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2022-11-14 GC Agenda - Item 4 - Attachment 2 - Appendix 13 to Attachment 1
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General Committee Agenda
Appendix 13 14 November 2022
Attachment 2 to Item 4
NOOSA SHORT STAY
ACCOMMODATION
ECONOMIC & SOCIAL
ASSESSMENT
NOVEMBER 2022
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Full text of sections 2 to 44 (of 48)
Section 2
NOOSA SHORT STAY ACCOMMODATION ECONOMIC & SOCIAL ASSESSMENT
DOCUMENT CONTROL
Job ID: J002507
Job Name: Noosa Short Stay Accommodation Economic & Social Assessment
Client: Noosa Shire Council
Client Contact: Anita Lakeland
Project Manager: Gavin O’Donovan
Email: [email protected]
Telephone: 1300 799 343
Document Name: Noosa ST Accomm Report Working Final
Last Saved: 8/11/2022 12:35 PM
Version Date Reviewed Approved
Working Draft V1 25/10/2022 KL GO
Working Draft V2 27/10/2022 GO GO
Final 02/11/2022 GO GO
Disclaimer:
Whilst all care and diligence have been exercised in the preparation of this report, AEC Group Pty Ltd does not warrant the
accuracy of the information contained within and accepts no liability for any loss or damage that may be suffered as a result of
reliance on this information, whether or not there has been any error, omission or negligence on the part of AEC Group Pty Ltd
or their employees. Any forecasts or projections used in the analysis can be affected by a number of unforeseen variables, and
as such no warranty is given that a particular set of results will in fact be achieved.
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NOOSA SHORT STAY ACCOMMODATION ECONOMIC & SOCIAL ASSESSMENT
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
BACKGROUND
On July 31, 2020, Noosa Shire Council (Council) adopted a change to make short term accommodation an
inconsistent use in the Low Density Residential (LDR) zone as part of the Noosa Plan 2020 (NP2020) in response
to rising concerns over the impacts of short term accommodation on residential amenity, housing supply and
affordability. Existing use rights mean that those that had short stay prior to the planning scheme amendments
would still be able to offer short stay accommodation.
AEC was engaged by Council to undertake an economic and social impact assessment for input into its monitoring
report on the provisions in Noosa Plan 2000 as they relate to short term accommodation, tourism and housing
supply. This report assesses the recent, current and potential impact of the relevant scheme provisions on short
stay accommodation and the economic and social impacts of maintaining and/or extending these provisions.
MARKET ANALYSIS
The following key findings are evident from the analysis of relevant datasets:
• COVID-19 and subsequent border closures and lockdowns had a profound impact on visitation to Noosa,
including the supply of, and demand for, short stay accommodation.
• However, the number of visitors to Noosa has recovered strongly post-COVID-19, with the extent of the
recovery being much more positive than in SEQ over the past two years since the adoption of NP2020 and
record numbers of visitor nights being recorded in the March quarter 2022.
• The share of paid visitor nights in rented dwellings has increased sharply in Noosa over the past year when
compared with the historical average, with nights spent in short term rentals in January to September 2022
being the highest ever over that period and record occupancy rates in August/September 2022.
• Total dwellings available for short term rental in Noosa increased by 5.7% between April 2020 and October
2022, from 4,754 dwellings to 5,025 dwellings.
• Looking at supply across LDR zones, the number of dwellings used for short term accommodation increased
by 12.1% from 846 dwellings to 948 dwellings (12.1% increase).
• The increase in dwellings available for short term rental between April 2020 (just prior to the introduction of
NP2020 making short term accommodation an inconsistent use in LDR zones) and October 2022 suggests
that NP2020 has not detrimentally impacted on market supply to meet tourism demands.
• In terms of residential dwelling sales volumes, the property market cooled in 2019 and early 2020 in Noosa
but activity jumped from late 2020 for both attached and detached dwellings.
• While changes in Noosa’s residential dwelling sales volumes have tracked relatively consistently with SEQ,
median sales prices in Noosa have recently increased substantially more than in SEQ with the increase
between year ending March 2020 and year ending March 2022 being 56.8% (compared with 26.9% for SEQ).
• The average sales price for a detached house in Noosa in YE March 2022 was 159% higher than in SEQ and
210% higher than in Queensland, while the average sales price for an attached dwelling was 186% higher than
in SEQ and 204% higher than in Queensland.
• There has been no noticeable negative impact of NP2020 on demand or values, with people wanting to buy
more dwellings in Noosa and at considerably higher prices.
• Strong demand has, however, worsened housing affordability for Noosa residents and workers.
• Rental data reveals that Noosa has experienced a consistent annual decline in rental bonds lodged since 2012
in addition to significant increases in median weekly rents (at a faster pace than in SEQ), indicative of a
demand/supply imbalance, with this market imbalance worsening since September 2020 as median weekly
rents have escalated from around $500 per week to $680 per week as at September 2022.
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NOOSA SHORT STAY ACCOMMODATION ECONOMIC & SOCIAL ASSESSMENT
• Combined with dwelling sales market data, rental market data suggests Noosa is experiencing considerable
issues of undersupply of affordable dwellings available for residential or worker use, with considerably higher
dwelling prices and rents than in SEQ exacerbating issues associated with rising costs of living.
• With the existing supply of short stay accommodation, the additional take-up of latent supply within these
premises to achieve increased occupancy, in addition to anticipated new supply from commercial
accommodation providers, visitor demands within Noosa’s carrying capacity should be appropriately met into
the future without the need for additional residential housing stock to be diverted.
CASE STUDY: ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL CONTRIBUTION OF SHORT STAY VS
PERMANENT RENTAL
A comparison of the economic contribution of dwellings used for short stay accommodation versus dwellings used
for long-term tenants has been undertaken across four dwelling sizes – 1 bedroom flat/ units, 2 bedroom flats/
units, 3 bedroom flats/ units/ houses, and 4 bedroom houses. On average per annum:
• Short stay dwellings provide a contribution of between $92,000 (1 bed) and $277,000 (4 bed) in output to
Noosa businesses per dwelling vs between $34,000 (1 bed) and $85,000 (4 bed) for permanent rentals.
• Short stay dwellings provide a contribution of between $48,000 (1 bed) and $146,000 (4 bed) in Gross Regional
Product (GRP) to Noosa per dwelling vs between $17,000 (1 bed) and $43,000 (4 bed) for permanent rentals.
• Short stay dwellings provide a contribution of between 0.48 (1 bed) and 1.45 (4 bed) FTE jobs in Noosa per
dwelling (paying between $35,000 and $106,000 in employee incomes per annum per dwelling) vs between
0.16 (1 bed) and 0.4 (4 bed) FTE jobs for permanent rentals.
Permanent rentals are therefore estimated to provide a contribution of around one third of that of short stay
accommodation. However, there are obvious limitations to this simple comparative assessment. The analysis does
not factor in capacity for visitors to use alternative accommodation. Further, from an economic diversification and
resilience perspective, outside of accommodation spend visitors generally focus their spend on recreational
activities and retail, food, beverage and personal services thus providing limited support to sustain the other sectors
of the economy critical to a functioning and sustainable community. Permanent residents have a more diverse
spend profile across a range of sectors, in addition to providing the local labour base.
It is also important to understand the bigger picture when trying to assess the relative ‘value’ of one land use over
another. A functioning economy and community requires a base mix of land uses of differing economic values.
Some land uses have higher value contributions than others when assessed purely on economic grounds, while
others will have higher value contributions than others when assessed purely on social grounds. As such, it is
extremely difficult to produce quantitative outcomes for the social contribution made from the provision of a short
stay dwelling vs a permanent rental dwelling in Noosa.
While there may be higher economic benefits from offering short stay accommodation vs permanent rentals (noting
the contribution to the local labour pool of permanent rentals may indirectly support higher levels of local economic
activity), having too much short stay accommodation may significantly change the nature of the community by
reducing the sense of community in the local area due to the transient nature of the population. Transients are
unlikely to be committed to the local area and will therefore not want to contribute to its image or identity. They are
likely to expect the local community and businesses to treat them as guests (i.e., a ‘take’ vs ‘give’ mentality).
A permanent resident has a vested interest in contributing to the image and identity of the local area and to maintain
or enhance the local environment and community. They are likely to support local businesses and key services
outside of the hospitality sector, thereby not only being an available labour source but also providing support to a
diversity of economic sectors that enables a variety of job opportunities to be offered across the region. This
includes critical services such as health, education and community care and support.
From a land use planning perspective, all aspects of the economy and community must be considered to ensure
that both the economy and community are functioning and sustainable and achieving (or able to achieve) desired
corporate planning objectives.
iii
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NOOSA SHORT STAY ACCOMMODATION ECONOMIC & SOCIAL ASSESSMENT
IMPACT ASSESSMENT
Economic Impacts
Analysis of visitor, short term rental dwelling and general property market data highlights that the local economy
has bounced back very strongly with visitor nights in short term rentals having returned to pre-COVID-19 levels.
There is insufficient evidence to suggest making short term accommodation an inconsistent use in LDR zones
within NP2020 has had any impact on the performance of the local economy, with visitation to Noosa outperforming
the broader SEQ experience. Further, there is insufficient evidence to suggest making short term accommodation
an inconsistent use in LDR zones within NP2020 has had any impact on the availability of dwellings for either short
stay accommodation or permanent rental.
More broadly, the increasing allocation of housing stock for use as short stay accommodation over the past decade
has resulted in a constrained operating environment for local businesses with an imbalance between the demand
for local workers and the supply of local workers across all sectors of the economy impacted by the lack of available
and affordable housing. Making short term accommodation an inconsistent use in LDR zones within NP2020 will
ensure that no additional housing within LDR zones will be allocated to short stay accommodation with any new
stock available for residents and workers to support improved functioning of the local economy.
Social Impacts
There is a significant impact on traditional residential neighbourhoods from the increased level and type of activity
associated with short stay accommodation, much of which is focussed on noise disturbances, amenity, safety and
security. Most of the impacts relate to resident health and residential amenity, with amenity referring to the ability
for residents to enjoy their homes in a peaceful manner with feelings of community and safety.
AEC’s Cost Benefit Assessment prepared for Council’s Short Stay Letting and Home Hosted Accommodation Local
Law identified the costs and benefits associated with the controls included within the Local Law to better manage
the adverse effects on predominantly permanently occupied residential communities from the increased utilisation
of residential properties for short stay accommodation. It was identified that 10,610 residential properties consisting
of an estimated 26,525 persons would benefit from the Local Law. The quantified resident health and residential
amenity benefits were estimated at $9.56 million per annum and the benefit-cost ratio within Noosa was in excess
of 30 (a value greater than 1 indicates the benefits outweigh the costs). Residents were also identified as having
an enhanced feeling of safety and security as a consequence of the Local Law.
The Local Law has in part dealt with the residential amenity and liveability issues associated with short stay
accommodation occurring within residential zones. The most significant economic and social issue arising out of
the increasing allocation of the housing stock to short stay accommodation is now about ensuring (and securing)
sufficient housing supply to meet the needs of the local economy and community which are being significantly
constrained.
Potential Amendments
While making short term accommodation an inconsistent use in LDR zones within NP2020 will ensure no future
additional supply is allocated to short stay accommodation within LDR zones, housing pressures remain. In
consideration of rising property prices and increased rents, any additional measures to help mitigate against any
further deterioration in housing availability and affordability for residents and workers would be beneficial.
Council is proposing to extend making short term accommodation an inconsistent use in Medium and High Density
Residential and Rural and Rural Residential zones to reduce the increasing pressure on the housing stock from an
increasing number of dwellings being allocated to short stay accommodation.
There is a compelling economic and social argument for this proposal given the identified constraints placed on
the local economy and community from a lack of available and affordable housing for residents and workers.
Securing future housing supply within these zones – in addition to LDR zones – for residents and workers (versus
short stay accommodation) will ease some of the pressures that presently exist. Without further action, it is unlikely
that the identified imbalance in the housing stock will be appropriately addressed and the economy and community
will continue to be constrained.
iv
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NOOSA SHORT STAY ACCOMMODATION ECONOMIC & SOCIAL ASSESSMENT
TABLE OF CONTENTS
DOCUMENT CONTROL .......................................................................................................................................... I
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................................................................................................................ II
TABLE OF CONTENTS .........................................................................................................................................V
1. INTRODUCTION............................................................................................................................................ 1
1.1 BACKGROUND .............................................................................................................................................. 1
1.2 APPROACH .................................................................................................................................................. 1
2. MARKET ANALYSIS..................................................................................................................................... 2
2.1 VISITOR DATA .............................................................................................................................................. 2
2.2 SHORT TERM RENTAL DWELLING DATA .......................................................................................................... 6
2.3 PROPERTY MARKET DATA ........................................................................................................................... 14
2.4 ADDITIONAL TOURISM ACCOMMODATION SUPPLY .......................................................................................... 18
3. CASE STUDY – ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL CONTRIBUTION OF SHORT STAY VS PERMANENT
RENTAL ...................................................................................................................................................... 19
3.1 ECONOMIC CONTRIBUTION.......................................................................................................................... 19
3.2 SOCIAL CONTRIBUTION ............................................................................................................................... 22
4. IMPACT ASSESSMENT.............................................................................................................................. 23
4.1 ECONOMIC IMPACTS ................................................................................................................................... 23
4.2 SOCIAL IMPACTS ........................................................................................................................................ 23
4.3 POTENTIAL AMENDMENTS ........................................................................................................................... 24
REFERENCES...................................................................................................................................................... 25
APPENDIX A: ADDITIONAL DATA ..................................................................................................................... 26
APPENDIX B: INPUT-OUTPUT METHODOLOGY .............................................................................................. 37
APPENDIX C: ECONOMIC IMPACT MODELLING ASSUMPTIONS .................................................................. 40
v
Section 7
NOOSA SHORT STAY ACCOMMODATION ECONOMIC & SOCIAL ASSESSMENT
1. INTRODUCTION
1.1 BACKGROUND
In response to rising concerns over the impacts of short term accommodation on residential amenity, housing
supply and affordability, in late 2019 and early 2020 Noosa Shire Council (Council) made the decision to make
short term accommodation an inconsistent use in Low Density Residential (LDR) zones as part of their proposed
Noosa Plan 2020 (NP2020). Existing use rights mean that those that had short stay prior to the planning scheme
amendments would still be able to offer short stay accommodation.
