SunshineCoastRegionalReport2ndQtr2004

TRADE – FEATURE INDUSTRY
BEEF CATTLE INDUSTRY OVERVIEW




                     Beef cattle sale yard prices are expected to fall in the coming months, although cattle numbers should
                                                                 increase slightly.

                                                                                                                         Commodity Outlook
                                                                         BEEF
                                                                                                                                    2002-03 2003-04 f    2004-05 s
                                                                           Australia
                                                                           Australia Saleyard Price (Ac/kg)                             256        287         280
                                                                           Cattle Numbers (million)                                    23.4       23.3        23.8
                                                                           Production (kt)                                            2,073      1,992       1,958
                                                                           Slaughterings (‘000)                                       9,228      8,699       8,320

                                                                           Export Volume (kt)                                           902        845         828

                                                                         Note: f-forecast, p-preliminary estimate, z-projection
                                                                         Source: ABARE Commodities Issues and Forecasts




BEEF
                                  Australian Beef Production & Price
                   2,400
                                     Production (LHS)      Weighted Average Price (RHS)
                                                                                                   100                    Embargoes on US beef exports should be lifted by the end of October
                   2,200
                                                                                                   125                    2004 after the discovery of a single case of BSE (bovine spongiform
                                                                                                   150                    encephalopathy or ‘mad cow’ disease) in the United States in December
                   2,000                                                                           175                    2003. This is expected to have a negative effect on saleyard prices, which
 Production (kt)




                                                                                                   200                    are forecast to fall by 2.4% to 280Ac/kg. The total value of exports is
                                                                                                         Price (Ac/kg)




                   1,800
                                                                                                   225                    expected to fall by 4.4% to A$3.5 billion.
                   1,600
                                                                                                   250

                   1,400                                                                           275                    The Australian cattle herd is forecast to increase by 2.3% to 26.9 million
                                                                                                   300                    in 2004-05. However, slaughterings are expected to fall 4.4% to 8.3
                   1,200
                                                                                                   325                    billion as a result of lower overall cattle numbers, a drought affected calf
                   1,000                                                                           350                    crop and the retention of stock to rebuild herd numbers.
                        1984-85     1988-89      1992-93       1996-97        2000-01       2004-05

Source: ABARE Commodities Forecasts and Issues




©0, Sunshine Coast Regional Economy, Second Quarter 2004                                                                                                                                      - 41 -