Changes to Report to incorporate Attachment H · MCU13/0092

Page 2

DYE iasl=18

The sole purpose of this report is to
provide Multispan Australia Group
Pty Ltd (the Client) with information
aeceeolcerlo MUO a8
Partners Pty Ltd’s scope of services
set out in its proposal to the Client.

ose G eee A o0eL
information relevant to this report
provided by government agencies,
the Client and others, Except as
otherwise stated in the report,
Foresight Partners has not
attempted to verify the accuracy or
completeness of such information.

The assumptions underlying the
ae observations, forecasts
and conclusions presented in this
report are subject to significant
uncertainties and contingencies.
Biotec ome etm MUNA LCL
significantly from forecast results.
Foresight Partners do not make or
imply any warranty or guarantee
with respect to the data reported or
to the findings, observations,
forecasts and conclusions
expressed in this report, Foresight
Cee-Lo) LOL
guarantee achievement of any
forecast growth or performance, as
future events, by nature, are not

ee to independent

confirmation or substantiation.

ABN 59 111 542 673

Suite 31, Level 4

Fol O Slo RSr Ne MS UCCAE
Ul isa

(el VN

QLD, 4122

P: (07) 3422 2011
F: (07) 3422 0899
www foresightpartners.com.au

 

CONTENTS

 

 

Retail Network 1
Market Fundamentals 1
Centre Performance and impacts............0+ sseeeeeeatsesesnntaneonsecerensans 2
Community NOed.......sssscsessssssseessneseescersneseersessesessrstsessrsenetsrees aserenentoes 2

1.1. Purpose of Report and Methodology... &

2. PEREGIAN RETAIL NETWORK..........cccccccssssecssseeeseesseseseeeees®

2.1. Noosa Plan Centres Hierarchy 6

 

2.2 Existing Centres..........scssssessesssssersesersensssessssessssrseessnetsersssees sae D

3. MARKET FUNDAMENTALG............0.:ccscescssssesesessseseseeseseee 11

3.1 Trade Area Defined 1

 

+ 13

 

3.2 Current and Forecast Population and Households.
3.3 Socio-economic Characteristics ..........ccsessesereesereeseneeennenenee 14

3.4 Household Retail Spending Potential ............:sccsesssesereeereeeeee 17

4. CENTRE PERFORMANCE, POTENTIAL IMPACTS AND

4.1 Performance Prospects........sscssssesesessseeesssseecscecsrseeresseesseseecesere 19

 

4.2 Impact Analysis 21

4.2 Community Need and Demand we 24

 

4.3 CONCIUSIONS......cccccssereeterenssrevsesesetsesses ceeeeneeereeeee seessaststeteneesteneees 20
Appendix A — Proposed Development Plans ...........sssssssseeenseeereere 29

+. 30

 

Appendix B - Eastern Beaches Zone Map..

Page 3

 

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1.1: Site Area, Proposed Convenience Centre 3
Figure 2.1: Noosa Plan Centre Hierarchy 6
Figure 3.1: Forecast Main Trade Area and Competing Centres 12
Figure 3.2: Average Age of Visitors in Trade Area 16
LIST OF TABLES
Table 2.1: Centres Located In or Near the Proposed Shopping Centre
Trade Area 8
Table 3.1: Estimated Population and Households, Proposed Centre
Trade Area, 2011 to 2021 13
Table 3.2: Summary of selected socio-economic characteristics, Trade
Area, 2011 14
Table 3.3: Average Household Retail Expenditure by Commodity Group
(December 2012 $ values) 17
Table 3.4: Total available retail spend, Trade Area Catchment, 2011 to
2021 18
Table 4.1: Indicative Tenancy Mix, Proposed shopping centre 19
Table 4.2: Forecast Centre Turnover (December 2012 $ Values) 21
Table 4.3: Forecast Turnover for Supermarket & Specialities (December
2012 $ values) 21

Table 4.4: Distribution of Impacts, first full year of trading, June 2015 23

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SUMMARY

Foresight Partners was commissioned to prepare an economic impact and needs
assessment for a proposed neighbourhood centre on Rufous Street, Peregian Beach.

The proposed centre’s gross lettable area is 1,844m? (1,900m? gross floor area)
comprising an 1,100m? IGA supermarket and eight specialty shops. It is intended to serve
local residents, the workforce in the vicinity of the site and visitors in Peregian Beach,
Marcus Beach and Castaways Beach.

Retail Network

Peregian Beach provides the local shopping functions for Peregian Beach, Marcus Beach
and Castaways Beach.

It has approximately 100 retail and commercial premises, mainly located in and near the
village square. The town’s principal food and grocery store is a Friendly Grocer of
approximately 250m? located on Heron Street in Peregian Village Square. This store will
be closing down due to redevelopment likely leaving only one small food/grocery store
(approximately 150m?) in Peregian Beach which is expected to be part of the approved
Essence Development on David Low Way. A food store of this size offers only a small
product range generally limited to confectionary, drinks and a small variety of convenience
food. Without a local supermarket residents of Peregian Beach must travel outside their
community for basic food and grocery needs. The nearest full line supermarket is at
Peregian Springs, some 4.3 km from the subject site.

Our assessments of the Village Square over the past several years indicate that it has
performed well, with few vacancies evident. Discussions with local agents reveal that the
tetail tenancies within Peregian Beach are tightly held and there is strong demand for
retail space. The lack of supermarkets indicates a clear void in the existing retail provision.
However, there are no suitably zoned sites of sufficient size in Peregian Beach to
accommodate a supermarket.

As well as local convenience shopping, business and community services the Peregian
Beach Village Square provides a central hub for visitor and local community interaction,
activity and entertainment.

Market Fundamentals

The proposed centre will have a convenience shopping and services focus and will
complement the established retail network in the Village Centre.

The forecast main trade area encompasses Peregian Beach, Marcus Beach and extends
north to Castaways Beach. The trade area had a usual resident population of about 4,407
people residing in 1,706 private dwellings as at the 2011 Census. Growth in the trade area
region is expected to be minimal, due to constraints in availability of vacant residential
land, and the limited scope to develop residential areas to a higher density. Over the

 

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whole of the forecast period of 2011 to 2021, it is conservatively estimated that trade area
growth will be about 300 new residents. Household size is expected to slightly decrease
over this time, which is reflective of the higher proportion of retirees and empty nesters
likely to occupy the vacant homes.