Short term accommodation would continue to be a consistent use in the Medium and High Density Residential
zones as well as the Rural and Rural Residential zones compromising the purpose of these zones. Conversely,
despite NP2020 dedicating large areas of land within a Tourist Accommodation zone specifically for visitor
accommodation and tourism uses, permanent residential dwellings remain a consistent use, compromising the
tourism purpose of the zone.
On 18 February 2020 the then Minister for State Development, Manufacturing, Infrastructure and Planning advised
Council they could adopt NP2020 subject to a condition to monitor the provisions relating to short term
accommodation, tourism and housing supply for a two year period following its commencement. Council adopted
NP2020 and it commenced on 31 July 2020.
Council is preparing a Short Term Accommodation Monitoring Report, including recommendations to amend
NP2020, which must be submitted to the Minister within six months of the end of the two year monitoring period
(i.e., by 31 January 2023). AEC was engaged by Council to assess the recent, current and potential impact of the
relevant scheme provisions on short stay accommodation and the economic and social impacts of maintaining
and/or extending these provisions.
1.2 APPROACH
In conducting this study, AEC has examined the following data to identify relevant trends:
• Overnight visitor data (domestic and international) in terms of total visitor nights stayed, total visitor nights in
paid accommodation, and total visitor nights in rented houses, units and apartments.
• Short term rental dwelling supply and demand data from AirDNA, in terms of nights available (supply), nights
occupied (demand), revenue and average daily rate (ADR).
• Short term rental dwelling supply data from Council’s Tourism Carrying Capacity Analysis in April 2020 and
October 2022, in terms of number of dwellings available for short term accommodation by location across all
zones as well as in LDR zones specifically.
• Residential dwelling sales and rental data, in terms of number of sales/ bonds lodged as well as sales/ rental
values.
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Section 8
NOOSA SHORT STAY ACCOMMODATION ECONOMIC & SOCIAL ASSESSMENT
2. MARKET ANALYSIS
2.1 VISITOR DATA
2.1.1 Visitor Nights
Both domestic and international visitor nights in Noosa generally trended upwards from 2012 to early 2020, with
the 2019 calendar year experiencing a record number of visitor nights in Noosa at over 5.3 million. However,
international border closures and domestic lockdowns associated with COVID-19 commenced in mid-March 2020
which had an immediate and significant impact on visitor numbers in the June quarter 2020 where only around
200,000 domestic visitor nights were recorded (there were no international visitors due to closed international
borders).
The September and December quarters of 2020 saw domestic visitor nights return to levels approximately 70% of
pre-COVID-19 domestic visitor nights and by 2021 domestic visitor levels were approximately on par with those
from 2019 (bar the September quarter 2021 which was impacted by domestic border restrictions). Recovery in
visitation has continued in 2022 as international borders reopened and the March quarter 2022 delivered a record
high quarter for both domestic visitor nights and total visitor nights.
Figure 2.1. Total Visitor Nights by Quarter, September 2012 to June 2022, Noosa
1,600,000
1,400,000
1,200,000
1,000,000
Nights
800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000
0
Sep Q 2012
Sep Q 2013
Sep Q 2014
Sep Q 2015
Sep Q 2016
Sep Q 2017
Sep Q 2018
Sep Q 2019
Sep Q 2020
Sep Q 2021
Mar Q 2013
Mar Q 2014
Mar Q 2015
Mar Q 2016
Mar Q 2017
Mar Q 2018
Mar Q 2019
Mar Q 2020
Mar Q 2021
Mar Q 2022
Domestic Visitor Nights International Visitor Nights
Source: TRA (2022).
The remainder of this section examines domestic and international visitor nights in aggregate (hereafter referred
to as total visitor nights). For additional data/ graphs of visitor nights for domestic and international visitors
separately, refer to Appendix A.
It should be noted that visitor nights stayed in paid accommodation examine in this section is not equivalent to
nights occupied in the accommodation supply data presented in section 0, as more than one person can stay in
booked accommodation. It is, however, a good indicator of likely trends in demand for paid accommodation.
A comparison of total visitor nights by quarter for Noosa against South East Queensland (SEQ) (Figure 2.2) shows
quarterly change in visitor nights in Noosa generally tracked with the broader SEQ market prior to 2020. However,
Noosa recovered to pre-COVID visitor levels more rapidly than SEQ.
The highest quarterly visitor nights in SEQ since the March quarter 2020 has been 18.1 million visitor nights (June
quarter 2022), below the June quarter 2019 level of 20.9 million visitor nights. Meanwhile, Noosa recorded 1.5
million visitor nights in the March quarter 2022, the highest on record.
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Section 9
NOOSA SHORT STAY ACCOMMODATION ECONOMIC & SOCIAL ASSESSMENT
Figure 2.2. Total Visitor Nights by Quarter, September 2012 to June 2022, Noosa vs SEQ
1,600,000 28,000,000
1,400,000 24,500,000
1,200,000 21,000,000
1,000,000 17,500,000
Nights (Noosa)
Nights (SEQ)
800,000 14,000,000
600,000 10,500,000
400,000 7,000,000
200,000 3,500,000
0 0
Sep Q 2012
Sep Q 2013
Sep Q 2014
Sep Q 2015
Sep Q 2016
Sep Q 2017
Sep Q 2018
Sep Q 2019
Sep Q 2020
Sep Q 2021
Mar Q 2013
Mar Q 2014
Mar Q 2015
Mar Q 2016
Mar Q 2017
Mar Q 2018
Mar Q 2019
Mar Q 2020
Mar Q 2021
Mar Q 2022
Noosa Total SEQ Total
Source: TRA (2022).
As with total visitor nights, visitor nights in paid accommodation in Noosa (Figure 2.3) has also generally tracked
with SEQ, although the recovery in Noosa has been more pronounced since COVID-19.
Noosa averages approximately two-thirds of total visitor nights stayed in some form of paid accommodation,
compared to just over 50% of nights in SEQ.
Figure 2.3. Total Visitor Nights in Paid Accommodation by Quarter, September 2012 to June 2022, Noosa
vs SEQ
1,050,000 15,000,000
875,000 12,500,000
700,000 10,000,000
Nights (Noosa)
Nights (SEQ)
525,000 7,500,000
350,000 5,000,000
175,000 2,500,000
0 0
Sep Q 2012
Sep Q 2013
Sep Q 2014
Sep Q 2015
Sep Q 2016
Sep Q 2017
Sep Q 2018
Sep Q 2019
Sep Q 2020
Sep Q 2021
Mar Q 2013
Mar Q 2014
Mar Q 2015
Mar Q 2016
Mar Q 2017
Mar Q 2018
Mar Q 2019
Mar Q 2020
Mar Q 2021
Mar Q 2022
Noosa Total SEQ Total
Source: TRA (2022).
3
Section 10
NOOSA SHORT STAY ACCOMMODATION ECONOMIC & SOCIAL ASSESSMENT
While the number of nights in paid accommodation in Noosa remains below pre-COVID-19 levels (Figure 2.3),
nights stayed in rented houses, units or apartments reached record highs in the December quarter 2021 and March
quarter 2022, at more than 450,000 nights in each quarter (Figure 2.4). This is counter to the experience in SEQ,
which remains well below pre-COVID-19 levels.
Figure 2.4. Total Visitor Nights in Rented House, Unit or Apartment by Quarter, September 2012 to June
2022, Noosa vs SEQ
500,000 8,000,000
450,000 7,200,000
400,000 6,400,000
350,000 5,600,000
Nights (Noosa)
Nights (SEQ)
300,000 4,800,000
250,000 4,000,000
200,000 3,200,000
150,000 2,400,000
100,000 1,600,000
50,000 800,000
0 0
Sep Q 2012
Sep Q 2013
Sep Q 2014
Sep Q 2015
Sep Q 2016
Sep Q 2017
Sep Q 2018
Sep Q 2019
Sep Q 2020
Sep Q 2021
Mar Q 2013
Mar Q 2014
Mar Q 2015
Mar Q 2016
Mar Q 2017
Mar Q 2018
Mar Q 2019
Mar Q 2020
Mar Q 2021
Mar Q 2022
Noosa Total SEQ Total
Source: TRA (2022).
The share of visitor nights in paid accommodation comprised by rented houses, units or apartments has typically
been in the 30%-40% range in Noosa up to early 2020, although there has been some volatility quarter to quarter
varying as high as around 60% and as low as around 10% (Figure 2.5). The sharp increase in nights stayed in
rented houses, units or apartments in Noosa in the December quarter 2021 and March quarter 2022 saw the share
of paid accommodation increase to 60% and 55%, respectively, in those quarters.
By comparison, the share of visitor nights paid accommodation comprised by rented houses, units or apartments
in SEQ has typically been in the 40%-55% range, with few quarters outside this range (and generally not far outside
this range). Between the June quarter 2020 and March quarter 2022, the share of visitor nights paid
accommodation comprised by rented houses, units or apartments in SEQ dipped to between 20% and 30%, and
only returned to 40% in the June quarter 2022.
It is evident that the Noosa tourism market experience has been much more positive than the SEQ tourism market
experience following COVID-19 over the past two years since the adoption of the NP2020.
4
Section 11
NOOSA SHORT STAY ACCOMMODATION ECONOMIC & SOCIAL ASSESSMENT
Figure 2.5. Total Visitor Nights in Rented House, Unit or Apartment as a Share of Total Nights in Paid
Accommodation by Quarter, September 2012 to June 2022, Noosa vs SEQ
70.0%
60.0%
50.0%
Percent Share of Nights
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
Sep Q 2012
Sep Q 2013
Sep Q 2014
Sep Q 2015
Sep Q 2016
Sep Q 2017
Sep Q 2018
Sep Q 2019
Sep Q 2020
Sep Q 2021
Mar Q 2013
Mar Q 2014
Mar Q 2015
Mar Q 2016
Mar Q 2017
Mar Q 2018
Mar Q 2019
Mar Q 2020
Mar Q 2021
Mar Q 2022
Noosa Total SEQ Total
Source: TRA (2022).
Key Findings
COVID-19 and subsequent border closures and lockdowns had a profound impact on visitation to Noosa and
SEQ, as well as Queensland and Australia more broadly. However, overnight visitation to Noosa has recovered
faster than in SEQ with the March quarter 2022 seeing record numbers of visitor nights stayed in Noosa.
While Noosa records higher levels of visitor nights in paid accommodation than SEQ (approximately two-thirds
in Noosa compared to just over half in SEQ), rented houses, units and apartments have historically represented
a smaller share of overall nights stayed in paid accommodation. Noosa averaged around 36.4% of nights in paid
accommodation between September 2012 and March 2020 compared to 47.1% in SEQ.
This has changed since the March quarter 2020, with Noosa recording record high number of nights stayed in
rented houses, units and apartments in the December quarter 2021 and March quarter 2022, lifting the share of
paid accommodation for this market to 55%-60%. SEQ on the other hand has seen the share of nights stayed
in rented houses, units and apartments to total paid accommodation fall to 20%-30%, with only the June quarter
2022 seeing this share rise above 40% since COVID-19.
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Section 12
NOOSA SHORT STAY ACCOMMODATION ECONOMIC & SOCIAL ASSESSMENT
2.2 SHORT TERM RENTAL DWELLING DATA
2.2.1 Trends in Supply and Demand of Short Term Rental Dwellings
Analysis of monthly data from AirDNA of nights available (supply) and nights occupied (demand) across Noosa for
short term rental dwellings listed on Airbnb and Stayz/Vrbo indicates that prior to January 2020 both supply and
demand generally trended upwards, peaking at around 70,000 nights available and around 43,500 nights
demanded in January 2020. However, in early 2020 the global and Australian economy and tourism market was
significantly impacted by COVID-19, including closure of international borders and domestic lockdowns. This saw
the number of short term rental dwelling nights available and occupied in Noosa fall throughout 2020, as shown in
Table 2.1.
Table 2.1. Annual Supply and Demand for Short Term Rental Dwellings in Noosa, 2018 to 2022
Metric 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 (YTD)
Supply (Nights Available) 530,267 645,162 626,252 641,924 467,061
Demand (Nights Occupied) 305,102 375,967 329,558 340,320 316,147
Occupancy Rate (%) 57.5% 58.3% 52.6% 53.0% 67.7%
Notes: YTD = year to date, January to September. June 2020 to September 2022 monthly values are based on the latest (September) data from
AirDNA provided by Noosa Shire Council. Earlier months are inferred estimates based on the monthly change from previous data provided by
Noosa Shire Council, applied to the June 2020 month.
Source: AirDNA data supplied by Noosa Shire Council.
