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Attachment 7- Economic Impact Statement
Noosa Village Mixed Use Development Economic Impact Statement for Development Application Prepared for Stockwell Development Group Pty Ltd 21 November 2023
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Deep End Services Deep End Services is an economic research and property consulting firm based in Melbourne. It provides a range of services to local and international retailers, property owners and developers including due diligence and market scoping studies, store benchmarking and network planning, site analysis and sales forecasting, market assessments for a variety of land uses, and highest and best use studies. Contact Deep End Services Pty Ltd Suite 304 9-11 Claremont Street South Yarra VIC 3141 T +61 3 8825 5888 F +61 3 9826 5331 deependservices.com.au Enquiries about this report should be directed to: Matthew Lee Principal [email protected] Disclaimer This report has been prepared by Deep End Services Pty Ltd solely for use by the party to whom it is addressed. Accordingly, any changes to this report will only be notified to that party. Deep End Services Pty Ltd, its employees and agents accept no responsibility or liability for any loss or damage which may arise from the use or reliance on this report or any information contained therein by any other party and gives no guarantees or warranties as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this report. This report contains forecasts of future events that are based on numerous sources of information as referenced in the text and supporting material. It is not always possible to verify that this information is accurate or complete. It should be noted that information inputs and the factors influencing the findings in this report may change hence Deep End Services Pty Ltd cannot accept responsibility for reliance upon such findings beyond six months from the date of this report. Beyond that date, a review of the findings contained in this report may be necessary. This report should be read in its entirety, as reference to part only may be misleading.
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Contents Executive summary i 1 Introduction 1 2 Location context 2 2.1 Regional context 2 2.2 Local context 4 2.3 Noosa Business Centre 6 2.4 Employment context 7 3 Planning context 10 3.1 Introduction 10 3.2 Shaping SEQ 10 3.3 Draft ShapingSEQ 2023 14 3.4 Noosa Plan 2020 14 3.5 Noosa Shire Retail Plan 19 3.6 Summary 20 4 Proposed Noosa Civic Village 21 4.1 Proposed use schedule 21 4.2 Development timing 24 4.3 Noosa Civic Stage 2 24 5 Retail need assessment 25 5.1 Introduction 25 5.2 Catchment analysis 26 5.3 Tourism 34 5.4 Retail provision 36 5.5 Retail need 39 5.6 Summary 45 6 Other proposed uses 46 6.1 Introduction 46 6.2 Cinema 46 6.3 Indoor recreation/gym 47 7 Trading effects 49 7.1 Introduction 49 7.2 Approach 50 7.3 Noosa Civic Village sales 51 7.4 Centre impacts 53 7.5 Summary 57 8 Economic outcomes 59 8.1 Introduction 59 8.2 Economic benefits 60 8.3 Economic disbenefits 63 8.4 Summary 63 Noosa Village Mixed Use Development – Economic Impact Statement for Development Application Deep End Services
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Tables + Figures Table 1—Development schedule 21 Table 2—Catchment demographics 2021 30 Table 3—Catchment population trends and projections (2011 to 2035) 31 Table 4—Average per capita retail spending (2023) 32 Table 5—Catchment retail spending by type, 2016 to 2035 33 Table 6—Noosa Shire Tourism trends 34 Table 7—Catchment retail provision 37 Table 8—Analysis of traditional retail floorspace provision and need 41 Table 9—Analysis of supermarket floorspace provision and needs 43 Table 10—Supermarket sales performance 2022 44 Table 11—VMU supermarket sales and market share 51 Table 12—Total Noosa Civic Village sales 52 Table 13—Stage 2 Retail sales forecast 53 Table 14—Catchment centres retail sales 2022 54 Table 15—Trading impacts: Noosa Civic Village 55 Table 16—Trading impacts: cumulative 56 Table 17—Construction employment generation 60 Table 18—Ongoing employment generation 61 Figure 1—Region context 3 Figure 2—Local context 5 Figure 3—NBC employment precinct 7 Figure 4—Net Employment flows 9 Figure 5—Northern Sub-region growth 11 Figure 6—Prosper Element 3 Strategies 11 Figure 7—Activity centre designations 12 Figure 8—Economic areas 12 Figure 9—Regional activity centre type 13 Figure 10—Noosa Business Centre Framework & Character Plan 18 Figure 11—Noosa Civic Village ground floor plan 23 Figure 12—Catchment definition 27 Figure 13—Visitation to Noosa Civic 28 Figure 14—Activity centres within catchment 38 Figure 15—Gym locations 48 Noosa Village Mixed Use Development – Economic Impact Statement for Development Application Deep End Services
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i
Executive Background
summary 1. This report has been prepared for Stockwell Development Group Pty Ltd (Stockwell)
to analyse the economic impacts arising from the construction and operation of the
Noosa Civic Village Mixed Use Development (‘Noosa Civic Village’) within the Village
Mixed Use (VMU) precinct of the Noosa Business Centre (NBC) in Noosaville, which
will operate as an expansion of the existing Noosa Civic Shopping Centre. The NBC
forms part of Noosa’s most significant employment district which extends into
neighbouring industrial and health precincts. This area contains a total of
approximately 4,600 jobs.
2. The analysis is being undertaken in the context of another application that has been
lodged for the Stage 2 Retail expansion of Noosa Civic within the Retail precinct of
NBC.
3. Noosa Civic Village will incorporate a range of uses that are consistent with the
intended outcomes for the VMU precinct. The development will operate under a cap
of 7,500 sqm of retail floorspace incorporating a supermarket of 3,500 sqm, and will
also include a cinema and associated recreation/entertainment, bars/restaurants, an
indoor recreation facility (gym), commercial offices, health care services, and 121
apartments in a mix of multiple dwellings and short term accommodation.
4. ShapingSEQ designates the NBC as a ‘Major Regional Activity Centre’ with planning
policy support for a wide range of retail, entertainment, business, civic and other
uses.
5. Noosa Plan 2020 provides strong policy support for the NBC to grow as a location
for employment and activity. The planning scheme identifies the NBC as one of two
major centres but also references the centre’s designation as a Major Regional
Activity Centre in ShapingSEQ and identifies it as having the predominant role as a
location for future long-term growth and employment in Noosa Shire.
6. The proposed uses to be developed within the VMU precinct respond appropriately
to Noosa Plan 2020, in which retail floorspace up to 7,500 sqm is consistent with the
scheme. The only inconsistency is that the proposed supermarket is marginally larger
than the 2,500 sqm identified as consistent within the VMU precinct under Noosa
Plan. All of the proposed non-retail uses are consistent with the planning scheme.
7. The proposed application for the Stage 2 Retail development is code assessable as it
enables retail expansion within the limit of 24,500 sqm set out in Noosa Plan 2020.
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Justification for proposal
8. Support for an expansion in retail provision in Noosa has previously been identified in
the Noosa Shire Retail Plan (2018) commissioned by Noosa Shire Council, as well as
in previous Environment Court judgements. For example, the Noosa Shire Retail Plan
provided support for an increase of up to 17,500 sqm of traditional retail at the NBC
by 2026 including a DDS, a new full-line supermarket and possibly another smaller
format supermarket, plus other specialty retail.
9. These conclusions with regard to the need for additional retail provision to serve the
needs of the local community and visitors are supported by economic analysis
presented in this report.
10. Retail provision at the NBC serves a wide catchment that extends across the Shire
and into the regional hinterland, with the extent of this catchment informed by
analysis of visitation to Noosa Civic using mobile geolocation data.
11. The catchment has continued to experience population growth even during the
COVID pandemic, and growth is forecast to continue mainly through infill
development and high-density housing close to activity centres, with the rate of
growth increasing once overseas immigration recommences.
12. Tourism makes a significant contribution to local activity, in terms of the numbers of
visitors and spending on retail and other goods and services, and is responsible for an
estimated 25% of total retail spending undertaken within the catchment.
13. When retail demand from catchment residents and visitors is analysed against the
current floorspace supply, the conclusion to be made is that only 56% of ‘traditional’
retail demand (ie excluding large format retailing) is retained within the catchment.
This is larger than would be expected if a full range and depth of retail services was
made available to reflect the role of the NBC and other centres within the catchment.
14. When applying a more appropriate retention rate of 70% to reflect the role of NBC as
a Major Regional Activity Centre (noting that this still allows for a sizeable share of
traditional retail demand to flow to Maroochydore as a higher-order centre) the
analysis shows that there is an undersupply of 21,200 sqm of traditional retail
floorspace available within the catchment. Moreover, the undersupply would widen
into the future without any increase in retail provision locally within the catchment,
reaching 33,050 sqm by 2027 when Noosa Civic Village would be operational.
15. The conclusion is that the retail hierarchy does not allow for levels of retail floorspace
provision that would be consistent with the intended strategic roles of centres within
Noosa Shire, and in particular the designation of the NBC as a Major Regional
Activity Centre. There is a need for additional floorspace to resolve the current
inadequate provision, as well as additional floorspace development into the future to
support ongoing growth.
16. The inclusion of 7,500 sqm of traditional retail floorspace to be developed at Noosa
Civic Village, plus the 6,500 sqm expansion as part of the Stage 2 Retail application,
is therefore supported by forecasts of future retail need prepared in this report, as
well as being consistent with supportable floorspace growth as identified in work
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prepared on behalf of Noosa Shire Council. Even with this development, there would
be potential for other retail expansions to occur elsewhere in the catchment.
17. The provision of supermarket floorspace is currently well below the typical average
provision rate experienced throughout Queensland, with an immediate opportunity
to increase current supply by nearly 10,000 sqm to reflect typical average provision
rates, and with further opportunities in the future to expand supermarket provision.
This supports the proposed additional 1,000 sqm of supermarket floorspace over and
above the acceptable outcome specified in Noosa Plan.
18. The undersupply of supermarket floorspace is evident from analysis showing that
existing supermarkets in the catchment are overtrading, with combined average
sales likely to be around 40% above typical industry averages.
19. Overall, there is a very strong need case for additional retail development at the
NBC, including for the proposed full-line supermarket as well as for other uses in
convenience retail, food dining and non-food retail sectors.
20. Analysis of the market context for the proposed cinema and for other components of
the development scheme such as an indoor recreation facility have also been
examined and are shown to be required to serve identifiable demand within their
respective catchments.
Competitive trading effects
21. The proposed Noosa Civic Village development would lead to some redistribution of
spending that would otherwise have been directed to other centres in the region.
These spending flows have been examined to determine their potential effect on the
role and operation of other centres within Noosa Shire. Potential cumulative effects
arising from the concurrent development of the Stage 2 Retail application have also
been assessed.
22. These effects are relevant only insofar as they lead to significant sales impacts such
that businesses close and/or the performance of competing centres leads to a loss of
services for the local community. In the absence of any significant diminution in the
role and performance of existing centres, competitive impacts are not a legitimate
basis for withholding planning approval.
23. The outcomes from the modelling of competitive effects presented in this report
demonstrates that no centres will experience a significant loss of sales such that
major anchor stores would close or that the role of the centre would be lost, either as
a result of the Noosa Civic Village development in isolation, or the cumulative effect
when combined with the Stage 2 Retail development.
24. A large share of the redistribution of spending would involve people shopping at
Noosa Civic Village rather than within the existing component of the Noosa Civic
shopping centre. For example, some shoppers might shift a part of their supermarket
spending to the new competitor at Noosa Civic Village. This effect is modelled at
equivalent to a one-off 8.6% reduction in sales in 2027, or an 11.5% impact when the
Stage 2 Retail expansion is included. Even so, this would be within a range that is
considered normal in a healthy retail environment.
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25. Other factors are also relevant:
a. In most cases the competitive effects would result in lower sales expectations for
centres that would otherwise be trading well above the typical average –
particularly those that contain a supermarket trading at above-average levels.
b. In some instances the impacts would simply involve the redistribution of sales
from one store to another within an operator group. This would happen, for
example, if Coles were secured as the supermarket operator at Noosa Civic
Village, in which case there may be some switching of shopping trips away from
the existing Coles supermarket at Noosa Junction. In such cases the existing
stores operated by each brand would continue to trade from the established
stores, even if the performance of these stores would be somewhat reduced.
c. Centres would be experiencing large increases in sales in the years leading up to
the development, so that once the impacts occur the resulting sales
performance is still well above current levels. Moreover, retail market growth
thereafter would erode the one-off impacts.
26. Overall, the conclusion to be drawn is that the proposed additional retail floorspace
will generate some competitive effect, but that this will occur within a larger market
at the time, and the effects would not lead to any diminution in the role or offer
available at competing centres.
Economic outcomes
27. The development will generate significant positive economic outcomes during
construction stages and the ongoing operation of new business activity. These
positive economic benefits can be summarised as follows:
a. An estimated 330 new direct jobs over an 18-month period, plus significant
indirect employment in the wider economy, during the construction phase.
Another 160 construction jobs would be directly generated by the Stage 2 Retail
project.
b. An estimated 500 new ongoing employment positions created within the NBC,
equivalent to nearly 380 full-time-equivalent (FTE) jobs, and with significant
indirect FTE jobs (estimated at around 660 or so) generated in the wider
economy. Another 140 positions (100 FTE jobs plus 125 indirect FTE jobs) would
be generated by the Stage 2 Retail development.
c. A wide range of consumer benefits including additional choice and convenience,
greater price competition, a wider retail offer, improved amenity for residents,
workers and visitors, new diverse and affordable housing opportunities, and
opportunities for local business development.
d. Community benefits generated by reduced travel and lower emissions as people
are not required to travel to access shopping opportunities.
e. Benefits for businesses (existing and new) with the provision of new offices
within an amenity-rich environment.
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f. Benefits to Noosa’s tourism and events economy from the provision of new
entertainment and visitor-oriented uses, supported by on-site short-term
accommodation.
g. Catalysing development within the NBC so that it is able to fulfil its role as a
vibrant business and employment centre, consistent with Noosa Plan’s policy
objectives.
28. Against these positive outcomes, the analysis presented in this report shows that the
competitive trading effect on other centres would not adversely affect the role and
performance of those centres, and other potential disbenefits would be minor.
29. The project would therefore deliver a significant net economic benefit to the
community.
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Introduction
This report has been prepared for Stockwell Development Group Pty Ltd (Stockwell) and
presents an independent Economic Impact Statement (EIS) to examine the economic
effects likely to arise from the proposed Noosa Civic Village Mixed Use Development
(‘Noosa Civic Village’).
The development involves the construction and development of land adjacent to the
existing Noosa Civic Shopping Centre for a mix of shops, cinema, other recreation and
entertainment uses, bars/restaurants, offices and apartments.
This report is organised as follows:
Chapter 2 describes the regional and local context relevant to the proposal, including the
role of Noosa Civic as a shopping and entertainment destination.
Chapter 3 summarises the relevant strategic retail planning context, as expressed in
ShapingSEQ and Noosa Plan 2020.
Chapter 4 describes the proposal including the proposed uses and likely tenancy mix.
Chapter 5 examines the need for the proposed additional retail floorspace having regard
to the catchment served by the centre, population trends and the role of Noosa Civic and
the wider NBC precinct in serving demand generated by tourists and other visitors.
Chapter 6 presents analysis of the proposed cinema and indoor recreation components.
Chapter 7 forecasts sales potential and trading effects on other centres
Chapter 8 analyses the economic outcomes likely to eventuate from the development,
including benefits such as job creation and consumer benefits, and the potential
disbenefits that may arise, for example associated with competitive trading impacts.