Average household spending on retail goods and services by trade area households is
about $30,000 per annum, which is slightly above that of the Sunshine Coast region
($29,010) and slightly below the Queensland average ($31,030). As at June 2011, trade
area households generated approximately $51.2 million in retail sales potential, and this is
expected to increase to about $54.2 million by June 2015, the proposed centre’s assumed
first full year of trading. By June 2021 available spending is forecast to reach $58.7 million
(constant 2012 $ values).

Centre Performance and impacts

The proposed centre is forecast to generate turnover of $12.6 million in 2015 (the
assumed first full year of trading), of which $10.7 million will be generated by trade area
residents. The remaining $1.9 million (15%) of its sales is expected to come from visitors
and passing trade. Assuming a constant market share is maintained, the centre’s turnover
would increase to $13.6 million by 2021.

About $3.8 million in turnover (30%) is forecast to be redirected from Peregian Springs
Shopping Centre resulting in a forecast 12.1% impact on its turnover. The subject centre
is also forecast to have impacts on Coolum Park Shopping Centre (7.3%), Coolum
Shopping Village (4.9%), Noosa Centres (1%) and Other Peregian Beach retailers (8.2%).
However, impacts are unlikely to adversely affect the vitality and viability of any existing
supermarkets or retail centres, and initial impacts will be ameliorated by continuing market
growth.

Of the centre’s forecast $12.6 million in year one turnover more than $10.5 million (85%)
is expected to be recapture of spending currently escaping from Peregian Beach.

Community Need

The establishment of a small neighbourhood centre with a supermarket will fill a
substantial market void in the Peregian Beach area. The need for the proposed centre is
indicated by the lack of a supermarket serving the trade area and the resulting substantial
expenditure escaping from the local community.

The proposed centre has particular benefits including greater local retail choice, enhanced
local accessibility to commonly used retail facilities, reduction in escape spending, a boost
to locally based employment and greater job containment. Moreover, a community the
size of Peregian Beach would reasonably expect to be serviced by a focal supermarket. It
is therefore concluded that there is a clear and significant economic and community need
for the proposed neighbourhood centre.

 

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1. INTRODUCTION

Multispan Australia is seeking a Development Permit for a Material Change of Use for a
small shopping centre on a 6,503m’ site located at 5-7 Rufous St, Peregian Beach. The
site, formerly utilised as the Peregian Beach Bowls Club, is currently vacant and is zoned
Open Space Recreation under the Noosa Plan. Figure 1.1 shows the location of the site.

Figure 1.1: Site Area, Proposed Convenience Centre

a

 

 

 

 

Subject Site

 

Source: Google Earth, February 2013

Plans for the proposed shopping centre (see Appendix A) indicate a gross floor area of
approximately 1,900m? with a gross lettable area of 1,844m? comprising:

e 1,100m? IGA supermarket;
e 140m? Bottle shop (tenancy two and three);
e 70m? take-away food;

¢ 62m? coffee shop;

 

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¢ 105m? Newsagent;

e 159m? Chemist;

¢ 108m? Hot Bread (Bakery); and
¢ 100m? Australia Post.

Vehicle entry and exit is proposed to David Low Way and will provide direct access to the
main Peregian Beach thoroughfare. The centre is intended to provide a range of
convenience services and shopping as well as food services for the residents of Peregian
Beach.

1.1. Purpose of Report and Methodology

Foresight Partners Ltd was commissioned to prepare this economic impact and needs
assessment for the proposed centre. The primary objectives of this assessment are to:

. assess the market prospects of the proposed centre;

. evaluate its potential adverse economic impacts upon the viability and vitality of
other centres including Peregian Beach Village Square, and its implications for
other approved or planned centre development; and

° assess the community need for the proposed centre, and the potential benefits
and dis-benefits accruing to the Peregian Beach community.

In preparing this report, a number of investigations were undertaken. These included:

® areconnaissance of the Peregian Beach area, undertaken in January 2013, noting
the position of the site, surrounding land uses and accessibility;

e determination of the centre’s likely trade area, based upon the location of other
centres, their functional role and competitiveness, the road network, topography
and other factors;

e a reconnaissance and inventory of retail centres in and near the defined trade
area, noting their retail composition, role and function, vacant space and other
observable characteristics to assist in the assessment of potential impacts and
benefits of the proposed centre;

e preparation of population and household projections for this trade area based on
historic dwelling approval data, and population projections for the Peregian Beach
area;

e extraction and examination of the socio-economic characteristics of trade area
households as derived from the 2011 (and 2006) Census and interpretation in
terms of demand for the dining and convenience based retail activity;

« estimation of the pool of expenditure available from trade area households at June
2011 (the base year for this analysis) and forecasts of how this pool will increase
over time (in constant December 2012 dollar values); and

 

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e estimation of the likely performance prospects of the centre in its first, third and
fifth years of trading derived from a market share analysis. We have based this
analysis on the assumption that the proposed centre would open in 2014 and, for
the purposes of population expenditure projections and impact analysis, the year
ending June 2015 is the assumed first full year of trading.

These investigations provided the basis for this needs and impact analysis.

Section 2 of this report provides an overview of Noosa’s centre hierarchy and the
proposed centre’s role and function within it, and sets out details of the centres in and
near the defined trade area which could potentially affect, or be affected by, the proposed
centre.

Section 3 provides a formal definition of the centre’s expected trade area, the presentation
of socio-economic characteristics of its residents and households relevant to retail
spending and need and demand for retail facilities, population and household forecasts
and estimates of current and future retail spending potential, and other factors likely to
influence its performance and function.

Section 4 sets out our forecasts of the proposed centre’s performance and discusses the
implications of the potential impact of this new centre on Peregian Beach and surrounding
network of centres, together with prospects for amelioration of these impacts over time.
Community and planning need and demand for the centre are then discussed.

 

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2. PEREGIAN BEACH RETAIL NETWORK

2.1. Noosa Plan Centres Hierarchy

The Noosa Plan is the planning scheme covering the former Noosa Shire, and the
scheme under which the proposed development in Peregian Beach will be assessed. The
Noosa Plan has a hierarchy of centres serving the broader Noosa area comprising a Shire
Business Centre, four Business Centres and a number of Neighbourhood, Village and
Visitor Centres. Figure 2.1 below illustrates the Centre’s Hierarchy in the planning scheme
for the Noosa Region.