Since July 2021, demand has been steadily increasing and total demand through 2022 year to date (January to
September) of 316,147 nights occupied has exceeded pre-COVID demand (2019) over the same period of 266,286
nights.
The supply of short term rental dwellings has remained at similar levels since January 2020, which has seen
occupancy improve and in September 2022 the occupancy rate for short term rental dwellings was around 85%
(see Figure 2.6). The average occupancy for 2022 year to date of 67.7% is 9.4 percentage points higher than the
occupancy rate recorded in 2019 (see Table 2.1). Increased occupancy has seen some of the latent supply in the
market being taken up.
Figure 2.6. Monthly Supply and Demand of Short Term Rental Dwellings in Noosa, January 2018 to
September 2022
72,000 90%
64,000 80%
56,000 70%
Occupancy Rate (%)
48,000 60%
Nights
40,000 50%
32,000 40%
24,000 30%
16,000 20%
8,000 10%
0 0%
Jul-2018
Jul-2019
Jul-2020
Jul-2021
Jul-2022
Jan-2018
Jan-2019
Jan-2020
Jan-2021
Jan-2022
Apr-2018
Oct-2018
Apr-2019
Oct-2019
Apr-2020
Oct-2020
Apr-2021
Oct-2021
Apr-2022
Supply (Nights Available) Demand (Nights Occupied) Occupancy Rate (%)
Note: June 2020 to September 2022 monthly values are based on the latest (September) data from AirDNA provided by Noosa Shire Council.
Earlier months are inferred estimates based on the monthly change from previous data provided by Noosa Shire Council, applied to the June
2020 month.
Source: AirDNA data supplied by Noosa Shire Council.
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Section 13
NOOSA SHORT STAY ACCOMMODATION ECONOMIC & SOCIAL ASSESSMENT
AirDNA data for the years ending (YE) July 2021 and July 2022 highlight that room rates and revenue in the YE
July 2022 were considerably higher than the YE July 2021. Average daily rates (ADR) for short term rental dwellings
in Noosa were $430 per night in YE July 2021, increasing to just under $500 per night in YE July 2022 (Table 2.2).
Table 2.2. Annual Supply, Demand and Revenue for Short Term Rental Dwellings in Noosa, Year Ended
July 2020 to Year Ended July 2022
Metric Aug 2019 - Jul 2020 Aug 2020 - Jul 2021 Aug 2021 - Jul 2022
Supply (Nights Available) 645,111 601,090 617,704
Demand (Nights Occupied) 344,482 332,199 359,399
Occupancy Rate (%) 53.4% 55.3% 58.2%
Revenue (AU$) n.a. $143,216,424 $177,819,493
ADR (AU$) n.a. $431.12 $494.77
RevPAR (AU$) n.a. $238.26 $287.87
Notes: ADR = Average Daily Rate. RevPAR = Revenue Per Available Room. USD values were converted to AU$ values based on the average
exchange rate between August and July for the respective years.
Source: AirDNA data supplied by Noosa Shire Council.
Figure 2.7 presents a graph of monthly revenue and the average daily rate (ADR) for short term rental dwellings in
Noosa between June 2020 and September 2022 (data for earlier months was not provided) and shows that the
ADR has steadily been increasing since June 2020 as demands and rental prices recover post COVID-19. In
consideration of growing demand in 2022 which has resulted in peak levels of occupancy in recent months (as
outlined in Figure 2.6), the ADR is likely to increase further in the near term.
Figure 2.7. Monthly Revenue and Average Daily Rate for Short Term Rental Dwellings in Noosa, June 2020
to September 2022
$30,000,000 $750
$25,000,000 $625
Average Daily Rate (AU$)
Total Revenue (AU$)
$20,000,000 $500
$15,000,000 $375
$10,000,000 $250
$5,000,000 $125
$0 $0
Jul-2020
Jul-2021
Jul-2022
Jun-2020
Jun-2021
Jun-2022
Aug-2020
Sep-2020
Nov-2020
Dec-2020
Jan-2021
Aug-2021
Sep-2021
Nov-2021
Dec-2021
Jan-2022
Aug-2022
Sep-2022
Oct-2020
Apr-2021
Oct-2021
Apr-2022
Feb-2021
Mar-2021
Mar-2022
May-2021
Feb-2022
May-2022
Revenue (AU$) ADR (AU$)
Notes: ADR = Average Daily Rate. RevPAR = Revenue Per Available Room. USD values were converted to AU$ values based on the monthly
exchange rate for the respective months.
Source: AirDNA data supplied by Noosa Shire Council.
Table 2.3 provides a breakdown of the Noosa short term rental dwelling market by location. Noosa Heads is the
primary destination for visitors seeking short term rental accommodation, accounting for 142,438 nights occupied
and 241,755 nights available in YE July 2022 (~40% of total demand and supply in Noosa for the year). Noosaville
is the second main destination with approximately half the demand and supply of short term rental dwellings of
Noosa Heads, followed by Sunshine Beach. Combined, these three locations account for approximately 75% of
nights occupied and available in Noosa.
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NOOSA SHORT STAY ACCOMMODATION ECONOMIC & SOCIAL ASSESSMENT
Noosa Heads and Noosaville recorded strong growth in short term rental dwelling demand and supply between YE
July 2021 and YE July 2022, while Sunshine Beach recorded a small decline. In keeping with these locations being
the most in demand, they also recorded the highest ADR of the locations examined in Noosa.
In terms of other locations in Noosa:
• Pomona experienced strong growth in demand (32.8%) and supply (44.2%) of short term rental dwellings over
the period.
• Peregian Beach experienced declines in both demand (-4.1%) and supply (-9.1%).
• Cooroy experienced growth in demand (7.9%) but a decline in supply (-4.0%).
• The above three locations of Cooroy (41.5%), Pomona (39.5%) and Peregian Beach (26.1%) also recorded
higher percent growth in ADR between the YE July 2021 and YE July 2022 than the three most popular
destinations of Noosa Heads, Noosaville and Sunshine Beach.
Key Findings
Analysis of trends in short term rental dwelling data highlights that COVID-19, as well as resulting border
closures and domestic lockdowns, had a significant impact on supply, demand and rental prices for short term
rental dwellings. For example, nights occupied fell by 12.3% in 2020 compared to 2019.
The reopening of international borders and relaxing of restrictions in 2022 has seen demand steadily increase
throughout the year with the total nights occupied in short term rental dwellings over the first nine months of
2022 the highest ever recorded over the January to September period and record occupancy rates for short
term rental dwellings were recorded in August and September 2022.
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NOOSA SHORT STAY ACCOMMODATION ECONOMIC & SOCIAL ASSESSMENT
Table 2.3. Annual Supply, Demand and Revenue for Short Term Rental Dwellings by Location, Year Ended July 2021 vs Year Ended July 2022
Metric/ Time Period Pomona Noosa Heads Noosaville Sunshine Beach Peregian Beach Cooroy
Supply (Nights Available)
Aug 2020 - Jul 2021 3,098 218,199 109,581 96,579 53,710 4,824
Aug 2021 - Jul 2022 4,466 241,755 121,461 93,760 48,822 4,633
Annual % Change 44.2% 10.8% 10.8% -2.9% -9.1% -4.0%
Demand (Nights Occupied)
Aug 2020 - Jul 2021 1,780 117,696 59,432 54,892 29,899 2,942
Aug 2021 - Jul 2022 2,364 142,438 70,694 52,387 28,682 3,173
Annual % Change 32.8% 21.0% 18.9% -4.6% -4.1% 7.9%
Occupancy Rate (%)
Aug 2020 - Jul 2021 57.5% 53.9% 54.2% 56.8% 55.7% 61.0%
Aug 2021 - Jul 2022 52.9% 58.9% 58.2% 55.9% 58.7% 68.5%
Annual % Change -7.9% 9.2% 7.3% -1.7% 5.5% 12.3%
Revenue (AU$)
Aug 2020 - Jul 2021 $269,030 $61,227,579 $22,289,473 $25,606,639 $9,792,671 $616,722
Aug 2021 - Jul 2022 $498,511 $82,758,060 $30,827,159 $28,319,033 $11,846,235 $941,415
Annual % Change 85.3% 35.2% 38.3% 10.6% 21.0% 52.6%
ADR (AU$)
Aug 2020 - Jul 2021 $151.14 $520.22 $375.04 $466.49 $327.53 $209.63
Aug 2021 - Jul 2022 $210.88 $581.01 $436.06 $540.57 $413.02 $296.70
Annual % Change 39.5% 11.7% 16.3% 15.9% 26.1% 41.5%
RevPAR (AU$)
Aug 2020 - Jul 2021 $86.84 $280.60 $203.41 $265.14 $182.32 $127.84
Aug 2021 - Jul 2022 $111.62 $342.32 $253.80 $302.04 $242.64 $203.20
Annual % Change 28.5% 22.0% 24.8% 13.9% 33.1% 58.9%
Notes: ADR = Average Daily Rate. RevPAR = Revenue Per Available Room. USD values were converted to AU$ values based on the average exchange rate between August and July for the respective years.
Source: AirDNA data supplied by Noosa Shire Council.
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NOOSA SHORT STAY ACCOMMODATION ECONOMIC & SOCIAL ASSESSMENT
2.2.2 Short Term Rental Dwelling Supply
The AirDNA data presented in the preceding section provides useful insight into how supply and demand for short
term rental dwellings have tracked in recent years. However, this data provides an incomplete picture of total supply
and demand for short stay accommodation (particularly short term rental dwellings) as it captures only a subset of
dwellings (those advertised for short term rent through Airbnb and Stayz/Vrbo).
To provide a more complete, point-in-time representation of properties available for short term rent, Council
prepared a Tourism Carrying Capacity Analysis in April 2020 using a number of data sources to compile a list of
properties identified and verified as undertaking some form of tourist/ visitor accommodation. Council also
acknowledges that additional undetected dwellings were likely to be also undertaking short-term accommodation
but could not be definitively verified at the time the analysis was undertaken. Even so, this analysis is considered
to be a more complete representation of short term accommodation supply than presented in AirDNA data.
The following data sources were used in developing the Tourism Carrying Capacity Analysis:
• Noosa Council rates database – properties identified as undertaking transitory accommodation and paying the
tourism levy.
• Tourism Noosa survey of members – identified properties within resorts and unit complexes operating short-
term accommodation.
• BNB Guard were engaged by Council to undertake website searches for properties listed as available for short-
term accommodation on online booking platforms.
• Online searches for properties listed as available for short-term accommodation including real estate and
property management agencies, holiday management sites and online booking platforms.
The Tourism Carrying Capacity Analysis was also updated by Council for October 2022, providing a point in time
comparison of short term accommodation supply between these two periods.
For the purposes of this assessment, only those properties deemed as dwellings have been included and
summarised in Table 2.4. The table shows that total dwellings available for short term rental in Noosa increased
by 5.7% between April 2020 and October 2022, from 4,754 dwellings to 5,025 dwellings. Of these, apartments
comprised the greatest share at around 57% in both time periods, followed by separate houses (increasing by
18.2%, with the share of supply increasing from 18.6% in April 2020 to 20.8% in October 2022).
Table 2.4. Short Term Rental Dwelling Supply – Number of Dwellings, Noosa, All Zones
Dwelling Type April 2020 October 2022 % Change
Apartment 2,713 2,842 4.8%
Duplex 151 152 0.7%
House 885 1,046 18.2%
Townhouse 925 907 -1.9%
Secondary Dwelling 24 16 -33.3%
Guest Suite 56 62 10.7%
Total Dwellings 4,754 5,025 5.7%
Source: Noosa Shire Council (2020 and 2022).
Looking at supply across LDR zones (Table 2.5), for which the policy was changed in July 2020 to make short term
accommodation an inconsistent use, the number of dwellings used for short term accommodation increased by
12.1% from 846 dwellings to 948 dwellings.
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NOOSA SHORT STAY ACCOMMODATION ECONOMIC & SOCIAL ASSESSMENT
Table 2.5. Short Term Rental Dwelling Supply – Number of Dwellings, Noosa, Low Density Residential Zone
Dwelling Type April 2020 October 2022 % Change
Apartment 50 50 0.0%
Duplex 27 19 -29.6%
House 690 813 17.8%
Townhouse 21 13 -38.1%
Secondary Dwelling 17 10 -41.2%
Guest Suite 41 43 4.9%
Total Dwellings 846 948 12.1%
Source: Noosa Shire Council (2020 and 2022).
A breakdown of short term rental dwelling supply by location in April 2020 and October 2022 across all zones is
presented in Table 2.6 below, while LDR zones are presented in Table 2.7. These tables highlight that:
• Consistent with supply and demand trends from AirDNA data presented in section 2.2.1, Noosa Heads is the
primary market for short term rental dwellings, accounting for 43.6% of all dwellings available for short term
rent in October 2022. Noosaville (26.8% in October 2022) and Sunshine Beach (11.9% in October 2022) are
the next two largest markets.
• Hinterland (65.2%) and Sunrise Beach (27.7%) recorded the largest increase in dwellings available for short
term rent (all zones) between April 2020 and October 2022, while Peregian Beach (-11.9%) and Tewantin (-
4.5%) recorded the largest contractions.
• In terms of dwellings available for short term rent in LDR zones, supply by location is considerably more
dispersed.
• Hinterland (269.2%), Sunrise Beach (88.9%), Sunshine Beach (34.4%) and Marcus Beach-Castaways Beach
(23.9%) all recorded strong increases in the number of dwellings available for short term stay in LDR zones
between April 2020 and October 2022.
