Changes to Report to incorporate Attachment H · MCU13/0092

Feresight

partnersienn

The proposed development will be anchored by an IGA with a lettable area of 1,100m*
which will be less than half that of full line supermarkets. Accordingly, centres with full line
supermarkets in Peregian Springs, Coolum, Noosaville and elsewhere outside the trade
area will continue to capture a significant proportion of trade area resident expenditure on
food and groceries. However, the proposed centre is also expected to capture some
additional trade from other sources including passing traffic and visitors which is forecast
to account for about 15% of sales.

3.2 Current and Forecast Population and Households

Table 3.1 sets out the usual resident population and households for the trade area at the
2011 Census and Foresight Partners’ estimates of forecast population and households
through to 2021.

The projected trade area population is derived from small area forecasts by the
Queensland Government's Office of Economic and Statistical Research. At June 2011,
the total market area’s usual resident population was 4,407 people residing in 1,706
private dwellings.

Growth in the trade area region is expected to be minimal, as Peregian Beach is close to
its population capacity. Future growth in Peregian is constrained by the availability of
vacant land to accommodate any significant increase in dwelling demand, and the limited
scope of developing residential areas to a higher intensity. The area is constrained to the
east by the Coral Sea and to the west by the Noosa National Park so most of the future
growth in the broader Peregian area will be confined to the Peregian Springs area.

Over the whole of the forecast period of 2011 to 2021, it is conservatively estimated that
trade area growth will be about 300 new residents. Future increases in households are
likely to occur from the occupation of vacant homes rather than from the construction of
new homes, with average household sizes remaining small (around 2.5 persons per
occupied dwelling) and declining slightly over time.

Table 3.1: Estimated Population and Households, Proposed Centre Trade Area, 2011 to 2021

 

 

Trade Area 2011 2015 2017 2019 2021 | Increase 2011-21
Population 4,407 4,530 4,590 4,650 4,700 293
Households 1,706 1,770 1,800 1,830 1,860 154
Persons per dwelling 2.58 2.56 2.55 2.54 2.53

 

 

 

Source: ABS 2011 Census, Foresight Partners estimates

 

13
Needs Assessment, Peregian Beach Centre
13002 Rev 2
19 February 2013