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Location context
2.1 Regional The development is within the ‘Village Mixed Use’ (VMU) precinct of the Noosa Business
context Centre (NBC) in the suburb of Noosaville, and is 7km west of the Hastings Street tourism
precinct at Noosa Heads, 30km north of Maroochydore and 130km north of Brisbane
CBD (refer Figure 1). The site is within the local government area of Noosa Shire.
Noosa Shire is a collection of suburbs and townships extending along the eastern
beaches and the Noosa River into the regional hinterland. The Shire encompasses
beaches, coastline, waterways, the Noosa Everglades, national parks, state forests and
bushland.
Urban development within Noosa Shire is concentrated in the coastal communities and
eastern beaches. The main residential areas are along the southern banks of the Noosa
River in the townships of Noosa Heads, Noosaville and Tewantin, and in coastal suburbs
at Sunshine Beach, Castaways Beach, Marcus Beach and Peregian Beach. The Shire also
incorporates small inland towns such as Cooroy, Pomona, and Cooroibah.
Regional access is provided between the coastal communities along David Low Way
which extends from Noosa Heads south to Sunshine Coast Airport. Walter Hay Drive and
Emu Mountain Road provide access from Noosaville southwards to Coolum, beyond
which the Sunshine Motorway extends to Maroochydore. Eumundi Noosa Road provides
access west to Eumundi where it joins the Bruce Highway, a major inland route
connecting Brisbane to Gympie and northern Queensland.
Noosa forms part of the wider Sunshine Coast region which extends southwards to
Caloundra and includes coastal areas within the Sunshine Coast Regional Council local
government area.
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Tourism is a key component of the local economy, with coastal towns attracting
significant visitation throughout the year. The region is also an appealing location for
retirement, leading to a high proportion of residents in older age cohorts.
Noosa Shire had a population of 57,330 persons in June 2022, with growth averaging 550
persons per year over the last ten years, incorporating the COVID-affected period.
In addition to tourism, strong economic growth is occurring in sectors such as healthcare
and social assistance. Diversification is also evident, with an emerging range of health-
related industries, manufacturing and other service industries, with NBC having an
important future role in supporting the diversification of Noosa’s economy.
Figure 1—Region context
Source: Deep End Services; QGIS; ABS; OpenStreetMap
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2.2 Local context The NBC is the most significant shopping centre and employment cluster within Noosa
Shire, and is located within Noosaville, which extends from the Noosa River foreshore to
Lake Weyba, and from Ross Island westward to Cranks Creek.
Noosaville is one of the largest suburbs in Noosa Shire, and along with a substantial
residential population it is a focus for regional economic activity including shopping,
business services, health facilities (anchored by Noosa Hospital), and other industrial and
commercial activities. The surrounding area provides approximately 4,600 jobs (as at
2021), most of which are centred in and around the NBC, substantiating its designation as
a Major Regional Activity Centre (refer Chapter 3).
Employment-generating land uses are generally located to the north and west of the
precinct given the extensive bushland to the east and south.
To the west is a significant industrial precinct containing a wide mix of businesses in
construction-related industries, manufacturing, storage and distribution, wholesale sales,
car and boat repair and sales, and other sectors. The industrial estate also includes
Belmondos Organic Market which is a collection of businesses incorporating a grocery,
butcher, deli, bakery and café.
North-west of Eumundi Noosa Road another industrial precinct contains a mix of
industrial and commercial uses as well as some large format retail (LFR) and showrooms.
Bunnings is located in this precinct at the corner of Gateway Drive and Eumundi Noosa
Road.
Other uses in the area include a retirement community (Noosa Domain Country Club)
located north of Eenie Creek Road and east of Walter Hay Drive; a car sales precinct
between Walter Hay Drive and Eumundi Noosa Road; and a health services precinct
extending along Goodchap Street towards the Noosa Hospital.
The closest nearby shopping centre is Noosaville, around 3km to the north-east of the
NBC, which contains various components including traditional convenience retail (at
Noosa Village and as shopfront tenancies), large format retail (such as Harvey Norman)
and visitor-oriented uses along Thomas Street near Gympie Terrace. Further afield, retail
centres at Noosa Junction and at Hastings Street are also important shopping
destinations for people living with the region and for tourists.
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Figure 2—Local context
Source: Deep End Services; NearMap; Google Maps; Noosa City Council; Stockwell; QGIS
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2.3 Noosa Existing development within the NBC consists of the Noosa Civic Shopping Centre, the
Business Centre Noosa Civic Showroom precinct, and the Noosa Civic Business precinct.
Together these elements contain a total of 30,000 sqm of net lettable area and provide a
sub-regional shopping and services facility serving a permanent residential population in
a catchment that consists of Noosa Shire and parts of the surrounding hinterland. The
centre also serves a tourist visitor customer base and people living beyond the catchment
who might work in the area or visit regularly. The NBC is well-located to serve this role
given the central position within the Noosa region and good transport connections.
Noosa Civic Shopping Centre
Noosa Civic Shopping Centre provides a traditional retail offer and is anchored by a Big
W discount department store of 6,484 sqm and a Woolworths supermarket of
3,590 sqm. Total shopping centre floorspace is approximately 18,000 sqm, of which
around 17,285 sqm is occupied by retail tenants.
Noosa Civic Showroom
The Noosa Civic showroom precinct is situated in the northern part of the centre
adjacent to Walter Hay Drive and Eenie Road and consists of 7,000 sqm of nettable
floorspace, of which 6,080 sqm is currently occupied by LFR tenants including BCF,
Beacon Lighting, and Adairs, and another 990 sqm is occupied by a veterinary clinic, an
F45 gym and a Pilates and yoga studio (FS8). There are no vacant tenancies.
Noosa Civic Business
A business precinct is located to the west of the core retail centre and contains a range of
mainly service-oriented uses including a Centrelink office, training and employment
placement services, community services and health-related activities. There are no retail
tenants within this precinct.
In addition to the components above, a pad site is occupied by an EG Ampol service
station.
Overall, the NBC is a successful existing centre that accommodates a range of uses that
provide services and jobs for the sub-regional community it serves. The centre represents
an important opportunity to continue to grow and widen its range of shopping,
entertainment, business services and residential housing, while generating additional jobs
and incomes for the Noosa region.
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2.4 Employment The NBC forms part of a wider employment area within Noosaville (termed the ‘NBC
context employment precinct’ for the purposes of this analysis) as shown in Figure 3, which
includes:
• Noosa Civic and the associated Showroom and Business precincts
• The nearby industrial land to the west of Hofmann Drive
• Land to the north of Eenie Creek Road/Eumundi Noosa Road which contains LFR,
showroom, industrial and enterprise uses
• The medical precinct that extends along Goodchap Street to Noosa Hospital
• Education uses including Good Shepherd Lutheran College on Eumundi Noosa
Road/Walter Hay Drive to the north, and Noosaville State School and St Teresa’s
Catholic College to the east on Sea Eagle Drive.
Figure 3—NBC employment precinct
Source: Deep End Services; NearMap; QGIS
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The NBC employment precinct (as defined in Figure 3) contains an estimated 4,620 jobs
(based on 2021 Census data) across a wide range of industries, with key economic
clusters in the following sectors:
• 1,110 jobs in manufacturing, construction services, wholesale trade and transport and
warehousing
• 1,010 jobs in shopping-centre based retail (ie excluding motor vehicle sales) and
incorporating cafés and restaurants
• 730 jobs in health care and social assistance (incorporating the medical precinct on
Goodchap Street including Noosa Hospital)
• 600 jobs in service sectors such as professional, scientific and technical services,
administration, finance and insurance, real estate services, public administration and
information media and telecommunications
• 400 jobs in education and training.
The NBC employment precinct accounts for 20% of the total number of jobs located
within Noosa Shire, and has relative concentrations in wholesaling (containing 55% of all
Noosa jobs in that sector), manufacturing (44%), transport and warehousing (36%), retail
(31%), personal services (29%), health (23%) and education (23%).
Across the Noosa LGA there were a total of 24,240 employed residents in 2021, with
above average representation (when compared to Queensland averages) in:
• Accommodation and food services
• Rental, hiring and real estate services
• Administrative and support services
• Arts and recreation
• Retail
• Professional, scientific and technical services.
In 2021 there were 22,920 jobs available within Noosa Shire, resulting in a net outflow of
1,320 jobs when compared against the number of employed residents. This represents a
relatively high employment self-sufficiency rate of 95%, meaning that in net terms the
number of local jobs is close to the number of jobs required by the resident population.
However, when examined on a sectoral basis it is apparent that Noosa Shire ‘imports’
people to work in tourism-related sectors such as retail, accommodation and food
services and arts and recreation, whereas people working in many other sectors are
required to travel to Maroochydore and other locations to seek work.
These net inflows and outflows are shown in Figure 4.
Development within the VMU precinct has potential to create new employment
opportunities for retailing, entertainment, and office-based sectors. Importantly, the new
jobs in professional, technical and administrative support would help to retain net
employment outflows in those sectors.
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Figure 4—Net
+1,000
Employment flows
Source: ABS Census
+678
2021 +648
+500
Employment net inflows (+ ve) and outflows (- ve)
+92
+19
+0
-11
-45 -62 -62
-110 -109 -133
-163 -151 -144
-192 -200 -201 -220
-278
-500
-679
-1,000
-1,323
-1,500
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Planning context
3.1 Introduction This chapter presents a summary of existing strategic planning policy as it relates to
development within the NBC, referencing provisions in the Queensland state
government’s planning framework (ShapingSEQ) and existing local policy contained in
Noosa Plan 2020, as well as recent economic analysis undertaken on behalf of Noosa
Shire Council.
More detailed examination of planning issues is provided in the town planning report
attached to the Development Application.
3.2 Shaping SEQ ShapingSEQ was prepared by the Queensland Government in collaboration with the 12
local governments that form all or part of the SEQ region, to guide the future
development of the region.
ShapingSEQ has statutory weight and presents the Queensland state government’s
planning framework to manage growth, change, land use and development in SEQ, and
informs preparation of planning schemes for local governments, including Noosa Shire.
The provisions in ShapingSEQ aim to respond to and accommodate projected growth,
while ensuring that development is sustainable and responds to the community’s needs
for housing, jobs and services.
The plan is based on an expectation that the population within the SEQ region will grow
by nearly 1.9 million over a 25-year period, requiring more than 30,000 new dwellings to
be accommodated each year. Noosa Shire’s contribution to growth is anticipated to be
around 6,400 new dwellings and 9,000 new residents over the planning period (refer
Figure 5). Most of this is to come within the existing urban footprint in the form of infill
development close to activity centres, including within the NBC.
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Figure 5—Northern
Sub-region growth
Source:
ShapingSEQ, p120
ShapingSEQ strategies relating to urban development and economic activity are mainly
provided under the theme ‘Prosper’.
Element 1 is to achieve a high-performing outward focussed economy and includes a
strategy to support continued growth in population-serving employment and traditional
economic industries.
Element 3 relates to the regional activity centres network, and includes the strategies set
out in the extract below at Figure 6. The strategies support designated ‘regional activity
centres’ as locations in which to encourage a wider range of economic uses by leveraging
their existing assets and infrastructure. Regional activity centres are also to incorporate
additional complementary activities including residential development.
There is direct reference to synergistic opportunities in knowledge and technology
precincts and major enterprise and industrial areas which is relevant to development
within the NBC.
Figure 6—Prosper
Element 3
Strategies
Source:
ShapingSEQ, p52
The strategies set out in Figure 6 above are intended to apply to the regional centres
network that is described in Table 7 of ShapingSEQ, as shown in the extract in Figure 7
below, in which Noosa is identified as a Major Regional Activity Centre.
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Figure 7—Activity
centre designations
Source:
ShapingSEQ, Table
7, p64
The designation of Noosa as a Major Regional Activity Centre refers to the NBC as shown
in Figure 8 below.
Figure 8—
Economic areas
Source:
ShapingSEQ, Map
3a, p57
Further direction on the anticipated role of Major Regional Activity Centres and the types
of development outcomes within such centres is presented in Table 8 of ShapingSEQ,
which is shown over the page (Figure 9).
Major Regional Activity Centres such as the NBC are expected to serve a sub-regional
catchment, for which they provide a wide range of administrative functions and act as
centres for business and related activities, cultural and entertainment facilities, and both
comparison and convenience shopping. They are also to accommodate an emerging
creative industry and knowledge-based business sector.
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Figure 9—Regional
activity centre type
Source:
ShapingSEQ, Table
8, p65
Under Part C of ShapingSEQ, further description is provided for the Northern Sub-region
in which the NBC is located.
This section highlights the features of the Noosa region that make it an attractive location
to live, work and visit, including its coastal beach towns and historic inland communities.
In this context, development is to be consolidated, where possible, making use of existing
economic infrastructure around major urban centres, with development to occur in
regional activity centres consistent with regional strategies.
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3.3 Draft On 3 August 2023 the state government released the draft ShapingSEQ 2023 Update for
ShapingSEQ 2023 consultation.
Policies relevant to the NBC are unchanged, with the centre continuing to be designated
as a Major Regional Centre and the same centre policies applied as in Figure 9 in the
previous section.
The Draft ShapingSEQ 2023 Update contains amended settlement and population
growth projections over the 25 years from 2021 to 2046, over which period Noosa Shire’s
population is projected to grow by +19,100 persons, with much of this expected to be
delivered through infill development within the existing urban footprint.
Baseline employment projections are for an additional 8,450 new jobs to be created over
the 25-year planning horizon.
3.4 Noosa Plan Noosa Plan 2020 provides the local planning policy framework for managing growth
2020 across Noosa Shire. The planning scheme was adopted by Council on 17 September
2020.
It is noted that the planning scheme was approved by the Minister subject to a condition
which required that Council commence a review of the provisions of the Noosa Plan to
provide more detailed planning guidance for the Noosa Business Centre in order to
reflect the centre’s designation as a major centre for Noosa and a Major Regional Activity
Centre in ShapingSEQ.
Relevant aspects of Noosa Plan 2020 in relation to the NBC are summarised below.
Strategic Framework
In Section 3.2.1 under the heading ‘Regional Context’, relevant extracts are as follows:
• Noosa serves “as a domestic and international tourism destination with particular
emphasis on nature-based recreation opportunities. Tourism and retail are
significant contributors to the local and regional economy and these provide a
strong platform of leverage for other parts of the economy”.
In Section 3.2.4 under the heading ‘Housing to meet diverse needs of the community’,
relevant extracts include:
• “While low density, predominantly detached housing, prevails in Noosa Shire, as
the population ages, there is likely to be increased demand for a range of housing
that suits single and couple households in locations with good public transport
and access to services and facilities”.
• “Future housing demand, particularly for smaller dwellings, is likely to be best
met through 'infill' development within existing residential areas, on well-located
underutilised land, and within town centres in a mixed-use format. Residential
growth in and around existing centres with ready access to goods and services,
attractive public spaces and community activities is encouraged”.
• “A range of measures are provided to encourage housing affordability including
requirements for small dwelling units close to centres”.
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In Section 3.2.6 under the heading ‘A diverse and resilient economy’, relevant extracts are
as follows:
• “Businesses are increasingly looking for flexible workspaces of different scales
and types which provide for multiple uses; coshared spaces with opportunities to
meet and share ideas; and provide well connected fast communication and
digital services. In order to meet these changing needs and enable the
diversification, business development and growth of priority sectors, suitably
located, zoned and serviced land is allocated. A mixture of approaches is applied
to ensure developments can be easily adapted to suit both the current and future
needs of business and industry. This includes providing for shared cooperative
spaces, digital hubs and mixed-use precincts that support small and growing
enterprises”.