Key Findings
The increase in dwellings available for short term stay between April 2020 (just prior to the introduction of
NP2020 making short term accommodation an inconsistent use in LDR zones) and October 2022 suggests that
NP2020 has not detrimentally impacted on market supply to meet tourism demands. Further, it must be noted
that there are likely other factors impacting the tourism market (in particular COVID-19, border closures and
lockdowns) that have influenced supply and demand over the past two and a half years.
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NOOSA SHORT STAY ACCOMMODATION ECONOMIC & SOCIAL ASSESSMENT
Table 2.6. Short Term Rental Dwelling Supply – Number of Dwellings, by Location, All Zones
Dwelling Type/ Noosaville Noosa Heads Sunshine Sunrise Beach Tewantin Marcus Beach- Peregian Hinterland
Time Period Beach Castaways Beach
Beach
April 2020
Apartment 639 1,663 279 48 2 5 77 0
Duplex 24 22 41 14 2 6 42 0
Dwelling House 136 224 148 48 34 44 149 102
Townhouse 532 152 48 54 33 12 94 0
Secondary Dwelling 3 5 2 2 3 1 4 4
Guest Suite 15 12 0 0 15 1 4 9
Total Dwellings 1,349 2,078 518 166 89 69 370 115
October 2022
Apartment 651 1,771 292 47 5 5 71 0
Duplex 22 21 51 21 1 5 31 0
Dwelling House 135 236 197 92 29 54 134 169
Townhouse 527 150 50 45 42 11 82 0
Secondary Dwelling 1 0 3 2 1 1 2 6
Guest Suite 12 11 5 5 7 1 6 15
Total Dwellings 1,348 2,189 598 212 85 77 326 190
% Change
Apartment 1.9% 6.5% 4.7% -2.1% 150.0% 0.0% -7.8% 0.0%
Duplex -8.3% -4.5% 24.4% 50.0% -50.0% -16.7% -26.2% 0.0%
Dwelling House -0.7% 5.4% 33.1% 91.7% -14.7% 22.7% -10.1% 65.7%
Townhouse -0.9% -1.3% 4.2% -16.7% 27.3% -8.3% -12.8% 0.0%
Secondary Dwelling -66.7% -100.0% 50.0% 0.0% -66.7% 0.0% -50.0% 50.0%
Guest Suite -20.0% -8.3% 0.0% 0.0% -53.3% 0.0% 50.0% 66.7%
Total Dwellings -0.1% 5.3% 15.4% 27.7% -4.5% 11.6% -11.9% 65.2%
Source: Noosa Shire Council.
12
NOOSA SHORT STAY ACCOMMODATION ECONOMIC & SOCIAL ASSESSMENT AEC RY
Table 2.6. Short Term Rental Dwelling Supply — Number of Dwellings, by Location, All Zones
Time Period Beach Castaways Beach
Beach
April 2020
Apartment oo tess—— es] |S 0
Duplex 6 0
DwellingHouse | 186 | 224 | | 102
Secondary Dwelling 1 | 4 4
Guestsute | —SSSSCidT=S(“‘éO”O~COCSCOUO(~OTC|~C«tOT™~SSC“‘CW’SCNCONCOCNSCOCSCNC“(‘#ATC*«dCOCté‘é(R
Total Dwellings | 4.349 | 2.078 | S518 | tS} 8] 115
October 20220 | P|
Apartment 6 0
Duplex 6 0
Dwelling House 54 169
Townhouse 4 0
Secondary Dwelling 1 0 3 2 1 1 2 6
Guest Suite | 6 | 41
Total Dwellings | 1348 =|~=2t8o|~SSSOBSSCSYSC“‘i | OOBCSCSC‘aSSSCSC*C‘iSSCSSSC*«*
% Change rs pT
Apartment 0.0% 0.0%
Duplex 16.7% 0.0%
Dwelling House 22.7% 65.7%
Townhouse 8.3% 0.0%
Secondary Dwelling 0.0% 50.0%
Guest Suite 0.0% 66.7%
Total Dwellings 11.6% 65.2%
Source: Noosa Shire Council.
aecgroupltd.com 12Section 19
NOOSA SHORT STAY ACCOMMODATION ECONOMIC & SOCIAL ASSESSMENT
Table 2.7. Short Term Rental Dwelling Supply – Number of Dwellings, by Location, Low Density Residential Zones
Dwelling Type/ Noosaville Noosa Heads Sunshine Sunrise Beach Tewantin Marcus Beach- Peregian Hinterland
Time Period Beach Castaways Beach
Beach
April 2020
Apartment 1 30 0 0 1 0 18 0
Duplex 0 1 0 0 2 1 23 0
Dwelling House 119 212 125 44 34 43 100 13
Townhouse 7 0 1 0 0 0 13 0
Secondary Dwelling 2 5 2 1 2 1 4 0
Guest Suite 14 10 0 0 13 1 3 0
Total Dwellings 143 258 128 45 52 46 161 13
October 2022
Apartment 2 31 0 0 1 0 16 0
Duplex 0 0 0 0 1 1 17 0
Dwelling House 124 220 166 80 26 54 98 45
Townhouse 5 0 0 0 0 0 8 0
Secondary Dwelling 1 0 3 1 1 1 2 1
Guest Suite 11 10 3 4 7 1 5 2
Total Dwellings 143 261 172 85 36 57 146 48
% Change
Apartment 100.0% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -11.1% 0.0%
Duplex 0.0% -100.0% 0.0% 0.0% -50.0% 0.0% -26.1% 0.0%
Dwelling House 4.2% 3.8% 32.8% 81.8% -23.5% 25.6% -2.0% 246.2%
Townhouse -28.6% 0.0% -100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -38.5% 0.0%
Secondary Dwelling -50.0% -100.0% 50.0% 0.0% -50.0% 0.0% -50.0% 0.0%
Guest Suite -21.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -46.2% 0.0% 66.7% 0.0%
Total Dwellings 0.0% 1.2% 34.4% 88.9% -30.8% 23.9% -9.3% 269.2%
Source: Noosa Shire Council.
13
NOOSA SHORT STAY ACCOMMODATION ECONOMIC & SOCIAL ASSESSMENT AEC RY
Table 2.7. Short Term Rental Dwelling Supply — Number of Dwellings, by Location, Low Density Residential Zones
Dwelling Type/ Noosaville Noosa Heads Sunshine Sunrise Beach Tewantin Marcus Beach- Peregian Hinterland
Time Period Beach Castaways Beach
Beach
ERAEOZ CO fd
Apartment — 1 | —C“<~itsSCisLC“(S)3WMCOTUCOUC1)CSC™sC“‘CO 0
Duplex Pt 1 0
DwelingHouse | 19 || 5 a 13
Townhouse | 7ST CASCOCCSSC~C“‘“iSC*d*CRCOC#‘C#O 0
Secondary Dwelling 1 | 4 if 0
Guestsute | 4 ~~~~=~*~<“~*‘sOSC*C*‘(SC# “‘’TWSYU’’N)—sdS[|1|™. | 0
Total Dwellings 43—S)SSSBSSSCSSCBSSCSC“(‘(‘CASSSOSTSCSSC“‘éSOO#*CSSOOCSTO|O
October 20220 P|
Apartment tt 0 0
Duplex Pt 1 0
DwelingHouse | 124 | et | tee | Ls
Townhouse Poe 0 8 0
Secondary Dwelling 1 0 3 1 1 1 2 1
Guest Suite I 1 2
Total Dwellings —O43—S—~=~dSC~“t*é‘“‘ SOCOC*C;S*S*C«S)SC~‘“ a OUtCS*~C<*z TS*«SC“‘é‘ CC
% Change Pf So
Apartment 0.0% 0.0%
Duplex 0.0% 0.0%
Dwelling House 25.6% 246.2%
Townhouse 0.0% 0.0%
Secondary Dweling 0.0% 0.0%
Guest Suite 0.0% 0.0%
Total Dwellings 23.9% 269.2%
Source: Noosa Shire Council.
aecgroupltd.com 13Section 20
NOOSA SHORT STAY ACCOMMODATION ECONOMIC & SOCIAL ASSESSMENT
2.3 PROPERTY MARKET DATA
Property market (sales and rent) data presented in this section are presented as quarterly data but they
represent activity over the 12 months to the quarter. For example, March quarter 2022 data represent annualised
activity from beginning April 2021 to end March 2022. The preceding quarter presented in the series, December
quarter 2021, represent annualised activity from beginning January 2021 to end December 2021.
Caution should thereby be taken in interpreting this time series data, as data is presented over rolling periods
of activity and quarterly change will be influenced by the net difference in activity between the quarter that drops
off the annualised period and activity in the quarter that is added.
2.3.1 Residential Dwelling Sales Activity
Quarterly YE data of sales volumes in Noosa (Figure 2.8) show that the dwelling sales market had cooled in 2019
and early 2020. However, activity jumped from late 2020 through the COVID-19 period, peaking at around 2,800
sales in YE June 2021 (approximately 300 dwelling sales higher than the previous peak in YE September 2017).
Both attached and detached dwellings saw rapid growth in sales volumes during this period.
Figure 2.8. Annual Dwellings Sales Volume by Quarter (Year Ended Volumes), September 2012 to March
2022, Noosa
3,000
2,500
2,000
Sales (Number)
1,500
1,000
500
0
Sep Q 2012
Sep Q 2013
Sep Q 2014
Sep Q 2015
Sep Q 2016
Sep Q 2017
Sep Q 2018
Sep Q 2019
Sep Q 2020
Sep Q 2021
Mar Q 2013
Mar Q 2014
Mar Q 2015
Mar Q 2016
Mar Q 2017
Mar Q 2018
Mar Q 2019
Mar Q 2020
Mar Q 2021
Mar Q 2022
Attached Dwellings Detached Dwellings New House and Land
Source: QGSO (2022).
The trend in changes in Noosa’s dwelling sales volumes has been similar to SEQ since 2012 (Figure 2.9). This has
continued post-COVID-19, with both Noosa and SEQ experiencing significant growth in sales from YE March 2020
to YE June 2021.
Additional detail regarding sales volumes across each property type (attached dwellings, detached dwellings and
new house and land) compared to SEQ is provided in Appendix A, showing how each sub-market in Noosa has
performed relatively consistently with SEQ.
14
Section 21
NOOSA SHORT STAY ACCOMMODATION ECONOMIC & SOCIAL ASSESSMENT
Figure 2.9. Annual Dwellings Sales Volume by Quarter (Year Ended Volumes), September 2012 to March
2022, Noosa vs SEQ
3,300 150,000
2,750 125,000
2,200 100,000
Sales (Noosa)
Sales (SEQ)
1,650 75,000
1,100 50,000
550 25,000
0 0
Sep Q 2012
Sep Q 2013
Sep Q 2014
Sep Q 2015
Sep Q 2016
Sep Q 2017
Sep Q 2018
Sep Q 2019
Sep Q 2020
Sep Q 2021
Mar Q 2013
Mar Q 2014
Mar Q 2015
Mar Q 2016
Mar Q 2017
Mar Q 2018
Mar Q 2019
Mar Q 2020
Mar Q 2021
Mar Q 2022
Noosa Total SEQ Total
Source: QGSO (2022).
While changes in Noosa sales volumes have tracked relatively consistently with SEQ, median sales prices in Noosa
have increased substantially more than in SEQ. Figure 2.10 shows the median sales price for all dwellings in Noosa
reached $1.1 million in YE March 2022, having increased from $720,000 in YE March 2020. This represents a
56.8% increase in dwelling prices, compared to a 26.9% increase in dwelling prices in SEQ over the same period.
Figure 2.10. Median Dwellings Sales Value by Quarter (YE Values), September 2012 to March 2022, Noosa
vs SEQ
$1,200,000
$1,000,000
$800,000
Median Sales Value
$600,000
$400,000
$200,000
$0
Sep Q 2012
Sep Q 2013
Sep Q 2014
Sep Q 2015
Sep Q 2016
Sep Q 2017
Sep Q 2018
Sep Q 2019
Sep Q 2020
Sep Q 2021
Mar Q 2013
Mar Q 2014
Mar Q 2015
Mar Q 2016
Mar Q 2017
Mar Q 2018
Mar Q 2019
Mar Q 2020
Mar Q 2021
Mar Q 2022
Noosa Total SEQ Total
Source: QGSO (2022).
Time-series comparisons of median sales prices in Noosa compared to SEQ by property type are provided in
Appendix A, with:
• Attached dwelling prices (i.e., units, apartments, townhouses) increasing by 41.4% from $665,000 to $940,000
in Noosa between YE March 2020 and YE March 2022, compared to a 14.2% increase in SEQ.
15
Section 22
NOOSA SHORT STAY ACCOMMODATION ECONOMIC & SOCIAL ASSESSMENT
• Detached dwelling prices (i.e., separate houses) increasing by 65.6% from $755,000 to $1.25 million in Noosa
between YE March 2020 and YE March 2022, compared to a 34.0% increase in SEQ.
Comparison of sales volume and price data by Statistical Area 2 (SA2) presented in Appendix A shows the rapid
lift in median sales value between YE March 2020 and YE March 2022 has occurred across Noosa but is most
pronounced for detached dwellings in Peregian Beach – Marcus Beach (more than doubled) and Sunshine Beach
(79.0% increase), as well as attached dwellings in Peregian Beach – Marcus Beach (73.9% increase).
