2017-04-11 P&E Agenda Attachment 1 to Item 1 Housing Needs Assessment

6.2 Analysis of Trends in Community Profile
Review of Noosa Shire Council’s Community Profile (AEC Group 2015) and census data over
time (2001 to 2011) suggest several demographic trends which may affect future housing
demand:

           Slowing population growth: Population growth has been slowing in Noosa Shire
            (Figure 50). Projections suggest that population growth will continue to slow to a
            growth rate of under approximately 1% per year after 2016 (Queensland Treasury, 2015
            Edition, Medium Series).
            The implication for housing will be that pressure on existing stock will be less strong than
            in the past, where growth rates between 16.5% and 5.1% were experienced in the period
            between 1981 and 1996 (see Figure 50). More recently this growth rate had slowed
            considerably to 1.3% between 2006 and 2011.


           Figure 50. Estimated resident population, Noosa Shire, 1976-2011




           Source: AEC Group 2015;

          In terms of population, this effectively means that the so called ‘population cap’23 or
          capacity of 56,500 people identified by the Mayor in 1995 for Noosa Shire would not be
          reached until 2026 under the Low series projection, approximately 2022-2023 under the
          Medium series projection, and 2021 under the High series projection. This is up to 20 years
          later than was envisaged at the time of the 1997 Strategic Plan, which projected a resident
          population of around 56,500 persons by 2007.
          In terms of dwellings, this means that the number of new dwellings required to reach
          capacity will also be needed less rapidly than may have been anticipated when the concept
          of the population cap was mooted. Hence under existing projections (see Section 6.3),


23
     i.e. the maximum potential for development intended by the planning scheme for the Shire as a whole at
that time (Noosa Council, 1999)




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