Figure 2.1: Noosa Plan Centre Hierarchy

Sti
Ty
(eT ary

Neighbourhoo
d Centre

Village
Centre

 

The Shire Business Centre located off Eenie Creek Road, Noosaville is designated as the
business and employment focus of the Shire and amongst industrial, commercial and
community facilities includes the Noosa Civic Shopping Centre anchored by Woolworths
and Big W. It provides the highest order retail, commercial, community and government
services for the area contained within the shire boundaries.

The four existing Business Centres consist of:
e Noosa Junction;
e Noosaville;
e Tewantin; and

e Cooroy.

 

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The intent of the Business Centres is to accommodate some commercial and retail infill
within the Business Zone to service the surrounding population but not to the extent that
they, individually or cumulatively, would adversely affect the viability, vitality or Shire
Business Centre roles of the Noosa Business Centre .

Noosa’s network of Neighbourhood and Village Centres consists of smaller centres
catering to the convenience retail needs of neighbourhoods and local areas.

The scheme also includes Visitor Mixed Use Zones at Hastings Street, Noosa Heads;
Gympie Terrace, Noosaville; Duke Street at Sunshine Beach; and Heron Street at
Peregian Beach. These centres also contribute significantly to retail and hospitality
employment.

Peregian Beach sits at the southern end of the Eastern Beaches zone of The Noosa Plan,
(see Zone Map ZM4 in Appendix B) and is identified as a Neighbourhood Centre.
Peregian Beach provides the local shopping functions for Peregian Beach, Marcus Beach
and Castaways Beach. These areas are less convenient to facilities at Peregian Springs,
Noosa Junction, Noosa Heads and Coolum Beach. A wide range of local retail,
commercial and entertainment and dining uses within the neighbourhood centre serve the
immediate needs of residents and visitors of the locality.

The proposed shopping centre, with a lettable area of 1,844m*, (1,900m? gross floor
area), would be classified as a small neighbourhood centre.

2.2 Existing Centres

This section sets out a brief description of the centres and retail areas most relevant to the
market prospects and potential impacts of the proposed development in Peregian Beach.
The relevant areas include the localities within the Eastern Beaches Zone (Peregian
Beach, Peregian Springs, and the small beachside localities of Sunrise and Sunshine
Beach), Coolum Beach and the Noosa area.

There are a number of small neighbourhood retail centres and nodes servicing the
Eastern Beaches area. Figure 3.1 shows the locations of the large and small centres in
and near the proposed shopping centre’s trade area. Although Noosa Civic and other
larger centres further afield are shown, these would have little bearing on the retail
prospects and tenancy options for the proposed development.

Table 2.1 summarises existing and proposed supermarkets and grocery stores within
approximately 20 kilometers of Peregian Beach.

 

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Table 2.1: Centres Located In or Near the Proposed Shopping Centre Trade Area

 

 

 

 

Supermarket Driving Distance

/Grocery Centre Name Address Suburb from Subject Site

Existing

Green Grocer 7, Square 6 Heron St Peregian Beach 600m
Peregian Springs 7 i - ‘ .

Coles Shopping Centre 1 Ridgeview Drive Peregian Springs 4.3km

Coles Tees) Shopping 19 Birtwil St & Margaret St. Coolum Beach 6.2km

Shop 4 / 154 Yandina

Foodworks Coolum Coolum Rd Coolum Beach 7.9km
Sunrise Beach -

Foodworks Shopping Centre Shop 8, Grasstree Court Sunrise Beach 8.9km

Foodworks Sunshine Beach 44 Duke Street Sunshine Beach 9.1km
Coolum Park

Woolworths Shopping Centre South Coolum Rd Coolum Beach 9.6km
Noosa Fair Shopping

Coles Cl 3 Lanyana Way Noosa Heads 10.7km

entre

IGA Noosa Junction Plaza 81 Noosa Drive Noosa Heads 10.9km

Aldi 201 Weyba Rd Noosaville 12.9km
Noosa Village ‘ 7

Woolworths Shopping Centre Cnr Gibson Rd & Mary St Noosaville 14.7km

Woolworths Noosa Civic roy Be reek Rd & Walter Noosa Heads 14.8km

Spar Express Noosa tie 4-5, 6 Swanbourne Noosaville 17.6km

IGA Noosa Outlook 63-73 St Andrews Drive Tewantin 19.9km

Approved
Essence - .

Food store Development 15 David Low Way Peregian Beach 400m

 

Source: Foresight Partners

2.2.1

Network Performance

The following retail facilities will be the main determinants of the trade area and
performance of the proposed shopping centre in Peregian Beach.

Peregian Beach

Peregian Beach has approximately 100 retail and commercial premises, mainly located in
and near the village square. The town’s principal food and grocery store is a 250m?
Friendly Grocer located on Heron Street in Peregian Village Square. The Friendly Grocer
site will be redeveloped to include a restaurant with commercial offices on the first floor.
While there is provision for a 50m? food store as part of the development approval there is
no indication at this point in time that the food store component will proceed.

 

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The field investigations revealed only one retail vacancy within Peregian Beach Village
Square, an upstairs tenancy adjacent to the Village Square in the newly constructed
Peregian Boardwalk. However, discussions with local agents and research conducted via
www.realcommercial.com.au have identified there are two small retail tenancies coming
available for lease in the Village Square, providing a combined retail vacancy of 97m’.
There are six vacant commercial tenancies in the Village Square and Peregian Boardwalk
area totaling 249m”. There is a further 400m? (approximately) of vacant commercial space
in the newly constructed Marquesas buildings along David Low Way (adjacent to the
subject site).

In addition, a material change of use development approval has been granted over the
caravan site at 15-19 David Low Way. Stage one of the development will include a
commercial building fronting David Low Way, including a 306m? restaurant , 387m? of
retail on the ground level and 58 bed visitor accommodation on the upper level. Of the
387m? allocated to retail tenancies, it is expected that a food store will occupy one of the
tenancies comprising approximately 150m’. These uses are expected to be largely
complementary to the proposed development.

South

Peregian Springs, located around 4.3 kilometres to the south of Peregian Beach, is the
nearest location with a full line supermarket. The Neighbourhood Centre is comprised of a
Coles supermarket (2,794m’) and an additional 18 retail specialty and commercial
tenancies. There were three observed vacancies in this centre.

