Queensland
4
ABS (2017) Census of Motor Vehicles, Cat No. 9309.0, Australian Bureau of Statistics, Canberra
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Service Station and Convenience Retail Assessment
175 Eumundi Noosa Road, Noosaville
2,500
2,000
Number of Registered Vehicles
1,500
1,000
500
0
2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036
Figure 7 Number of Registered Non-Passenger Vehicles, (excluding Articulated Trucks), Noosaville
SA2
RPS has applied Queensland average commercial vehicle usage and fuel consumption rates to estimate total
fuel consumption of non-passenger vehicles in Noosaville SA2 5. Based on these rates, RPS estimates that
the non-passenger vehicle fuel consumption is expected to increase from 3.7m litres in 2016 to 3.8m in 2018
and 5.2m in 2036.
2.5 Service Station Supply
RPS identified a total of 7 Service Stations within the Study Area. The location and distribution of these Stations
are outlined in the map below.
No two Stations are alike, with varying numbers of bowsers and operating hours. A summary of the
characteristics of each of the identified Service Stations is outlined in the following table.
Table 2 Study Area Service Stations
Station Address Trading Hours Bowsers
Caltex/Woolworths Noosa Heads 28 Eenie Creek Rd Noosaville 5:30am-9pm 6
7 Eleven Noosaville 139 Eumundi Road Noosaville 24hrs 6
BP Noosaville 54 Mary Street Noosaville 7am-10pm 4
Caltex Noosaville Diesel Stop 13 Venture Street Noosaville 24hrs 2
Noosaville Servo (Liberty) 207 Gympie Terrace, Noosaville 24hrs (Assumed) 4
Shell Noosaville (Opening Soon) 140 Eumundi Noosa Road Noosaville 24hrs 6
Shell/Coles Express Noosa Heads 49 Sunshine Beach Rd, Noosa Heads 6am-8pm 6
Of the 7 service Stations identified, 6 are in Noosaville, highlighting the concentration of Service Station supply
in this area and the role of Noosaville as the service node for the wider region. Of note is the Shell Noosaville
5
ABS (2017) Survey of Motor Vehicle Use, Australia, 12 months ended 30 June 2016, 9208.0 Australian Bureau of Statistics, Canberra
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Service Station and Convenience Retail Assessment
175 Eumundi Noosa Road, Noosaville
which is currently under construction and will commence operation shortly. RPS has considered this Service
Station as an existing Service Station for this Assessment.
Three of the Service Stations operate 24 hours a day (the Liberty Noosaville Servo operating hours could not
be confirmed so are also assumed to be 24hrs for the assessment), with the other Stations having varying
opening and closing times. The operating hours of a Service Station are an important factor in determining the
supply capacity of each Station. RPS has utilised data from Brisbane City Council to determine the likely peak
and non-peak fuel sales distribution for non-24hour Service Stations.
The size of the service stations varies with four of the seven Stations equipped with 6 bowsers (i.e. 12 fuelling
points), with the BP Noosaville, Caltex Noosaville Diesel Stop and Liberty Noosaville Servo all smaller.
As stated previously, RPS has discounted the role of the Caltex Noosaville Diesel Stop from the assessment.
This reflects the fact RPS has only considered non-passenger demand from those vehicles most likely to utilise
a traditional service station environment like that of the Proposed Development. It is assumed that other non-
passenger vehicles, namely large buses and articulated trucks, would utilise the Caltex Noosaville Diesel Stop
for their fuelling requirements.
Finally, the peri-urban nature of Noosa within South East Queensland must be considered when assessing
local fuel demand. Regional areas, particularly those at the end of key transport corridors, have a lower level
of fuel expenditure per person/household than the national average.
RPS has therefore applied a series of weightings to the standard national Service Station fuel throughput to
estimate the current servicing capacity of existing Service Stations. These Weightings include:
Regional Weighting – 20% discount on National Average;
Size Weighting – discount from the National Average for Service Stations with fewer than 6 Bowsers;
and
Trading Hours Weighting – discount from the National Average for Service Stations not operating
24hours.
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Service Station and Convenience Retail Assessment
175 Eumundi Noosa Road, Noosaville
Figure 8 Service Station Locations, Study Area
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Service Station and Convenience Retail Assessment
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Based on these assumptions, the current supply capacity of existing Service Stations is outlined in the following
table.