Key Findings
Noosa has experienced a considerable lift in the demand for dwellings since March 2020. While this increase in
sales volumes followed a similar trend to SEQ, Noosa experienced a significantly higher lift in sales prices
relative to SEQ with sales prices in some areas of Noosa increasing by 70%-100% from March 2020 to March
2022 (e.g., Peregian Beach – Marcus Beach and Sunshine Beach). Across Noosa, detached dwellings
increased in value by 65.6% on average and attached dwellings increased in value by 41.4% on average.
The average sales price for a detached house in Noosa in YE March 2022 was 159% higher than in SEQ and
210% higher than in Queensland, while the average sales price for an attached dwelling was 186% higher than
in SEQ and 204% higher than in Queensland. There has been no noticeable negative impact of NP2020 on
demand or values. People are wanting to buy more dwellings in Noosa and at considerably higher prices. Strong
demand has, however, worsened housing affordability for Noosa residents and workers.
2.3.2 Residential Rental Dwelling Activity
While dwelling sales activity has generally trended upwards in recent years, Noosa’s rental market has seen a
consistent downward trajectory in the number of rental bonds lodged (Figure 2.11). In YE September 2012, Noosa
recorded more than 2,500 bonds lodged, but this decreased to around 1,750 in YE September 2022.
There is a clear link between the reducing number of dwellings available for permanent rental and the increasing
number of dwellings available for short stay accommodation. There was a temporary increase in rental bonds
lodged in the middle of 2020 as some property owners offering short stay accommodation in their residential
dwellings responded to the drop in visitation resulting from border closures and lockdowns to offer permanent
rentals. However, once borders opened up and visitation returned, this additional rental stock was taken off the
market. Encouragingly, there appears to have been a slight uptick in rental bonds lodged over the past year.
Figure 2.11. Rental Bonds (YE Volumes) by Property Type, September 2012 to September 2022, Noosa
3,000
2,500
2,000
Bonds Lodged
1,500
1,000
500
0
Sep Q 2012
Sep Q 2013
Sep Q 2014
Sep Q 2015
Sep Q 2016
Sep Q 2017
Sep Q 2018
Sep Q 2019
Sep Q 2020
Sep Q 2021
Sep Q 2022
Mar Q 2013
Mar Q 2014
Mar Q 2015
Mar Q 2016
Mar Q 2017
Mar Q 2018
Mar Q 2019
Mar Q 2020
Mar Q 2021
Mar Q 2022
1 Bedroom Flat/ Unit 2 Bedroom Flat/ Unit 3 Bedroom Flat/ Unit
2 Bedroom House 3 Bedroom House 4 Bedroom House
2 Bedroom Townhouse 3 Bedroom Townhouse
Source: QGSO (2022).
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NOOSA SHORT STAY ACCOMMODATION ECONOMIC & SOCIAL ASSESSMENT
The persistent downward trend in rental bonds lodged contrasts with the experience in broader SEQ, which
generally was trending upwards until the middle of 2020 after which it has been trending lower (Figure 2.12). The
persistent decline in the availability of rental dwellings in Noosa has created issues within the local economy as
residents and workers wanting to live in Noosa are unable to access appropriate residential accommodation.
Additional detail regarding rental bonds lodged for two bedroom flats/ units and three bedroom houses compared
to SEQ is provided in Appendix A, showing both sub-markets in Noosa have experienced similar trends in Noosa
and similar levels of disparity relative to SEQ.
Figure 2.12. All Dwellings Rental Bonds Volume by Quarter (Year Ended Volumes), September 2012 to
September 2022, Noosa vs SEQ
3,600 210,000
3,000 175,000
Bonds Lodged (Noosa)
Bonds Lodged (SEQ)
2,400 140,000
1,800 105,000
1,200 70,000
600 35,000
0 0
Sep Q 2012
Sep Q 2013
Sep Q 2014
Sep Q 2015
Sep Q 2016
Sep Q 2017
Sep Q 2018
Sep Q 2019
Sep Q 2020
Sep Q 2021
Sep Q 2022
Mar Q 2013
Mar Q 2014
Mar Q 2015
Mar Q 2016
Mar Q 2017
Mar Q 2018
Mar Q 2019
Mar Q 2020
Mar Q 2021
Mar Q 2022
Noosa Total SEQ Total
Source: QGSO (2022).
While the number of bonds lodged has trended down in Noosa, median weekly rents have been steadily climbing
and at a faster rate than in SEQ (Figure 2.13). In YE September 2012, the median weekly rent (all properties) in
both Noosa and SEQ was around $370 per week. By YE September 2020, the median weekly rent in Noosa had
increased to around $500 per week while in SEQ the median it was $420.
The pace of growth in median weekly rents has increased further in 2021 and 2022 in response to the growth in
property values and a tightening rental market. As with dwelling sales prices, Noosa has experienced a more rapid
increase in median weekly rents than in SEQ, rising from around $500 per week to around $680 per week over the
past two years. By comparison, rental prices in SEQ have increased from $420 per week to around $500 per week.
Additional detail regarding median weekly rents for two bedroom flats/ units and three bedroom houses is provided
in Appendix A, showing both sub-markets in Noosa have experienced similar strong growth relative to SEQ.
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NOOSA SHORT STAY ACCOMMODATION ECONOMIC & SOCIAL ASSESSMENT
Figure 2.13. All Dwellings Median Weekly Rental by Quarter (Year Ended Values), September 2012 to
September 2022, Noosa vs SEQ
$800
$700
$600
Median Rental Price ($/Week)
$500
$400
$300
$200
$100
$0
Sep Q 2012
Sep Q 2013
Sep Q 2014
Sep Q 2015
Sep Q 2016
Sep Q 2017
Sep Q 2018
Sep Q 2019
Sep Q 2020
Sep Q 2021
Sep Q 2022
Mar Q 2013
Mar Q 2014
Mar Q 2015
Mar Q 2016
Mar Q 2017
Mar Q 2018
Mar Q 2019
Mar Q 2020
Mar Q 2021
Mar Q 2022
Noosa Total SEQ Total
Source: QGSO (2022).
Key Findings
Analysis of rental data reveals that Noosa has experienced a consistent annual decline in rental bonds lodged
since 2012 in addition to significant increases in median weekly rents which have consistently grown at a faster
pace than in SEQ, indicative of a demand/supply imbalance. This market imbalance has exacerbated since
September 2020 as median weekly rents have escalated from around $500 per week to $680 per week to YE
September 2022.
Combined with dwelling sales market data, rental market data suggests Noosa is experiencing considerable
issues of undersupply of affordable dwellings available for residential or worker use, with considerably higher
dwelling prices and rents than in SEQ exacerbating issues associated with rising costs of living.
2.4 ADDITIONAL TOURISM ACCOMMODATION SUPPLY
In addition to residential dwellings offering short stay accommodation, tourism demands are met from commercial
accommodation providers such as hotels, motels, caravan parks, backpackers, etc. Additional commercial
accommodation stock is anticipated to meet visitor demands through the medium term, including an identified gap
in the five-star offering, with:
• A 106-room five-star resort being considered by Council at 61 Noosa Springs Drive, Noosa Heads.
• A 178-room and 12 suite hotel and 15 x three-bedroom villa application (Callile Hotel) lodged at 3-7 Serenity
Close, Noosa Heads as a change application to an expired approval.
• A 16 self-contained eco cabin application for short term accommodation at 142 Noosa Drive, Noosa Heads as
part of RACV Resort (at information request stage).
• Preliminary discussions on the redevelopment of 203-207 Gympie Terrace, Noosaville for a 49-room hotel,
conference room and commercial uses.
With the existing supply of short stay accommodation, the additional take-up of latent supply within these premises
to achieve increased occupancy, in addition to anticipated new supply from commercial accommodation providers,
visitor demands within Noosa’s carrying capacity should be appropriately met into the future without the need for
additional residential housing stock to be diverted.
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NOOSA SHORT STAY ACCOMMODATION ECONOMIC & SOCIAL ASSESSMENT
3. CASE STUDY – ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL
CONTRIBUTION OF SHORT STAY VS
PERMANENT RENTAL
3.1 ECONOMIC CONTRIBUTION
3.1.1 Approach
A comparison of the economic contribution of dwellings used for short stay accommodation versus dwellings used
for long-term tenants has been undertaken across four dwelling sizes – 1 bedroom flat/ units, 2 bedroom flats/
units, 3 bedroom flats/ units/ houses, and 4 bedroom houses. In undertaking this comparison analysis:
• The assessment has incorporated the following components for short stay and long-term tenancies:
o Short Stay: Has included expenditure of owners on providing the dwelling for short stay accommodation
(i.e., property management fees, cleaning, maintenance and other incidental costs) as well as expenditure
in Noosa of visitors staying in the dwelling.
o Long-term Tenancies: Has included expenditure of owners on providing the dwelling for long-term tenancy
(i.e., property management fees, maintenance and other incidental costs) as well as expenditure in Noosa
of residents living in the dwelling.
• A range of assumptions have been developed regarding the level of occupancy, rental revenue, owner costs,
visitor expenditure (by expenditure item) and residential expenditure (by expenditure item) in Noosa.
• Expenditure assumed to occur in Noosa was allocated to relevant industries in AEC’s Input-Output model to
assess the annual direct and flow-on economic activity supported in Noosa on average per dwelling. Details
regarding the Input-Output model methodology is provided in Appendix B.
Additional details regarding the specific assumptions used in undertaking modelling is provided in Appendix C.
Input-Output modelling undertaken for this report examines the direct and flow-on impacts across the following
economic measures:
• Output: Refers to the gross value of goods and services transacted, including the costs of goods and
services used in the development and provision of the final product. Output typically overstates the
economic impacts as it counts all goods and services used in one stage of production as an input to later
stages of production, hence counting their contribution more than once.
• Gross product: Refers to the value of output after deducting the cost of goods and services inputs in the
production process. Gross product (e.g., Gross Regional Product (GRP)) defines a true net economic
contribution and is subsequently the preferred measure for assessing economic impacts.
• Income: Measures the level of wages and salaries paid to employees of the industry under consideration
and to other industries benefiting from the project.
• Employment: Refers to the part-time and full-time employment positions generated by the economic shock,
both directly and indirectly through flow-on activity, and is expressed in terms of full time equivalent (FTE)
positions.
3.1.2 Results
Economic modelling indicates that, on average per annum, short stay dwellings provide a contribution of between:
• Approximately $92,000 (1 bed) and $277,000 (4 bed) in output to Noosa businesses per dwelling.
• Approximately $48,000 (1 bed) and $146,000 (4 bed) in GRP to Noosa per dwelling.
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NOOSA SHORT STAY ACCOMMODATION ECONOMIC & SOCIAL ASSESSMENT
• Approximately 0.48 (1 bed) and 1.45 (4 bed) FTE jobs in Noosa per dwelling, paying between $35,000 and
$106,000 in employee incomes per annum per dwelling.
A summary of the direct and flow-on economic contribution per dwelling across different short stay dwelling types
is presented in the following table.
Table 3.1. Average Annual Economic Contribution per Short Stay Dwelling to Noosa
Impact Output GRP Incomes Employment
($) ($) ($) (FTEs)
1 Bed
Initial Stimulus $63,327 $32,376 $25,047 0.36
First Round Impacts $10,104 $4,958 $3,686 0.04
Industry Support Impacts $2,573 $1,235 $922 0.01
Household Consumption Impacts $15,869 $9,309 $5,257 0.07
Total Impact to Noosa $91,872 $47,878 $34,912 0.48
2 Bed
Initial Stimulus $102,660 $52,673 $40,655 0.60
First Round Impacts $16,204 $7,974 $5,910 0.06
Industry Support Impacts $4,110 $1,978 $1,474 0.01
Household Consumption Impacts $25,707 $15,080 $8,516 0.12
Total Impact to Noosa $148,681 $77,705 $56,555 0.79
3 Bed
Initial Stimulus $140,545 $72,345 $55,767 0.82
First Round Impacts $22,050 $10,877 $8,050 0.08
Industry Support Impacts $5,573 $2,687 $2,001 0.02
Household Consumption Impacts $35,221 $20,661 $11,668 0.16
Total Impact to Noosa $203,389 $106,570 $77,486 1.08
4 Bed
Initial Stimulus $191,633 $99,239 $76,338 1.10
First Round Impacts $29,866 $14,784 $10,921 0.10
Industry Support Impacts $7,513 $3,630 $2,704 0.03
Household Consumption Impacts $48,141 $28,241 $15,949 0.22
Total Impact to Noosa $277,154 $145,894 $105,911 1.45
Source: AEC.
By comparison, long-term tenancy dwellings are estimated to provide a contribution of approximately one third of
that of short stay counterparts. On average, long-term tenancy dwellings are estimated to support between:
• Approximately $34,000 (1 bed) and $85,000 (4 bed) in output to Noosa businesses per dwelling.
• Approximately $17,000 (1 bed) and $43,000 (4 bed) in Gross Regional Product (GRP) to Noosa per dwelling.
• Approximately 0.16 (1 bed) and 0.4 (4 bed) FTE jobs in Noosa per dwelling, paying between $12,000 and
$31,000 in employee incomes per annum per dwelling.
A summary of the direct and flow-on economic contribution per dwelling across different long-term tenancy dwelling
types is presented in the following table.
