Attachment 7- Economic Impact Statement

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5.5 Retail need   The approach to examining retail need is to estimate the amount of additional retail
                  floorspace might be supported as a result of two factors:
                  1. Greater retention of retail demand captured locally within the catchment due to
                     improved local offer and wider array of entertainment facilities (rather than being
                     directed outside the catchment to centres such as Maroochydore); and
                  2. Growth opportunities as a result of additional demand as the residential catchment
                     population grows and from growth in visitation by tourists and other visitors.

                  This is a similar approach to that used in the Noosa Shire Retail Plan prepared on behalf
                  of Noosa Shire Council in 2018.

                  The analysis only looks at opportunities in the traditional retail sector and excludes
                  potential for increased provision of LFR retailing. This is to reflect the focus on the
                  proposed expansion of traditional forms of retail development at Noosa Civic Village and
                  in the code assessable application within the Retail precinct. Nevertheless, strong growth
                  in spending on LFR type merchandise (as per Table 5) will also support additional
                  development within the NBC Showroom precinct in the future.
                  A separate analysis of retail need for additional supermarket floorspace has also been
                  conducted as this is the only aspect of the proposed development that is not entirely
                  consistent with the provisions of the planning scheme.
                  The analysis presented in this report is based on a retail floorspace provision approach,
                  which applies an estimate of average per capita retail floorspace demand to the
                  catchment population. An alternative approach is to convert forecast retail spending
                  growth into ‘supportable floorspace’ by dividing by an estimate of average sales per sqm
                  for each retail category. However, this approach is highly dependent on setting
                  appropriate average sales performance for each retail category both now and into the
                  future. Sales performance varies markedly depending on whether retailers are in
                  shopping centres vs on-street tenancies, and there is little or no official data with which
                  to calibrate such figures. The result is that this approach is prone to error, especially
                  when forecasting over longer time periods.

                  Average retail provision per capital has historically increased over time, but in the analysis
                  presented below it has been held constant to reflect the increasing share of demand that
                  is ‘lost’ to online shopping.

                  The analysis is conducted with 2022 as a starting point to align with the date at which
                  retail floorspace surveys were conducted.

                  Traditional retail provision analysis

                  On average, traditional retail floorspace is provided at an average of approximately
                  1.6 sqm per capita. This is based on the recognised Australia-wide retail floorspace
                  provision rate of approximately 2.2 sqm per capita, with 0.6 sqm per capita deducted to
                  reflect the typical contribution of floorspace occupied by shops selling LFR goods. These
                  figures are consistent with the approach used in the Noosa Shire Retail Plan.




                  Noosa Village Mixed Use Development – Economic Impact Statement for Development Application   Deep End Services