• “The Noosa Shire activity centres hierarchy […] helps establish the respective
roles and functions of activity centres to ensure each centre contributes to a
network of vibrant activated centres with good accessibility and connectivity,
high amenity and a unique sense of place. This hierarchy represents all the retail-
based centres that occur (and will occur) in Noosa Shire”.
• “The centres hierarchy also takes into consideration Noosa Shire's role in a more
regional context. It recognises that a proportion of the Shire's higher order needs
is fulfilled by activity centres in other areas, particularly the principal regional
activity centre of Maroochydore and to a minor extent Gympie’s major regional
activity centre” (noting that Gympie is outside the ShapingSEQ boundary).
• “The Noosa Business Centre and Noosa Junction are the next level in the
hierarchy and are the major activity centres for Noosa Shire. Both have distinct
and complementary roles, with Noosa Business Centre having a predominant role
providing future long term growth and employment for the Shire”.
• “The Noosa Business Centre is designated in the South East Queensland Regional
Plan 2017 as the only major regional activity centre in Noosa. The major centre
offers the greatest opportunity to accommodate most of the long term growth
and development for key priority sectors including knowledge-based industries
such as education and training, health, digital economy, technology innovation,
and research and development. This will be delivered through a number of
planning precincts to reflect the desired function and role of the centre. Future
retail development is provided for in a village mixed use precinct designed around
a vibrant open main street linked to an open air village green space and
connecting with the existing shopping centre”.
Section 3.3.5 provides further direction on Economy and Employment and reiterates the
adopted activity centre hierarchy. With respect to Noosa Business Centre, the provisions
under 3.3.5(s) include:
• “Noosa Business Centre – is a key higher order centre in the Noosa Shire as it is
designated as a major centre in the South East Queensland Regional Plan. It
caters for the broader Noosaville, Tewantin and hinterland areas of the shire. Its
role and function are to provide for a mixed-use Shire-wide Business Centre, with
a focus on employment growth and economic diversification being a key
employment hub for Noosa now and into the future. Innovation and knowledge-
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based industries, health, research and education are present as well as higher
order sub-regional retail including a discount department store and full line
supermarket. There is a very limited increase in retail floor space, recognising the
role of the regional activity centre at Maroochydore in providing high order retail
needs”.
• “The Noosa Business Centre also includes a transit hub and offers a broad range
of commercial, community, cultural and entertainment services in addition to high
density housing, which is encouraged as an integrated component of
development within and near to the centre”.
Tables of Assessment
Table 5.5.5.6 is the table of assessment for the VMU precinct and provides that impact
assessment applies to all categories of development. Development of shops, service
industry, adult store, shopping centre and food and drink outlets within the VMU is
consistent with Noosa Plan where the gross floor area for does not exceed 7,500 sqm,
while all other proposed uses are also listed as consistent.
Zone Controls
Under the Major Centre Zone Code, the Purpose and overall outcomes include:
• Section 6.4.1.2(2)(a) – “The major centres of Noosa Business Centre and Noosa
Junction are the most significant centres for the Noosa Shire. These major
centres service subregional catchments with complementary, not competing
roles and functions thereby not compromising the viability of each centre”.
• Section 6.4.1.2(2)(b) – “Development complements the higher order services at the
principal regional activity centre at Maroochydore; which is the focal point for
employment and services on the Sunshine Coast, with provision of high-order
retail and hospitality functions and cultural and entertainment facilities catering
to local and more distant communities, including the Noosa community”.
• Section 6.4.1.2(2)(c) – “Major centres contain the highest order of community,
retail and commercial functions including entertainment and business activities,
as well as transport services in Noosa Shire”.
• Section 6.4.1.2(2)(d) – “Development does not compromise the hierarchy of centres
across the Noosa Shire, whether as a result of the impacts from individual
developments or the potential cumulative impacts of multiple developments”.
• Section 6.4.1.2(2)(f) – “Major centres provide a variety of retail uses including
shopping centres, full-line supermarkets, specialty retail shops, food and drink
outlets such as cafes and restaurants, personal services, local offices and a range
of entertainment activities. Noosa Business Centre contains a higher order of
retail than Noosa Junction with a shopping centre anchored by a single fullsize
discount department store and a full line supermarket. Complementary retail uses
include large format retail showrooms and a separate small format supermarket.
Noosa Junction complements the Noosa Business Centre with specialty retail
stores, supermarkets and a variety of entertainment uses such as restaurants,
bars, cafes and cinema, catering to the local community and visitors”.
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• Section 6.4.1.2(2)(g) – “Entertainment activities contribute to the economic activity
and vibrancy of the major centres both day and night”.
• The overall outcomes with respect to development within the VMU precinct include
at Section 6.4.1.2(4):
• “ (e) Development includes a mix of small format retail such as specialty
shops, cafes and restaurants with opportunities for small multiple dwellings
located above ground level”.
• “ (f) A small format supermarket, entertainment activities such as cinemas,
hotel, bars, as well as short-term accommodation opportunities and
community uses develop in the precinct”.
Criteria for Assessment
PO6 under the Major Centres Zone Code states that an additional small format
supermarket is established in the VMU precinct with a maximum gross floor area of 2,500
sqm.
PO72 applies to the VMU precinct and states that “the combined gross floor area of all
retail uses within the village mixed use precinct does not exceed 7,500m² and does
not include a discount department store or full-line supermarket”. The Acceptable
outcome (AO72) is that “a small format supermarket is included in the retail mix of
uses with a gross floor area that does not exceed 2,500m².”
PO84 states that “the first stage of development in the Noosa Business Centre Village
mixed use precinct, High density residential precinct or the Business park precinct
(where immediately adjoining either the Village mixed use of High density residential
precincts) includes: […] (g) the construction of a minimum of 3,000m² of commercial
office floor space, capable of use for commercial or professional offices, constructed
in an adjacent Business park precinct or precincts”.
Noosaville Local Plan
Section 7.2.4 is the Noosaville Local Plan Code which incorporates the Noosa Business
Centre Framework & Character Plan which is shown in Figure 10 below. The plan
establishes the precinct-based approach which has been adopted as the basis for the
Development Application, although with some minor modification of the boundaries
between the precincts to reflect the approved and newly constructed subdivision and lot
layout.
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Figure 10—Noosa Business Centre Framework & Character Plan
Source: Noosa Plan 2020 (Figure 7.2.4.5)
In summary, while the Noosa Plan 2020 supports the role of the NBC as a major centre
subservient only to Maroochydore in its intended higher-order function, it also imposes
several limitations on acceptable development outcomes, in particular with regard to the
additional retail floorspace to be developed within the VMU precinct, and the size of the
proposed supermarket.
The proposed uses and the overall scale of development that the current application
seeks to achieve within the VMU precinct is consistent with Noosa Plan.
The proposed inclusion of a supermarket of 3,500 sqm is not consistent with PO72 which
specifies an acceptable outcome of only 2,500 sqm. However, this represents a minor
increase of only 1,000 sqm over and above the amount of supermarket floorspace
anticipated in the Planning Scheme. The implications of this additional supermarket
floorspace are examined in Chapters 5 and 7 of this EIS.
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3.5 Noosa Shire The Noosa Shire Retail Plan was prepared by Location IQ in February 2018 on behalf of
Retail Plan Noosa Shire Council to provide an independent assessment of the recommended
appropriate provision of retail floorspace throughout Noosa Shire over the period until
2041.
The report was commissioned following refusal of a previous planned expansion at
Noosa Civic within what is now called the VMU precinct by a decision of the Planning &
Environment Court delivered on 16 December 2016. That proposal was for a retail
floorspace expansion of +22,230 sqm, which was found to be excessive (among other
reasons for refusal). It is noted that the Court favoured economic evidence that was led
on behalf of Noosa Shire, that a smaller development of up to around 15,000-16,000 sqm
of retail floorspace would be more appropriate.
The Location IQ report examines retail development opportunity within Noosa Shire and
includes the following components and analysis:
1. An overview of the region including the planning scheme applicable at the time
(Noosa Plan 2006).
2. A review of retail industry trends and structural changes underway.
3. Catchment area analysis, comprising:
a. Identification of a relevant geographic region served by retail facilities within
Noosa Shire, which was considered to generally comprise Noosa Shire and
extend south to Maroochy River ; and
b. Examination of population trends and expenditure patterns within the catchment,
and consideration of the size of the tourism component.
4. Description of the existing retail floorspace provision within the region and
examination of the extent to which people direct their purchases outside the region.
5. Analysis of future retail floorspace potential for both traditional (shopfront) retailing
and for large format (LFR) type development, as well as for other types of uses such
as cinemas and entertainment, based on supportable provision rate analysis.
This is an appropriate method by which to examine need for retail floorspace, and has
been adopted (with some modification) as the basis for the need assessment presented in
Chapter 5 of this report.
Using the above approach, the Noosa Shire Retail Plan provides support for the following
development outcomes:
• Within NBC:
• An increase of up to 17,500 sqm of traditional retail by 2026 including a DDS, a
new full-line supermarket and possibly another smaller format supermarket, plus
other specialty retail
• Up to another 5,000 sqm of traditional retail by 2036
• Up to 10,000 sqm of large format retail (LFR) in the short-term (by 2021) with
another 10,000 sqm in increments by 2041
• Up to 10,000 sqm of entertainment uses such as cinemas, and other facilities
including trampoline park, rock climbing, and kids soft play
• The report makes the point that while expansion at Noosa Civic was “refused
because it represented ‘more of the same’ which might impact on other
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convenience centres, the provision of an integrated cinema and dining
precinct would provide a point of difference which is currently not offered
within the Noosa Shire”.
• Elsewhere:
• Possible small format supermarket in Noosa Junction by 2031
• Additional entertainment and related uses at Noosa Junction
• Possible expansion of floorspace at existing supermarkets:
• Noosaville (noting that this is now occurring with refurbishments to the
Woolworths)
• Poinciana Place in Tewantin
• Cooroy
• Peregian Springs
• Additional LFR development (limited by land constraints) at Noosaville
• Small-scale additions elsewhere in smaller centres within the region.
The above outcomes refer to a preferred scenario which models retail floorspace
demand assuming that a larger share of retail demand is retained at centres within Noosa
Shire, reflecting its designated role as a Major Regional Activity Centre and with an
opportunity to widen the sub-regional retail offer.
3.6 Summary Shaping SEQ provides strong policy support for ongoing development within the NBC to
reflect its designated role as a Major Regional Activity Centre with a wide range of
business, innovation, retail, civic and entertainment uses as well as local diversified
housing.
Noosa Plan 2020 also provides strong support for the NBC to grow as a location for
employment and activity. The scheme references the centre’s designation in ShapingSEQ
and identifies it as having the predominant role providing future long-term growth and
employment in Noosa Shire.
Noosa Plan imposes limitations on development scale at the NBC, with assessment
provisions that limit floorspace within the VMU precinct for certain use categories to
7,500 sqm, incorporating a small format supermarket of up to 2,500 sqm. The proposed
scale of development on the site is within the overall floorspace limit but incorporates a
slightly larger supermarket of 3,500 sqm. This is the only inconsistency with Noosa Plan.
The proposed development would incorporate a total of 3,000 sqm of commercial
floorspace, consistent with PO84 which seeks to ensure that initial stages of
development within the NBC incorporate a significant commercial office floorspace
component.
In 2018 Noosa Shire commissioned an examination of retail development opportunity
throughout the Shire. This work endorsed additional development at the NBC to include
up to +17,500 sqm of new traditional (ie non-LFR) retail floorspace by 2026, including a
new full-line supermarket and possibly another smaller format supermarket, and
supported by an entertainment and dining precinct that would help to retain expenditure
otherwise flowing outside the region. The report also supported an expansion in LFR
development within showroom precincts.
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Proposed Noosa Civic Village
4.1 Proposed use The development scheme for Noosa Civic Village has been prepared by Buchan on
schedule behalf of Stockwell, providing for a mixed-use development in accordance with Noosa
Plan’s expectations for the VMU precinct. A schedule of uses is summarised in Table 1.
Table 1— Development precinct Use types Area (GFA)
Development VMU Shop, food & drink, office, health care service 7,500
schedule
Bar & dining Bar/restaurant/tavern 1,100
Source: Buchan Cinema (6 screens) Cinema 3,070
Recreation Indoor sport & recreation (eg gym) 2,700
Business Office, health care services 3,000
Arts and innovation Research & technology 445
Residential Multiple dwellings 45 apartments
Short-term accommodation 76 units
With respect to the retail component, the proposed 7,500 sqm for VMU uses would
include a mix of shops, food and drink outlets and shopping centre uses, as well as some
other activities such as offices or health care, consistent with the normal range of
tenancies found in similar centres.
For the purposes of economic analysis it is assumed that all of the 7,500 sqm would
accommodate retail uses to reflect the cap imposed in the Table of Assessment for the
VMU and the Major Centre Zone Code at PO72.
The retail tenancies include a supermarket of 3,500 sqm and a range of smaller tenancies
fronting the proposed Village Green and along Main Street.
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Figure 11—Noosa Civic Village ground floor plan
Source: Buchan
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4.2 Development According to information provided by Stockwell, construction of the proposed Noosa
timing Civic Village will occur over the period 2024 to 2026, with an 18-month construction
program.
The centre will open in around mid-2026, with 2026-27 therefore being the first full
financial year of trade.
4.3 Noosa Civic It is relevant for the purposes of later economic analysis that Stockwell has lodged a code
Stage 2 assessable development application for the Stage 2 expansion of the Noosa Civic
Shopping Centre within Lot 1 of the NBC Retail precinct.
The proposed development would add 6,500 sqm of retail floorspace for a range of
mainly larger tenants, and would include a multi-level car park (basement and decked) to
be constructed within the existing parking area immediately to the north of the existing
centre.
It is expected that the focus for the code assessable Stage 2 Retail development would be
on adding a range of leisure and other non-food destination retailers, supported by food
and drink outlets, that reflect the sub-regional role of the NBC and would widen its offer
to residents and visitors staying in the Noosa region, consistent with its sub-regional
shopping role.
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Retail need assessment
5.1 Introduction This chapter presents an examination of the need for the proposed additional 7,500 sqm
of retail floorspace that would be developed within the VMU precinct. As the proposed
scale of development is within the allowable floorspace limits set in Noosa Plan 2020, the
emphasis in this section is on examining the need for a supermarket of 3,500 sqm, which
is slightly larger than the 2,500 sqm acceptable outcome identified in the planning
scheme.
Also relevant for the purposes of this assessment is that a separate but related code
assessable application has been lodged for an additional 6,500 sqm to be developed on
Lot 1 within the Retail precinct. The additional retail floorspace added as a result of the
two applications would be 14,000 sqm, noting that this level of additional floorspace is
consistent with the provisions of Noosa Plan.
The practical effect of the subject application for the VMU and the separate application
for the Retail precinct would be to expand the existing Noosa Civic Shopping Centre as a
single integrated centre, providing an enlarged and more diverse shopping offer with the
addition of new retail and entertainment elements as well as offices and dwellings, and
likely to attract shoppers from a similar catchment to that served by the existing centre.
This is because most shoppers would simply view their visit to the NBC precinct as a
single trip in which they visit the various elements of the centre, rather than making trips
to one part or another.
The analysis of retail need adopts a standard catchment-based approach which analyses
retail demand generated by catchment residents and compares this against the existing
retail floorspace provision. An examination of the contribution from tourist visitors is also
included as this is an important component of the Noosa retail environment given the
large number of tourists visiting each year.
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5.2 Catchment Catchment definition
analysis
The catchment area adopted for the purposes of this analysis has been determined from
a range of factors including:
• The trading patterns of the existing Noosa Civic centre, drawing on analysis of mobile
geolocation data that identifies where visitors to the centre come from.