The Coolum Beach area, approximately 6.5km south of Peregian Beach, is the nearest
location with a full line Woolworths. It has two full-line supermarkets and one smaller
grocery store:

e A Woolworths supermarket (2,800m’) is located in Coolum Park Shopping Centre
on South Coolum Road at the intersection with Yandina-Coolum Road, some
9.6km from the subject site.

e Anew 2,500m? Coles supermarket located in Coolum Shopping Village, on Birtwill
Street, around 6.2 km from the subject site. The Coles replaced the IGA that was
situated there previously.

e A Foodworks store is located on Yandina-Coolum Road, approximately 7.9km
from the subject site.

North
The nearest food stores to the north of Peregian Beach are:

e A 520m? Foodworks store located at Sunrise Beach, some 8.9km from the subject
site; and

e A 260m? Foodworks store located at Sunshine Beach, some 9.1km from the
subject site.

 

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2.2.2 — Implications

None of the abovementioned supermarkets and food stores is considered to directly
compete with the proposed development as ail are well outside of Peregian Beach. The
existing Friendly Grocer food store will be closing down due to redevelopment leaving only
one food store located within the identified trade area that is likely to affect, or be affected
by, the proposed shopping centre development. This is an approved small food store
(approximately 150m?) which is expected to be part of the Essence Development on
David Low Way.

A food store of this size has a limited product range generally offering confectionary,
drinks and a small range of convenience food which is insufficient to meet the daily and
weekly shopping needs of residents and visitors. The timing of this development is
unknown, the original development approval was granted in 2010.

Some level of vacant space in the retail network is part of a healthy retail network as it
allows new businesses to enter the market and enables existing businesses to expand (or
contract) in response to changing market conditions. The presence of some vacant space
also helps to moderate rents within an area.

The low vacancy levels observed, and the general presentation and tenancy mixes of
existing centres suggest that the retail network serving the Peregian Beach area is
functioning well. Within Peregian Beach Village Square the quality of retail space is quite
low with only small retail tenancies available and inadequate parking provisions. Our
observations and tenancy records of the Village Square over the past several years also
indicate that it has performed well, with few vacancies evident. Discussions with local
agents reveal that the retail tenancies within Peregian Beach are tightly held and there is
strong demand for retail space.

 

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3. MARKET FUNDAMENTALS

This section defines the trade area likely to be served by the proposed shopping centre.
The socio-economic characteristics of the trade area’s resident population and forecasts
of population growth and household formation are presented, together with estimates of
household expenditure potential available now and in future years.

3.1 Trade Area Defined

Several factors will influence the geographic extent of the proposed centre’s probably
trade area, such as:

e the size, composition and function of the proposed centre development;
e its layout, ambience and parking;

e the size, composition and proximity of competitive centres;

e nature and proximity of other attractions;

e ease of access by car and foot; and

e natural and man-made barriers to movement such as the road network and
topographic features.

The proposed shopping centre development, which is considered a small Neighbourhood
Centre under Council’s hierarchy of centres, will be anchored by an IGA supermarket and
supported by a range of convenience oriented shops and services. The centre and site
will fill a market gap in the Peregian Beach and surrounding area, and complement the
network of established neighbourhood centres in and near the proposed centre’s trade
area.

Figure 3.1 shows the forecast main trade area defined for the purpose of the proposed
shopping centre, based upon 2011 Census Statistical Area 1 (SA1) boundaries, which are
now the smaliest geographic area for which 2011 census data is available.

The trade area encompasses the towns of Peregian Beach, Marcus Beach and
Castaways beach. The proposed centre will principally serve a geographic area for which
it is more convenient than other supermarkets. Therefore, the boundaries of the trade
area are restricted by centres with full-line supermarkets in Peregian Springs and Coolum
to the South. To the north, the centre would draw patronage from as far as the Marcus
and Castaways Beach area which currently has no food store facilities. The trade area is
bounded by Noosa National Park and to the west and the Coral Sea to the east.

Other than the existing Friendly Grocer food store which will be closing down due to
redevelopment, there are no supermarkets or food stores in the trade area. A possible
outlet in the proposed Essence Development, in view of its small size, would function as a
convenience store rather than a supermarket.

 

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Figure 3.1: Forecast Main Trade Area
and Competing Centres

ed

      
    
      
  
 

  
 

Noosa
Outtook

Sunrise Beach
Shopping Centre

  

Sunrise Beach

(Castaways) Beach

*
a
yx ;
’
Sy %
& 4
A 4
4 4
y 4 4
mete cial) Beach’ : }
ve em) 1
' , i
i i
a a
é i
3 ,
, a
? ?
a 7
a
?
?
gw
¢
o
a?
a
Coolum Beach
0 1.5
kilometres
ON) Trade Area @ Woolworths  @IGA @ Aui @ Friendly Grocer
: il : e-> Peregian Beach Approved
Subject Site [t Village @ Coles A Food Store A Foodworks A Spar Express

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The proposed development will be anchored by an IGA with a lettable area of 1,100m*
which will be less than half that of full line supermarkets. Accordingly, centres with full line
supermarkets in Peregian Springs, Coolum, Noosaville and elsewhere outside the trade
area will continue to capture a significant proportion of trade area resident expenditure on
food and groceries. However, the proposed centre is also expected to capture some
additional trade from other sources including passing traffic and visitors which is forecast
to account for about 15% of sales.

3.2 Current and Forecast Population and Households

Table 3.1 sets out the usual resident population and households for the trade area at the
2011 Census and Foresight Partners’ estimates of forecast population and households
through to 2021.

The projected trade area population is derived from small area forecasts by the
Queensland Government's Office of Economic and Statistical Research. At June 2011,
the total market area’s usual resident population was 4,407 people residing in 1,706
private dwellings.

Growth in the trade area region is expected to be minimal, as Peregian Beach is close to
its population capacity. Future growth in Peregian is constrained by the availability of
vacant land to accommodate any significant increase in dwelling demand, and the limited
scope of developing residential areas to a higher intensity. The area is constrained to the
east by the Coral Sea and to the west by the Noosa National Park so most of the future
growth in the broader Peregian area will be confined to the Peregian Springs area.