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NOOSA SHORT STAY ACCOMMODATION ECONOMIC & SOCIAL ASSESSMENT
Table 3.2. Average Annual Economic Contribution per Long-term Tenancy Dwelling to Noosa
Impact Output GRP Incomes Employment
($) ($) ($) (FTEs)
1 Bed
Initial Stimulus $22,246 $10,786 $8,178 0.11
First Round Impacts $5,094 $2,526 $1,788 0.02
Industry Support Impacts $1,417 $670 $508 0.01
Household Consumption Impacts $5,605 $3,288 $1,857 0.03
Total Impact to Noosa $34,362 $17,270 $12,332 0.16
2 Bed
Initial Stimulus $35,075 $17,075 $12,936 0.18
First Round Impacts $8,012 $3,994 $2,822 0.03
Industry Support Impacts $2,216 $1,052 $798 0.01
Household Consumption Impacts $8,859 $5,197 $2,935 0.04
Total Impact to Noosa $54,162 $27,318 $19,491 0.25
3 Bed
Initial Stimulus $43,901 $21,360 $16,184 0.22
First Round Impacts $10,031 $4,997 $3,532 0.03
Industry Support Impacts $2,776 $1,317 $999 0.01
Household Consumption Impacts $11,085 $6,503 $3,672 0.05
Total Impact to Noosa $67,793 $34,177 $24,387 0.31
4 Bed
Initial Stimulus $55,255 $27,018 $20,451 0.28
First Round Impacts $12,587 $6,311 $4,450 0.04
Industry Support Impacts $3,457 $1,648 $1,250 0.01
Household Consumption Impacts $13,994 $8,209 $4,636 0.06
Total Impact to Noosa $85,293 $43,186 $30,787 0.40
Source: AEC.
There are obvious limitations to this simple comparative assessment. While using dwellings for short stay
accommodation purposes is estimated to provide approximately three times the economic contribution compared
to using dwellings for long-term tenancy, the above analysis does not factor in capacity for visitors to use alternative
accommodation. That is, where a dwelling is not available for use as short stay accommodation, visitors may still
be expected to visit Noosa and stay at alternative accommodation with minimal to no change in economic
contribution (and a transfer of rental revenue to another accommodation provider). Likewise, where a dwelling is
taken out of use for long-term tenancy, there may be minimal to no net loss in the number of residents and
household expenditure where tenants are able to find alternative accommodation in Noosa.
The overall implication on the economy from changing use from short stay accommodation to long-term tenancy
(and vice versa) depends on the prevailing visitor accommodation and property market conditions. With rental
prices for long-term tenancy rising rapidly and well above the SEQ average over the past decade, and accelerating
in recent years, there is strong evidence to suggest the property market is experiencing a considerable shortfall in
long-term tenancy accommodation supply for residents and thereby any measures that can assist in expanding
supply of properties for residents will be beneficial. Conversely, visitor data shows that Noosa has recovered in
terms of overall visitor nights faster than the SEQ average, suggesting supply of short stay accommodation is
sufficient to support visitor demand.
From an economic diversification and resilience perspective, outside of accommodation spend visitors generally
focus their spend on recreational activities and retail, food, beverage and personal services thus providing limited
financial support to sustain other sectors of the economy critical to a functioning and sustainable community.
Permanent residents have a much more diverse spend profile across a range of economic sectors including
education, health, digital economy, rural industries and food security, professional services, planning and design,
research and development, etc., in addition to providing the local labour base for all sectors of the economy.
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NOOSA SHORT STAY ACCOMMODATION ECONOMIC & SOCIAL ASSESSMENT
3.2 SOCIAL CONTRIBUTION
It is important to understand the bigger picture when trying to assess the relative ‘value’ of one land use over
another. A functioning economy and community requires a certain mix of land uses of differing economic values.
Some land uses have higher value contributions than others when assessed purely on economic grounds (e.g.,
manufacturing, technology), with some land uses have higher value contributions than others when assessed
purely on social grounds (e.g., open space and land for community facilities and community support organisations).
As such, it is extremely difficult to produce quantitative outcomes for the social contribution made from the provision
of a short stay dwelling vs a permanent rental dwelling in Noosa.
For example, using a parcel of land for industrial development may have a higher value than using that parcel for
sport and recreation purposes. However, if the community is in dire need of sport and recreation facilities to support
liveability and to attract and retain residents and workers then it may have a higher overall value to the economy
and community when considering the other benefits offered.
While there may be higher economic benefits from offering short stay accommodation vs permanent rentals
associated directly with spend of these occupants and by owners on the property (noting the contribution to the
local labour pool of permanent rentals may indirectly support higher levels of local economic activity), having too
much short stay accommodation may significantly change the nature of the community by reducing the sense of
community in the local area due to the transient nature of the population. Transients are unlikely to be committed
to the local area and will therefore not want to contribute to its image or identity. They are likely to expect the local
community and businesses to treat them as guests (i.e., a ‘take’ vs ‘give’ mentality).
A permanent resident has a vested interest in contributing to the image and identity of the local area and to maintain
or enhance the local environment and community. They are likely to support local businesses and key services
outside of the hospitality sector, thereby not only being an available labour source but also providing support to a
diversity of economic sectors that enables a variety of job opportunities to be offered across the region. This
includes critical services such as health, education and community care and support.
From a land use planning perspective, all aspects of the economy and community must be considered to ensure
that both the economy and community are functioning and sustainable and achieving (or able to achieve) desired
corporate planning objectives.
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NOOSA SHORT STAY ACCOMMODATION ECONOMIC & SOCIAL ASSESSMENT
4. IMPACT ASSESSMENT
4.1 ECONOMIC IMPACTS
The Noosa economy has been significantly impacted by a number of factors over the past decade, none more so
than the COVID-19 pandemic. However, analysis of visitor, short term rental dwelling and general property market
data highlights that the local economy has bounced back very strongly following the easing of border and related
restrictions. Visitor nights in short term rental dwellings have returned to pre-COVID-19 levels and the share of
visitors staying in rented houses, units and apartments has also reached record highs. There is insufficient evidence
to suggest making short term accommodation an inconsistent use in LDR zones within NP2020 has had any impact
on the performance of the local economy, with visitation to Noosa outperforming the broader SEQ experience.
Further, there is insufficient evidence to suggest making short term accommodation an inconsistent use in the LDR
zone within NP2020 has had any impact on the availability of dwellings for either short stay accommodation or
permanent rental or the demand for residential dwellings by prospective buyers. The supply of dwellings for short
term accommodation in the LDR zone actually increased between April 2020 and October 2022 due to applications
being made under the superseded planning scheme in the 12 months after NP2020 was adopted. A further increase
in the supply of dwellings for short term accommodation in other zones has also occurred.
More broadly, the increasing allocation of housing stock for use as short stay accommodation over the past decade
has resulted in a constrained operating environment for local businesses with an imbalance between the demand
for local workers and the supply of local workers across all sectors of the economy impacted by the lack of available
and affordable housing. If businesses are unable to operate or are only able to operate on a restricted basis as a
consequence of labour shortages, the economy becomes constrained.
There is a tipping point between the allocation of accommodation supply for visitors versus residents and workers
and the demand from visitors on the economy. Visitors demand a diverse retail offering and efficient and varied
hospitality experiences and food and beverage options. However, if there is insufficient appropriate housing stock
for workers in these sectors, then visitor demands are unable to be met. Council’s Value of Tourism in Noosa 2019
survey of businesses highlighted concerns surrounding housing affordability and supply for workers to meet the
needs of the local economy. In addition, other sectors of the economy developed over time to diversify and provide
increased value add (a key focus of Council’s Economic Development Strategy 2021) will also be constrained in
filling key positions.
Making short term accommodation an inconsistent use in LDR zones within NP2020 will ensure that no additional
housing within LDR zones will be allocated to short stay accommodation with any new stock available for residents
and workers to support improved functioning of the local economy.
4.2 SOCIAL IMPACTS
There is a significant impact on traditional residential neighbourhoods from the increased level and type of activity
associated with short stay accommodation, much of which is focussed on noise disturbances, amenity, safety and
security. Most of the impacts relate to resident health and residential amenity, with amenity referring to the ability
for residents to enjoy their homes in a peaceful manner with feelings of community and safety. Residential homes
should allow their occupants the ability to wind down, relax and sleep with minimal disturbances. Such residential
amenity maximises resident health and wellbeing.
AEC prepared a Cost Benefit Assessment for Council on its Short Stay Letting and Home Hosted Accommodation
Local Law to identify the costs and benefits associated with the controls included within the Local Law to better
manage the adverse effects on predominantly permanently occupied residential communities from the increased
utilisation of residential properties for short stay accommodation. It was identified that there were 10,610 residential
properties consisting of an estimated 26,525 persons that would receive benefit from the Local Law, representing
a significant portion of the local community.
The quantified benefits of the Local Law on resident health and residential amenity within Noosa were estimated
at $9.56 million per annum and the benefit-cost ratio within Noosa was calculated to be in excess of 30 (a value of
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NOOSA SHORT STAY ACCOMMODATION ECONOMIC & SOCIAL ASSESSMENT
greater than 1 indicates that the benefits outweigh the costs). Residents were also identified as having an enhanced
feeling of safety and security as a consequence of the Local Law.
The Short Stay Letting and Home Hosted Accommodation Local Law was introduced by Council The Local Law
has in part dealt with the residential amenity and liveability issues associated with short stay accommodation within
residential zones. The most significant social issue arising out of the increasing allocation of the housing stock to
short stay accommodation is now clearly about ensuring (and securing) sufficient housing supply to meet the needs
of the community. Further, the sense of community is still impacted by the present of inconsistent uses within these
zones.
The lack of appropriate housing supply and deteriorating housing affordability was identified as part of the need to
make short term accommodation an inconsistent use in LDR zones within NP2020. The lack of available and
affordable housing has been further exacerbated in recent years by the rapid escalation in dwelling prices and
rents.
Responses to Council’s community satisfaction survey in June 2021 identified a need for affordable housing for
low income earners, workers in hospitality and retail and youth and housing shortages. Submissions to Council’s
Housing Strategy 2022 also indicated that short stay accommodation has had a direct impact on housing availability
and affordability in Noosa.
4.3 POTENTIAL AMENDMENTS
While making short term accommodation an inconsistent use in the LDR zone within NP2020 will ensure no future
additional supply is allocated to short stay accommodation within the LDR zone, housing pressures remain. In
consideration of rising property prices and increased rents, any additional measures to help mitigate against any
further deterioration in housing availability and affordability for residents and workers would be beneficial.
Council is proposing to extend making short term accommodation an inconsistent use in Medium and High Density
Residential and Rural and Rural Residential zones to reduce the increasing pressure on the housing stock from an
increasing number of dwellings being allocated to short stay accommodation.
There is a compelling economic and social argument for this proposal given the identified constraints placed on
the local economy and community from a lack of available and affordable housing for residents and workers.
Securing future housing supply within these zones – in addition to the LDR zone – for residents and workers (versus
short stay accommodation) will ease some of the pressures that presently exist. Without further action, it is unlikely
that the identified imbalance in the housing stock will be appropriately addressed and the economy and community
will continue to be constrained.
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NOOSA SHORT STAY ACCOMMODATION ECONOMIC & SOCIAL ASSESSMENT
REFERENCES
ABS (2012). Census of Population and Housing 2011 – Employment by Place of Work. Cat. No. 2068.0. Australian
Bureau of Statistics, Canberra.
ABS (2017a). Census of Population and Housing 2016. TableBuilder. Australian Bureau of Statistics, Canberra.
ABS (2017b). Household Expenditure Survey, Australia: Summary of Results, 2015-16. Cat. No. 6530.0. Australian
Bureau of Statistics, Canberra.
ABS (2021a). Australian National Accounts: Input-Output Tables – Electronic Publication, 2018-19 tables. Cat. No.
5209.0.55.001, Australian Bureau of Statistics, Canberra.
ABS (2021b). Labour Force, Australia, Detailed, Quarterly. Cat. No. 6291.0.55.003, Australian Bureau of Statistics,
Canberra.
ABS (2022a). Wage Price Index, Australia. Cat. No. 6345.0, Australian Bureau of Statistics, Canberra.
ABS (2022b). Census of Population and Housing 2021. TableBuilder. Australian Bureau of Statistics, Canberra.
AEC Group Pty Ltd (2021). Cost Benefit Analysis – Proposed Local Law Amendment: Short Stay Letting & Home
Hosted Accommodation, September 2021.
AirDNA (2022). AirDNA Short Term Residential Dwelling Supply and Demand Data. Data supplied by Noosa Shire
Council from AirDNA.
DoESE (2021). Small Area Labour Market Data. Department of Education, Skills and Employment, Canberra.
Flegg, A.T., Lamonica, G.R., Chelli, F.M., Recchioni, M.C. and Tohmo, T. (2021). A new approach to modelling the
input-output structure of regional economies using non-survey methods. Journal of Economic Structures,
2021, 10:12.
Noosa Shire Council (2020). Tourism Carrying Capacity Analysis – April 2020. Noosa Shire Council.
Noosa Shire Council (2022). Tourism Carrying Capacity Analysis – October 2022. Noosa Shire Council.
QGSO (2022). Property Sales and Rental Data. Queensland Government Statistician’s Office, Queensland
Regional Database.
TRA (2022a). National and International Visitor Survey Data. Tourism Research Australia, TRA Online.
TRA (2022b). LGA Profiles, 2019, Noosa. Tourism Research Australia.