• The role of the integrated centre following completion of the Stage 2 Retail
development and the current application within the VMU precinct.
• The road network in the region and customer preparedness to travel.
• Natural and physical boundaries that may influence access to the centre.
• The size, composition and location of other retail facilities and activity centres that
act as alternative shopping destinations for residents and visitors to the region.
Based on this approach, the adopted catchment is illustrated in Figure 12 and consists of
a Primary sector and four Secondary sectors as follows:
• The Primary sector encompasses Noosaville and Tewantin surrounding Lake
Doonella and the Noosa River and extends south to include Doonan.
• The Secondary East sector incorporates the coastal suburbs of Noosa Heads,
Sunshine Beach, Sunrise Beach, and Castaways Beach.
• The Secondary South East sector is a narrow catchment sector along the coastline
extending from Marcus Beach through Peregian Beach and Peregian Springs to
Coolum in the south.
• The Secondary South West sector extends southwest along Eumundi-Noosa Road
and Eumundi Kenilworth Road to include Eumundi and Ridgewood.
• The Secondary North West sector extends north and northwest to incorporate the
small regional towns of Cooroy, Pomona and Cooran.
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Figure 12—Catchment definition
Source: Deep End Services; QGIS; MapBox
A key input in determining the catchment is the use of mobile geolocation data for
devices that have been recorded within the existing Noosa Civic Shopping Centre. This
data is represented in Figure 13 for the period 1 January 2018 to 31 December 2019 (to
reflect visitation patterns that are unaffected by COVID impacts on travel) and covers
approximately 42,000 visits made by around 16,000 devices.
The data has been purchased through the VISTA platform (now called ‘Pinnacle’)
operated by Near, and provides details of the geolocation of smartphone devices where
owners have location services turned on. The data is collected through applications that
Near owns or operates, during the process of placing banner ads for smartphone
applications that rely on advertising revenue, and through partnering with other
geolocation providers.
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Figure 13—Visitation to Noosa Civic
Source: VISTA mobile geolocation data (Near) – 1/1/2018-31/12/2019
The VISTA dataset shows that visitation levels (measured with respect to local population
numbers) correlate well with the defined catchment sectors (noting that some individual
areas are influenced by a low population base), with around two-thirds of all visits from
within the catchment (ie around a third in-coming from visitors and others living outside
the catchment), including 28% from within the Primary sector.
Although VISTA data provides a good source with which to analyse general patterns of
visitation to help determine catchment sectors, the direct use of the data as an indication
of proportion of sales may exaggerate visitation by shoppers outside the catchment who
may stay longer and therefore have more chance for their devices to be used with
location services on. This effect has been considered in subsequent analysis.
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Demographics
Table 2 presents a summary of socio-demographic characteristics of the catchment
population, drawing on the most recent release of data from Census 2021. Benchmark
data for the Sunshine Coast ‘Significant Urban Area’ (SUA) is also provided. The Sunshine
Coast SUA covers the more settled coastal parts of the Sunshine Coast Statistical Area 4
(SA4) geographic unit and is the most relevant when comparing the characteristics of the
catchment with the surrounding region. A comparison is also provided against data for
Queensland as a whole.
The key highlights are as follows:
• The catchment overall has a similar average household size to that of Sunshine Coast
SUA but smaller than the average for Queensland. Some of the more urban parts of
the catchment, such as the Primary and Secondary East sectors, contain even smaller
households on average.
• The proportion of unoccupied dwellings is significantly higher than that for
Queensland, reflecting the prevalence of holiday homeownership, some of which are
made available for short-term visitors. The Secondary East sector, in particular, is
popular for holiday home ownership. Note that dwellings occupied by visitor only
households are not included in this analysis, so that the actual influence of short-term
visitation is not shown in the data.
• Average age is higher across the catchment, with the Primary and Secondary East
sectors in particular characterised by the presence of older residents, along with the
Secondary North West sector which covers smaller inland towns.
• Average household incomes are similar to the Sunshine Coast average and slightly
lower than the state average, but with higher incomes evident in the Secondary East
sector which includes Noosa Heads and in the Secondary South West sector. The
Primary and Secondary North West sectors have lower average incomes.
• The breakdown by country of birth is similar to that for Sunshine Coast SUA, but with
larger proportions of people born in England.
• The catchment has a high degree of home ownership, reflecting the older age profile.
• There is greater emphasis on detached dwellings, although non-detached housing is
prevalent in the urban parts of the catchment and, apartments and other higher
density formats are being created through infill development within the Primary and
Secondary East sectors.
• Household composition favours couple families, similar to Sunshine Coast and state
averages. The larger share of couples without children compared to Queensland
reflects a greater proportion of retirees.
• The catchment generally has a high level of vehicle ownership, as is common in non-
metropolitan locations.
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30 Table 2—Catchment demographics 2021 Demographic characteristic Primary Secondary Secondary Secondary Secondary Total Sunshine Queensland East SouthEast SouthWest NorthWest catchment| Coast SUA Persons and household size Usual resident population 23,526 11,971 31,285 6,033 20,001 92,816 382,903 5,156,138 Private dwellings ® 11,640 7,322 13,929 2,312 8,714 43,917 169,780 2,190,425 Unoccupied private dwellings % 13% 28% 12% T% 10% 14% 10% 9% Average household size 2.32 2.33 2.54 2.79 2.52 2.46 2.47 2.54 Age group 0-9 8% 9% 12% 11% 10% 10% 11% 12% 10-19 11% 11% 14% 14% 12% 13% | 12% 13% 20-34 10% 12% 13% 12% 11% 12% 16% 20% 35-49 17% 19% 23% 21% 18% 20% | 19% 20% 50-64 22% 24% 20% 25% 25% 22% | 20% 18% 65+ 32% 25% 18% 18% 25% 24% | 22% 17% Average age 49.2 46.2 41.1 41.7 45.9 44.9 | 43.4 39.7 Annual household income <$33,800 20% 16% 14% 12% 18% 17% 17% 16% $33,800 - $78,200 34% 27% 29% 29% 36% 31% | 31% 29% $78,200 - $130,300 23% 23% 25% 25% 24% 24% | 24% 25% $130,300 - $182,400 11% 14% 16% 17% 12% 14% | 14% 14% >$182,400 13% 21% 16% 17% 11% 15% 14% 15% Average household income $96,849 $119,578 $110,348 $115,714 $93,390 $104,809| $103,139 $107,623 Variation from Sunshine Coast SUA -6% +16% +7% 412% -9% 42% : : Country of birth Australia 74% 71% 77% 80% 82% 77% 78% 76% England 9% 8% 7% 8% 7% 8% | 6% 4% New Zealand 5% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% | 4% 4% South Africa 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% | 1% 1% Other 10% 15% 10% 8% 6% 10% 10% 15% Occupied private dwelling tenure Fully owned 46% 44% 33% 40% 47% 41% 36% 30% Being purchased 31% 29% 36% 46% 39% 35% 36% 36% Rented 23% 27% 31% 14% 14% 24% 28% 34% Dwelling type ® Separate house 71% 58% 72% 98% 96% 75% 70% 74% Townhouse/semi-detached 18% 16% 18% 1% 1% 14% | 14% 12% Apartments to 3 storeys 11% 19% 7% 1% 2% 9% | 9% 8% Apartments 4+ storeys 0% 7% 3% 0% 0% 2% 7% 6% Household composition Couples with children 24% 24% 33% 36% 29% 29% 29% 30% Couples without children 37% 38% 31% 34% 37% 35% | 33% 29% One parent family 10% 9% 11% 12% 10% 10% | 11% 12% Lone person 26% 24% 22% 15% 21% 23% | 24% 25% Group 3% 5% 4% 3% 3% 4% 4% 4% Motor vehicles per dwelling None 5% 3% 2% 1% 2% 3% 4% 6% One 37% 38% 35% 20% 28% 34% 35% 36% Two 38% 43% 44% 42% 40% 42% | 40% 38% Three or more 20% 17% 18% 37% 29% 22% 21% 20% Source: ABS Census 2021 Notes: (1) includes visitor only dwellings and where occupancy not stated; (2) total private dwellings including visitor only Noosa Village Mixed Use Development — Economic Impact Statement for Development Application Deep End Services
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Population
The catchment had an estimated resident population of 95,331 in June 2022 which is the
latest official data available, having grown at a rate of 1.3% per annum over the three
years since 2019 (or adding 1,216 persons per year on average). Prior to 2019, the
catchment area experienced more rapid population growth, with a 2.3% increase per
annum between 2016 to 2019, or more than an additional 2,000 residents per year.
Within the catchment, growth has historically been focussed in the Secondary South East
sector where some broadhectare development opportunities remain around Peregian
Springs. In the Primary and Secondary East sectors, growth occurs as infill development
and is therefore more limited.
Population growth within South East Queensland was generally less affected by the
COVID-19 pandemic than other states, due mainly to interstate migration gains while
being less impacted by reductions in net overseas migration. Some population loss
occurred within the Primary and Secondary East sectors.
In the current recovery phase, a small ‘bounce-back’ is predicted in 2023-2025, after
which population trends are expected to revert to underlying growth trends which are
projected to be moderate when compared to figures prior to 2019. In June 2023 the
catchment population is estimated to be 96,875 and is forecast to increase to 102,470 in
2027, and then to continue to increase to 104,615 in 2030 and 107,510 in 2035. These
figures are based on dwelling approval trends and official projections released by the
Queensland Government Statistician’s Office (QGSO) in 2023.
Table 3—Catchment population trends and projections (2011 to 2035)
Catchment area sector 2016 2019 2022 2023 2027 2030 2035
Population
Primary 22,996 23,683 23,790 23,915 24,795 25,320 26,050
Secondary East 11,569 11,972 12,219 12,375 13,020 13,290 13,680
Secondary South East 26,888 30,547 32,375 33,075 35,295 35,875 36,625
Secondary South West 5,611 5,868 6,277 6,475 7,145 7,360 7,620
Secondary North West 18,566 19,594 20,650 21,035 22,215 22,770 23,535
Total 85,630 91,664 95,311 96,875 102,470 104,615 107,510
Population growth (No. per annum)
Primary - 229 36 125 220 175 146
Secondary East - 134 82 156 161 90 78
Secondary South East - 1,220 609 700 555 193 150
Secondary South West - 86 136 198 168 72 52
Secondary North West - 343 352 385 295 185 153
Total - 2,011 1,216 1,564 1,399 715 579
Population growth (% per annum)
Primary - 1.0% 0.2% 0.5% 0.9% 0.7% 0.6%
Secondary East - 1.1% 0.7% 1.3% 1.3% 0.7% 0.6%
Secondary South East - 4.3% 2.0% 2.2% 1.6% 0.5% 0.4%
Secondary South West - 1.5% 2.3% 3.2% 2.5% 1.0% 0.7%
Secondary North West - 1.8% 1.8% 1.9% 1.4% 0.8% 0.7%
Total - 2.3% 1.3% 1.6% 1.4% 0.7% 0.5%
Source: Deep End Services; ABS; Queensland Government Statistician’s Office (QSGO) population projections 2023 edition
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Retail spending
Estimates of retail spending propensity by catchment residents are shown in Table 4 for
2023, based on information from the MarketInfo spending propensity model prepared by
Market Data Systems, which combines information from various sources including the
ABS Household Expenditure Survey, ABS Census and National Accounts.
The spending estimates also draw on detailed ABS Retail Sales data and consumption
forecasts prepared by Deloitte Access Economics.
As shown in the table, catchment residents generate average retail spending of $18,999
per capita in 2023, which is 2.5% higher than the Queensland average. A much greater
variation from the average occurs in the Secondary East sector where average spending
is 13.2% higher than the state average overall and 24% higher on Food dining.
Table 4—Average per capita retail spending (2023)
Spending category Primary Secondary Secondary Secondary Secondary Total QLD Comp. to
East South East South West North West catchment QLD av.
Food, liquor & groceries (FLG) $7,731 $8,105 $7,487 $7,675 $7,642 $7,672 $7,406 +3.6%
Food dining $2,499 $3,171 $2,553 $2,440 $2,339 $2,564 $2,715 -5.6%
Non-food & services $3,680 $4,180 $3,660 $3,769 $3,572 $3,720 $3,622 +2.7%
Large format retail $4,823 $5,535 $5,060 $5,099 $4,960 $5,043 $4,801 +5.0%
Total $18,733 $20,991 $18,759 $18,983 $18,513 $18,999 $18,543 +2.5%
Comparison to QLD average
Total +1.0% +13.2% +1.2% +2.4% -0.2% +2.5%
Source: Deep End Services; ABS; Market Data Systems; Deloitte Access Economics
The information in Table 5 combines the spending propensity data, projected forwards
using broad consumption forecasts by Deloitte Access Economics and analysis by Deep
End Services, and population projections presented previously in Table 3, to calculate the
total spending capacity by catchment residents on retail goods and services over the
period 2016 to 2035.
The analysis shows that total retail spending by all catchment residents is predicted to
increase from $1.84bn in 2023 to $2.14bn in 2027, then reach $2.36bn in 2030. By 2035
total retail spending is projected to be $2.84bn. Note that these figures are presented in
nominal, or current price, dollars, meaning that they incorporate inflation effects.
These are clearly very significant increases in spending capacity, totalling an additional
$518m in annual spending between 2023 and 2030. The additional spending capacity will
support new retail developments while also underpinning improvements in retail
performance for existing businesses. Importantly, significant spending growth has
occurred in recent years during and emerging from COVID, at a time when retail
expansions have not occurred.
Retail spending within the Primary sector is forecast to increase from $448.0m in 2023 to
$511.1m in 2027 (ie +$63m), then increasing to reach $562.3m in 2030.
Of importance to the planned supermarket at Noosa Civic Village is the growth in
spending on Food, liquor & groceries (FLG), which is forecast to increase from $743.2m in
2023 to $850.5m over the four years to 2027 (+$107m) and then reach $922.4m in 2030
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(+$180m from 2023 levels). As noted above, significant spending growth in this sector has
also occurred in the period 2019 to 2023.
Overall, very substantial increases in available spending on the types of goods for which
supermarkets are the dominant retail format have occurred in recent years and are
expected in the future, providing strong justification for additional supportable
floorspace provision.