Over the whole of the forecast period of 2011 to 2021, it is conservatively estimated that
trade area growth will be about 300 new residents. Future increases in households are
likely to occur from the occupation of vacant homes rather than from the construction of
new homes, with average household sizes remaining small (around 2.5 persons per
occupied dwelling) and declining slightly over time.

Table 3.1: Estimated Population and Households, Proposed Centre Trade Area, 2011 to 2021

 

 

Trade Area 2011 2015 2017 2019 2021 | Increase 2011-21
Population 4,407 4,530 4,590 4,650 4,700 293
Households 1,706 1,770 1,800 1,830 1,860 154
Persons per dwelling 2.58 2.56 2.55 2.54 2.53

 

 

 

Source: ABS 2011 Census, Foresight Partners estimates

 

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3.3. Socio-economic Characteristics

3.3.1 Residents

A summary of the key socio-economic characteristics for the proposed centre’s trade area
as at the 2011 Census is shown in Table 3.2. Data for the Sunshine Regional Council
(SRC) area and Queensland are included as benchmarks.

Table 3.2: Summary of selected socio-economic characteristics, Trade Area, 2011

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Trade Area enix Queensland
Age (%)
0-14 19.7 18.9 20.3
15-24 9.3 11.2 13.6
25-44 23.2 23.7 27.9
45-64 32.4 28.1 25.2
65+ 15.5 18.1 13.1
Employment (%)
In labour force 64.3 61.4 66.8
Unemployed 6.9 7A 6.1
White collar occupations 75.5 67.5 66.6
Employed per household 0.9 1.0 1.2
Household Income (%)
$0-$31,000 23.6 27.2 22.8
$31,000-$65,000 32.2 32.0 27.7
$65,000-$156,000 35.8 34.6 39.4
Over $156,000 8.4 6.2 10.2
Average ($2012 values) $75,109 $69,563 $ 80,894
Dwellings (%)
Detached/semi-detached 85.7 86.7 87.0
Flats/units 14.3 11.5 11.8
Other structure 0.0 1.9 1.3
Owned/purchasing 66.1 68.3 65.1
Mobility (%)
No car 3.8 5.8 7.4
1 Car 37.3 38.7 36.5
2 or more cars 58.9 55.6 56.1
Education (Aged 20+)
Bachelor’s Degree 19.7 9.6 12.8
Grad Dip/Grad Cert 29 1.3 1.6
Postgraduate Degree 43 1.5 3.0

 

 

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Sunshine

 

 

Trade Area Coast LGA Queensland
Family Type
Couples with Children 29.6 27.9 31.0
Couples without Children 32.3 32.7 286
Single Parent Household 11.3 11.2 11.6
Lone Person Household 21.7 23.5 22.8
Group/Other Household 5.1 47 5.9
Ethnicity
Only English spoken at home 94.9 95.7 89.7

 

Source: ABS 2011 Census

The trade area’s key points of difference with these benchmarks are:

Peregian Beach’s population is considerably older, with a higher proportion of
people aged 45-64 (32%) compared to both the Sunshine Coast (28%) and
Queensland (25%). Both Peregian Beach and the Sunshine Coast have a higher
proportion of people aged 45+ (47.9% and 46.2% respectively) compared to
Queensland (38.3%).There is a greater benefit for retirees of having local facilities
because they have less propensity to travel outside the local area to work, school
and other destinations;

Average household income, a key determinant of retail spending power, is about
$75,109 (2012 $ vaiues) which is considerably higher than that of the Sunshine
Coast ($69,563), but slightly lower than that for Queensland ($80,894). The
average household size is slightly lower (2.42 compared to 2.58 in Queensland)
and the average number of persons employed per household is less than one
compared to 1.2 in Queensland indicating a higher income per person when
compared to state averages;

Trade area residents are highly mobile with only 3.8% of households reported to
have no car compared with the regional and Queensland average of 5.8% and
7.4% respectively and a higher proportion of people with 2 or more cars (58.9%)
compared to regional and state averages (55.6% and 56.1% respectively). The
Sunshine Coast region typically has a higher degree of mobility compared with the
state average due to lower levels of public transport usage;

Couples without children dominate the family types within the catchment (32.3%)
which is on par with the broader Sunshine Coast LGA (32.7%); both are slightly
higher the state average (28.6%); and

Catchment area residents are highly educated in comparison to regional and state
averages. The trade area has a much higher proportion of people with a
Bachelor’s Degree (19.7%) compared to the Sunshine Coast and Queensland
(9.6% and 12.8% respectively) and also a higher proportion of people with
Postgraduate Degrees (4.3%) compared to 1.5% on the Sunshine Coast and 3%

 

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in Queensland. This is reflected in the higher proportion of white collar employees
(75.5%) in the catchment area compared to 67.5% on the Sunshine Coast and
66.6% in Queensland.

3.3.2 Visitors

The proposed convenience centre is expected to draw the majority of its trade from the
trade area residents. However, given the locality is a preferred tourist destination a
proportion of the total spend will be accounted for by external sources such as visitor
households, people visiting friends and relatives, day trip visitors and passing trade.

There are approximately 131 townhouse/apartments available for visitors in the resorts
and holiday accommodation facilities in Peregian Beach and a further 439 unoccupied
private dwellings, of which it is assumed approximately 250 are in the pool for short-term
visitor accommodation. Given the average occupancy on the Sunshine Coast for the
September quarter 2012" is close to 60%, there is approximately an additional 230 visitor
households within the trade area.

The 2011 Census provides an indication of visitor characteristics on Census night. Of
greatest significance is the trade area visitors household income which is significantly
higher than all benchmarks at $99,366 (2012 $ values) and has an older age profile.
Figure 3.1 shows that of the 190 visitors in the trade area on Census night 141 were aged
45+, representing about 74% of the total number of visitors.

(This is based on a relatively small sample from the 2011 Census which was taken in August 2011,
a low visitation period and only provides a snapshot of the visitor profile for Peregian Beach on a
single night).

Figure 3.2: Average Age of Visitors in Trade Area

 

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Source: ABS Census 2011

The socio-economic characteristics indicate that residents and visitors of the trade area
have average household expenditure potential that is above the Sunshine Coast average.

3.4 Household Retail Spending Potential

Average retail expenditure levels for households in the trade area were derived using
average household income data based upon the 2011 Census, the ABS 2009-10
Household Expenditure Survey and National and State Accounts data. Dollar values from
these sources were inflated to common December 2012 values using Brisbane Consumer
Price Index data.