Table 3 Service Station Trading Capacity
Station Baseline Regional Trading Station Vol/Month Vol/Year
Mthly Weighting Hour Size
Volm Weighting Weighting
Caltex/Woolworths Noosa
350,000 0.8 0.835 1 233,800 2,805,600
Heads
7 Eleven Noosaville 350,000 0.8 1 1 280,000 3,360,000
BP Noosaville 350,000 0.8 0.855 0.65 155,610 1,867,320
Caltex Noosaville Diesel Stop N/A NA
Noosaville Servo (Liberty) 350,000 0.8 1 0.65 182,000 2,184,000
Shell Noosaville 350,000 0.8 1 1 280,000 3,360,000
Shell/Coles Express Noosa
350,000 0.8 0.79 1 221,200
Heads 2,654,400
Total 16,231,320
Overall, RPS estimates that current existing service stations can sustainably provide 16.2m litres of fuel for
passenger and non-passenger demand in the Study Area.
2.6 Supply Gap and Need for Additional Service Stations
Based on the analysis above, RPS has estimated the “Supply Gap” or need for additional service stations.
In terms of demand, RPS has considered both Leakage of demand from the Study Area and expenditure
coming into the Study Area. A standard leakage of 10% has been assumed for both passenger and non-
passenger demand.
In terms of Beyond Study Area demand, RPS has assumed 20%. This is higher than normal for a Study Area
of this size, but reflects several factors:
Noosaville is the established service node for the entire Noosa region. While demand from locations such
as Noosa Heads and Sunshine Beach are captured within the Study Area, other locations such as
Tewantin and Peregian Beach will generate demand for fuel in Noosaville.
Noosa is recognised as a major tourist destination. In the year ending March 2017, Noosa attracted
882,000 domestic visitors who stayed 3.73m visitor nights. A further 163,000 international visitors spent
almost $1m6. These visitors generate demand for fuel from outside of the Study Area, increasing demand
for Service Station Capacity.
Overall, this results in a net 10% increase in total demand for fuel originating from outside the Study Area.
Adding this to passenger demand in the Study Area and non-passenger demand from Noosaville businesses,
RPS estimates that there is TOTAL Demand for fuel of 19.9m litres in 2016, growing to 20.5m in 2018
and 27.5m in 2036.
6
TRA (2017) National and International Visitor Surveys, March 2017 Tourism Research Australia, Canberra
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Service Station and Convenience Retail Assessment
175 Eumundi Noosa Road, Noosaville
30.0
25.0
Fuel Demand (Litres Millions)
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036
Local Passenger Local Non-Passenger Net Beyond Area
Figure 9 Total Demand, Fuel, Study Area, 2016 to 2036
As a result, current demand for fuel is above the level at which existing Service Stations can accommodate
sustainably. This is currently being addressed by existing centres overtrading, which raises significant price
pressures across the Study Area and results in residents and businesses paying more than the “fair value” for
fuel.
29
27
Fuel (litres Millions, Annual)
25
23
21
19
17
15
2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036
Supply Gap Total Demand Current Supply
Figure 10 Fuel Supply, Demand and Gap, Study Area, 2016 to 2036
By 2018, there will be demand for an additional 4.2m litres of Service Station capacity in the Study
Area. This represents 356,000 litres per month, which is above the sustainable level for a full-line
24hour Service Station within the Noosa market. This gap will continue to grow over time, resulting in a
further Service Station being required by 2023 and a third by 2031.
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Service Station and Convenience Retail Assessment
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2.7 Findings
The assessment by RPS demonstrates that there is sufficient demand for an additional 24hour, full-line Service
Station in Noosaville to support demand generated from passengers in the Study Area and business and
industry activity in the Noosaville local area. The Subject Site is strategically located in the existing cluster of
employment and economic activity, centrally positioned on Eumundi-Noosa Road and opposite Bunnings
Warehouse (a major traffic attractor). This will aid in the convenience by which it services residential and non-
residential demand in the Area.
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175 Eumundi Noosa Road, Noosaville
3.0 Retail Need and Impact
This section evaluates the potential impact of the convenience retail floor space in the Proposed Development
as part of the Service Station. It includes profiling of current uses, and assessment of existing and proposed
retail trading levels to determine the size, if any, of impacts.
