2017-04-11 P&E Agenda Attachment 1 to Item 1 Housing Needs Assessment

          Total Households                  15,949              17,438              19,109
                                            (100%)              (100%)              (100%)

        Source: ABS 2016;

        These trends will continue into the future. Projections for future household type are
        discussed in detail in Section 6.4. The implication for housing will be an increased need
        for smaller dwellings, and unless changes in dwelling stock occur, a greater mismatch of
        dwelling type with household type than currently exists. This is not to say that there will
        not always be small households that will prefer (and be able to afford) large dwellings
        e.g. many households in Noosa Shire may have more friends and relatives visiting than
        may be the case in a non-coastal locality. However there will be an increased number of
        households demanding smaller dwellings than currently.
       Decreasing household size: Average household size in the Noosa Shire decreased from
        2.42 people per household in 2001, to 2.40 in 2006, to 2.37 2011. Noosa Shire reported a
        lower average number of persons per household (2.4) compared to the SEQ Region (2.6)
        and the State (2.6) in 2011. Average occupancy also decreased slightly from around 2.0
        people per dwelling in 2001, to 1.8 in 2006 and 1.9 in 2011. This is a trend that is
        projected to increase over time, with Queensland Treasury predicting that average
        occupancy will fall from 2.1 in 2011 to approximately 1.97 in 2036 (medium series
        projection).
        The implication for housing will be the increased need for smaller dwellings, and unless
        changes in dwelling stock occur, potentially a greater mismatch of dwelling size and
        household size than currently exists. As above, this does not mean, however, that all
        smaller households will choose small dwellings, and there will still be a need for new
        larger as well as smaller dwellings.
       Growth in people needing assistance: Data on a person’s need for assistance has only
        been collected since 2006, however, the number of people in the Noosa Shire requiring
        assistance has increased by around 480 people between 2006 and 2011, and the
        proportion has increased from 4.4% to 5.1% of the population.
        The implication for housing will be an increased need for housing which is suitable for
        people with disabilities, or able to be readily modified.

6.3 Population, Household and Dwelling Projections
6.3.1    Population Projections
Population, household and dwelling projections are provided by the Queensland Government
(Queensland Treasury (QT)) at a variety of geographic scales.

Population projections are developed according to a multi-regional cohort component model
which means that for Queensland and SA4s each population cohort is aged over time to the
next age group, while taking into account assumptions on birth and death rates, and inward and
outward migration. Low, medium and high population growth assumptions are developed
based on different assumptions around fertility, mortality and migration. These projections at
the Queensland and SA4 levels are then apportioned to SA2s based on land supply capacity
assumptions for urban areas and a constant share of population for rural areas. Projections for
Local Government Areas are then aggregated based on the SA2 projections.

Population projections from the State Government are based on Estimated Resident Population
(ERP) so they include people who were away on census night but who are normally residents of




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