Average household retail expenditures for each component of the trade area were
compiled by the broad retail categories identified in the table below.

Future trade area convenience expenditure potential is forecast under the assumption that
in terms of constant dollars, there will be no change in average retail expenditure per
person over the forecast period. Therefore, changes in total trade area retail expenditure
are assumed to result only from changes in trade area population.

Table 3.3 sets out the estimated average household retail spending by trade area
households, divided into four commodity groups.

Table 3.3: Average Household Retail Expenditure by Commodity Group (December 2012 $ values)

 

 

 

Take home Meals out and Homewares and
food ($) take away ($) Apparel ($) services (S) Total ($)
Trade Area 10,500 4,530 2,450 12,520 30,000
Sunshine Coast 10,160 4,380 2,370 12,100 29,010
Queensland 10,870 4,690 2,530 12,940 31,030

 

 

 

Source: ABS 2009-10 Household Expenditure Survey, National and State Accounts; Foresight Partners
Calculations

Household spending on Take Home Food, Meals Out-Take Away and some Convenience
Homewares and Services will be of most relevance to the proposed development.

Trade area households currently average about $30,000 spending on retail goods and
services per annum, which is slightly above that of the Sunshine Coast region ($29,010)
and slightly below the Queensland average ($31,030)

Multiplying average household expenditures by the trade area households at the June
2011 base year produces an estimate of total retail expenditure potential. Similar
calculations for the forecast years 2015, 2017, 2019 and 2021 produces estimates of the
pool of expenditure potential available in the main trade area, as shown in Table 3.4.

Retail expenditure potential generated by trade area households at June 2011 is
estimated at $51.2 million, which should increase to:

 

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e $54.2 million by 2015
e $55.6 million by 2017;
e $57.1 million by 2019; and
e $58.7 million by 2021.

Over the ten year period to 2021, retail expenditure potential available from trade area
households is forecast to increase by about $7 million in constant 2012 dollar values. Of
this increase, $2.6 million will be for take home food.

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Table 3.4: Total available retail spend, Trade Area Catchment, 2011 to 2021

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Year ending Take home Meals out and Apparel Homewares and Total ($m)
June food ($m) _ take away ($m) ($m) services ($m)

2011 17.9 7.7 4.2 21.4 51.2
2015 19.0 8.2 4.4 22.7 $4.2
2017 19.5 8.4 45 23.2 55.6
2019 20.0 8.6 47 23.9 57.1
2021 20.5 8.9 48 24.6 58.7
Increase 2011-21 2.6 1.2 06 3.1 6.96

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4. CENTRE PERFORMANCE, POTENTIAL
IMPACTS AND NEED

4.1 Performance Prospects

The tenancy mix of the proposed centre will strongly influence its likely performance, as
will its location, accessibility and proximity to trade area residents, local workforce and
visitor accommodation.

4.1.1. Centre Composition and Function

The 1,844m? of lettable area at the proposed centre will be dominated by an IGA, which
will occupy 1,100m? or about 60% of its floorspace. A further 644m? is expected to be
occupied mostly by convenience food retailing and food services. This indicative tenancy
mix is summarized in Table 4.1.

Table 4.1: Indicative Tenancy Mix, Proposed shopping centre

 

 

 

Convenience Other

Shop type ane mae Mesig out’ Homewares {Non- Total (m*)

food (m?) takeaway (m’) (m’) Ratsit ni)
IGA supermarket 900 200 1100
Bakery/Cakes/Pastries 108 108
Bottle Shop 140 140
Takeaway 70 70
Cafes/restaurants 62 62
Newsagent 105 105
Pharmacy 159 159
Post Office 100 100
Total Centre Lettable 1148 132 464 400 1844
Area

 

 

Source: Foresight Partners

The tenancy mix defines the centre’s function within the surrounding network of centres.
As noted in Section 2, the proposed centre’s size is that of a small neighbourhood centre
however the specialised tenancy mix and limited competition within the trade area
differentiates it from the retail offering in the Peregian Village Square.

4.1.2 Market Share Analysis

In forecasting the turnover of the proposed convenience shopping centre the following
assumptions have been made:

 

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e The first full year of trading of the new centre is 2015.

e The supermarket will have a lettable area of 1,100m? (around one-third the size of
an average full-line supermarket).

e The closest full-line supermarket is Coles Peregian Springs, an 8.6 kilometre round
trip from Peregian Beach.

e¢ Competition will be as set out in Section 2.2. This includes the assumption that the
Green Grocer supermarket currently operating in the Peregian Square Village will
close prior to the first full year of operation in 2015 and the “Essence” development
will contain only a convenience food store.

e The new shopping centre will have a competitive standard of presentation,
operation and pricing.

4.1.3. Factors Determining Market Share

The forecast performance of the proposed centre is derived from the share of trade area
expenditure potential that it is considered likely to achieve. Market shares are drawn from
surveys and analysis of the performance of comparably sized stores.

The following factors are expected to be the principal determinants of the proposed
centre’s performance:

e The IGA will be the only supermarket within the trade area.

e The limited number of food retailers within the trade area and the distance to the
nearest full-line supermarkets will make the IGA the preferred destination for
convenience and top up shopping by trade area residents.

« The nearest supermarket (Coles at Peregian Springs) is 4.3km from the subject
site, a considerable distance in an urban area, which reduces its appeal as a
shopping destination by trade area residents where more convenient alternatives
are available.

« The position of the subject site provides several advantages for a convenience
centre, most notably the location, accessibility and parking provision, which is not
achieved in the Village Centre.

e The trade area has a relatively high proportion of retirees who will have limited
opportunity to shop at centres outside Peregian Beach on the way to and from
work, school and other destinations. This provides a more captive market for local
retailers.

For these reasons the centre is forecast to achieve a higher share of trade area resident
expenditure than would typically be expected for a centre of this size.

The proposed shopping centre is expected to attract about 39% of expenditure on take
home food from households within the trade area, plus a 10% market share on meals
out/takeaway and 25.4% share of convenience homewares and services spending. In

 

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total, the proposed shopping centre is expected to capture about 19.7% of total trade area
househoid expenditure in these product categories.