3.1 Expenditure
3.1.1 Local Catchment Only
The Proposed Development is planned to provide local convenience retail supporting fuel-based customers
and the local community. As such, the impacts of the convenience retail will be assessed within the context of
the local Noosaville SA2. This area is identified in the following map.
3.1.2 Current and Projected Expenditure Pool
Applying the MarketInfo 2016 expenditure data profiled in section 2.3.1 and the estimated and projected
population for the Noosaville SA2, RPS estimates that local households generate a total retail expenditure
pool in 2016 of $146.9m. This is expected to grow to $151.2m in 2018 and $196.0m in 2036.
$205
$195
$185
Retail Expenditure ($m)
$175
$165
$155
$145
$135
$125
2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036
Figure 11 Local Expenditure Pool, Noosaville SA2, 2016 to 2036
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Figure 12 Noosaville SA2
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3.2 Market Shares and Locally Retained Expenditure
3.2.1 Market Shares
Not all total retail expenditure pool generated in a Catchment is retained in local area. Expenditure “leaks” from
the Catchment for several reasons:
Higher Order Retail – Catchments that include higher order retail – including sub-regional and regional
shopping centres with Discount Department (DDS) and Department Stores (DS) – generally retain higher
shares of total expenditure in the local area. Conversely, if the Catchment lacks higher order retail, the
leakage of expenditure in higher order retail categories tends to be very high (between 90-95%).
Types of Expenditure – the type of expenditure influences how much spending is retained. For example,
supermarket and grocery expenditure is typically retained in local Catchments while more discretionary
expenditure (including appliances and electronics, clothing retailing and sport and camping equipment).
Location of Retail Adjacent the Catchment – in addition to ship retail within the Catchment, retailers
located adjacent or in close proximity to the boundary of the Catchment can play a significant role in
meeting the retail needs of the local population. This adjacent retail floor space needs to be considered
both in terms of the size of the Catchment boundaries and local expenditure retention rates.
Based on these factors, RPS has assumed the following Local Expenditure Retention Rates for the Catchment:
Table 4 Local Expenditure Retention Rates, Noosaville SA2 Catchment
Broad Retail Category Local Retention Rates
Supermarket and grocery stores 90%
Liquor retailing 75%
Furniture, floor coverings, houseware and textiles 15%
Electrical and electronic goods 35%
Hardware and building supplies 35%
Garden supplies 10%
Clothing retailing 50%
Footwear and other personal accessories 50%
Newspaper and book 75%
Sport and camping equipment 35%
Home Entertainment 35%
Toy and game 50%
Pharmaceutical, cosmetic and toiletries 50%
Other retailing 50%
Cafes, restaurants and catering 0%
Takeaway food services 0%
Household Appliances 35%
Motor vehicle and fuel retailing 0%
3.2.2 Locally Retained Expenditure
Applying these Catchments, RPS estimates that approximately $65.9m worth of local expenditure was retained
in the Catchment in 2016. This represents an overall retention rate of approximately 45%. By 2031, the locally
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retained expenditure is projected to grow to $81.8m. This does not include expenditure generated by the local
business and non-residential activity or by-passing traffic and visitors. As such, the results are regarded as
conservative and defensible.
Table 5 Locally Retained Expenditure, Park Ridge Catchment
Retained Expenditure 2016 2018 2026 2031
Supermarket and grocery stores $35,768,057 $36,815,657 $41,322,001 $44,414,454
Liquor retailing $5,117,497 $5,267,382 $5,912,125 $6,354,576
Furniture, floor coverings, houseware and textiles $1,441,699 $1,483,925 $1,665,561 $1,790,208
Electrical and electronic goods $1,655,333 $1,703,815 $1,912,367 $2,055,485
Hardware and building supplies $1,868,654 $1,923,385 $2,158,813 $2,320,374
Garden supplies $195,240 $200,958 $225,556 $242,436
Clothing retailing $4,225,163 $4,348,912 $4,881,232 $5,246,533
Footwear and other personal accessories $1,459,450 $1,502,196 $1,686,069 $1,812,251
Newspaper and book $1,385,280 $1,425,853 $1,600,381 $1,720,150
Sport and camping equipment $1,168,416 $1,202,638 $1,349,844 $1,450,864
Home Entertainment $802,777 $826,289 $927,429 $996,836
Toy and game $542,544 $558,434 $626,788 $673,695
Pharmaceutical, cosmetic and toiletries $4,602,833 $4,737,644 $5,317,545 $5,715,499
Other retailing $4,281,555 $4,406,956 $4,946,381 $5,316,558
Cafes, restaurants and catering $0 $0 $0 $0
Takeaway food services $0 $0 $0 $0
Household Appliances $1,355,263 $1,394,956 $1,565,703 $1,682,877
Motor vehicle and fuel retailing $0 $0 $0 $0
Total $65,869,760 $67,798,998 $76,097,794 $81,792,797
Local Retention Rate 45% 45% 45% 45%
3.3 Existing Informal Retail Uses on the Subject Site
The Subject Site currently accommodates 725sqm of Gross Floor Area. This includes “Manuka Produce” – a
grocer, fruit and vegetable shop and juice bar. This activity is accommodated within Building A and utilises
slightly more than half of the floor area (total 418sqm) for trading floor space (estimated at approximately
250sqm).