Table 5—Catchment retail spending by type, 2016 to 2035
Spending market ($m) Average change (%pa)
Spending category 2016 2019 2023 2027 2030 2035 2019-23 2023-27 2027-30 2030-35
Primary
Food, liquor & groceries 138.3 153.5 184.9 207.4 224.9 262.5 4.8% 2.9% 2.7% 3.1%
Food dining 40.5 42.6 59.8 69.6 75.2 85.5 8.8% 3.9% 2.6% 2.6%
Non-food & services 62.1 66.3 88.0 95.8 105.7 131.9 7.3% 2.1% 3.4% 4.5%
Large format retail 85.4 90.4 115.3 138.3 156.5 197.4 6.3% 4.6% 4.2% 4.7%
Total 326.3 352.8 448.0 511.1 562.3 677.3 6.2% 3.3% 3.2% 3.8%
Secondary East
Food, liquor & groceries 73.1 81.3 100.3 114.2 123.9 144.7 5.4% 3.3% 2.7% 3.2%
Food dining 25.8 27.2 39.2 46.4 50.1 57.0 9.6% 4.3% 2.6% 2.6%
Non-food & services 35.5 38.1 51.7 57.0 62.9 78.6 8.0% 2.5% 3.3% 4.6%
Large format retail 49.3 52.5 68.5 83.2 94.1 118.7 6.9% 5.0% 4.2% 4.8%
Total 183.6 199.1 259.8 300.9 331.0 399.0 6.9% 3.7% 3.2% 3.8%
Secondary South East
Food, liquor & groceries 156.7 191.7 247.6 285.9 308.7 357.5 6.6% 3.7% 2.6% 3.0%
Food dining 48.5 56.3 84.4 101.3 108.8 122.8 10.7% 4.7% 2.4% 2.5%
Non-food & services 71.9 84.8 121.1 135.3 148.7 184.5 9.3% 2.8% 3.2% 4.4%
Large format retail 104.7 122.2 167.4 206.4 232.4 290.7 8.2% 5.4% 4.0% 4.6%
Total 381.8 455.0 620.5 728.8 798.6 955.6 8.1% 4.1% 3.1% 3.7%
Secondary South West
Food, liquor & groceries 33.5 37.8 49.7 59.3 64.9 76.3 7.1% 4.5% 3.1% 3.3%
Food dining 9.7 10.3 15.8 19.6 21.3 24.4 11.2% 5.5% 2.9% 2.7%
Non-food & services 15.4 16.8 24.4 28.3 31.6 39.7 9.8% 3.8% 3.7% 4.7%
Large format retail 22.0 23.6 33.0 42.1 48.0 60.9 8.7% 6.3% 4.5% 4.9%
Total 80.6 88.5 122.9 149.3 165.9 201.3 8.6% 5.0% 3.6% 3.9%
Secondary North West
Food, liquor & groceries 110.3 125.5 160.8 183.7 200.0 234.4 6.4% 3.4% 2.9% 3.2%
Food dining 30.7 33.1 49.2 58.4 63.3 72.3 10.4% 4.4% 2.7% 2.7%
Non-food & services 48.5 53.2 75.1 83.5 92.6 116.0 9.0% 2.7% 3.5% 4.6%
Large format retail 70.9 76.8 104.3 127.4 144.7 183.3 7.9% 5.1% 4.3% 4.8%
Total 260.4 288.6 389.4 453.0 500.5 606.1 7.8% 3.9% 3.4% 3.9%
Total catchment
Food, liquor & groceries 511.9 589.8 743.2 850.5 922.4 1,075.3 6.0% 3.4% 2.7% 3.1%
Food dining 155.1 169.5 248.4 295.3 318.7 362.0 10.0% 4.4% 2.6% 2.6%
Non-food & services 233.4 259.2 360.3 399.9 441.5 550.8 8.6% 2.6% 3.4% 4.5%
Large format retail 332.2 365.6 488.5 597.4 675.8 851.1 7.5% 5.2% 4.2% 4.7%
Total 1,232.6 1,384.0 1,840.6 2,143.1 2,358.3 2,839.2 7.4% 3.9% 3.2% 3.8%
Source: Deep End Services; ABS; Market Data Systems; Deloitte Access Economics
Note: all spending data in current (nominal) prices
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5.3 Tourism Noosa is contained within the Sunshine Coast tourist region (TR) as defined by Tourism
Research Australia (TRA). Noosa and the wider Sunshine Coast region are major
destinations for domestic travellers and for international travellers to Australia.
Information on tourism visitation to Noosa Shire is presented in Table 6 based on data
provided by TRA drawing on the International Visitor Survey and National Visitor Survey.
Note that the data has been smoothed by presenting rolling averages across four years to
avoid fluctuations in estimates based on relatively small samples. Data after 2019 has not
been presented given the impacts from the COVID-19 pandemic; however, the most
recent information from TRA for January 2023 indicates that recovery in visitation is well
underway, with large increases in visitor trip numbers, nights stayed and spending in
Queensland when compared against January 2020.
Table 6—Noosa Shire Tourism trends
Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Visitors ('000s)
International 124 120 114 112 118 129 144 155 165
Domestic overnight 684 677 654 674 719 767 847 881 937
Domestic day trips 828 912 926 990 1,152 1,131 1,108 1,152 1,139
Total visitors 1,636 1,709 1,693 1,776 1,989 2,027 2,099 2,188 2,242
Visitor nights ('000s)
International 836 797 754 778 770 833 937 939 963
Domestic overnight 2,947 2,886 2,768 2,828 2,944 3,077 3,418 3,592 3,838
Total nights 3,783 3,683 3,522 3,606 3,714 3,910 4,355 4,531 4,800
Expenditure ($m)
International $72.2 $69.4 $65.9 $65.6 $62.9 $76.6 $84.3 $87.9 $101.0
Domestic overnight $538.4 $523.2 $486.3 $529.5 $565.1 $612.2 $672.6 $698.3 $786.3
Domestic day trips $67.5 $79.4 $84.2 $89.4 $113.8 $111.3 $104.5 $109.0 $97.3
Total spend $678.1 $672.0 $636.5 $684.6 $741.8 $800.1 $861.4 $895.2 $984.5
Retail spend component ($m)
International (@ 50%) $36.1 $34.7 $33.0 $32.8 $31.5 $38.3 $42.2 $43.9 $50.5
Domestic overnight (@45%) $242.3 $235.4 $218.9 $238.3 $254.3 $275.5 $302.7 $314.2 $353.8
Domestic day trips (@65%) $43.9 $51.6 $54.7 $58.1 $73.9 $72.4 $67.9 $70.9 $63.2
Total spend $322.3 $321.7 $306.6 $329.2 $359.7 $386.1 $412.7 $429.0 $467.5
Source: Tourism Research Australia (unpublished)
Notes: data presented as rolling averages over 4 years; day trips are visits lasting more than four hours and involving a round trip of
more than 50km from home
The data shows that a total of around 2.24m tourist visits were made to Noosa Shire in
2019, which represents the last year unaffected by COVID. This consisted of 165,000
international visitors, 940,000 overnight domestic visitors and 1.14m day trips. For
tourism data, a day trip is one lasting more than four hours and involving a round trip of
more than 50km from home.
Overnight visitors stayed a total of 4.8m visitor nights, while annual expenditure by all
types of visitors averaged $0.98bn in the four years to 2019.
All types of tourism were trending upwards prior to 2019, with annualised growth of
3% pa in visitor numbers, 2.5% in visitor nights, and 3.9% pa in total expenditure. With
recovery well underway post-COVID, these growth rates may be replicated or even
exceeded over the next few years.
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5.4 Retail Details of retail floorspace by centre across the catchment are presented in Table 7 over
provision the page, noting that this is based on floorspace surveys conducted in July 2022, with a
minor modification to include the 350 sqm IGA which opened at Sunrise Shopping
Centre in November 2022.
Total retail provision is estimated at approximately 154,255 sqm, of which around
114,895 sqm is in traditional retailing and another 39,360 sqm is LFR selling homewares,
furniture and other large format goods.
A large share of traditional retail floorspace is provided within the Primary catchment
where retailing is focussed at Noosa Civic (combined 16,460 sqm), Noosaville
(14,730 sqm) and smaller centres including in and around Tewantin. LFR provision is
mainly found within the showroom precinct at Noosa Civic and in the surrounding area
including within industrial and enterprise zones adjacent to Noosa Civic (combined
24,245 sqm) and at Noosaville (10,365 sqm).
Other significant collections of retailing occur within the Secondary North-east sector
including at Noosa Junction (combined 17,700 sqm of traditional retail) and Noosa Heads
(12,705 sqm), and with a total of 24,070 sqm of combined traditional retail at centres to
the south within the Secondary South-east sector.
Vacancy rates across the catchment centres are low, averaging just 3.5% across all
centres, and with a vacancy rate of just 1.5% at Noosa Civic. The only locations that have
high vacancy rates are smaller centres where an individual vacant tenancy can make a
large difference to the overall vacancy rate.
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37 Table 7—Catchment retail provision Activity centre Super- Otherfood Totalfood Non-food Total trad’l LFR Total retail Vacant Vacancy market &drink & services retail shops rate PRIMARY NBC & surrounds Noosa Civic — retail* 3,590 830 4,420 12,040 16,460 825 17,285 270 1.5% Noosa Civic - showroom 0 0 0 240 240 5,840 6,080, 0 0.0% NBC surrounds incl industrial 0 1,970 1,970 500 2,470 17,580 20,050 0 0.0% Total NBC & surrounds 3,590 2,800 6,390 12,780 19,170 24,245 43,415 270 0.6% Noosaville Noosa Village SC 3,700 425 4,125 1,190 5,315 0 5,315 130 2.4% Homemaker & strip 0 2,760 2,760 4,145 6,905 10,365 17,270 405 2.3% Gympie Terrace 0 2,460 2,460 50 2,510 0 2,510 130 4.9% Total Noosaville 3,700 5,645 9,345 5,385 14,730 10,365 25,095 665 2.6% Weyba Rd 1,300 790 2,090 0 2,090 150 2,240 200 8.2% Hilton Terrace 0 380 380 150 530 0 530 285 35.0% Tewantin TC 2,400 1,230 3,630 1,860 5,490 50 5,540 755 12.0% Noosa Outlook SC 520 515 1,035, 335 1,370 0 1,370 Oo 0.0% Noosa Bushlands 0 330 330 50 380 0 380 0 0.0% Total PTA 11,510 11,690 23,200 20,560 43,760 34,810 78,570 2,175 2.7% SECONDARY NORTH-EAST Noosa Junction Noosa Fair 3,765 350 4,115 1,120 5,235 0 5,235 0 0.0% Noosa Junction Plaza 2,155 860 3,015 1,260 4,275 0 4,275 0 0.0% Noosa Junction (balance) 0 4,890 4,890 3,300 8,190 895 9,085, 560 5.8% Total Noosa Junction 5,920 6,100 12,020 5,680 17,700 895 18,595 560 2.9% Noosa Heads Bay Village On Hastings 1,680 1,680 1,160 2,840 0 2,840 395 12.2% Hastings St 3,535 3,535 6,330 9,865 0 9,865 200 2.0% Total Noosa Heads 5,215 5,215 7,490 12,705 0 12,705 595 4.5% Quamby Place SC 350 715 1,065, 100 1,165 0 1,165 75 6.0% Sunshine Beach Shops 0 1,910 1,910 400 2,310 0 2,310 350 13.2% Sunrise SC* 350 240 590 200 790 0 790 490 38.3% Total Secondary NE 6,620 14,180 20,800 13,870 34,670 895 35,565 2,070 5.5% SECONDARY SOUTH-EAST Peregian Beach 1,200 1,790 2,990 2,900 5,890 1,220 7,110 140 1.9% Peregian Springs SC 3,155, 605 3,760 440 4,200 0 4,200 70 1.6% Coolum Village SC 2,550 550 3,100 550 3,650 80. 3,730 195 5.0% Coolum Beach strip 0 3,050 3,050 2,510 5,560 680 6,240 225 3.5% Coolum Park SC 2,830 220 3,050 280 3,330 0 3,330 80 2.3% Mt Coolum SC 785 420 1,205, 235 1,440 75 1,515 50 3.2% Total Secondary SE 10,520 6,635 17,155 6,915 24,070 2,055 26,125 760 2.8% SECONDARY SOUTH Eumundi TC 0 2,375 2,375 805 3,180 100 3,280 140 4.1% SECONDARY NORTH-WEST Pomona TC 1,360 1,550 2,910 680 3,590 500 4,090 340 7.7% Cooroy TC 1,700 1,830 3,530 2,095 5,625 1,000 6,625 180 2.6% Total Secondary NW 3,060 3,380 6,440 2,775 9,215 1,500 10,715 520 4.6% Total Catchment 31,710 38,260 69,970 44,925 114,895 39,360 154,255 5,665 3.5% Source: Deep End Services (based on surveys conducted July 2022); Stockwell; Property Council of Australia Notes: Noosa Village Mixed Use Development — Economic Impact Statement for Development Application includes click and collect in Noosa Civic business precinct; “includes new 350sqm IGA which opened November 2022 Deep End Services
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Figure 14—Activity centres within catchment
Source: Deep End Services
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5.5 Retail need The approach to examining retail need is to estimate the amount of additional retail
floorspace might be supported as a result of two factors:
1. Greater retention of retail demand captured locally within the catchment due to
improved local offer and wider array of entertainment facilities (rather than being
directed outside the catchment to centres such as Maroochydore); and
2. Growth opportunities as a result of additional demand as the residential catchment
population grows and from growth in visitation by tourists and other visitors.
This is a similar approach to that used in the Noosa Shire Retail Plan prepared on behalf
of Noosa Shire Council in 2018.
The analysis only looks at opportunities in the traditional retail sector and excludes
potential for increased provision of LFR retailing. This is to reflect the focus on the
proposed expansion of traditional forms of retail development at Noosa Civic Village and
in the code assessable application within the Retail precinct. Nevertheless, strong growth
in spending on LFR type merchandise (as per Table 5) will also support additional
development within the NBC Showroom precinct in the future.
A separate analysis of retail need for additional supermarket floorspace has also been
conducted as this is the only aspect of the proposed development that is not entirely
consistent with the provisions of the planning scheme.
The analysis presented in this report is based on a retail floorspace provision approach,
which applies an estimate of average per capita retail floorspace demand to the
catchment population. An alternative approach is to convert forecast retail spending
growth into ‘supportable floorspace’ by dividing by an estimate of average sales per sqm
for each retail category. However, this approach is highly dependent on setting
appropriate average sales performance for each retail category both now and into the
future. Sales performance varies markedly depending on whether retailers are in
shopping centres vs on-street tenancies, and there is little or no official data with which
to calibrate such figures. The result is that this approach is prone to error, especially
when forecasting over longer time periods.
Average retail provision per capital has historically increased over time, but in the analysis
presented below it has been held constant to reflect the increasing share of demand that
is ‘lost’ to online shopping.
The analysis is conducted with 2022 as a starting point to align with the date at which
retail floorspace surveys were conducted.
Traditional retail provision analysis
On average, traditional retail floorspace is provided at an average of approximately
1.6 sqm per capita. This is based on the recognised Australia-wide retail floorspace
provision rate of approximately 2.2 sqm per capita, with 0.6 sqm per capita deducted to
reflect the typical contribution of floorspace occupied by shops selling LFR goods. These
figures are consistent with the approach used in the Noosa Shire Retail Plan.
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40 Focussing on the figures for 2022, the average per capita provision rate can be applied to the catchment population in that year to show demand for 152,500 sqm of traditional retail floorspace. These figures are shown in Table 8 on p41 (refer row B). There is currently 114,150 sqm of traditional retail floorspace within the catchment (refer row C) as described in Table 7. An estimated 25% of this retail provision is supported by tourists and other visitors, which means that of the total current traditional retail supply, an estimated 85,600 sqm is directly support by catchment residents (row E). Comparing the underlying demand for 152,500 sqm of retail floorspace by catchment residents against the existing supply of 85,600 sqm that is supported by their demand, these figures imply that 66,900 sqm of the current demand for traditional retail floorspace by catchment residents ‘escapes’ outside the catchment (row F). This would be represented by shopping trips made to centres such as Maroochydore, for example, or even metropolitan Brisbane, to access particular goods and services or shopping experiences not available locally. The implication is that only around 56% of locally generated retail demand is retained within the catchment in 2022 (row G). This is a particularly low retention rate (that is, an unusually high level of demand escapes outside the catchment) and does not reflect the centre hierarchy present in Noosa Shire and the designation of the NBC as a Major Regional Activity Centre serving a sub-regional function with only Maroochydore providing higher-order shopping. The same conclusion was made in the Noosa Shire Retail Plan. Table 8 then examines the situation over the period 2022 to 2035 by applying the same methodology. Two outcomes are highlighted: 1. Due to population growth within the catchment, the demand for traditional retail floorspace by catchment residents will increase from 152,500 sqm in 2022 to 172,000 sqm in 2035 (row B). This represents an additional 19,500 sqm just to cater to the larger population base. Over just the period 2022 to 2027 the increased population generates an addition 11,500 sqm of new retail floorspace demand. 2. If no new floorspace is constructed (and holding the contribution from visitors constant) the proportion of retained demand for traditional retail floorspace by catchment residents would decline from 56% in 2022 to 50% in 2035. The lower part of Table 8 (rows H to K) examines existing and future need for traditional retail floorspace by adopting a retention rate of 70%. This is consistent with the Noosa Shire Retail Plan and reflects the role that retailing within the NBC should play given the designation in ShapingSEQ. It also implies an expansion in retail offer to fulfill this role, implicitly requiring the construction of new retail facilities, including at NBC as the highest order centre in Noosa, as well as elsewhere in the region. Note that a 70% retention rate still allows for $3 in every $10 of traditional (ie ex-LFR) shopping to be directed outside the catchment, which is a sizeable amount given the distances involved in such travel and the fact that the local centre hierarchy provides for all levels of centres other than regional shopping (which is provided at Maroochydore). Noosa Village Mixed Use Development – Economic Impact Statement for Development Application Deep End Services
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The analysis also incorporates retail floorspace demand from visitors travelling into the
catchment (ie from tourists, non-resident workers, etc). This contribution is assumed to
grow in line with trends in tourist numbers over the period 2010 to 2019, which is 2.5% pa.