Table 4.2 sets out the forecast turnover. The proposed is forecast to achieve sales of
$12.6 million in its first full year of trading in 2015. Approximately $10.7 million of this will
come from Trade Area households, with the remaining $1.9 million (15%) of its sales
expected to come from visitors and passing trade. Assuming a constant market share is
maintained, the centre’s sales would increase to $12.9 million by 2017.

Table 4.2: Forecast Centre Turnover (December 2012 $ Values)

 

 

 

Se “food (sm) take-away ($m) APPArEL (Sm) Ore | Sm)
2015 87 1.0 0.0 2.9 12.6
2017 8.9 1.0 0.0 3.0 12.9
2019 9.2 1.0 0.0 31 13.3
2021 9.4 1.05 0.0 31 13.6
Increase 2011-21 1.2 09 0 0.3 7

 

 

 

Source: Foresight Partners Estimates

Table 4.3 shows the forecast distribution of turnover between the specialty shops and the
IGA supermarket. The average productivity level for the centre (turnover per square metre
of lettable area) is $7,202/m?, which is considered sufficient to sustain a centre of this size
and composition at 2015.

Table 4.3: Forecast Turnover for Supermarket & Specialities (December 2012 $ values)

 

 

2015 ($m) 2017($m) 2019 ($m) 2021 ($m)

turnover turnover turnover turnover

IGA supermarket (1,100m*) 7.9 8.1 8.3 8.5
Specialties (644m?) 4.7 48 5.0 5.1
Total $ 12.6 12.9 13.3 13.6
$/m* 7,202 7,403 7,603 7,810

 

 

Source: Foresight Partners Estimates
4.2 |Impact Analysis

4.2.1 Economic Impact Defined

Economic impact stems from the probable reduction in turnover at existing centres
attributable to the introduction of competitive development in the form of a new business
centre, or the expansion of an existing centre. The expected turnover generated by the
new centre, or the additional turnover generated by centre extensions, represents the

 

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dollar impact on an area’s centre network in the first full year of operation in which it is
introduced.

That is, once the new centre or centre extensions have been operating long enough to
‘settle in’ (usually a year), subsequent improvements in that centre’s turnover performance
cannot be considered as a further impact, as it is an established part of the network. It
then becomes subject to the impacts of competitive strategies of other centres and/or the
impacts of further new competition.

Dollar impacts are usually distributed among competitive centres taking into account:
. the new or extended centre’s size and function;
° the location of competitive centres of comparable size and/or function;
e access relative to competitive centres; and

° physical attributes of competitive centres, such as age, design, situation (free-
standing centre or part of a central business area), etc.

The level of acceptable impacts depends on market and competitive conditions. The
primary concern is to ensure that the premature or inappropriate introduction of a new
centre or centre extension does not jeopardise the current or future delivery of a range of
goods and services available in a variety of centre types and formats to the community.

4.2.1 Impacts

The forecast centre sales of $12.6 million at 2015 also represent its impact upon the retail
network in that year. Table 4.4 shows the centres forecast to be impacted by the proposed
centre and the estimated impact in dollar terms.

 

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Table 4.4: Distribution of Impacts, first full year of trading, June 2015

 

 

Estimated turn
over at first year
Sources of

turnover Before After Equiv
Impacted centres $M % $M $M impact
Peregian Springs Shopping Centre (Coles) 3.8 30% 35.0 31.2 12.1%
Coolum Park Shopping Centre (Woolworths) 25 20% 37.0 34.5 7.3%
Coolum Shopping Village (Coles) 1.3 10% 27.0 25.7 4.9%
Noosa Centres 2.5 20% 250.0 247.5 1.0%
Peregian Beach Village 1.9 15% 25.0 23.1 8.2%
Other 0.6 5% N/A N/A < 1.0%

12.6 100%

 

 

Source: Foresight Partners Estimates

Around $3.8 million (30% of the proposed centres total turnover) is forecast to be
redirected from Peregian Springs Shopping Centre, which equates to an expected 12.1%
impact on the centre’s turnover in the first full year of trading.

Most of the population growth forecast for the Peregian area will be accommodated in
Peregian Springs, this will translate to significant growth in retail spending available in the
catchment for the Peregian Springs Shopping Centre and will contribute to ameliorating
the impacts of the proposed new centre.

All other impacts are forecast to be less than 10%, and include impacts on Coolum Park
Shopping Centre which has the nearest Woolworths to Peregian Beach, on Coolum
Shopping Village and to a lesser extent on centres is Noosa.

Most of the impact of the subject centre is forecast to occur outside the Peregian Beach
area; however the centre will compete to some extent with individual retailers in Peregian
Beach. A projected $1.9 million in sales is forecast to be redirected to the subject centre
from various local retailers. The IGA supermarket, which will generate the largest share of
sales, has no equivalent in Peregian Beach and will therefore have minimal impact on
local retailers. The eight retail specialty shops in the proposed development will add to an
existing network of approximately 100 retail and commercial outlets, which represents
only a small portion of the existing network. The forecast impact on existing village
retailers will occur mainly on individual stores that have a counterpart in the proposed
centre.

It is expected that a restaurant will occupy the largest retail space in the approved
Essence development, together with a small food store and other tenants. As the likely
tenancy mix is largely complementary to the proposed development, the impact of the
proposed centre on the Essence development is forecast to be minor and will not have a
significant impact its viability.

 

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It is notable that of the centre’s forecast $12.6 million in year one turnover, more than
$10.5 million (85%) is expected to be recapture of spending currently escaping from
Peregian Beach. Thus, the proposal is expected to result in a net increase of over $10
million in annual turnover by Peregian Beach retailers.

4.2.2 Amelioration of Impacts and implications

Growth in retail spending generated by household formation and population growth
normally assists in partly or fully ameliorating impacts of a new centre upon the retail
network within a period of time (usually one to three years). Little net population growth is
expected within the trade area over the forecast period to 2021, although a change in the
mix of housing will contribute to a change in resident lifestyles and retail needs favourable
to the proposed centre over time.

The proposed shopping centre is expected to improve the availability, choice and
accessibility for a small local centre specialising in convenience retailing and personal
services, in an area which is poorly served by supermarket facilities. It will fill a ‘void’ in
the Peregian Beach and surrounding area, rather than rely on future population growth for
its market.

