Attachment 7- Economic Impact Statement

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7.2 Approach   The approach used to analyse competitive trading effects can be summarised as follows:
               1.   Turnover achieved by the proposed Noosa Civic Village has been forecast for the first
                    full year of trading in 2027 based on:
                    a. A detailed market share assessment for the supermarket component
                    b. Typical industry averages
                    c. Sales evidence from the existing Noosa Civic Shopping Centre
                    d. Market share expectations for non-supermarket tenants
                    e. Contributions from visitors, especially due to the introduction of new elements
                         such as cinemas and entertainment venues
                    f. The competitive retail environment.
               2.   A similar exercise has been conducted to forecast sales at the Retail Stage 2
                    development in order to examine cumulative impacts.
               3.   The performance of existing centres has been estimated for 2022, and then projected
                    forwards to 2027 broadly in line with market growth over that period.
               4.   The extent to which the sales achieved at Noosa Civic Village (and the combined
                    sales including the Retail Stage 2 application) would be redistributed away from
                    individual competing centres is then modelled separately by broad retail category
                    before being aggregated at the centre level. A range of factors are used in
                    determining these effects, including competitive relevance, the role and relative
                    market shares achieved by each centre, proximity, and other factors likely to affect
                    the extent to which any shopping trips may be switched from one location to another.
                    Some of these specific factors that affect the competitive impacts on individual
                    centres include the following:
                    a. The new supermarket is assumed to be a full-line store operated by one of the
                         major national brands. Given normal shopping patterns, potential impacts would
                         be on the closest nearby alternatives (ie the Woolworths stores at Noosa Civic,
                         Noosaville and Tewantin and the Coles stores at Noosa Junction and Peregian
                         Springs). Often there is a degree of switching of shopping trips within a brand
                         group if the new store is more convenient – this may occur, for example, if Coles
                         were secured for the supermarket operator.
                    b. Impacts from other tenants would be concentrated mainly on other centres that
                         provide for a mix of convenience retail and non-food shopping, such as
                         Noosaville, Noosa Heads, and Noosa Junction, and to a much lesser degree
                         coastal centres further away.
                    c. Impacts from lifestyle type retailing of the kind likely to occupy the Retail Stage 2
                         development would be on the larger centres within the catchment that provide
                         depth in those categories, such as Noosa Civic, Noosa Heads, and to some
                         degree Noosa Junction and Coolum Beach. However, much of this impact would
                         be on larger centres outside the catchment such as at Maroochydore and even
                         metropolitan Brisbane, reflecting the need to travel outside the region to access
                         higher-order comparison shopping in non-food categories.
               5.   Impacts are then calculated as the decline in sales and a percentage of sales
                    otherwise achieved in 2027, and as the overall effect on sales compared to current
                    estimates for 2022.



               Noosa Village Mixed Use Development – Economic Impact Statement for Development Application   Deep End Services