Changes to Report to incorporate Attachment H · MCU13/0092

Foresight

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whole of the forecast period of 2011 to 2021, it is conservatively estimated that trade area
growth will be about 300 new residents. Household size is expected to slightly decrease
over this time, which is reflective of the higher proportion of retirees and empty nesters
likely to occupy the vacant homes.

Average household spending on retail goods and services by trade area households is
about $30,000 per annum, which is slightly above that of the Sunshine Coast region
($29,010) and slightly below the Queensland average ($31,030). As at June 2011, trade
area households generated approximately $51.2 million in retail sales potential, and this is
expected to increase to about $54.2 million by June 2015, the proposed centre’s assumed
first full year of trading. By June 2021 available spending is forecast to reach $58.7 million
(constant 2012 $ values).

Centre Performance and impacts

The proposed centre is forecast to generate turnover of $12.6 million in 2015 (the
assumed first full year of trading), of which $10.7 million will be generated by trade area
residents. The remaining $1.9 million (15%) of its sales is expected to come from visitors
and passing trade. Assuming a constant market share is maintained, the centre’s turnover
would increase to $13.6 million by 2021.

About $3.8 million in turnover (30%) is forecast to be redirected from Peregian Springs
Shopping Centre resulting in a forecast 12.1% impact on its turnover. The subject centre
is also forecast to have impacts on Coolum Park Shopping Centre (7.3%), Coolum
Shopping Village (4.9%), Noosa Centres (1%) and Other Peregian Beach retailers (8.2%).
However, impacts are unlikely to adversely affect the vitality and viability of any existing
supermarkets or retail centres, and initial impacts will be ameliorated by continuing market
growth.

Of the centre’s forecast $12.6 million in year one turnover more than $10.5 million (85%)
is expected to be recapture of spending currently escaping from Peregian Beach.

Community Need

The establishment of a small neighbourhood centre with a supermarket will fill a
substantial market void in the Peregian Beach area. The need for the proposed centre is
indicated by the lack of a supermarket serving the trade area and the resulting substantial
expenditure escaping from the local community.

The proposed centre has particular benefits including greater local retail choice, enhanced
local accessibility to commonly used retail facilities, reduction in escape spending, a boost
to locally based employment and greater job containment. Moreover, a community the
size of Peregian Beach would reasonably expect to be serviced by a focal supermarket. It
is therefore concluded that there is a clear and significant economic and community need
for the proposed neighbourhood centre.

 

Needs Assessment, Peregian Beach Centre
13002 Rev 2
19 February 2013