2017-04-11 P&E Agenda Attachment 1 to Item 1 Housing Needs Assessment

       between an additional 3,900 dwellings (under the Low series projection) and 6,440
       dwellings (under the High series projection) would be required to reach that capacity.
       The Noosa Plan 2006 re-estimated a population capacity for Noosa Shire of 61,350 people
       partly due to South Peregian being added to Noosa Shire: 40,150 people on the coast and
       20,200 people in the hinterland and rural areas. That population capacity was expected to
       be reached by now, however population increase slowed and if current levels remain, would
       not be reached until 2036 under the Medium series projection, some twenty years away.
       The Noosa Plan 2006 had already anticipated and planned for this approximate population
       to be in place by 2016, so theoretically there is capacity to support the same predicted
       2036 population under the current Plan. However, many remaining sites are perhaps those
       that are more complex to develop; town and village boundaries will continue to define the
       extent of land for development in Noosa Shire; and land for new ‘greenfield’ development
       remains limited, so in order to reach that capacity, other approaches such as infill
       development will need to be considered, and underutilised land more efficiently used. It is
       also noted that there is considerable turnover in population – with people leaving
       (anecdotally for a range of reasons) and arriving. These people may have different
       characteristics and different housing needs which may need to be accommodated.
        Ageing population profile: There will be significant changes in the population age
         profile of Noosa Shire between 2011 and 2036. These are shown in Table 43 and on
         Figure 51.
          o    An ongoing decline in the proportion of children and young people of all ages:
                       0 to 4 years (from 4.9% to 4.1%);
                       5 to 9 years (from 6.1% to 5.5%;
                       10 to 14 years (from 6.4% to 5.8%);
                       15 to 19 years (from 6.0% to 5.3%);
          o    An increase in the proportion of young people 20 to 24 from 4.1% in 2011 to a
               peak of 4.7% in 2016, after which this proportion will slowly decline to 4.0% at
               2036;
          o    A similar pattern for 25 to 29 year olds, although the peak in these will occur a little
               later, in 2026, after which they will decline to 2036;
          o    A decline in all age groups from 30 to 64 years between 2011 and 2036;
          o    A steady increase in all age groups over 65 years from 2011 to 2036, resulting in an
               overall increase of those over 65 from 19.4% in 2011 to 30.5% in 2036.




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