2017-04-11 P&E Agenda Attachment 1 to Item 1 Housing Needs Assessment

6.4 Estimating Future Housing Needs
Looking to the future, the growth in dwellings projected by the draft SEQ Region Plan offers an
opportunity to address the many issues raised in this report about the mismatch of housing
sizes, and the specific needs of many in our community or those who cannot afford to live
comfortably in the mainly larger dwellings on offer. This section models those needs.

6.4.1      Methodology
The modelling of future housing need in the Noosa Shire has involved a number of components
due to the significant number of dwellings in the Shire that are normally occupied by visitors
and the influence that an increase in tourism numbers might have on the residential market for
Noosa Shire residents. A separate ‘projection strategy’ was developed for each of these
components of dwelling stock in the Noosa Shire. These projection strategies are outlined in the
table below.

Table 52. Projection strategy for each component of dwelling stock

Component of dwelling                Projection strategy (strategy used to forecast/project
stock                                future needs)

Dwellings normally occupied          A propensity model is used to estimate future dwelling needs
by residents                         based on household type projections provided by the
                                     Queensland Government24. Three scenarios are developed to
                                     consider future changes in propensities of households to live in
                                     certain dwelling types based on findings of earlier sections of
                                     the report (particularly housing choice and housing
                                     affordability). This process and the findings are outlined in
                                     Section 6.4.2 below.

Dwellings normally occupied          Two types of tourist accommodation are considered: tourist
by visitors and tourist              accommodation (holiday resorts, motels, hotels etc), and visitor
accommodation                        dwellings (apartments, townhouses and holiday houses). These
                                     are separately considered, including assumptions about the
                                     growth in demand for tourist accommodation/visitor dwellings
                                     and new supply.

                                     If demand for tourist accommodation/visitor dwellings
                                     outstrips supply, resident dwellings may increasingly be used
                                     by tourists/visitors and make these dwellings less affordable.
                                     Therefore, forecasting future tourism demand is important for
                                     determining the availability of future resident housing. This
                                     process and the findings are outlined in Section 6.4.3 below.




24
     Queensland Government dwelling projections are not used as they include visitor dwellings. Household
projections and household type projections sourced from the Queensland Government provide projections
only for resident households, and therefore resident dwellings only. Visitor dwellings are separately
analysed in this methodology.




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