Building B includes “Captain Sip Sop’s Barber and Outfitters”. This tenancy includes a barber, clothing retail
and café services. An exact trading area for this Building is unclear, though barber and café uses are excluded
from this assessment. RPS has assumed that 100sqm of floor space in Building B is retail trading area.
This current land use is not approved by Council either specifically or as a permissible use under the Noosa
Plan. It is currently operating and serving the Noosa community as an unapproved, informal activity. Despite
this informality, Manuka Produce is currently drawing expenditure from households and individuals in the
region that is not being spent at formal retail shopping centres and tenancies.
This means that the expenditure directed to current informal retail uses, must be considered when
assessing the potential trading impacts of the proposed 123sqm of convenience shop retail floor space
in the Proposed Development.
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3.4 Trading Comparison
The current grocer on the Subject Site is likely trading at a retail turnover density lower than a supermarket or
speciality shop. The standalone nature of the offering, combined with the inclusion of the juice bar, barber,
clothing retail and other associated uses, means it is expected that the retailers are trading at closer to
$5,250/sqm. This reflects a total annual turnover of $1.84m or 2.71% of the locally retained expenditure
in the catchment in 2018.
By comparison, the Proposed Development will include 123sqm of shop retail floor space, trading at closer to
$9,500/sqm in line with industry standards. This will result in the Proposed Development supporting $1.17m
of local retail expenditure annually upon commencement of operations. This will account for only 1.73% to
locally retained expenditure in 2018.
2.9%
Share of Locally Retained Expenditure
2.7%
2.5%
2.3%
2.1%
1.9%
1.7%
1.5%
Current Proposed
Development Scenario
Figure 13 Share of Locally Retained Expenditure, by Development Scenario, 2018
Overall, this result means the Proposed Development will draw less retail expenditure away from existing
centres than the current informal retail on the site. Therefore, the Proposed Development will have less
impact on existing centres than current retail offering and will result in some expenditure flowing back
to other Centres.
Additionally, with a share of less than 1.8% of locally retained expenditure being captured and supported by
the site, the Proposed Development is minor in scale. In fact, the entirety of this share will be more than offset
by the growth in locally retained expenditure between 2018 and 2020 (2.93% growth over the two years).
3.5 Key Findings
The Proposed Development will provide approximately 123sqm of trading floor space for convenience retail
for the local community. This is less than half the trading floor space in the current informal retail offering on
the Subject Site (250sqm in Building A and 100sqm in Building B). Despite different retail turnover densities
under each scenario, the Proposed Development will have less impact on existing retail centres in Noosaville
than the current offering on the Subject Site, accounting for less than 1.8% of locally retained expenditure in
the area. This share is very small, is less than currently supported on the Site and will have no impacts on
existing retailers in the Catchment.
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4.0 Conclusions
The Proposed Development will meet a growing shortage of service station fuel supply in Noosaville and the
wider Noosa urban area. The Subject Site is strategically located to meet fuel needs of both local residents
and businesses as well as visitors to the area.
The associated convenience retail floor space will represent a net reduction of retail expenditure captured by
the Subject Site. There is currently approximately 350sqm of informal retail floor space on the Subject Site
capturing a total of 2.71% of locally retained retail expenditure in the Noosaville SA2. In comparison, the
Proposed Development will only capture 1.73% of expenditure.
As such, this Proposed Development will have no impact on the retail sustainability of existing formal retailers
within the Noosaville SA2 and will in fact see an increase in the amount of expenditure available to these
retailers in the short term.
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