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NOOSA SHORT STAY ACCOMMODATION ECONOMIC & SOCIAL ASSESSMENT
APPENDIX A: ADDITIONAL DATA
VISITOR DATA
Domestic Visitor Nights
Figure A. 1. Domestic Visitor Nights by Quarter, September 2012 to June 2022, Noosa vs SEQ
1,600,000 16,000,000
1,400,000 14,000,000
1,200,000 12,000,000
1,000,000 10,000,000
Nights (Noosa)
Nights (SEQ)
800,000 8,000,000
600,000 6,000,000
400,000 4,000,000
200,000 2,000,000
0 0
Sep Q 2012
Sep Q 2013
Sep Q 2014
Sep Q 2015
Sep Q 2016
Sep Q 2017
Sep Q 2018
Sep Q 2019
Sep Q 2020
Sep Q 2021
Mar Q 2013
Mar Q 2014
Mar Q 2015
Mar Q 2016
Mar Q 2017
Mar Q 2018
Mar Q 2019
Mar Q 2020
Mar Q 2021
Mar Q 2022
Noosa Total SEQ Total
Source: TRA (2022).
Figure A. 2. Domestic Visitor Nights in Paid Accommodation by Quarter, September 2012 to June 2022,
Noosa vs SEQ
1,000,000 8,000,000
900,000 7,200,000
800,000 6,400,000
700,000 5,600,000
Nights (Noosa)
600,000 4,800,000
Nights (SEQ)
500,000 4,000,000
400,000 3,200,000
300,000 2,400,000
200,000 1,600,000
100,000 800,000
0 0
Sep Q 2012
Sep Q 2013
Sep Q 2014
Sep Q 2015
Sep Q 2016
Sep Q 2017
Sep Q 2018
Sep Q 2019
Sep Q 2020
Sep Q 2021
Mar Q 2013
Mar Q 2014
Mar Q 2015
Mar Q 2016
Mar Q 2017
Mar Q 2018
Mar Q 2019
Mar Q 2020
Mar Q 2021
Mar Q 2022
Noosa Total SEQ Total
Source: TRA (2022).
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NOOSA SHORT STAY ACCOMMODATION ECONOMIC & SOCIAL ASSESSMENT
Figure A. 3. Domestic Visitor Nights in Rented House, Unit or Apartment by Quarter, September 2012 to
June 2022, Noosa vs SEQ
500,000 2,500,000
450,000 2,250,000
400,000 2,000,000
350,000 1,750,000
Nights (Noosa)
300,000 1,500,000
Nights (SEQ)
250,000 1,250,000
200,000 1,000,000
150,000 750,000
100,000 500,000
50,000 250,000
0 0
Sep Q 2012
Sep Q 2013
Sep Q 2014
Sep Q 2015
Sep Q 2016
Sep Q 2017
Sep Q 2018
Sep Q 2019
Sep Q 2020
Sep Q 2021
Mar Q 2013
Mar Q 2014
Mar Q 2015
Mar Q 2016
Mar Q 2017
Mar Q 2018
Mar Q 2019
Mar Q 2020
Mar Q 2021
Mar Q 2022
Noosa Total SEQ Total
Source: TRA (2022).
Figure A. 4. Domestic Visitor Nights in Rented House, Unit or Apartment as a Share of Total Nights in Paid
Accommodation by Quarter, September 2012 to June 2022, Noosa vs SEQ
80.0%
70.0%
60.0%
Percent Share of Nights
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
Sep Q 2012
Sep Q 2013
Sep Q 2014
Sep Q 2015
Sep Q 2016
Sep Q 2017
Sep Q 2018
Sep Q 2019
Sep Q 2020
Sep Q 2021
Mar Q 2013
Mar Q 2014
Mar Q 2015
Mar Q 2016
Mar Q 2017
Mar Q 2018
Mar Q 2019
Mar Q 2020
Mar Q 2021
Mar Q 2022
Noosa Total SEQ Total
Source: TRA (2022).
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NOOSA SHORT STAY ACCOMMODATION ECONOMIC & SOCIAL ASSESSMENT
International Visitor Nights
Figure A. 5. International Visitor Nights by Quarter, September 2012 to June 2022, Noosa vs SEQ
350,000 14,000,000
300,000 12,000,000
250,000 10,000,000
Nights (Noosa)
Nights (SEQ)
200,000 8,000,000
150,000 6,000,000
100,000 4,000,000
50,000 2,000,000
0 0
Sep Q 2012
Sep Q 2013
Sep Q 2014
Sep Q 2015
Sep Q 2016
Sep Q 2017
Sep Q 2018
Sep Q 2019
Sep Q 2020
Sep Q 2021
Mar Q 2013
Mar Q 2014
Mar Q 2015
Mar Q 2016
Mar Q 2017
Mar Q 2018
Mar Q 2019
Mar Q 2020
Mar Q 2021
Mar Q 2022
Noosa Total SEQ Total
Source: TRA (2022).
Figure A. 6. International Visitor Nights in Paid Accommodation by Quarter, September 2012 to June 2022,
Noosa vs SEQ
300,000 9,000,000
250,000 7,500,000
200,000 6,000,000
Nights (Noosa)
Nights (SEQ)
150,000 4,500,000
100,000 3,000,000
50,000 1,500,000
0 0
Sep Q 2012
Sep Q 2013
Sep Q 2014
Sep Q 2015
Sep Q 2016
Sep Q 2017
Sep Q 2018
Sep Q 2019
Sep Q 2020
Sep Q 2021
Mar Q 2013
Mar Q 2014
Mar Q 2015
Mar Q 2016
Mar Q 2017
Mar Q 2018
Mar Q 2019
Mar Q 2020
Mar Q 2021
Mar Q 2022
Noosa Total SEQ Total
Source: TRA (2022).
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NOOSA SHORT STAY ACCOMMODATION ECONOMIC & SOCIAL ASSESSMENT
Figure A. 7. International Visitor Nights in Rented House, Unit or Apartment by Quarter, September 2012 to
June 2022, Noosa vs SEQ
140,000 7,000,000
120,000 6,000,000
100,000 5,000,000
Nights (Noosa)
Nights (SEQ)
80,000 4,000,000
60,000 3,000,000
40,000 2,000,000
20,000 1,000,000
0 0
Sep Q 2012
Sep Q 2013
Sep Q 2014
Sep Q 2015
Sep Q 2016
Sep Q 2017
Sep Q 2018
Sep Q 2019
Sep Q 2020
Sep Q 2021
Mar Q 2013
Mar Q 2014
Mar Q 2015
Mar Q 2016
Mar Q 2017
Mar Q 2018
Mar Q 2019
Mar Q 2020
Mar Q 2021
Mar Q 2022
Noosa Total SEQ Total
Source: TRA (2022).
Figure A. 8. International Visitor Nights in Rented House, Unit or Apartment as a Share of Total Nights in
Paid Accommodation by Quarter, September 2012 to June 2022, Noosa vs SEQ
90.0%
80.0%
70.0%
Percent Share of Nights
60.0%
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
Sep Q 2012
Sep Q 2013
Sep Q 2014
Sep Q 2015
Sep Q 2016
Sep Q 2017
Sep Q 2018
Sep Q 2019
Sep Q 2020
Sep Q 2021
Mar Q 2013
Mar Q 2014
Mar Q 2015
Mar Q 2016
Mar Q 2017
Mar Q 2018
Mar Q 2019
Mar Q 2020
Mar Q 2021
Mar Q 2022
Noosa Total SEQ Total
Source: TRA (2022).
29
Section 36
NOOSA SHORT STAY ACCOMMODATION ECONOMIC & SOCIAL ASSESSMENT
RESIDENTIAL SALES
Dwelling Sales Volumes
Figure A. 9. Annual Attached Dwellings Sales Volume by Quarter (Year Ended Volumes), September 2012
to March 2022, Noosa vs SEQ
1,200 50,000
45,000
1,000
40,000
35,000
800
Sales (Noosa)
30,000
Sales (SEQ)
600 25,000
20,000
400
15,000
10,000
200
5,000
0 0
Sep Q 2012
Sep Q 2013
Sep Q 2014
Sep Q 2015
Sep Q 2016
Sep Q 2017
Sep Q 2018
Sep Q 2019
Sep Q 2020
Sep Q 2021
Mar Q 2013
Mar Q 2014
Mar Q 2015
Mar Q 2016
Mar Q 2017
Mar Q 2018
Mar Q 2019
Mar Q 2020
Mar Q 2021
Noosa Total SEQ Total Mar Q 2022
Source: QGSO (2022).
Figure A. 10. Annual Detached Dwellings Sales Volume by Quarter (Year Ended Volumes), September 2012
to March 2022, Noosa vs SEQ
2,000 80,000
1,800 72,000
1,600 64,000
1,400 56,000
Sales (Noosa)
1,200 48,000
Sales (SEQ)
1,000 40,000
800 32,000
600 24,000
400 16,000
200 8,000
0 0
Sep Q 2012
Sep Q 2013
Sep Q 2014
Sep Q 2015
Sep Q 2016
Sep Q 2017
Sep Q 2018
Sep Q 2019
Sep Q 2020
Sep Q 2021
Mar Q 2013
Mar Q 2014
Mar Q 2015
Mar Q 2016
Mar Q 2017
Mar Q 2018
Mar Q 2019
Mar Q 2020
Mar Q 2021
Mar Q 2022
Noosa Total SEQ Total
Source: QGSO (2022).
30
Section 37
NOOSA SHORT STAY ACCOMMODATION ECONOMIC & SOCIAL ASSESSMENT
Figure A. 11. Annual New House and Land Sales Volume by Quarter (Year Ended Volumes), September
2012 to March 2022, Noosa vs SEQ
35 3,500
30 3,000
25 2,500
Sales (Noosa)
Sales (SEQ)
20 2,000
15 1,500
10 1,000
5 500
0 0
Sep Q 2012
Sep Q 2013
Sep Q 2014
Sep Q 2015
Sep Q 2016
Sep Q 2017
Sep Q 2018
Sep Q 2019
Sep Q 2020
Sep Q 2021
Mar Q 2013
Mar Q 2014
Mar Q 2015
Mar Q 2016
Mar Q 2017
Mar Q 2018
Mar Q 2019
Mar Q 2020
Mar Q 2021
Mar Q 2022
Noosa Total SEQ Total
Source: QGSO (2022).
Table A. 1. Annual Sales Volume, Year Ended Volume, by SA2
Dwelling Type/ Location Mar Q 2018 Mar Q 2019 Mar Q 2020 Mar Q 2021 Mar Q 2022
Attached Dwellings
Noosa Heads 338 263 260 303 277
Noosaville 301 254 241 282 329
Sunshine Beach 173 116 129 156 128
Tewantin 52 39 36 61 36
Peregian Beach - Marcus Beach 59 34 37 56 62
Noosa Hinterland 43 20 18 44 46
Noosa Total 966 726 721 902 878
Detached Dwellings
Noosa Heads 122 117 120 147 133
Noosaville 214 170 176 221 183
Sunshine Beach 158 147 157 195 164
Tewantin 269 199 198 269 251
Peregian Beach - Marcus Beach 92 79 78 99 77
Noosa Hinterland 615 521 496 690 652
Noosa Total 1,470 1,233 1,225 1,621 1,460
New House and Land
Noosa Heads 1 1 1 3 0
Noosaville 3 1 2 2 0
Sunshine Beach 0 0 0 2 2
Tewantin 4 0 3 3 1
Peregian Beach - Marcus Beach 1 0 0 0 0
Noosa Hinterland 6 7 7 7 4
Noosa Total 15 9 13 17 7
31
Section 38
NOOSA SHORT STAY ACCOMMODATION ECONOMIC & SOCIAL ASSESSMENT
Dwelling Type/ Location Mar Q 2018 Mar Q 2019 Mar Q 2020 Mar Q 2021 Mar Q 2022
All Dwellings
Noosa Heads 461 381 381 453 410
Noosaville 518 425 419 505 512
Sunshine Beach 331 263 286 353 294
Tewantin 325 238 237 333 288
Peregian Beach - Marcus Beach 152 113 115 155 139
Noosa Hinterland 664 548 521 741 702
Noosa Total 2,451 1,968 1,959 2,540 2,345
Source: QGSO (2022).
Dwelling Sales Value
Figure A. 12. Annual Attached Dwellings Sales Value by Quarter (Year Ended Values), September 2012 to
March 2022, Noosa vs SEQ
$1,000,000
$900,000
$800,000
$700,000
Median Sales Value
$600,000
$500,000
$400,000
$300,000
$200,000
$100,000
$0
Sep Q 2012
Sep Q 2013
Sep Q 2014
Sep Q 2015
Sep Q 2016
Sep Q 2017
Sep Q 2018
Sep Q 2019
Sep Q 2020
Sep Q 2021
Mar Q 2013
Mar Q 2014
Mar Q 2015
Mar Q 2016
Mar Q 2017
Mar Q 2018
Mar Q 2019
Mar Q 2020
Mar Q 2021
Mar Q 2022
Noosa Total SEQ Total
Source: QGSO (2022).
32
Section 39
NOOSA SHORT STAY ACCOMMODATION ECONOMIC & SOCIAL ASSESSMENT
Figure A. 13. Annual Detached Dwellings Sales Value by Quarter (Year Ended Values), September 2012 to
March 2022, Noosa vs SEQ
$1,400,000
$1,200,000
$1,000,000
Median Sales Value
$800,000
$600,000
$400,000
$200,000
$0
Sep Q 2012
Sep Q 2013
Sep Q 2014
Sep Q 2015
Sep Q 2016
Sep Q 2017
Sep Q 2018
Sep Q 2019
Sep Q 2020
Sep Q 2021
Mar Q 2013
Mar Q 2014
Mar Q 2015
Mar Q 2016
Mar Q 2017
Mar Q 2018
Mar Q 2019
Mar Q 2020
Mar Q 2021
Mar Q 2022
Noosa Total SEQ Total
Source: QGSO (2022).