The western portion of Peregian Beach along with Peregian Springs is anticipated to
accommodate significant future growth. While the proposed IGA anchored centre will
redirect some spending from the Peregian Springs Shopping Centre the future population
growth and associated increase in available retail spend is forecast to ameliorate these
impacts in subsequent years.

While most of the impacts will come from outside of Peregian Beach there will inevitably
be some initial impacts on individual stores within the Village Square. Overall there will be
a net benefit to the retail environment in Peregian Beach from the addition of the proposed
centre as it will recapture substantial retail spending that is currently diverted to retail
centres outside the area.

For the reasons outlined above and in Section 4.1.3, it is concluded that the proposed
centre is unlikely to adversely affect the vitality and viability of any centre within or near
the trade area, and nor will it threaten or lessen their current functional roles and levels of
services they currently provide to the community.

4.3. Community Need and Demand

The establishment of a small neighbourhood centre with a supermarket will fill a
substantial market void in the Peregian Beach area. With the imminent closure of the
Friendly Grocer, Peregian Beach residents will have no local food and grocery store other
than a convenience store and a limited number of specialty food shops. Due to the lack of
a local supermarket, it is estimated that up to 90% of food spending by local residents will
be in stores outside of Peregian Beach following the closure of the Friendly Grocer.

 

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4.3.1. Convenience and Choice

The proposed centre will help ameliorate a relative deficiency of retail choice and variety
available to households within the trade area in an accessible and visible location. It will
be within easy walking distance (about 200 metres) of the Peregian Beach Village Square
and offer easily accessible car parking which is currently not available in the town centre.
The site is located adjacent to the Marquesas commercial building precinct offering a
central meeting place for workers for coffee, snacks, meals and convenience items either
on the journey to or from work.

4.3.2 Lack of appropriately designated and available sites

There are no other appropriately zoned alternative locations in the vicinity of the site which
could accommodate the proposed development. The largest potential sites are reserved
for alternative uses:

e 215-219 David Low Way, Peregian Beach: (Essence Development) the caravan
park site has development approval for the purposes of commercial and visitor
accommodation precincts. The approved development will consist of 30 beach
shacks, 32 three bedroom apartments and a commercial and retail precinct facing
David Low Way. The ground floor retail tenancies comprise 693m? across four
tenancies.

e 226 David Low Way: a vacant lot directly adjacent to the Peregian Boardwalk is
currently for sale with a development approval in place for a 12 unit motel with
reception office and restaurant.

As is evident from Figure 1.1 the area along David Low Way is being developed to more
intensive commercial land uses, such as the new Essence Development and commercial
uses surrounding the subject site. The development of the under-utilised subject site from
open space recreation to the proposed centre use represents a good land use outcome in
that it will provide needed facilities to better service the convenience needs of residents,
employees and visitors in the area.

The current retail offering in the Peregian Village Square is older and generally of poorer
quality. The Village It is comprised of small tenancies (generally less than 200m’) which
are not suitable for a supermarket of the size needed to meet the needs of the local
community.

Our analysis of the current retail network in Peregian Beach indicates there is not an
excess supply of retail floorspace in the market, while there is ongoing tenant demand for
retail space.

4.3.3. Employment

The centre will provide construction employment, and contribute to local job containment
by creating significant on-going local employment opportunities. A typical convenience
centre of the size proposed, using industry standard benchmarks, would create

 

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opportunities for about 70 full-time, part-time and casual ongoing jobs when the centre is
trading”. The provision of new jobs will enhance employment opportunities for locals which
are currently in locations outside the community, providing savings in travel time and
costs, and contributing to the local economy.

4.3.4 Escape Spending

An estimated $10.5 million in food grocery and other convenience spending currently
escapes from Peregian Beach will be recaptured when the proposed centre is trading,
thereby contributing to the Peregian Beach economy.

43.5 Other Benefits

e The proposed development aligns with the overall outcomes sought in the Noosa
Plan for the Peregian Beach locality include “a wide range of local Retail,
Commercial and Entertainment and Dining Uses within the neighbourhood centre
to serve the immediate needs of residents and visitors of the locality’. The
proposed development will provide a key element of this objective which is
currently not fulfilled through the provision of a local supermarket to serve the
immediate needs of residents and visitors.

e The proposal is compatible with surrounding land uses. The proposed centre is
located within an easy 200 metre walk from the heart of Peregian Beach with the
only supermarket in Peregian Beach the centre is expected to act as an extension
of the Neighbourhood Village Centre.

e The development will rehabilitate the site into an economic and employment
generating use that will be of benefit to residents and visitors; currently the site is
derelict and has been so since the Bowls club went into receivership in 2010. It
currently adds little value to the visual amenity and function of Peregian Beach.

« The Eastern Beaches Locality (Peregian, Marcus and Castaways Beach) lacks a
local supermarket to support the daily and weekly food and grocery needs of
residents and visitors.

4.4 Conclusions

Although small in scale, the proposed development will generate beneficial impacts which
include:

? Based upon an average of one worker per 26m? of neighbourhood shopping centre space. The
net increase in employment when the centre is trading will be less than this figure because some
employment will effectively be transferred from existing retailers.

° Page 29, Section 7.8.2, P, 3, The Noosa Plan

 

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e Provision of a more accessible and broader range of convenience shops and
services available to catchment residents, the nearby commercial workforce and
visitors;

e Improved job containment through the provision of on-going local employment
opportunities in retail, hospitality and professional services industries when the
centre is trading, as well as generating employment during the construction phase;

e Recapture of a forecast $10.7 million in annual retail spending which is currently
directed to centres outside Peregian Beach;

e Eliminating the need to travel a minimum 8.5km round trip for basic food and
grocery needs, thereby saving time and cost for local residents; and

e Enhancing local accessibility to basic retail needs, and thereby the greater
potential for walking and cycling.

It is concluded that these benefits will be achieved without threatening the viability of any
existing supermarkets or retail centres.

 

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Appendices

 

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Appendix A — Proposed Development Plans

 

 

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Appendix B - Eastern Beaches Zone Map

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

7 Eastern Beaches
} |(Zone Map ZM4)

 

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While every effort has been taken to verify the accuracy
of this information, The Economist Intelligence Unit
Ltd. cannot accept any responsibility or liability

for reliance by any person on this report or any of

the information, opinions or conclusions set out

in this report.

Cover image - © 3DProfi/Shutterstock