The analysis establishes that there is a current undersupply of 21,200 sqm of traditional
retail floorspace in 2022 compared to a situation in which retention rates were 70% as
supported by the designation of NBC as a Major Regional Activity Centre in ShapingSEQ.
By 2027 (when Noosa Civic Village would be operational) the undersupply would widen
to 33,050 sqm and then increase over time to reach 45,850 sqm by 2035.
In summary, the analysis shown in Table 8 demonstrates that growth in the catchment
residential population and visitor numbers, combined with local services better reflecting
the role of NBC as a Major Regional Activity Centre, will generate significant demand for
new floorspace.
The analysis supports the conclusion that the current provision of retail floorspace
serving residents and visitors is inadequate given the intended strategic roles of centres
within Noosa Shire, and the designation of the NBC.
Overall, the analysis presented in Table 8 provides strong justification on need grounds
for the proposed 7,500 sqm of traditional retail floorspace at Noosa Civic Village by 2027,
along with the additional code assessable component of 6,500 sqm to be constructed
within the Retail precinct. The introduction of 14,000 sqm of additional retail floorspace
is, in fact, consistent with the existing controls set out in Noosa Plan 2020. Indeed, the
analysis identifies potential for further retail expansions to occur elsewhere in the
catchment in order to continue to serve the needs of residents and visitors.
Table 8—Analysis of traditional retail floorspace provision and need
Year Reference 2022 2027 2030 2035
Catchment area population - persons A 95,311 102,470 104,615 107,510
Demand for traditional retail floorspace
Average retail demand (@ 1.6 sqm/cap) - sqm B = A x 1.6 152,500 164,000 167,400 172,000
Existing traditional retail floorspace provision
Existing supply - sqm C (Table 7) 114,150 114,150 114,150 114,150
Floorspace supported by visitors - sqm D = C x 25% 85,600 85,600 85,600 85,600
Existing supply supported by catchment - sqm E=C-D 28,550 28,550 28,550 28,550
Retail floorspace not retained locally - sqm F=B-E 66,900 78,400 81,800 86,400
Retention rate - % G = (B - F) / B 56% 52% 51% 50%
Need analysis to reflect ShapingSEQ designation
Floorspace supported by catchment - sqm H = B x 70% 106,800 114,800 117,200 120,400
Floorspace demand by visitors - sqm I = 2.5% pa 28,550 32,400 34,900 39,600
Total supportable provision - sqm J=H+I 135,350 147,200 152,100 160,000
Floorspace provision balance (undersupply) - sqm K=J-C -21,200 -33,050 -37,950 -45,850
Source: Deep End Services
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Opportunities will also emerge for other new or expanded supermarkets to open
elsewhere within the catchment to serve the expected growth in local demand.
With respect to the current provision within the planning scheme for additional
supermarket development to be restricted to a smaller module of 2,500 sqm, the
following additional comments are made:
• The floorspace difference between a 2,500 sqm and a 3,500 sqm supermarket (ie
+1,000 sqm) is of marginal consequence given the current level of supermarket
provision within the catchment of approximately 31,000 sqm. Indeed, it represents an
increase of 3% in total supermarket provision, in a market that is growing at close to
3% each year (refer Table 5).
• The larger supermarket module of 3,500 sqm as proposed for the VMU precinct is
consistent with modern expectations by both operators and customers, and would be
of benefit to the community by providing a wider and deeper range of merchandise
across all departments (ie with in-store bakery, butchery, deli, etc).
• The Noosa Shire Retail Plan provided support not only for an additional full-line
supermarket at Noosa Civic, but also raised the possibility of incorporating a third
smaller format.
• The NBC presents an appropriate location at which to provide additional
supermarket services given its role as a sub-regional shopping centre in the hierarchy
and the relatively limited opportunity for other centres to expand their physical
footprint.
• The examination of future supermarket floorspace demand in Table 9 demonstrates
that there is a need for additional supermarket floorspace to serve residents in the
catchment, far exceeding the proposed additional floorspace to be built at Noosa
Civic Village.
Overall, this analysis does not support the intended restriction on additional supermarket
floorspace to 2,500 sqm, subject to examination of the potential trading effects on other
centres as set out in Chapter 7.
Table 9—Analysis of supermarket floorspace provision and needs
Year 2022 2027 2030 2035
Catchment area population - persons 95,311 102,470 104,615 107,510
Existing supermarket floorspace supply - sqm 30,950 31,710 31,710 31,710
Existing floorspace supported by catchment – sqm (@ 90%) 27,900 28,500 28,500 28,500
Floorspace provision rate per person (sqm/cap) 0.293 0.278 0.272 0.265
Floorspace demand at Queensland provision rate (0.394 sqm/cap) - sqm 37,500 40,300 41,200 42,300
Under(-)/over(+) supply - sqm -9,600 -11,800 -12,700 -13,800
Source: Deep End Services
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Although the provision rate approach has been adopted as an appropriate basis for
examining need, it is relevant to highlight the extent to which supermarkets within the
Noosa catchment are currently likely to be overtrading in terms of average sales per sqm
of floorspace, due to restricted supply.
The analysis is presented in Table 10 and can be described as follows:
• Catchment residents spent an estimated $615m on food and groceries in 2022. This
this is equivalent to the ‘FLG; market in Table 5, less spending on takeaway liquor.
• Of this, an estimated $430m, or 70%, is likely to be directed to supermarkets. This
figure varies in any location depending on the range of non-supermarket food shops,
the presence of markets as alternative shopping destinations, and other factors. It is
normally considered to average around 75% in most urban contexts.
• Supermarkets gain an additional 9% from the sale of other merchandise such as small
kitchenware items, stationery, some apparel (socks, etc), and in some supermarkets
from an in-store liquor section. Incorporating this, catchment spending at
supermarkets is estimated at around $473m in 2022.
• An estimated 10% of supermarket sales comes from people outside the catchment.
This can include from tourists, especially in places such as Noosaville and Noosa
Junction, but for supermarkets in the southern part of the defined catchment it would
also include people living just outside the catchment. When this is added, total
supermarket sales is estimated at around $525m in 2022.
• In 2022 there was a total of 30,950 sqm of supermarket floorspace located within the
catchment. This means that the average sales performance for catchment
supermarkets was close to $17,000 per sqm.
The broad analysis presented in Table 10 demonstrates that supermarkets in the Noosa
catchment currently achieve very strong levels of sales, well above the levels typically
seen as sustainable, which are around $10,000/sqm for smaller stores and in the order of
$12,000/sqm for larger full-line supermarkets. Of course, for any single operator the
turnover achieved through the store needs to cover rent, other occupancy costs, staffing
and other cost inputs to be profitable, and these differ in each case. However, on any
measure there is plenty of scope to add supermarket floorspace without causing the
sector any significant stress.
Table 10— Item 2022
Supermarket sales Catchment spending on food & groceries $615.3m
performance 2022
Catchment spending on food & groceries spent at supermarkets (@70%) $430.7m
Source: Deep End Plus sales of other merchandise (@9%) $42.6m
Services Total catchment supermarket spending $473.3m
In-coming spending by tourists & other visitors (@10%) $52.6m
Total sales at supermarkets within the catchment $525.9m
Supermarket floorspace 30,950 sqm
Average sales performance per sqm $16,993
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5.6 Summary The need analysis presented in this section can be summarised as follows:
• Retail provision within the NBC, dominated by the Noosa Civic Shopping Centre,
serves a relatively wide catchment that extends across Noosa Shire and into the
regional hinterland, with the extent of this catchment informed by analysis of
visitation to Noosa Civic using mobile geolocation data.
• The catchment has continued to experience population growth even during the
COVID pandemic, and growth is forecast to continue mainly through infill
development and high-density housing close to activity centres, albeit at levels lower
than the historical average prior to COVID.
• Tourism makes a significant contribution to local activity levels, in terms of the
numbers of visitors and their spending on retail and other goods and services.
• Demand for new traditional retail floorspace will come from greater retention of
demand from residents to reflect the intended strategic role of the NBC in the activity
centre hierarchy, as well as from increases in population and visitor numbers.
• The analysis in this report provides strong support for the proposed 7,500 sqm of
retail floorspace at the VMU precinct, along with the additional 6,500 sqm to be
added within the Retail precinct. Both developments are consistent with the
provisions of Noosa Plan. The total combined 14,000 sqm of traditional retail
floorspace represents only around 40% of the potential for additional traditional retail
floorspace across the catchment by 2027.
• This conclusion is supported by previous analysis undertaken on behalf of Noosa
Shire Council in 2018.
• The provision of supermarket floorspace within the catchment is currently well below
the typical average provision rate experienced throughout Queensland, with an
opportunity to increase current supply by nearly 10,000 sqm to reflect typical
average provision rates, and with further opportunities in the future to expand
supermarket provision.
• The undersupply of supermarket floorspace is demonstrated by very high average
trading performance for supermarkets across the catchment, at levels 40% or more
above the typical threshold for a sustainable supermarket sector.
• The proposed additional 1,000 sqm of supermarket floorspace over and above the
acceptable outcome set out in Noosa Plan is of marginal consequence when
compared with existing provision, is justified by an assessment of future need, was
supported by work undertaken for Noosa Shire Council in 2018, and would be of
sufficient size to better meet the needs and expectations of shoppers and the
operator. It would have little effect on overall trading levels across the supermarket
sector.
Overall, there is strong justification for the proposed Noosa Civic Village on need
grounds, including for a new full-line supermarket of 3,500 sqm rather than a smaller
format store of 2,500 sqm.
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Other proposed uses
6.1 Introduction This chapter presents a high-level review of the market context for other proposed
components of Noosa Civic Village including the proposed cinema and the indoor
recreation facility.
A broad-based analysis is sufficient because these uses are consistent with Noosa Plan
and therefore do not require justification on need grounds.
An examination of the proposed commercial office component (3,000 sqm) has not been
prepared as this is directly supported by Noosa Plan within the VMU precinct.
6.2 Cinema Historical information from the Motion Pictures Distributors Association of Australia
(MPDAA) indicates that average per capita cinema visitation fluctuated between around
3.5 and 4 visits per year over the ten years prior to COVID, and then reduced
considerably due to health concerns and movement restrictions imposed on the industry.
To forecast future attendances, an average visitation level of 3.5 visits per capita has
been applied, which assumes recovery from 2023 onwards.
With the residential population within the catchment at 96,875 persons in 2023,
increasing to 102,470 in 2027 and reaching 107,510 in 2035, total cinema attendance by
catchment residents is forecast to increase from 0.34m in 2023 to 0.38m by 2035.
Cinemas in locations such as Noosa derive a significant share of attendance from visitors,
with this contribution estimated for the purposes of this analysis at approximately 25%
given the large number of tourist visitors.
On this basis, the total attendance market for cinemas in the VMU catchment is
estimated at 0.45m attendances in 2023, increasing to 0.48m attendances in 2027 and
0.50m attendances in 2035.
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Average attendances per screen fluctuates by location and according to the standard of
each facility and its competitive positioning. However, a typical threshold rate for most
new cinema facilities is in the order of 40,000 attendances per year per screen.
On this basis, the estimated underlying attendance demand from catchment residents
and visitors, assuming an appropriate array of well-maintained cinemas, is in the order of
11.3 screens in 2023, increasing to 12 screens in 2027 and 12.5 screens in 2035.
The only existing cinema within the Noosa catchment is Event Noosa, located at Noosa
Junction, which is a BCC Cinema complex with 5 standard screens. There is a cinema at
Pomona (The Majesty Theatre) but this is a single screen which fills a niche role, showing
silent movies and other cult classics.
With demand for 12 cinema screens by 2027, and only 5 present in the catchment, there
is a strong need argument for the proposed 6-screen facility to be constructed within the
VMU precinct.
The proposal anticipates a modern cinema with a mix of standard theatres and premium
screens with higher levels of amenity (eg in-theatre food/drink service, better leg-room,
etc). In addition to the cinema, the application also makes allowance for an associated
entertainment facility that could comprise bowling arcade/escape room or similar venue.
It is emphasised that the proposed use is entirely consistent with the provisions of the
planning scheme and therefore not subject to need assessment.
6.3 Indoor The proposed VMU incorporates an indoor recreation facility that is likely to
recreation/gym accommodate a gym. Given the floorspace allowance, this would be expected to attract
a large, branded operator such as Anytime, Snap, Plus, Goodlife or similar chain.
Provision rates for gyms, on a per capita basis, have historically increased over time, but
have been stimulated even further following COVID due to increased emphasis on
personal health and fitness.
On a national basis gym provision is estimated to be around one gym per 4,000
residents, but the average is higher in affluent areas and in markets where gyms are able
to attract visitation from tourists – this occurs in particular for branded operators where
members can use other facilities within the group. In a market such as Noosa, an
appropriate average provision rate is around one gym per 3,500 residents.
Given the expectation that people can access gyms readily from close to their home or
work, an appropriate catchment on which to investigate gym provision is a combination
of the Primary and Secondary East sectors. However, it is noted that gyms within this
region are likely to attract additional visitation from workers living further afield but
willing to access a gym before or after work.
Currently there are ten identified gyms operating within these catchment sectors, as
shown in Figure 15, including one 24/7 facility located in Noosa Civic.
With a combined residential population of 36,290 persons within the Primary and
Secondary East sectors, a provision rate of 3,500 persons per gym would generate
demand for 11 gyms, increasing to 12 by 2027 when the population reaches 37,815
persons.
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With potential for incoming demand from other catchment sectors given the location
close to Noosa’s major employment cluster, this analysis demonstrates the community
need for one additional gym operator to located within the proposed Noosa Civic Village.
Figure 15—Gym locations
Source: Deep End Services
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Trading effects
7.1 Introduction This chapter examines the potential competitive trading effects that may arise from the
proposed Noosa Civic Village development once operational, as well as the cumulative
impacts that may occur when combined with the Stage 2 Retail application.
Trading effects occur as a result of the redistribution of spending from existing centres to
new retail developments once they open, and are relevant only insofar as they lead to
significant sales impacts such that businesses close and/or the performance of
competing centres leads to a loss of services for the local community. In the absence of
any significant diminution in the role and performance of existing centres, competitive
impacts are not usually a legitimate basis for withholding planning approval.
