Reference Document - RAL26/0011 (As Published)

 Has occurred twice in the last 5 years.           Likely                           Likely chance of occurring in most cases.
 Has occurred twice in the last 10 years.          Possible                         Might occur in most cases.
 May occur, and has occurred once in the past 20                                    Not expected to occur in most cases.
                                                   Unlikely
 years.
 May only occur in exceptional circumstances or                                     Will only occur in exceptional circumstances and has
 has occurred only once in the last 50 years or    Rare                             not occurred in most cases.
 more.


As can be inferred from Table H above, the recurrence interval of wildfires (based on available data) suggests a possible
likelihood of wildfire outbreak that will only occur in exceptional circumstances.
Despite this historical event, the following factors indicate that the risk remains tolerable:
      ▪        The absence of recorded bushfire activity over the past seven years suggests that fire occurrence in the locality is
               low/moderate and as detailed corresponds to a likelihood rating of outbreak that will only occur in exceptional
               circumstances. In itself a likelihood rating of this scale could be interpreted as a tolerable risk.

      ▪        The presence of rural residential lots and managed landscapes within the surrounding area reduces available fuel
               and potential fire spread.

      ▪        The site benefits from surrounding road networks and cleared areas, which can act as natural firebreaks and
               facilitate rapid emergency response.

      ▪        Proposed bushfire mitigation measures within Section 7 will ensure that bushfire risk is managed to an tolerable
               level by meeting the adequate construction standards and setbacks outlined in AS3959-2018.

Based on the available data and risk assessment, the likelihood of future bushfire occurrence remains low/moderate, and the
overall bushfire risk to the proposed development is considered tolerable.

6.3       Bushfire Weather & Anticipated Direction of Attack
Observed wind patterns within the subject locality indicate that southerlies are the prevailing wind direction based on data
from the nearest weather station (Tewantin), approximately 5.9km southeast from the subject site).
Historical data over five years indicates that southerly winds is observed most frequently (18.14%) within the locality. During
bushfire season (November average), typical wind speed and direction are observed as light northerlies (10.42%). Figure 9
displays the five-year average wind speed and direction observed at Tewantin station annually and during peak fire season.
During peak bushfire season, predominant northerly wind patterns are expected to drive a potential fire front within hazardous
vegetation in a southern direction. As such, smoke and ember attacks would likely be directed towards the subject site. The lack
of predominant westerly winds in the region during the summer months is expected to reduce the potential for increased
temperatures and decreasing humidity, thereby limiting substantial alterations in FFDI and reducing potential ‘out-of-ordinary’
fire weather conditions. This assessment has adopted an FFDI of 47, which is appropriate and conservative.
Given this analysis, the hazard areas relative to the proposed reconfiguration would be considered a tolerable risk where the
development maintains an adequate setback from hazardous vegetation and the threat of smoke and ember attacks is suitably
mitigated.




www.thereforgroup.com.au      24-0565E/BF | Sunshine Butterflies | Bushfire Management Plan | 12.03.2026 | Version 1.0                23