Figure A. 14. Annual New House and Land Sales Value by Quarter (Year Ended Values), September 2012
to March 2022, Noosa vs SEQ
$1,400,000
$1,200,000
$1,000,000
Median Sales Value
$800,000
$600,000
$400,000
$200,000
$0
Sep Q 2012
Sep Q 2013
Sep Q 2014
Sep Q 2015
Sep Q 2016
Sep Q 2017
Sep Q 2018
Sep Q 2019
Sep Q 2020
Sep Q 2021
Mar Q 2013
Mar Q 2014
Mar Q 2015
Mar Q 2016
Mar Q 2017
Mar Q 2018
Mar Q 2019
Mar Q 2020
Mar Q 2021
Mar Q 2022
Noosa Total SEQ Total
Source: QGSO (2022).
33
Section 40
NOOSA SHORT STAY ACCOMMODATION ECONOMIC & SOCIAL ASSESSMENT
Table A. 2. Median Sales Value, Year Ended Values, by SA2
Dwelling Type/ Location Mar Q 2018 Mar Q 2019 Mar Q 2020 Mar Q 2021 Mar Q 2022
Attached Dwellings
Noosa Heads $670,000 $875,000 $902,500 $1,100,000 $1,325,000
Noosaville $430,000 $496,500 $535,000 $620,000 $815,000
Sunshine Beach $610,000 $605,000 $760,000 $900,000 $1,265,000
Tewantin $371,250 $410,000 $357,500 $459,000 $528,750
Peregian Beach - Marcus Beach $575,000 $538,000 $561,250 $642,000 $976,000
Noosa Hinterland $385,000 $370,000 $396,500 $452,500 $544,995
Noosa Total $540,000 $612,000 $665,000 $763,500 $940,000
Detached Dwellings
Noosa Heads $1,050,000 $1,130,000 $1,228,000 $1,410,000 $1,910,000
Noosaville $940,000 $930,000 $1,081,000 $1,325,000 $1,780,000
Sunshine Beach $925,000 $1,100,000 $1,212,500 $1,590,000 $2,170,000
Tewantin $565,000 $586,500 $580,000 $695,000 $920,000
Peregian Beach - Marcus Beach $840,000 $983,750 $938,750 $1,165,276 $1,890,000
Noosa Hinterland $625,000 $620,000 $639,750 $765,000 $1,050,000
Noosa Total $685,000 $730,000 $755,000 $905,000 $1,250,000
New House and Land
Noosa Heads - - - - -
Noosaville - - - - -
Sunshine Beach - - - - -
Tewantin - - - - -
Peregian Beach - Marcus Beach - - - - -
Noosa Hinterland - - - - -
Noosa Total $778,000 - $587,500 $877,500 -
All Dwellings
Noosa Heads $769,111 $951,010 $1,002,651 $1,193,311 $1,514,768
Noosaville $638,205 $668,732 $761,792 $926,069 $1,159,912
Sunshine Beach $760,363 $881,673 $1,008,400 $1,276,062 $1,761,224
Tewantin $527,046 $557,578 $538,861 $645,508 $867,899
Peregian Beach - Marcus Beach $731,612 $849,631 $817,293 $976,221 $1,482,317
Noosa Hinterland $603,810 $602,956 $622,750 $739,217 $1,010,926
Noosa Total $628,421 $683,131 $720,764 $854,567 $1,130,200
Source: QGSO (2022).
34
Section 41
NOOSA SHORT STAY ACCOMMODATION ECONOMIC & SOCIAL ASSESSMENT
RENTAL MARKET
Rental Bonds Lodged
Figure A. 15. Two-Bedroom Flat/ Unit Rental Bonds Volume by Quarter (Year Ended Volumes), September
2012 to September 2022, Noosa vs SEQ
700 52,500
600 45,000
500 37,500
Bonds Lodged (Noosa)
Bonds Lodged (SEQ)
400 30,000
300 22,500
200 15,000
100 7,500
0 0
Sep Q 2012
Sep Q 2013
Sep Q 2014
Sep Q 2015
Sep Q 2016
Sep Q 2017
Sep Q 2018
Sep Q 2019
Sep Q 2020
Sep Q 2021
Sep Q 2022
Mar Q 2013
Mar Q 2014
Mar Q 2015
Mar Q 2016
Mar Q 2017
Mar Q 2018
Mar Q 2019
Mar Q 2020
Mar Q 2021
Mar Q 2022
Noosa Total SEQ Total
Source: QGSO (2022).
Figure A. 16. Three-Bedroom House Rental Bonds Volume by Quarter (Year Ended Volumes), September
2012 to September 2022, Noosa vs SEQ
800 40,000
700 35,000
600 30,000
Bonds Lodged (Noosa)
Bonds Lodged (SEQ)
500 25,000
400 20,000
300 15,000
200 10,000
100 5,000
0 0
Sep Q 2012
Sep Q 2013
Sep Q 2014
Sep Q 2015
Sep Q 2016
Sep Q 2017
Sep Q 2018
Sep Q 2019
Sep Q 2020
Sep Q 2021
Sep Q 2022
Mar Q 2013
Mar Q 2014
Mar Q 2015
Mar Q 2016
Mar Q 2017
Mar Q 2018
Mar Q 2019
Mar Q 2020
Mar Q 2021
Mar Q 2022
Noosa Total SEQ Total
Source: QGSO (2022).
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Section 42
NOOSA SHORT STAY ACCOMMODATION ECONOMIC & SOCIAL ASSESSMENT
Median Weekly Rents
Figure A. 17. Two-Bedroom Flat/ Unit Median Weekly Rental by Quarter (Year Ended Values), September
2012 to September 2022, Noosa vs SEQ
$700
$600
Median Rental Price ($/Week)
$500
$400
$300
$200
$100
$0
Sep Q 2012
Sep Q 2013
Sep Q 2014
Sep Q 2015
Sep Q 2016
Sep Q 2017
Sep Q 2018
Sep Q 2019
Sep Q 2020
Sep Q 2021
Sep Q 2022
Mar Q 2013
Mar Q 2014
Mar Q 2015
Mar Q 2016
Mar Q 2017
Mar Q 2018
Mar Q 2019
Mar Q 2020
Mar Q 2021
Mar Q 2022
Noosa Total SEQ Total
Source: QGSO (2022).
Figure A. 18. Three-Bedroom House Median Weekly Rental by Quarter (Year Ended Values), September
2012 to September 2022, Noosa vs SEQ
$800
$700
$600
Median Rental Price ($/Week)
$500
$400
$300
$200
$100
$0
Sep Q 2012
Sep Q 2013
Sep Q 2014
Sep Q 2015
Sep Q 2016
Sep Q 2017
Sep Q 2018
Sep Q 2019
Sep Q 2020
Sep Q 2021
Sep Q 2022
Mar Q 2013
Mar Q 2014
Mar Q 2015
Mar Q 2016
Mar Q 2017
Mar Q 2018
Mar Q 2019
Mar Q 2020
Mar Q 2021
Mar Q 2022
Noosa Total SEQ Total
Source: QGSO (2022).
36
Section 43
NOOSA SHORT STAY ACCOMMODATION ECONOMIC & SOCIAL ASSESSMENT
APPENDIX B: INPUT-OUTPUT METHODOLOGY
INPUT-OUTPUT MODEL OVERVIEW
Input-Output analysis demonstrates inter-industry relationships in an economy, depicting how the output of one
industry is purchased by other industries, households, the government and external parties (i.e. exports), as well
as expenditure on other factors of production such as labour, capital and imports. Input-Output analysis shows the
direct and indirect (flow-on) effects of one sector on other sectors and the general economy. As such, Input-Output
modelling can be used to demonstrate the economic contribution of a sector on the overall economy and how much
the economy relies on this sector or to examine a change in final demand of any one sector and the resultant
change in activity of its supporting sectors.
The economic contribution can be traced through the economic system via:
• Initial stimulus (direct) impacts, which represent the economic activity of the industry directly experiencing
the stimulus.
• Flow-on impacts, which are disaggregated to:
o Production induced effects (type I flow-on), which comprise the effects from:
▪ Direct expenditure on goods and services by the industry experiencing the stimulus (direct suppliers
to the industry), known as the first round or direct requirements effects.
▪ The second and subsequent round effects of increased purchases by suppliers in response to
increased sales, known as the industry support effects.
o Household consumption effects (type II flow-on), which represent the consumption induced activity
from additional household expenditure on goods and services resulting from additional wages and salaries
being paid within the economic system.
These effects can be identified through the examination of four types of impacts:
• Output: Refers to the gross value of goods and services transacted, including the costs of goods and services
used in the development and provision of the final product. Output typically overstates the economic impacts
as it counts all goods and services used in one stage of production as an input to later stages of production,
hence counting their contribution more than once.
• Gross product: Refers to the value of output after deducting the cost of goods and services inputs in the
production process. Gross product (e.g., Gross Regional Product) defines a true net economic contribution
and is subsequently the preferred measure for assessing economic impacts.
• Income: Measures the level of wages and salaries paid to employees of the industry under consideration and
to other industries benefiting from the project.
• Employment: Refers to the part-time and full-time employment positions generated by the economic shock,
both directly and indirectly through flow-on activity, and is expressed in terms of full time equivalent (FTE)
positions.
Input-Output multipliers can be derived from open (Type I) Input-Output models or closed (Type II) models. Open
models show the direct effects of spending in a particular industry as well as the indirect or flow-on (industrial
support) effects of additional activities undertaken by industries increasing their activity in response to the direct
spending.
Closed models re-circulate the labour income earned as a result of the initial spending through other industry and
commodity groups to estimate consumption induced effects (or impacts from increased household consumption).
37
Section 44
NOOSA SHORT STAY ACCOMMODATION ECONOMIC & SOCIAL ASSESSMENT
MODEL DEVELOPMENT
Multipliers used in this assessment are derived from sub-regional transaction tables developed specifically for this
project. The process of developing a sub-regional transaction table involves developing regional estimates of gross
production and purchasing patterns based on a parent table, in this case, the 2018-19 Australian transaction table
(ABS, 2021a).
Estimates of gross production (by industry) in the study areas were developed based on the percent contribution
to employment (by place of work) of the study areas to the Australian economy (ABS, 2012; ABS, 2017a; ABS,
2021b; DoESE, 2021), and applied to Australian gross output identified in the 2018-19 Australian table.
Industry purchasing patterns within the study area were estimated using a Flegg Location Quotient approach, as
described in Flegg et al. (2021), with a fixed degree of convexity applied to the regional size scalar. Regional final
demand estimates (except exports) developed based on the regional inter-industry sales estimated using the Flegg
Location Quotient relative to national inter-industry sales and final demand estimates for each industry (noting
regional exports are assumed to reflect the remainder of total uses).
Employment estimates were rebased from 2018-19 (as used in the Australian national Input-Output transaction
tables) to current year values using the Wage Price Index (ABS, 2022a).
MODELLING ASSUMPTIONS
The key assumptions and limitations of Input-Output analysis include:
• Lack of supply-side constraints: The most significant limitation of economic impact analysis using Input-
Output multipliers is the implicit assumption that the economy has no supply-side constraints so the supply of
each good is perfectly elastic. That is, it is assumed that extra output can be produced in one area without
taking resources away from other activities, thus overstating economic impacts. The actual impact is likely to
be dependent on the extent to which the economy is operating at or near capacity.
• Fixed prices: Constraints on the availability of inputs, such as skilled labour, require prices to act as a rationing
device. In assessments using Input-Output multipliers, where factors of production are assumed to be limitless,
this rationing response is assumed not to occur. The system is in equilibrium at given prices, and prices are
assumed to be unaffected by policy and any crowding out effects are not captured. This is not the case in an
economic system subject to external influences.
• Fixed ratios for intermediate inputs and production (linear production function): Economic impact
analysis using Input-Output multipliers implicitly assumes that there is a fixed input structure in each industry
and fixed ratios for production. That is, the input function is generally assumed linear and homogenous of
degree one (which implies constant returns to scale and no substitution between inputs). As such, impact
analysis using Input-Output multipliers can be seen to describe average effects, not marginal effects. For
example, increased demand for a product is assumed to imply an equal increase in production for that product.
In reality, however, it may be more efficient to increase imports or divert some exports to local consumption
rather than increasing local production by the full amount. Further, it is assumed each commodity (or group of
commodities) is supplied by a single industry or sector of production. This implies there is only one method
used to produce each commodity and that each sector has only one primary output.
• No allowance for economies of scope: The total effect of carrying on several types of production is the sum
of the separate effects. This rules out external economies and diseconomies and is known simply as the
“additivity assumption”. This generally does not reflect real world operations.
• No allowance for purchasers’ marginal responses to change: Economic impact analysis using multipliers
assumes that households consume goods and services in exact proportions to their initial budget shares. For
example, the household budget share of some goods might increase as household income increases. This
equally applies to industrial consumption of intermediate inputs and factors of production.
• Absence of budget constraints: Assessments of economic impacts using multipliers that consider
consumption induced effects (type two multipliers) implicitly assume that household and government
consumption is not subject to budget constraints.
38
The text continues on section 45.