Trading effects are examined by comparing the sales achieved at competing centres in
2027 following construction of Noosa Civic Village against an estimate of sales
performance in 2022 (reflecting the date of floorspace surveys), and against the sales that
would otherwise have been achieved in 2027 in the absence of the proposed
development. Given potential sales uplifts since 2022, these impacts would be lower in
percentage terms if calculated using 2023 as a base year.
Effects are calculated in dollar terms and as a percentage impact, noting that the
significance of any loss in sales is also related to the underlying performance of each
centres. For example, centres that already achieve very high sales averages (ie can be
considered ‘over-trading’) are able to withstand a larger loss of sales without the risk of
business closure. This is shown to be the case in the supermarket sector (refer Table 10).
Typically, centre-level impacts up to a 10-15% loss of sales are considered to be within the
bounds of normal competition, while impacts greater than 15% warrant further attention
as to their effect on the performance of the centre in question, recognising – as stated
above – that high-trading centres can withstand larger impacts than those achieving
‘standard’ sales performance.
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7.2 Approach The approach used to analyse competitive trading effects can be summarised as follows:
1. Turnover achieved by the proposed Noosa Civic Village has been forecast for the first
full year of trading in 2027 based on:
a. A detailed market share assessment for the supermarket component
b. Typical industry averages
c. Sales evidence from the existing Noosa Civic Shopping Centre
d. Market share expectations for non-supermarket tenants
e. Contributions from visitors, especially due to the introduction of new elements
such as cinemas and entertainment venues
f. The competitive retail environment.
2. A similar exercise has been conducted to forecast sales at the Retail Stage 2
development in order to examine cumulative impacts.
3. The performance of existing centres has been estimated for 2022, and then projected
forwards to 2027 broadly in line with market growth over that period.
4. The extent to which the sales achieved at Noosa Civic Village (and the combined
sales including the Retail Stage 2 application) would be redistributed away from
individual competing centres is then modelled separately by broad retail category
before being aggregated at the centre level. A range of factors are used in
determining these effects, including competitive relevance, the role and relative
market shares achieved by each centre, proximity, and other factors likely to affect
the extent to which any shopping trips may be switched from one location to another.
Some of these specific factors that affect the competitive impacts on individual
centres include the following:
a. The new supermarket is assumed to be a full-line store operated by one of the
major national brands. Given normal shopping patterns, potential impacts would
be on the closest nearby alternatives (ie the Woolworths stores at Noosa Civic,
Noosaville and Tewantin and the Coles stores at Noosa Junction and Peregian
Springs). Often there is a degree of switching of shopping trips within a brand
group if the new store is more convenient – this may occur, for example, if Coles
were secured for the supermarket operator.
b. Impacts from other tenants would be concentrated mainly on other centres that
provide for a mix of convenience retail and non-food shopping, such as
Noosaville, Noosa Heads, and Noosa Junction, and to a much lesser degree
coastal centres further away.
c. Impacts from lifestyle type retailing of the kind likely to occupy the Retail Stage 2
development would be on the larger centres within the catchment that provide
depth in those categories, such as Noosa Civic, Noosa Heads, and to some
degree Noosa Junction and Coolum Beach. However, much of this impact would
be on larger centres outside the catchment such as at Maroochydore and even
metropolitan Brisbane, reflecting the need to travel outside the region to access
higher-order comparison shopping in non-food categories.
5. Impacts are then calculated as the decline in sales and a percentage of sales
otherwise achieved in 2027, and as the overall effect on sales compared to current
estimates for 2022.
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7.3 Noosa Civic Supermarket
Village sales
The new supermarket at Noosa Civic Village will be a full-line module of 3,500 sqm
which would be expected to achieve strong first year sales in order to attract an
established operator.
An estimate of future sales for the supermarket in 2027 (the anticipated first year of
trading) is shown below in Table 11, based on the likely share of the food & groceries
spending market captured by the new store from within each catchment sector. Note
that these market shares are applied to the ‘F&G’ market which excludes spending on
takeaway liquor. Liquor spending is incorporated into the ‘FLG’ market as shown earlier in
Table 5.
With allowances due to spending by tourists and other visitors not living within the
catchment (at 10%) and from sales of other merchandise such as small kitchenware items,
apparel, and stationery sold at supermarkets (at 7%, which is lower than the figure
adopted in Table 10 to examine supermarket sales across the catchment because the
store is not assumed to have in-store liquor sales), the proposed VMU supermarket is
forecast to achieve total sales of $42.8m in 2027.
This forecast is derived from estimated market shares which are expected to range from
9.5% within the immediate Primary sector, to just 2.0% from the Secondary South East
sector in which Noosa Civic would be a more distant and less convenient option and
where both Woolworths and Coles have stores (with the Coles at Peregian Springs
approved for an extension of 412 sqm). Relatively high market shares are expected from
the Secondary South West and Secondary North West sectors notwithstanding the travel
distance involved, but this reflects the lack of full-line supermarkets within those sectors
and the requirement to travel into urban Noosa for a significant component of their
shopping, as well as likely place of work and other travel patterns for residents living in
the hinterland.
As shown in the table, the largest component of sales would be drawn from the Primary
sector (44%), which reflects the preference to undertake supermarket shopping close to
home.
Table 11—VMU supermarket sales and market share
Catchment sector F&G spending ($m) Market share (%) Sales ($m) Share of sales (%)
Primary $182.9 9.5% $17.4 44%
Secondary East $98.7 5.0% $4.9 12%
Secondary South East $250.5 2.0% $5.0 13%
Secondary South West $51.9 5.5% $2.9 7%
Secondary North West $161.9 3.5% $5.7 14%
Total catchment $745.9 $35.8 90%
Sales from beyond $4.0 10%
Total F&G sales $39.8
Other sales (non-F&G) $3.0 7%
Total $42.8
Source: Deep End Services
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Noosa Civic Village total sales
The proposal makes allowance for 4,000 sqm of other shops to be located on either side
of the Village Green and along Main Street.
These tenancies are likely to accommodate retail shops and food and drink premises,
although the mix will evolve as the development is implemented and during its operation.
For the purposes of forecasting future sales performance, Table 12 provide an indicative
distribution of floorspace by type, and applies typical industry averages to estimate total
turnover. Note that the estimate is based on all of the 7,500 sqm within the ‘VMU
precinct’ component of the development being for retail shops, although it is likely that
some space may be taken by other non-retail occupants.
As shown in the table, the non-supermarket tenancies are forecast to generate total sales
of $31.8m during the first year of trade (2027). Total sales across the proposed Noosa
Civic Village is therefore forecast to be $74.6m when the supermarket component is
included.
Table 12—Total Noosa Civic Village sales
Use GFA (sqm) Average sales Total sales
Supermarket (refer Table 11) 3,500 $12,234 $42.8
Other retail
Fresh food 700 $9,500 $6.7
Food dining 820 $8,000 $6.6
Non-food 2,480 $7,500 $18.6
Sub-total non-supermarket 4,000 $7,953 $31.8
Total Noosa Civic Village 7,500 $9,951 $74.6
Source: Deep End Services
Noosa Stage 2 Retail
Total future turnover at the Noosa Stage 2 Retail development is relevant to examine
potential cumulative impacts associated with the two developments within the NBC.
An indicative sales forecast is presented in Table 13, which is based on an expectation
that the focus would be on non-food tenancies across leisure, apparel and homewares
categories. This expectation is consistent with the intention to widen the appeal of the
Noosa Civic facility overall by delivering a range of retail options not otherwise present,
thereby assisting in retaining spending that would otherwise be directed outside the
catchment.
Total sales at the Stage 2 Retail development is forecast to be $43.4m, with the resulting
combined turnover across both application sites therefore $118.0m in 2027.
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Table 13—Stage 2 Retail sales forecast
Use GFA (sqm) Average sales Total sales
Leisure 1,625 $8,000 $13.0
Apparel 1,625 $5,500 $8.9
Homewares 1,625 $5,500 $8.9
Other non-food 1,050 $7,500 $7.9
Food & drink 575 $8,000 $4.6
Total 6,500 $6,669 $43.4
Source: Deep End Services
It is important to appreciate that the $74.6m in sales at the proposed Noosa Civic Village,
or indeed the $118.0m in sales across the application sites, does not represent the net
addition to total sales within the NBC (ie incorporating Noosa Civic and the Showroom
precinct), as some redistribution of spending from the existing Noosa Civic to Noosa
Civic Village will occur. These changes in sales at the existing components of the NBC
are examined as trading impacts in section 7.4 below.
After 2027, sales growth will occur generally proportionately with growth in total
catchment spending as described in section 5.2 (refer Table 5), possibly with slightly
higher-than-average sales growth within Noosa Civic Village and the Stage 2 Retail
component given the typical maturation profile for new retail developments.
7.4 Centre Estimated turnover in 2022 for those centres located within the catchment is summarised
impacts in Table 14, based on a variety of inputs including:
• Information provided by Stockwell
• Industry reports including benchmark averages publications
• Industry knowledge obtained from individual clients
• Observations from field visits
• Consultant experience and judgement.
For the purposes of this analysis, adjustments have been made to reflect the opening of
the IGA at Sunrise Shopping Centre in November 2022, and to incorporate the additional
approved expansion of the Coles at Peregian Springs by +412 sqm (noting that this
approval has not yet been enacted upon).
In total, the identified centres within the catchment generated total estimated retail sales
of $1.3bn in 2022. The top 5 centres in terms of total sales are:
1. Noosaville (incorporating various components extending from Gibson Road to
Gympie Terrace)
2. Noosa Civic and other components within the NBC
3. Noosa Junction
4. Noosa Heads
5. NBC surrounds, which mainly comprises LFR traders within industrial precincts.
Overall, sales performance for the centres identified in Table 14 is estimated at $8,422 per
sqm, which is a very healthy average for the retail sector, and well above the typical
range of around $6,000-$7,500/sqm usually seen across internal and street-based
activity centres.
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Centres that are shown with very high average sales levels are those dominated by
supermarkets, which on average are thought to be trading close to $17,000/sqm as
indicated in Table 10 (refer p44) as a result of the local under-supply of supermarket
floorspace.
Table 14—Catchment centres retail sales 2022
Centre Floorspace (sqm) Average sales ($/sqm) Total sales ($m)
Noosa Civic SC & Showroom 23,365 $7,538 $176.1
NBC surrounds incl industrial 20,050 $6,135 $123.0
Noosaville 25,095 $7,562 $189.8
Noosa Junction 18,595 $9,309 $173.1
Noosa Heads 12,705 $11,026 $140.1
Webya Rd 2,240 $13,268 $29.7
Hilton Terrace 530 $6,000 $3.2
Tewantin TC 5,540 $9,664 $53.5
Noosa Outlook Shopping Centre 1,370 $8,909 $12.2
Noosa Bushlands 380 $8,974 $3.4
Quamby Place SC 1,165 $8,217 $9.6
Sunshine Beach Shops 2,310 $8,394 $19.4
Sunrise SC 790 $7,949 $6.3
Peregian Beach 7,110 $7,312 $52.0
Peregian Springs SC 4,610 $13,430 $61.9
Coolum Village SC 3,730 $13,220 $49.3
Coolum Beach strip 6,240 $6,207 $38.7
Coolum Park SC 3,330 $15,797 $52.6
Mt Coolum SC 1,515 $9,493 $14.4
Eumundi TC 3,280 $5,107 $16.8
Pomona TC 4,090 $7,516 $30.7
Cooroy TC 6,625 $7,181 $47.6
Total 154,665 $8,427 $1,303.4
Source: Deep End Services
The modelled impacts arising from the development of Noosa Civic Village in 2027 are
displayed in Table 15. Note that the information in the table has been simplified by only
including the main centres likely to experience any competitive impact following
development of Noosa Civic Village, or cumulatively when the Stage 2 Retail application
is included.
As noted in section 7.2, this analysis commences by forecasting sales at existing centres
in 2027 in the absence of new developments within the NBC: this is termed the ‘Base
case’. These forecasts have been calculated by assuming that centre sales grow in line
with changes in the market size, but with a discount applied to reflect likely increases in
escape spending as identified in section 5.5.
Sales forecasts with the inclusion of Noosa Civic Village in 2027 are then modelled by
incorporating reductions in sales at each centre as a result of the likely redistribution
effects once Noosa Civic Village is operational.
Impacts are identified in nominal terms as the difference between Base Case sales in
2027 and the sale that would result with the inclusion of the proposed development.
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These impacts are also expressed as percentages, both against the Base Case (2027) and
against current centre sales.
Impacts from Noosa Civic Village
The assessment of trading impacts with respect to the current application for Noosa
Civic Village is provided in Table 15.
The analysis shows that the centres experiencing the greatest potential reduction in sales
are expected to be those that either have an overlapping offer, are nearby and contain
supermarkets and other essential retail uses, or have an extensive food dining and
entertainment role.
Table 15—Trading impacts: Noosa Civic Village
Centre Sales 2022 Sales 2027 - Sales 2027 - Impact $ Impact % Impact %
Base Case with NCV in 2027 (cf 2027) (cf 2022)
Noosa Civic SC & Showroom $176.1 $202.1 $184.7 -$17.4 -8.6% +4.9%
Noosaville $189.8 $220.3 $208.3 -$12.0 -5.4% +9.7%
Noosa Junction $173.1 $196.3 $184.7 -$11.7 -5.9% +6.7%
Noosa Heads $140.1 $156.3 $151.5 -$4.8 -3.1% +8.2%
Weyba Rd $29.7 $34.0 $32.1 -$1.9 -5.7% +7.9%
Tewantin TC $53.5 $60.8 $57.0 -$3.7 -6.1% +6.5%
Other centres in catchment $541.0 $624.5 $612.9 -$11.5 -1.8% +13.3%
All centres in catchment $1,303.4 $1,494.2 $1,431.1 -$63.1 -4.2% +9.8%
Centres outside catchment -$11.6
Total redistributed sales -$74.6
Source: Deep End Services
Note: NCV – Noosa Civic Village
In dollar terms the largest impacts are expected to be on:
• The existing components of the Noosa Civic Shopping Centre, which will experience
a decline in sales at the existing Woolworths because of competition from a second
supermarket, and with impacts on some other stores in overlapping categories.
• Noosaville, which is a nearby centre with a strong recently refurbished supermarket,
essential retail and a dining offer.
• Noosa Junction, which has an existing Coles, a range of general retailers and some
entertainment-related businesses that would experience added competition.
• Noosa Heads, which would be affected mainly due to new dining opportunities and
partly because of new non-food shops in leisure and apparel categories.
• Tewantin, which would be affected mainly due to the additional supermarket offer.
• Weyba Road, where the modelling indicates a potential impact on the existing ALDI
(which is understood to trade well above average and is the only ALDI in the region).
Beyond these centres listed above, small changes in sales are likely to occur at a wide
range of centres across the catchment. In addition, centres outside the catchment are
expected to experience a loss of sales of $11.6m, representing a little more than 15% of
the total effect across the centre hierarchy.
The impacted centres outside the catchment would include regional shopping facilities in
Maroochydore to the south, or centres such as Gympie in the regional hinterland to the
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north. The redistribution of shopping from these centres to the NBC is consistent with the
expectation that a greater share of retail demand is retained within the catchment (refer
section 5.5).
In percentage terms the largest impact is on the existing components of Noosa Civic,
where the impact from the VMU component is forecast at an 8.6% decline in sales. A
very large share of this impact is associated with direct store-on-store competition
between the two supermarkets, although impacts will occur across categories depending
on the exact nature of new retail tenants. Little or no impact on the Showroom precinct is
expected.
