2015-06-23 I&S Agenda - Item 5 - Local Disaster Management Plan - Attachment 1

2.10.3 Risk methodology – risk calculation table


                                                                                         Consequences
                           Risk Table
                                                           Insignificant      Minor        Moderate        Major       Catastrophic

                           The event will occur at least
              Almost       once per year (Average
                                                           Medium - 42     Medium - 48     High - 69    Extreme - 84   Extreme - 90
              Certain      Recurrence Interval (ARI) < 1
                           year).

                           The event could occur at
              Likely       least once every one to ten      Low - 15       Medium - 45     High - 66     High - 75     Extreme - 87
                           years. (ARI 1-10 years).

                           The event could occur at
              Possible     least once every ten to fifty    Low - 12        Low - 27     Medium - 54     High - 72      High - 81
 Likelihood




                           years. (ARI 10-50 years).

                           The event could occur at
                           least once every fifty to one
              Unlikely                                       Low - 9        Low - 24     Medium - 51    Medium - 60     High - 78
                           hundred years. (ARI 50-100
                           years).

                           The event could occur at
                           least once every one hundred
              Rare                                           Low - 6        Low - 21       Low - 33     Medium - 57    Medium - 63
                           to one thousand years. (ARI
                           100-1000 years).

                           The event may occur at least
              Improbable   once every thousand years or      Low - 3        Low - 18       Low - 30      Low - 36        Low - 39
                           more. (ARl >1000 years).




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