Other than at Noosa Civic, the impacts on other nearby centres most affected by the
project are around -3% to -6% in percentage terms. This is well within the typical
variation in retail sales on an annual basis, and is not expected to lead to any major
change in retail tenants at these centres, particularly as these centres are generally
performing well with high average sales and low vacancies. Moreover, a large proportion
of the impact would be due to the introduction of the supermarket, and analysis in
section 5.5 shows that supermarkets across the catchment are generally over trading.
For other centres within the catchment not listed, the impacts average just 1.8% in
percentage terms.
Importantly, all of the modelled centres are expected to experience growth in sales
performance when compared against current estimated sales for 2022, with any
competitive effect outweighed by growth in the retail spending market in the intervening
period.
Cumulative impacts
Table 16 presents an examination of the cumulative trading impacts that would arise
following the combined development of the VMU and the proposed Stage 2 Retail
application.
Table 16—Trading impacts: cumulative
Centre Sales 2022 Sales 2027 - Sales 2027 - Impact $ Impact % Impact %
Base Case with NCV+NCR2 in 2027 (cf 2027) (cf 2022)
Noosa Civic SC & Showroom $176.1 $202.1 $178.8 -$23.2 -11.5% +1.5%
Noosaville $189.8 $220.3 $204.8 -$15.5 -7.0% +7.9%
Noosa Junction $173.1 $196.3 $180.3 -$16.0 -8.2% +4.2%
Noosa Heads $140.1 $156.3 $146.3 -$10.0 -6.4% +4.5%
Weyba Rd $29.7 $34.0 $32.1 -$1.9 -5.7% +7.9%
Tewantin TC $53.5 $60.8 $56.9 -$3.8 -6.3% +6.4%
Other centres in catchment $541.0 $624.5 $610.2 -$14.3 -2.3% +12.8%
All centres in catchment $1,303.4 $1,494.2 $1,409.5 -$84.7 -5.7% +8.1%
Centres outside catchment -$33.2
Total redistributed sales -$118.0
Source: Deep End Services
Notes: NCV – Noosa Civic Village; NCR2 – Noosa Stage 2 Retail
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The effect of the Stage 2 Retail application would be to increase cumulative impacts on
those centres that have stronger leisure, apparel and homewares sectors which are likely
to experience greater competition. These centres include:
• Noosa Civic itself which contains a discount department store and other specialty
tenants in these sectors, as well as some tenants in the Showroom precinct which
generate sales in homewares and leisure retailing;
• Noosa Heads which has an extensive range of non-food specialty stores;
• Noosaville, which also include stores selling homewares, apparel and leisure; and
• Noosa Junction, which contains some specialty stores in overlapping segments.
Although impacts are slightly higher in percentage terms when compared to those
shown in Table 15, the cumulative trading impact is still significantly lower than the
normal threshold of 10% loss of sales other than for Noosa Civic where, as mentioned
above, most of the effect is due to supermarket sales being diverted from the existing
Woolworths.
Overall, the cumulative trading effects are heavily influenced by the new supermarket, as
this component (with forecast sales of $42.8m) would generate 36% of all sales across
the VMU and the Stage 2 Retail development.
The total net effect across the NBC would be an increase in sales from $202m (Base Case
in the absence of Noosa Civic Village) to around $300m if the proposed development
proceeds – ie a net increase in sales of nearly $100m.
7.5 Summary With respect to competitive impacts the key planning issue is whether the decline in
sales would lead to any loss of centre role or performance such that the community
experiences a loss of local services.
Given the expected competitive effects on other centres in the region, the modelling
shown in this chapter demonstrates that no centres will experience a significant loss of
sales such that major anchor stores would close or that the role of the centre would be
lost. This is the case when considering the VMU development in isolation or the
cumulative effect when combined with the Stage 2 Retail application.
In most cases the impacts would simply result in slightly lower sales expectations for
stores that would otherwise be trading well above the typical average. For example, the
analysis presented in section 5.5 (refer Table 10) indicates that supermarkets in Noosa
significantly over-perform compared to industry benchmarks due to the relative
undersupply in supermarket floorspace. A decline in sales because of the introduction of
a new supermarket at Noosa Civic Village would not put these stores at risk.
In some cases the impacts would simply redistribute sales from one store to another
within an operator group. This would happen, for example, if a Coles supermarket were
to be secured, in which case there could be some switching of shopping trips away from
the existing Coles supermarket at Noosa Junction. In such instances the existing stores
operated by each brand would continue to trade from the established stores, even if the
performance of these stores would be somewhat reduced.
Moreover, the analysis shows that centres would be experiencing large increases in sales
in the next four years leading up to the development, so that once the impacts occur the
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58 resulting sales performance is still well above current levels. Further market growth would then also help to normalise sales performance over subsequent years. Overall, the conclusion to be drawn is that the proposed additional retail floorspace to be delivered within the NBC, all of which is consistent with the Noosa planning scheme, will generate some competitive effect, but that this will occur within a larger market at the time, and the effects would not lead to any diminution in the role or offer available at competing centres. The particular effect associated with the only aspect of the development not entirely consistent with the planning scheme – ie the additional 1,000 sqm of supermarket floorspace in excess of AO72 in Noosa Plan – would be of little or no consequence in terms of its effect on the centre hierarchy. The potential adverse consequences arising from added competition are therefore minimal when set against the significant positive effects that are expected to be generated as a result of the development, as discussed below in Chapter 8. Noosa Village Mixed Use Development – Economic Impact Statement for Development Application Deep End Services
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Economic outcomes
8.1 Introduction This section considers the resultant economic outcomes arising from the proposed
construction and operation of Noosa Civic Village, including consideration of the
following:
• Capital investment and resulting employment during the construction period
• Ongoing employment generation
• Consumer benefits such as additional shopping choice, improved convenience, price
competition, reduced commute to work, and improved variety and affordability of
residential accommodation.
• Other effects including positive externalities arising for example from reduced travel.
Economic disbenefits have also been considered, particularly in terms of any adverse
consequences from competition effects; although, as noted in Chapter 7, the
development is not expected to lead to any substantial trading impacts on existing
centres.
The analysis in this chapter isolates the economic outcomes arising from the
development application for the VMU precinct, as well as the additional economic effects
generated through the code assessable application within the Retail precinct.
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8.2 Economic Construction period effects
benefits
Significant employment will be generated during construction of the proposed Noosa
Civic Village, which is expected to commence in 2024 and be completed in 2026, over an
18-month timeframe.
Table 17 presents an estimate of the capital investment and construction-related
employment associated with construction of Noosa Civic Village, based on information
provided by Stockwell which indicates a total construction cost of $125m for Noosa Civic
Village and a further $60m associated with the Stage 2 Retail application.
Applying typical labour cost ratios, the indicative construction cost would require a total
labour input of 490 full-time equivalent jobs (FTE) during construction phases, of which
330 FTE jobs are associate with work undertaken on the VMU project. This represents a
total average of 380 jobs each year during the combined projects, or an average of 220
jobs per year for Noosa Civic Village.
Approximately another 900 indirect FTE jobs would be created in the wider economy as
the two projects are constructed, of which 600 indirect jobs would be generated a a
result of the VMU project. A share of these indirect jobs would be retained locally
through supply contracts, expenditures and wages, etc.
Table 17— Item Noosa Civic Village Stage 2 Retail Combined effects
Construction Estimated construction cost $125m $60m $185m
employment
Labour cost (@25%) $31m $15m $46m
generation
Average construction wage (FTE) $95,000
Source: Deep End Direct employment (FTE – total job years) 330 160 490
Services; Stockwell Indirect employment (FTE – job years) 600 300 900
Construction period 18 months 12 months
Direct employment (FTE – jobs per year) 220 160 380
Ongoing effects
Ongoing economic impacts from development of Noosa Civic Village would include the
creation of employment through additional economic activity, as well as other effects
that are less easy to measure, such as added choice and convenience for local shoppers,
improved housing diversity and affordability, and shorter commute times to access jobs.
Additional ongoing economic effects would be derived from the proposed Stage 2 Retail
development, including job creation and a widening of the retail offer leading to less need
for travel to more distant centres.
Employment
Estimates of employment generation associated with the proposed uses are presented in
Table 18, based on applying broad staffing benchmarks for each use, each of which is
based on employment to floorspace ratios or other measures drawn from experience
with facility developers.
The analysis shows that development of Noosa Civic Village would generate
approximately 500 employment positions within the site, equivalent to nearly 380 full-
time equivalent (FTE) jobs once the use of casual and part-time positions is considered.
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Another 660 or so jobs would be generated indirectly through production linkages and
consumption of wages income, much of which would be likely to involve local
employment generation within Noosa Shire.
Overall, around 1,045 FTE jobs would be generated as a result of the proposed
development on the VMU precinct.
The proposed Stage 2 Retail precinct would generate a further 140 positions, or around
100 jobs in FTE terms, with another 125 jobs created indirectly in the wider economy.
When combined, the two applications represent a potentially significant employment
uplift involving 640 new employed persons within the NBC, or nearly 480 jobs in FTE
terms. With another 785 jobs created indirectly, the total potential uplift could be 1,270
jobs, noting that a sizeable share of the indirect employment effect would be felt outside
the local region.
This level of job creation should be viewed in the context of its contribution to the
baseline workforce projections set out in the draft ShapingSEQ 2023 Update, which
anticipates total additional employment of +8,450 jobs over the next 25 years.
Table 18—Ongoing Use GFA (sqm) Positions Direct FTE Jobs Indirect FTE Jobs Total FTE jobs
employment Noosa Civic Village
generation
Supermarket 3,500 130 98 120 220
Retail specialties 4,000 125 90 110 200
Source: Deep End
Services; ABS Total retail 7,500 255 188 230 420
Bar/dining 1,100 45 30 55 85
Cinema 3,000 30 14 20 35
Recreation/entertainment 1,500 15 8 10 20
Gym 1,200 12 6 15 20
Business premises 3,070 125 113 265 380
Arts and innovation 445 15 14 35 50
Residential 5 4 10 15
Total Noosa Civic Village 17,815 500 377 660 1,045
Stage 2 Retail
Non-food retail 5,925 100 75 95 170
Food and drink 575 40 25 30 55
Total Stage 2 Retail 6,500 140 100 125 225
Combined effects 24,315 640 477 785 1,270
Consumer benefits
Delivery of the proposed Noosa Civic Village, along with the Stage 2 Retail application,
has potential to generate consumer benefits associated with the following factors:
• An improvement in the choice and availability of retail, entertainment and other
proposed uses on offer to the local residential base and visitors to the region. The
added choice would be across a range of sectors including supermarkets and grocery
shopping, the lifestyle retail expected to be delivered in the Stage 2 Retail
development, and in the entertainment and dining sector with the introduction of a
cinema centre and the inclusion of food and drink tenancies around a village green.
• Added convenience for people wishing to obtain goods that might otherwise only be
available with more distant trips to Maroochydore, or for those wishing to shop at the
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new full-line supermarket while on a shopping trip to the only sub-regional shopping
facility in Noosa.
• An opportunity for price competition generated by having a wider range of
competing outlets within the one centre, which would occur with the introduction of
an additional supermarket operator within a centre that currently only houses
Woolworths. The price competition effect is likely to be greater in a market such as
Noosa where the supply of supermarkets is relatively low, and current established
businesses are generally achieving much higher-than-average sales.
• Provision of a wider range of diversified housing in higher density formats, with
multiple dwellings suitable for a range of market segments including downsizers, key
workers, young professionals and entrants to the local housing market, and additional
short-term accommodation to support the tourism sector.
• Introduction of local employment opportunities at the proposed offices, leading to
consumer benefits for the local workforce as people are able to secure local
professional and scientific jobs rather than having to travel into Maroochydore or
even commute to Brisbane.
• Opportunities for local business development by providing a new modern office
offer including potential for flexible co-working spaces which are particularly
attractive for start-ups and other small businesses wishing to secure office tenancies.
• Improvements in local amenity for people living in, working in and visiting the wider
NBC precinct, due to new retail, entertainment, food dining and business services.
• A wider range of visitor-oriented services and amenity with the inclusion of cinema,
bars/restaurants, recreation and entertainment which will create a focus for night-
time activities, thereby helping to cater to Noosa’s tourism and events economy, with
this component supported by short-term accommodation.
Other
Other identifiable benefits resulting from the proposed development include:
• Less need for shopping trips to more distant shopping facilities, including those
located beyond the catchment (such as Maroochydore), leading to positive
externality benefits arising from a reduction in travel and an associated reduction in
vehicle emissions.
• Similar externality benefits such as vehicle emission reductions would be created
through the provision of a wider array of local employment opportunities across a
wide range of professional and scientific industry sectors.
• A widening of the retail offer for both residents and tourists, with the inclusion of a
new shopping facility that may help to stimulate an increase in retail shopping by
tourist visitors.
• The introduction of a range of uses that are in accordance with the policy aspirations
for the NBC, including the co-location of office and residential uses (including short-
term accommodation) that will help to generate a day time and night time population
to support the proposed entertainment, shopping and dining uses.
In summary, the proposed uses to be developed within the NBC would generate a range
of important measurable and non-measurable positive outcomes for Noosa Shire and for
the wider region.
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8.3 Economic Economic disbenefits would be a relevant factor if the proposed development would lead
disbenefits to significant trading effects such that the proposed development would need to ‘make
good’ these competitive impacts. However, as shown by the analysis presented in section
5.5 and in Chapter 7, the proposed development responds to an existing and growing
need for additional retail floorspace, is therefore supportable in market terms, and would
not lead to any significant adverse impacts on other existing centres.
Importantly, measurable effects on staffing levels are generally only felt when businesses
experience more significant shocks to sale performance of at least 10% or more. In the
case of major national brand supermarkets, staffing levels tend to be associated with the
size and range of departments on offer, and would not be affected unless very significant
declines in customer patronage take place.
Economic disbenefits may be generated if the development were to lead to other adverse
impacts, such as increased road congestion that may affect acceptable performance on
the surrounding road network. However, the traffic analysis undertaken for the proposed
development by SLR Consulting demonstrates that traffic performance on surrounding
streets and proposed access roads would be within acceptable performance thresholds
following the development.
Overall, any minor disbenefits are significantly outweighed by the positive economic
outcomes presented in section 8.3.
8.4 Summary In summary, the economic outcome arising from the proposed development of Noosa
Civic Village in isolation, and combined with the Stage 2 Retail application, would be
strongly positive, consisting of:
• Additional retail offer to serve people living within the region and visitors.
• Significant economic activity during construction, including 490 direct jobs created
across the two projects.
• An estimated 620 new ongoing employment positions within the NBC (480 within
the VMU precinct), or 470 FTE jobs, and with another 760 or so jobs created
indirectly in the wider economy.
• Consumer benefits including additional choice and convenience, greater price
competition, a wider retail offer, improved amenity for residents, workers and
visitors, new diverse and affordable housing, and business development.
• Community benefits generated by reduced travel and lower emissions as people are
not required to travel to access shopping opportunities.
• Business benefits from the provision of new offices within an amenity-rich
environment.
• Tourism benefits with the provision of new entertainment and dining options catering
to Noosa’s visitor and events economy, plus new short-term accommodation.
• Catalysing development within the NBC so that it is able to fulfil its role as a vibrant
business and employment centre, consistent with Noosa Plan’s policy objectives.
Against these positive outcomes, the modelling presented in Chapter 7 shows that the
competitive trading effect on other centres would not adversely affect the role and
performance of those centres. The project would therefore deliver a significant net
economic and community benefit to Noosa Shire and the region.
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